Welcome back football fans! The heat of the summer has hit us full bore in the midwest, and that can only mean one thing: college football is right around the corner. Over the next few weeks we will bring you the normal complement of preview articles covering each conference in FBS football. Before we jump into what may happen in the autumn, we have a lot to talk about since we broke camp with Alabama raising the crystal football. The biggest news on the block coming right out of the BCS bowls was the potential of Big Ten expansion. But what ended up happening when the Pac-10 starting pushing the issue forever changed college football.
When the Big Ten started sending out feelers about schools to add, the most likely candidates included Rutgers, Syracuse, Nebraska, Missouri, Notre Dame, and (if the door was open) Texas. While the Big Ten sent up smoke signals indicating that they were considering becoming a mega-conference of 14 to 16 teams, the Pac-10 decided to move first in the game by offering membership to Colorado and the Big XII South division sans Baylor. This was enough impetus to force the Big Ten's hand, who took on Nebraska alone. In the end, this move ends up being the most brilliant of all the major conference moves. The Big Ten now has twelve teams, another football historic powerhouse, another strong academic school, and a farther reach into the core of the country. Down the road the Big Ten may nab more teams from the Big East to force Notre Dame out of independence, but for now, moving to 12 like everyone else was a great move...and Nebraska had to be choice number 1 without Texas or Notre Dame on the table.
Meanwhile over in the Pac-10, the Texas and Oklahoma schools were apparently offered a deal they could not refuse from the weak 5 teams left hanging in the balance. So the Pac-10 offered membership to Utah, who will make a nice travel partner with Colorado. Utah finally got what it has always craved, which is BCS legitimacy. While the Pac-10 did not fare quite as well as the Big Ten overall, you have to like the movement toward more conference championship games. One would figure that the Big XII will seek two more teams next offseason, and that would create 5 BCS twelve team conferences for a nice balance. For the time being, we have a cute situation developing where the Big XII has 10 teams for 2011 and the Big Ten has twelve teams for 2011. Maybe a full swap of intellectual property rights is in order? However, it does appear that the Big XII will not stand pat because money drives Texas and two mroe teams brings in more money, especially if the teams are SEC schools. I believe the next move will be a stunning LSU and TCU to the Big XII, which will leave the SEC to grab Miami or Florida State or Clemson. Although things certainly happen quickly when the dominoes fall, there may not be any more movement until 2012 while the current changes shake out.
The minor move that actually got a bit swept under the rug is Boise State bolting the WAC to the MWC, which made the Mountain West truly more relevant than the Big East until Utah bolted for the Pac-10. Boise State may be a better program at the moment, but Utah was a key piece to long term BCS busting. TCU, BYU, and Boise State will now hope for the best as all the true BCS busters have come together in one conference. What the Boise State move does to the WAC is the downside of realignment. Like the Big East last time, the WAC just became about as relevant as the MAC and the Sun Belt, which is to say...if FBS football wanted to cull 40 teams from the ranks there is no question which three leagues would be the first to go. However, that should not stop those teams from jumping for joy at a new lease on life and cofnerence championships. It is not healthy for one team to dominate a conference, both for the team and for the conference. So perhaps in the long run this will work out. However WAC fans, I feel for you.
So that leaves us with the big question for 2011. How exactly will the Pac-10 and Big Ten split their divisions? For the left coast, the most logical arrangement would be North-South with Washington State, Washington, Oregon, Oregon State in the North and UCLA, USC, Arizona State, and Arizona in the south. It's a close debate where the other two travel pairs go, but I think splitting california is key so I'd put Stanford and Cal in the north and Utah and Colorado in the south. More crazy ideas include splitting every travel partner to ensure a trip to southern california every other year, but I think recruiting needs to take a backseat to common sense. The Pac-10 is known for their travel partner rivalries and this is no time to break a good system. North-South is the split here.
Over in the midwest, one of the biggest debates over the past 20 year has been what do you do to split the league geographically if Notre Dame joins. Having three teams in Indiana, two in Michigan, and two in Illinois made the split weird any way. However, with a clear west team joining in Nebraska, the split is obvious. The Big Ten will debate some plans, but the upshot is the only logical way to break is East-West. The East will have Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana, Purdue, Ohio State, and Penn State. The West will have Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, and Northwestern. Some people want to split the trio of PSU, UM, and OSU for power reasons, but the only way to do this in a decent way would be to trade the Michigan schools for the Illinois duo. However, the end of season rivalries are clearly preserved in the East-West I propose, as well as most of the other important current rivalries like OSU-PSU, Iowa-Minnesota, Iowa-Wisconsin, and Michigan-MSU. If the Big Ten meetings come up with anything else, I'll be shocked. There's no reason to exacerbate travel in an already expansive conference by somehow joining Happy Valley or Columbus with either Minneapolis or Lincoln. On the bright side, the Big Ten will make lots of money no matter what they decide.
Most of realignment is looking ahead, so let's take a look at the past to balance things out. As it turns out, the magical USC-Texas championship battle from five seasons ago is now going down as a farce as USC has been slapped with major sanctions for paying Reggie Bush improper benefits. In the most classless move outside of a television show called "The Decision," Pete Carroll left what he knew was a sinking ship to drown while he rakes in the big bucks in Seattle on the pro level. So now USC will move on with Lane Kiffin, who bolts Tennessee after only one tumultuous year. Lane Kiffin now has the unenviable challenge of saving USC on the way down without being able to bring in as much talent in big numbers as before. Additionally, the ban against celebrities on the sidelines will have a huge effect on the USC tradition of recent years. Every dynasty in college football comes to an end, and just like Miami and perhaps Florida, USC's time has come and gone. The Trojans will also not be bowl bound this year, which will be quite different. However, watching Oregon in the BCS last season was a refreshing change and I look forward to the conference race in 2010.
Speaking of Oregon, the other major discipline-related storyline is the continued problems at Oregon. While it seemed that the Ducks had turned around their problems which centered on LeGarrett Blount's sucker-punch at the end of the Boise State loss by making their first Rose Bowl in decades, the lingering issues resurfaced in a hurry after the Rose Bowl loss. The most striking problem is that their Heisman candidate quarterback Jeremiah Masoli has now been kicked off the team for burglarizing a frat house and a marijuana possession charge. The star freshman running back who replaced Blount was LaMichael James, who pled guilty to a harassment charge based on a domestic violence-type altercation, leading to his suspension for the opener. All of a sudden the high octane offense that was supposed to roll to a Rose Bowl win not only got embarrassed by the Buckeyes, they will basically be gutted by the off-field problems. Hopefully the Pac-10 favorites can reload in a tough situation, but this and the USC situation have the Pac-10 more open than any other major conference race in FBS football. 2010 will be a pleasure to watch, assuming the news is on the field and not off the field (or sucker punched after a game).
So that's where we stand after a tumultuous offseason. There will be some new faces in familiar places like Jimbo Fisher taking over for the legend Bobby Bowden. Other coaching stories such as Kiffin at USC, Rich Rodriguez at Michigan, and Urban Meyer at Florida will all be key components to a 2010 season full of drama. Although I'm certainly not spilling the beans on the SCS Top 25 preseason poll due out next month, you know the college football world is in a good place when Boise State could legitimately be the strongest team in America. Perhaps the WAC can celebrate a national title before their only true contender goes away. And with that, we're off! See you in a week or two with the first preview articles.
As always, you can contact me at david@southerncollegesports.com with any questions, concerns, or rants. I appreciate hearing from you the readers what you would like to see more or less of around these parts.
Saturday, July 17, 2010
Wednesday, January 6, 2010
2009 Bowl Preview Part VIII: BCS Championship
BCS National Championship
Texas vs. Alabama
1/7
It's been a long road to the championship, but we have a mega-matchup as the Longhorns and the Crimson Tide converge on Pasadena. The Longhorns really started this road last year as they were snubbed in favor of an Oklahoma team they beat in the regular season for the national title game, and they responded with a come-from-behind victory in the Fiesta Bowl against Ohio State. Colt McCoy and company came into this season determined to prove they should have played Florida last year, and things started easy with 4 blowout wins and a convincing ten point win against Texas Tech. Then came the battle with Oklahoma, which Texas won despite playing very terrible thanks in large part to Sam Bradford's injury. However, Texas escaped which was all that mattered. No game for the rest of the season ended up close until the Big XII Championship, where Nebraska came in as a huge underdog. However, the country had underestimated the Cornhuskers defense and Nebraska thought they had won the game when the officials put one second back on the clock and allowed Texas to kick a game-winning field goal. So while TCU, Cincinnati, and Boise State groaned collectively, Texas escaped and has completed the long journey back to the national championship.
One might say this journey also started last year for Alabama as well, but not with a win. Alabama was the only undefeated major-conference team in the country last year going into the SEC Championship and the Crimson Tide held a 10 point lead in the fourth quarter against the Gators. Then it all fell apart as Tim Tebow crushed Alabama's dream season and the Sugar Bowl showed a very unmotivated Crimson Tide losing to undefeated Utah. However, Alabama circled the wagons and pointed to this year's SEC championship, vowing to take their best shot at Tebow and the Gators. The season started with a bang with a neutral-site win over Virginia Tech, and no real tests emerged until a late October home game against Tennessee. Much like Texas, Alabama had their championship-saving moment when the Crimson Tide needed to block two field goals to survive with a two-point win. Alabama also struggled against their rival Auburn, but both of these games were simply lead ups to the showdowns against LSU and Florida. Each of which Alabama handled without much fanfare, disposing of LSU by 9 and dismantling the Gators by 19. So Alabama has accomplished what they set out to do, but you know they understand it's been a long time since the Crimson Tide has won a national championship and these opportunities do not come along often.
Getting to the battle on the field, a solid Texas offense must overcome a very stingy Alabama defense if the Longhorns are to win this game. QB Colt McCoy returned vowing to lead the Longhorns to another title in Pasadena like four years ago, and he has lived up to the hype more than the two men who beat him for the past two Heisman trophies (Bradford and Tebow). McCoy thre for over 3500 yards and added another 400 on the ground. McCoy has been able to avoid a lot of sacks with his mobility, but the offensive line did have some issues at times this season. McCoy will target WR Jordan Shipley most of the time, but he has 5 other receivers he can throw to confidently. also look for RB Tre Newton to take some pressure off McCoy by keeping the Crimson Tide defense honest. The Crimson Tide defense is matched only by TCU as the best in the country, led by a tremendous backfield. LB Ronaldo McClain is just as likely to sack a quarterback as he is to read the eyes and intercept a ball, while Javier Arenas and Mark Barron are shut-down defenders in the secondary. This poses a great challenge to McCoy, who struggled mightily against the only other two teams with a defense in the same ballpark as Alabama, OU holding the Horns to 16 points and Nebraska holding them to 12. Even though Alabama looks like the perfect foil to the Texas offense, never count out McCoy in a big game just finding a way to win.
Once Alabama has the ball, the look will be a bit different despite also having a potent offense themselves. Instead of passing the ball a lot, the Crimson Tide are driven by their running game and especially Heisman-winner RB Mark Ingram. Ingram racked up 15 scores and 1500 yards despite having a couple very poor games in the SEC season. Alabama's offensive line is great in opening holes and also in pass protections, as Greg McElroy has had plenty of time to develop into a great quarterback this season. McElroy also has a host of receiving targets, led by Julio Jones. The Longhorns will not be awed by the Alabama offense though, as Texas was very strong against the run this season. The defensive front produced a great pass rush and 41 sacks, led by Sam Acho and Lamarr Houston. The defensive backfield benefitted from this pressure on opposing quarterbacks by picking off 24 balls. Each safety Earl Thomas and Blake Gideon will be watching McElroy like hawks and waiting to pounce on any mistake. The battle will come down to whether Texas can get a push on the great Alabama offensive line. If the Longhorns can, then Alabama could make the mistakes they made against Auburn and Tennessee.
Each team benefits from some great special teams play. The kickers match up very nicely as the Longhorns rely on Hunter Lawrence (22/25 on field goals) while Alabama puts faith in Leigh Tiffin (29/33 this year). Texas relies equally in punting on sophomore Justin Tucker and junior John Gold. Meanwhile, P.J. Fitzgerald is one of the best punters in the country for Alabama, netting over 42 yards per punt. There's no clear winner, although one would expect Fitzgerald to give Alabama slightly better field position if the game turns into a defensive slugfest. However, both placekickers are absolutely clutch when they need to be, which is all that matters in a game like this.
Urban Meyer became the first coach in the BCS era to win a second championship last season, and either Mack Brown or Nick Saban will join him at the top of the list following this game. While other coaches like Pete Carroll and Jim Tressel may get more attention, both Brown and Saban have done what they do best and that is build championship programs. Before Vince Young came along, Texas was always playing second-fiddle to Oklahoma, but now Brown seems to be king of the Big XII with a balanced offense and a strong defense. Meanwhile, Saban builds winners like they do int the north with a strong running game and a killer defense. This is almost a carbon copy of the LSU team which Saban led to the championship in 2004, but Mack Brown also has to like the comparisons between Colt McCoy and Vince Young. Pasadena is hallowed ground for Texas and will become legendary for them is they win both their national titles on that Rose Bowl turf. Neither coach will shirk from the battle, but Saban seems to be just a bit better in big games.
As previously mentioned, Texas has owned the Rose Bowl with two wins and a national championship on this field in the last 5 years. However, both games were instant classics and this one would likely fit the bill if the Longhorns can upset the Crimson Tide. Unlike some seasons where one team rolls all year while another survives many scares, each of these teams is truly battle tested. Alabama has definitely showed up for their biggest games, and it is hard to believe they will not arrive like last year's Sugar Bowl. However, Texas has been dominant in bowl games the past five years, always finding a way to win. No extra motivation is needed, but Alabama certainly may have a bit more to overcome the Heisman jinx and to represent the SEC well with a fourth-straight national championship. The intangibles slightly favor Alabama.
So how will it all come down to pass in Pasadena? This is probably the best match up we've seen since Texas-USC four years ago, so this whole BCS thing is working out for the Rose Bowl (nabbing a great traditional game between Oregon and OSU also helps). Both teams will likely have some struggles given the defensive strength, which means Alabama should be able to squeak out a little bit of field position war to win the battle. However, Texas will jump on any mistake and needs to be put away by more than 7 points in the fourth quarter, as McCoy will lead this team to victory otherwise. Look for Texas to break a couple big plays early, but the Alabama will shut down the Longhorn offense and grind out 3 or 4 unanswered scoring drives to take the lead. Then Alabama will bleed the clock and keep McCoy off the field in the crucial back half of the fourth quarter, leading to a 6 point victory for the Crimson Tide and their first championship since 1993.
Texas vs. Alabama
1/7
It's been a long road to the championship, but we have a mega-matchup as the Longhorns and the Crimson Tide converge on Pasadena. The Longhorns really started this road last year as they were snubbed in favor of an Oklahoma team they beat in the regular season for the national title game, and they responded with a come-from-behind victory in the Fiesta Bowl against Ohio State. Colt McCoy and company came into this season determined to prove they should have played Florida last year, and things started easy with 4 blowout wins and a convincing ten point win against Texas Tech. Then came the battle with Oklahoma, which Texas won despite playing very terrible thanks in large part to Sam Bradford's injury. However, Texas escaped which was all that mattered. No game for the rest of the season ended up close until the Big XII Championship, where Nebraska came in as a huge underdog. However, the country had underestimated the Cornhuskers defense and Nebraska thought they had won the game when the officials put one second back on the clock and allowed Texas to kick a game-winning field goal. So while TCU, Cincinnati, and Boise State groaned collectively, Texas escaped and has completed the long journey back to the national championship.
One might say this journey also started last year for Alabama as well, but not with a win. Alabama was the only undefeated major-conference team in the country last year going into the SEC Championship and the Crimson Tide held a 10 point lead in the fourth quarter against the Gators. Then it all fell apart as Tim Tebow crushed Alabama's dream season and the Sugar Bowl showed a very unmotivated Crimson Tide losing to undefeated Utah. However, Alabama circled the wagons and pointed to this year's SEC championship, vowing to take their best shot at Tebow and the Gators. The season started with a bang with a neutral-site win over Virginia Tech, and no real tests emerged until a late October home game against Tennessee. Much like Texas, Alabama had their championship-saving moment when the Crimson Tide needed to block two field goals to survive with a two-point win. Alabama also struggled against their rival Auburn, but both of these games were simply lead ups to the showdowns against LSU and Florida. Each of which Alabama handled without much fanfare, disposing of LSU by 9 and dismantling the Gators by 19. So Alabama has accomplished what they set out to do, but you know they understand it's been a long time since the Crimson Tide has won a national championship and these opportunities do not come along often.
Getting to the battle on the field, a solid Texas offense must overcome a very stingy Alabama defense if the Longhorns are to win this game. QB Colt McCoy returned vowing to lead the Longhorns to another title in Pasadena like four years ago, and he has lived up to the hype more than the two men who beat him for the past two Heisman trophies (Bradford and Tebow). McCoy thre for over 3500 yards and added another 400 on the ground. McCoy has been able to avoid a lot of sacks with his mobility, but the offensive line did have some issues at times this season. McCoy will target WR Jordan Shipley most of the time, but he has 5 other receivers he can throw to confidently. also look for RB Tre Newton to take some pressure off McCoy by keeping the Crimson Tide defense honest. The Crimson Tide defense is matched only by TCU as the best in the country, led by a tremendous backfield. LB Ronaldo McClain is just as likely to sack a quarterback as he is to read the eyes and intercept a ball, while Javier Arenas and Mark Barron are shut-down defenders in the secondary. This poses a great challenge to McCoy, who struggled mightily against the only other two teams with a defense in the same ballpark as Alabama, OU holding the Horns to 16 points and Nebraska holding them to 12. Even though Alabama looks like the perfect foil to the Texas offense, never count out McCoy in a big game just finding a way to win.
Once Alabama has the ball, the look will be a bit different despite also having a potent offense themselves. Instead of passing the ball a lot, the Crimson Tide are driven by their running game and especially Heisman-winner RB Mark Ingram. Ingram racked up 15 scores and 1500 yards despite having a couple very poor games in the SEC season. Alabama's offensive line is great in opening holes and also in pass protections, as Greg McElroy has had plenty of time to develop into a great quarterback this season. McElroy also has a host of receiving targets, led by Julio Jones. The Longhorns will not be awed by the Alabama offense though, as Texas was very strong against the run this season. The defensive front produced a great pass rush and 41 sacks, led by Sam Acho and Lamarr Houston. The defensive backfield benefitted from this pressure on opposing quarterbacks by picking off 24 balls. Each safety Earl Thomas and Blake Gideon will be watching McElroy like hawks and waiting to pounce on any mistake. The battle will come down to whether Texas can get a push on the great Alabama offensive line. If the Longhorns can, then Alabama could make the mistakes they made against Auburn and Tennessee.
Each team benefits from some great special teams play. The kickers match up very nicely as the Longhorns rely on Hunter Lawrence (22/25 on field goals) while Alabama puts faith in Leigh Tiffin (29/33 this year). Texas relies equally in punting on sophomore Justin Tucker and junior John Gold. Meanwhile, P.J. Fitzgerald is one of the best punters in the country for Alabama, netting over 42 yards per punt. There's no clear winner, although one would expect Fitzgerald to give Alabama slightly better field position if the game turns into a defensive slugfest. However, both placekickers are absolutely clutch when they need to be, which is all that matters in a game like this.
Urban Meyer became the first coach in the BCS era to win a second championship last season, and either Mack Brown or Nick Saban will join him at the top of the list following this game. While other coaches like Pete Carroll and Jim Tressel may get more attention, both Brown and Saban have done what they do best and that is build championship programs. Before Vince Young came along, Texas was always playing second-fiddle to Oklahoma, but now Brown seems to be king of the Big XII with a balanced offense and a strong defense. Meanwhile, Saban builds winners like they do int the north with a strong running game and a killer defense. This is almost a carbon copy of the LSU team which Saban led to the championship in 2004, but Mack Brown also has to like the comparisons between Colt McCoy and Vince Young. Pasadena is hallowed ground for Texas and will become legendary for them is they win both their national titles on that Rose Bowl turf. Neither coach will shirk from the battle, but Saban seems to be just a bit better in big games.
As previously mentioned, Texas has owned the Rose Bowl with two wins and a national championship on this field in the last 5 years. However, both games were instant classics and this one would likely fit the bill if the Longhorns can upset the Crimson Tide. Unlike some seasons where one team rolls all year while another survives many scares, each of these teams is truly battle tested. Alabama has definitely showed up for their biggest games, and it is hard to believe they will not arrive like last year's Sugar Bowl. However, Texas has been dominant in bowl games the past five years, always finding a way to win. No extra motivation is needed, but Alabama certainly may have a bit more to overcome the Heisman jinx and to represent the SEC well with a fourth-straight national championship. The intangibles slightly favor Alabama.
So how will it all come down to pass in Pasadena? This is probably the best match up we've seen since Texas-USC four years ago, so this whole BCS thing is working out for the Rose Bowl (nabbing a great traditional game between Oregon and OSU also helps). Both teams will likely have some struggles given the defensive strength, which means Alabama should be able to squeak out a little bit of field position war to win the battle. However, Texas will jump on any mistake and needs to be put away by more than 7 points in the fourth quarter, as McCoy will lead this team to victory otherwise. Look for Texas to break a couple big plays early, but the Alabama will shut down the Longhorn offense and grind out 3 or 4 unanswered scoring drives to take the lead. Then Alabama will bleed the clock and keep McCoy off the field in the crucial back half of the fourth quarter, leading to a 6 point victory for the Crimson Tide and their first championship since 1993.
Sunday, January 3, 2010
2009 Bowl Preview Part VII
Fiesta Bowl
Boise State vs. TCU
1/4
Although each of these non-BCS schools cracked the BCS this season to become the first twosome of non-BCS schools to do so in the same year in BCS history, some players on both sides were not really thrilled to see this game pop up for the Fiesta Bowl. However, this will be the first time two undefeated teams will play in a non-championship game, and these two played last year in the bowl season when Boise State got snubbed by the BCS at 12-0. TCU won that battle and looks to be a prohibitive favorite here in their own first BCS appearance, while Boise will be looking to build on a god BCS resume. Boise State started the year with a dominant win over Pac-10 champ Oregon and the Broncos rolled to 13-0 from there. A close game at Tulsa was the only other real threat as the Broncos keep racking up regular season wins. Meanwhile in Texas, the Horned Frogs survived a tough September road test at Clemson and then rolled through the MWC trifecta of Air Force, Utah, and BYU without much trouble. Last season the final score was 17-16 TCU, and this game could be just as close on a much bigger stage.
Boise State's offense has been prolific as usual this season. The Broncos put up over 40 points per game and are led by spectacular QB Kellen Moore. Moore has 39 touchdowns and 3 interceptions this season, which is pretty unbelievable. However, none of the defenses BSU played were anywhere near as good as TCU's defense. Moore also gets a lot of help from his running game, led by RB Jeremy Avery and RB Doug Martin. The Horned Frogs defense is led by DE Jerry Hughes, who will certainly disrupt the Boise State offensive line. Hughes and his fellow defensive lineman are the primary force behind a defense that was #2 in the nation last season and is the top ranked defense statistically this year. TCU shut down very good offenses in Clemson, BYU, and Utah, each of which had great balance. So don't expect the Horned Frogs to roll over, but Boise State may be able to learn from last season and put up more points than 16. The key will certainly be whether Avery and Martin can find enough running lanes through the TCU defensive front to keep Boise State balanced and unpredictable.
When TCU has the ball, look for a balanced offense but also a ball-hawking grinding rushing offense. TCU succeeded last year against the Broncos by limiting the amount of time Kellen Moore could be on the field, and there's no reason to think TCU will use a different strategy this bowl season. QB Andy Dalton has thrown for nearly 2500 yards and rushed for over 500 yards. Jospeh Turner and Matthew Tucker also split carries and keep each other's legs fresh. Boise State had a much better defense than a year ago, but the Broncos will be challenged to stop the TCU running game in this game. However, look for Boise State to stay strong against any throws Dalton attempts, especially if he throws anywhere near star CB Kyle Wilson. Wilson is also a return specialist, so he has no trouble catching the ball in case Dalton is errant. Just like the battle on the other side of the ball, it appears this match up will come down to whether the Bronco defensive line can step up and slow the Horned Frogs rushing game.
The aforemtnioned Kyle Wilson will be the most important player on the special teams in this game. As proven by Oregon in the Rose Bowl, a good kick returner can go a long way to keeping a thoroughly dominated team in the mix. As TCU seems to have the better defense in this one, Boise State will need to capitalize and find good field position to keep up. TCU kicker Ross Evans was very accurate hitting 14 of 17 field goal attempts. As for coaches, it really does not get much better than Gary Patterson and Chris Petersen, each of which seem very happy to stay and build their programs more while busting BCS expectations. Petersen has been here before, but Patterson will not be awed by the big spotlight. This will be a great chance for two good coaches to show off their play-calling prowess.
It will be intriguing to see if Boise State steps up and shocks the world again. Admittedly, TCU would rather be playing Texas or Alabama, but the Horned Frogs have a lot on the line in national respect and possibly a split national title. Meanwhile, Boise State would like to prove that leaving them out in a 12-0 season is a terrible mistake. The Broncos will score more than 20, but the problem is that the Horned Frogs will have just enough offense to overcome that total. TCU wins another close one and their first BCS bowl by 3.
Orange Bowl
Georgia Tech vs. Iowa
1/5
Although each of these teams dealt with some late November disappointment, each must be happy to recover in a BCS destination, especially Miami. Georgia Tech finally broke through in the ACC despite an early loss to Miami thanks largely in part to being a preparation nightmare in 6 days for most teams. Paul Johnson has brough his triple option attack to a school that has a huge southern recruiting base. Although the Yellowjackets played in a lot of close games, they usually dictated the temp of these games. Meanwhile on the Midwestern plains, Iowa was having a dream season for the first two months, escaping fourth quarter deficits eight times in a 9-0 start. The most dramatic win came on the very last play of the game at Michigan State. In fact, Iowa pulled the next four toughest teams in the conference as road games, but swept through East Lansing, Madison, and Happy Valley without skipping a beat. However, injuries were always a problem for the Hakweyes and losing QB Ricky Stanzi for the season in the Northwestern game was too much to overcome. Iowa also lost their Rose Bowl shot in an overtime loss at Columbus, but their results against the toughest road schedule in the country earned them a berth here.
The much more heralded match up of this game will be the Yellowjackets offense against the Iowa defense. Georgia Tech ranks 11th in the country in offense and scoring, while Iowa's defense also ranks 11th in defense and 10th in scoring allowed. Georgia Tech runs an option-based attack out of a wishbone formation, so look for a lot of runs all night long followed by some big play action passes. QB Josh Nesbitt ran for nearly 1000 yards and 18 touchdowns while also throwing for 1600 yards. When Nesbitt gives the ball away, it usually goes to RB Jonathan Dwyer on the edges, which tests a defense and how they adjust in the open field. The Hawkeyes are led on defense by a pair of excellent linebackers Pat Angerer and A.J. Edds. These two and the defensive line will be a key to pushing back on the great Yellowjacket offensive line and making the correct tackling decisions against the option. While Iowa has not faced a true option team this season, they did see a few wishbone style plays in their final two games and did very well against it. While the option offense is tough to prepare for in one week, with 4 weeks to prepare Iowa will be ready and it will all be a matter of execution.
When Iowa has the ball, the Hawkeyes will be very happy that 6 weeks have passed since they last had to step on the field so that key players can return from injury. QB Ricky Stanzi and RB Adam Robinson will both start in the Orange Bowl, which allows Iowa to use the full playbook for the first time since October. Stanzi is prone to throwing interceptions with 14 on the season, but he also has a killer instinct in the fourth quarter, leading the Hawkeyes to just enough offense in every game of a 9-0 start. Robinson is a tough runner who will likely be the focus against a Georgia Tech defense that is prone to give up some yards in the running game. When Robinson is not in the game, look for backup RB Brandon Wegher to be a change-of-pace back that speeds the tempo up a bit. Iowa will have to set up their offense the same way as Georgia Tech to be successful, that being run first pass later. Nevertheless, if the game is close late, don't count out Stanzi and a wide-open passing game.
Each kicker has had some serious misfires this season, but Iowa likely has an edge in special teams thanks to Daniel Murray. As for coaching, this is a battle between two of the better coaches in America in Kirk Ferentz and Paul Johnson. Johnson is a system coach, but unlike a quarterback, that's not an insult. Johnson has a system that is so different and hard to prepare for, but the Yellowjackets do not have such a huge advantage in bowl games for obvious reasons. Ferentz has had many chances to jump to the pros or other programs, but he believes in his program and the results have been outstanding considering the problems Iowa has recruiting and luring elite talent. Ferentz has the experience against big time bowl teams LSU and USC and his teams are almost always ready as Iowa is one of the better Big Ten bowl teams over the past decade.
This game is so even on paper that the intangibles could come into play. Iowa is very happy to be here considering how they finished the season, and the Hawkeyes are hungry to exact a bit of redemption for their only other BCS appearance, a loss to USC in the Orange Bowl seven years ago. This is Tech's first BCS appearance, and the Yellowjackets will be looking to improve on the conference's 2-9 BCS record. Considerign how well the Big Ten has played this bowl season (3-3, but all the losses were very close), you have to imagine Iowa is a little better than the country gives them credit for. With the extra time to prepare, I think Iowa will shut down the option running offense for most of the game and give Stanzi enough time to win another "ugly" game. Iowa by 4.
Boise State vs. TCU
1/4
Although each of these non-BCS schools cracked the BCS this season to become the first twosome of non-BCS schools to do so in the same year in BCS history, some players on both sides were not really thrilled to see this game pop up for the Fiesta Bowl. However, this will be the first time two undefeated teams will play in a non-championship game, and these two played last year in the bowl season when Boise State got snubbed by the BCS at 12-0. TCU won that battle and looks to be a prohibitive favorite here in their own first BCS appearance, while Boise will be looking to build on a god BCS resume. Boise State started the year with a dominant win over Pac-10 champ Oregon and the Broncos rolled to 13-0 from there. A close game at Tulsa was the only other real threat as the Broncos keep racking up regular season wins. Meanwhile in Texas, the Horned Frogs survived a tough September road test at Clemson and then rolled through the MWC trifecta of Air Force, Utah, and BYU without much trouble. Last season the final score was 17-16 TCU, and this game could be just as close on a much bigger stage.
Boise State's offense has been prolific as usual this season. The Broncos put up over 40 points per game and are led by spectacular QB Kellen Moore. Moore has 39 touchdowns and 3 interceptions this season, which is pretty unbelievable. However, none of the defenses BSU played were anywhere near as good as TCU's defense. Moore also gets a lot of help from his running game, led by RB Jeremy Avery and RB Doug Martin. The Horned Frogs defense is led by DE Jerry Hughes, who will certainly disrupt the Boise State offensive line. Hughes and his fellow defensive lineman are the primary force behind a defense that was #2 in the nation last season and is the top ranked defense statistically this year. TCU shut down very good offenses in Clemson, BYU, and Utah, each of which had great balance. So don't expect the Horned Frogs to roll over, but Boise State may be able to learn from last season and put up more points than 16. The key will certainly be whether Avery and Martin can find enough running lanes through the TCU defensive front to keep Boise State balanced and unpredictable.
When TCU has the ball, look for a balanced offense but also a ball-hawking grinding rushing offense. TCU succeeded last year against the Broncos by limiting the amount of time Kellen Moore could be on the field, and there's no reason to think TCU will use a different strategy this bowl season. QB Andy Dalton has thrown for nearly 2500 yards and rushed for over 500 yards. Jospeh Turner and Matthew Tucker also split carries and keep each other's legs fresh. Boise State had a much better defense than a year ago, but the Broncos will be challenged to stop the TCU running game in this game. However, look for Boise State to stay strong against any throws Dalton attempts, especially if he throws anywhere near star CB Kyle Wilson. Wilson is also a return specialist, so he has no trouble catching the ball in case Dalton is errant. Just like the battle on the other side of the ball, it appears this match up will come down to whether the Bronco defensive line can step up and slow the Horned Frogs rushing game.
The aforemtnioned Kyle Wilson will be the most important player on the special teams in this game. As proven by Oregon in the Rose Bowl, a good kick returner can go a long way to keeping a thoroughly dominated team in the mix. As TCU seems to have the better defense in this one, Boise State will need to capitalize and find good field position to keep up. TCU kicker Ross Evans was very accurate hitting 14 of 17 field goal attempts. As for coaches, it really does not get much better than Gary Patterson and Chris Petersen, each of which seem very happy to stay and build their programs more while busting BCS expectations. Petersen has been here before, but Patterson will not be awed by the big spotlight. This will be a great chance for two good coaches to show off their play-calling prowess.
It will be intriguing to see if Boise State steps up and shocks the world again. Admittedly, TCU would rather be playing Texas or Alabama, but the Horned Frogs have a lot on the line in national respect and possibly a split national title. Meanwhile, Boise State would like to prove that leaving them out in a 12-0 season is a terrible mistake. The Broncos will score more than 20, but the problem is that the Horned Frogs will have just enough offense to overcome that total. TCU wins another close one and their first BCS bowl by 3.
Orange Bowl
Georgia Tech vs. Iowa
1/5
Although each of these teams dealt with some late November disappointment, each must be happy to recover in a BCS destination, especially Miami. Georgia Tech finally broke through in the ACC despite an early loss to Miami thanks largely in part to being a preparation nightmare in 6 days for most teams. Paul Johnson has brough his triple option attack to a school that has a huge southern recruiting base. Although the Yellowjackets played in a lot of close games, they usually dictated the temp of these games. Meanwhile on the Midwestern plains, Iowa was having a dream season for the first two months, escaping fourth quarter deficits eight times in a 9-0 start. The most dramatic win came on the very last play of the game at Michigan State. In fact, Iowa pulled the next four toughest teams in the conference as road games, but swept through East Lansing, Madison, and Happy Valley without skipping a beat. However, injuries were always a problem for the Hakweyes and losing QB Ricky Stanzi for the season in the Northwestern game was too much to overcome. Iowa also lost their Rose Bowl shot in an overtime loss at Columbus, but their results against the toughest road schedule in the country earned them a berth here.
The much more heralded match up of this game will be the Yellowjackets offense against the Iowa defense. Georgia Tech ranks 11th in the country in offense and scoring, while Iowa's defense also ranks 11th in defense and 10th in scoring allowed. Georgia Tech runs an option-based attack out of a wishbone formation, so look for a lot of runs all night long followed by some big play action passes. QB Josh Nesbitt ran for nearly 1000 yards and 18 touchdowns while also throwing for 1600 yards. When Nesbitt gives the ball away, it usually goes to RB Jonathan Dwyer on the edges, which tests a defense and how they adjust in the open field. The Hawkeyes are led on defense by a pair of excellent linebackers Pat Angerer and A.J. Edds. These two and the defensive line will be a key to pushing back on the great Yellowjacket offensive line and making the correct tackling decisions against the option. While Iowa has not faced a true option team this season, they did see a few wishbone style plays in their final two games and did very well against it. While the option offense is tough to prepare for in one week, with 4 weeks to prepare Iowa will be ready and it will all be a matter of execution.
When Iowa has the ball, the Hawkeyes will be very happy that 6 weeks have passed since they last had to step on the field so that key players can return from injury. QB Ricky Stanzi and RB Adam Robinson will both start in the Orange Bowl, which allows Iowa to use the full playbook for the first time since October. Stanzi is prone to throwing interceptions with 14 on the season, but he also has a killer instinct in the fourth quarter, leading the Hawkeyes to just enough offense in every game of a 9-0 start. Robinson is a tough runner who will likely be the focus against a Georgia Tech defense that is prone to give up some yards in the running game. When Robinson is not in the game, look for backup RB Brandon Wegher to be a change-of-pace back that speeds the tempo up a bit. Iowa will have to set up their offense the same way as Georgia Tech to be successful, that being run first pass later. Nevertheless, if the game is close late, don't count out Stanzi and a wide-open passing game.
Each kicker has had some serious misfires this season, but Iowa likely has an edge in special teams thanks to Daniel Murray. As for coaching, this is a battle between two of the better coaches in America in Kirk Ferentz and Paul Johnson. Johnson is a system coach, but unlike a quarterback, that's not an insult. Johnson has a system that is so different and hard to prepare for, but the Yellowjackets do not have such a huge advantage in bowl games for obvious reasons. Ferentz has had many chances to jump to the pros or other programs, but he believes in his program and the results have been outstanding considering the problems Iowa has recruiting and luring elite talent. Ferentz has the experience against big time bowl teams LSU and USC and his teams are almost always ready as Iowa is one of the better Big Ten bowl teams over the past decade.
This game is so even on paper that the intangibles could come into play. Iowa is very happy to be here considering how they finished the season, and the Hawkeyes are hungry to exact a bit of redemption for their only other BCS appearance, a loss to USC in the Orange Bowl seven years ago. This is Tech's first BCS appearance, and the Yellowjackets will be looking to improve on the conference's 2-9 BCS record. Considerign how well the Big Ten has played this bowl season (3-3, but all the losses were very close), you have to imagine Iowa is a little better than the country gives them credit for. With the extra time to prepare, I think Iowa will shut down the option running offense for most of the game and give Stanzi enough time to win another "ugly" game. Iowa by 4.
Friday, January 1, 2010
2009 Bowl Preview Part VI
International Bowl
South Florida vs. Northern Illinois
1/2
Each of these teams seemed destined for much better bowl destinations, but terrible November losing streaks ended up sending the Huskies and the Bulls up to Toronto for this January battle. South Florida has found a new leader for the future of their offense in freshman QB B.J. Daniels who replaced all-Big East senior Matt Grothe early in 2009. Daniels threw for 12 touchdowns and ran for nine more, as he led the team by over 200 yards in rushing. Daniels will target Carlton Mitchell, his top target most of the time when the passing game is used. However, the rushing game is where South Florida makes their living. The Huskies come into the game with a solid defense only giving up about 20 points per game. Look for the Northern Illinois defensive line to get some serious pressure on Daniels and perhaps keep the Huskeis in the game.
When the Huskies have the ball, the clock will tick away quickly as NIU loves to run the ball and does so very well. RB Chad Spann scored an astounding 20 touchdowns on the ground this year, while backup Me'co Brown had 650 yards of his own. Once the running game gets going, look for Chandler Harnish to take advantage in the play-action passing game. However, the Bulls defense comes into this game with a couple future pros on the defensive line in George Selvie and Jason Pierre-Paul. Look for Selvie to really overpower whomever is assigned to him from Northern Illinois, and his dominance should lead to a mistake or two at a critical time by the Huskies. South Florida will be able to stop the one-dimensional Huskies, but NIU will keep it close with their own defense. The mismatch in talent will prove too much as South Florida wins by 13.
PapaJohns.com Bowl
South Carolina vs. Connecticut
1/2
Two teams taking completely different paths end up meeting in Birmingham as the middling SEC Gamecocks meet the resilient Big East Huskies. Steve Spurrier has never quite gotten USC over the hump in the SEC, but this season showed improvement and promise from a young nucleus of stars. Sophomore Stephen Garcia ended with more than 2700 passing yards and 17 touchdowns to lead the Gamecock offense. Garcia will spread the ball around a lot but his favorite receiver is another young gun, freshman Alshon Jeffery. Although the offensive line played fairly well against strong SEC defenses, Garcia needs a lot of help as the running game is not working for the Gamecocks. Connecticut does give up a lot of yards on the ground, so perhaps USC can find a way to even get that part of the offense going. The Gamecocks offense will keep them in the game if nothing else.
Connecticut was all about rushing the ball this season, as Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon combined for over 2000 yards on the ground and 27 touchdowns. The big question mark for UCONN is quarterback, where Zach Frazer will get the nod here only because Cody Endres is out with a knee injury. The Huskies offense was certainly not a problem in 2009, but that could change in this game with the Gamecock defense. The Gamecocks did not score a lot of points but they did not need to because the defense kept them in most games. In fact, shutting down star athletes and running games was key to the Gamecocks victories over top 15 teams Clemson and Mississippi. Look for Spurrier's defense to stack the box against Todman and Dixon and force the Huskies into passing down situations. At this point it will simply be a matter of making plays against a Huskies offense with less talent than the Gamecocks defense. This game goes down to the wire, and UCONN pulls it out to honor Jasper Howard, their fallen teammate one more time. Huskies by 3.
Cotton Bowl
Oklahoma State vs. Mississippi
1/2
Though the Cotton Bowl stadium is not the venue anymore, new Cowboys Stadium will be a great venue for OSU and Mississippi to meet in a classic Big XII versus SEC battle. The Rebels are led by QB Jevan Snead, who only had two bad games all season in losses to South Carolina and Mississippi State. The Rebels also run the ball incredibly well with Dexter McCluster, who also catches a lot of balls coming out of the backfield. WR Shay Hodge is also a threat downfield to balance the Mississippi offense, which will be important as the Cowboys defense is stout against the run. Outside of an embarrassing 27 point defeat at the hands of Oklahoma (which could be pinned on the offense more than the defense), the defense has shut down or severly limited all the good offenses in the Big XII. Look for the Cowboys to bring some pressure from time to time to see if they can slow down McCluskey or force a mistake out of Snead. Mississippi should be able to avoid the rush with Snead at the helm, but you just never know when the Rebels offense will put up a bad game.
On the other side of the ball, Oklahoma State will hope that QB Zac Robinson is back to full strength after an ankle injury has limited him in pre-bowl practices. RB Keith Totson brought some balance to the offense this season and actually made the Cowboys more of a running team. Part of Oklahoma State's unexpected struggles on offense at times come from untimely drops and route-running mistakes by the receiving core. Although OSU will have a margin for error in this game, Mississippi will step up and shut any offense down for at least part of the game. The key for OSU will be to knock Mississippi onto their heels early and force Snead and company to pass the ball to get back in the game. This just is not likely to happen, so Mississippi wins this battle by 7.
Liberty Bowl
Arkansas vs. East Carolina
1/2
East Carolina makes a second straight entry into the Liberty Bowl as repeat champions of C-USA, and the Pirates are rewarded with a chance to rebound from last season's collapse in the second hald of this bowl game against Kentucky. East Carolina is led on offense by QB Patrick Pinkney. Pinkney played his best ball down the stretch, including a great 300 yard performance against Houston in the C-USA Championship game. East carolina has played against the big boys like Virginia Tech, so Arkansas having a defense that survived the SEC will not unduly impress the Pirates' offense. Especially considering Arkansas will be playing without two starting defenders in their backfield due to team rules violations. East Carolina should be able to pass the ball against Arkansas and score some points in this game.
When the Razorbacks have the ball, the spotlight will also be on a quarterback, namely Ryan Mallett, who took over the starting job after sitting out the transfer year from Michigan. Mallet is the best passing quarterback in the SEC, and he has produced a ridiculous 29 touchdown to 7 interception ratio. There are really no receiving or rushing stars, as four running backs and five wide receivers and tight ends split the duties. Mallet and coach Bobby Petrino know how to use their diverse talents in various situations to tear apart a defense. East Carolina does not have a great pass defense, which could be problematic against a talent like Mallet. If East Carolina's offense can keep Mallet off the field for long stretches at a time, the Pirates will have a legitimate shot at this win. Look for Mallet to rack up over 300 yards in the air as Arkansas outscores ECU by 17.
Alamo Bowl
Michigan State vs. Texas Tech
1/2
The Alamo Bowl finds itself with two teams absolutely racked with controversy since the end of the season. Michigan State has suspended nearly a quarter of the team after a dormitory brawl, while Texas Tech has been in the news the week of this game for firing coach Mike Leach for misconduct to players. The Red Raiders will need to see if defensive coordinator Ruffin McNeill can continue to run the high octane passing offense. Unlike the past few seasons, Tech did not have any superstars but patched together their usual passing yards with three quarterbacks and a slew of wide receivers. Taylor Potts should be the starting signal caller, and he will have a lot of opportunity to add to his 300 yards per game average. Look for the Spartans defense to struggle covering talented freshman receiver Alexander Torres, expecially with shutdown CB Chris Rucker suspended for this game. LB Greg Jones will be all over the field making plays and tackles, but Jones will not be able to shore up the poor MSU pass defense by himself.
The Spartans had one of the better offenses in the Big Ten, scoring nearly 30 points per game. QB Kirk Cousins is the leader of the offense, but he does split a little time with sophomore Keith Nichol. Cousins will struggle in this game with two of his starting receivers out on suspension and his top receiver Blair White fading fast at the end of his college career. The last time we saw Cousins, he struggled against Penn State's defense. Now he will have to find a way to get all ther young kids he's been working with for over a month in practice to defeat an underrated Tech defense. Texas Tech is very strong on the defensive front, which means MSU might not be able to turn to the running game. If this happens, the Spartans will have trouble keeping up. While the current controversy surrounding the firing of Mike Leach will affect the Red Raiders, this looks like the perfect opportunity for the Red Raiders to put all that behind them in a mismatch. Tech wins by 17.
GMAC Bowl
Central Michigan vs. Troy
1/6
The only non-BCS bowl game past January 2, the GMAC Bowl will stand as the final appetizer before the BCS Championship. Central Michigan comes into this game as the champions of the MAC, but with coach Butch Jones sniped to Cincinnati just like Brian Kelly was three seasons ago. In any event, Kelly and Jones have left a lasting legacy of domination for the Chippewas to build upon. The Chippewas have one of the bext scoring offenses in the country thanks to senior QB Dan LeFevour, who is one of the best quarterbacks in the country and will make some noise at the pro level. LeFevour gets to add to his record 147 passing and rushing career touchdowns with favorite targets senior WR Bryan Anderson and junior Antonio Brown. Outside of LeFevour, Central Michigan does not have much of a running game, which could be a problem since this game will be a shootout. The Troy defense has not been great, but their backfield did dominate the Sun Belt. Look for LeFevour to add three more touchdowns to his career total.
Troy takes a short bus trip down to Mobile after winning the Sun Belt conference yet again. Troy has built their own dominance like Central Michigan and like the Chippewas, the Trojans are on the verge of a top-25 ranking. Troy also has a superstar senior QB Levi Brown, who put up even better passing numbers than LeFevour this year but does not have the same prolific four-year career. Brown gets a little bit of help from freshman RB Shawn Southward and junior RB Dujuan Harris, which help the Trojans rack up the third most yards per game on offense. Central Michigan does not have a lie down defense by any means, but the Chippewas saw nothing down the stretch as good as their own offense, and that's exactly what Troy brings to the table. With Troy playing a couple hours from home, it will be itneresting to see if Central Michigan can deal with a strong offense and a road game bowl environment. Both of these programs are dominant and this is really a dream match up for a shootout January bowl game. Troy is slightly better on defense and has less distractions, so while CMU could certainly win this game, Troy will win by 4.
South Florida vs. Northern Illinois
1/2
Each of these teams seemed destined for much better bowl destinations, but terrible November losing streaks ended up sending the Huskies and the Bulls up to Toronto for this January battle. South Florida has found a new leader for the future of their offense in freshman QB B.J. Daniels who replaced all-Big East senior Matt Grothe early in 2009. Daniels threw for 12 touchdowns and ran for nine more, as he led the team by over 200 yards in rushing. Daniels will target Carlton Mitchell, his top target most of the time when the passing game is used. However, the rushing game is where South Florida makes their living. The Huskies come into the game with a solid defense only giving up about 20 points per game. Look for the Northern Illinois defensive line to get some serious pressure on Daniels and perhaps keep the Huskeis in the game.
When the Huskies have the ball, the clock will tick away quickly as NIU loves to run the ball and does so very well. RB Chad Spann scored an astounding 20 touchdowns on the ground this year, while backup Me'co Brown had 650 yards of his own. Once the running game gets going, look for Chandler Harnish to take advantage in the play-action passing game. However, the Bulls defense comes into this game with a couple future pros on the defensive line in George Selvie and Jason Pierre-Paul. Look for Selvie to really overpower whomever is assigned to him from Northern Illinois, and his dominance should lead to a mistake or two at a critical time by the Huskies. South Florida will be able to stop the one-dimensional Huskies, but NIU will keep it close with their own defense. The mismatch in talent will prove too much as South Florida wins by 13.
PapaJohns.com Bowl
South Carolina vs. Connecticut
1/2
Two teams taking completely different paths end up meeting in Birmingham as the middling SEC Gamecocks meet the resilient Big East Huskies. Steve Spurrier has never quite gotten USC over the hump in the SEC, but this season showed improvement and promise from a young nucleus of stars. Sophomore Stephen Garcia ended with more than 2700 passing yards and 17 touchdowns to lead the Gamecock offense. Garcia will spread the ball around a lot but his favorite receiver is another young gun, freshman Alshon Jeffery. Although the offensive line played fairly well against strong SEC defenses, Garcia needs a lot of help as the running game is not working for the Gamecocks. Connecticut does give up a lot of yards on the ground, so perhaps USC can find a way to even get that part of the offense going. The Gamecocks offense will keep them in the game if nothing else.
Connecticut was all about rushing the ball this season, as Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon combined for over 2000 yards on the ground and 27 touchdowns. The big question mark for UCONN is quarterback, where Zach Frazer will get the nod here only because Cody Endres is out with a knee injury. The Huskies offense was certainly not a problem in 2009, but that could change in this game with the Gamecock defense. The Gamecocks did not score a lot of points but they did not need to because the defense kept them in most games. In fact, shutting down star athletes and running games was key to the Gamecocks victories over top 15 teams Clemson and Mississippi. Look for Spurrier's defense to stack the box against Todman and Dixon and force the Huskies into passing down situations. At this point it will simply be a matter of making plays against a Huskies offense with less talent than the Gamecocks defense. This game goes down to the wire, and UCONN pulls it out to honor Jasper Howard, their fallen teammate one more time. Huskies by 3.
Cotton Bowl
Oklahoma State vs. Mississippi
1/2
Though the Cotton Bowl stadium is not the venue anymore, new Cowboys Stadium will be a great venue for OSU and Mississippi to meet in a classic Big XII versus SEC battle. The Rebels are led by QB Jevan Snead, who only had two bad games all season in losses to South Carolina and Mississippi State. The Rebels also run the ball incredibly well with Dexter McCluster, who also catches a lot of balls coming out of the backfield. WR Shay Hodge is also a threat downfield to balance the Mississippi offense, which will be important as the Cowboys defense is stout against the run. Outside of an embarrassing 27 point defeat at the hands of Oklahoma (which could be pinned on the offense more than the defense), the defense has shut down or severly limited all the good offenses in the Big XII. Look for the Cowboys to bring some pressure from time to time to see if they can slow down McCluskey or force a mistake out of Snead. Mississippi should be able to avoid the rush with Snead at the helm, but you just never know when the Rebels offense will put up a bad game.
On the other side of the ball, Oklahoma State will hope that QB Zac Robinson is back to full strength after an ankle injury has limited him in pre-bowl practices. RB Keith Totson brought some balance to the offense this season and actually made the Cowboys more of a running team. Part of Oklahoma State's unexpected struggles on offense at times come from untimely drops and route-running mistakes by the receiving core. Although OSU will have a margin for error in this game, Mississippi will step up and shut any offense down for at least part of the game. The key for OSU will be to knock Mississippi onto their heels early and force Snead and company to pass the ball to get back in the game. This just is not likely to happen, so Mississippi wins this battle by 7.
Liberty Bowl
Arkansas vs. East Carolina
1/2
East Carolina makes a second straight entry into the Liberty Bowl as repeat champions of C-USA, and the Pirates are rewarded with a chance to rebound from last season's collapse in the second hald of this bowl game against Kentucky. East Carolina is led on offense by QB Patrick Pinkney. Pinkney played his best ball down the stretch, including a great 300 yard performance against Houston in the C-USA Championship game. East carolina has played against the big boys like Virginia Tech, so Arkansas having a defense that survived the SEC will not unduly impress the Pirates' offense. Especially considering Arkansas will be playing without two starting defenders in their backfield due to team rules violations. East Carolina should be able to pass the ball against Arkansas and score some points in this game.
When the Razorbacks have the ball, the spotlight will also be on a quarterback, namely Ryan Mallett, who took over the starting job after sitting out the transfer year from Michigan. Mallet is the best passing quarterback in the SEC, and he has produced a ridiculous 29 touchdown to 7 interception ratio. There are really no receiving or rushing stars, as four running backs and five wide receivers and tight ends split the duties. Mallet and coach Bobby Petrino know how to use their diverse talents in various situations to tear apart a defense. East Carolina does not have a great pass defense, which could be problematic against a talent like Mallet. If East Carolina's offense can keep Mallet off the field for long stretches at a time, the Pirates will have a legitimate shot at this win. Look for Mallet to rack up over 300 yards in the air as Arkansas outscores ECU by 17.
Alamo Bowl
Michigan State vs. Texas Tech
1/2
The Alamo Bowl finds itself with two teams absolutely racked with controversy since the end of the season. Michigan State has suspended nearly a quarter of the team after a dormitory brawl, while Texas Tech has been in the news the week of this game for firing coach Mike Leach for misconduct to players. The Red Raiders will need to see if defensive coordinator Ruffin McNeill can continue to run the high octane passing offense. Unlike the past few seasons, Tech did not have any superstars but patched together their usual passing yards with three quarterbacks and a slew of wide receivers. Taylor Potts should be the starting signal caller, and he will have a lot of opportunity to add to his 300 yards per game average. Look for the Spartans defense to struggle covering talented freshman receiver Alexander Torres, expecially with shutdown CB Chris Rucker suspended for this game. LB Greg Jones will be all over the field making plays and tackles, but Jones will not be able to shore up the poor MSU pass defense by himself.
The Spartans had one of the better offenses in the Big Ten, scoring nearly 30 points per game. QB Kirk Cousins is the leader of the offense, but he does split a little time with sophomore Keith Nichol. Cousins will struggle in this game with two of his starting receivers out on suspension and his top receiver Blair White fading fast at the end of his college career. The last time we saw Cousins, he struggled against Penn State's defense. Now he will have to find a way to get all ther young kids he's been working with for over a month in practice to defeat an underrated Tech defense. Texas Tech is very strong on the defensive front, which means MSU might not be able to turn to the running game. If this happens, the Spartans will have trouble keeping up. While the current controversy surrounding the firing of Mike Leach will affect the Red Raiders, this looks like the perfect opportunity for the Red Raiders to put all that behind them in a mismatch. Tech wins by 17.
GMAC Bowl
Central Michigan vs. Troy
1/6
The only non-BCS bowl game past January 2, the GMAC Bowl will stand as the final appetizer before the BCS Championship. Central Michigan comes into this game as the champions of the MAC, but with coach Butch Jones sniped to Cincinnati just like Brian Kelly was three seasons ago. In any event, Kelly and Jones have left a lasting legacy of domination for the Chippewas to build upon. The Chippewas have one of the bext scoring offenses in the country thanks to senior QB Dan LeFevour, who is one of the best quarterbacks in the country and will make some noise at the pro level. LeFevour gets to add to his record 147 passing and rushing career touchdowns with favorite targets senior WR Bryan Anderson and junior Antonio Brown. Outside of LeFevour, Central Michigan does not have much of a running game, which could be a problem since this game will be a shootout. The Troy defense has not been great, but their backfield did dominate the Sun Belt. Look for LeFevour to add three more touchdowns to his career total.
Troy takes a short bus trip down to Mobile after winning the Sun Belt conference yet again. Troy has built their own dominance like Central Michigan and like the Chippewas, the Trojans are on the verge of a top-25 ranking. Troy also has a superstar senior QB Levi Brown, who put up even better passing numbers than LeFevour this year but does not have the same prolific four-year career. Brown gets a little bit of help from freshman RB Shawn Southward and junior RB Dujuan Harris, which help the Trojans rack up the third most yards per game on offense. Central Michigan does not have a lie down defense by any means, but the Chippewas saw nothing down the stretch as good as their own offense, and that's exactly what Troy brings to the table. With Troy playing a couple hours from home, it will be itneresting to see if Central Michigan can deal with a strong offense and a road game bowl environment. Both of these programs are dominant and this is really a dream match up for a shootout January bowl game. Troy is slightly better on defense and has less distractions, so while CMU could certainly win this game, Troy will win by 4.
2009 Bowl Preview Part V
Rose Bowl
Ohio State vs. Oregon
1/1
Ohio State and Oregon meet in the Rose Bowl, an unlikely match up considering OSU has not been in Pasadena since 1997 and Oregon has not been here since 1995. Ohio State comes into this game very happy to be here after losing their second game of the season in a repeat showdown against USC and then being upset on a blustery day at Purdue. Nevertheless, the Buckeyes rebounded and played it conservative down the stretch, knocking off highly ranked Penn State and Iowa in the process. Although the Buckeyes would certainly like another crack at USC after feeling robbed in September, it is probably best that OSU takes on a much better Oregon squad if the national reputation of losing big games is to be turned around. The Ducks tracked a similar path, losing their opener to Boise State and then losing a shocker at Stanford in the middle of conference play. Oregon finished with three straight wins including tight victories over Arizona and Oregon State. The story of the season in Columbus has been when will the training wheels come off Terrelle Pryor, while Oregon's best story has been the fall and recovery of RB LaGarrette Blount. It's a clash of the most traditional versus the wide open, a classic Rose Bowl with tons of pride and history on the line.
When Ohio State has the ball, it will be very interesting to see what Jim Tressel allows his offense to do in his first Rose Bowl. In bowl games, Tressel has traditionally been more liberal with his play calling in bowl games than in conference play, and this has generally led to good results offensively. With QB Terrelle Pryor, a whole new dimension comes into play and that is stopping the run on a broken play. This is easier said than done against the gliding Pryor. No matter how wide open OSU goes, the running game will be the key driving force of the offense with Pryor, Brandon Saine, and Daniel Herron all splitting carries. Pryor has been inconsistent in throwing the ball, but he has awesome talent in Dane Sanzenbacher and Devier Posey to throw to. Oregon's defense is led by LB Spencer Paysinger, who will likely be assigned to spying on Pryor's every movement. The Ducks defense is used to being on the field a long time, which bodes well for surviving the Buckeyes' ground it out style. Oregon has a lot of skill in the backfield, and if Pryor does not look off defenders, he will turn the ball over multiple times in this game. This would be devastating to the underdog Buckeyes.
When the Ducks take the ball, the premier battle of the day will take the field as Oregon's high octane offense battles OSU's Silver Bullet shutdown defense. Oregon has a similar running setup as Ohio State actually, although Jeremiah Masoli has been a more prolific passer than a runner this season. Furthermore, Oregon has one stud running back LaMichael James, although senior RB Blount should be back for some final carries as well. James brings a lot of speed that the Buckeyes will have to account for, but the real key is how well Masoli reads defenses. In a similar offense, Penn State's veteran QB Daryll Clark was harassed and completely contained by OSU, but Masoli should find a bit more running room than Clark. The Ducks have a good offensive line, but that could be one area where the Buckeyes outgun the Ducks. Look for safety Kurt Coleman to try and make a couple of big plays to force turnovers whenever Oregon passes the ball, but Oregon is so efficient that OSU's defense might not have many chances.
In special teams, the Ducks again hold the edge but not for any disparity in talent. Tressel makes a living off field position, and punter Jon Thoma will be looking to finish his career in style. Meanwhile, the return game is questionable without suspended Ray Small and the kicking game could be iffy with backup Devin Barclay. Meanwhile, Oregon will rely on kicker Morgan Flint, who was very accurate hitting on 15/17 field goals this season. If the game turns into a field position game, it might actually favor Oregon, which is exactly the opposite of what you would expect. As for coaching, it does not get much better than Jim Tressel. Chip Kelly is also trying to make a name of himself, and knocking USC off their BCS perch is a great way to start building a legacy. A Rose Bowl win for either in their first try will add to their existing or budding legend. Tressel has just had more experience and knows how to play the game on his terms, so expect OSU to have a lsight edge in gameplan.
Looking at the game on paper, all the factors seem to favor the Ducks. Ohio State has struggled recently in big games, and that's one intangible that favors the Buckeyes because streaks are meant to be broken. Remember that OSU played much tougher than expected against LSU two years ago and had Texas on the ropes last season. Gameplan counts for a lot, and Masoli and Pryor will both likely break out some big plays. Although Pryor is likely the better athlete, he is more prone to mistakes, which will decide this game. Oregon wins by 10 with a +2 turnover ratio.
Sugar Bowl
Florida vs. Cincinnati
1/1
Down in the Bayou, a meeting of teams with the most unlikely coaching circumstances will happen on the biggest stage. Florida was hoping to send out Tim Tebow with a shot at a third national championship in four seasons, but history proves that it's obscenely hard to repeat as national champions. While the Gators are certainly disappointed to end up in the Big Easy, the past five days have shocked the nation as Urban Meyer stepped down as coach for health reasons and then retracted his resignation just one day later. It appears that the terms of his contract will keep him around, but Meyer appears to be a birght star who will beat everyone based on his effort but will not be able to continue forever like many coaches who don't quite kill themselves for success. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has their own weird situation as Brian Kelly left for Notre Dame and an interim coach will only have one game at the helm before Butch Davis, who was hired away from Central Michigan, will take over the Bearcats. So while the Bearcats are kind of stuck in purgatory, each team comes in with big question marks at the coaching position and even bigger questions about the future.
When Florida has the ball, the Gators will be all about one man, obviously that being Tim Tebow. While it is true that Tebow did not have the awesome numbers he's had in the past, there's no denying he was the best football player in college football this decade and his management of the Gators was a thing to behold in 2009. Tebow threw for over 2400 yards and ran for another 860, while piling up 18 touchdowns in the air and 13 on the ground. Tebow can slice and dice a defensive backfield with WR Riley Cooper and TE Aaron Hernandez. Cincinnati's defense was gashed quite a bit late in the year, as Illinois and Pittsburgh showed some serious flaws in the Bearcats defensive front. Florida should be able to establish the run and then open up the pass against a mediocre Bearcats defense. One thing that really broke games open for UC was turnovers, but against such an intelligent game manager such as Tebow, those will be hard to come by. The Gators will put up points again in this one.
When the Bearcats take the ball, it will be a legitimate question who gets more snaps at quarterback. Tony Pike certainly had Heisman-quality numbers, but he missed a five week stretch due to injury and in stepped the future, Zach Collaros. Collaros was even better statistically than Pike, which is incredible. Furthermore, Collaros brings a little run threat to the game while Pike is a traditional pocket passer more in the mold of Ben Roethlisberger. Cincinnati does not run the ball all that well, but look for reverses and trick plays to get WR Mardy Gilyard as many touches as possible. Gilyard will be the best athlete on the field and the Gators defense need to key in on him to slow the Bearcats. However, UC will not be stopped if Gilyard is contained, as there are plenty of other threats led by WR Armon Binns and TE Ben Guidugli. The Gators have a defense that was absolutely dominant prior to the game against Alabama, but the Crimson Tide really put together a special performance in that game. Florida may indeed have another game where the defensive backfield gets a little burned and gives up a couple easy touchdowns, but the mismatch on the other side of the ball could more than make up for this.
In special teams, again Mardy Gilyard is the star of the show. Gilyard returned a kickoff for touchdown after Pittsburgh took a 21 point lead in their finale, and this play more than anything else turned the tide and allowed the Bearcats to finish undefeated. Each kicker has had inconsistent moments this season, but Florida may be able to steal some field position with their punter Chas Henry. In coaching, no offense to Jeff Quinn, but Urban Meyer is the best coach in college football. Yes he's burnt out, yes he brought some questions to the sidelines a week ago, but hands down the man is the best in the business. Quinn will be hard pressed to keep up with the prowess on the other side of the field when Meyer has downed Jim Tressel and Bob Stoops easily in previous bowls.
With all the drama between the end of the season and the game, nobody really knows what the intangibles say about this game. One could argue the Bearcats will be looking to validate their dream season by finishing undefeated, and also validate the Big East in the process. Players like Pike and Gilyard have made no bones about proving Brian Kelly wrong by doing ther best to win this game without him. Meanwhile, will Florida show up motivated at all despite the high quality opponent? There's no doubt the Gators will consider this season a disappointment, and Tebow was not able to carry an unmotivated Gators team two years ago in a Capital One bowl loss to Michigan. Nevertheless, one cannot ignore the heavy talent disparity and the fact that Cincinnati has nothing for a defense compared to the Gators. While the intangibles likely favor the undefeated Bearcats, that will not be enough in this game. The Gators roll offensively to a massive output and carry Tebow and Meyer off the field as big winners. UF by 24.
Ohio State vs. Oregon
1/1
Ohio State and Oregon meet in the Rose Bowl, an unlikely match up considering OSU has not been in Pasadena since 1997 and Oregon has not been here since 1995. Ohio State comes into this game very happy to be here after losing their second game of the season in a repeat showdown against USC and then being upset on a blustery day at Purdue. Nevertheless, the Buckeyes rebounded and played it conservative down the stretch, knocking off highly ranked Penn State and Iowa in the process. Although the Buckeyes would certainly like another crack at USC after feeling robbed in September, it is probably best that OSU takes on a much better Oregon squad if the national reputation of losing big games is to be turned around. The Ducks tracked a similar path, losing their opener to Boise State and then losing a shocker at Stanford in the middle of conference play. Oregon finished with three straight wins including tight victories over Arizona and Oregon State. The story of the season in Columbus has been when will the training wheels come off Terrelle Pryor, while Oregon's best story has been the fall and recovery of RB LaGarrette Blount. It's a clash of the most traditional versus the wide open, a classic Rose Bowl with tons of pride and history on the line.
When Ohio State has the ball, it will be very interesting to see what Jim Tressel allows his offense to do in his first Rose Bowl. In bowl games, Tressel has traditionally been more liberal with his play calling in bowl games than in conference play, and this has generally led to good results offensively. With QB Terrelle Pryor, a whole new dimension comes into play and that is stopping the run on a broken play. This is easier said than done against the gliding Pryor. No matter how wide open OSU goes, the running game will be the key driving force of the offense with Pryor, Brandon Saine, and Daniel Herron all splitting carries. Pryor has been inconsistent in throwing the ball, but he has awesome talent in Dane Sanzenbacher and Devier Posey to throw to. Oregon's defense is led by LB Spencer Paysinger, who will likely be assigned to spying on Pryor's every movement. The Ducks defense is used to being on the field a long time, which bodes well for surviving the Buckeyes' ground it out style. Oregon has a lot of skill in the backfield, and if Pryor does not look off defenders, he will turn the ball over multiple times in this game. This would be devastating to the underdog Buckeyes.
When the Ducks take the ball, the premier battle of the day will take the field as Oregon's high octane offense battles OSU's Silver Bullet shutdown defense. Oregon has a similar running setup as Ohio State actually, although Jeremiah Masoli has been a more prolific passer than a runner this season. Furthermore, Oregon has one stud running back LaMichael James, although senior RB Blount should be back for some final carries as well. James brings a lot of speed that the Buckeyes will have to account for, but the real key is how well Masoli reads defenses. In a similar offense, Penn State's veteran QB Daryll Clark was harassed and completely contained by OSU, but Masoli should find a bit more running room than Clark. The Ducks have a good offensive line, but that could be one area where the Buckeyes outgun the Ducks. Look for safety Kurt Coleman to try and make a couple of big plays to force turnovers whenever Oregon passes the ball, but Oregon is so efficient that OSU's defense might not have many chances.
In special teams, the Ducks again hold the edge but not for any disparity in talent. Tressel makes a living off field position, and punter Jon Thoma will be looking to finish his career in style. Meanwhile, the return game is questionable without suspended Ray Small and the kicking game could be iffy with backup Devin Barclay. Meanwhile, Oregon will rely on kicker Morgan Flint, who was very accurate hitting on 15/17 field goals this season. If the game turns into a field position game, it might actually favor Oregon, which is exactly the opposite of what you would expect. As for coaching, it does not get much better than Jim Tressel. Chip Kelly is also trying to make a name of himself, and knocking USC off their BCS perch is a great way to start building a legacy. A Rose Bowl win for either in their first try will add to their existing or budding legend. Tressel has just had more experience and knows how to play the game on his terms, so expect OSU to have a lsight edge in gameplan.
Looking at the game on paper, all the factors seem to favor the Ducks. Ohio State has struggled recently in big games, and that's one intangible that favors the Buckeyes because streaks are meant to be broken. Remember that OSU played much tougher than expected against LSU two years ago and had Texas on the ropes last season. Gameplan counts for a lot, and Masoli and Pryor will both likely break out some big plays. Although Pryor is likely the better athlete, he is more prone to mistakes, which will decide this game. Oregon wins by 10 with a +2 turnover ratio.
Sugar Bowl
Florida vs. Cincinnati
1/1
Down in the Bayou, a meeting of teams with the most unlikely coaching circumstances will happen on the biggest stage. Florida was hoping to send out Tim Tebow with a shot at a third national championship in four seasons, but history proves that it's obscenely hard to repeat as national champions. While the Gators are certainly disappointed to end up in the Big Easy, the past five days have shocked the nation as Urban Meyer stepped down as coach for health reasons and then retracted his resignation just one day later. It appears that the terms of his contract will keep him around, but Meyer appears to be a birght star who will beat everyone based on his effort but will not be able to continue forever like many coaches who don't quite kill themselves for success. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has their own weird situation as Brian Kelly left for Notre Dame and an interim coach will only have one game at the helm before Butch Davis, who was hired away from Central Michigan, will take over the Bearcats. So while the Bearcats are kind of stuck in purgatory, each team comes in with big question marks at the coaching position and even bigger questions about the future.
When Florida has the ball, the Gators will be all about one man, obviously that being Tim Tebow. While it is true that Tebow did not have the awesome numbers he's had in the past, there's no denying he was the best football player in college football this decade and his management of the Gators was a thing to behold in 2009. Tebow threw for over 2400 yards and ran for another 860, while piling up 18 touchdowns in the air and 13 on the ground. Tebow can slice and dice a defensive backfield with WR Riley Cooper and TE Aaron Hernandez. Cincinnati's defense was gashed quite a bit late in the year, as Illinois and Pittsburgh showed some serious flaws in the Bearcats defensive front. Florida should be able to establish the run and then open up the pass against a mediocre Bearcats defense. One thing that really broke games open for UC was turnovers, but against such an intelligent game manager such as Tebow, those will be hard to come by. The Gators will put up points again in this one.
When the Bearcats take the ball, it will be a legitimate question who gets more snaps at quarterback. Tony Pike certainly had Heisman-quality numbers, but he missed a five week stretch due to injury and in stepped the future, Zach Collaros. Collaros was even better statistically than Pike, which is incredible. Furthermore, Collaros brings a little run threat to the game while Pike is a traditional pocket passer more in the mold of Ben Roethlisberger. Cincinnati does not run the ball all that well, but look for reverses and trick plays to get WR Mardy Gilyard as many touches as possible. Gilyard will be the best athlete on the field and the Gators defense need to key in on him to slow the Bearcats. However, UC will not be stopped if Gilyard is contained, as there are plenty of other threats led by WR Armon Binns and TE Ben Guidugli. The Gators have a defense that was absolutely dominant prior to the game against Alabama, but the Crimson Tide really put together a special performance in that game. Florida may indeed have another game where the defensive backfield gets a little burned and gives up a couple easy touchdowns, but the mismatch on the other side of the ball could more than make up for this.
In special teams, again Mardy Gilyard is the star of the show. Gilyard returned a kickoff for touchdown after Pittsburgh took a 21 point lead in their finale, and this play more than anything else turned the tide and allowed the Bearcats to finish undefeated. Each kicker has had inconsistent moments this season, but Florida may be able to steal some field position with their punter Chas Henry. In coaching, no offense to Jeff Quinn, but Urban Meyer is the best coach in college football. Yes he's burnt out, yes he brought some questions to the sidelines a week ago, but hands down the man is the best in the business. Quinn will be hard pressed to keep up with the prowess on the other side of the field when Meyer has downed Jim Tressel and Bob Stoops easily in previous bowls.
With all the drama between the end of the season and the game, nobody really knows what the intangibles say about this game. One could argue the Bearcats will be looking to validate their dream season by finishing undefeated, and also validate the Big East in the process. Players like Pike and Gilyard have made no bones about proving Brian Kelly wrong by doing ther best to win this game without him. Meanwhile, will Florida show up motivated at all despite the high quality opponent? There's no doubt the Gators will consider this season a disappointment, and Tebow was not able to carry an unmotivated Gators team two years ago in a Capital One bowl loss to Michigan. Nevertheless, one cannot ignore the heavy talent disparity and the fact that Cincinnati has nothing for a defense compared to the Gators. While the intangibles likely favor the undefeated Bearcats, that will not be enough in this game. The Gators roll offensively to a massive output and carry Tebow and Meyer off the field as big winners. UF by 24.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
2009 Bowl Preview Part IV
Outback Bowl
Northwestern vs. Auburn
1/1
Northwestern came out of the gate struggling, but finished the year on a major roll with upsets of Wisconsin and Iowa. Meanwhile, Auburn squandered a 5-0 start to end up 7-5. When the Wildcats have the ball, the star of the show will be QB Mike Kafka, who passed for nearly 2900 yards and was one of the best quarterbacks in the Big Ten. Kafka also had seven touchdowns and 130 carries on the ground, so look for Kafka to test the pursuit of the Tiger defense. Kafka has two senior wideouts he splits throws to evenly, Andrew Brewer and Zeke Markshausen. Brewer and Markshausen should be able to find some open seams in an Auburn defensive backfield that was not great against SEC passing attacks. Auburn is led on defense by DE Antonio Coleman, who will likely add to his sack total even against the evasive Kafka. Expect Northwestern to match up well with Auburn, as long as the offensive line holds up against the Tigers defensive line.
When Auburn has control of the ball, the Tigers will look to take advantage of the disparity in talent between the Tiger offense and the Wildcat defense. Auburn had a very efficient offense in 2009 led by QB Chris Todd and RB Ben Tate, both seniors playing in their final game. Todd threw 21 touchdowns against only 6 interceptions and over 2300 yards as well. Meanwhile, both Tate and backup RB Onterio McCalebb ran for over 5 yards per carry. Look for McCalebb to have a breakout game to cap his freshman season and being to take over the rushing reins behind a very strong offensive line. Northwestern's defense has the strong will of their coach Pat Fitzgerald, a former all-american linebacker for the Wildcats. While none of the current wildcats are as talented as Fitzgerald once was, Northwestern really showed some grit towards the end of the season by completely shutting down Iowa and then stopping the offensive player of the year in John Clay from Wisconsin. However, Northwestern did struggle against fully balanced offenses.
If the game comes down to the kickers, this favors Auburn's Wes Byrum, who was successful on 14/15 field goal attempts. From a coaching perspective, Fitzgerald has proven he has what it takes in bowl games after nearly having a gameplan to knock off high-powered Missouri last year. Gene Chizik has not had much bowl experience recently, and the intangibles just seem to favor the Wildcats. However, there's no denying the difference in talent favors the SEC powerhouse here, and that will be difficult to overcome for the Wildcats. Auburn wins a competitive game by 3 points.
Capital One Bowl
Penn State vs. LSU
1/1
Although the BCS grabbed the top ten ranked teams in the country for the first time in history to set up five great battles, the Capital One Bowl has to be very content with this pairing of the third-best teams in the Big Ten and the SEC. Penn State comes into this game a little disappointed and without a signature win, although the finale against Michigan State was a solid statement victory. Still, the Nittany Lions played only two notable games all season and were thoroughly dominated by both Iowa and Ohio State. Meanwhile, Les Miles is busy rebuilding the Bayou Bengals after falling off from their national championship two seasons ago. LSU did struggle against Florida and Alabama, but there's no shame in a 9-3 finish in a reloading season. While Les Miles can sometimes be crazy and unpredictable on the sideline, Joe Paterno has revitlaized his program by opening the playbook a bit and using the talents of QB Daryll Clark. It's a battle of programs that is worthy of consideration among the BCS bowls as this season's best.
When Penn State has the ball, look for Clark to throw the ball all over the field to push back the LSU defense from loading up against the run. Once the passing game is established, look for RB Evan Royster to beat away at the Tigers defensive front. Clark's top target is sophomore WR Derek Moye, but there are at least three wideouts who will receive touches in this game. While LSU did not have the turnover-hawking defense of 2007 this season, the Tigers were one of the better defensive unit in the SEC. However, LSU did not see many offenses as good as the Penn State Spread HD offense. Although Clark struggled against two good defenses, the Nittany Lions should be able to put up some points after having a month to gameplan for this game.
Whenever the ball is in the Tigers' possession, LSU will need to find a way to jump-start a struggling unit. QB Jordan Jefferson did not throw for 2000 yards this season, but Jefferson was efficient and did not turn the ball over often. The LSU offense was primarily driven by the running game, but that is a massive question mark coming into this game. Starter Charles Scott has been practicing after a broken collarbone, but is doubtful for the bowl game. Furthermore, number 2 and 3 on the rushing depth chart are also done for the season, which leaves a likely fourth-string senior Trindon Holliday to pick up the slack. Considering Penn State's strength on defense is in the front 7, Holliday or Scott will be hard-pressed to get the running game moving. LSU will need to overcome problems that were present all season to score enough points in this game, and despite Les Miles's 4-0 bowl record, this does not seem like a defense that will let that happen. Penn State rolls to a 10 point win in a relatively low-scoring affair.
Gator Bowl
West Virginia vs. Florida State
1/1
If you have picture-in-picture television coverage, the 1 PM timeslot will definitely require that technology as it will be hard to ignore both the Capital One Bowl or the Bobby Bowden Bowl, also known as the Gator Bowl. Bobby Bowden came to Florida State from the hills of Morgantown and became a living legend only matched in history by Bear Bryant and Joe Paterno. A fitting send-off for Bowden was set up by the Gator Bowl by matching up the Mountaineers and the Seminoles, despite Clemson, Miami, and Boston College having more claim to the New Year's Day bowl berth. While Floirda State was able to move the ball effectively this season, their defense struggled mightily again and likely led to Bowden's exit after a less-than-impressive 6-6 finish. West Virginia finished the season on a high note with upset wins against Pittsburgh and Rutgers, while FSU limps here after a fourth consecutive beating from Tim Tebow and the Gators. If nothing else, motivation and intangibles have to favor Florida State in this one.
When the Mountaineers have the ball, watch for RB Noel Devine to receive a lot of attention from the Seminoles. Despite that, Devine has the speed and elusiveness to race defenders to the boundaries and rip off big gains. QB Jarrett Brown is also mobile, but not the real dual-threat that Pat White was for the Mountaineers. Coach Bill Stewart has instilled a more conservative run-focused play style in Morgantown, and WVU has learned to win by grinding the clock and playing good defense. Florida State had a lot of trouble stopping balanced offenses this season, and good runners like Devine generally have a field day against the Seminoles. There's no reason to expect Florida State to step up and stop Brown and Devine, but the goal must be limiting Devine's big play potential so that the Seminoles offense can keep them in the game.
The Seminoles are led on offense by E.J. Manuel, who took over in November for starting QB Christian Ponder. Manuel has turned the ball over quite a bit in his limited starting duties, which puts a lot of pressure on RB Jermaine Thomas. Look for Manuel to target wideouts Rod Owens and Bert Reed the most, whenever the offensive line gives him enough time to find an open receiver. One key could be whether Manuel learns how to check down to tight ends and running backs in pass plays where coverage is good, as WVU has a strong defensive backfield. Florida State needs to hope for some turnovers one way or another in this game to be able to stick around with the Mountaineers, but WVU will likely not blow the doors off due to their own offensive inconsistency. Florida State keeps it close for a half, but Bowden leaves his career on a losing streak as the Mountaineers take home a 17 point win.
Northwestern vs. Auburn
1/1
Northwestern came out of the gate struggling, but finished the year on a major roll with upsets of Wisconsin and Iowa. Meanwhile, Auburn squandered a 5-0 start to end up 7-5. When the Wildcats have the ball, the star of the show will be QB Mike Kafka, who passed for nearly 2900 yards and was one of the best quarterbacks in the Big Ten. Kafka also had seven touchdowns and 130 carries on the ground, so look for Kafka to test the pursuit of the Tiger defense. Kafka has two senior wideouts he splits throws to evenly, Andrew Brewer and Zeke Markshausen. Brewer and Markshausen should be able to find some open seams in an Auburn defensive backfield that was not great against SEC passing attacks. Auburn is led on defense by DE Antonio Coleman, who will likely add to his sack total even against the evasive Kafka. Expect Northwestern to match up well with Auburn, as long as the offensive line holds up against the Tigers defensive line.
When Auburn has control of the ball, the Tigers will look to take advantage of the disparity in talent between the Tiger offense and the Wildcat defense. Auburn had a very efficient offense in 2009 led by QB Chris Todd and RB Ben Tate, both seniors playing in their final game. Todd threw 21 touchdowns against only 6 interceptions and over 2300 yards as well. Meanwhile, both Tate and backup RB Onterio McCalebb ran for over 5 yards per carry. Look for McCalebb to have a breakout game to cap his freshman season and being to take over the rushing reins behind a very strong offensive line. Northwestern's defense has the strong will of their coach Pat Fitzgerald, a former all-american linebacker for the Wildcats. While none of the current wildcats are as talented as Fitzgerald once was, Northwestern really showed some grit towards the end of the season by completely shutting down Iowa and then stopping the offensive player of the year in John Clay from Wisconsin. However, Northwestern did struggle against fully balanced offenses.
If the game comes down to the kickers, this favors Auburn's Wes Byrum, who was successful on 14/15 field goal attempts. From a coaching perspective, Fitzgerald has proven he has what it takes in bowl games after nearly having a gameplan to knock off high-powered Missouri last year. Gene Chizik has not had much bowl experience recently, and the intangibles just seem to favor the Wildcats. However, there's no denying the difference in talent favors the SEC powerhouse here, and that will be difficult to overcome for the Wildcats. Auburn wins a competitive game by 3 points.
Capital One Bowl
Penn State vs. LSU
1/1
Although the BCS grabbed the top ten ranked teams in the country for the first time in history to set up five great battles, the Capital One Bowl has to be very content with this pairing of the third-best teams in the Big Ten and the SEC. Penn State comes into this game a little disappointed and without a signature win, although the finale against Michigan State was a solid statement victory. Still, the Nittany Lions played only two notable games all season and were thoroughly dominated by both Iowa and Ohio State. Meanwhile, Les Miles is busy rebuilding the Bayou Bengals after falling off from their national championship two seasons ago. LSU did struggle against Florida and Alabama, but there's no shame in a 9-3 finish in a reloading season. While Les Miles can sometimes be crazy and unpredictable on the sideline, Joe Paterno has revitlaized his program by opening the playbook a bit and using the talents of QB Daryll Clark. It's a battle of programs that is worthy of consideration among the BCS bowls as this season's best.
When Penn State has the ball, look for Clark to throw the ball all over the field to push back the LSU defense from loading up against the run. Once the passing game is established, look for RB Evan Royster to beat away at the Tigers defensive front. Clark's top target is sophomore WR Derek Moye, but there are at least three wideouts who will receive touches in this game. While LSU did not have the turnover-hawking defense of 2007 this season, the Tigers were one of the better defensive unit in the SEC. However, LSU did not see many offenses as good as the Penn State Spread HD offense. Although Clark struggled against two good defenses, the Nittany Lions should be able to put up some points after having a month to gameplan for this game.
Whenever the ball is in the Tigers' possession, LSU will need to find a way to jump-start a struggling unit. QB Jordan Jefferson did not throw for 2000 yards this season, but Jefferson was efficient and did not turn the ball over often. The LSU offense was primarily driven by the running game, but that is a massive question mark coming into this game. Starter Charles Scott has been practicing after a broken collarbone, but is doubtful for the bowl game. Furthermore, number 2 and 3 on the rushing depth chart are also done for the season, which leaves a likely fourth-string senior Trindon Holliday to pick up the slack. Considering Penn State's strength on defense is in the front 7, Holliday or Scott will be hard-pressed to get the running game moving. LSU will need to overcome problems that were present all season to score enough points in this game, and despite Les Miles's 4-0 bowl record, this does not seem like a defense that will let that happen. Penn State rolls to a 10 point win in a relatively low-scoring affair.
Gator Bowl
West Virginia vs. Florida State
1/1
If you have picture-in-picture television coverage, the 1 PM timeslot will definitely require that technology as it will be hard to ignore both the Capital One Bowl or the Bobby Bowden Bowl, also known as the Gator Bowl. Bobby Bowden came to Florida State from the hills of Morgantown and became a living legend only matched in history by Bear Bryant and Joe Paterno. A fitting send-off for Bowden was set up by the Gator Bowl by matching up the Mountaineers and the Seminoles, despite Clemson, Miami, and Boston College having more claim to the New Year's Day bowl berth. While Floirda State was able to move the ball effectively this season, their defense struggled mightily again and likely led to Bowden's exit after a less-than-impressive 6-6 finish. West Virginia finished the season on a high note with upset wins against Pittsburgh and Rutgers, while FSU limps here after a fourth consecutive beating from Tim Tebow and the Gators. If nothing else, motivation and intangibles have to favor Florida State in this one.
When the Mountaineers have the ball, watch for RB Noel Devine to receive a lot of attention from the Seminoles. Despite that, Devine has the speed and elusiveness to race defenders to the boundaries and rip off big gains. QB Jarrett Brown is also mobile, but not the real dual-threat that Pat White was for the Mountaineers. Coach Bill Stewart has instilled a more conservative run-focused play style in Morgantown, and WVU has learned to win by grinding the clock and playing good defense. Florida State had a lot of trouble stopping balanced offenses this season, and good runners like Devine generally have a field day against the Seminoles. There's no reason to expect Florida State to step up and stop Brown and Devine, but the goal must be limiting Devine's big play potential so that the Seminoles offense can keep them in the game.
The Seminoles are led on offense by E.J. Manuel, who took over in November for starting QB Christian Ponder. Manuel has turned the ball over quite a bit in his limited starting duties, which puts a lot of pressure on RB Jermaine Thomas. Look for Manuel to target wideouts Rod Owens and Bert Reed the most, whenever the offensive line gives him enough time to find an open receiver. One key could be whether Manuel learns how to check down to tight ends and running backs in pass plays where coverage is good, as WVU has a strong defensive backfield. Florida State needs to hope for some turnovers one way or another in this game to be able to stick around with the Mountaineers, but WVU will likely not blow the doors off due to their own offensive inconsistency. Florida State keeps it close for a half, but Bowden leaves his career on a losing streak as the Mountaineers take home a 17 point win.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
2009 Bowl Preview Part III
Armed Forces Bowl
SCS.com Houston vs. Air Force
12/31
In a year stacked with ranked teams from non-BCS schools, Houston ended up under the radar despite beating Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. The Cougars now face a bowl rematch of last year's Armed Forces bowl, which they won over Air Force. Case Keenum was an outside Heisman hopeful for most of the season, racking up 5500 yards of passing and spreading the ball around to many talented wideouts. The receiving crew is led by James Cleveland, but Air Force cannot discount Patrick Edwards or Tyron Carrier either. This match up is a dream battle between the nation's top ranked passing offense against the nation's top ranked pass defense. Air Force saw some potent air attacks against BYU and TCU this season, but Houston may be even better. Look for Air Force to be content to sit back in coverage and take on the talented Cougar receivers, which is something Houston has not really faced all season. Keenum will definitely rack up more yards than Air Force is accustomed to giving up, but the question is whether Houston will capitalize at the end of drives.
Air Force may have a great passing defense, but their passing offense is nearly non-existant at under 100 yards per game. Like the other two service academies, the Falcons have made a living from a powerful running game. Jared Tew and Asher Clark split the carries, and Houston's defense will be very familiar with Tew, who bashed them for 38 minutes of possession and two touchdowns last year. Conference USA teams that were able to take down the Cougars did so by generally keeping the high octane Keenum offense off the field for long stretches. Houston is very susceptible against the run, so look for Air Force to approach 40 minutes of possession time or more again this year. Sophomore Tim Jefferson quarterbacks the Falcon offense, and Jefferson will need to work a little magic in the play action pass game so that Air Force can keep up with Houston's likely scoring. I believe Houston will just put too many points on the board, even with a low time of possession. Houston wins by 10.
Sun Bowl
Oklahoma vs. Stanford
12/31
Usually the Holiday Bowl is the home of the best Big XII-Pac-10 battle of the bowl season, but Oklahoma and Stanford makes for quite a pairing here. Oklahoma's season was defined by the return of Heisman winner QB Sam Bradford, who badly injured his shoulder twice and only played one full game. Thus, the offense fell into the lap of freshman Landry Jones a year earlier than expected. Jones had his ups and downs, having eight good games and three bad ones (including 5 INT in one game). As usual, Oklahoma will continue to rely on their running game to help take the pressure off Jones, led by DeMarco Murray who will be playing in his first bowl game after 3 years. Although Stanford proved they can shut down a great offense like Oregon or USC, the Cardinal defense is just as likely to fall apart in clutch situations. As long as Oklahoma is not expected to come from behind a big deficit, Jones should lead the Sooners to a successful day on the gridiron.
Stanford enters this game off a great November, and the Cardinal offense is of course driven by RB Toby Gerhart, who finished a close second in Heisman balloting. Gerhart will be looking to add to his rushing total against a tough Oklahoma defense which stifled Texas and embarassed Oklahoma State in the finale. While Gerhart will be the star of the show, the opposing defense only has a few young men who will make a good living on Sundays. DT Gerald McCoy will harass the Cardinal offensive line, and DT Adrian Taylor should plug up the holes in the middle. Stanford has a freshman quarterback of their own in Andrew Luck, and Luck will need to manage the game carefully against the opportunistic Sooner defense. Oklahoma may not put many points up on the board offensively, but the defense has gelled together to a championship caliber level and Stanford is really just too one-dimensional to overcome the talented Sooner defense. Oklahoma wins by 14.
Texas Bowl
Navy vs. Missouri
12/31
Navy brings their triple option rushing attack to Texas to take on the Missouri Tigers, who will be looking to air the ball out and pass around the field. Navy's offense is led by the fantastic QB Ricky Dobbs, who has played better than expectations in an offense that requires a smart and quick-thinking quarterback. Dobbs leads the team in rushing and set the record for rushing touchdowns in a season by a QB with 24. Dobbs can also throw the long ball from time to time to catch defenses off guard, but Navy does not have much of a short passing game to speak of. Of course a good option attack cannot exist without as strong offensive line and an athletic fullback, and FB Vince Murray fits the bill for the Midshipmen. Look for Navy to rack up a lot of yards on the ground but having three weeks to prepare will certainly help the Missouri defense. The only other team which had multiple weeks to prepare for Navy's attack was Ohio State, and this game should play out in a similar fashion. Navy will keep it close, but look for the Tigers defense to be ready.
Missouri does not run the ball with nearly the same prolific results as Navy, but the Tigers do have one of the better passing offenses in the country. Sophomore QB Blaine Gabbert has replaced Chase Daniel very seamlessly and threw for over 3300 yards. Helping Gabbert reach these gaudy numbers was senior WR Danario Alexander, who led the nation in receiving yards. Navy has a very questionable secondary which has given up a lot of yards to the better talented group sof wideouts the Midshipmen have faced. Gabbert and Alexander could be the better than any duo the Midshipmen have faced thus far this season. Missouri should be able to establish a strong passing game and limit the damage the triple option can inflict on their defense. Tigers win a much closer game than expected by 3.
Insight Bowl
Minnesota vs. Iowa State
12/31
Minnesota comes into this game hoping that the month-long break has given the team enough time to get together some semblance of offense. The Golden Gophers struggled mightily in the Big Ten this season, and many troubles were exacerbated by the loss of WR Eric Decker for the season. QB Adam Weber has also been bitten by the turnover bug, throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. Weber's best remaining target is Nick Tow-Arnett, but the Gophers will be trying to develop an offense for the future in this game. Expect Tim Brewster to come up with a lot of basic play packages to at least get the ball rolling. Expect this to be a breakout performance of freshman QB MarQueis Gray, who saw limited playing time behind Weber. Gray is a dual threat and will be a challenge for Iowa State to contain. The good news for the Golden Gophers is that the Cyclones defense is a perfect firestarter to get Gray going as the future leader of the offense.
The Cyclones have at least found an identity in their offensive game plan, but have also struggled to execute against the defenses in the Big XII. The crowning achievement of the season for ISU was a victory over Nebraska, but the Cyclones could not even manage 10 points in that win. RB Alex Robinson will test the Gopher defensive front, which has been solid against very good running backs in the Big Ten. QB Austen Arnaud is the key to the Cyclones offense, as his turnovers can derail a game just as fast as his good game management skills. Look for Robinson to get a lot of carries as Iowa State shortens the game and tries to take advantage of the few opportunities they will have. Special teams will be crucial in this battle, as field goals could very well be the difference. Minnesota's Eric Ellestad was not able to kick a successful field goal beyond 39 yards, but he was 11/11 within that distance. Iowa State's Grant Mahoney missed four extra points this season but he did hit 3 field goals over fifty yards, so Mahoney at least has more of a chance from long distance despite his inconsistency. That inconsistency will do in Iowa State, as Minnesota wins by a field goal.
Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee
12/31
The final bowl game of December always provides a compelling game going into the New Year celebration, and this year's version has two traditional powerhouse programs in Virginia Tech and Tennessee. The Hokies looked like a national title contender, but those hopes were derailed by Alabama in the opener. QB Tyrod Taylor completely transformed from a run-pass dual threat into a pocket passer in his junior season. Helping that transformation was the emergence of freshman RB Ryan Williams, who ran for over 1500 yards. The offense has flourished with a talented offensive line, which will be truly tested by Tennessee's defensive front. The star of the Tennessee defense is all-american safety Eric Berry, who will hope to add to his interception total against the improved Taylor. Expect a fair amount of blitzes and liberal play calling from Lane Kiffin, who wants to rattle the Hokies and keep the game on the Volunteers' terms.
Tennessee has dealt with a fair share of controversy in Lane Kiffin's first season, both caused by the coach himself and some of his players. The pre-bowl controversy centers around the use of college students on high school campuses for recruiting, but that should not distract the players from this game. QB Jonathon Crompton has grown a lot since Tennessee's loss to Alabama, but the Volunteer offense will only go as far as RB Montario Hardesty can carry them. Virginia Tech has a championship caliber defense that did not quite live up to the billing in the biggest games, but no team coached by Frank Beamer will allow themselves to be embarassed with weeks to prepare for the bowl game. Virginia Tech should also be able to get pressure on Crompton and force him into some bad decisions, which plays right into the hand of Beamerball. While Kiffin will make a good show in this one, Beamer has been there many times before and he will go back to the defense and special teams well for another bowl victory. Hokies by 9.
SCS.com Houston vs. Air Force
12/31
In a year stacked with ranked teams from non-BCS schools, Houston ended up under the radar despite beating Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. The Cougars now face a bowl rematch of last year's Armed Forces bowl, which they won over Air Force. Case Keenum was an outside Heisman hopeful for most of the season, racking up 5500 yards of passing and spreading the ball around to many talented wideouts. The receiving crew is led by James Cleveland, but Air Force cannot discount Patrick Edwards or Tyron Carrier either. This match up is a dream battle between the nation's top ranked passing offense against the nation's top ranked pass defense. Air Force saw some potent air attacks against BYU and TCU this season, but Houston may be even better. Look for Air Force to be content to sit back in coverage and take on the talented Cougar receivers, which is something Houston has not really faced all season. Keenum will definitely rack up more yards than Air Force is accustomed to giving up, but the question is whether Houston will capitalize at the end of drives.
Air Force may have a great passing defense, but their passing offense is nearly non-existant at under 100 yards per game. Like the other two service academies, the Falcons have made a living from a powerful running game. Jared Tew and Asher Clark split the carries, and Houston's defense will be very familiar with Tew, who bashed them for 38 minutes of possession and two touchdowns last year. Conference USA teams that were able to take down the Cougars did so by generally keeping the high octane Keenum offense off the field for long stretches. Houston is very susceptible against the run, so look for Air Force to approach 40 minutes of possession time or more again this year. Sophomore Tim Jefferson quarterbacks the Falcon offense, and Jefferson will need to work a little magic in the play action pass game so that Air Force can keep up with Houston's likely scoring. I believe Houston will just put too many points on the board, even with a low time of possession. Houston wins by 10.
Sun Bowl
Oklahoma vs. Stanford
12/31
Usually the Holiday Bowl is the home of the best Big XII-Pac-10 battle of the bowl season, but Oklahoma and Stanford makes for quite a pairing here. Oklahoma's season was defined by the return of Heisman winner QB Sam Bradford, who badly injured his shoulder twice and only played one full game. Thus, the offense fell into the lap of freshman Landry Jones a year earlier than expected. Jones had his ups and downs, having eight good games and three bad ones (including 5 INT in one game). As usual, Oklahoma will continue to rely on their running game to help take the pressure off Jones, led by DeMarco Murray who will be playing in his first bowl game after 3 years. Although Stanford proved they can shut down a great offense like Oregon or USC, the Cardinal defense is just as likely to fall apart in clutch situations. As long as Oklahoma is not expected to come from behind a big deficit, Jones should lead the Sooners to a successful day on the gridiron.
Stanford enters this game off a great November, and the Cardinal offense is of course driven by RB Toby Gerhart, who finished a close second in Heisman balloting. Gerhart will be looking to add to his rushing total against a tough Oklahoma defense which stifled Texas and embarassed Oklahoma State in the finale. While Gerhart will be the star of the show, the opposing defense only has a few young men who will make a good living on Sundays. DT Gerald McCoy will harass the Cardinal offensive line, and DT Adrian Taylor should plug up the holes in the middle. Stanford has a freshman quarterback of their own in Andrew Luck, and Luck will need to manage the game carefully against the opportunistic Sooner defense. Oklahoma may not put many points up on the board offensively, but the defense has gelled together to a championship caliber level and Stanford is really just too one-dimensional to overcome the talented Sooner defense. Oklahoma wins by 14.
Texas Bowl
Navy vs. Missouri
12/31
Navy brings their triple option rushing attack to Texas to take on the Missouri Tigers, who will be looking to air the ball out and pass around the field. Navy's offense is led by the fantastic QB Ricky Dobbs, who has played better than expectations in an offense that requires a smart and quick-thinking quarterback. Dobbs leads the team in rushing and set the record for rushing touchdowns in a season by a QB with 24. Dobbs can also throw the long ball from time to time to catch defenses off guard, but Navy does not have much of a short passing game to speak of. Of course a good option attack cannot exist without as strong offensive line and an athletic fullback, and FB Vince Murray fits the bill for the Midshipmen. Look for Navy to rack up a lot of yards on the ground but having three weeks to prepare will certainly help the Missouri defense. The only other team which had multiple weeks to prepare for Navy's attack was Ohio State, and this game should play out in a similar fashion. Navy will keep it close, but look for the Tigers defense to be ready.
Missouri does not run the ball with nearly the same prolific results as Navy, but the Tigers do have one of the better passing offenses in the country. Sophomore QB Blaine Gabbert has replaced Chase Daniel very seamlessly and threw for over 3300 yards. Helping Gabbert reach these gaudy numbers was senior WR Danario Alexander, who led the nation in receiving yards. Navy has a very questionable secondary which has given up a lot of yards to the better talented group sof wideouts the Midshipmen have faced. Gabbert and Alexander could be the better than any duo the Midshipmen have faced thus far this season. Missouri should be able to establish a strong passing game and limit the damage the triple option can inflict on their defense. Tigers win a much closer game than expected by 3.
Insight Bowl
Minnesota vs. Iowa State
12/31
Minnesota comes into this game hoping that the month-long break has given the team enough time to get together some semblance of offense. The Golden Gophers struggled mightily in the Big Ten this season, and many troubles were exacerbated by the loss of WR Eric Decker for the season. QB Adam Weber has also been bitten by the turnover bug, throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. Weber's best remaining target is Nick Tow-Arnett, but the Gophers will be trying to develop an offense for the future in this game. Expect Tim Brewster to come up with a lot of basic play packages to at least get the ball rolling. Expect this to be a breakout performance of freshman QB MarQueis Gray, who saw limited playing time behind Weber. Gray is a dual threat and will be a challenge for Iowa State to contain. The good news for the Golden Gophers is that the Cyclones defense is a perfect firestarter to get Gray going as the future leader of the offense.
The Cyclones have at least found an identity in their offensive game plan, but have also struggled to execute against the defenses in the Big XII. The crowning achievement of the season for ISU was a victory over Nebraska, but the Cyclones could not even manage 10 points in that win. RB Alex Robinson will test the Gopher defensive front, which has been solid against very good running backs in the Big Ten. QB Austen Arnaud is the key to the Cyclones offense, as his turnovers can derail a game just as fast as his good game management skills. Look for Robinson to get a lot of carries as Iowa State shortens the game and tries to take advantage of the few opportunities they will have. Special teams will be crucial in this battle, as field goals could very well be the difference. Minnesota's Eric Ellestad was not able to kick a successful field goal beyond 39 yards, but he was 11/11 within that distance. Iowa State's Grant Mahoney missed four extra points this season but he did hit 3 field goals over fifty yards, so Mahoney at least has more of a chance from long distance despite his inconsistency. That inconsistency will do in Iowa State, as Minnesota wins by a field goal.
Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee
12/31
The final bowl game of December always provides a compelling game going into the New Year celebration, and this year's version has two traditional powerhouse programs in Virginia Tech and Tennessee. The Hokies looked like a national title contender, but those hopes were derailed by Alabama in the opener. QB Tyrod Taylor completely transformed from a run-pass dual threat into a pocket passer in his junior season. Helping that transformation was the emergence of freshman RB Ryan Williams, who ran for over 1500 yards. The offense has flourished with a talented offensive line, which will be truly tested by Tennessee's defensive front. The star of the Tennessee defense is all-american safety Eric Berry, who will hope to add to his interception total against the improved Taylor. Expect a fair amount of blitzes and liberal play calling from Lane Kiffin, who wants to rattle the Hokies and keep the game on the Volunteers' terms.
Tennessee has dealt with a fair share of controversy in Lane Kiffin's first season, both caused by the coach himself and some of his players. The pre-bowl controversy centers around the use of college students on high school campuses for recruiting, but that should not distract the players from this game. QB Jonathon Crompton has grown a lot since Tennessee's loss to Alabama, but the Volunteer offense will only go as far as RB Montario Hardesty can carry them. Virginia Tech has a championship caliber defense that did not quite live up to the billing in the biggest games, but no team coached by Frank Beamer will allow themselves to be embarassed with weeks to prepare for the bowl game. Virginia Tech should also be able to get pressure on Crompton and force him into some bad decisions, which plays right into the hand of Beamerball. While Kiffin will make a good show in this one, Beamer has been there many times before and he will go back to the defense and special teams well for another bowl victory. Hokies by 9.
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