Outback Bowl
Northwestern vs. Auburn
1/1
Northwestern came out of the gate struggling, but finished the year on a major roll with upsets of Wisconsin and Iowa. Meanwhile, Auburn squandered a 5-0 start to end up 7-5. When the Wildcats have the ball, the star of the show will be QB Mike Kafka, who passed for nearly 2900 yards and was one of the best quarterbacks in the Big Ten. Kafka also had seven touchdowns and 130 carries on the ground, so look for Kafka to test the pursuit of the Tiger defense. Kafka has two senior wideouts he splits throws to evenly, Andrew Brewer and Zeke Markshausen. Brewer and Markshausen should be able to find some open seams in an Auburn defensive backfield that was not great against SEC passing attacks. Auburn is led on defense by DE Antonio Coleman, who will likely add to his sack total even against the evasive Kafka. Expect Northwestern to match up well with Auburn, as long as the offensive line holds up against the Tigers defensive line.
When Auburn has control of the ball, the Tigers will look to take advantage of the disparity in talent between the Tiger offense and the Wildcat defense. Auburn had a very efficient offense in 2009 led by QB Chris Todd and RB Ben Tate, both seniors playing in their final game. Todd threw 21 touchdowns against only 6 interceptions and over 2300 yards as well. Meanwhile, both Tate and backup RB Onterio McCalebb ran for over 5 yards per carry. Look for McCalebb to have a breakout game to cap his freshman season and being to take over the rushing reins behind a very strong offensive line. Northwestern's defense has the strong will of their coach Pat Fitzgerald, a former all-american linebacker for the Wildcats. While none of the current wildcats are as talented as Fitzgerald once was, Northwestern really showed some grit towards the end of the season by completely shutting down Iowa and then stopping the offensive player of the year in John Clay from Wisconsin. However, Northwestern did struggle against fully balanced offenses.
If the game comes down to the kickers, this favors Auburn's Wes Byrum, who was successful on 14/15 field goal attempts. From a coaching perspective, Fitzgerald has proven he has what it takes in bowl games after nearly having a gameplan to knock off high-powered Missouri last year. Gene Chizik has not had much bowl experience recently, and the intangibles just seem to favor the Wildcats. However, there's no denying the difference in talent favors the SEC powerhouse here, and that will be difficult to overcome for the Wildcats. Auburn wins a competitive game by 3 points.
Capital One Bowl
Penn State vs. LSU
1/1
Although the BCS grabbed the top ten ranked teams in the country for the first time in history to set up five great battles, the Capital One Bowl has to be very content with this pairing of the third-best teams in the Big Ten and the SEC. Penn State comes into this game a little disappointed and without a signature win, although the finale against Michigan State was a solid statement victory. Still, the Nittany Lions played only two notable games all season and were thoroughly dominated by both Iowa and Ohio State. Meanwhile, Les Miles is busy rebuilding the Bayou Bengals after falling off from their national championship two seasons ago. LSU did struggle against Florida and Alabama, but there's no shame in a 9-3 finish in a reloading season. While Les Miles can sometimes be crazy and unpredictable on the sideline, Joe Paterno has revitlaized his program by opening the playbook a bit and using the talents of QB Daryll Clark. It's a battle of programs that is worthy of consideration among the BCS bowls as this season's best.
When Penn State has the ball, look for Clark to throw the ball all over the field to push back the LSU defense from loading up against the run. Once the passing game is established, look for RB Evan Royster to beat away at the Tigers defensive front. Clark's top target is sophomore WR Derek Moye, but there are at least three wideouts who will receive touches in this game. While LSU did not have the turnover-hawking defense of 2007 this season, the Tigers were one of the better defensive unit in the SEC. However, LSU did not see many offenses as good as the Penn State Spread HD offense. Although Clark struggled against two good defenses, the Nittany Lions should be able to put up some points after having a month to gameplan for this game.
Whenever the ball is in the Tigers' possession, LSU will need to find a way to jump-start a struggling unit. QB Jordan Jefferson did not throw for 2000 yards this season, but Jefferson was efficient and did not turn the ball over often. The LSU offense was primarily driven by the running game, but that is a massive question mark coming into this game. Starter Charles Scott has been practicing after a broken collarbone, but is doubtful for the bowl game. Furthermore, number 2 and 3 on the rushing depth chart are also done for the season, which leaves a likely fourth-string senior Trindon Holliday to pick up the slack. Considering Penn State's strength on defense is in the front 7, Holliday or Scott will be hard-pressed to get the running game moving. LSU will need to overcome problems that were present all season to score enough points in this game, and despite Les Miles's 4-0 bowl record, this does not seem like a defense that will let that happen. Penn State rolls to a 10 point win in a relatively low-scoring affair.
Gator Bowl
West Virginia vs. Florida State
1/1
If you have picture-in-picture television coverage, the 1 PM timeslot will definitely require that technology as it will be hard to ignore both the Capital One Bowl or the Bobby Bowden Bowl, also known as the Gator Bowl. Bobby Bowden came to Florida State from the hills of Morgantown and became a living legend only matched in history by Bear Bryant and Joe Paterno. A fitting send-off for Bowden was set up by the Gator Bowl by matching up the Mountaineers and the Seminoles, despite Clemson, Miami, and Boston College having more claim to the New Year's Day bowl berth. While Floirda State was able to move the ball effectively this season, their defense struggled mightily again and likely led to Bowden's exit after a less-than-impressive 6-6 finish. West Virginia finished the season on a high note with upset wins against Pittsburgh and Rutgers, while FSU limps here after a fourth consecutive beating from Tim Tebow and the Gators. If nothing else, motivation and intangibles have to favor Florida State in this one.
When the Mountaineers have the ball, watch for RB Noel Devine to receive a lot of attention from the Seminoles. Despite that, Devine has the speed and elusiveness to race defenders to the boundaries and rip off big gains. QB Jarrett Brown is also mobile, but not the real dual-threat that Pat White was for the Mountaineers. Coach Bill Stewart has instilled a more conservative run-focused play style in Morgantown, and WVU has learned to win by grinding the clock and playing good defense. Florida State had a lot of trouble stopping balanced offenses this season, and good runners like Devine generally have a field day against the Seminoles. There's no reason to expect Florida State to step up and stop Brown and Devine, but the goal must be limiting Devine's big play potential so that the Seminoles offense can keep them in the game.
The Seminoles are led on offense by E.J. Manuel, who took over in November for starting QB Christian Ponder. Manuel has turned the ball over quite a bit in his limited starting duties, which puts a lot of pressure on RB Jermaine Thomas. Look for Manuel to target wideouts Rod Owens and Bert Reed the most, whenever the offensive line gives him enough time to find an open receiver. One key could be whether Manuel learns how to check down to tight ends and running backs in pass plays where coverage is good, as WVU has a strong defensive backfield. Florida State needs to hope for some turnovers one way or another in this game to be able to stick around with the Mountaineers, but WVU will likely not blow the doors off due to their own offensive inconsistency. Florida State keeps it close for a half, but Bowden leaves his career on a losing streak as the Mountaineers take home a 17 point win.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
2009 Bowl Preview Part III
Armed Forces Bowl
SCS.com Houston vs. Air Force
12/31
In a year stacked with ranked teams from non-BCS schools, Houston ended up under the radar despite beating Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. The Cougars now face a bowl rematch of last year's Armed Forces bowl, which they won over Air Force. Case Keenum was an outside Heisman hopeful for most of the season, racking up 5500 yards of passing and spreading the ball around to many talented wideouts. The receiving crew is led by James Cleveland, but Air Force cannot discount Patrick Edwards or Tyron Carrier either. This match up is a dream battle between the nation's top ranked passing offense against the nation's top ranked pass defense. Air Force saw some potent air attacks against BYU and TCU this season, but Houston may be even better. Look for Air Force to be content to sit back in coverage and take on the talented Cougar receivers, which is something Houston has not really faced all season. Keenum will definitely rack up more yards than Air Force is accustomed to giving up, but the question is whether Houston will capitalize at the end of drives.
Air Force may have a great passing defense, but their passing offense is nearly non-existant at under 100 yards per game. Like the other two service academies, the Falcons have made a living from a powerful running game. Jared Tew and Asher Clark split the carries, and Houston's defense will be very familiar with Tew, who bashed them for 38 minutes of possession and two touchdowns last year. Conference USA teams that were able to take down the Cougars did so by generally keeping the high octane Keenum offense off the field for long stretches. Houston is very susceptible against the run, so look for Air Force to approach 40 minutes of possession time or more again this year. Sophomore Tim Jefferson quarterbacks the Falcon offense, and Jefferson will need to work a little magic in the play action pass game so that Air Force can keep up with Houston's likely scoring. I believe Houston will just put too many points on the board, even with a low time of possession. Houston wins by 10.
Sun Bowl
Oklahoma vs. Stanford
12/31
Usually the Holiday Bowl is the home of the best Big XII-Pac-10 battle of the bowl season, but Oklahoma and Stanford makes for quite a pairing here. Oklahoma's season was defined by the return of Heisman winner QB Sam Bradford, who badly injured his shoulder twice and only played one full game. Thus, the offense fell into the lap of freshman Landry Jones a year earlier than expected. Jones had his ups and downs, having eight good games and three bad ones (including 5 INT in one game). As usual, Oklahoma will continue to rely on their running game to help take the pressure off Jones, led by DeMarco Murray who will be playing in his first bowl game after 3 years. Although Stanford proved they can shut down a great offense like Oregon or USC, the Cardinal defense is just as likely to fall apart in clutch situations. As long as Oklahoma is not expected to come from behind a big deficit, Jones should lead the Sooners to a successful day on the gridiron.
Stanford enters this game off a great November, and the Cardinal offense is of course driven by RB Toby Gerhart, who finished a close second in Heisman balloting. Gerhart will be looking to add to his rushing total against a tough Oklahoma defense which stifled Texas and embarassed Oklahoma State in the finale. While Gerhart will be the star of the show, the opposing defense only has a few young men who will make a good living on Sundays. DT Gerald McCoy will harass the Cardinal offensive line, and DT Adrian Taylor should plug up the holes in the middle. Stanford has a freshman quarterback of their own in Andrew Luck, and Luck will need to manage the game carefully against the opportunistic Sooner defense. Oklahoma may not put many points up on the board offensively, but the defense has gelled together to a championship caliber level and Stanford is really just too one-dimensional to overcome the talented Sooner defense. Oklahoma wins by 14.
Texas Bowl
Navy vs. Missouri
12/31
Navy brings their triple option rushing attack to Texas to take on the Missouri Tigers, who will be looking to air the ball out and pass around the field. Navy's offense is led by the fantastic QB Ricky Dobbs, who has played better than expectations in an offense that requires a smart and quick-thinking quarterback. Dobbs leads the team in rushing and set the record for rushing touchdowns in a season by a QB with 24. Dobbs can also throw the long ball from time to time to catch defenses off guard, but Navy does not have much of a short passing game to speak of. Of course a good option attack cannot exist without as strong offensive line and an athletic fullback, and FB Vince Murray fits the bill for the Midshipmen. Look for Navy to rack up a lot of yards on the ground but having three weeks to prepare will certainly help the Missouri defense. The only other team which had multiple weeks to prepare for Navy's attack was Ohio State, and this game should play out in a similar fashion. Navy will keep it close, but look for the Tigers defense to be ready.
Missouri does not run the ball with nearly the same prolific results as Navy, but the Tigers do have one of the better passing offenses in the country. Sophomore QB Blaine Gabbert has replaced Chase Daniel very seamlessly and threw for over 3300 yards. Helping Gabbert reach these gaudy numbers was senior WR Danario Alexander, who led the nation in receiving yards. Navy has a very questionable secondary which has given up a lot of yards to the better talented group sof wideouts the Midshipmen have faced. Gabbert and Alexander could be the better than any duo the Midshipmen have faced thus far this season. Missouri should be able to establish a strong passing game and limit the damage the triple option can inflict on their defense. Tigers win a much closer game than expected by 3.
Insight Bowl
Minnesota vs. Iowa State
12/31
Minnesota comes into this game hoping that the month-long break has given the team enough time to get together some semblance of offense. The Golden Gophers struggled mightily in the Big Ten this season, and many troubles were exacerbated by the loss of WR Eric Decker for the season. QB Adam Weber has also been bitten by the turnover bug, throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. Weber's best remaining target is Nick Tow-Arnett, but the Gophers will be trying to develop an offense for the future in this game. Expect Tim Brewster to come up with a lot of basic play packages to at least get the ball rolling. Expect this to be a breakout performance of freshman QB MarQueis Gray, who saw limited playing time behind Weber. Gray is a dual threat and will be a challenge for Iowa State to contain. The good news for the Golden Gophers is that the Cyclones defense is a perfect firestarter to get Gray going as the future leader of the offense.
The Cyclones have at least found an identity in their offensive game plan, but have also struggled to execute against the defenses in the Big XII. The crowning achievement of the season for ISU was a victory over Nebraska, but the Cyclones could not even manage 10 points in that win. RB Alex Robinson will test the Gopher defensive front, which has been solid against very good running backs in the Big Ten. QB Austen Arnaud is the key to the Cyclones offense, as his turnovers can derail a game just as fast as his good game management skills. Look for Robinson to get a lot of carries as Iowa State shortens the game and tries to take advantage of the few opportunities they will have. Special teams will be crucial in this battle, as field goals could very well be the difference. Minnesota's Eric Ellestad was not able to kick a successful field goal beyond 39 yards, but he was 11/11 within that distance. Iowa State's Grant Mahoney missed four extra points this season but he did hit 3 field goals over fifty yards, so Mahoney at least has more of a chance from long distance despite his inconsistency. That inconsistency will do in Iowa State, as Minnesota wins by a field goal.
Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee
12/31
The final bowl game of December always provides a compelling game going into the New Year celebration, and this year's version has two traditional powerhouse programs in Virginia Tech and Tennessee. The Hokies looked like a national title contender, but those hopes were derailed by Alabama in the opener. QB Tyrod Taylor completely transformed from a run-pass dual threat into a pocket passer in his junior season. Helping that transformation was the emergence of freshman RB Ryan Williams, who ran for over 1500 yards. The offense has flourished with a talented offensive line, which will be truly tested by Tennessee's defensive front. The star of the Tennessee defense is all-american safety Eric Berry, who will hope to add to his interception total against the improved Taylor. Expect a fair amount of blitzes and liberal play calling from Lane Kiffin, who wants to rattle the Hokies and keep the game on the Volunteers' terms.
Tennessee has dealt with a fair share of controversy in Lane Kiffin's first season, both caused by the coach himself and some of his players. The pre-bowl controversy centers around the use of college students on high school campuses for recruiting, but that should not distract the players from this game. QB Jonathon Crompton has grown a lot since Tennessee's loss to Alabama, but the Volunteer offense will only go as far as RB Montario Hardesty can carry them. Virginia Tech has a championship caliber defense that did not quite live up to the billing in the biggest games, but no team coached by Frank Beamer will allow themselves to be embarassed with weeks to prepare for the bowl game. Virginia Tech should also be able to get pressure on Crompton and force him into some bad decisions, which plays right into the hand of Beamerball. While Kiffin will make a good show in this one, Beamer has been there many times before and he will go back to the defense and special teams well for another bowl victory. Hokies by 9.
SCS.com Houston vs. Air Force
12/31
In a year stacked with ranked teams from non-BCS schools, Houston ended up under the radar despite beating Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. The Cougars now face a bowl rematch of last year's Armed Forces bowl, which they won over Air Force. Case Keenum was an outside Heisman hopeful for most of the season, racking up 5500 yards of passing and spreading the ball around to many talented wideouts. The receiving crew is led by James Cleveland, but Air Force cannot discount Patrick Edwards or Tyron Carrier either. This match up is a dream battle between the nation's top ranked passing offense against the nation's top ranked pass defense. Air Force saw some potent air attacks against BYU and TCU this season, but Houston may be even better. Look for Air Force to be content to sit back in coverage and take on the talented Cougar receivers, which is something Houston has not really faced all season. Keenum will definitely rack up more yards than Air Force is accustomed to giving up, but the question is whether Houston will capitalize at the end of drives.
Air Force may have a great passing defense, but their passing offense is nearly non-existant at under 100 yards per game. Like the other two service academies, the Falcons have made a living from a powerful running game. Jared Tew and Asher Clark split the carries, and Houston's defense will be very familiar with Tew, who bashed them for 38 minutes of possession and two touchdowns last year. Conference USA teams that were able to take down the Cougars did so by generally keeping the high octane Keenum offense off the field for long stretches. Houston is very susceptible against the run, so look for Air Force to approach 40 minutes of possession time or more again this year. Sophomore Tim Jefferson quarterbacks the Falcon offense, and Jefferson will need to work a little magic in the play action pass game so that Air Force can keep up with Houston's likely scoring. I believe Houston will just put too many points on the board, even with a low time of possession. Houston wins by 10.
Sun Bowl
Oklahoma vs. Stanford
12/31
Usually the Holiday Bowl is the home of the best Big XII-Pac-10 battle of the bowl season, but Oklahoma and Stanford makes for quite a pairing here. Oklahoma's season was defined by the return of Heisman winner QB Sam Bradford, who badly injured his shoulder twice and only played one full game. Thus, the offense fell into the lap of freshman Landry Jones a year earlier than expected. Jones had his ups and downs, having eight good games and three bad ones (including 5 INT in one game). As usual, Oklahoma will continue to rely on their running game to help take the pressure off Jones, led by DeMarco Murray who will be playing in his first bowl game after 3 years. Although Stanford proved they can shut down a great offense like Oregon or USC, the Cardinal defense is just as likely to fall apart in clutch situations. As long as Oklahoma is not expected to come from behind a big deficit, Jones should lead the Sooners to a successful day on the gridiron.
Stanford enters this game off a great November, and the Cardinal offense is of course driven by RB Toby Gerhart, who finished a close second in Heisman balloting. Gerhart will be looking to add to his rushing total against a tough Oklahoma defense which stifled Texas and embarassed Oklahoma State in the finale. While Gerhart will be the star of the show, the opposing defense only has a few young men who will make a good living on Sundays. DT Gerald McCoy will harass the Cardinal offensive line, and DT Adrian Taylor should plug up the holes in the middle. Stanford has a freshman quarterback of their own in Andrew Luck, and Luck will need to manage the game carefully against the opportunistic Sooner defense. Oklahoma may not put many points up on the board offensively, but the defense has gelled together to a championship caliber level and Stanford is really just too one-dimensional to overcome the talented Sooner defense. Oklahoma wins by 14.
Texas Bowl
Navy vs. Missouri
12/31
Navy brings their triple option rushing attack to Texas to take on the Missouri Tigers, who will be looking to air the ball out and pass around the field. Navy's offense is led by the fantastic QB Ricky Dobbs, who has played better than expectations in an offense that requires a smart and quick-thinking quarterback. Dobbs leads the team in rushing and set the record for rushing touchdowns in a season by a QB with 24. Dobbs can also throw the long ball from time to time to catch defenses off guard, but Navy does not have much of a short passing game to speak of. Of course a good option attack cannot exist without as strong offensive line and an athletic fullback, and FB Vince Murray fits the bill for the Midshipmen. Look for Navy to rack up a lot of yards on the ground but having three weeks to prepare will certainly help the Missouri defense. The only other team which had multiple weeks to prepare for Navy's attack was Ohio State, and this game should play out in a similar fashion. Navy will keep it close, but look for the Tigers defense to be ready.
Missouri does not run the ball with nearly the same prolific results as Navy, but the Tigers do have one of the better passing offenses in the country. Sophomore QB Blaine Gabbert has replaced Chase Daniel very seamlessly and threw for over 3300 yards. Helping Gabbert reach these gaudy numbers was senior WR Danario Alexander, who led the nation in receiving yards. Navy has a very questionable secondary which has given up a lot of yards to the better talented group sof wideouts the Midshipmen have faced. Gabbert and Alexander could be the better than any duo the Midshipmen have faced thus far this season. Missouri should be able to establish a strong passing game and limit the damage the triple option can inflict on their defense. Tigers win a much closer game than expected by 3.
Insight Bowl
Minnesota vs. Iowa State
12/31
Minnesota comes into this game hoping that the month-long break has given the team enough time to get together some semblance of offense. The Golden Gophers struggled mightily in the Big Ten this season, and many troubles were exacerbated by the loss of WR Eric Decker for the season. QB Adam Weber has also been bitten by the turnover bug, throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. Weber's best remaining target is Nick Tow-Arnett, but the Gophers will be trying to develop an offense for the future in this game. Expect Tim Brewster to come up with a lot of basic play packages to at least get the ball rolling. Expect this to be a breakout performance of freshman QB MarQueis Gray, who saw limited playing time behind Weber. Gray is a dual threat and will be a challenge for Iowa State to contain. The good news for the Golden Gophers is that the Cyclones defense is a perfect firestarter to get Gray going as the future leader of the offense.
The Cyclones have at least found an identity in their offensive game plan, but have also struggled to execute against the defenses in the Big XII. The crowning achievement of the season for ISU was a victory over Nebraska, but the Cyclones could not even manage 10 points in that win. RB Alex Robinson will test the Gopher defensive front, which has been solid against very good running backs in the Big Ten. QB Austen Arnaud is the key to the Cyclones offense, as his turnovers can derail a game just as fast as his good game management skills. Look for Robinson to get a lot of carries as Iowa State shortens the game and tries to take advantage of the few opportunities they will have. Special teams will be crucial in this battle, as field goals could very well be the difference. Minnesota's Eric Ellestad was not able to kick a successful field goal beyond 39 yards, but he was 11/11 within that distance. Iowa State's Grant Mahoney missed four extra points this season but he did hit 3 field goals over fifty yards, so Mahoney at least has more of a chance from long distance despite his inconsistency. That inconsistency will do in Iowa State, as Minnesota wins by a field goal.
Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee
12/31
The final bowl game of December always provides a compelling game going into the New Year celebration, and this year's version has two traditional powerhouse programs in Virginia Tech and Tennessee. The Hokies looked like a national title contender, but those hopes were derailed by Alabama in the opener. QB Tyrod Taylor completely transformed from a run-pass dual threat into a pocket passer in his junior season. Helping that transformation was the emergence of freshman RB Ryan Williams, who ran for over 1500 yards. The offense has flourished with a talented offensive line, which will be truly tested by Tennessee's defensive front. The star of the Tennessee defense is all-american safety Eric Berry, who will hope to add to his interception total against the improved Taylor. Expect a fair amount of blitzes and liberal play calling from Lane Kiffin, who wants to rattle the Hokies and keep the game on the Volunteers' terms.
Tennessee has dealt with a fair share of controversy in Lane Kiffin's first season, both caused by the coach himself and some of his players. The pre-bowl controversy centers around the use of college students on high school campuses for recruiting, but that should not distract the players from this game. QB Jonathon Crompton has grown a lot since Tennessee's loss to Alabama, but the Volunteer offense will only go as far as RB Montario Hardesty can carry them. Virginia Tech has a championship caliber defense that did not quite live up to the billing in the biggest games, but no team coached by Frank Beamer will allow themselves to be embarassed with weeks to prepare for the bowl game. Virginia Tech should also be able to get pressure on Crompton and force him into some bad decisions, which plays right into the hand of Beamerball. While Kiffin will make a good show in this one, Beamer has been there many times before and he will go back to the defense and special teams well for another bowl victory. Hokies by 9.
Saturday, December 26, 2009
2009 Bowl Preview Part II
Music City Bowl
Kentucky vs. Clemson
12/27
Although much of the Big Blue nation has turned its collective attention to the hardcourt, the Wildcats come into their fourth straight bowl game looking for a fourth straight bowl victory. Kentucky is well-forged by the battles of the SEC, and that will come in very handy against a team which was one play away from the BCS in Clemson. Kentucky's offense matches up fairly well against Clemson's defense, which was gashed twice by Georgia Tech and has been suspect against the run at other times this season. Kentucky will look for RB Derrick Locke to carry the load, especially if freshman QB Morgan Newton gets the start. There is a chance starting QB Mike Hartline, who missed the second half of the season due to injury, will be back for this game. If Hartline can go, there's no question Kentucky will be more balanced on offense. There's no reason to believe Kentucky will not try to contain the Clemson offense by keeping them off the field and keeping the score manageable.
The Tigers are certainly not as motivated to be here after the ACC Championship, but C.J. Spiller may will this team to a victory in his last collegiate start. Look for freshman Kyle Parker to have a much more open playbook after having multiple weeks to prepare for the Kentucky defense. The Wildcats will certainly miss their leader, LB Sam Maxwell, who would have definitely been the spy on Spiller and Parker. Just looking at the talent on the field, Clemson should win this game. However, Kentucky and the SEC just find ways to win bowl games. Look for Kentucky to win this game if they can keep Clemson under 24 points, but if this becomes a shootout, the Tigers will likely run away at some point. I believe Rich Brooks will have a solid gameplan for his defense and will find a way to lead his team to an upset. Kentucky wins by 4.
Independence Bowl
Texas A&M vs. Georgia
12/28
Texas A&M stumbles into this Independence Bowl at 6-6 after starting 3-0 in September. The Aggies have had little trouble on offense, racking up over 460 yards per game on offense. QB Jerrod Johnson is the star of the show, who is just as likely to kill a defense with his accurate passing as he is with his running ability under pressure. The Bulldogs defense will have to decide whether to risk loading up against the run. Johnson is not the only Aggie who can gash the Bulldogs on the ground. RB Christine Michael and RB Cyrus Gray have nearly identical amounts of carries and statistics. The good news for the Bulldogs is that while Georgia struggled mightily on defense overall, opposing rushing attacks did not find a ton of openings. So the match up on this side of the ball will likely come down to whether Johnson can continue to make big plays with his arm. While this seems likely, the Aggies will not run away with this game because...
As good as the Aggies have been on offense, they have been worse on defense. Now obviously defensive statistics can be deflated to very poor standards in the offense-heavy Big XII conference, but the Aggies are really struggling to find the toughness on defense that made the program a real threat to Oklahoma and Texas earlier in the decade. Georgia has rebounded from an awful start to the season by turning to their own rushing game, led by RB Caleb King and RB Washaun Early. Senior QB Joe Cox has also flourished at times in his senior season, but he also can be prone to big mistakes. Georgia will definitely be happy to see a non-SEC defense across the sidelines, but the Bulldogs must also worry as much as the Aggies about their defense keeping them in the game. In a compelling battle of good offenses and poor defenses, the keys to the game are usually special teams and coaching. In this regard, Texas A&M cannot hope to keep up with the talent on the field and the prowess of Mark Richt. Expect Richt to take a good hold on his defense and lead that unit to their best performance all season. Georgia wins by 17.
Eagle Bank Bowl
UCLA vs. Temple
12/29
UCLA has to thank Navy for knocking Army out of this EagleBank bowl, but the task at hand may not be as easy as it looks on its face. Temple has really turned around their program under coach Al Golden and the Owls will not make it easy on a relatively inconsistent Bruin offense. Rick Neheisel is building for the future in 2009 with a pair of freshman leading the offense. QB Kevin Prince and RB Johnathan Franklin are responsible for most of the offense, although don't be surprised if a few backups see some significant playing time in this game, especially if things do not start well. Watch for Adrian Robinson to lead the Owls defense into this game and try to add more sacks to his season total against the relatively inexperienced freshmen stars. Temple is one of the best teams in the country against the run, so this game could come down to whether Prince can avoid the rush and manage the game without making any crucial mistakes.
The Owls come into this game a little disappointed after losing their final game to Ohio, which cost the team a trip to the conference championship game. Nevertheless, Temple will be very happy to be in this game and has to be thrilled to see a similar team from a major conference as the opponent. QB Vaughn Charlton has relied on the Temple running game most of the season, and they have not disappointed except when RB Bernard Pierce missed the Ohio game with a shoulder injury. Pierce and RB Matt Brown will likely share the load in this bowl game, but Pierce is the star of the show. UCLA does have some superstar players on the defensive side to try and slow this rushing attack, including run-stuffing safety Rahim Moore and DT Brian Price. If the Temple offensive line can contain Price, then Temple will likely rush their way to victory. Another slight factor in this game is special teams, which could make all the difference in a defensive slugfest. Thankfully for the Bruins, they have the nation's best kicker in Kai Forbath. Look for Forbath to kick four field goals and do just enough to beat the Owls in a close one. UCLA wins by 3.
Champs Sports Bowl
Miami vs. Wisconsin
12/29
For the first time in half a decade, the Miami Hurricanes became relevant again in a September to remember. Although things got muddled at the beginning of conference play, Randy Shannon kept the team on course and finished strong with nine wins. Now Miami will take a short trip up to Orlando to try and keep the ball rolling against a strong Wisconsin defense. Miami is led by QB Jacory Harris, who is the epitome of a hot and cold quarterback. Harris has thrown for over 3000 yards but also 17 interceptions. Harris could have some issues in this game due to a banged up offensive line. Furthermore, the Badgers defense will likely load up against RB Graig Cooper and RB Damien Berry, daring Harris to beat them through the air. The Hurricanes will live and die by Harris's decisions, but that is not all that much different from what led them to a 9-3 record.
On the other side of the ball, Wisconsin is a smashmouth Big Ten team which will rely on a highly talented running back to carry them to victory. John Clay was nearly impossible to stop as the Big Ten's offensive player of the year, racking up over 1300 yards and 16 touchdowns. Clay not only knows how to smash into the line and move defenders, he can break out with speed at times as well. QB Scott Tolzien was an unsung hero this year, throwing the ball around for 16 touchdowns of his own. Each of these teams stacks up very equally in terms of offensive and defensive output, but the contrasting styles will be interesting to see in action. Conventional logic says the team who can domiante the clock with a strong running game will win this type of battle, but Miami looked very much improved on defense down the stretch. While Wisconsin will not suffer a shocking 29 point blowout like last season's Champs Sports Bowl, Miami will finish its turnaround with a tenth win. Hurricanes win by 6.
Humanitarian Bowl
Bowling Green vs. Idaho
12/30
As the lovely blue turf cannot host the hometown Broncos, the Humanitarian Bowl takes the next best thing by grabbing in-state rival Idaho. Idaho will welcome Bowling Green to the blue turf, and the Falcons bring the best receiver in the country Freddie Barnes with them. Barnes will almost certainly set the NCAA record for receptions in a season in the Humanitarian Bowl, and double teams have not discouraged the Falcons from going to him this season. QB Tyler Sheehan has really thrown the ball all over the field, and the Falcons will likely not get any kind of rushing game going. With the exception of a couple of conference losses, the lack of a rushing attack has not mattered. That could change in the one bowl game where winter weather and nasty conditions are an annual ritual. In any event, Bowling Green is on a four game win streak and hopes to keep the momentum going against a sturggling Vandals defense.
The Vandals lost their final three regular season games, including a blowout on this blue turf against Boise State. Idaho also throws the ball all over the field with QB Nathan Enderle. Enderle has a lot of help from a trio of running backs led by DeMaundray Woolridge. While the Vandals are not a juggernaut rushing the ball, the balance they bring on the offensive side of the ball should give the Falcons defense fits. The Falcons were fairly strong against the run this season, but look for the story to change if Enderle breaks down the Falcon coverage a couple of times in the first half. Bowling Green has more momentum, but the home field advantage and the rushing game will come in more than handy as the Vandals strike a 7 point win in this one.
Holiday Bowl
Arizona vs. Nebraska
12/30
The Holiday Bowl generally finds a way to match up two very good teams who just missed out on the BCS, and this year is no exception. Arizona lost a late lead and fell in double overtime to Oregon, while Nebraska had beaten Texas before a second was placed back on the clock to give the Longhorns a game winning field goal. Nebraska comes into this game with an offense that certainly is not all that effective. QB Zac Lee was prone to mistakes and the Cornhuskers were not able to pull together much more than 250 yards of offense over the latter half of the season. If Nebraska will score any points against a decent Wildcat defense, it will come on the ground with Roy Helu. Arizona was able to completely stuff the many talented running backs of USC, so this match up all hinges on the offensive line of Nebraska. If the Cornhuskers do not fall apart, they may score just enough points to win.
The much more compelling battle will be Nebraska's top notch defense against the Wildcats offense. QB Nick Foles has thrived behind a good offensive line this season, spreading the ball around to many receivers including Juron Criner. A pair of running backs Keola Antolin and Nic Grigsby split the duties in the backfield and have found moderate success this season. However, Nebraska is the second ranked defense in the country and showed their muscle in completely dominating Texas a few weeks ago. DT Ndamukong Suh has taken on double teams and all comers on any offensive line, leading his defense and surprising the nation with a fourth place Heisman Trophy finish. Suh makes good offensive lines look silly, and Nick Foles may see more pressure than he's been accustomed to in this game. If that happens, Foles might just make the mistake or two than Nebraska has been able to thrive on. Expect the new Blackshirts to determine the course of this game. Nebraska holds onto a lead this time around, winning by 4.
Kentucky vs. Clemson
12/27
Although much of the Big Blue nation has turned its collective attention to the hardcourt, the Wildcats come into their fourth straight bowl game looking for a fourth straight bowl victory. Kentucky is well-forged by the battles of the SEC, and that will come in very handy against a team which was one play away from the BCS in Clemson. Kentucky's offense matches up fairly well against Clemson's defense, which was gashed twice by Georgia Tech and has been suspect against the run at other times this season. Kentucky will look for RB Derrick Locke to carry the load, especially if freshman QB Morgan Newton gets the start. There is a chance starting QB Mike Hartline, who missed the second half of the season due to injury, will be back for this game. If Hartline can go, there's no question Kentucky will be more balanced on offense. There's no reason to believe Kentucky will not try to contain the Clemson offense by keeping them off the field and keeping the score manageable.
The Tigers are certainly not as motivated to be here after the ACC Championship, but C.J. Spiller may will this team to a victory in his last collegiate start. Look for freshman Kyle Parker to have a much more open playbook after having multiple weeks to prepare for the Kentucky defense. The Wildcats will certainly miss their leader, LB Sam Maxwell, who would have definitely been the spy on Spiller and Parker. Just looking at the talent on the field, Clemson should win this game. However, Kentucky and the SEC just find ways to win bowl games. Look for Kentucky to win this game if they can keep Clemson under 24 points, but if this becomes a shootout, the Tigers will likely run away at some point. I believe Rich Brooks will have a solid gameplan for his defense and will find a way to lead his team to an upset. Kentucky wins by 4.
Independence Bowl
Texas A&M vs. Georgia
12/28
Texas A&M stumbles into this Independence Bowl at 6-6 after starting 3-0 in September. The Aggies have had little trouble on offense, racking up over 460 yards per game on offense. QB Jerrod Johnson is the star of the show, who is just as likely to kill a defense with his accurate passing as he is with his running ability under pressure. The Bulldogs defense will have to decide whether to risk loading up against the run. Johnson is not the only Aggie who can gash the Bulldogs on the ground. RB Christine Michael and RB Cyrus Gray have nearly identical amounts of carries and statistics. The good news for the Bulldogs is that while Georgia struggled mightily on defense overall, opposing rushing attacks did not find a ton of openings. So the match up on this side of the ball will likely come down to whether Johnson can continue to make big plays with his arm. While this seems likely, the Aggies will not run away with this game because...
As good as the Aggies have been on offense, they have been worse on defense. Now obviously defensive statistics can be deflated to very poor standards in the offense-heavy Big XII conference, but the Aggies are really struggling to find the toughness on defense that made the program a real threat to Oklahoma and Texas earlier in the decade. Georgia has rebounded from an awful start to the season by turning to their own rushing game, led by RB Caleb King and RB Washaun Early. Senior QB Joe Cox has also flourished at times in his senior season, but he also can be prone to big mistakes. Georgia will definitely be happy to see a non-SEC defense across the sidelines, but the Bulldogs must also worry as much as the Aggies about their defense keeping them in the game. In a compelling battle of good offenses and poor defenses, the keys to the game are usually special teams and coaching. In this regard, Texas A&M cannot hope to keep up with the talent on the field and the prowess of Mark Richt. Expect Richt to take a good hold on his defense and lead that unit to their best performance all season. Georgia wins by 17.
Eagle Bank Bowl
UCLA vs. Temple
12/29
UCLA has to thank Navy for knocking Army out of this EagleBank bowl, but the task at hand may not be as easy as it looks on its face. Temple has really turned around their program under coach Al Golden and the Owls will not make it easy on a relatively inconsistent Bruin offense. Rick Neheisel is building for the future in 2009 with a pair of freshman leading the offense. QB Kevin Prince and RB Johnathan Franklin are responsible for most of the offense, although don't be surprised if a few backups see some significant playing time in this game, especially if things do not start well. Watch for Adrian Robinson to lead the Owls defense into this game and try to add more sacks to his season total against the relatively inexperienced freshmen stars. Temple is one of the best teams in the country against the run, so this game could come down to whether Prince can avoid the rush and manage the game without making any crucial mistakes.
The Owls come into this game a little disappointed after losing their final game to Ohio, which cost the team a trip to the conference championship game. Nevertheless, Temple will be very happy to be in this game and has to be thrilled to see a similar team from a major conference as the opponent. QB Vaughn Charlton has relied on the Temple running game most of the season, and they have not disappointed except when RB Bernard Pierce missed the Ohio game with a shoulder injury. Pierce and RB Matt Brown will likely share the load in this bowl game, but Pierce is the star of the show. UCLA does have some superstar players on the defensive side to try and slow this rushing attack, including run-stuffing safety Rahim Moore and DT Brian Price. If the Temple offensive line can contain Price, then Temple will likely rush their way to victory. Another slight factor in this game is special teams, which could make all the difference in a defensive slugfest. Thankfully for the Bruins, they have the nation's best kicker in Kai Forbath. Look for Forbath to kick four field goals and do just enough to beat the Owls in a close one. UCLA wins by 3.
Champs Sports Bowl
Miami vs. Wisconsin
12/29
For the first time in half a decade, the Miami Hurricanes became relevant again in a September to remember. Although things got muddled at the beginning of conference play, Randy Shannon kept the team on course and finished strong with nine wins. Now Miami will take a short trip up to Orlando to try and keep the ball rolling against a strong Wisconsin defense. Miami is led by QB Jacory Harris, who is the epitome of a hot and cold quarterback. Harris has thrown for over 3000 yards but also 17 interceptions. Harris could have some issues in this game due to a banged up offensive line. Furthermore, the Badgers defense will likely load up against RB Graig Cooper and RB Damien Berry, daring Harris to beat them through the air. The Hurricanes will live and die by Harris's decisions, but that is not all that much different from what led them to a 9-3 record.
On the other side of the ball, Wisconsin is a smashmouth Big Ten team which will rely on a highly talented running back to carry them to victory. John Clay was nearly impossible to stop as the Big Ten's offensive player of the year, racking up over 1300 yards and 16 touchdowns. Clay not only knows how to smash into the line and move defenders, he can break out with speed at times as well. QB Scott Tolzien was an unsung hero this year, throwing the ball around for 16 touchdowns of his own. Each of these teams stacks up very equally in terms of offensive and defensive output, but the contrasting styles will be interesting to see in action. Conventional logic says the team who can domiante the clock with a strong running game will win this type of battle, but Miami looked very much improved on defense down the stretch. While Wisconsin will not suffer a shocking 29 point blowout like last season's Champs Sports Bowl, Miami will finish its turnaround with a tenth win. Hurricanes win by 6.
Humanitarian Bowl
Bowling Green vs. Idaho
12/30
As the lovely blue turf cannot host the hometown Broncos, the Humanitarian Bowl takes the next best thing by grabbing in-state rival Idaho. Idaho will welcome Bowling Green to the blue turf, and the Falcons bring the best receiver in the country Freddie Barnes with them. Barnes will almost certainly set the NCAA record for receptions in a season in the Humanitarian Bowl, and double teams have not discouraged the Falcons from going to him this season. QB Tyler Sheehan has really thrown the ball all over the field, and the Falcons will likely not get any kind of rushing game going. With the exception of a couple of conference losses, the lack of a rushing attack has not mattered. That could change in the one bowl game where winter weather and nasty conditions are an annual ritual. In any event, Bowling Green is on a four game win streak and hopes to keep the momentum going against a sturggling Vandals defense.
The Vandals lost their final three regular season games, including a blowout on this blue turf against Boise State. Idaho also throws the ball all over the field with QB Nathan Enderle. Enderle has a lot of help from a trio of running backs led by DeMaundray Woolridge. While the Vandals are not a juggernaut rushing the ball, the balance they bring on the offensive side of the ball should give the Falcons defense fits. The Falcons were fairly strong against the run this season, but look for the story to change if Enderle breaks down the Falcon coverage a couple of times in the first half. Bowling Green has more momentum, but the home field advantage and the rushing game will come in more than handy as the Vandals strike a 7 point win in this one.
Holiday Bowl
Arizona vs. Nebraska
12/30
The Holiday Bowl generally finds a way to match up two very good teams who just missed out on the BCS, and this year is no exception. Arizona lost a late lead and fell in double overtime to Oregon, while Nebraska had beaten Texas before a second was placed back on the clock to give the Longhorns a game winning field goal. Nebraska comes into this game with an offense that certainly is not all that effective. QB Zac Lee was prone to mistakes and the Cornhuskers were not able to pull together much more than 250 yards of offense over the latter half of the season. If Nebraska will score any points against a decent Wildcat defense, it will come on the ground with Roy Helu. Arizona was able to completely stuff the many talented running backs of USC, so this match up all hinges on the offensive line of Nebraska. If the Cornhuskers do not fall apart, they may score just enough points to win.
The much more compelling battle will be Nebraska's top notch defense against the Wildcats offense. QB Nick Foles has thrived behind a good offensive line this season, spreading the ball around to many receivers including Juron Criner. A pair of running backs Keola Antolin and Nic Grigsby split the duties in the backfield and have found moderate success this season. However, Nebraska is the second ranked defense in the country and showed their muscle in completely dominating Texas a few weeks ago. DT Ndamukong Suh has taken on double teams and all comers on any offensive line, leading his defense and surprising the nation with a fourth place Heisman Trophy finish. Suh makes good offensive lines look silly, and Nick Foles may see more pressure than he's been accustomed to in this game. If that happens, Foles might just make the mistake or two than Nebraska has been able to thrive on. Expect the new Blackshirts to determine the course of this game. Nebraska holds onto a lead this time around, winning by 4.
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
2009 Bowl Preview Part I
New Mexico Bowl
Fresno State vs. Wyoming
December 19
SCS.com Fresno State comes into this game for the second straight year, having dropped a close decision to Colorado State last year. This year's version of the Bulldogs is led by RB Ryan Mathews, the country's leading rusher in yards per game. Mathews brought a smash-mouth brand of football that dominated the WAC this season. Helping Mathews is junior QB Ryan Colburn, who threw for over 2300 yards and 18 touchdowns. The Bulldog offense pulled a treat in their bowl stocking by facing Wyoming's defense, which was slashed for over 170 yards per game on the ground. Nevertheless, Wyoming came up with big plays when they absolutey had to in their six victories, so perhaps the Cowboys defense will play a better game than usual and slow the Fresno attack. In all likelihood, Fresno State will be having very long and dominating drives in this one.
For Wyoming, they come into this game with six blowout losses and some very close wins, but the Cowboys earned a rare bowl in a coach's first season in the MWC. The Cowboys throw the ball around first and run later, and their offensive unit is led by freshman quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels. However, Samuels has built up a lot of yards while not really seeing a lot of action in the redzone, only nabbing seven touchdowns on the season. Look for main target WR David Leonard to feast on the medicore defensive backfield Fresno State brigns into this game. In all reality, Wyoming's offense has a chance to show off against the Fresno State defense, but they will need their own defense to step up and give them opportunities. In a game like this, you have to favor the more experienced coaching staff (Pat Hill) and the better clock-management running game. Fresno State wins this game going away by 21, not leaving anything to the fourth quarter this season.
St. Petersburg Bowl
Central Florida vs. Rutgers
December 19
It's a battle of the Knights as UCF takes on Rutgers. UCF enters this game as hot as most teams in the country, finishing with five wins in their final six games, including an upset of Houston. Although coach George O'Leary has experienced some ups and downs in his Golden Knights career, the program appears headed in the right direction and a bowl game close to home will only help. Senior QB Brett Hodges will be looking to finish his career the way he finished his senior season, with an almost 70% completion rating over his last three games. The Rutgers defense was gashed agaisnt Big East competition, and more specifically, pass-happy teams Cincinnati and Syracuse. While UCF can run the ball behind 1000 yard rusher Brynn Harvey, the Golden Knights may be better served by airing it out and testing the Scarlet Knights defense.
On the other side of the ball, Rutgers struggled down the stretch with tough losses to Syracuse and West Virginia. Nevertheless, Greg Schiano's kids are headed to an unprecedented sixth straight bowl and the previous experiences should serve them well in a pseudo-road game. Rutgers had even more struggles than UCF on offense this season, but their leader is RB Joe Martinek. Martinek will be hoping for his tenth touchdown of his sophomore season in the bowl game, and will of course be trying to take pressure off freshman QB Tom Savage. The bad news for the Scarlet Knights is that UCF was one of the top five teams in the nation against the run, while DE Bruce Miller may very well have a future on Sundays with his conference-leading play on the line. Look for Miller and company to really force the issue by pressuring Savage and taking their chances against the long bomb. Although Rutgers has more talent on the field, the matchup and the virtual home field favors UCF. Golden Knights take down the Scarlet version by 2.
New Orleans Bowl
Southern Miss vs. Middle Tennessee State
December 20
Another repeat performance in an early bowl game as Southern Miss comes back to defend their victory last season in New Orleans. Southern Miss has rebounded from an early three game swoon caused by the loss of their starting quarterback for the season. However, Martevious Young took over the offense and Larry Fedora was able to get the all-important game management from Young. Young has an astounding 13-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio, but a lot of the pressure has been taken off by a slew of talented wide recievers led by DeAndre Brown. MTSU boasts the best defense in the Sun Belt, and DE Chris McCoy will severly test the ability of the Southern Miss line. Expect some sacks and some big plays when Southern Miss has the ball, in what is one of the better match ups of an offensive unit and a defensive unit of the bowl season.
Middle Tennessee State also struggled early in the season, but the Blue Raiders are now on a six game winning streak after getting into regular Sun Belt conference play. Offensive coordinator Tony Franklin is one of the stars of his trade, and he has proven it this year by leading MTSU to the top echelon of offenses in Division I-A. The key to the Blue Raiders wide open attack is QB Dwight Dasher, who threw for over 2600 yards and rushed for nearly 1000. The Southern Miss defense has sturggled this season but has been carried in some shootouts by their prolific offense. With Dasher coming up next for the Golden Eagles defense, the signs point to another shootout here. Expect Dasher to get some big plays from his defense, as Middle Tennessee State earns a very rare bowl victory for the Sun Belt Conference. Blue Raiders win the New Orleans by 3.
Las Vegas Bowl
Oregon State vs. BYU
December 22
And speaking of shootouts, Las Vegas may outduel New Orleans in that department this week. In fact, this may be the best bowl game outside of the BCS with two top-15 caliber teams. BYU comes into this game with ten wins for the fourth straight season, and the Cougars are led by senior QB Max Hall. Hall has seen the biggest glory in his senior season of knocking off mighty Oklahoma, and also some of the lowest moments of his career in home losses to Florida State and TCU. Hall will be targeting his brother-in-law TE Dennis Pitta perhaps even more than usual in their final collegiate game, as Oregon State has not had to face a talent like Pitta in that position all season. RB Harvey Unga will try to get the ball moving on the ground, which may be crucial in a battle of two teams with tons of passing offense. If the civil war proved anything, it's that BYU will be able to score some points against this Beavers defense.
Meanwhile, Oregon State comes into this game with questionable motivation after losing their Rose Bowl dream for the second straight season in the first week of December. What the Beavers lack in motivation, they more than make up for in offensive talent. QB Sean Canfield was the best quarterback in the Pac-10 this season outside of maybe Jake Locker, and he gets tons of help from the Rodgers brothers. Jacquizz rushed for over 1300 yards and 20 touchdowns, while James broke the 1000-yard receiving mark against Oregon. Look for OSU to test the Cougars defensive front early and often in this game, as the Beavers understand more than anyone how important every possession in a bowl game can be. The Beavers have won five straight bowl games, but there's just something about BYU that indicates this game will end up a lot like OSU's last game. Oregon State loses their five game bowl winning streak to a highly-motivated BYU squad. Cougars by 6.
Poinsettia Bowl
Utah vs. California
December 23
It's not often that a freshman quarterback steals a junior's job in midseason, but that's what Utah experienced this season as Jordan Wynn brings the Utes into the Poinsettia Bowl. Wynn has been good in his five starts leading the Utes offense, although he obviously had some struggles in losses to BYU and TCU. RB Eddie Wide will look to carry most of the load against a Golden Bears defense that could be very bad at times this season. Although the lights certainly are not as bright as last year's Sugar Bowl win over Alabama, don't expect Utah to quit on this bowl game against another major conference opponent. Coach Kyle Wittingham will not let the Utes quit, especially with next season to prepare for.
Cal does have one thing in common with Utah, that being a blowout loss to Oregon that changed the course of both these teams' seasons. Jeff Tedford saw his team be unbelievably inconsistent this season on offense. The Golden Bears put up a respectable 351 points in 12 games, but in three losses to Washington, Oregon, and USC, they managed only 16 total. If Cal gets RB Javhid Best back from his concussion, the Golden Bears should not have another letdown against a Utes defense that is weak against the run. Nevertheless, Utah has a very strong defensive backfield and should produce a turnover or two against QB Kevin Riley. This game is very evenly matched on paper, and it all comes down to which California team shows up to play. While Cal will get a better performance than their clunkers, Utah will rebound to win this game by 7.
Hawaii Bowl
Nevada vs. SMU
December 24
The Hawaii Bowl features a great contrast of styles, as Neavada brings the best rushing offense in the country to face June Jones's top-caliber passing attack. The Wolfpack have three (yes three) 1000-yard rushers thanks to their pistol offense. QB Colin Kaepernick is the leader of the offense, but there's absolutely no reason to discount either running back Vai Taua and Luke Lippincott. The Wolfpack never quite got close enough to really threaten Boise State in the season finale, but Nevada will put up some points against SMU. June Jones has always led his defenses to rely on their offenses, and this SMU team is no different. Look for Nevada to hold the ball for 35 minutes or more in this game.
Meanwhile, Nevada's terrible pass defense will face a nightmare matchup versus SMU's wide open passing attack. One good thing for the Wolfpack is that they will be facing a freshman quarterback Kyle Padron, who replaced Bo Levi Mitchell in October due to injury. Padron has thrown for a lot of yards, but the red zone offense turns into Shawnbrey McNeal-time as the running back has racked up nine touchdowns this season. While June Jones has to be salivating over facing this defense, the fact remains that SMU is up against a team with better talent and SMU is the overachiever this season. Still, Jones could come up with some magic in his old home of Hawaii. The old adage says that a good running game trumps a good passing game. While I don't know that the old adage works anymore, in this game it will prove true as the Wolfpack win by 18.
Little Ceasers Bowl
Marhsall vs. Ohio
December 26
Well unless you are a true fan of college football, the bowl game in Detroit between former MAC rivals is a tough sell. Marshall comes into this game squeaking out their first bowl berth in 2009, but it was not enough to prevent coach Mark Snyder from stepping down. The Thundering Herd will be led by their defensive coordinator in this one, and the disarray of the coaches looking for new jobs and the players struggling at the end of the season will be tough to overcome. RB Darius Marhsall had a good year rushing, and he will hope to have a field day against a weak Bobcats run defense. For QB Brian Anderson and his talented wide recievers, a key will be holding onto the ball, as the Bobcats are the most opportunistic defense, forcing a full 3 per game. With all the turmoil, expect Marhsall to run a very basic offense and one that Frank Solich will have his Bobcats prepared for. If the Bobcats defense could control Central Michigan, they will control Marshall.
Ohio comes into this game off a loss on the same Ford Field to Central Michigan. Just like the Chippewas, now the Thundering Herd have lost their coach before a bowl game. This time the Bobcats will have senior QB Theo Scott back to healthy, which makes the Bobcats offense far more potent. Scott will be targeting WR Taylor Price and WR Terrence McCrae with most of his balls, although look for RB Chris Garrett to make some plays coming out of the backfield. Marshall struggled on defense all season and gave up more points than their offense scored, so this could be a breakout opportunity for a Bobcat offense that's not quite lived up to expectations in a 9-4 campaign. Ohio wins this game going away by 17, which is a blowout by their standards.
Meineke Car Care Bowl
Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina
December 26
Pittsburgh went from the penthouse and a Top 10 ranking to Charlotte in a quick 61 minutes on the football field. West Virginia shocked the Panthers with a game winning field goal and then Pittsburgh could not hold onto a 21 point lead against the BCS-bound Cincinnati Bearcats. However, Dave Wannstedt is a good coach and he will have the Panthers back on track after two tough losses. While QB Bill Stull was the star for most of the season, the real workhorse of the Panther offense is RB Dion Lewis. Lewis rushed for over 1600 yards this season and has 16 touchdowns to show for his efforts. What's scary is that Lewis is only a freshman with even more upward potential. Nevertheless, expect this bowl game to be all about sending Bill Stull out with a win. The Tar Heels boast one of the best defenses in the country, and there are no glaring weaknesses for the Panthers to attack. Look for UNC to hold the Panthers down in the twenties for points, which may give the Tar Heels enough chance to win.
North Carolina also comes into this game off a disappointing loss, a comeback by rival NC State. The Tar Heels offense has been a problem this season, but QB T.J. Yates has shown some promise at times. Look for DE Greg Romeus to try and add to his eight sacks on the season against Yates. While the Tar Heel defense will keep UNC in the game as usual, Pittsburgh will feast on the Tar Heel offense after having to face WVU and UC in back to back weeks. The Panthers overcome any disappointment over the end of their season by knocking out the hometown team in Charlotte. Pitt by 7.
Emerald Bowl
Boston College vs. USC
December 26
Well Boston College is in a familiar place in a bowl game in late December, but they pulled a shocker of a rough opponent in USC. The Eagles will try to knock off the Men of Troy, which will be a tall task even in a down year. Coach Frank Spaziani had a much better rookie season than most expected while breaking in a new QB Dave Shinskie. RB Montel Harris will continue to carry the load agaisnt USC, but the Trojans have been more vulnerable against the pass this season. If the Eagles believe they can win by running first, the Trojans will look a lot better than their record indicates.
Things are certainly not Rose-y in Los Angeles, as Pete Carroll is having to deal with real adversity for the first time in his nine years. While USC will be adjusting to a non-BCS bowl for the first time since 2001, don't expect the Trojans to just lie down and feel bad for themselves. These Trojans are hopping mad, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Freshman QB Matt Barkley leads the offense, but RB Joe McKnight is the most talented player that will step on the field in this game. McKnight will lead a stable of running backs that will try to dominate the possession and expose the Eagles defensive front. While the Trojans will not be taking home any big trophies after a sixth place finish in the Pac-10, they can get a good jump start on next year with a win in the Emerald Bowl. USC wins this one by 24.
Fresno State vs. Wyoming
December 19
SCS.com Fresno State comes into this game for the second straight year, having dropped a close decision to Colorado State last year. This year's version of the Bulldogs is led by RB Ryan Mathews, the country's leading rusher in yards per game. Mathews brought a smash-mouth brand of football that dominated the WAC this season. Helping Mathews is junior QB Ryan Colburn, who threw for over 2300 yards and 18 touchdowns. The Bulldog offense pulled a treat in their bowl stocking by facing Wyoming's defense, which was slashed for over 170 yards per game on the ground. Nevertheless, Wyoming came up with big plays when they absolutey had to in their six victories, so perhaps the Cowboys defense will play a better game than usual and slow the Fresno attack. In all likelihood, Fresno State will be having very long and dominating drives in this one.
For Wyoming, they come into this game with six blowout losses and some very close wins, but the Cowboys earned a rare bowl in a coach's first season in the MWC. The Cowboys throw the ball around first and run later, and their offensive unit is led by freshman quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels. However, Samuels has built up a lot of yards while not really seeing a lot of action in the redzone, only nabbing seven touchdowns on the season. Look for main target WR David Leonard to feast on the medicore defensive backfield Fresno State brigns into this game. In all reality, Wyoming's offense has a chance to show off against the Fresno State defense, but they will need their own defense to step up and give them opportunities. In a game like this, you have to favor the more experienced coaching staff (Pat Hill) and the better clock-management running game. Fresno State wins this game going away by 21, not leaving anything to the fourth quarter this season.
St. Petersburg Bowl
Central Florida vs. Rutgers
December 19
It's a battle of the Knights as UCF takes on Rutgers. UCF enters this game as hot as most teams in the country, finishing with five wins in their final six games, including an upset of Houston. Although coach George O'Leary has experienced some ups and downs in his Golden Knights career, the program appears headed in the right direction and a bowl game close to home will only help. Senior QB Brett Hodges will be looking to finish his career the way he finished his senior season, with an almost 70% completion rating over his last three games. The Rutgers defense was gashed agaisnt Big East competition, and more specifically, pass-happy teams Cincinnati and Syracuse. While UCF can run the ball behind 1000 yard rusher Brynn Harvey, the Golden Knights may be better served by airing it out and testing the Scarlet Knights defense.
On the other side of the ball, Rutgers struggled down the stretch with tough losses to Syracuse and West Virginia. Nevertheless, Greg Schiano's kids are headed to an unprecedented sixth straight bowl and the previous experiences should serve them well in a pseudo-road game. Rutgers had even more struggles than UCF on offense this season, but their leader is RB Joe Martinek. Martinek will be hoping for his tenth touchdown of his sophomore season in the bowl game, and will of course be trying to take pressure off freshman QB Tom Savage. The bad news for the Scarlet Knights is that UCF was one of the top five teams in the nation against the run, while DE Bruce Miller may very well have a future on Sundays with his conference-leading play on the line. Look for Miller and company to really force the issue by pressuring Savage and taking their chances against the long bomb. Although Rutgers has more talent on the field, the matchup and the virtual home field favors UCF. Golden Knights take down the Scarlet version by 2.
New Orleans Bowl
Southern Miss vs. Middle Tennessee State
December 20
Another repeat performance in an early bowl game as Southern Miss comes back to defend their victory last season in New Orleans. Southern Miss has rebounded from an early three game swoon caused by the loss of their starting quarterback for the season. However, Martevious Young took over the offense and Larry Fedora was able to get the all-important game management from Young. Young has an astounding 13-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio, but a lot of the pressure has been taken off by a slew of talented wide recievers led by DeAndre Brown. MTSU boasts the best defense in the Sun Belt, and DE Chris McCoy will severly test the ability of the Southern Miss line. Expect some sacks and some big plays when Southern Miss has the ball, in what is one of the better match ups of an offensive unit and a defensive unit of the bowl season.
Middle Tennessee State also struggled early in the season, but the Blue Raiders are now on a six game winning streak after getting into regular Sun Belt conference play. Offensive coordinator Tony Franklin is one of the stars of his trade, and he has proven it this year by leading MTSU to the top echelon of offenses in Division I-A. The key to the Blue Raiders wide open attack is QB Dwight Dasher, who threw for over 2600 yards and rushed for nearly 1000. The Southern Miss defense has sturggled this season but has been carried in some shootouts by their prolific offense. With Dasher coming up next for the Golden Eagles defense, the signs point to another shootout here. Expect Dasher to get some big plays from his defense, as Middle Tennessee State earns a very rare bowl victory for the Sun Belt Conference. Blue Raiders win the New Orleans by 3.
Las Vegas Bowl
Oregon State vs. BYU
December 22
And speaking of shootouts, Las Vegas may outduel New Orleans in that department this week. In fact, this may be the best bowl game outside of the BCS with two top-15 caliber teams. BYU comes into this game with ten wins for the fourth straight season, and the Cougars are led by senior QB Max Hall. Hall has seen the biggest glory in his senior season of knocking off mighty Oklahoma, and also some of the lowest moments of his career in home losses to Florida State and TCU. Hall will be targeting his brother-in-law TE Dennis Pitta perhaps even more than usual in their final collegiate game, as Oregon State has not had to face a talent like Pitta in that position all season. RB Harvey Unga will try to get the ball moving on the ground, which may be crucial in a battle of two teams with tons of passing offense. If the civil war proved anything, it's that BYU will be able to score some points against this Beavers defense.
Meanwhile, Oregon State comes into this game with questionable motivation after losing their Rose Bowl dream for the second straight season in the first week of December. What the Beavers lack in motivation, they more than make up for in offensive talent. QB Sean Canfield was the best quarterback in the Pac-10 this season outside of maybe Jake Locker, and he gets tons of help from the Rodgers brothers. Jacquizz rushed for over 1300 yards and 20 touchdowns, while James broke the 1000-yard receiving mark against Oregon. Look for OSU to test the Cougars defensive front early and often in this game, as the Beavers understand more than anyone how important every possession in a bowl game can be. The Beavers have won five straight bowl games, but there's just something about BYU that indicates this game will end up a lot like OSU's last game. Oregon State loses their five game bowl winning streak to a highly-motivated BYU squad. Cougars by 6.
Poinsettia Bowl
Utah vs. California
December 23
It's not often that a freshman quarterback steals a junior's job in midseason, but that's what Utah experienced this season as Jordan Wynn brings the Utes into the Poinsettia Bowl. Wynn has been good in his five starts leading the Utes offense, although he obviously had some struggles in losses to BYU and TCU. RB Eddie Wide will look to carry most of the load against a Golden Bears defense that could be very bad at times this season. Although the lights certainly are not as bright as last year's Sugar Bowl win over Alabama, don't expect Utah to quit on this bowl game against another major conference opponent. Coach Kyle Wittingham will not let the Utes quit, especially with next season to prepare for.
Cal does have one thing in common with Utah, that being a blowout loss to Oregon that changed the course of both these teams' seasons. Jeff Tedford saw his team be unbelievably inconsistent this season on offense. The Golden Bears put up a respectable 351 points in 12 games, but in three losses to Washington, Oregon, and USC, they managed only 16 total. If Cal gets RB Javhid Best back from his concussion, the Golden Bears should not have another letdown against a Utes defense that is weak against the run. Nevertheless, Utah has a very strong defensive backfield and should produce a turnover or two against QB Kevin Riley. This game is very evenly matched on paper, and it all comes down to which California team shows up to play. While Cal will get a better performance than their clunkers, Utah will rebound to win this game by 7.
Hawaii Bowl
Nevada vs. SMU
December 24
The Hawaii Bowl features a great contrast of styles, as Neavada brings the best rushing offense in the country to face June Jones's top-caliber passing attack. The Wolfpack have three (yes three) 1000-yard rushers thanks to their pistol offense. QB Colin Kaepernick is the leader of the offense, but there's absolutely no reason to discount either running back Vai Taua and Luke Lippincott. The Wolfpack never quite got close enough to really threaten Boise State in the season finale, but Nevada will put up some points against SMU. June Jones has always led his defenses to rely on their offenses, and this SMU team is no different. Look for Nevada to hold the ball for 35 minutes or more in this game.
Meanwhile, Nevada's terrible pass defense will face a nightmare matchup versus SMU's wide open passing attack. One good thing for the Wolfpack is that they will be facing a freshman quarterback Kyle Padron, who replaced Bo Levi Mitchell in October due to injury. Padron has thrown for a lot of yards, but the red zone offense turns into Shawnbrey McNeal-time as the running back has racked up nine touchdowns this season. While June Jones has to be salivating over facing this defense, the fact remains that SMU is up against a team with better talent and SMU is the overachiever this season. Still, Jones could come up with some magic in his old home of Hawaii. The old adage says that a good running game trumps a good passing game. While I don't know that the old adage works anymore, in this game it will prove true as the Wolfpack win by 18.
Little Ceasers Bowl
Marhsall vs. Ohio
December 26
Well unless you are a true fan of college football, the bowl game in Detroit between former MAC rivals is a tough sell. Marshall comes into this game squeaking out their first bowl berth in 2009, but it was not enough to prevent coach Mark Snyder from stepping down. The Thundering Herd will be led by their defensive coordinator in this one, and the disarray of the coaches looking for new jobs and the players struggling at the end of the season will be tough to overcome. RB Darius Marhsall had a good year rushing, and he will hope to have a field day against a weak Bobcats run defense. For QB Brian Anderson and his talented wide recievers, a key will be holding onto the ball, as the Bobcats are the most opportunistic defense, forcing a full 3 per game. With all the turmoil, expect Marhsall to run a very basic offense and one that Frank Solich will have his Bobcats prepared for. If the Bobcats defense could control Central Michigan, they will control Marshall.
Ohio comes into this game off a loss on the same Ford Field to Central Michigan. Just like the Chippewas, now the Thundering Herd have lost their coach before a bowl game. This time the Bobcats will have senior QB Theo Scott back to healthy, which makes the Bobcats offense far more potent. Scott will be targeting WR Taylor Price and WR Terrence McCrae with most of his balls, although look for RB Chris Garrett to make some plays coming out of the backfield. Marshall struggled on defense all season and gave up more points than their offense scored, so this could be a breakout opportunity for a Bobcat offense that's not quite lived up to expectations in a 9-4 campaign. Ohio wins this game going away by 17, which is a blowout by their standards.
Meineke Car Care Bowl
Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina
December 26
Pittsburgh went from the penthouse and a Top 10 ranking to Charlotte in a quick 61 minutes on the football field. West Virginia shocked the Panthers with a game winning field goal and then Pittsburgh could not hold onto a 21 point lead against the BCS-bound Cincinnati Bearcats. However, Dave Wannstedt is a good coach and he will have the Panthers back on track after two tough losses. While QB Bill Stull was the star for most of the season, the real workhorse of the Panther offense is RB Dion Lewis. Lewis rushed for over 1600 yards this season and has 16 touchdowns to show for his efforts. What's scary is that Lewis is only a freshman with even more upward potential. Nevertheless, expect this bowl game to be all about sending Bill Stull out with a win. The Tar Heels boast one of the best defenses in the country, and there are no glaring weaknesses for the Panthers to attack. Look for UNC to hold the Panthers down in the twenties for points, which may give the Tar Heels enough chance to win.
North Carolina also comes into this game off a disappointing loss, a comeback by rival NC State. The Tar Heels offense has been a problem this season, but QB T.J. Yates has shown some promise at times. Look for DE Greg Romeus to try and add to his eight sacks on the season against Yates. While the Tar Heel defense will keep UNC in the game as usual, Pittsburgh will feast on the Tar Heel offense after having to face WVU and UC in back to back weeks. The Panthers overcome any disappointment over the end of their season by knocking out the hometown team in Charlotte. Pitt by 7.
Emerald Bowl
Boston College vs. USC
December 26
Well Boston College is in a familiar place in a bowl game in late December, but they pulled a shocker of a rough opponent in USC. The Eagles will try to knock off the Men of Troy, which will be a tall task even in a down year. Coach Frank Spaziani had a much better rookie season than most expected while breaking in a new QB Dave Shinskie. RB Montel Harris will continue to carry the load agaisnt USC, but the Trojans have been more vulnerable against the pass this season. If the Eagles believe they can win by running first, the Trojans will look a lot better than their record indicates.
Things are certainly not Rose-y in Los Angeles, as Pete Carroll is having to deal with real adversity for the first time in his nine years. While USC will be adjusting to a non-BCS bowl for the first time since 2001, don't expect the Trojans to just lie down and feel bad for themselves. These Trojans are hopping mad, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Freshman QB Matt Barkley leads the offense, but RB Joe McKnight is the most talented player that will step on the field in this game. McKnight will lead a stable of running backs that will try to dominate the possession and expose the Eagles defensive front. While the Trojans will not be taking home any big trophies after a sixth place finish in the Pac-10, they can get a good jump start on next year with a win in the Emerald Bowl. USC wins this one by 24.
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Thank Goodness It's Championship Week
Although every week is important in the college football season, the sheer fact of the matter is that late October and November have been very lackluster. At least until last week and the subsequent fallout. Rivalry week brought some big upsets and some near season-changers for the six undefeated teams still in the running for the BCS Championship. Rivalry week saved college football and caused a very strange occurrence you may never see again. There are still six undefeated teams as there have been every week in November since Iowa lost, but now every other team in the remaining 114 FBS institutions has sustained two or more losses. There are absolutely zero one-loss teams going into the final week of the season thanks to the middle of the polls being death row throughout November. Teams such as Oregon and Ohio State have risen back into the top 10 despite sitting two losses behind the teams right in front of them. This season would be a true test of any playoff system with 8 teams, let alone a BCS Championship system for two. Let the controversy continue.
The biggest news from rivalry week is certainly the coaching changes. One huge surprise, one no surprise. In the not surprising file, Charlie Weis has officially ended a rocky five year tenure at Notre Dame following a three game losing streak and a 6-6 record. The Fighting Irish may not even choose to play in a bowl game, and the program better hire correctly this time as 18 million dollars is the cost of making mistakes and their credibility is long gone. Whether the replacement is a big name like Brian Billick, an up-and-comer like Brian Kelly, or a nobody...this is one of the most important decisions in the landscape of college football. In the total surprise file, Florida State forced out Bobby Bowden after his own 6-6 finish. Florida State should have handed him the keys to the castle permanently after 14 straight top 10 finishes from 1988 to 2001, the Seminoles have fallen on slightly harder times now. Still, Joe Paterno had the same problems at Penn State and that school's loyalty has been rewarded since 2005. Bowden will likely never be passed on the all times wins list or at least not for a very long time, and the second-most winning coach in college football history needs to be honored for his success at a program that was nothing before he arrived. Good luck to both these gentlemen in their future endeavors.
Coaching firings was not the only bad news from this past week, as Pete Carroll and Rick Neuheisel took sportsmanship to a whole new level. Late in the evening over on the left coast, USC was wrapping up another conquering in the Rose Bowl of the Bruins by kneeling on the ball with a two touchdown lead and less than a minute to go. Still, UCLA had all three timeouts left and Neuheisel called one of them following the kneel down. So Carroll called a long bomb and USC delivered for another touchdown. Apparently Carroll forgot how it felt to be bashed rudely by Stanford's Jim Harbaugh a couple weeks ago, as the Bruins and Trojans then nearly came to blows in a midfield brawl. I'm all for a good hatred in a rivalry, but seriously guys? Coaches need to be role models and the actions of both coaches failed the test miserably Saturday night. Perhaps there's a valuable lesson both can teach their kids down the road, but for right now, each coach needs to take a second look at the sportsmanship manual in the offseason before they meet on the field again.
Before jumping into the wealth of de facto and real championship games this week, it is time for one final look at the BCS Bowl Projections. Ohio State has won the Big Ten and will be slotted against the winner of Oregon and Oregon State this week in the Rose Bowl. The winner of the SEC Championship and Texas will be in Pasadena for the championship game if Texas wins the Big XII against Nebraska. The ACC Champion will be slotted into the Orange Bowl, so the winner of Clemson and Georgia Tech goes there. What's left is the Big East champ, which will be the winner of Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, and four at large teams. The SEC runner-up will lock one up, TCU will earn the automatic berth, and the other two should be Boise State and either Iowa or Penn State. If Cincinnati loses to Pittsburgh, Iowa or Penn State will still be picked over a one-loss Bearcat team. If Nebraska upsets Texas, that likely knocks out Boise State because the Fiesta is the most likely falling spot for Boise as an at large. That's how it shakes out as the guesswork is at an all time high with one week to go.
2010 BCS Bowl Projections, 1 Week To Go
BCS Championship - Florida vs. Texas
Orange - Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Fiesta - Iowa vs. Boise State
Sugar - Alabama vs. Pittsburgh
Rose - Ohio State vs. Oregon
This week we have five games of the week, as all five BCS conferences outside the Big Ten are determining a BCS berth in a winner take all game. The first game of the week almost loses out to the C-USA and MAC Championships after last week, but the ACC Championship pits Georgia Tech versus Clemson. Each team lost to their SEC rival by giving up a metric ton of yards on the ground last week, but this is more troubling for Clemson as the Yellowjackets feature an option running attack that is hard to stop. QB Josh Nesbitt will be the primary focus of the Clemson defense, but look for RB Jonathan Dwyer to have another big day against the Tigers as he did in a 30-27 win back in September between these two teams. Clemson freshman QB Kyle Parker has a bright future ahead of him, but expect the Ramblin Wreck defense to make Parker the difference in this game. C.J. Spiller could have a big Heisman-tpye performance, but this looks like a matchup where Georgia tech will load up against the run and stop the mediocre Tiger offense. Yellowjackets to the BCS with a 10 point win.
The second game of the week is a Civil War, this year taking place in primetime on Thursday night as Oregon State visits Oregon. Two great offenses will meet with most of their weapons intact from last year's Ducks blowout, but OSU learned a lot that night last November. Most importantly, the Beavers learned that stopping Oregon comes with stopping QB Jeremiah Masoli. This is easier said than done though, as Masoli is just as likely to burn you with his running as his passing. Also look for RB's LaMichael James and LaGarrette Blount to keep the clock running and try to keep the Beaver offense off the field. One big difference form last year's game is that Oregon State comes in with all weapons this time with RB Jacquizz Rodgers and WR James Rodgers racking up huge numbers again. In a battle of great offenses, the maxim is that the better defense will prevail. This year should be no different, and the better defense belongs to the Ducks. With the homefield advantage Autzen Stadium provides, this will be too much for Oregon State to overcome and the Ducks win by 13.
The third game of the week is one Boise State fans will be tuned into as Texas takes on Nebraska for the third time in the history of the Big XII Championship. Texas is a huge favorite in this one but that has never mattered when these two teams meet on the field. Since a shocking second loss in a row to Iowa State, the Cornhuskers have locked down teams on defense and helped their offense to five straight wins. The Longhorn defense was exposed by the Aggies last weekend, so expect QB Zac Lee to continue the trend by targeting his favorite receiver Niles Paul early and often. Although Nebraska should put up some points against the Longhorns, the determining factor in this game is the matchup of the Blackshirts defense against the vaunted Longhorn offense. Colt McCoy will be looking to put one more gem up on the table for Heisman voters. McCoy has largely had to handle the load himself, and look for the Nebraska defense to bring some pressure and try to hold strong in the secondary. Although the Cornhuskers actually match up well in the defensive backfield against the Longhorns, there's too much on the line for Texas to let this one go. A lot closer than expected, but McCoy puts the game away on a fourth quarter drive for a 7 point win.
The fourth game of the week is the de facto Big East championship as Cincinnati visit Pittsburgh. Like the Bengals on the pro side, the Bearcats are hoping to dominate Heinz Field and take home a great season. Cincinnati has a nearly unstoppable offense as both quarterbacks Tony Pike and Zach Collaros will likely see play. Pike is the more dangerous passer, especially with WR Mardy Gilyard running past defenders. Pittsburgh has a solid defense under Dave Wannstedt, but they have seen nothing quite like the challenge coming this weekend. Pittsburgh QB Bill Stull actually has better statistics than Tony Pike, but Stull has played a full season while Pike has missed a third of the season. Take nothing away from the Backyard Brawl, as Pittsburgh will be ready to get rolling against the questionable Bearcat defense. RB Dion Lewis will be the cornerstone of the Panthers attack, as keeping Pike and company off the field is the best path to victory. Cincinnati looks like a sure bet to outscore the Panthers, but I suspect this is the bump in the road that stops the great Brian Kelly story. Cincinnati must hope this is not the end of the Kelly era when Notre Dame comes calling, but Cincinnati shockingly misses the BCS with a 3 point upset loss.
The fifth game of the week is only the second regular season battle of #1 versus #2 in recent memory, and hopefully Florida and Alabama lives up to last year's version or the previous 1 vs 2 in 2006 as Ohio State outscored Michigan. This game simply has it all: Heisman frontrunners, undefeated teams, great coaches, and the highest stakes possible. This will be the final stand of college football's greatest player Tim Tebow, but he may just be outshined by Alabama RB Mark Ingram, who is looking to rebound from a miserable Iron Bowl. Each team has a dominating defense, so it is hard to imagine more points than last year's 28-24 finish. Alabama QB Greg McElroy has been making Crimson tide faithful forget about breaking in new quarterbacks, but the Gators will still look to feast on the occassional McElroy mistake. While it would be refreshing to see Nick Saban fight for Alabama's first national title in 20 years, Tim Tebow and Urban Meyer have been there and done that, over and over in the past four years. Two national title rings do not come easily, but the Gators will have the rare chance at a third ring after their defense carries them to a 4 point victory just like last year.
2009 GOTW Record: 25-14 (64.1%)
Last Week: 3-0
Fitz Top 10 - Week 13
1. Florida (12-0)
2. Texas (12-0)
3. TCU (12-0)
4. Alabama (12-0)
5. Cincinnati (11-0)
6. Boise State (12-0)
7. Ohio State (10-2)
8. Oregon (9-2)
9. Iowa (10-2)
10. Penn State (10-2)
Just Missed: BYU, Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Oregon State
Well it has been another great season, and I look forward to seeing you all back for bowl season as I will not be covering the sole game next week when Navy and Army meet. There's a lot to look forward to this weekend though, so enjoy everything from the Civil War on thursday night to the reveal of the BCS schedule on Sunday night. If Texas loses to Nebraska, it will be very interesting to see which of the three remaining contenders plays the SEC Champion...will it be an SEC runner-up in an unprecedented rematch, TCU who did all they could as a non-BCS conference school, or Cincinnati as the only remaining undefeated BCS conference school (assuming they win). This would be a debate worth more than just one day, but that's all we will have on Sunday to discuss if the perfect storm happens. Even if Texas wins, the national title match up will be one of the best in recent memory. It's almost a win-win for the BCS in a year where that does not seem possible. We'll see you come bowl season, and it's been a true pleasure seeing everyone again this season. Have a great week!
The biggest news from rivalry week is certainly the coaching changes. One huge surprise, one no surprise. In the not surprising file, Charlie Weis has officially ended a rocky five year tenure at Notre Dame following a three game losing streak and a 6-6 record. The Fighting Irish may not even choose to play in a bowl game, and the program better hire correctly this time as 18 million dollars is the cost of making mistakes and their credibility is long gone. Whether the replacement is a big name like Brian Billick, an up-and-comer like Brian Kelly, or a nobody...this is one of the most important decisions in the landscape of college football. In the total surprise file, Florida State forced out Bobby Bowden after his own 6-6 finish. Florida State should have handed him the keys to the castle permanently after 14 straight top 10 finishes from 1988 to 2001, the Seminoles have fallen on slightly harder times now. Still, Joe Paterno had the same problems at Penn State and that school's loyalty has been rewarded since 2005. Bowden will likely never be passed on the all times wins list or at least not for a very long time, and the second-most winning coach in college football history needs to be honored for his success at a program that was nothing before he arrived. Good luck to both these gentlemen in their future endeavors.
Coaching firings was not the only bad news from this past week, as Pete Carroll and Rick Neuheisel took sportsmanship to a whole new level. Late in the evening over on the left coast, USC was wrapping up another conquering in the Rose Bowl of the Bruins by kneeling on the ball with a two touchdown lead and less than a minute to go. Still, UCLA had all three timeouts left and Neuheisel called one of them following the kneel down. So Carroll called a long bomb and USC delivered for another touchdown. Apparently Carroll forgot how it felt to be bashed rudely by Stanford's Jim Harbaugh a couple weeks ago, as the Bruins and Trojans then nearly came to blows in a midfield brawl. I'm all for a good hatred in a rivalry, but seriously guys? Coaches need to be role models and the actions of both coaches failed the test miserably Saturday night. Perhaps there's a valuable lesson both can teach their kids down the road, but for right now, each coach needs to take a second look at the sportsmanship manual in the offseason before they meet on the field again.
Before jumping into the wealth of de facto and real championship games this week, it is time for one final look at the BCS Bowl Projections. Ohio State has won the Big Ten and will be slotted against the winner of Oregon and Oregon State this week in the Rose Bowl. The winner of the SEC Championship and Texas will be in Pasadena for the championship game if Texas wins the Big XII against Nebraska. The ACC Champion will be slotted into the Orange Bowl, so the winner of Clemson and Georgia Tech goes there. What's left is the Big East champ, which will be the winner of Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, and four at large teams. The SEC runner-up will lock one up, TCU will earn the automatic berth, and the other two should be Boise State and either Iowa or Penn State. If Cincinnati loses to Pittsburgh, Iowa or Penn State will still be picked over a one-loss Bearcat team. If Nebraska upsets Texas, that likely knocks out Boise State because the Fiesta is the most likely falling spot for Boise as an at large. That's how it shakes out as the guesswork is at an all time high with one week to go.
2010 BCS Bowl Projections, 1 Week To Go
BCS Championship - Florida vs. Texas
Orange - Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Fiesta - Iowa vs. Boise State
Sugar - Alabama vs. Pittsburgh
Rose - Ohio State vs. Oregon
This week we have five games of the week, as all five BCS conferences outside the Big Ten are determining a BCS berth in a winner take all game. The first game of the week almost loses out to the C-USA and MAC Championships after last week, but the ACC Championship pits Georgia Tech versus Clemson. Each team lost to their SEC rival by giving up a metric ton of yards on the ground last week, but this is more troubling for Clemson as the Yellowjackets feature an option running attack that is hard to stop. QB Josh Nesbitt will be the primary focus of the Clemson defense, but look for RB Jonathan Dwyer to have another big day against the Tigers as he did in a 30-27 win back in September between these two teams. Clemson freshman QB Kyle Parker has a bright future ahead of him, but expect the Ramblin Wreck defense to make Parker the difference in this game. C.J. Spiller could have a big Heisman-tpye performance, but this looks like a matchup where Georgia tech will load up against the run and stop the mediocre Tiger offense. Yellowjackets to the BCS with a 10 point win.
The second game of the week is a Civil War, this year taking place in primetime on Thursday night as Oregon State visits Oregon. Two great offenses will meet with most of their weapons intact from last year's Ducks blowout, but OSU learned a lot that night last November. Most importantly, the Beavers learned that stopping Oregon comes with stopping QB Jeremiah Masoli. This is easier said than done though, as Masoli is just as likely to burn you with his running as his passing. Also look for RB's LaMichael James and LaGarrette Blount to keep the clock running and try to keep the Beaver offense off the field. One big difference form last year's game is that Oregon State comes in with all weapons this time with RB Jacquizz Rodgers and WR James Rodgers racking up huge numbers again. In a battle of great offenses, the maxim is that the better defense will prevail. This year should be no different, and the better defense belongs to the Ducks. With the homefield advantage Autzen Stadium provides, this will be too much for Oregon State to overcome and the Ducks win by 13.
The third game of the week is one Boise State fans will be tuned into as Texas takes on Nebraska for the third time in the history of the Big XII Championship. Texas is a huge favorite in this one but that has never mattered when these two teams meet on the field. Since a shocking second loss in a row to Iowa State, the Cornhuskers have locked down teams on defense and helped their offense to five straight wins. The Longhorn defense was exposed by the Aggies last weekend, so expect QB Zac Lee to continue the trend by targeting his favorite receiver Niles Paul early and often. Although Nebraska should put up some points against the Longhorns, the determining factor in this game is the matchup of the Blackshirts defense against the vaunted Longhorn offense. Colt McCoy will be looking to put one more gem up on the table for Heisman voters. McCoy has largely had to handle the load himself, and look for the Nebraska defense to bring some pressure and try to hold strong in the secondary. Although the Cornhuskers actually match up well in the defensive backfield against the Longhorns, there's too much on the line for Texas to let this one go. A lot closer than expected, but McCoy puts the game away on a fourth quarter drive for a 7 point win.
The fourth game of the week is the de facto Big East championship as Cincinnati visit Pittsburgh. Like the Bengals on the pro side, the Bearcats are hoping to dominate Heinz Field and take home a great season. Cincinnati has a nearly unstoppable offense as both quarterbacks Tony Pike and Zach Collaros will likely see play. Pike is the more dangerous passer, especially with WR Mardy Gilyard running past defenders. Pittsburgh has a solid defense under Dave Wannstedt, but they have seen nothing quite like the challenge coming this weekend. Pittsburgh QB Bill Stull actually has better statistics than Tony Pike, but Stull has played a full season while Pike has missed a third of the season. Take nothing away from the Backyard Brawl, as Pittsburgh will be ready to get rolling against the questionable Bearcat defense. RB Dion Lewis will be the cornerstone of the Panthers attack, as keeping Pike and company off the field is the best path to victory. Cincinnati looks like a sure bet to outscore the Panthers, but I suspect this is the bump in the road that stops the great Brian Kelly story. Cincinnati must hope this is not the end of the Kelly era when Notre Dame comes calling, but Cincinnati shockingly misses the BCS with a 3 point upset loss.
The fifth game of the week is only the second regular season battle of #1 versus #2 in recent memory, and hopefully Florida and Alabama lives up to last year's version or the previous 1 vs 2 in 2006 as Ohio State outscored Michigan. This game simply has it all: Heisman frontrunners, undefeated teams, great coaches, and the highest stakes possible. This will be the final stand of college football's greatest player Tim Tebow, but he may just be outshined by Alabama RB Mark Ingram, who is looking to rebound from a miserable Iron Bowl. Each team has a dominating defense, so it is hard to imagine more points than last year's 28-24 finish. Alabama QB Greg McElroy has been making Crimson tide faithful forget about breaking in new quarterbacks, but the Gators will still look to feast on the occassional McElroy mistake. While it would be refreshing to see Nick Saban fight for Alabama's first national title in 20 years, Tim Tebow and Urban Meyer have been there and done that, over and over in the past four years. Two national title rings do not come easily, but the Gators will have the rare chance at a third ring after their defense carries them to a 4 point victory just like last year.
2009 GOTW Record: 25-14 (64.1%)
Last Week: 3-0
Fitz Top 10 - Week 13
1. Florida (12-0)
2. Texas (12-0)
3. TCU (12-0)
4. Alabama (12-0)
5. Cincinnati (11-0)
6. Boise State (12-0)
7. Ohio State (10-2)
8. Oregon (9-2)
9. Iowa (10-2)
10. Penn State (10-2)
Just Missed: BYU, Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Oregon State
Well it has been another great season, and I look forward to seeing you all back for bowl season as I will not be covering the sole game next week when Navy and Army meet. There's a lot to look forward to this weekend though, so enjoy everything from the Civil War on thursday night to the reveal of the BCS schedule on Sunday night. If Texas loses to Nebraska, it will be very interesting to see which of the three remaining contenders plays the SEC Champion...will it be an SEC runner-up in an unprecedented rematch, TCU who did all they could as a non-BCS conference school, or Cincinnati as the only remaining undefeated BCS conference school (assuming they win). This would be a debate worth more than just one day, but that's all we will have on Sunday to discuss if the perfect storm happens. Even if Texas wins, the national title match up will be one of the best in recent memory. It's almost a win-win for the BCS in a year where that does not seem possible. We'll see you come bowl season, and it's been a true pleasure seeing everyone again this season. Have a great week!
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Many Things to be Thankful For This Thanksgiving
A long and winding regular season comes to a close for most teams in college football this weekend. This weekend also marks the Thanksgiving holidays, which is a time to feast and enjoy the company of family and friends. Whether on Thanksgiving Day itself or on the Friday and Saturday following, there's a lot of football this weekend to keep us all entertained. Before we pass the turkey and cranberries, here's a list of ten things I am most thankful for in the 2009 college football season.
10. BCS Turnover - Only four teams came into 2009 with two consecutive BCS Bowl appearances: Virginia Tech (2), Oklahoma (3), Ohio State (4), and USC (7). With Oklahoma and USC each falling off the bandwagon and Virginia Tech already sustaining three losses that put them out of the ACC Championship, it appears that the only streak above 2 after this season will be Ohio State. Turnover and parity is good for conference strength and for seeing something different every January. While dynasties are also nice, it is great so finally see some turnover in the BCS chase at least for this season.
9. Yes Virginia, even dynasties have rebuilding years - On that note, kudos to 2009 for teaching the world Pete Carroll and Bob Stoops must rebuild from time to time. Each was supposed to compete for a national title, but USC could not overcome starting a freshman quarterback and will likely not be in the BCS for the first time in 8 seasons. Oklahoma has a shocking 5 losses and has played most of the season without Heisman winner Sam Bradford. For two of the three-five teams who have dominated the decade, a return to prominence will allow these coaches to build their legends more than staying on top all the time.
8. Rivalry Week(s) - Now that college football's regular season ends over 4 weeks, not all rivalries come on the same week. However, this is the primary go week for rivalries and there should be a lot of close games and passionate football. From Michigan-Ohio State last Saturday to Army-Navy December 12, the rivalries will continue. This is the best part of the season thanks in large part to rivalries.
7. How Much is it worth to say goodbye? - The signs are on the wall around South Bend, and the vultures have been swooping in around Charlie Weis for two years now. A 6-5 record in a crucial year and now a slight controversy surrounding QB Jimmy clausen may be the last straw. However, it would cost Notre Dame $18 million to buy out the last five years of the contract thanks to a ridiculous extension added after Notre Dame lost competitively to USC four years ago. $18 million dollars could go a long way in scholarship money or other activities at the university, but perhaps this is better than what the university will lose in 5 more years of suffering football. It's a tough calculus and fun to watch.
6. The Rise of Iowa and Cincinnati - While Iowa sometimes competes for Big Ten titles and Cincinnati made the BCS last year, neither is a regular to the national title scene. And yet, three weeks ago, each was undefeated and staring up only at the Big Three powers Florida, Alabama, and Texas. Iowa had the biggest roller coaster week-to-week and had two of the most memorable games in a win at Michigan State and a loss at Ohio State. Meanwhile, Cincinnati keeps on chugging into late November despite losing their own starting quarterback. However, the Bearcats found they really have two quarterbacks who could start, but you have to wonder if UC will feel the pressure in the last two games to close the deal.
5. Top Teams Not Invincible - The aforementioned Big Three have been running the show most of the season, but not necessarily because of the results on the field. In a year where the number of undefeated teams shrank below ten very quickly, the Gators, Crimson Tide, and Longhorns have held the spotlight for so long. However, Florida has struggled against Arkansas and South Carolina, Alabama squeaked by Tennessee, and Texas had issue with a weak Oklahoma squad. Each team that could be playing for the national championship has a lot of flaws, and that makes for a very entertaining matchup no matter who makes it to Pasadena.
4. Redemption For LaGarrette Blount - This was covered in detail a couple weeks ago, but Blount is the comeback player of the year by my ballot even if he doesn't play many snaps even at the Rose Bowl or wherever Oregon ends up. The Ducks running back sold the Pac-10, Chip Kelly, his teammates, and the NCAA on his turning around from the incident of sucker punching a Boise State player in the first game of the season. Whether or not Blount seriously hurt his draft status, he will at least have a future in the pros which is better than it seemed a few months ago.
3. A Heisman Race Worth Watching - Yes Colt McCoy might win the Heisman based on not winning it the past two seasons, and Tim Tebow might win his second for being a gutty MVP of a national-championship calbier team. But in all reality, this Heisman race is full of nobody who was on the radar seriously at season's beginning. And the race changes week to week, making this the most interesting Heisman race in some time.
2. All Conferences having a Championship Game - Although only three of the BCS conferences have an official Championship Game, the other three BCS conferences have lucked into a backloaded schedule that formed de facto championship games where the winner gets the automatic BCS berth. The Big Ten had theirs two weeks ago as Ohio State knocked off Iowa, but we have five more to look forward to next week: ACC (Clemson vs. Georgia Tech), Big East (Cincinnati at Pittsburgh), Big XII (Texas vs. Nebraska), Pac-10 (Oregon State at Oregon), and SEC (Florida vs. Alabama). Considering this lucky circumstance, we will likely have five games of the week next week to celebrate.
1. BCS Chaos at the Doorstep - Six undefeated teams, only two of which play each other. Only three one-loss teams remain behind them, but the debate rages as to whether both non-BCS schools will get into the BCS picture and whether Cincinnati has a chance of busting the party. If this perfect storm cannot get two non-BCS schools in, nothing ever will and that is not good for the BCS credibility. Furthermore, leaving undefeated teams out of the national title picture from BCS conferences never makes the BCS look good, but the circumstance becomes more real every week. The BCS never has it easy, and this season there has been even more spicy debate growing than usual. So thanks to the BCS debate, as usual!
2010 BCS Bowl Projections, 2 Weeks To Go
BCS Championship - Florida vs. Texas
Orange - Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Fiesta - Iowa vs. Boise State
Sugar - Alabama vs. Pittsburgh
Rose - Ohio State vs. Oregon
The first game of the week is Utah at Brigham Young. Usually a battle for MWC supremacy, each of these teams has had the rug swept out from under them by the TCU Horned Frogs this season. Still, both the Cougars and the Utes come into this battle at 6-1 in conference play and lots of bragging rights on the line. The Utes won last year by forcing turnovers, but the script might be flipped this year with experienced QB Max Hall piloting the Cougars while rookie QB Terrence Cain leads the Utes. One cannot discount the better defense in a battle like this, and Utah's defense has become a very solid unit in the back seven. If they can contain receivers long enough to frustrate Max Hall, the Utes have a serious chance. Still, BYU will win this by 4.
The second game of the week is Nevada visiting the blue turf at Boise State with the MWC title on the line. This is literally the Broncos' last chance to impress voters before the end of the season, and while beating an undefeated TCU is likely off the table now, a second BCS at large berth is still there for the taking. The Wolfpack come in on a eight game winning streak, and they also bring the nation's best rushing game to Boise with 373 yards per game. The Broncos defense will be sorely tested by all three of the Wolfpack's 1000-yard rushers: RB Vai Taua, QB Colin Kaepernick, and RB Luke Lippincott. On the other side of the ball, Broncos QB Kellen Moore will be looking to get back on track after an off week in a rout. If Nevada can keep Moore and company off the field and stay two-dimensional on offense, Nevada could shock the world. However, Boise should pull through with so much on the line at home, BSU by 10.
The third and top game of the week is the Backyard Brawl, Pittsburgh at West Virginia. Now while this game has no bearing on the Big East championship, which will be decided next weekend when Cincinnati visits the Panthers, WVU still has a chance to better their conference standing by knocking down Pitt. Plus there's a little extra spice on the line as the Mountaineers want to knock Pittsburgh out of the national title picture (albeit a longshot) like Pitt did in Morgantown by shocking the Mountaineers 13-9. Look for the Panthers to establish the run early and often with freshman RB Dion Lewis to try and keep the game at the pace they desire. Meanwhile, West Virginia will look to their two stars to keep Pittsburgh's offense off the field in QB Jarrett Brown and RB Noel Devine. This should be a fast-paced game but do not expect much scoring as both defenses will be up to the task of stopping their rival. In a close battle, you have to like the home field advantage and the intangibles favoring WVU. Mountaineers by 2.
2009 GOTW Record: 22-14
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 - Week 12
1. Texas
2. Florida
3. Alabama
4. TCU
5. Cincinnati
6. Boise State
7. Georgia Tech
8. Pittsburgh
9. Ohio State
10. Oregon
Just Missed: Oklahoma State, Iowa, Penn State, Clemson, BYU
Don't forget to pass the gravy! As I mentioned earlier, this week is full of rivalries but next week will bring the five remaining BCS conference championship games. Lots to look forward to in the last two weeks of the season and before you know it, the bowls will be here! Have a fantastic holiday weekend.
10. BCS Turnover - Only four teams came into 2009 with two consecutive BCS Bowl appearances: Virginia Tech (2), Oklahoma (3), Ohio State (4), and USC (7). With Oklahoma and USC each falling off the bandwagon and Virginia Tech already sustaining three losses that put them out of the ACC Championship, it appears that the only streak above 2 after this season will be Ohio State. Turnover and parity is good for conference strength and for seeing something different every January. While dynasties are also nice, it is great so finally see some turnover in the BCS chase at least for this season.
9. Yes Virginia, even dynasties have rebuilding years - On that note, kudos to 2009 for teaching the world Pete Carroll and Bob Stoops must rebuild from time to time. Each was supposed to compete for a national title, but USC could not overcome starting a freshman quarterback and will likely not be in the BCS for the first time in 8 seasons. Oklahoma has a shocking 5 losses and has played most of the season without Heisman winner Sam Bradford. For two of the three-five teams who have dominated the decade, a return to prominence will allow these coaches to build their legends more than staying on top all the time.
8. Rivalry Week(s) - Now that college football's regular season ends over 4 weeks, not all rivalries come on the same week. However, this is the primary go week for rivalries and there should be a lot of close games and passionate football. From Michigan-Ohio State last Saturday to Army-Navy December 12, the rivalries will continue. This is the best part of the season thanks in large part to rivalries.
7. How Much is it worth to say goodbye? - The signs are on the wall around South Bend, and the vultures have been swooping in around Charlie Weis for two years now. A 6-5 record in a crucial year and now a slight controversy surrounding QB Jimmy clausen may be the last straw. However, it would cost Notre Dame $18 million to buy out the last five years of the contract thanks to a ridiculous extension added after Notre Dame lost competitively to USC four years ago. $18 million dollars could go a long way in scholarship money or other activities at the university, but perhaps this is better than what the university will lose in 5 more years of suffering football. It's a tough calculus and fun to watch.
6. The Rise of Iowa and Cincinnati - While Iowa sometimes competes for Big Ten titles and Cincinnati made the BCS last year, neither is a regular to the national title scene. And yet, three weeks ago, each was undefeated and staring up only at the Big Three powers Florida, Alabama, and Texas. Iowa had the biggest roller coaster week-to-week and had two of the most memorable games in a win at Michigan State and a loss at Ohio State. Meanwhile, Cincinnati keeps on chugging into late November despite losing their own starting quarterback. However, the Bearcats found they really have two quarterbacks who could start, but you have to wonder if UC will feel the pressure in the last two games to close the deal.
5. Top Teams Not Invincible - The aforementioned Big Three have been running the show most of the season, but not necessarily because of the results on the field. In a year where the number of undefeated teams shrank below ten very quickly, the Gators, Crimson Tide, and Longhorns have held the spotlight for so long. However, Florida has struggled against Arkansas and South Carolina, Alabama squeaked by Tennessee, and Texas had issue with a weak Oklahoma squad. Each team that could be playing for the national championship has a lot of flaws, and that makes for a very entertaining matchup no matter who makes it to Pasadena.
4. Redemption For LaGarrette Blount - This was covered in detail a couple weeks ago, but Blount is the comeback player of the year by my ballot even if he doesn't play many snaps even at the Rose Bowl or wherever Oregon ends up. The Ducks running back sold the Pac-10, Chip Kelly, his teammates, and the NCAA on his turning around from the incident of sucker punching a Boise State player in the first game of the season. Whether or not Blount seriously hurt his draft status, he will at least have a future in the pros which is better than it seemed a few months ago.
3. A Heisman Race Worth Watching - Yes Colt McCoy might win the Heisman based on not winning it the past two seasons, and Tim Tebow might win his second for being a gutty MVP of a national-championship calbier team. But in all reality, this Heisman race is full of nobody who was on the radar seriously at season's beginning. And the race changes week to week, making this the most interesting Heisman race in some time.
2. All Conferences having a Championship Game - Although only three of the BCS conferences have an official Championship Game, the other three BCS conferences have lucked into a backloaded schedule that formed de facto championship games where the winner gets the automatic BCS berth. The Big Ten had theirs two weeks ago as Ohio State knocked off Iowa, but we have five more to look forward to next week: ACC (Clemson vs. Georgia Tech), Big East (Cincinnati at Pittsburgh), Big XII (Texas vs. Nebraska), Pac-10 (Oregon State at Oregon), and SEC (Florida vs. Alabama). Considering this lucky circumstance, we will likely have five games of the week next week to celebrate.
1. BCS Chaos at the Doorstep - Six undefeated teams, only two of which play each other. Only three one-loss teams remain behind them, but the debate rages as to whether both non-BCS schools will get into the BCS picture and whether Cincinnati has a chance of busting the party. If this perfect storm cannot get two non-BCS schools in, nothing ever will and that is not good for the BCS credibility. Furthermore, leaving undefeated teams out of the national title picture from BCS conferences never makes the BCS look good, but the circumstance becomes more real every week. The BCS never has it easy, and this season there has been even more spicy debate growing than usual. So thanks to the BCS debate, as usual!
2010 BCS Bowl Projections, 2 Weeks To Go
BCS Championship - Florida vs. Texas
Orange - Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Fiesta - Iowa vs. Boise State
Sugar - Alabama vs. Pittsburgh
Rose - Ohio State vs. Oregon
The first game of the week is Utah at Brigham Young. Usually a battle for MWC supremacy, each of these teams has had the rug swept out from under them by the TCU Horned Frogs this season. Still, both the Cougars and the Utes come into this battle at 6-1 in conference play and lots of bragging rights on the line. The Utes won last year by forcing turnovers, but the script might be flipped this year with experienced QB Max Hall piloting the Cougars while rookie QB Terrence Cain leads the Utes. One cannot discount the better defense in a battle like this, and Utah's defense has become a very solid unit in the back seven. If they can contain receivers long enough to frustrate Max Hall, the Utes have a serious chance. Still, BYU will win this by 4.
The second game of the week is Nevada visiting the blue turf at Boise State with the MWC title on the line. This is literally the Broncos' last chance to impress voters before the end of the season, and while beating an undefeated TCU is likely off the table now, a second BCS at large berth is still there for the taking. The Wolfpack come in on a eight game winning streak, and they also bring the nation's best rushing game to Boise with 373 yards per game. The Broncos defense will be sorely tested by all three of the Wolfpack's 1000-yard rushers: RB Vai Taua, QB Colin Kaepernick, and RB Luke Lippincott. On the other side of the ball, Broncos QB Kellen Moore will be looking to get back on track after an off week in a rout. If Nevada can keep Moore and company off the field and stay two-dimensional on offense, Nevada could shock the world. However, Boise should pull through with so much on the line at home, BSU by 10.
The third and top game of the week is the Backyard Brawl, Pittsburgh at West Virginia. Now while this game has no bearing on the Big East championship, which will be decided next weekend when Cincinnati visits the Panthers, WVU still has a chance to better their conference standing by knocking down Pitt. Plus there's a little extra spice on the line as the Mountaineers want to knock Pittsburgh out of the national title picture (albeit a longshot) like Pitt did in Morgantown by shocking the Mountaineers 13-9. Look for the Panthers to establish the run early and often with freshman RB Dion Lewis to try and keep the game at the pace they desire. Meanwhile, West Virginia will look to their two stars to keep Pittsburgh's offense off the field in QB Jarrett Brown and RB Noel Devine. This should be a fast-paced game but do not expect much scoring as both defenses will be up to the task of stopping their rival. In a close battle, you have to like the home field advantage and the intangibles favoring WVU. Mountaineers by 2.
2009 GOTW Record: 22-14
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 - Week 12
1. Texas
2. Florida
3. Alabama
4. TCU
5. Cincinnati
6. Boise State
7. Georgia Tech
8. Pittsburgh
9. Ohio State
10. Oregon
Just Missed: Oklahoma State, Iowa, Penn State, Clemson, BYU
Don't forget to pass the gravy! As I mentioned earlier, this week is full of rivalries but next week will bring the five remaining BCS conference championship games. Lots to look forward to in the last two weeks of the season and before you know it, the bowls will be here! Have a fantastic holiday weekend.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
A Tale of Two Cities, NCAA Football Style
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times...
Back in 2001, two all-time dyansties of college football went a new direction with head coaches. A decade later, these two programs would become the biggest dynasties of the decade. Ohio State had won 4 consecutive Big Ten titles and USC has won seven straight Pac-10 titles. The two programs clashed the past two seasons, with the Trojans sweeping the series. Yet on the second Saturday of November, it was the worst of times in Los Angeles as USC gave up the most points in the history of their program. Meanwhile in Columbus, Ohio State was redeeming a season seemingly lost in West Lafayette four weeks prior. One conference dynasty continues, one ends in flames. And so it goes in the world of college football.
It was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness...
After another loss to USC on the big stage, some of the Buckeye fan base began to buy into the "Jim Tressel's system does not work" belief. This feeling grew after OSU's first truly bad loss in over five years to Purdue. Yet Tressel held the course and the offensive play calling duties, banking on his special teams and defense to carry the Buckeyes back into the conference title talk. While the wins are not always pretty against the better teams such as Iowa, four weeks of wins later proved the wisdom of Tresselball in the Big Ten. In a conference dominated by running games and defense, a conservative Woody Hayes-type strategy works very well. But even Tressel needed a bit of help, a bit of foolishness. Kirk Ferentz provided this foolishness in not going for the win on the road on their last possession, despite having timeouts, good field position, and all the momentum in the Horseshoe. Ferentz played for overtime, which was foolish and was quickly punished by who else, but the Buckeye special teams and defense.
It was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity...
Meanwhile in Los Angeles, Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh finished a three-year revival project at Stanford by knocking off USC in the Coliseum for the second time in three years. Harbaugh came into the 2007 season with a belief that he could have Stanford playing with USC very shortly. Not only did he upset USC in his first attempt as a 41 point underdog, he now has led his team to more points scored against USC than any other team in history. Harbaugh had his belief in the program proven and could end up where nobody could have guessed...the Rose Bowl in 2010. Meanwhile, the seemingly always smug and smiling Pete Carroll had a look of incredulity on his face as the kingdom of Troy fell around him. Furthermore, Harbaugh pulled no punches by going for 2 late in the game up by 27. Carroll has finally been conquered, and you can just tell he cannot believe it. After seven years of dominance and reloading, the rebuilding has begun.
It was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness...
Terrelle Pryor surprisingly took away the starting quarterback reins at Ohio State his freshman season mostly because Todd Boeckman was exposed by a weak offensive line and a dominant USC defense in 2008. Pryor has shown moments of greatness, as his elusiveness and speed make him a hybrid between Ben Roethlisburger and Vince Young. However, as much of a bright spot as Pryor can be, there is a dark side. Pryor has been very questionable in his second season as far as throwing fundamentals. Hence, Jim Tressel has put such a tight leash on Pryor that he was merely a game manager against Iowa without any downfield attempts. So will Pryor ever live up to his bright shining potential, or will the leash get tighter and tighter until Pryor's career as a quarterback ends at the college level? The only certain thing is that the rest of Pryor's days will be filled with the brightness of being a Heisman contender or the darkness of being a wasted talent.
It was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair...
Southern Cal football was one of four teams coming into this season which were considered sure-fire BCS Championship contenders. While Texas and Florida have lived up to expectations and Oklahoma has been understandably devastated by injuries, USC has no such excuse to lean on. With seven straight conference titles and BCS bowl dominance, everyone in Los Angeles hoped for yet another title shot in their own backyard. Instead, the Trojans will not be spending January anywhere near Pasadena for either the BCS Championship or the Rose Bowl. So although a lot of experience has been gained this season, there's no doubt that this is becoming a winter of despair in Los Angeles. USC is beatable in November and will truly need to have a bounce back year for the first time in a decade. It's going to a be a long few months of recruiting and rebuilding ahead.
We had everything before us, we had nothing before us...
The college football season is a fleeting beast, over before you know what hit you. The Buckeyes turn to Michigan week with stranger circumstances than any other time in the Jim Tressel era. Ohio State is playing for nothing as the Rose Bowl and the Big Ten title already sits before them. However, seasons are won and lost in Columbus based on Michigan week, something Tressel understands with a 7-1 record in the rivalry. With Michigan and a Rose Bowl ahead, one might be just as inclined to say the Buckeyes have everything before them as they are to say the Buckeyes have nothing before them with most of their season goals accomplished.
We were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way...
So in summary, all good things must come to an end. Whether the dynasties are destined for a better place or a worse place, eventually the other members of the Pac-10 and the Big Ten must shine. Even though Tressel and Carroll will likely be long gone, the respective fanbases can be comfortedin knowing that each program will rise to the top again and again. But for right now, one dynasty continues while the other experiences a true rebuilding year. Buckeyes feel like heaven while Trojans feel like hell.
The BCS Bowl Projections have not changed much. My initial guess at Boise State and TCU both getting BCS berths looks stronger and stronger with all the other big name contenders dropping from contention. Oregon is slotted right back where they were two weeks ago with USC's loss, while Miami's loss opens a spot for the Big Ten runner up. An interesting debate should happen between Wisconsin, Iowa, and Penn State, but Iowa beat both the others on the road this season. With a dominating win over a respectable Minnesota team and a great performance against OSU, the Hawkeyes should be the pick but the Nittany Lions are in the mix again.
2010 BCS Bowl Projections, 3 Weeks To Go
BCS Championship - Florida vs. Texas
Orange - Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Fiesta - Iowa vs. Boise State
Sugar - Alabama vs. Pittsburgh
Rose - Ohio State vs. Oregon
The first game of the week is "The Big Game" as Cal travels to Stanford. Just like the rivalry with USC, Jim Harbaugh has revived the life in this rivalry game as well, splitting his first two meetings with the Golden Bears. Both teams come in playing good football as of late, but Stanford is a bit hotter scoring over 100 points the last two weeks against teams Cal mustered a grand total of 6 points against (Oregon and USC). The Golden Bears offense is now leaning heavily on junior QB Kevin Riley with the continued missed time by RB Javhid Best. However, Cal has maintained a solid running game with RB Shane Vereen, and Stanford has struggled a bit against solid rushing attacks. On the other side of the ball, the Cal defense is tasked with stopping one of the most balanced offenses in the country. The Cardinal has thrived with freshman QB Andrew Luck, who has only thrown three interceptions all season. Look for Jeff Tedford to send a lot of different defensive looks and blitzes at the young Cardinal quarterback, hoping to disrupt the offensive juggernaut. Stanford is just too hot right now to be derailed. Cardinal by 10.
The second game of the week is Air Force visiting BYU. Although the reigning champion Utah and the new kids on the block TCU stole all the spotlight last week, this battle of MWC teams should not be overlooked. Although QB Max Hall cannot lead BYU past TCU for a conference title, he can lock up a school record for wins and finish his career strong with wins against Air Force and Utah. Hall has been helped tremendously by RB Harvey Unga, who has kept defenses honest this season. The Falcons run the option, but Air Force wins games with defense and not turning the ball over. BYU has dominated the Falcon defense the past few years, but no team (including Utah and TCU) has surpassed 20 points in regulation against Air Force. If the Falcons can attack the Cougar defense effectively and keep Hall off the field, Air Force could very well break their five-game skid against BYU. This game turns out to be a lot closer than expected, but BYU prevails with a 3 point win.
The top game of the week is Oregon at Arizona. Despite Arizona's loss last weekend, these two teams control their own destiny in the Rose Bowl race. Each team ranks in the top 30 nationally on offense, so expect this game to be another wild shootout in the west. QB Nick Foles leads the Wildcat offense, which throws for nearly 300 yards per contest. However, Arizona has sturggled to score points lately, which will be a problem considering how the ducks put up points. Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli will be tough to contain for the Wildcat linebackers, but freshman RB LaMichael James is the primary threat in the Ducks' prolific rushing attack. Arizona is undefeated at home and is due for a high quality effort, but Oregon can see the finish line again and would like to simplify the race significantly in the Pac-10. Ducks win by 13.
2009 GOTW Record: 20-13
Last Week: 3-0
Fitz Top 10 - Week 11
1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Florida
4. TCU
5. Cincinnati
6. Boise State
7. Georgia Tech
8. Pittsburgh
9. Ohio State
10. Oregon
Just Missed: LSU, Oklahoma State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State
Really this is a fairly weak rivalry week, as many of the traditional rivalries do not carry the usual weight this year. In any event, there are three weeks left in the regular season (not counting Army-Navy), and there's not much time left for surprises in the Top 10 and the BCS bowl hunt. Nevertheless, the storylines will captivate our weekends for the rest of November. Have a good weekend!
Back in 2001, two all-time dyansties of college football went a new direction with head coaches. A decade later, these two programs would become the biggest dynasties of the decade. Ohio State had won 4 consecutive Big Ten titles and USC has won seven straight Pac-10 titles. The two programs clashed the past two seasons, with the Trojans sweeping the series. Yet on the second Saturday of November, it was the worst of times in Los Angeles as USC gave up the most points in the history of their program. Meanwhile in Columbus, Ohio State was redeeming a season seemingly lost in West Lafayette four weeks prior. One conference dynasty continues, one ends in flames. And so it goes in the world of college football.
It was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness...
After another loss to USC on the big stage, some of the Buckeye fan base began to buy into the "Jim Tressel's system does not work" belief. This feeling grew after OSU's first truly bad loss in over five years to Purdue. Yet Tressel held the course and the offensive play calling duties, banking on his special teams and defense to carry the Buckeyes back into the conference title talk. While the wins are not always pretty against the better teams such as Iowa, four weeks of wins later proved the wisdom of Tresselball in the Big Ten. In a conference dominated by running games and defense, a conservative Woody Hayes-type strategy works very well. But even Tressel needed a bit of help, a bit of foolishness. Kirk Ferentz provided this foolishness in not going for the win on the road on their last possession, despite having timeouts, good field position, and all the momentum in the Horseshoe. Ferentz played for overtime, which was foolish and was quickly punished by who else, but the Buckeye special teams and defense.
It was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity...
Meanwhile in Los Angeles, Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh finished a three-year revival project at Stanford by knocking off USC in the Coliseum for the second time in three years. Harbaugh came into the 2007 season with a belief that he could have Stanford playing with USC very shortly. Not only did he upset USC in his first attempt as a 41 point underdog, he now has led his team to more points scored against USC than any other team in history. Harbaugh had his belief in the program proven and could end up where nobody could have guessed...the Rose Bowl in 2010. Meanwhile, the seemingly always smug and smiling Pete Carroll had a look of incredulity on his face as the kingdom of Troy fell around him. Furthermore, Harbaugh pulled no punches by going for 2 late in the game up by 27. Carroll has finally been conquered, and you can just tell he cannot believe it. After seven years of dominance and reloading, the rebuilding has begun.
It was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness...
Terrelle Pryor surprisingly took away the starting quarterback reins at Ohio State his freshman season mostly because Todd Boeckman was exposed by a weak offensive line and a dominant USC defense in 2008. Pryor has shown moments of greatness, as his elusiveness and speed make him a hybrid between Ben Roethlisburger and Vince Young. However, as much of a bright spot as Pryor can be, there is a dark side. Pryor has been very questionable in his second season as far as throwing fundamentals. Hence, Jim Tressel has put such a tight leash on Pryor that he was merely a game manager against Iowa without any downfield attempts. So will Pryor ever live up to his bright shining potential, or will the leash get tighter and tighter until Pryor's career as a quarterback ends at the college level? The only certain thing is that the rest of Pryor's days will be filled with the brightness of being a Heisman contender or the darkness of being a wasted talent.
It was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair...
Southern Cal football was one of four teams coming into this season which were considered sure-fire BCS Championship contenders. While Texas and Florida have lived up to expectations and Oklahoma has been understandably devastated by injuries, USC has no such excuse to lean on. With seven straight conference titles and BCS bowl dominance, everyone in Los Angeles hoped for yet another title shot in their own backyard. Instead, the Trojans will not be spending January anywhere near Pasadena for either the BCS Championship or the Rose Bowl. So although a lot of experience has been gained this season, there's no doubt that this is becoming a winter of despair in Los Angeles. USC is beatable in November and will truly need to have a bounce back year for the first time in a decade. It's going to a be a long few months of recruiting and rebuilding ahead.
We had everything before us, we had nothing before us...
The college football season is a fleeting beast, over before you know what hit you. The Buckeyes turn to Michigan week with stranger circumstances than any other time in the Jim Tressel era. Ohio State is playing for nothing as the Rose Bowl and the Big Ten title already sits before them. However, seasons are won and lost in Columbus based on Michigan week, something Tressel understands with a 7-1 record in the rivalry. With Michigan and a Rose Bowl ahead, one might be just as inclined to say the Buckeyes have everything before them as they are to say the Buckeyes have nothing before them with most of their season goals accomplished.
We were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way...
So in summary, all good things must come to an end. Whether the dynasties are destined for a better place or a worse place, eventually the other members of the Pac-10 and the Big Ten must shine. Even though Tressel and Carroll will likely be long gone, the respective fanbases can be comfortedin knowing that each program will rise to the top again and again. But for right now, one dynasty continues while the other experiences a true rebuilding year. Buckeyes feel like heaven while Trojans feel like hell.
The BCS Bowl Projections have not changed much. My initial guess at Boise State and TCU both getting BCS berths looks stronger and stronger with all the other big name contenders dropping from contention. Oregon is slotted right back where they were two weeks ago with USC's loss, while Miami's loss opens a spot for the Big Ten runner up. An interesting debate should happen between Wisconsin, Iowa, and Penn State, but Iowa beat both the others on the road this season. With a dominating win over a respectable Minnesota team and a great performance against OSU, the Hawkeyes should be the pick but the Nittany Lions are in the mix again.
2010 BCS Bowl Projections, 3 Weeks To Go
BCS Championship - Florida vs. Texas
Orange - Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Fiesta - Iowa vs. Boise State
Sugar - Alabama vs. Pittsburgh
Rose - Ohio State vs. Oregon
The first game of the week is "The Big Game" as Cal travels to Stanford. Just like the rivalry with USC, Jim Harbaugh has revived the life in this rivalry game as well, splitting his first two meetings with the Golden Bears. Both teams come in playing good football as of late, but Stanford is a bit hotter scoring over 100 points the last two weeks against teams Cal mustered a grand total of 6 points against (Oregon and USC). The Golden Bears offense is now leaning heavily on junior QB Kevin Riley with the continued missed time by RB Javhid Best. However, Cal has maintained a solid running game with RB Shane Vereen, and Stanford has struggled a bit against solid rushing attacks. On the other side of the ball, the Cal defense is tasked with stopping one of the most balanced offenses in the country. The Cardinal has thrived with freshman QB Andrew Luck, who has only thrown three interceptions all season. Look for Jeff Tedford to send a lot of different defensive looks and blitzes at the young Cardinal quarterback, hoping to disrupt the offensive juggernaut. Stanford is just too hot right now to be derailed. Cardinal by 10.
The second game of the week is Air Force visiting BYU. Although the reigning champion Utah and the new kids on the block TCU stole all the spotlight last week, this battle of MWC teams should not be overlooked. Although QB Max Hall cannot lead BYU past TCU for a conference title, he can lock up a school record for wins and finish his career strong with wins against Air Force and Utah. Hall has been helped tremendously by RB Harvey Unga, who has kept defenses honest this season. The Falcons run the option, but Air Force wins games with defense and not turning the ball over. BYU has dominated the Falcon defense the past few years, but no team (including Utah and TCU) has surpassed 20 points in regulation against Air Force. If the Falcons can attack the Cougar defense effectively and keep Hall off the field, Air Force could very well break their five-game skid against BYU. This game turns out to be a lot closer than expected, but BYU prevails with a 3 point win.
The top game of the week is Oregon at Arizona. Despite Arizona's loss last weekend, these two teams control their own destiny in the Rose Bowl race. Each team ranks in the top 30 nationally on offense, so expect this game to be another wild shootout in the west. QB Nick Foles leads the Wildcat offense, which throws for nearly 300 yards per contest. However, Arizona has sturggled to score points lately, which will be a problem considering how the ducks put up points. Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli will be tough to contain for the Wildcat linebackers, but freshman RB LaMichael James is the primary threat in the Ducks' prolific rushing attack. Arizona is undefeated at home and is due for a high quality effort, but Oregon can see the finish line again and would like to simplify the race significantly in the Pac-10. Ducks win by 13.
2009 GOTW Record: 20-13
Last Week: 3-0
Fitz Top 10 - Week 11
1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Florida
4. TCU
5. Cincinnati
6. Boise State
7. Georgia Tech
8. Pittsburgh
9. Ohio State
10. Oregon
Just Missed: LSU, Oklahoma State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State
Really this is a fairly weak rivalry week, as many of the traditional rivalries do not carry the usual weight this year. In any event, there are three weeks left in the regular season (not counting Army-Navy), and there's not much time left for surprises in the Top 10 and the BCS bowl hunt. Nevertheless, the storylines will captivate our weekends for the rest of November. Have a good weekend!
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Overcoming Adveristy, One Week at a Time
For the fellowship of the undefeated, the last three weeks of October were all about survive and advance. Every single week, each of the seven dealt with some adversity. Some weeks it was keeping motivation levels high for a lesser opponent, other weeks the adversity was all about bad starts or close games on the field. In the most unlikely of circumstances, every team survived the scares and the adversity, week after week. As the calendar turned to November, the kings of the drama every week finally left the undefeated seven, as Iowa lost to Northwestern. While we must bid farewell to the Hawkeyes in the BCS race, this dramatically simplifies the picture for the national title.
Before we get into the contenders, let's discuss why the Hawkeyes were the first to fall out. Iowa started the season by losing their superstar running back to the NFL draft a year early, then the problems compounded when starter Jewel Hampton suffered a season-ending injury in the fall practices. Already down to option number 3, the Hawkeyes suffered another loss as Adam Robinson went down two weeks ago and this left basically one true freshman Brandon Wegher and no other good options. To further exacerbate the problems, TE Tony Moeaki, OL Dace Richardson, SS Brett Greenwood, and WR Brett Greenwood all sustained injuries that knocked them out of games in October and some in November. So when the unquestioned leader QB Ricky Stanzi fell to injury in the second quarter on Saturday, the Iowa offense came to a screeching halt. Iowa barely sniffed Northwestern's end of the field and the day was lost. What this proves is that with limited talent (which is what Kirk Ferentz has to work with), there's only so much injury adversity you can overcome. The Hawkeyes are to be commended for walking a tightrope all season and playing shorthanded, but that will not comfort their fans as a dream season could very well come crashing to a halt in Columbus this Saturday. But more on that later.
In the national title race, non-BCS schools are non-factors, and even mighty TCU will be dragged down enough by the bad teams in the MWC too much in the computer ratings. With Iowa, Oregon, and LSU leaving the picture last weekend, there's only four teams with a shot to play for the national championship now. Alabama and Florida will duke it out in the SEC Championship in three weeks, while Texas plays out the string in the Big XII and Cincinnati has a monster final three games. The difference between teams like Cincinnati and teams like Iowa showed last weekend as Cincinnati continued to reap the benefits of having a great backup quarterback while Iowa could not overcome the same scenario. Cincinnati has the hardest schedule remaining of the contenders, but things are going just fine as Brian Kelly is able to bench a quarterback who was a legitimate Heisman candidate before his injury. There's no doubt an undefeated SEC Champion and an undefeated Texas will meet in Pasadena if each stays undefeated, but things get interesting if losses happen to the top 3 teams in the current BCS Standings. If Texas loses to one of the mediocre teams left on their schedule, there's no question an undefeated Cincinnati team coming off wins against West Virginia and Pittsburgh will leap over the Longhorns. But what about the Bearcats versus a one loss SEC Champion? While it sort of depends on when the SEC Champion loses (earlier being better of course), but I think Cincinnati would play Texas if they are the only two BCS conference champions who remain undefeated.
I hold this belief in Cincinnati for multiple reasons. The voters are coming around to Cincinnati and will only do that more and more if they keep winning in the tough November schedule. The fact that Tony Pike is being benched in favor of Zach Collaros proves that Cincinnati has enough offense to get in a shootout with any of the three teams above them. While the 45 points surrendered to UCONN last weekend is troubling when comparing defenses, the Bearcats have been solid the rest of the season. Although Alabama or Florida would be coming off a massive win, Cincinnati would presumably be coming off a win against a possible Top 5 opponent on the road in Pittsburgh. While the SEC has won the past three BCS titles, it would be very upsetting to see a BCS Conference team go undefeated and not make the championship, hence I suspect voters would overcompensate on behalf of the Bearcats against a one-loss SEC Champion. So Cincinnati only has to cheer for one more loss to be in the driver's seat for the BCS Championship. Unfortunately for Cincinnati, this does not seem likely to happen. That's why we play the games though!
So with the pecking order in the BCS established, now is a fantastic time to review all the conference races coming to a close in two or three weeks. In the ACC, it looks like Clemson will be able to finish off the two lower-tier ACC teams left on their schedule to meet Georgia Tech in December. One has to figure Georgia Tech wins that matchup. The Big XII South is all Texas now barring two incredible losses, but the North is completely up for grabs. Expect the winner of Kansas State and Nebraska to meet Texas, but the Longhorns should finish undefeated to atone for last year's diappointment. The Big East has somehow backloaded their schedule yet again, as undefeated Cincinnati and Pittsburgh each have to deal with the only one-loss team in the conference West Virginia before clashing on December 5. WVU will not sweep both of them, so the conference title will be decided in Pittsburgh, and I believe Cincinnati loses their undefeated season there.
The Big Ten pseudo-championship game happens this week as Iowa visits Ohio State with the Rose Bowl on the line. My pick on this game is below. The Mountain West will also be decided this week as TCU battles Utah. The craziest race left is in the Pac-10, where Oregon and Arizona hold a one loss advantage on Stanford, USC, and Oregon State. Arizona and Oregon play most of the contenders in their last three games, so expect on of them to take care of business and wrap up the Rose Bowl berth. The SEC already has Florida and Alabama in the championship game, and as of today I would say Alabama has the inside track, but you can never ever count out Mr. Tebow. With a few weeks left, there are a lot of teams still in the mix for these BCS berths, but the first will be officially set this weekend and things will clarify from there.
One final note before we return to BCS bowl projections and that is the reinstatement of LaGarrette Blount. As you probably recall, Blount was suspended for the remainder of his senior season after taking a swing at a Boise State player after the Ducks lost their first game of the season. How fitting is it that coming out of Oregon's second loss of the season two months later, Blount has completed all the necessary requirements to rejoin the team according to Oregon and the Pac-10 Conference. While it seemed unlikely in September when the season started with an unpleasant bang, Blount has become the ultimate story of redemption and forgiveness in college football this season. While this very weekly article called for him to stay completely out of college football many weeks ago, I will retract those sentiments and admit that this is a much better result for all parties. Congratulations to Oregon for working this out and hopefully the Ducks can find a way to let Blount lead them to the Rose Bowl.
So back to the BCS Projections. It only took one week for each of my Rose Bowl teams to lose and muddy the waters, but both the Ducks and Hawkeyes have their destiny completely in their hands. Nevertheless, I see more losses in their futures and this will lead to a rematch which should actually be better than the September version. I still like Florida and Texas to run the table, and the upsets last week have made it more likely that Boise State will get a berth. There's no denying the monetary payoff of picking a Penn State or USC as an at-large this year, but the negative PR which will ensue if a two or three loss team gets selected over undefeated Boise State for the second straight year will be disasterous. Therefore I'm still sticking with the minority position and Boise State gets the placed by the bowl that sent them packing last year.
2010 BCS Bowl Projections, 4 Weeks To Go
BCS Championship - Florida vs. Texas
Orange - Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Fiesta - Miami vs. Boise State
Sugar - Alabama vs. Pittsburgh
Rose - Ohio State vs. USC
While the battle for the Potato State should be a wild one, the first game of the week has to be Friday night's West Virginia-Cincinnati showdown. We discussed Zach Collaros earlier and the backup quarterback will get the start and most of the snaps again as Tony Pike finishes his recovery. Collaros has been nothign short of fantastic running and passing, but he is helped tremendously by receivers Mardy Gilyard and Armon Binns. West Virginia has been questionable against strong passing games, which is troubling in this game. Cincinnati's defense will be looking to recover from last week's setback by feasting on banged up stars QB Jarrett Brown and RB Noel Devine. If Devine cannot go, the Mountaineers will not be able to keep the Bearcat offense off the field enough to win. As the injury report does not look promising at this point in the week and considering WVU's struggles on the road, Cincinnati rolls to a 20 point win.
The second game of the week is as close as the Mountain West will get to a championship game as 5-0 Utah heads to 5-0 TCU. Now BYU is not quite out of the mix if Utah wins, but these two teams have been the most dominant conference teams. Utah has run the table twice and is the only representative of the MWC to go to the BCS, but the Utes are not looking to share that honor with TCU. Utah comes in on a six game winning streak and a relatively new freshman starting QB Jordan Wynn. Wynn needs his pair of running backs Eddie Wide and Sausan Shakerin. TCU has a solid offense, but the real story is the defense, which will be tougher than anything Wynn has ever seen, especially in a hostile Texas environment. On the other side of the ball, the Utah defense will need to stack up on the front and hope that their line does what no other team has been able to do: stop the Horned Frog rushing attack. QB Andy Dalton as well as a trio of running backs will try to wear down the Utes defense. Look for Joseph Turner to lead the way as the Horned Frogs win a very competitive 7 point game.
The top game of the week is the Big Ten Championship as Iowa visits Ohio State. Iowa has been the road warriors, sweeping arguably the toughest conference road schedule in the country so far at Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Penn State. However, for all the impressive comebacks against Wisconsin and Penn State, the Buckeyes have done them one better by completely suffocating each of those teams in blowouts. Each of these defenses has a great front four which will put pressure on the young quarterbacks each side has. The problem for Iowa is that the skill talent is just not there to deal with the pressure in Columbus now that QB Ricky Stanzi will need to watch freshman James Vandenberg take the reins. While Ohio State QB Terrelle Pryor will likely be pressured by the Iowa defensive front, Pryor has shown much more maturity since the Purdue loss and is so hard for defensive linemen to bring down in the backfield. This would be one of the best matchups in Big Ten history if Iowa were fully loaded, but sadly that's just not the case. Iowa will be very lucky to score at all against this OSU defense, while the Buckeyes will likely come up with a touchdown or two on defense if nothing else. Buckeyes to the Rose Bowl with a 24 point win.
2009 GOTW Record: 17-13
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 - Week 10
1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Florida
4. TCU
5. Cincinnati
6. Boise State
7. Georgia Tech
8. Pittsburgh
9. USC
10. Ohio State
Just Missed: Utah, Iowa, Oregon, Houston, Arizona
As it turns out, I think I will be attending both the WVU-Cincy and OSU-Iowa games this weekend thanks to both being within 2 hours of each other and on consecutive days. Wherever you may take in the action this weekend, enjoy the slight Indian summer we're enjoying before the chill of the holidays comes calling. We'll see you next week when at least one of the BCS Rose Bowl slots will be filled.
Before we get into the contenders, let's discuss why the Hawkeyes were the first to fall out. Iowa started the season by losing their superstar running back to the NFL draft a year early, then the problems compounded when starter Jewel Hampton suffered a season-ending injury in the fall practices. Already down to option number 3, the Hawkeyes suffered another loss as Adam Robinson went down two weeks ago and this left basically one true freshman Brandon Wegher and no other good options. To further exacerbate the problems, TE Tony Moeaki, OL Dace Richardson, SS Brett Greenwood, and WR Brett Greenwood all sustained injuries that knocked them out of games in October and some in November. So when the unquestioned leader QB Ricky Stanzi fell to injury in the second quarter on Saturday, the Iowa offense came to a screeching halt. Iowa barely sniffed Northwestern's end of the field and the day was lost. What this proves is that with limited talent (which is what Kirk Ferentz has to work with), there's only so much injury adversity you can overcome. The Hawkeyes are to be commended for walking a tightrope all season and playing shorthanded, but that will not comfort their fans as a dream season could very well come crashing to a halt in Columbus this Saturday. But more on that later.
In the national title race, non-BCS schools are non-factors, and even mighty TCU will be dragged down enough by the bad teams in the MWC too much in the computer ratings. With Iowa, Oregon, and LSU leaving the picture last weekend, there's only four teams with a shot to play for the national championship now. Alabama and Florida will duke it out in the SEC Championship in three weeks, while Texas plays out the string in the Big XII and Cincinnati has a monster final three games. The difference between teams like Cincinnati and teams like Iowa showed last weekend as Cincinnati continued to reap the benefits of having a great backup quarterback while Iowa could not overcome the same scenario. Cincinnati has the hardest schedule remaining of the contenders, but things are going just fine as Brian Kelly is able to bench a quarterback who was a legitimate Heisman candidate before his injury. There's no doubt an undefeated SEC Champion and an undefeated Texas will meet in Pasadena if each stays undefeated, but things get interesting if losses happen to the top 3 teams in the current BCS Standings. If Texas loses to one of the mediocre teams left on their schedule, there's no question an undefeated Cincinnati team coming off wins against West Virginia and Pittsburgh will leap over the Longhorns. But what about the Bearcats versus a one loss SEC Champion? While it sort of depends on when the SEC Champion loses (earlier being better of course), but I think Cincinnati would play Texas if they are the only two BCS conference champions who remain undefeated.
I hold this belief in Cincinnati for multiple reasons. The voters are coming around to Cincinnati and will only do that more and more if they keep winning in the tough November schedule. The fact that Tony Pike is being benched in favor of Zach Collaros proves that Cincinnati has enough offense to get in a shootout with any of the three teams above them. While the 45 points surrendered to UCONN last weekend is troubling when comparing defenses, the Bearcats have been solid the rest of the season. Although Alabama or Florida would be coming off a massive win, Cincinnati would presumably be coming off a win against a possible Top 5 opponent on the road in Pittsburgh. While the SEC has won the past three BCS titles, it would be very upsetting to see a BCS Conference team go undefeated and not make the championship, hence I suspect voters would overcompensate on behalf of the Bearcats against a one-loss SEC Champion. So Cincinnati only has to cheer for one more loss to be in the driver's seat for the BCS Championship. Unfortunately for Cincinnati, this does not seem likely to happen. That's why we play the games though!
So with the pecking order in the BCS established, now is a fantastic time to review all the conference races coming to a close in two or three weeks. In the ACC, it looks like Clemson will be able to finish off the two lower-tier ACC teams left on their schedule to meet Georgia Tech in December. One has to figure Georgia Tech wins that matchup. The Big XII South is all Texas now barring two incredible losses, but the North is completely up for grabs. Expect the winner of Kansas State and Nebraska to meet Texas, but the Longhorns should finish undefeated to atone for last year's diappointment. The Big East has somehow backloaded their schedule yet again, as undefeated Cincinnati and Pittsburgh each have to deal with the only one-loss team in the conference West Virginia before clashing on December 5. WVU will not sweep both of them, so the conference title will be decided in Pittsburgh, and I believe Cincinnati loses their undefeated season there.
The Big Ten pseudo-championship game happens this week as Iowa visits Ohio State with the Rose Bowl on the line. My pick on this game is below. The Mountain West will also be decided this week as TCU battles Utah. The craziest race left is in the Pac-10, where Oregon and Arizona hold a one loss advantage on Stanford, USC, and Oregon State. Arizona and Oregon play most of the contenders in their last three games, so expect on of them to take care of business and wrap up the Rose Bowl berth. The SEC already has Florida and Alabama in the championship game, and as of today I would say Alabama has the inside track, but you can never ever count out Mr. Tebow. With a few weeks left, there are a lot of teams still in the mix for these BCS berths, but the first will be officially set this weekend and things will clarify from there.
One final note before we return to BCS bowl projections and that is the reinstatement of LaGarrette Blount. As you probably recall, Blount was suspended for the remainder of his senior season after taking a swing at a Boise State player after the Ducks lost their first game of the season. How fitting is it that coming out of Oregon's second loss of the season two months later, Blount has completed all the necessary requirements to rejoin the team according to Oregon and the Pac-10 Conference. While it seemed unlikely in September when the season started with an unpleasant bang, Blount has become the ultimate story of redemption and forgiveness in college football this season. While this very weekly article called for him to stay completely out of college football many weeks ago, I will retract those sentiments and admit that this is a much better result for all parties. Congratulations to Oregon for working this out and hopefully the Ducks can find a way to let Blount lead them to the Rose Bowl.
So back to the BCS Projections. It only took one week for each of my Rose Bowl teams to lose and muddy the waters, but both the Ducks and Hawkeyes have their destiny completely in their hands. Nevertheless, I see more losses in their futures and this will lead to a rematch which should actually be better than the September version. I still like Florida and Texas to run the table, and the upsets last week have made it more likely that Boise State will get a berth. There's no denying the monetary payoff of picking a Penn State or USC as an at-large this year, but the negative PR which will ensue if a two or three loss team gets selected over undefeated Boise State for the second straight year will be disasterous. Therefore I'm still sticking with the minority position and Boise State gets the placed by the bowl that sent them packing last year.
2010 BCS Bowl Projections, 4 Weeks To Go
BCS Championship - Florida vs. Texas
Orange - Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Fiesta - Miami vs. Boise State
Sugar - Alabama vs. Pittsburgh
Rose - Ohio State vs. USC
While the battle for the Potato State should be a wild one, the first game of the week has to be Friday night's West Virginia-Cincinnati showdown. We discussed Zach Collaros earlier and the backup quarterback will get the start and most of the snaps again as Tony Pike finishes his recovery. Collaros has been nothign short of fantastic running and passing, but he is helped tremendously by receivers Mardy Gilyard and Armon Binns. West Virginia has been questionable against strong passing games, which is troubling in this game. Cincinnati's defense will be looking to recover from last week's setback by feasting on banged up stars QB Jarrett Brown and RB Noel Devine. If Devine cannot go, the Mountaineers will not be able to keep the Bearcat offense off the field enough to win. As the injury report does not look promising at this point in the week and considering WVU's struggles on the road, Cincinnati rolls to a 20 point win.
The second game of the week is as close as the Mountain West will get to a championship game as 5-0 Utah heads to 5-0 TCU. Now BYU is not quite out of the mix if Utah wins, but these two teams have been the most dominant conference teams. Utah has run the table twice and is the only representative of the MWC to go to the BCS, but the Utes are not looking to share that honor with TCU. Utah comes in on a six game winning streak and a relatively new freshman starting QB Jordan Wynn. Wynn needs his pair of running backs Eddie Wide and Sausan Shakerin. TCU has a solid offense, but the real story is the defense, which will be tougher than anything Wynn has ever seen, especially in a hostile Texas environment. On the other side of the ball, the Utah defense will need to stack up on the front and hope that their line does what no other team has been able to do: stop the Horned Frog rushing attack. QB Andy Dalton as well as a trio of running backs will try to wear down the Utes defense. Look for Joseph Turner to lead the way as the Horned Frogs win a very competitive 7 point game.
The top game of the week is the Big Ten Championship as Iowa visits Ohio State. Iowa has been the road warriors, sweeping arguably the toughest conference road schedule in the country so far at Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Penn State. However, for all the impressive comebacks against Wisconsin and Penn State, the Buckeyes have done them one better by completely suffocating each of those teams in blowouts. Each of these defenses has a great front four which will put pressure on the young quarterbacks each side has. The problem for Iowa is that the skill talent is just not there to deal with the pressure in Columbus now that QB Ricky Stanzi will need to watch freshman James Vandenberg take the reins. While Ohio State QB Terrelle Pryor will likely be pressured by the Iowa defensive front, Pryor has shown much more maturity since the Purdue loss and is so hard for defensive linemen to bring down in the backfield. This would be one of the best matchups in Big Ten history if Iowa were fully loaded, but sadly that's just not the case. Iowa will be very lucky to score at all against this OSU defense, while the Buckeyes will likely come up with a touchdown or two on defense if nothing else. Buckeyes to the Rose Bowl with a 24 point win.
2009 GOTW Record: 17-13
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 - Week 10
1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Florida
4. TCU
5. Cincinnati
6. Boise State
7. Georgia Tech
8. Pittsburgh
9. USC
10. Ohio State
Just Missed: Utah, Iowa, Oregon, Houston, Arizona
As it turns out, I think I will be attending both the WVU-Cincy and OSU-Iowa games this weekend thanks to both being within 2 hours of each other and on consecutive days. Wherever you may take in the action this weekend, enjoy the slight Indian summer we're enjoying before the chill of the holidays comes calling. We'll see you next week when at least one of the BCS Rose Bowl slots will be filled.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Escaping For A While - November is For Contenders
I have the unfortunate task of heading to a family member's funeral this Friday. It is at times like these when any escape from the disappointments of life is welcome, and this Saturday, that will be a great slate of games in college football for me. While this certainly always puts things in perspective, my only lesson in this is to cherish every moment you have, whether that's watching you beloved team on the TV or spending time with relatives. But we've now hit the home stretch as the calendars turn from the middle month of the season to the final month of the season. November is a month for contenders, and we will find out quickly whether the "undefeated 7" who have escaped unscathed now for 3 weeks running will continue to stay a group of 7.
After Texas dispatched Oklahoma State like seemingly every other season in recent memory, it now seems virtually impossible for the national championship to be anything other than the SEC Champion versus the Longhorns, barring a major November upset. Thankfully such an upset has happened every year this decade in November except for 2005, when coincidentally, Texas won their national championship over USC. There will never be a single season to "break" the BCS, but if 5 or 6 of the 7 undefeated teams make it through November unscathed, the proponents of a playoff will have their perfect storm to point to for all time. One undefeated team getting left out is not such a huge deal and it's only happened once to a BCS conference champion (Auburn). Nobody is arguing Cincinnati or Iowa deserves to play in Pasadena any more than Texas and the SEC Champion. But these will be more BCS Conference champions who did everything set on their plate, and in the case of the Hawkeyes, sweeping the most difficult road schedule in the country. While a huge upset seems like something that will come for sure, the debate that could ensue if it doesn't happen would be worth the wait.
Just to be perfectly clear, the SEC Champion referred to in this scenario is not limited to Florida and Alabama. Yes LSU can still leapfrog Oregon, Cincinnati, Iowa, TCU, and Boise State with wins this weekend over Alabama and a revenge win over Florida. This may not seem fair to outsiders, but until the SEC Champion is knocked off in a national championship game, that conference essentially has the benefit of the doubt. So if the Bayou Bengals come up with the upset this weekend, they cannot be counted out in the national title picture unlike pretty much everyone beneath them in the BCS Standings. Now if we could only get the SEC officials to play nice and not become major factors in these games, we might have less of a beef with an LSU jumping so many undefeated teams.
Although each of the undefeated seven has a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way, each team has one game that stands out as the most difficult game or biggest trap game remaining. On November 6 we begin with Boise State's greatest test left, a road game at Louisiana Tech. Yes I'm serious, this is trap game material if nothing else. This Saturday brings us Alabama's biggest test in the Saban Bowl as LSU comes calling. Then we move to November 14, where Iowa faces a huge road test again in Columbus. The much anticipated Utah-TCU game will also be played that day, which is likely all that stands between the Horned Frogs and perfection. On Thanksgiving the Longhorns take on their heated rival Texas A&M. Then the final week of the season on December 5 will bring Florida's bigges test in the SEC Championship (yes they have already won the East) and Cincinnati will travel to Pittsburgh for what could be the Big East title game. West Virginia lost their undefeated season and national championship hopes in 2007 on a December weekend in Pittsburgh, so do not sleep on this game. Other than Texas and Boise State, each of these teams could lose the games listed and it would not surprise many people.
If you flipped through your TV dial in October and said "what in the world are they wearing?" about a college or pro football team, you would not be alone. Apparently retro or alternative jerseys are the in vogue thing in 2009, as some of the most tradition-laden programs have pulled stunts on par with Notre Dame green jerseys or Oregon's weekly crimes against fashion. Of course when Oregon is stomping through USC and on their way to the first non-USC Pac-10 championship since 2001, why not emulate the Ducks? It was cute when Tennessee wore the black jerseys. It was questionable when Georgia threw away their red helmet tradition for black helmets and pants. Now the announcement has come out that Ohio State will wear retro alternative uniforms for the Michigan game. Ohio State? Really? I promise if we see Penn State putting words or a logo on their uniforms, we are at the end of days. One can only hope these uniforms are more motivated out of respect for history (as Ohio State says they are celebrating the 1954 national champion Buckeyes and Notre Dame with the green jersey history), but it seems more like a silly marketing ploy.
With November comes the perennial BCS bowl projections. With the exception of craziness in 2007, we've been able to accuratley project the BCS Bowls the past 5 seasons. This week I'll explain the process for you so that you may be able to follow along with less explanation in later weeks. This year is the fourth year the BCS Championship game gets the top two ranked teams in the final BCS Standings. As of right now, that looks like #1 Florida, the SEC Champion, and #2 Texas, the Big XII Champion. This leaves the champions of the remaining BCS Conferences as 4 more automatic qualifiers: Cincinnati (Big East), Iowa (Big Ten), Oregon (Pac-10), and Georgia Tech (AcC). Then the top rated non-BCS School in the Top 12 is also awarded an automatic berth, which will be TCU this season. Three at-large berths remain assuming no BCS conference non-champion ends up in the number 3 of number 4 slot, which would entitle that team to an automatic berth. I don't see that happening with all the undefeated teams. So the pool of at large teams could include teams like Notre Dame, but it certainly will include Boise State, Alabama, and other top 12 teams.
The Pac-10 and Big Ten champs get slotted into the Rose Bowl automatically, so Oregon and Iowa go there. The ACC Champion heads to the Orange Bowl, so Georgia Tech is headed to Miami. The Sugar Bowl lost their SEC Champion, so they get first selection of the remaining teams, followed by the Fiesta Bowl who lost Texas. Then the bowls pick in reverse order of chronological order of the games to fill the remaining slots, which is Orange, Fiesta, Sugar in 2010. In other words, the selection order in this mock up will be Sugar - Fiesta - Orange - Fiesta - Sugar. The Sugar Bowl will definitely want the SEC Runner-Up and will take Alabama off the board. The Fiesta Bowl will want to grab two of the undefeated teams left if all three are on the board, so I suspect they will grab Cincinnati. The Orange Bowl will take the best team available, that being TCU. Then the Fiesta will set up a battle of undefeated teams by taking Boise State. This leaves an interesting conundrum for the Sugar Bowl. Will they take USC, Notre Dame, or some lesser known program. It's already stretching it putting two non-BCS Schools in, so I suspect the USC head to head win will lock Notre Dame out of the BCS even if they are eligible. USC to the Sugar.
2010 BCS Bowl Projections, 5 Weeks To Go
BCS Championship - Florida vs. Texas
Orange - Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Fiesta - Cincinnati vs. Boise State
Sugar - Alabama vs. USC
Rose - Iowa vs. Oregon
With that tasty set of bowl games set up, let's turn to the games of the week. The top two games of the week are easy but there are a lot of contenders for this opening slot. I'm giving the nod to Navy at Notre Dame. While there is no streak of Notre Dame wins on the line anymore, this series is a lot more fun now that it is competitive. Each of these teams has something to play for, as Navy seeks bowl eligibility and Notre Dame hopes to keep BCS Bowl hopes alive. Navy is again a triple option attack which is very hard to prepare for, so look for Ricky Dobbs to have a much bigger game than he had last year against the Irish. When Notre Dame has the ball, look for the emerging passing attack to be even better with the return of WR Michael Floyd. With Jimmy Clausen already putting up big numbers with one star receiver in Golden Tate, look for Navy to be very hard-pressed to keep Notre Dame from passing all over the field. If there's one thing that may shift this game, it is the ball control nature of the triple option. Notre Dame stopped it last year, but this is a much better Navy team than ever before, evidenced by tough play all season long. While Navy is tricky, this Notre Dame team is just too talented to not outscore this Navy offense. Irish win by 14.
The second game of the week is Terrelle Pryor's homecoming to Pennsylvania as Ohio State goes to Penn State. This game will hopefully finally tell us who is the second-best team in the Big Ten and just who of these teams is legitimate. Penn State has lost their only relevant game to Iowa, while Ohio State's most impressive win is a defensive fueled blowout of Wisconsin. This matchup may be the best of the weekend if you like strong defenses and playmaking quarterbacks. Daryll Clark may have been injured in the critical fourth quarter of last year's win in Columbus, but Clark is the driving force that will really challenge the secondary and linebackers of the Buckeye defense. Meanwhile, Penn State will try to follow the Purdue formula of containing and pressuring Pryor into bad decisions. Last year Pryor made the only turnover that pretty much sealed the game for PSU, so expect him to be extra careful to avoid that fate twice in a row. Expect this game to be dominated by defenses but maybe not quite like last year's 13-6 struggle. In a game of field position and defense, you have to look at special teams play. Considering OSU lost their starting kicker Aaron Pettrey for the season last week and the shakiness of the backup kickers, Penn State will win by being more successful kicking field goals. PSU by 6.
The top game of the week is the final super showdown of the regular season in the SEC, Alabama hosting LSU. LSU looked absolutely lifeless against Florida a few weeks ago, and the offense continues to sputter behind QB Jordan Jefferson. Alabama has found a solid offensive gameplan with a few accurate passes from Greg McElroy and a heavy dose of rushing with Mark Ingram. Ingram already is on some Heisman radars, but this game should be his breakout game as LSU has shown some weakness against the run. As much as you'd like to believe this game will hold all the drama of last year's epic showdown which ended with a blocked field goal, one has to imagine Alabama has been waiting to finally knock their main competition out of the race and all but lock up the match up with the Gators for the second straight season. Alabama rolls over the overrated LSU defense to a 18 point win.
2009 GOTW Record: 16-11
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 - Week 9
1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Florida
4. Cincinnati
5. Iowa
6. TCU
7. Boise State
8. Oregon
9. Penn State
10. Georgia Tech
Just Missed: LSU, Pittsburgh, USC, Ohio State, Utah
So returning to the escapism, I cannot wait to get to 3:30 Saturday afternoon so that I may enjoy swapping between the two top games of the week at will on the television. Whether the Big Ten showdown is the best or the SEC West Championship, I will be able to escape what has been a bad week and turn the page to a new week where things will hopefully be better. Whether you are just watching for fun or as an escape, enjoy the weekend slate of games. We'll see you back here next week!
After Texas dispatched Oklahoma State like seemingly every other season in recent memory, it now seems virtually impossible for the national championship to be anything other than the SEC Champion versus the Longhorns, barring a major November upset. Thankfully such an upset has happened every year this decade in November except for 2005, when coincidentally, Texas won their national championship over USC. There will never be a single season to "break" the BCS, but if 5 or 6 of the 7 undefeated teams make it through November unscathed, the proponents of a playoff will have their perfect storm to point to for all time. One undefeated team getting left out is not such a huge deal and it's only happened once to a BCS conference champion (Auburn). Nobody is arguing Cincinnati or Iowa deserves to play in Pasadena any more than Texas and the SEC Champion. But these will be more BCS Conference champions who did everything set on their plate, and in the case of the Hawkeyes, sweeping the most difficult road schedule in the country. While a huge upset seems like something that will come for sure, the debate that could ensue if it doesn't happen would be worth the wait.
Just to be perfectly clear, the SEC Champion referred to in this scenario is not limited to Florida and Alabama. Yes LSU can still leapfrog Oregon, Cincinnati, Iowa, TCU, and Boise State with wins this weekend over Alabama and a revenge win over Florida. This may not seem fair to outsiders, but until the SEC Champion is knocked off in a national championship game, that conference essentially has the benefit of the doubt. So if the Bayou Bengals come up with the upset this weekend, they cannot be counted out in the national title picture unlike pretty much everyone beneath them in the BCS Standings. Now if we could only get the SEC officials to play nice and not become major factors in these games, we might have less of a beef with an LSU jumping so many undefeated teams.
Although each of the undefeated seven has a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way, each team has one game that stands out as the most difficult game or biggest trap game remaining. On November 6 we begin with Boise State's greatest test left, a road game at Louisiana Tech. Yes I'm serious, this is trap game material if nothing else. This Saturday brings us Alabama's biggest test in the Saban Bowl as LSU comes calling. Then we move to November 14, where Iowa faces a huge road test again in Columbus. The much anticipated Utah-TCU game will also be played that day, which is likely all that stands between the Horned Frogs and perfection. On Thanksgiving the Longhorns take on their heated rival Texas A&M. Then the final week of the season on December 5 will bring Florida's bigges test in the SEC Championship (yes they have already won the East) and Cincinnati will travel to Pittsburgh for what could be the Big East title game. West Virginia lost their undefeated season and national championship hopes in 2007 on a December weekend in Pittsburgh, so do not sleep on this game. Other than Texas and Boise State, each of these teams could lose the games listed and it would not surprise many people.
If you flipped through your TV dial in October and said "what in the world are they wearing?" about a college or pro football team, you would not be alone. Apparently retro or alternative jerseys are the in vogue thing in 2009, as some of the most tradition-laden programs have pulled stunts on par with Notre Dame green jerseys or Oregon's weekly crimes against fashion. Of course when Oregon is stomping through USC and on their way to the first non-USC Pac-10 championship since 2001, why not emulate the Ducks? It was cute when Tennessee wore the black jerseys. It was questionable when Georgia threw away their red helmet tradition for black helmets and pants. Now the announcement has come out that Ohio State will wear retro alternative uniforms for the Michigan game. Ohio State? Really? I promise if we see Penn State putting words or a logo on their uniforms, we are at the end of days. One can only hope these uniforms are more motivated out of respect for history (as Ohio State says they are celebrating the 1954 national champion Buckeyes and Notre Dame with the green jersey history), but it seems more like a silly marketing ploy.
With November comes the perennial BCS bowl projections. With the exception of craziness in 2007, we've been able to accuratley project the BCS Bowls the past 5 seasons. This week I'll explain the process for you so that you may be able to follow along with less explanation in later weeks. This year is the fourth year the BCS Championship game gets the top two ranked teams in the final BCS Standings. As of right now, that looks like #1 Florida, the SEC Champion, and #2 Texas, the Big XII Champion. This leaves the champions of the remaining BCS Conferences as 4 more automatic qualifiers: Cincinnati (Big East), Iowa (Big Ten), Oregon (Pac-10), and Georgia Tech (AcC). Then the top rated non-BCS School in the Top 12 is also awarded an automatic berth, which will be TCU this season. Three at-large berths remain assuming no BCS conference non-champion ends up in the number 3 of number 4 slot, which would entitle that team to an automatic berth. I don't see that happening with all the undefeated teams. So the pool of at large teams could include teams like Notre Dame, but it certainly will include Boise State, Alabama, and other top 12 teams.
The Pac-10 and Big Ten champs get slotted into the Rose Bowl automatically, so Oregon and Iowa go there. The ACC Champion heads to the Orange Bowl, so Georgia Tech is headed to Miami. The Sugar Bowl lost their SEC Champion, so they get first selection of the remaining teams, followed by the Fiesta Bowl who lost Texas. Then the bowls pick in reverse order of chronological order of the games to fill the remaining slots, which is Orange, Fiesta, Sugar in 2010. In other words, the selection order in this mock up will be Sugar - Fiesta - Orange - Fiesta - Sugar. The Sugar Bowl will definitely want the SEC Runner-Up and will take Alabama off the board. The Fiesta Bowl will want to grab two of the undefeated teams left if all three are on the board, so I suspect they will grab Cincinnati. The Orange Bowl will take the best team available, that being TCU. Then the Fiesta will set up a battle of undefeated teams by taking Boise State. This leaves an interesting conundrum for the Sugar Bowl. Will they take USC, Notre Dame, or some lesser known program. It's already stretching it putting two non-BCS Schools in, so I suspect the USC head to head win will lock Notre Dame out of the BCS even if they are eligible. USC to the Sugar.
2010 BCS Bowl Projections, 5 Weeks To Go
BCS Championship - Florida vs. Texas
Orange - Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Fiesta - Cincinnati vs. Boise State
Sugar - Alabama vs. USC
Rose - Iowa vs. Oregon
With that tasty set of bowl games set up, let's turn to the games of the week. The top two games of the week are easy but there are a lot of contenders for this opening slot. I'm giving the nod to Navy at Notre Dame. While there is no streak of Notre Dame wins on the line anymore, this series is a lot more fun now that it is competitive. Each of these teams has something to play for, as Navy seeks bowl eligibility and Notre Dame hopes to keep BCS Bowl hopes alive. Navy is again a triple option attack which is very hard to prepare for, so look for Ricky Dobbs to have a much bigger game than he had last year against the Irish. When Notre Dame has the ball, look for the emerging passing attack to be even better with the return of WR Michael Floyd. With Jimmy Clausen already putting up big numbers with one star receiver in Golden Tate, look for Navy to be very hard-pressed to keep Notre Dame from passing all over the field. If there's one thing that may shift this game, it is the ball control nature of the triple option. Notre Dame stopped it last year, but this is a much better Navy team than ever before, evidenced by tough play all season long. While Navy is tricky, this Notre Dame team is just too talented to not outscore this Navy offense. Irish win by 14.
The second game of the week is Terrelle Pryor's homecoming to Pennsylvania as Ohio State goes to Penn State. This game will hopefully finally tell us who is the second-best team in the Big Ten and just who of these teams is legitimate. Penn State has lost their only relevant game to Iowa, while Ohio State's most impressive win is a defensive fueled blowout of Wisconsin. This matchup may be the best of the weekend if you like strong defenses and playmaking quarterbacks. Daryll Clark may have been injured in the critical fourth quarter of last year's win in Columbus, but Clark is the driving force that will really challenge the secondary and linebackers of the Buckeye defense. Meanwhile, Penn State will try to follow the Purdue formula of containing and pressuring Pryor into bad decisions. Last year Pryor made the only turnover that pretty much sealed the game for PSU, so expect him to be extra careful to avoid that fate twice in a row. Expect this game to be dominated by defenses but maybe not quite like last year's 13-6 struggle. In a game of field position and defense, you have to look at special teams play. Considering OSU lost their starting kicker Aaron Pettrey for the season last week and the shakiness of the backup kickers, Penn State will win by being more successful kicking field goals. PSU by 6.
The top game of the week is the final super showdown of the regular season in the SEC, Alabama hosting LSU. LSU looked absolutely lifeless against Florida a few weeks ago, and the offense continues to sputter behind QB Jordan Jefferson. Alabama has found a solid offensive gameplan with a few accurate passes from Greg McElroy and a heavy dose of rushing with Mark Ingram. Ingram already is on some Heisman radars, but this game should be his breakout game as LSU has shown some weakness against the run. As much as you'd like to believe this game will hold all the drama of last year's epic showdown which ended with a blocked field goal, one has to imagine Alabama has been waiting to finally knock their main competition out of the race and all but lock up the match up with the Gators for the second straight season. Alabama rolls over the overrated LSU defense to a 18 point win.
2009 GOTW Record: 16-11
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 - Week 9
1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Florida
4. Cincinnati
5. Iowa
6. TCU
7. Boise State
8. Oregon
9. Penn State
10. Georgia Tech
Just Missed: LSU, Pittsburgh, USC, Ohio State, Utah
So returning to the escapism, I cannot wait to get to 3:30 Saturday afternoon so that I may enjoy swapping between the two top games of the week at will on the television. Whether the Big Ten showdown is the best or the SEC West Championship, I will be able to escape what has been a bad week and turn the page to a new week where things will hopefully be better. Whether you are just watching for fun or as an escape, enjoy the weekend slate of games. We'll see you back here next week!
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