New Year's Day's bowl games continue with a pair of matchups each featuring a Big XII team. In the first, the Gator Bowl pits Nebraska against Clemson, teams who had opposite expectations coming into the year. The Cotton Bowl in Dallas, meanwhile, features Texas Tech and the Red Raiders' high-powered offense against Mississippi and Houston Nutt's "Wild Rebel" look in a matchup that could keep the scoreboard operator busy. Both games provide quality appetizers prior to the beginning of BCS play later in the day.
Gator | Cotton
GATOR BOWL - Clemson vs Nebraska
January 1 - 12:00 PM CST CBS TV - Jacksonville, FL
The matchup...
One could looks at this matchup from the context of the beginning of the season: Clemson had national title aspirations and Nebraska had a new attitude with new coach Bo Pelini. While both struggled in the first half of the season and shattered those expectations, nobody should look at this game as a disappointment. It is New Year's Day, which still holds a lot of significance for these proud programs.
The way fans should frame the game is a matchup of red hot teams and rising star coaches. Bo Pelini waited for his opportunity at his alma mater for four seasons, and now he has the Cornhuskers moving back to the proud defensive days of the 1980's and 1990's. Clemson also finished the season red hot after getting used to Dabo Swinney at midseason, and Swinney has more than earned the job Tommy Bowden gave up.
When Clemson has the ball...
Part of the reason Clemson underachieved this season was a slew of injuries on the offensive line. By November the crew was back in full force, and the results were obvious. Senior QB Cullen Harper will be eager to prove he can still play well in his final game, and this will be made easier with more time from the line. Also, look for the double-trouble rushing attack of James Davis and C.J. Spiller to be back on track.
Nebraska does not have the right to claim "The Blackshirts" title quite yet in 2008, but this group of young talents is not that far away. In a league full of dynamic offenses, Nebraska held strong on the back half of the season, mostly due to their defensive backfield. While Nebraska will likely not get enough pressure with the good Clemson line, the backfield could make enough big plays to keep this game close.
When Nebraska has the ball...
Lost in the mix of all the Heisman contender quarterbacks was a great story in QB Joe Ganz. Ganz may not have a flashy name, but he does have flashy statistics, throwing for over 3000 yards. His primary targets included Nate Swift and Mike McNeill. Nebraska also showed glimpses of a power rushing game forming, but the offensive line needs more work for them to rely upon that.
Clemson was not very strong consistently on defense, under either coach Bowden or coach Swinney. However, Clemson found a way to not break in crunch time in the red zone, and the Tigers only gave up 199 points all season. Look for Clemson to be up to the task of stopping this high powered Big XII offense, making for an exciting battle.
Star watch...
Both teams feature dual running backs, so the clear star is Nebraska QB Joe Ganz. A New Year's Day bowl game is the perfect opportunity for the country to officially meet this beast of the midwest, and perhaps count him among the other elites in the conference and the country. Look for a big game from Ganz.
Deciding factor...
The Nebraska offense has gaudy numbers like other quality Big XII teams, but will the same formula for success work out of conference against a decent defense? Clemson's defense has found a way to win games in the clutch, and this game will be no different. Joe Ganz has a breakout game, but it comes in a losing effort.
COTTON BOWL - Mississippi vs Texas Tech
January 2 - 1:00 PM CST FOX TV - Dallas, TX
The matchup...
Moving to a non-traditional January 2 date, the Cotton Bowl will be in the Dallas Cotton Bowl stadium for the final time this season. The farewell game for the stadium is a great matchup between two teams very closely tied to the southern region. This game could match two of the biggest surprises in college football in 2008.
The Red Raiders toyed with a national championship this season before falling at Oklahoma in November. Mississippi defeated Florida in the Swamp, handing the Gators their only loss. With both teams being so hot at the end of the season and consistently strong, this could be a good indicator of the BCS Championship outcome a few days later.
When Mississippi has the ball...
Part of the success story in coach Houston Nutt's first season at the helm was a much more high powered offense. Transfer quarterback Jevan Snead returns to Texas for the first time since leaving the Longhorns, and you know he would love to make a statement near his hometown. Mississippi is very balanced, passing for 220 yards and rushing for 180 yards per game.
The best news for the Rebels might be the defense they have drawn. While the Red Raiders are better than most seasons defensively, the Red Raiders still had trouble defending the multi-faceted attack of the Oklahoma Sooners. Mississippi is not quite that talented, but Ole Miss does bring a lot of different formations. The Red Raiders defense needs to step up to help win this game.
When Texas Tech has the ball...
Here's the headline act of the ballgame, as senior QB Graham Harrell throws his last college balls to standout receiver Michael Crabtree. The Red Raiders boast the second most passing yards in the country this season, but Mike Leach has taught a little more of a running game this season. Even the one team to beat the Red Raiders did so by outscoring them and keeping their offense off the field, so look for a lot of points in this game.
However, Mississippi has the correct balance to keep Texas Tech's offense off the field the majority of the time. During the latter half of the season, Mississippi kept opponents to about 12 points per game. That will not happen here, but don't expect easy sledding for the Red Raider offense.
Star watch...
Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree is already a two-time All-American, and he is only a sophomore. The honors are warranted, as this might be the best wide receiver in a decade to come through the college ranks. In his last game with Graham Harrell, look for some goodbye fireworks to light up the scoreboard.
Deciding factor...
Let's face it, Mississippi has gone on the road and won in the most hostile environments at Florida and LSU. Texas Tech does have a little homefield advantage in Dallas, but this will not make Ole Miss back down. The deciding factor will be whether Ole Miss can hold Texas Tech under 40 points, and I think they will not. Tech rolls to their most wins in school history.
Monday, December 29, 2008
Friday, December 26, 2008
2008 Bowl Preview Part V
As the final days of the year wind down, ranked teams begin making their way out of practice and back into the limelight in the pre-New Year's Bowl rush. Despite these bowls happening mid-week, there are a lot of compelling storylines and cross-conference rivalries that will begin being settled on the field for 2008-09. Today's preview looks at three great western bowl games, each with a fine matchup in the 2008 editions.
Holiday | Armed Forces | Sun
HOLIDAY BOWL - Oklahoma State vs Oregon
December 30 - 7:00 PM CST ESPN TV - San Diego, CA
The matchup...
It would be hard to imagine a much more balanced matchup if you handpicked any team from the Pac-10 and any opponent from the Big XII. Both of these teams finished 9-3, both boast great running backs, and both can fire up the scoreboard lights. This is poised to be a classic high-scoring affair.
While each team looks up to a big dog such as USC, Oklahoma, and Texas, both of these teams have created solid niches for themselves atop everybody else in their respective conferences. A lot of people will take the Big XII team in a mirror match like this because the Big XII was clearly stronger this season. Until the teams take the field and settle it, nobody really knows.
When Oklahoma State has the ball...
The Cowboys have an incredibly balanced offense, striking for 240 yards per game passing and 256 rushing. RB Kendall Hunter led the pass-happy Big XII conference with over 1500 rushing yards this season, but Oregon cannot ignore basher RB Keith Totson. Like all other good Big XII teams, the Cowboys also feature a dynamic passing duo, QB Zac Robinson and WR Dez Bryant.
So the Ducks are tasked with stopping the irresistable force. Oregon was statistically terrible agains the pass, which may open up a national spotlight opportunity for Dez Bryant. Still, the Ducks were better against Oregon State and over the latter half of their schedule. DB Nick Reed is a punisher on the defensive side any may be assigned to shut down the running game, but that will be a tall task.
When Oregon has the ball...
Whereas OSU will bring the option to open up the passing game, Oregon spreads the field and runs with power out of that spread. However, look for Oregon to break out a bunch of power formations against OSU, who played against a lot of spread this season. The strongest features of Oregon's offense are the two running backs, each nearly 1000 yard rushers in 2008: Jeremiah Johnson and LaGerrette Blount.
As bad as the Ducks were against the pass this season, Oregon State was worse. Again, the numbers are likely skewed by playing in the best offensive division in college football, but there's no excuse for how poor these numbers are. Sophomore QB Jeremiah Masoli only started the last month of the season but showed his poise under fire, leading Oregon to a season-ending three game win streak. The Cowboys will be in trouble defensively here.
Star watch...
So many to choose from, but WR Dez Bryant still stands out on the Oklahoma State side. Bryant very well may be a "Devin Hester" type player at the pro level, but Oklahoma State will enjoy and exploit his talents while they remain in Orange and Black. He will almost certainly find the endzone, and should be watche don every single play for the breakout.
Deciding factor...
Oregon coach Mike Belotti has been in a lot of battles and knows how this one will be decided: by the defenses. Expect a high-scoring affair, but the Oklahoma State defense has something to prove now that they are out of the Big XII. The Cowboys defense makes the difference in this one.
ARMED FORCES BOWL - Houston vs Air Force
December 31 - 11:00 AM CST ESPN TV - Fort Worth, TX
The matchup...
Anybody have that sense that there are too many bowls? While I love the bowl season being stacked with matchups good and bad, others say this game is a perfect example of why there should be fewer bowls because this is a rematch from September. However, Houston was mired in a 1-3 start and Air Force started strong.
The first game had Air Force race out to a four touchdown lead and almost blow it all in the fourth quarter. Air Force gained all of their 380 yards on the ground, a remarkable feat. But that game is in the past, and should have no bearing on the December battle.
When Houston has the ball...
The Cougars have the number one offense in the country, led by an amazing passing game. QB Case Keenum has 43 touchdowns this season and will break 5000 yards in this game for the season. The most surprising thing with his statistics is that his favorite target is a tight end Mark Hafner. Look for RB Tyron Carrier to balance the offensive attack.
Air Force had a fairly strong defense this season, which can be hard to do in the wide-open MWC. The Falcons are respectable against the pass, but they will be tested by the Houston offense who knows quite a bit more about the Falcon defense this time around. The defensive line must get pressure on Keenum to slow the Cougars.
When Air Force has the ball...
The clash of styles will be Houston's prolific passing against the Falcon rushing game, ranked 5th nationally. Air Force brings a corps of runners at you, with seven quality running backs splitting time. The top receiver only has 11 receptions, so there's no doubt where Air Force wants to bring the attack.
The good news for the Falcons is that the Cougar run defense is horrid. Houston has learned to outscore opponents this year, but Air Force will again try to grind the life out of the Cougars with ball control. The split will not be 380 rushing 0 passing this time around, but it will not be far off.
Star watch...
Houston sophomore QB Case Keenum is the man to keep an eye on in this battle. He will be limited in time of possession by the Air Force rushing attack, but he proved in September he can rally four or five quick scores on the Falcon defense if necessary. As Keenum goes, the Cougars will go.
Deciding factor...
In games with clash of styles on offense, there's something to be said for experience. The Air Force players are not new to their offense like Houston is this season, plus Air Force can hold onto the ball with a controlling rushing offense. If Air Force keeps Houston off the field like the first meeting, they will hold on to a lead again.
SUN BOWL - Oregon State vs Pittsburgh
December 31 - 1:00 PM CST CBS TV - El Paso, TX
The matchup...
Oregon State had a real chance at the Rose Bowl, with one game against Oregon making the difference and sending them here. They are rewarded with a matchup with a team facing a similar situation, as Pittsburgh could be in the Orange Bowl had they beaten Cincinnati.
The headliners in this game are young rushers, as these team feature the 2007 and 2008 freshman rushing leaders. Unlike the Beavers, Pittsburgh comes in on a slight roll.
When Oregon State has the ball...
Freshman RB Jacquizz Rodgers really defined the OSU season, as his slow start in the first two games and the injury holding him out against Oregon led to 3 of the Beavers' 4 losses. Without Rodgers, the Beavers have gone one-dimensional. Their QB Lyle Moevao cannot carry this offense by himself, although he does have a talented target in WR Sammie Stroughter.
The Panthers have a new attitude under Dave Wannstedt, and the results are finally showing on the field. Taking out a painful and embarrassing opener loss to Bowling Green, Pittsburgh is well on the way to capitalizing on the momentum of the huge WVU upset in 2007. A key to this reversion to glory has been a strong and opportunistic defense. If Rodgers does not play, Pittsburgh will likely eat the Beaver offense alive.
When Pittsburgh has the ball...
RB LeSean McCoy held the freshman rushing title last season, and he improved this year to help lead his team to doubling their win total from 2007. Pittsburgh's quarterback Bill Stull has done about as well as Moevao from OSU. Pitt can still be inconsistent on offense, but they are a much more cohesive unit than last year.
Oregon State does not boast a great defense, and they were rolled over for 400 yards rushing by the Oregon Ducks in the finale. With McCoy on a real roll entering this game, the Panther offense will try to continue this trend. Watch for the Beaver defense to make a clutch turnover or two though.
Star watch...
In this game, we'll go with both young running backs, Jacquizz Rodgers and LeSean McCoy. Rodgers would be the pick, but he may be ineffective coming off his injury, in which case McCoy is the star. McCoy will be a pro star someday, so watch his downhill rushing, very similar to a Beanie Wells type back for those who watch national Heisman candidates.
Deciding factor...
There's no question about it, the deciding factor is whether Rodgers plays and whether he plays well. If he is ineffective, the Pittsburgh defense will be very well prepared to stop the hampered Beaver offense. If Rodgers is present, watch for a fast and close game.
Holiday | Armed Forces | Sun
HOLIDAY BOWL - Oklahoma State vs Oregon
December 30 - 7:00 PM CST ESPN TV - San Diego, CA
The matchup...
It would be hard to imagine a much more balanced matchup if you handpicked any team from the Pac-10 and any opponent from the Big XII. Both of these teams finished 9-3, both boast great running backs, and both can fire up the scoreboard lights. This is poised to be a classic high-scoring affair.
While each team looks up to a big dog such as USC, Oklahoma, and Texas, both of these teams have created solid niches for themselves atop everybody else in their respective conferences. A lot of people will take the Big XII team in a mirror match like this because the Big XII was clearly stronger this season. Until the teams take the field and settle it, nobody really knows.
When Oklahoma State has the ball...
The Cowboys have an incredibly balanced offense, striking for 240 yards per game passing and 256 rushing. RB Kendall Hunter led the pass-happy Big XII conference with over 1500 rushing yards this season, but Oregon cannot ignore basher RB Keith Totson. Like all other good Big XII teams, the Cowboys also feature a dynamic passing duo, QB Zac Robinson and WR Dez Bryant.
So the Ducks are tasked with stopping the irresistable force. Oregon was statistically terrible agains the pass, which may open up a national spotlight opportunity for Dez Bryant. Still, the Ducks were better against Oregon State and over the latter half of their schedule. DB Nick Reed is a punisher on the defensive side any may be assigned to shut down the running game, but that will be a tall task.
When Oregon has the ball...
Whereas OSU will bring the option to open up the passing game, Oregon spreads the field and runs with power out of that spread. However, look for Oregon to break out a bunch of power formations against OSU, who played against a lot of spread this season. The strongest features of Oregon's offense are the two running backs, each nearly 1000 yard rushers in 2008: Jeremiah Johnson and LaGerrette Blount.
As bad as the Ducks were against the pass this season, Oregon State was worse. Again, the numbers are likely skewed by playing in the best offensive division in college football, but there's no excuse for how poor these numbers are. Sophomore QB Jeremiah Masoli only started the last month of the season but showed his poise under fire, leading Oregon to a season-ending three game win streak. The Cowboys will be in trouble defensively here.
Star watch...
So many to choose from, but WR Dez Bryant still stands out on the Oklahoma State side. Bryant very well may be a "Devin Hester" type player at the pro level, but Oklahoma State will enjoy and exploit his talents while they remain in Orange and Black. He will almost certainly find the endzone, and should be watche don every single play for the breakout.
Deciding factor...
Oregon coach Mike Belotti has been in a lot of battles and knows how this one will be decided: by the defenses. Expect a high-scoring affair, but the Oklahoma State defense has something to prove now that they are out of the Big XII. The Cowboys defense makes the difference in this one.
ARMED FORCES BOWL - Houston vs Air Force
December 31 - 11:00 AM CST ESPN TV - Fort Worth, TX
The matchup...
Anybody have that sense that there are too many bowls? While I love the bowl season being stacked with matchups good and bad, others say this game is a perfect example of why there should be fewer bowls because this is a rematch from September. However, Houston was mired in a 1-3 start and Air Force started strong.
The first game had Air Force race out to a four touchdown lead and almost blow it all in the fourth quarter. Air Force gained all of their 380 yards on the ground, a remarkable feat. But that game is in the past, and should have no bearing on the December battle.
When Houston has the ball...
The Cougars have the number one offense in the country, led by an amazing passing game. QB Case Keenum has 43 touchdowns this season and will break 5000 yards in this game for the season. The most surprising thing with his statistics is that his favorite target is a tight end Mark Hafner. Look for RB Tyron Carrier to balance the offensive attack.
Air Force had a fairly strong defense this season, which can be hard to do in the wide-open MWC. The Falcons are respectable against the pass, but they will be tested by the Houston offense who knows quite a bit more about the Falcon defense this time around. The defensive line must get pressure on Keenum to slow the Cougars.
When Air Force has the ball...
The clash of styles will be Houston's prolific passing against the Falcon rushing game, ranked 5th nationally. Air Force brings a corps of runners at you, with seven quality running backs splitting time. The top receiver only has 11 receptions, so there's no doubt where Air Force wants to bring the attack.
The good news for the Falcons is that the Cougar run defense is horrid. Houston has learned to outscore opponents this year, but Air Force will again try to grind the life out of the Cougars with ball control. The split will not be 380 rushing 0 passing this time around, but it will not be far off.
Star watch...
Houston sophomore QB Case Keenum is the man to keep an eye on in this battle. He will be limited in time of possession by the Air Force rushing attack, but he proved in September he can rally four or five quick scores on the Falcon defense if necessary. As Keenum goes, the Cougars will go.
Deciding factor...
In games with clash of styles on offense, there's something to be said for experience. The Air Force players are not new to their offense like Houston is this season, plus Air Force can hold onto the ball with a controlling rushing offense. If Air Force keeps Houston off the field like the first meeting, they will hold on to a lead again.
SUN BOWL - Oregon State vs Pittsburgh
December 31 - 1:00 PM CST CBS TV - El Paso, TX
The matchup...
Oregon State had a real chance at the Rose Bowl, with one game against Oregon making the difference and sending them here. They are rewarded with a matchup with a team facing a similar situation, as Pittsburgh could be in the Orange Bowl had they beaten Cincinnati.
The headliners in this game are young rushers, as these team feature the 2007 and 2008 freshman rushing leaders. Unlike the Beavers, Pittsburgh comes in on a slight roll.
When Oregon State has the ball...
Freshman RB Jacquizz Rodgers really defined the OSU season, as his slow start in the first two games and the injury holding him out against Oregon led to 3 of the Beavers' 4 losses. Without Rodgers, the Beavers have gone one-dimensional. Their QB Lyle Moevao cannot carry this offense by himself, although he does have a talented target in WR Sammie Stroughter.
The Panthers have a new attitude under Dave Wannstedt, and the results are finally showing on the field. Taking out a painful and embarrassing opener loss to Bowling Green, Pittsburgh is well on the way to capitalizing on the momentum of the huge WVU upset in 2007. A key to this reversion to glory has been a strong and opportunistic defense. If Rodgers does not play, Pittsburgh will likely eat the Beaver offense alive.
When Pittsburgh has the ball...
RB LeSean McCoy held the freshman rushing title last season, and he improved this year to help lead his team to doubling their win total from 2007. Pittsburgh's quarterback Bill Stull has done about as well as Moevao from OSU. Pitt can still be inconsistent on offense, but they are a much more cohesive unit than last year.
Oregon State does not boast a great defense, and they were rolled over for 400 yards rushing by the Oregon Ducks in the finale. With McCoy on a real roll entering this game, the Panther offense will try to continue this trend. Watch for the Beaver defense to make a clutch turnover or two though.
Star watch...
In this game, we'll go with both young running backs, Jacquizz Rodgers and LeSean McCoy. Rodgers would be the pick, but he may be ineffective coming off his injury, in which case McCoy is the star. McCoy will be a pro star someday, so watch his downhill rushing, very similar to a Beanie Wells type back for those who watch national Heisman candidates.
Deciding factor...
There's no question about it, the deciding factor is whether Rodgers plays and whether he plays well. If he is ineffective, the Pittsburgh defense will be very well prepared to stop the hampered Beaver offense. If Rodgers is present, watch for a fast and close game.
Saturday, December 20, 2008
2008 Bowl Preview Part II
This year, the college football bowl season kicks off with a bang: four games in one Saturday to open up the postseason play in style. However, it is the next four games on the 2008-2009 bowl schedule that include some of the best pre-January matchups you will find, right in time for the Christmas holidays. Indeed, the crown jewel of the non-BCS postseason schedule is here in the early bowl season, so let's jump right in to the storylines as SCS.com previews part two of the '08-'09 bowl campaign!
New Orleans | Poinsettia | Hawaii | Motor City
NEW ORLEANS BOWL - Southern Miss vs Troy
December 21 - 7:15 PM CST ESPN TV - New Orleans, LA
The matchup...
Southern Mississippi comes into this game on a four-game winning streak which surprised everyone and got the Golden Eagles back to bowl eligibility at 6-6. Considering one of those games was against September darling East Carolina 21-3, Troy will not be lulled into a sense of sleep by this opponent.
On the other hand, this game does look like quite the mismatch with this Troy Trojan team, who is 8-4 but lost to LSU, Oklahoma State, and Ohio State on the road. If not for absolute collapses, Troy would be 10-2 and riding a nine game winning streak. Troy is also a conference champion, which shows they do not overlook the small guys like Soutern Miss.
When Southern Miss has the ball...
Southern Miss had a very respectable offense in coach Larry Fedora's first season. The Trojans will have multiple weapons to worry about, including freshman QB Austin Davis and freshman WR DeAndre Brown. This young dynamic duo connected on about 6 receptions and one touchdown per game.
Troy's defense is very stout though. Outside the LSU collapse, Troy has really shut down many different offensive styles and looks in the past month. Having seen phenom talent like Terrelle Pryor and Dez Bryant should have the Trojans prepared for Davis and Brown. Look for the Trojan defense to really make or break this game.
When Troy has the ball...
As good as the Golden Eagle offense is, the Trojans may have an even better offensive unit. The key problem to defending Troy is the unpredictability of the looks they can give you. RB DeJuan Harris can play the power game, while WR Jerrel Jernigan has thrown the ball on quite a few gimmickly plays this season. You know an offense is good when a starting quarterback (Jamie Hampton) is lost in the middle of the season and the team doesn't miss a beat.
The key to Southern Mississippi's late season resurgence was a new philosophy on defense, one that brings a fair amount of pressure and takes a lot of risks. This strategy paid off with the load of seniors the Eagles have in the backfield. Nevertheless, it has been a long time since Southern Miss played an offense this talented and varied.
Star watch...
The star of this game was not even a starter in early October, but Troy QB Levi Brown has made quite the mark in the latter half of his junior season. Throwing for nearly 1800 yards and 14 touchdowns is a decent season, but incredible when considering it happened in six games. Brown will throw the occassional interception, but he has enough saavy to not put himself in too many bad situations.
Deciding factor...
Despite their experience, the Southern Mississippi defense just cannot compare to the Troy offense. While Southern Miss will likely struggle to put up points, expect there to not be as many problems the other direction. Both teams come in with momentum defensively, but there is still a key difference in these defenses that will change the game.
POINSETTIA BOWL - Boise State vs TCU
December 23 - 7:00 PM CST ESPN TV - San Diego, CA
The matchup...
While some may criticize the New Orleans Bowl for not having a fantastic matchup, there's nobody in the country that should say the same about the Poinsettia Bowl. Quite simply, this game matches the best two teams left out of the BCS mix from non-BCS conferences. TCU lost two understandable games to Oklahoma and Utah, while Boise State went undefeated again.
As a matter of fact, Boise State probably deserved a BCS bowl at-large given their history. Nevertheless, a dream matchup against Utah would not be all that different from what we have with TCU. If you must limit yourself to one pre-Christmas game, this has to be the choice.
When Boise State has the ball...
The Broncos were efficient as usual this season, putting up nearly 40 points per game. Yes, Ian Johnson is still racking up yards for BSU, but he now has a running mate in sophomore Jeremy Avery who can carry the load. The key will be the offensive line giving freshman QB Kellen Moore time to operate.
The Broncos will need to bring their trick plays though, as TCU boasts the best rushing defense in the country and perhaps the best defense outside of the USC Trojans. DE Jerry Hughes leads the country in sacks and leads the strong defensive front for the Horned Frogs. Only time will tell if the Boise State O-line can handle this high caliber unit.
When TCU has the ball...
The Horned Frog offense has been good, but the primary problem is inconsistency. Of course when your defense never gives up more than 14 points, one questions the need for consistency. Still, this game could be left in the hands of QB Andy Dalton, and his history seems to indicate he will shrink from the spotlight in big games. This is a trend that will need to break if the TCU offense hopes to break the game open against the tricky Broncos.
The Bronco defense statistically looks nearly as good as TCU, but nobody would mistake the real life Broncos for the Horned Frogs or Trojans. The primary problem for coach Chris Petersen (other than fending off job offers) is getting his primarily youthful defense to grow from the regular season and carry some intensity over to the bowl game. Bowl games this big can be distracting, even for a program used to BCS appearances in the recent past.
Star watch...
In a game with some inconsistent units, the one constant has been TCU's great defense. As mentioned previously, Jerry Hughes leads the nation in sacks and he does it by completely dominating double teams. Even when Hughes does not get to the ball, he still opens up holes for other defenders. He also happens to be the best pro prospect in this game, if you are interested in next-level players.
Deciding factor...
The TCU defense and the Boise State offense are proven, so most likely it will be the other units that decide the game. TCU missed a couple of field goals against Utah that cost them the game, but thankfully this game may not be close if the Horned Frog offense starts rolling early. Furthermore, Boise State has not played in a really close game outside of the Nevada game, so their inexperience will doom them even if it is close. TCU has all the intangibles needed to win a game like this.
HAWAII BOWL - Hawaii vs Notre Dame
December 24 - 7:00 PM CST ESPN TV - Honolulu, HI
The matchup...
A year after the Hawaii Bowl lost their mainstay and home team Warriors to the BCS, the boys are back for their usual home bowl game in 2008. This year will be special though for more reasons that the Warriors, as Notre Dame makes a trip to the islands for the first time in decades. More compelling storylines than usual out west this year.
This would seem to be the right kind of matchup for Notre Dame to end that horrific 18 year bowl drought, but then again, Hawaii plays a whole lot different and better at home. Plus, Hawaii finished second in the conference after a rough opening stretch, so the Warriors are on much more of a roll than the stumbling Fighting Irish.
When Hawaii has the ball...
The Warriors are very weak running the ball, which is good news for Notre Dame. However, Hawaii has enough talent to be relatively one-dimensional by spreading your defensive backfield out and letting the quarterback make the right decisions. While there may be no Colt Brennan, Greg Alexander has been solid this season in the Warrior pass-happy attack.
In this matchup, Hawaii may still look to run despite their lack of success to date. Notre Dame is abysmal against the run, and a lot of these problems stem from the defensive line. A unit that should be jelling and pushing back on offensive lines just looks inexperienced and unsure. When you cannot keep Syracuse off the ball, there's a serious problem. Look for Hawaii to be more diverse than usual.
When Notre Dame has the ball...
Again with Charlie Weis, the talent is there. He just has to find a way to use it well. QB Jimmy Clausen sturggled down the stretch and throws a lot of interceptions. Despite these issues, a healthy WR Michael Floyd's return should pay big dividends for the passing game.
The other good news for Irish fans: Hawaii struggles sometime more than Notre Dame defensively. The passing lanes will be open, even if Hawaii brings pressure. Notre Dame has not gotten a lot of success running the ball, so expect another arial assault in Hawaii.
Star watch...
The time is now for Jimmy Clausen. The Notre Dame quarterback was heralded as the next big thing following Brady Quinn, but the team has struggled under his leadership in the first two years. Notre Dame really wants to break the bowl loss streak, but only Clausen will have the game essentially in his own hands.
Deciding factor...
How high the scoreboard gets. If Hawaii puts a lot of points on the board (say, more than 30), there's no way Notre Dame will keep up. The key will be Notre Dame's defense holding Hawaii to a couple scores, giving their own offense time to win the game.
MOTOR CITY BOWL - Florida Atlantic vs Central Michigan
December 26 - 7:00 PM CST ESPN TV - Detroit, MI
The matchup...
There's no use lying to you readers. If you tune in for this game, you will probably tune in for the other three above for sure. The Motor City bowl had a chance to steal a Ball State-Boise State matchup with the Big Ten not providing a team, but negotiations fell through and Ball State lost anyways.
So instead of that blockbuster, Detroit fans will welcome back Central Michigan again, this time to play Florida Atlantic. FAU won their first ever bowl game last season, and the Owls are hot coming into this contest. Furthermore, both teams light up the scoreboard. On second thought, a lot of people might tune in to this contest if they are saavy and like points!
When Florida Atlantic has the ball...
Florida Atlantic had some trouble keeping up with opposing offenses earlier in the season, but QB Rusty Smith got the ball rolling well in his third season of action. RB Charles Pierre leads a stable of good running backs, but the Owls move the ball primarily with the passing game.
Central Michigan had some trouble stopping any kind of offense this season, routinely giving up 28 or more points. Lowly Eastern Michigan had their way with the Chippewa defense, so expect Central Michigan to adjust with the four weeks of practice leading up to this game. The home crowd will help keep the defense pumped up as well.
When Central Michigan has the ball...
QB Dan LeFevour has helped lead Central Michigan to a third straight Motor City Bowl, and his familiarity with the setting can only help in a game like this. LeFevour is a dual-threat and forces defenses to spy on him or pay the consequences. WR Antonio Brown will have a real chance to step up in the spotlight this game after a terrific season.
The best news of all for the Chippewas might be the defense they are facing. Legendary coach Howard Schnellenberger has the prgram headed in the right direction, but his defense lacks real good talent or experience. Giving up 50 points in their finale against Florida International sends up just as many red flags as the CMU-EMU game. Look for a wide-open shootout.
Star watch...
QB Dan LeFevour has certainly not hit his lofty statistics of he past two seasons, but he developed from a pocket passer into a dual-threat this season. That makes it a lot harder to stop the Chippewa offense, and it also keeps him in the spotlight all the time. Thus, LeFevour is the star to watch this game.
Deciding factor...
It all comes down to which defense wants to show up enough to get a couple of stops. That will literally be enough in a game that may end up like the 2007 showdown between CMU and Purdue (Boilers won 51-48). Florida Atlantic finished strong, but Central Michigan has too many experienced veterans who know how to handle these shootouts. CMU's defense makes the difference in this one.
New Orleans | Poinsettia | Hawaii | Motor City
NEW ORLEANS BOWL - Southern Miss vs Troy
December 21 - 7:15 PM CST ESPN TV - New Orleans, LA
The matchup...
Southern Mississippi comes into this game on a four-game winning streak which surprised everyone and got the Golden Eagles back to bowl eligibility at 6-6. Considering one of those games was against September darling East Carolina 21-3, Troy will not be lulled into a sense of sleep by this opponent.
On the other hand, this game does look like quite the mismatch with this Troy Trojan team, who is 8-4 but lost to LSU, Oklahoma State, and Ohio State on the road. If not for absolute collapses, Troy would be 10-2 and riding a nine game winning streak. Troy is also a conference champion, which shows they do not overlook the small guys like Soutern Miss.
When Southern Miss has the ball...
Southern Miss had a very respectable offense in coach Larry Fedora's first season. The Trojans will have multiple weapons to worry about, including freshman QB Austin Davis and freshman WR DeAndre Brown. This young dynamic duo connected on about 6 receptions and one touchdown per game.
Troy's defense is very stout though. Outside the LSU collapse, Troy has really shut down many different offensive styles and looks in the past month. Having seen phenom talent like Terrelle Pryor and Dez Bryant should have the Trojans prepared for Davis and Brown. Look for the Trojan defense to really make or break this game.
When Troy has the ball...
As good as the Golden Eagle offense is, the Trojans may have an even better offensive unit. The key problem to defending Troy is the unpredictability of the looks they can give you. RB DeJuan Harris can play the power game, while WR Jerrel Jernigan has thrown the ball on quite a few gimmickly plays this season. You know an offense is good when a starting quarterback (Jamie Hampton) is lost in the middle of the season and the team doesn't miss a beat.
The key to Southern Mississippi's late season resurgence was a new philosophy on defense, one that brings a fair amount of pressure and takes a lot of risks. This strategy paid off with the load of seniors the Eagles have in the backfield. Nevertheless, it has been a long time since Southern Miss played an offense this talented and varied.
Star watch...
The star of this game was not even a starter in early October, but Troy QB Levi Brown has made quite the mark in the latter half of his junior season. Throwing for nearly 1800 yards and 14 touchdowns is a decent season, but incredible when considering it happened in six games. Brown will throw the occassional interception, but he has enough saavy to not put himself in too many bad situations.
Deciding factor...
Despite their experience, the Southern Mississippi defense just cannot compare to the Troy offense. While Southern Miss will likely struggle to put up points, expect there to not be as many problems the other direction. Both teams come in with momentum defensively, but there is still a key difference in these defenses that will change the game.
POINSETTIA BOWL - Boise State vs TCU
December 23 - 7:00 PM CST ESPN TV - San Diego, CA
The matchup...
While some may criticize the New Orleans Bowl for not having a fantastic matchup, there's nobody in the country that should say the same about the Poinsettia Bowl. Quite simply, this game matches the best two teams left out of the BCS mix from non-BCS conferences. TCU lost two understandable games to Oklahoma and Utah, while Boise State went undefeated again.
As a matter of fact, Boise State probably deserved a BCS bowl at-large given their history. Nevertheless, a dream matchup against Utah would not be all that different from what we have with TCU. If you must limit yourself to one pre-Christmas game, this has to be the choice.
When Boise State has the ball...
The Broncos were efficient as usual this season, putting up nearly 40 points per game. Yes, Ian Johnson is still racking up yards for BSU, but he now has a running mate in sophomore Jeremy Avery who can carry the load. The key will be the offensive line giving freshman QB Kellen Moore time to operate.
The Broncos will need to bring their trick plays though, as TCU boasts the best rushing defense in the country and perhaps the best defense outside of the USC Trojans. DE Jerry Hughes leads the country in sacks and leads the strong defensive front for the Horned Frogs. Only time will tell if the Boise State O-line can handle this high caliber unit.
When TCU has the ball...
The Horned Frog offense has been good, but the primary problem is inconsistency. Of course when your defense never gives up more than 14 points, one questions the need for consistency. Still, this game could be left in the hands of QB Andy Dalton, and his history seems to indicate he will shrink from the spotlight in big games. This is a trend that will need to break if the TCU offense hopes to break the game open against the tricky Broncos.
The Bronco defense statistically looks nearly as good as TCU, but nobody would mistake the real life Broncos for the Horned Frogs or Trojans. The primary problem for coach Chris Petersen (other than fending off job offers) is getting his primarily youthful defense to grow from the regular season and carry some intensity over to the bowl game. Bowl games this big can be distracting, even for a program used to BCS appearances in the recent past.
Star watch...
In a game with some inconsistent units, the one constant has been TCU's great defense. As mentioned previously, Jerry Hughes leads the nation in sacks and he does it by completely dominating double teams. Even when Hughes does not get to the ball, he still opens up holes for other defenders. He also happens to be the best pro prospect in this game, if you are interested in next-level players.
Deciding factor...
The TCU defense and the Boise State offense are proven, so most likely it will be the other units that decide the game. TCU missed a couple of field goals against Utah that cost them the game, but thankfully this game may not be close if the Horned Frog offense starts rolling early. Furthermore, Boise State has not played in a really close game outside of the Nevada game, so their inexperience will doom them even if it is close. TCU has all the intangibles needed to win a game like this.
HAWAII BOWL - Hawaii vs Notre Dame
December 24 - 7:00 PM CST ESPN TV - Honolulu, HI
The matchup...
A year after the Hawaii Bowl lost their mainstay and home team Warriors to the BCS, the boys are back for their usual home bowl game in 2008. This year will be special though for more reasons that the Warriors, as Notre Dame makes a trip to the islands for the first time in decades. More compelling storylines than usual out west this year.
This would seem to be the right kind of matchup for Notre Dame to end that horrific 18 year bowl drought, but then again, Hawaii plays a whole lot different and better at home. Plus, Hawaii finished second in the conference after a rough opening stretch, so the Warriors are on much more of a roll than the stumbling Fighting Irish.
When Hawaii has the ball...
The Warriors are very weak running the ball, which is good news for Notre Dame. However, Hawaii has enough talent to be relatively one-dimensional by spreading your defensive backfield out and letting the quarterback make the right decisions. While there may be no Colt Brennan, Greg Alexander has been solid this season in the Warrior pass-happy attack.
In this matchup, Hawaii may still look to run despite their lack of success to date. Notre Dame is abysmal against the run, and a lot of these problems stem from the defensive line. A unit that should be jelling and pushing back on offensive lines just looks inexperienced and unsure. When you cannot keep Syracuse off the ball, there's a serious problem. Look for Hawaii to be more diverse than usual.
When Notre Dame has the ball...
Again with Charlie Weis, the talent is there. He just has to find a way to use it well. QB Jimmy Clausen sturggled down the stretch and throws a lot of interceptions. Despite these issues, a healthy WR Michael Floyd's return should pay big dividends for the passing game.
The other good news for Irish fans: Hawaii struggles sometime more than Notre Dame defensively. The passing lanes will be open, even if Hawaii brings pressure. Notre Dame has not gotten a lot of success running the ball, so expect another arial assault in Hawaii.
Star watch...
The time is now for Jimmy Clausen. The Notre Dame quarterback was heralded as the next big thing following Brady Quinn, but the team has struggled under his leadership in the first two years. Notre Dame really wants to break the bowl loss streak, but only Clausen will have the game essentially in his own hands.
Deciding factor...
How high the scoreboard gets. If Hawaii puts a lot of points on the board (say, more than 30), there's no way Notre Dame will keep up. The key will be Notre Dame's defense holding Hawaii to a couple scores, giving their own offense time to win the game.
MOTOR CITY BOWL - Florida Atlantic vs Central Michigan
December 26 - 7:00 PM CST ESPN TV - Detroit, MI
The matchup...
There's no use lying to you readers. If you tune in for this game, you will probably tune in for the other three above for sure. The Motor City bowl had a chance to steal a Ball State-Boise State matchup with the Big Ten not providing a team, but negotiations fell through and Ball State lost anyways.
So instead of that blockbuster, Detroit fans will welcome back Central Michigan again, this time to play Florida Atlantic. FAU won their first ever bowl game last season, and the Owls are hot coming into this contest. Furthermore, both teams light up the scoreboard. On second thought, a lot of people might tune in to this contest if they are saavy and like points!
When Florida Atlantic has the ball...
Florida Atlantic had some trouble keeping up with opposing offenses earlier in the season, but QB Rusty Smith got the ball rolling well in his third season of action. RB Charles Pierre leads a stable of good running backs, but the Owls move the ball primarily with the passing game.
Central Michigan had some trouble stopping any kind of offense this season, routinely giving up 28 or more points. Lowly Eastern Michigan had their way with the Chippewa defense, so expect Central Michigan to adjust with the four weeks of practice leading up to this game. The home crowd will help keep the defense pumped up as well.
When Central Michigan has the ball...
QB Dan LeFevour has helped lead Central Michigan to a third straight Motor City Bowl, and his familiarity with the setting can only help in a game like this. LeFevour is a dual-threat and forces defenses to spy on him or pay the consequences. WR Antonio Brown will have a real chance to step up in the spotlight this game after a terrific season.
The best news of all for the Chippewas might be the defense they are facing. Legendary coach Howard Schnellenberger has the prgram headed in the right direction, but his defense lacks real good talent or experience. Giving up 50 points in their finale against Florida International sends up just as many red flags as the CMU-EMU game. Look for a wide-open shootout.
Star watch...
QB Dan LeFevour has certainly not hit his lofty statistics of he past two seasons, but he developed from a pocket passer into a dual-threat this season. That makes it a lot harder to stop the Chippewa offense, and it also keeps him in the spotlight all the time. Thus, LeFevour is the star to watch this game.
Deciding factor...
It all comes down to which defense wants to show up enough to get a couple of stops. That will literally be enough in a game that may end up like the 2007 showdown between CMU and Purdue (Boilers won 51-48). Florida Atlantic finished strong, but Central Michigan has too many experienced veterans who know how to handle these shootouts. CMU's defense makes the difference in this one.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Championship Week 2008: A.K.A. BCS Semifinals
It's been a long road from the end of August to the beginning of December, but here we stand on the cusp of another bowl season. This is the final regular week of articles from the SCS staff and the last chance to make those moves in your pickem pool before we all try to prove how well we know the bowls. Essentially those who beg for a playoff have their semifinals this week, and nobody would be complaining about the BCS if Oklahoma and Texas could rematch in the Big XII Championship. As it is, Missouri will play proxy for Texas and the other top 3 teams will battle it out this weekend to move one step closer to crystal football. Before we turn our attention to the upcoming limited slate of games and bowl season, let's look back at 2008 and discuss the major awards coming up as well as the conference surprises/disappointments.
ACC - This league featured the craziest and most competitive set of overall teams, as 10 of the league's 12 teams finished 5-3 or 4-4 in conference. Nobody could say Virginia at 3-5 or Duke at 1-7 in coach Cutliffe's first season were all that disappointing either. Surprise of the year goes to Boston College, who looked to be out of the conference race while breaking in new starters all over the field, including at QB and RB. Still, the Eagles are back for a second-straight ACC Championship. Most disappointing was Clemson, who took the most talented team in the league and barely scraped out bowl eligibility. Player of the year will go to Georgia Tech RB Jonathan Dwyer, who led an outstanding rushing attack in the new-look Yellowjacket offense. Coach of the yeat honors go to Florida State's Bobby Bowden, who came awfully close to another BCS berth when most counted him out for good.
BIG XII - Yet again, the conference turned into a tale of two divisions. It was the best of times (in the south), it was the worst of times (in the north), etc. Oklahoma may not deserve to be in the Big XII Championship, but rules are rules and it was a three-way tie no matter how unworthy fans think Texas Tech is. Surprise of the year is clearly the Red Raiders, who exceeded all expectations at 11-1 and are sadly going to be left out of a deserving BCS bowl. Disappointment of the year goes to Kansas State, who appeared poised to get back in the bowl mix with a 4-2 start but lost five in a row and lost their coach along the way. Player of the year is a tough choice, but Texas QB Colt McCoy has overcome the sophomore blues to become a dual-threat nightmare with 42 total touchdowns. Coach of the year is Mike Leach of Texas Tech.
BIG EAST - This conference seems to grow a new identity every year, and we'll call 2008 the year of the Bearcat. Not Bobcat Mr. Obama, Bearcat. Surprise of the year is your conference champion Cincinnati. A program on the ropes 3 years ago has truly benefited from great coaching and the jump to a BCS conference, and now will share the BCS spotlight in January. Disappointment of the year seemed locked up by Rutgers, but a furious finish gives the dishonor to Louisville who will finish dead last in the conference. Player of the year is awarded to West Virginia QB Pat White, who proved he is still amazing even without the support of a good offensive line or a star running back (though Noel Devine will be great soon). Coach of the year goes to Brian Kelly for dealing with the quarterback carousel and surviving.
BIG TEN - The league that has received an at-large bid to the BCS an outstanding seven times in ten seasons appears poised to do so again after Oregon opened the door for Ohio State to win the debate over Boise State. Surprise of the year is conference co-champion Penn State, picked to finish in the middle of the pack before showing off a new HD Spread offense and a dominating defense. Disappointment of the year is Illinois, who took two steps back to no bowl game after getting a surprising Rose Bowl berth in 2007. Player of the year is RB Shonn Greene from Iowa, who rushed for over 100 yards every single game and etched himself as a first-round draft pick this year. Coach of the year is Mark Dantonio of Michigan State. While winning the games you are supposed to is not flashy, it does give you NEw Year's Day bowl bids and opportunities at BCS bowls. Given a 20 year Rose Bowl drought, it's good to have MSU competitive again.
NON-BCS - Yeah these get lumped together, much like the BCS lumps all these teams together into one 50 team conference with no more than 1 bid to the big dance. Surprise of the year was Ball State, who took over a MAC recently dominated by directional Michigan schools. Disappointment of the year was East Carolina, who started with promising wins and will stumble to a likely 5 loss finish. Player of the year is Tulsa QB David Johnson, who went from backup to main man his senior season and led Tulsa back to another C-USA title game. Coach of the year is Kyle Wittingham of Utah, a school with BCS history that will be going back trying to make another statement.
PAC-10 - Surprise, surprise...look who's ascended to the outright conference title, their 7th title in a row. While there are some great programs in college football, USC is the best of the decade and proved it against the only other team with an argument in September. The Rose Bowl should actually be good this year, so pay attention! Surprise of the year is Oregon State, who has no reason to hang their heads after coming within one Civil War of the BCS. The Beavers did more with less than any other team in the conference. Disappointment of the year is shared by Washington and Washington State, as there's never been more terrible play from that state. Player of the year is RB Jacquizz Rodgers from Oregon State, who was probably the main reason the Ducks won on Saturday and sent USC to the Rose. Coach of the Year again goes to Pete Carroll at USC. The Trojans just keep reloading and fear nobody, which bodes well for future seasons.
SEC - Do you realize LSU and Tennessee are tied in league standings? In a down year for the SEC, weird things like that have happened. Still, the conference will play for a third-straight national title. Surprise of the year is no question: Alabama. The undefeated Tide roll into the SEC Championship despite being completely off the radar in August. Disappointment of the year is LSU, who apparently lost the will to win after the Alabama game. Not too many national champions look that bad. Player of the year is QB Tim Tebow of Florida, who may not have the stats to win the Heisman, but he is the MVP of the best team in the league. Coach of the year is Nick Saban, who overcame a ridiculously tough conference to rise to the cream of the crop again.
A couple interesting notes regarding Boise State came in this week as they polished off a 12-0 season. Despite their BCS Bowl prowess, the Broncos will likely be left out in favor of 10-2 Ohio State. The Fiesta Bowl could put together a dream Utah-Boise State matchup, but the allure of grabbing Texas or Oklahoma in this season is too great to set up such a matchup, at which point Ohio State becomes the better money-making choice. Assuming BSU is out of the BCS, the MAC and WAC are negotiating hard with their top tier bowl games to get Boise State and Ball State on the field to play in a battle of undefeateds. Most likely if it happens is the Motor City Bowl, who would have Ball State already and an open slot left by the Big Ten if OSU is the BCS pick. This would be a huge win for both conferences and both conference champions, so I hope the politics can be worked out and the revenue shared so that we have a non-BCS Championship of sorts. Speaking of the BCS...
FINAL BCS BOWL PROJECTIONS
BCS Championship - Oklahoma vs. Florida
Fiesta - Texas vs. Utah
Sugar - Alabama vs. Ohio State
Orange - Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Rose - Penn State vs. USC
The third best game of the week is a repeat show of last year's ACC Championship. For the record, Boston College could not win that game. The conference with a bunch of above-average teams is playing for the right to play Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl, a winnable matchup by anyone's sense of the imagination. This matchup is all about defense, as these two boast top-10 ranked defenses. Boston College is especially rough on the running game, which will mean Hokies QB Tyrod Taylor will have to step up once again for the Hokies to repeat. Boston College QB Chris Crane is prone to mistakes and interceptions, so look for the opportunistic Virginia Tech defense to grab a couple key turnovers. Virginia Tech may have less talent, but they are better in special teams and have a better field general at quarterback. Hokies repeat with a 10 point win.
The second game of the week is the Big XII Championship, another rematch from last year as Oklahoma plays Missouri. Unlike last season, both teams needed tiebreakers to be here this season. While Missouri QB Chase Daniel has faded from Heisman contention this season after being a finalist last year, he is just as impressive athletically as the Heisman frontrunner he'll be facing, Sam Bradford. Missouri could stay close if their defense gets 3-4 stops on Oklahoma, as the Sooner defense is nothing to shout about. Unfortunately, the Tigers are a little dinged up at this point in the season and it showed in last week's loss to Kansas. Missouri will likely welcome a peaceful trip to San Antonio after this one, OU by 27.
The top game of the week is the play-in game or semifinal BCS game, the SEC Championship between Florida and Alabama. The key factor to this game may be Florida wideout Percy Harvin's ankle sprain, as losing the number one receiver against the strong Tide defense is a recipe for disaster. Don't believe me, look at the 2006 BCS Championship which Florida won handily when top OSU receiver Ted Ginn Jr. left the game in the first quarter. Florida has a lot of veterans who have been ther and done that, and it has been impressive the run of 7 wins they put together post-Mississippi shocker. Still, Alabama just seems to find a way to win games and may have that magic that propelled other unlikely teams to national titles. While I think Alabama should shut down the high-octane Gators, there will be a trick play that decides the game. Urban Meyer is better than Nick Saban at those, so Florida wins by 1.
2008 GOTW Record: 22-20
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 - Week 14
1. Alabama (12-0)
2. Florida (11-1)
3. Texas (11-1)
4. Oklahoma (11-1)
5. Utah (12-0)
6. Boise State (12-0)
7. USC (10-1)
8. Penn State (11-1)
9. Texas Tech (11-1)
10. Ohio State (10-2)
Just Missed: Ball State, Cincinnati, TCU, Michigan State, Oregon
And with that, I bid adieu to my regular readers this season. Thanks for reading every week or occassionally, and don't forget to drop by and check out our SCS Bowl previews throughout bowl season. As always, please send email feedback to the email linked above, as I love hearing from you. Have a great holiday season and we'll see you back when this column returns in August 2009.
ACC - This league featured the craziest and most competitive set of overall teams, as 10 of the league's 12 teams finished 5-3 or 4-4 in conference. Nobody could say Virginia at 3-5 or Duke at 1-7 in coach Cutliffe's first season were all that disappointing either. Surprise of the year goes to Boston College, who looked to be out of the conference race while breaking in new starters all over the field, including at QB and RB. Still, the Eagles are back for a second-straight ACC Championship. Most disappointing was Clemson, who took the most talented team in the league and barely scraped out bowl eligibility. Player of the year will go to Georgia Tech RB Jonathan Dwyer, who led an outstanding rushing attack in the new-look Yellowjacket offense. Coach of the yeat honors go to Florida State's Bobby Bowden, who came awfully close to another BCS berth when most counted him out for good.
BIG XII - Yet again, the conference turned into a tale of two divisions. It was the best of times (in the south), it was the worst of times (in the north), etc. Oklahoma may not deserve to be in the Big XII Championship, but rules are rules and it was a three-way tie no matter how unworthy fans think Texas Tech is. Surprise of the year is clearly the Red Raiders, who exceeded all expectations at 11-1 and are sadly going to be left out of a deserving BCS bowl. Disappointment of the year goes to Kansas State, who appeared poised to get back in the bowl mix with a 4-2 start but lost five in a row and lost their coach along the way. Player of the year is a tough choice, but Texas QB Colt McCoy has overcome the sophomore blues to become a dual-threat nightmare with 42 total touchdowns. Coach of the year is Mike Leach of Texas Tech.
BIG EAST - This conference seems to grow a new identity every year, and we'll call 2008 the year of the Bearcat. Not Bobcat Mr. Obama, Bearcat. Surprise of the year is your conference champion Cincinnati. A program on the ropes 3 years ago has truly benefited from great coaching and the jump to a BCS conference, and now will share the BCS spotlight in January. Disappointment of the year seemed locked up by Rutgers, but a furious finish gives the dishonor to Louisville who will finish dead last in the conference. Player of the year is awarded to West Virginia QB Pat White, who proved he is still amazing even without the support of a good offensive line or a star running back (though Noel Devine will be great soon). Coach of the year goes to Brian Kelly for dealing with the quarterback carousel and surviving.
BIG TEN - The league that has received an at-large bid to the BCS an outstanding seven times in ten seasons appears poised to do so again after Oregon opened the door for Ohio State to win the debate over Boise State. Surprise of the year is conference co-champion Penn State, picked to finish in the middle of the pack before showing off a new HD Spread offense and a dominating defense. Disappointment of the year is Illinois, who took two steps back to no bowl game after getting a surprising Rose Bowl berth in 2007. Player of the year is RB Shonn Greene from Iowa, who rushed for over 100 yards every single game and etched himself as a first-round draft pick this year. Coach of the year is Mark Dantonio of Michigan State. While winning the games you are supposed to is not flashy, it does give you NEw Year's Day bowl bids and opportunities at BCS bowls. Given a 20 year Rose Bowl drought, it's good to have MSU competitive again.
NON-BCS - Yeah these get lumped together, much like the BCS lumps all these teams together into one 50 team conference with no more than 1 bid to the big dance. Surprise of the year was Ball State, who took over a MAC recently dominated by directional Michigan schools. Disappointment of the year was East Carolina, who started with promising wins and will stumble to a likely 5 loss finish. Player of the year is Tulsa QB David Johnson, who went from backup to main man his senior season and led Tulsa back to another C-USA title game. Coach of the year is Kyle Wittingham of Utah, a school with BCS history that will be going back trying to make another statement.
PAC-10 - Surprise, surprise...look who's ascended to the outright conference title, their 7th title in a row. While there are some great programs in college football, USC is the best of the decade and proved it against the only other team with an argument in September. The Rose Bowl should actually be good this year, so pay attention! Surprise of the year is Oregon State, who has no reason to hang their heads after coming within one Civil War of the BCS. The Beavers did more with less than any other team in the conference. Disappointment of the year is shared by Washington and Washington State, as there's never been more terrible play from that state. Player of the year is RB Jacquizz Rodgers from Oregon State, who was probably the main reason the Ducks won on Saturday and sent USC to the Rose. Coach of the Year again goes to Pete Carroll at USC. The Trojans just keep reloading and fear nobody, which bodes well for future seasons.
SEC - Do you realize LSU and Tennessee are tied in league standings? In a down year for the SEC, weird things like that have happened. Still, the conference will play for a third-straight national title. Surprise of the year is no question: Alabama. The undefeated Tide roll into the SEC Championship despite being completely off the radar in August. Disappointment of the year is LSU, who apparently lost the will to win after the Alabama game. Not too many national champions look that bad. Player of the year is QB Tim Tebow of Florida, who may not have the stats to win the Heisman, but he is the MVP of the best team in the league. Coach of the year is Nick Saban, who overcame a ridiculously tough conference to rise to the cream of the crop again.
A couple interesting notes regarding Boise State came in this week as they polished off a 12-0 season. Despite their BCS Bowl prowess, the Broncos will likely be left out in favor of 10-2 Ohio State. The Fiesta Bowl could put together a dream Utah-Boise State matchup, but the allure of grabbing Texas or Oklahoma in this season is too great to set up such a matchup, at which point Ohio State becomes the better money-making choice. Assuming BSU is out of the BCS, the MAC and WAC are negotiating hard with their top tier bowl games to get Boise State and Ball State on the field to play in a battle of undefeateds. Most likely if it happens is the Motor City Bowl, who would have Ball State already and an open slot left by the Big Ten if OSU is the BCS pick. This would be a huge win for both conferences and both conference champions, so I hope the politics can be worked out and the revenue shared so that we have a non-BCS Championship of sorts. Speaking of the BCS...
FINAL BCS BOWL PROJECTIONS
BCS Championship - Oklahoma vs. Florida
Fiesta - Texas vs. Utah
Sugar - Alabama vs. Ohio State
Orange - Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Rose - Penn State vs. USC
The third best game of the week is a repeat show of last year's ACC Championship. For the record, Boston College could not win that game. The conference with a bunch of above-average teams is playing for the right to play Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl, a winnable matchup by anyone's sense of the imagination. This matchup is all about defense, as these two boast top-10 ranked defenses. Boston College is especially rough on the running game, which will mean Hokies QB Tyrod Taylor will have to step up once again for the Hokies to repeat. Boston College QB Chris Crane is prone to mistakes and interceptions, so look for the opportunistic Virginia Tech defense to grab a couple key turnovers. Virginia Tech may have less talent, but they are better in special teams and have a better field general at quarterback. Hokies repeat with a 10 point win.
The second game of the week is the Big XII Championship, another rematch from last year as Oklahoma plays Missouri. Unlike last season, both teams needed tiebreakers to be here this season. While Missouri QB Chase Daniel has faded from Heisman contention this season after being a finalist last year, he is just as impressive athletically as the Heisman frontrunner he'll be facing, Sam Bradford. Missouri could stay close if their defense gets 3-4 stops on Oklahoma, as the Sooner defense is nothing to shout about. Unfortunately, the Tigers are a little dinged up at this point in the season and it showed in last week's loss to Kansas. Missouri will likely welcome a peaceful trip to San Antonio after this one, OU by 27.
The top game of the week is the play-in game or semifinal BCS game, the SEC Championship between Florida and Alabama. The key factor to this game may be Florida wideout Percy Harvin's ankle sprain, as losing the number one receiver against the strong Tide defense is a recipe for disaster. Don't believe me, look at the 2006 BCS Championship which Florida won handily when top OSU receiver Ted Ginn Jr. left the game in the first quarter. Florida has a lot of veterans who have been ther and done that, and it has been impressive the run of 7 wins they put together post-Mississippi shocker. Still, Alabama just seems to find a way to win games and may have that magic that propelled other unlikely teams to national titles. While I think Alabama should shut down the high-octane Gators, there will be a trick play that decides the game. Urban Meyer is better than Nick Saban at those, so Florida wins by 1.
2008 GOTW Record: 22-20
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 - Week 14
1. Alabama (12-0)
2. Florida (11-1)
3. Texas (11-1)
4. Oklahoma (11-1)
5. Utah (12-0)
6. Boise State (12-0)
7. USC (10-1)
8. Penn State (11-1)
9. Texas Tech (11-1)
10. Ohio State (10-2)
Just Missed: Ball State, Cincinnati, TCU, Michigan State, Oregon
And with that, I bid adieu to my regular readers this season. Thanks for reading every week or occassionally, and don't forget to drop by and check out our SCS Bowl previews throughout bowl season. As always, please send email feedback to the email linked above, as I love hearing from you. Have a great holiday season and we'll see you back when this column returns in August 2009.
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