"The Grandaddy of Them All" has the best BCS matchup of the season, and this game is a wonderful consolation prize to these two teams who had their eyes set on a showdown with the Buckeyes in Glendale. Any Pac-10/Big Ten pairing is welcome in the Rose Bowl for tradition's sake, but these two teams are a dream matchup. Both squads lost to Texas in the last two Rose Bowl games, so now this provides an opportunity to win the ultimate prize for these conferences. USC and Michigan hit the field on Monday in Pasadena!
ROSE BOWL - #6-Southern Cal vs #2-Michigan
January 1 - 4:00 PM CST ABC - Pasadena, CA
How they got here...
Michigan rolled over an overrated Notre Dame team in South Bend in September and never stopped winning after that until November 18. Judgment Day in Columbus was quite the showcase, and Michigan almost won their way into the BCS Title game even in a losing effort. USC won the Pac-10 title but finished with two surprising losses to Oregon State and UCLA in the process. The Trojans also had a win-and-get-in opportunity to make their way into the BCS Title game, but perhaps they got caught looking ahead for the first time in Pete Carroll's tenure at USC. There's almost no doubt these two teams are fighting for second place in college football if Ohio State wins the title.
The stars...
Both quarterbacks look like great veterans, although USC's John David Booty (2956 yards, 25 TD, 9 INT) did not start until this year while Michigan's Chad Henne (2199 yards, 20 TD, 7 INT) is in his third year of starting. Although it is hard to imagine Michigan's trio of wide receivers being outclassed, Mario Manningham, Steve Breaston, and Adrian Arrington look average when compared with USC's Steve Smith, Dwayne Jarrett, and Patrick Turner. Michigan does have an advantage in the running game, as Mike Hart does not make mistakes and gets better as games drag on. The stars continue on defense, but Michigan's DE Lamarr Woodley looked good in every game this year, including the offensive blowout in Columbus. There's much more star power here, but it would be hard to cover them all in this small section.
The unsung heroes...
For USC, the unsung heroes on offense are the emerging rushing duo of junior Chauncey Washington and freshman C.J. Gable. These guys have made a difference in how defenses must attack the Trojan offense, and that alone helps USC roll down the field. Southern Cal also has a great set of linebackers in Keith Rivers, Rey Maualuga, and Dallas Sartz who will become household names after this game, just like Hawk, Carpenter, and Schlegel last season at Ohio State. For the Wolverines, the unsung heroes come on the defense, where Lamarr Woodley has three other great talents to aid him in the front seven in LB Prescott Burgess, LB Dave Harris, and DT Alan Branch. These guys lead one of the best defenses in Michigan history, but the Wolverines will need to step up more than they did against the Buckeyes.
The coaches...
You really cannot ask for much more on the sidelines than the men these teams employ. Lloyd Carr is midway through a second decade in Ann Arbor, and he may be on the verge of leading the Wolverines to their second split national title this season. The only knock on Carr is that he has had trouble recently in bowl games and against Ohio State, but this Wolverine team is one to make even the late Bo Schembechler proud. Pete Carroll is probably the best coach in college football today (by a small bit over Jim Tressel and others), and the staff around him includes stars such as Norm Chow. USC has won five straight league titles and has been in the national title race each of the past five seasons. These two coaches are one great reason to tune in on New Year's Day.
The keys to the game...
[#1] The first key will be how both teams recover from losing their final regular season games and missing Glendale by narrow margins. This game could be decided in the first quarter if one team gets off on the wrong foot. Both teams must focus on the task and opportunity at hand.
[#2] The second key will be how quickly Mike Hart can establish himself and the Michigan running game. If Hart is breaking through to the second level of defenders in the first half, the Trojans will be in for a long second half. Hart cannot make a mistake either, as his consistency keeps the Wolverines close in tough games.
[#3] The third key will be if Michigan's great defense can stop USC's passing game. Michigan has only faced one other team with comparable offensive talent, and the Wolverine defense got burned for 500 yards of offense and 42 points. Michigan has a better defense on paper than USC and that should make the difference, but that's only if they can actually stop the Trojans.
The x-factor...
The x-factor will be special teams play. Michigan's Steve Breaston has not broken out a huge play this season returning kicks, but this could be the game to make the biggest difference of all. Both units have return guys who can break the big one, but I think Breaston's day will determine a lot of the outcome of this game (field position could be everything).
The staff says...
Ben David Eddie Ethan Gregg Jeff Jonathan Matt Matthew Reed
MICH MICH MICH MICH MICH MICH USC MICH MICH MICH
Saturday, December 30, 2006
Thursday, December 28, 2006
BOWL PREVIEW SERIES - PART VI
Before champagne toasts go into the sky and a New Year is christened worldwide, bringing the best day in college football, the final two days of 2006 have their own share of compelling games. Navy and Boston College showcase a clash of offensive styles in the Car Care Bowl, while the Alamo Bowl follows with a couple of underachieving midwest powerhouses as Texas plays Iowa. Virginia Tech and Georgia make for a great nightcap in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl before the final day of 2006 and the final bowl of 2006 pits Miami and Nevada on the blue turf at Boise. These bowls offer a little bit of everything to prepare you for the great slate of 2007 bowls.
Car Care Bowl | Alamo Bowl
Chick-fil-A Bowl | MPC Computers Bowl
CAR CARE BOWL - Navy vs Boston College
December 30 - 12:00 PM CST ESPN - Charlotte, NC
When Navy has the ball...
Expect the time of possession meter to continually favor the Midshipmen as the famous option rushing attack leads the nation in yards on the ground. Losing starting QB Brian Hampton in midseason was a huge disappointment, but Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku Enhada has filled in nicely. Enhada has plenty of speed to run the triple option attack, while physical fullback Adam Ballard (792 rushing yards, 3 TD) and explosive halfback Reggie Campbell (655 yards, 5 TD) are great alternatives to go to. Boston College has a great run defense and over a month to prepare for the option, so the key will be to see if Navy continues to be unstoppable on the ground.
When Boston College has the ball...
And now for something completely different, the Eagles offense is led by the passing attack of QB Matt Ryan (2700 yards, 14 TD, 8 INT). Ryan has two great wide receivers to throw to who can burn secondaries with their speed in Kevin Challenger (508 yards, 5 TD) and Tony Gonzalez (441 yards, 5 TD). The running game features L.V. Whitworth and Andre Callandar, but do not expect fireworks from this part of the offense. Navy might be undersized on defense, but the Midshipmen have shown more than enough effort to make it through games this season.
The deciding factor...
Despite all the time to prepare for the Midshipmen, the Eagles lost their coach Tom O'Brien to NC State and will have to prepare with a new coaching setup. The Eagle defense will probably slow Navy down enough to be the favorite here, but the key will be Boston College's offense not making mistakes. BC has really only lost when they make big mistakes, so Navy will need to create a couple turnovers to wear out the BC defense and possibly win the game.
The staff says...
Ben David Eddie Ethan Gregg Jeff Jonathan Matt Matthew Reed
BC BC NAVY NAVY BC BC NAVY BC BC BC
ALAMO BOWL - Iowa vs Texas
December 30 - 3:30 PM CST ESPN - San Antonio, TX
When Iowa has the ball...
This is a battle of teams that fizzled at the end of the year, and both have had significant injuries to overcome causing these letdowns. Senior QB Drew Tate has been inconsistent, but his leadership is unquestioned and his talent solid. Unfortunately for the Hawkeyes, their best receiver is senior tight end Scott Chandler, so that puts a lot of pressure on the front four and RB's Albert Young and Damian Sims. Texas's defense has not been racked by injuries, but the Longhorn defense was very inconsistent in November. Iowa appears too one-dimensional to make much noise on this side of the ball.
When Texas has the ball...
This week the Longhorns got the best news of the year, that being starting freshman QB Colt McCoy will play in the Alamo Bowl. No matter who throws the passes, Texas has an outstanding offense featuring dual rushing threats Jamaal Charles and Selvin Young, as well as great WR's Limas Sweed and Quan Crosby. The Longhorns really are one Vince Young away from last year's national championship, and the Iowa achilles heel is the poor defensive backfield. With the talent Texas has at WR, Iowa will need to step up and get a lot of pressure on McCoy to have a chance.
The deciding factor...
The coaches and programs are top class in this much-better-than-usual Alamo Bowl. San Antonio is usually happy with one big-name team, but Iowa and the local Longhorns (85 miles from Austin to the Alamo) will both travel well in support of their teams. I really think the Iowa secondary was exposed by Ohio State, and Texas is more than talented enough to exploit that flaw and make that aspect the game-breaker.
The staff says...
Ben David Eddie Ethan Gregg Jeff Jonathan Matt Matthew Reed
TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX
CHICK-FIL-A BOWL - Georgia vs #14-Virginia Tech
December 30 - 7:00 PM CST ESPN - Atlanta, GA
When Georgia has the ball...
Unlike other freshmen quarterbacks at major programs, Matt Stafford really had a rough season for the Dawgs. The offensive line has not enabled RB Kregg Lumpkin to establish himself at all, and Stafford has struggled because he has no playmakers at wide receiver. Virginia Tech is a deceptively good two-loss team, and their top ranked defense has a lot to do with it. Georgia will not score much here.
When Virginia Tech has the ball...
While Virginia Tech does not win with offense either, the Hokies have a lot more going for them than the Bulldogs. RB Branden Ore is the star of the offense (1095 yards rushing, 14 TD), while QB Sean Glennon is no slouch either. Georgia has won 8 games with defense this season, so perhaps the defense keeps them in this one as well. Virginia Tech will probably not overpower the Bulldog defense.
The deciding factor...
If you like points, this game is probably not the one for you. With two mediocre offenses and two dominating defenses, the difference will, as always, come down to special teams and turnovers. Virginia Tech knows this and can afford to spend more time refining their already great special teams, so expect the "Beamerball" to make the difference in this one.
The staff says...
Ben David Eddie Ethan Gregg Jeff Jonathan Matt Matthew Reed
GA VT GA GA GA VT VT VT GA VT
MPC COMPUTERS BOWL - Miami vs Nevada
December 31 - 6:30 PM CST ESPN - Boise, ID
When Miami has the ball...
Well this should be interesting, as Miami will be praying for the best weather Boise has had in December in years. QB Kirby Freeman is a real x-Factor filling in for the injured Kyle Wright. He will be helped by talented freshman RB Javarris James and TE Greg Olsen, as well as many other talented playmakers. Nevada's defense plays the bend-but-don't-break system, which might falter and break with all the talent Miami has. The question then is whether Miami desires to show up for such a game.
When Nevada has the ball...
The Wolfpack may not have as much talent at the Hurricanes, but statistically they have been better all season long (and losing to Boise State is no shame this season). Senior leadership moves this offense with QB Jeff Rowe (1715 yards passing, 16 TD) and RB Robert Hubbard (936 yards rushing, 6 TD). Nevada will not want to let a second big name escape their grasp this season after losing to Bosie State, so on the Broncos' field, the Wolfpack will be more than ready to take on the Hurricanes and their talented defense.
The deciding factor...
Really it has to be whether Miami shows up or not. Miami has more than enough talent and coaching prowess to put this one away easily, but Nevada has the right mix of a good running game and a decent defense to make this interesting. Rough weather could also doom the Hurricanes here. Should be an interesting capper on 2006.
The staff says...
Ben David Eddie Ethan Gregg Jeff Jonathan Matt Matthew Reed
NEV MIA NEV MIA NEV NEV MIA MIA NEV NEV
Car Care Bowl | Alamo Bowl
Chick-fil-A Bowl | MPC Computers Bowl
CAR CARE BOWL - Navy vs Boston College
December 30 - 12:00 PM CST ESPN - Charlotte, NC
When Navy has the ball...
Expect the time of possession meter to continually favor the Midshipmen as the famous option rushing attack leads the nation in yards on the ground. Losing starting QB Brian Hampton in midseason was a huge disappointment, but Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku Enhada has filled in nicely. Enhada has plenty of speed to run the triple option attack, while physical fullback Adam Ballard (792 rushing yards, 3 TD) and explosive halfback Reggie Campbell (655 yards, 5 TD) are great alternatives to go to. Boston College has a great run defense and over a month to prepare for the option, so the key will be to see if Navy continues to be unstoppable on the ground.
When Boston College has the ball...
And now for something completely different, the Eagles offense is led by the passing attack of QB Matt Ryan (2700 yards, 14 TD, 8 INT). Ryan has two great wide receivers to throw to who can burn secondaries with their speed in Kevin Challenger (508 yards, 5 TD) and Tony Gonzalez (441 yards, 5 TD). The running game features L.V. Whitworth and Andre Callandar, but do not expect fireworks from this part of the offense. Navy might be undersized on defense, but the Midshipmen have shown more than enough effort to make it through games this season.
The deciding factor...
Despite all the time to prepare for the Midshipmen, the Eagles lost their coach Tom O'Brien to NC State and will have to prepare with a new coaching setup. The Eagle defense will probably slow Navy down enough to be the favorite here, but the key will be Boston College's offense not making mistakes. BC has really only lost when they make big mistakes, so Navy will need to create a couple turnovers to wear out the BC defense and possibly win the game.
The staff says...
Ben David Eddie Ethan Gregg Jeff Jonathan Matt Matthew Reed
BC BC NAVY NAVY BC BC NAVY BC BC BC
ALAMO BOWL - Iowa vs Texas
December 30 - 3:30 PM CST ESPN - San Antonio, TX
When Iowa has the ball...
This is a battle of teams that fizzled at the end of the year, and both have had significant injuries to overcome causing these letdowns. Senior QB Drew Tate has been inconsistent, but his leadership is unquestioned and his talent solid. Unfortunately for the Hawkeyes, their best receiver is senior tight end Scott Chandler, so that puts a lot of pressure on the front four and RB's Albert Young and Damian Sims. Texas's defense has not been racked by injuries, but the Longhorn defense was very inconsistent in November. Iowa appears too one-dimensional to make much noise on this side of the ball.
When Texas has the ball...
This week the Longhorns got the best news of the year, that being starting freshman QB Colt McCoy will play in the Alamo Bowl. No matter who throws the passes, Texas has an outstanding offense featuring dual rushing threats Jamaal Charles and Selvin Young, as well as great WR's Limas Sweed and Quan Crosby. The Longhorns really are one Vince Young away from last year's national championship, and the Iowa achilles heel is the poor defensive backfield. With the talent Texas has at WR, Iowa will need to step up and get a lot of pressure on McCoy to have a chance.
The deciding factor...
The coaches and programs are top class in this much-better-than-usual Alamo Bowl. San Antonio is usually happy with one big-name team, but Iowa and the local Longhorns (85 miles from Austin to the Alamo) will both travel well in support of their teams. I really think the Iowa secondary was exposed by Ohio State, and Texas is more than talented enough to exploit that flaw and make that aspect the game-breaker.
The staff says...
Ben David Eddie Ethan Gregg Jeff Jonathan Matt Matthew Reed
TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX
CHICK-FIL-A BOWL - Georgia vs #14-Virginia Tech
December 30 - 7:00 PM CST ESPN - Atlanta, GA
When Georgia has the ball...
Unlike other freshmen quarterbacks at major programs, Matt Stafford really had a rough season for the Dawgs. The offensive line has not enabled RB Kregg Lumpkin to establish himself at all, and Stafford has struggled because he has no playmakers at wide receiver. Virginia Tech is a deceptively good two-loss team, and their top ranked defense has a lot to do with it. Georgia will not score much here.
When Virginia Tech has the ball...
While Virginia Tech does not win with offense either, the Hokies have a lot more going for them than the Bulldogs. RB Branden Ore is the star of the offense (1095 yards rushing, 14 TD), while QB Sean Glennon is no slouch either. Georgia has won 8 games with defense this season, so perhaps the defense keeps them in this one as well. Virginia Tech will probably not overpower the Bulldog defense.
The deciding factor...
If you like points, this game is probably not the one for you. With two mediocre offenses and two dominating defenses, the difference will, as always, come down to special teams and turnovers. Virginia Tech knows this and can afford to spend more time refining their already great special teams, so expect the "Beamerball" to make the difference in this one.
The staff says...
Ben David Eddie Ethan Gregg Jeff Jonathan Matt Matthew Reed
GA VT GA GA GA VT VT VT GA VT
MPC COMPUTERS BOWL - Miami vs Nevada
December 31 - 6:30 PM CST ESPN - Boise, ID
When Miami has the ball...
Well this should be interesting, as Miami will be praying for the best weather Boise has had in December in years. QB Kirby Freeman is a real x-Factor filling in for the injured Kyle Wright. He will be helped by talented freshman RB Javarris James and TE Greg Olsen, as well as many other talented playmakers. Nevada's defense plays the bend-but-don't-break system, which might falter and break with all the talent Miami has. The question then is whether Miami desires to show up for such a game.
When Nevada has the ball...
The Wolfpack may not have as much talent at the Hurricanes, but statistically they have been better all season long (and losing to Boise State is no shame this season). Senior leadership moves this offense with QB Jeff Rowe (1715 yards passing, 16 TD) and RB Robert Hubbard (936 yards rushing, 6 TD). Nevada will not want to let a second big name escape their grasp this season after losing to Bosie State, so on the Broncos' field, the Wolfpack will be more than ready to take on the Hurricanes and their talented defense.
The deciding factor...
Really it has to be whether Miami shows up or not. Miami has more than enough talent and coaching prowess to put this one away easily, but Nevada has the right mix of a good running game and a decent defense to make this interesting. Rough weather could also doom the Hurricanes here. Should be an interesting capper on 2006.
The staff says...
Ben David Eddie Ethan Gregg Jeff Jonathan Matt Matthew Reed
NEV MIA NEV MIA NEV NEV MIA MIA NEV NEV
Sunday, December 3, 2006
SELECTION SUNDAY: THE CASE FOR A REMATCH
Well I guess I lied about columns being complete, as "Championship Saturday" brought up one of the most compelling BCS issues of all time. The country and the experts are split following USC’s loss at UCLA as to who should play Ohio State in the BCS Championship Game. On one side is the freshly-minted SEC champ Florida Gators at 12-1. On the other is Big Ten runner-up Michigan at 11-1. Never one to shy away from a BCS debate, I am here working overtime on a Sunday to share my opinion, and that is the only team that truly deserves a shot at OSU is Michigan.
Florida seems to have some hard facts going for them. UF has played 13 games to Michigan’s 12, and the SEC is clearly a better overall conference than the Big Ten this season. Florida is scoring 29.6 points per game to Michigan’s 30.2, and Florida is only giving up 12.7 points per game to Michigan’s 14.6. The Gators have played the toughest schedule in the country, but Michigan played the third-toughest. Florida is ending on a roll, and there will be a sympathy vote for the SEC after Auburn at 12-0 got left out of the BCS title game in 2004. Seems fairly compelling on this side...
Michigan, though, can point to the fact that the numbers above are basically equal between the two teams, and there are three more reasons to pick the Wolverines. Michigan has the much better loss (3 points at Ohio State, the undisputed #1) and better wins against their premier opponents (26 point win at Notre Dame and a dominating 14 point win at Wisconsin). Florida’s loss is not as impressive (10 points at Auburn) and their premier wins are also not as good (21-20 at Tennessee and 23-10 vs. LSU in the Swamp).
The second reason is that everybody was ready to have a rematch two weeks ago if USC did not win out after the OSU-UM classic, and that was when Arkansas and Notre Dame were also in the mix with Florida. Florida has not been the third best team in the country over the past two months. If USC had lost two weeks ago to California, Michigan would have a deadlock on number two and nobody would debate this as much as now. Florida had a chance to play two more games at the end of the year, and the public perception is so fickle. Michigan was our number two after losing to Ohio State, why not now?
The third and perhaps most compelling reason the BCS should have a rematch is that Michigan (and Ohio State) would absolutely run Florida out of the building on the field. Michigan does not make mistakes, and they were the first team to capitalize on an Ohio State mistake on November 18. Michigan has a much better defense and running game, so the domination of tempo and lineman play would make a huge difference. Even if Florida minimized the mistakes and kept it close, the Gators have terrible special teams, including a top kicker who is 3 of 12 on the year on field goals. I wish this could be decided on the field, as then Michigan could prove to everyone that the SEC Champion is a fraud. If the BCS is to match the best two teams in the country for the national title, there is no doubt Michigan is that second team. Don’t be fooled by OSU fans voting their preference to play Florida, as the Buckeye nation is truly afraid of what UM could do in a rematch as opposed to Florida.
In the end this debate should not matter as either team will probably be taken down by Troy Smith and company, but Michigan certainly is the better team and will have a better shot than Florida of knocking off the juggernaut Buckeyes. Florida says Michigan already got their chance, but I wonder if the Gators would feel the same if they had played on November 18 in the Horseshoe against OSU. Florida makes too many mistakes and gets lucky too often to be considered a legitimate national title contender. For those who think this is blasphemous from an OSU fan who saw the 2002 Buckeyes get the same kind of breaks in many games before they knocked off heavily favored Miami for the title, there is one critical difference you are missing. OSU was undefeated and the only other undefeated in 2002, whereas Florida did not take care of their business against Auburn and therefore has to debate with Michigan.
This is indeed where I could make the case for a playoff system, but I think the fact that this debate has to take place is enough proof. Some very deserving team will get left out of the Glendale dance, and that is a shame when every other college division is currently through week two or three of a 16-team playoff. Returning to my playoff system from a couple articles ago, this is what you could be looking forward to if I had my way.
2006 National Championship Playoff
#1 Ohio State vs. #8 Wake Forest
#2 Michigan vs. #7 USC
#3 Florida vs. #6 Oklahoma
#4 Louisville vs. #5 Boise State
Can you imagine this beautiful scenario? The Cinderella Wake Forest gets to test their mettle against the undefeated Buckeyes. Michigan and USC play a traditional Rose Bowl type battle. Florida and Oklahoma would be a showcase of teams on a run at the end of the season, and Louisville vs. Boise State would be a very high-scoring, entertaining affair. This system would also put the importance on the regular season like today because teams pretty much either have to win their conference or go undefeated to get in. Winning the conference would truly mean something, and the national champion would be undisputed. Well enough dreaming for now, as I will give you my final BCS bowl projections (and since the UM-UF issue is too close to call and might require a recount, I give you both contingencies, even though I think UM should play for the title).
BCS Bowl Projection #1
BCS TITLE: Ohio State vs. Michigan
SUGAR: Florida vs. Notre Dame
ORANGE: Wake Forest vs. Louisville
FIESTA: Oklahoma vs. Boise State
ROSE: USC vs. LSU
BCS Bowl Projection #2
BCS TITLE: Ohio State vs. Florida
SUGAR: LSU vs. Notre Dame
ORANGE: Wake Forest vs. Louisville
FIESTA: Oklahoma vs. Boise State
ROSE: USC vs. Michigan
As you can see, the Florida/Michigan controversy also affects where LSU will be spending bowl season. The Bayou Bengals will either play in their first ever Rose Bowl against USC or stay closer to home in the traditional Sugar Bowl against Notre Dame. The bowls might surprise and wreck this if Boise State is selected over Louisville, but they have been fairly predictable (and these matchups seem correct to me).
No games to preview this week, but now a final season record can be put into perspective.
2005 GOTW (Regular Season) Record: 26-17, 60.5% wins
2006 GOTW (Regular Season) Record: 30-12, 71.4% wins
2005-06 Bowl Season Record: 17-11, 60.7% wins
2006-07 Bowl Season Record: TBA
Fitzy’s Top 10 – Final Regular Season
1. Ohio State (12-0)
2. Michigan (11-1)
3. Wisconsin (11-1)
4. Florida (12-1)
5. LSU (10-2)
6. Louisville (11-1)
7. Oklahoma (11-2)
8. Boise State (12-0)
9. USC (10-2)
10. Auburn (10-2)
Well you may not be reading this until after the BCS and total bowl lineups are announced, but nonetheless I wish you a great holiday season. Come back in a couple weeks and see the staff’s take on all the bowl games, and good luck to all the people still in contention at the end of the year in the Pick'Em contest. As always, feel free to email me with opinions or comments. Thanks for reading!
Florida seems to have some hard facts going for them. UF has played 13 games to Michigan’s 12, and the SEC is clearly a better overall conference than the Big Ten this season. Florida is scoring 29.6 points per game to Michigan’s 30.2, and Florida is only giving up 12.7 points per game to Michigan’s 14.6. The Gators have played the toughest schedule in the country, but Michigan played the third-toughest. Florida is ending on a roll, and there will be a sympathy vote for the SEC after Auburn at 12-0 got left out of the BCS title game in 2004. Seems fairly compelling on this side...
Michigan, though, can point to the fact that the numbers above are basically equal between the two teams, and there are three more reasons to pick the Wolverines. Michigan has the much better loss (3 points at Ohio State, the undisputed #1) and better wins against their premier opponents (26 point win at Notre Dame and a dominating 14 point win at Wisconsin). Florida’s loss is not as impressive (10 points at Auburn) and their premier wins are also not as good (21-20 at Tennessee and 23-10 vs. LSU in the Swamp).
The second reason is that everybody was ready to have a rematch two weeks ago if USC did not win out after the OSU-UM classic, and that was when Arkansas and Notre Dame were also in the mix with Florida. Florida has not been the third best team in the country over the past two months. If USC had lost two weeks ago to California, Michigan would have a deadlock on number two and nobody would debate this as much as now. Florida had a chance to play two more games at the end of the year, and the public perception is so fickle. Michigan was our number two after losing to Ohio State, why not now?
The third and perhaps most compelling reason the BCS should have a rematch is that Michigan (and Ohio State) would absolutely run Florida out of the building on the field. Michigan does not make mistakes, and they were the first team to capitalize on an Ohio State mistake on November 18. Michigan has a much better defense and running game, so the domination of tempo and lineman play would make a huge difference. Even if Florida minimized the mistakes and kept it close, the Gators have terrible special teams, including a top kicker who is 3 of 12 on the year on field goals. I wish this could be decided on the field, as then Michigan could prove to everyone that the SEC Champion is a fraud. If the BCS is to match the best two teams in the country for the national title, there is no doubt Michigan is that second team. Don’t be fooled by OSU fans voting their preference to play Florida, as the Buckeye nation is truly afraid of what UM could do in a rematch as opposed to Florida.
In the end this debate should not matter as either team will probably be taken down by Troy Smith and company, but Michigan certainly is the better team and will have a better shot than Florida of knocking off the juggernaut Buckeyes. Florida says Michigan already got their chance, but I wonder if the Gators would feel the same if they had played on November 18 in the Horseshoe against OSU. Florida makes too many mistakes and gets lucky too often to be considered a legitimate national title contender. For those who think this is blasphemous from an OSU fan who saw the 2002 Buckeyes get the same kind of breaks in many games before they knocked off heavily favored Miami for the title, there is one critical difference you are missing. OSU was undefeated and the only other undefeated in 2002, whereas Florida did not take care of their business against Auburn and therefore has to debate with Michigan.
This is indeed where I could make the case for a playoff system, but I think the fact that this debate has to take place is enough proof. Some very deserving team will get left out of the Glendale dance, and that is a shame when every other college division is currently through week two or three of a 16-team playoff. Returning to my playoff system from a couple articles ago, this is what you could be looking forward to if I had my way.
2006 National Championship Playoff
#1 Ohio State vs. #8 Wake Forest
#2 Michigan vs. #7 USC
#3 Florida vs. #6 Oklahoma
#4 Louisville vs. #5 Boise State
Can you imagine this beautiful scenario? The Cinderella Wake Forest gets to test their mettle against the undefeated Buckeyes. Michigan and USC play a traditional Rose Bowl type battle. Florida and Oklahoma would be a showcase of teams on a run at the end of the season, and Louisville vs. Boise State would be a very high-scoring, entertaining affair. This system would also put the importance on the regular season like today because teams pretty much either have to win their conference or go undefeated to get in. Winning the conference would truly mean something, and the national champion would be undisputed. Well enough dreaming for now, as I will give you my final BCS bowl projections (and since the UM-UF issue is too close to call and might require a recount, I give you both contingencies, even though I think UM should play for the title).
BCS Bowl Projection #1
BCS TITLE: Ohio State vs. Michigan
SUGAR: Florida vs. Notre Dame
ORANGE: Wake Forest vs. Louisville
FIESTA: Oklahoma vs. Boise State
ROSE: USC vs. LSU
BCS Bowl Projection #2
BCS TITLE: Ohio State vs. Florida
SUGAR: LSU vs. Notre Dame
ORANGE: Wake Forest vs. Louisville
FIESTA: Oklahoma vs. Boise State
ROSE: USC vs. Michigan
As you can see, the Florida/Michigan controversy also affects where LSU will be spending bowl season. The Bayou Bengals will either play in their first ever Rose Bowl against USC or stay closer to home in the traditional Sugar Bowl against Notre Dame. The bowls might surprise and wreck this if Boise State is selected over Louisville, but they have been fairly predictable (and these matchups seem correct to me).
No games to preview this week, but now a final season record can be put into perspective.
2005 GOTW (Regular Season) Record: 26-17, 60.5% wins
2006 GOTW (Regular Season) Record: 30-12, 71.4% wins
2005-06 Bowl Season Record: 17-11, 60.7% wins
2006-07 Bowl Season Record: TBA
Fitzy’s Top 10 – Final Regular Season
1. Ohio State (12-0)
2. Michigan (11-1)
3. Wisconsin (11-1)
4. Florida (12-1)
5. LSU (10-2)
6. Louisville (11-1)
7. Oklahoma (11-2)
8. Boise State (12-0)
9. USC (10-2)
10. Auburn (10-2)
Well you may not be reading this until after the BCS and total bowl lineups are announced, but nonetheless I wish you a great holiday season. Come back in a couple weeks and see the staff’s take on all the bowl games, and good luck to all the people still in contention at the end of the year in the Pick'Em contest. As always, feel free to email me with opinions or comments. Thanks for reading!
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