A long and winding regular season comes to a close for most teams in college football this weekend. This weekend also marks the Thanksgiving holidays, which is a time to feast and enjoy the company of family and friends. Whether on Thanksgiving Day itself or on the Friday and Saturday following, there's a lot of football this weekend to keep us all entertained. Before we pass the turkey and cranberries, here's a list of ten things I am most thankful for in the 2009 college football season.
10. BCS Turnover - Only four teams came into 2009 with two consecutive BCS Bowl appearances: Virginia Tech (2), Oklahoma (3), Ohio State (4), and USC (7). With Oklahoma and USC each falling off the bandwagon and Virginia Tech already sustaining three losses that put them out of the ACC Championship, it appears that the only streak above 2 after this season will be Ohio State. Turnover and parity is good for conference strength and for seeing something different every January. While dynasties are also nice, it is great so finally see some turnover in the BCS chase at least for this season.
9. Yes Virginia, even dynasties have rebuilding years - On that note, kudos to 2009 for teaching the world Pete Carroll and Bob Stoops must rebuild from time to time. Each was supposed to compete for a national title, but USC could not overcome starting a freshman quarterback and will likely not be in the BCS for the first time in 8 seasons. Oklahoma has a shocking 5 losses and has played most of the season without Heisman winner Sam Bradford. For two of the three-five teams who have dominated the decade, a return to prominence will allow these coaches to build their legends more than staying on top all the time.
8. Rivalry Week(s) - Now that college football's regular season ends over 4 weeks, not all rivalries come on the same week. However, this is the primary go week for rivalries and there should be a lot of close games and passionate football. From Michigan-Ohio State last Saturday to Army-Navy December 12, the rivalries will continue. This is the best part of the season thanks in large part to rivalries.
7. How Much is it worth to say goodbye? - The signs are on the wall around South Bend, and the vultures have been swooping in around Charlie Weis for two years now. A 6-5 record in a crucial year and now a slight controversy surrounding QB Jimmy clausen may be the last straw. However, it would cost Notre Dame $18 million to buy out the last five years of the contract thanks to a ridiculous extension added after Notre Dame lost competitively to USC four years ago. $18 million dollars could go a long way in scholarship money or other activities at the university, but perhaps this is better than what the university will lose in 5 more years of suffering football. It's a tough calculus and fun to watch.
6. The Rise of Iowa and Cincinnati - While Iowa sometimes competes for Big Ten titles and Cincinnati made the BCS last year, neither is a regular to the national title scene. And yet, three weeks ago, each was undefeated and staring up only at the Big Three powers Florida, Alabama, and Texas. Iowa had the biggest roller coaster week-to-week and had two of the most memorable games in a win at Michigan State and a loss at Ohio State. Meanwhile, Cincinnati keeps on chugging into late November despite losing their own starting quarterback. However, the Bearcats found they really have two quarterbacks who could start, but you have to wonder if UC will feel the pressure in the last two games to close the deal.
5. Top Teams Not Invincible - The aforementioned Big Three have been running the show most of the season, but not necessarily because of the results on the field. In a year where the number of undefeated teams shrank below ten very quickly, the Gators, Crimson Tide, and Longhorns have held the spotlight for so long. However, Florida has struggled against Arkansas and South Carolina, Alabama squeaked by Tennessee, and Texas had issue with a weak Oklahoma squad. Each team that could be playing for the national championship has a lot of flaws, and that makes for a very entertaining matchup no matter who makes it to Pasadena.
4. Redemption For LaGarrette Blount - This was covered in detail a couple weeks ago, but Blount is the comeback player of the year by my ballot even if he doesn't play many snaps even at the Rose Bowl or wherever Oregon ends up. The Ducks running back sold the Pac-10, Chip Kelly, his teammates, and the NCAA on his turning around from the incident of sucker punching a Boise State player in the first game of the season. Whether or not Blount seriously hurt his draft status, he will at least have a future in the pros which is better than it seemed a few months ago.
3. A Heisman Race Worth Watching - Yes Colt McCoy might win the Heisman based on not winning it the past two seasons, and Tim Tebow might win his second for being a gutty MVP of a national-championship calbier team. But in all reality, this Heisman race is full of nobody who was on the radar seriously at season's beginning. And the race changes week to week, making this the most interesting Heisman race in some time.
2. All Conferences having a Championship Game - Although only three of the BCS conferences have an official Championship Game, the other three BCS conferences have lucked into a backloaded schedule that formed de facto championship games where the winner gets the automatic BCS berth. The Big Ten had theirs two weeks ago as Ohio State knocked off Iowa, but we have five more to look forward to next week: ACC (Clemson vs. Georgia Tech), Big East (Cincinnati at Pittsburgh), Big XII (Texas vs. Nebraska), Pac-10 (Oregon State at Oregon), and SEC (Florida vs. Alabama). Considering this lucky circumstance, we will likely have five games of the week next week to celebrate.
1. BCS Chaos at the Doorstep - Six undefeated teams, only two of which play each other. Only three one-loss teams remain behind them, but the debate rages as to whether both non-BCS schools will get into the BCS picture and whether Cincinnati has a chance of busting the party. If this perfect storm cannot get two non-BCS schools in, nothing ever will and that is not good for the BCS credibility. Furthermore, leaving undefeated teams out of the national title picture from BCS conferences never makes the BCS look good, but the circumstance becomes more real every week. The BCS never has it easy, and this season there has been even more spicy debate growing than usual. So thanks to the BCS debate, as usual!
2010 BCS Bowl Projections, 2 Weeks To Go
BCS Championship - Florida vs. Texas
Orange - Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Fiesta - Iowa vs. Boise State
Sugar - Alabama vs. Pittsburgh
Rose - Ohio State vs. Oregon
The first game of the week is Utah at Brigham Young. Usually a battle for MWC supremacy, each of these teams has had the rug swept out from under them by the TCU Horned Frogs this season. Still, both the Cougars and the Utes come into this battle at 6-1 in conference play and lots of bragging rights on the line. The Utes won last year by forcing turnovers, but the script might be flipped this year with experienced QB Max Hall piloting the Cougars while rookie QB Terrence Cain leads the Utes. One cannot discount the better defense in a battle like this, and Utah's defense has become a very solid unit in the back seven. If they can contain receivers long enough to frustrate Max Hall, the Utes have a serious chance. Still, BYU will win this by 4.
The second game of the week is Nevada visiting the blue turf at Boise State with the MWC title on the line. This is literally the Broncos' last chance to impress voters before the end of the season, and while beating an undefeated TCU is likely off the table now, a second BCS at large berth is still there for the taking. The Wolfpack come in on a eight game winning streak, and they also bring the nation's best rushing game to Boise with 373 yards per game. The Broncos defense will be sorely tested by all three of the Wolfpack's 1000-yard rushers: RB Vai Taua, QB Colin Kaepernick, and RB Luke Lippincott. On the other side of the ball, Broncos QB Kellen Moore will be looking to get back on track after an off week in a rout. If Nevada can keep Moore and company off the field and stay two-dimensional on offense, Nevada could shock the world. However, Boise should pull through with so much on the line at home, BSU by 10.
The third and top game of the week is the Backyard Brawl, Pittsburgh at West Virginia. Now while this game has no bearing on the Big East championship, which will be decided next weekend when Cincinnati visits the Panthers, WVU still has a chance to better their conference standing by knocking down Pitt. Plus there's a little extra spice on the line as the Mountaineers want to knock Pittsburgh out of the national title picture (albeit a longshot) like Pitt did in Morgantown by shocking the Mountaineers 13-9. Look for the Panthers to establish the run early and often with freshman RB Dion Lewis to try and keep the game at the pace they desire. Meanwhile, West Virginia will look to their two stars to keep Pittsburgh's offense off the field in QB Jarrett Brown and RB Noel Devine. This should be a fast-paced game but do not expect much scoring as both defenses will be up to the task of stopping their rival. In a close battle, you have to like the home field advantage and the intangibles favoring WVU. Mountaineers by 2.
2009 GOTW Record: 22-14
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 - Week 12
1. Texas
2. Florida
3. Alabama
4. TCU
5. Cincinnati
6. Boise State
7. Georgia Tech
8. Pittsburgh
9. Ohio State
10. Oregon
Just Missed: Oklahoma State, Iowa, Penn State, Clemson, BYU
Don't forget to pass the gravy! As I mentioned earlier, this week is full of rivalries but next week will bring the five remaining BCS conference championship games. Lots to look forward to in the last two weeks of the season and before you know it, the bowls will be here! Have a fantastic holiday weekend.
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Thursday, November 19, 2009
A Tale of Two Cities, NCAA Football Style
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times...
Back in 2001, two all-time dyansties of college football went a new direction with head coaches. A decade later, these two programs would become the biggest dynasties of the decade. Ohio State had won 4 consecutive Big Ten titles and USC has won seven straight Pac-10 titles. The two programs clashed the past two seasons, with the Trojans sweeping the series. Yet on the second Saturday of November, it was the worst of times in Los Angeles as USC gave up the most points in the history of their program. Meanwhile in Columbus, Ohio State was redeeming a season seemingly lost in West Lafayette four weeks prior. One conference dynasty continues, one ends in flames. And so it goes in the world of college football.
It was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness...
After another loss to USC on the big stage, some of the Buckeye fan base began to buy into the "Jim Tressel's system does not work" belief. This feeling grew after OSU's first truly bad loss in over five years to Purdue. Yet Tressel held the course and the offensive play calling duties, banking on his special teams and defense to carry the Buckeyes back into the conference title talk. While the wins are not always pretty against the better teams such as Iowa, four weeks of wins later proved the wisdom of Tresselball in the Big Ten. In a conference dominated by running games and defense, a conservative Woody Hayes-type strategy works very well. But even Tressel needed a bit of help, a bit of foolishness. Kirk Ferentz provided this foolishness in not going for the win on the road on their last possession, despite having timeouts, good field position, and all the momentum in the Horseshoe. Ferentz played for overtime, which was foolish and was quickly punished by who else, but the Buckeye special teams and defense.
It was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity...
Meanwhile in Los Angeles, Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh finished a three-year revival project at Stanford by knocking off USC in the Coliseum for the second time in three years. Harbaugh came into the 2007 season with a belief that he could have Stanford playing with USC very shortly. Not only did he upset USC in his first attempt as a 41 point underdog, he now has led his team to more points scored against USC than any other team in history. Harbaugh had his belief in the program proven and could end up where nobody could have guessed...the Rose Bowl in 2010. Meanwhile, the seemingly always smug and smiling Pete Carroll had a look of incredulity on his face as the kingdom of Troy fell around him. Furthermore, Harbaugh pulled no punches by going for 2 late in the game up by 27. Carroll has finally been conquered, and you can just tell he cannot believe it. After seven years of dominance and reloading, the rebuilding has begun.
It was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness...
Terrelle Pryor surprisingly took away the starting quarterback reins at Ohio State his freshman season mostly because Todd Boeckman was exposed by a weak offensive line and a dominant USC defense in 2008. Pryor has shown moments of greatness, as his elusiveness and speed make him a hybrid between Ben Roethlisburger and Vince Young. However, as much of a bright spot as Pryor can be, there is a dark side. Pryor has been very questionable in his second season as far as throwing fundamentals. Hence, Jim Tressel has put such a tight leash on Pryor that he was merely a game manager against Iowa without any downfield attempts. So will Pryor ever live up to his bright shining potential, or will the leash get tighter and tighter until Pryor's career as a quarterback ends at the college level? The only certain thing is that the rest of Pryor's days will be filled with the brightness of being a Heisman contender or the darkness of being a wasted talent.
It was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair...
Southern Cal football was one of four teams coming into this season which were considered sure-fire BCS Championship contenders. While Texas and Florida have lived up to expectations and Oklahoma has been understandably devastated by injuries, USC has no such excuse to lean on. With seven straight conference titles and BCS bowl dominance, everyone in Los Angeles hoped for yet another title shot in their own backyard. Instead, the Trojans will not be spending January anywhere near Pasadena for either the BCS Championship or the Rose Bowl. So although a lot of experience has been gained this season, there's no doubt that this is becoming a winter of despair in Los Angeles. USC is beatable in November and will truly need to have a bounce back year for the first time in a decade. It's going to a be a long few months of recruiting and rebuilding ahead.
We had everything before us, we had nothing before us...
The college football season is a fleeting beast, over before you know what hit you. The Buckeyes turn to Michigan week with stranger circumstances than any other time in the Jim Tressel era. Ohio State is playing for nothing as the Rose Bowl and the Big Ten title already sits before them. However, seasons are won and lost in Columbus based on Michigan week, something Tressel understands with a 7-1 record in the rivalry. With Michigan and a Rose Bowl ahead, one might be just as inclined to say the Buckeyes have everything before them as they are to say the Buckeyes have nothing before them with most of their season goals accomplished.
We were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way...
So in summary, all good things must come to an end. Whether the dynasties are destined for a better place or a worse place, eventually the other members of the Pac-10 and the Big Ten must shine. Even though Tressel and Carroll will likely be long gone, the respective fanbases can be comfortedin knowing that each program will rise to the top again and again. But for right now, one dynasty continues while the other experiences a true rebuilding year. Buckeyes feel like heaven while Trojans feel like hell.
The BCS Bowl Projections have not changed much. My initial guess at Boise State and TCU both getting BCS berths looks stronger and stronger with all the other big name contenders dropping from contention. Oregon is slotted right back where they were two weeks ago with USC's loss, while Miami's loss opens a spot for the Big Ten runner up. An interesting debate should happen between Wisconsin, Iowa, and Penn State, but Iowa beat both the others on the road this season. With a dominating win over a respectable Minnesota team and a great performance against OSU, the Hawkeyes should be the pick but the Nittany Lions are in the mix again.
2010 BCS Bowl Projections, 3 Weeks To Go
BCS Championship - Florida vs. Texas
Orange - Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Fiesta - Iowa vs. Boise State
Sugar - Alabama vs. Pittsburgh
Rose - Ohio State vs. Oregon
The first game of the week is "The Big Game" as Cal travels to Stanford. Just like the rivalry with USC, Jim Harbaugh has revived the life in this rivalry game as well, splitting his first two meetings with the Golden Bears. Both teams come in playing good football as of late, but Stanford is a bit hotter scoring over 100 points the last two weeks against teams Cal mustered a grand total of 6 points against (Oregon and USC). The Golden Bears offense is now leaning heavily on junior QB Kevin Riley with the continued missed time by RB Javhid Best. However, Cal has maintained a solid running game with RB Shane Vereen, and Stanford has struggled a bit against solid rushing attacks. On the other side of the ball, the Cal defense is tasked with stopping one of the most balanced offenses in the country. The Cardinal has thrived with freshman QB Andrew Luck, who has only thrown three interceptions all season. Look for Jeff Tedford to send a lot of different defensive looks and blitzes at the young Cardinal quarterback, hoping to disrupt the offensive juggernaut. Stanford is just too hot right now to be derailed. Cardinal by 10.
The second game of the week is Air Force visiting BYU. Although the reigning champion Utah and the new kids on the block TCU stole all the spotlight last week, this battle of MWC teams should not be overlooked. Although QB Max Hall cannot lead BYU past TCU for a conference title, he can lock up a school record for wins and finish his career strong with wins against Air Force and Utah. Hall has been helped tremendously by RB Harvey Unga, who has kept defenses honest this season. The Falcons run the option, but Air Force wins games with defense and not turning the ball over. BYU has dominated the Falcon defense the past few years, but no team (including Utah and TCU) has surpassed 20 points in regulation against Air Force. If the Falcons can attack the Cougar defense effectively and keep Hall off the field, Air Force could very well break their five-game skid against BYU. This game turns out to be a lot closer than expected, but BYU prevails with a 3 point win.
The top game of the week is Oregon at Arizona. Despite Arizona's loss last weekend, these two teams control their own destiny in the Rose Bowl race. Each team ranks in the top 30 nationally on offense, so expect this game to be another wild shootout in the west. QB Nick Foles leads the Wildcat offense, which throws for nearly 300 yards per contest. However, Arizona has sturggled to score points lately, which will be a problem considering how the ducks put up points. Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli will be tough to contain for the Wildcat linebackers, but freshman RB LaMichael James is the primary threat in the Ducks' prolific rushing attack. Arizona is undefeated at home and is due for a high quality effort, but Oregon can see the finish line again and would like to simplify the race significantly in the Pac-10. Ducks win by 13.
2009 GOTW Record: 20-13
Last Week: 3-0
Fitz Top 10 - Week 11
1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Florida
4. TCU
5. Cincinnati
6. Boise State
7. Georgia Tech
8. Pittsburgh
9. Ohio State
10. Oregon
Just Missed: LSU, Oklahoma State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State
Really this is a fairly weak rivalry week, as many of the traditional rivalries do not carry the usual weight this year. In any event, there are three weeks left in the regular season (not counting Army-Navy), and there's not much time left for surprises in the Top 10 and the BCS bowl hunt. Nevertheless, the storylines will captivate our weekends for the rest of November. Have a good weekend!
Back in 2001, two all-time dyansties of college football went a new direction with head coaches. A decade later, these two programs would become the biggest dynasties of the decade. Ohio State had won 4 consecutive Big Ten titles and USC has won seven straight Pac-10 titles. The two programs clashed the past two seasons, with the Trojans sweeping the series. Yet on the second Saturday of November, it was the worst of times in Los Angeles as USC gave up the most points in the history of their program. Meanwhile in Columbus, Ohio State was redeeming a season seemingly lost in West Lafayette four weeks prior. One conference dynasty continues, one ends in flames. And so it goes in the world of college football.
It was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness...
After another loss to USC on the big stage, some of the Buckeye fan base began to buy into the "Jim Tressel's system does not work" belief. This feeling grew after OSU's first truly bad loss in over five years to Purdue. Yet Tressel held the course and the offensive play calling duties, banking on his special teams and defense to carry the Buckeyes back into the conference title talk. While the wins are not always pretty against the better teams such as Iowa, four weeks of wins later proved the wisdom of Tresselball in the Big Ten. In a conference dominated by running games and defense, a conservative Woody Hayes-type strategy works very well. But even Tressel needed a bit of help, a bit of foolishness. Kirk Ferentz provided this foolishness in not going for the win on the road on their last possession, despite having timeouts, good field position, and all the momentum in the Horseshoe. Ferentz played for overtime, which was foolish and was quickly punished by who else, but the Buckeye special teams and defense.
It was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity...
Meanwhile in Los Angeles, Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh finished a three-year revival project at Stanford by knocking off USC in the Coliseum for the second time in three years. Harbaugh came into the 2007 season with a belief that he could have Stanford playing with USC very shortly. Not only did he upset USC in his first attempt as a 41 point underdog, he now has led his team to more points scored against USC than any other team in history. Harbaugh had his belief in the program proven and could end up where nobody could have guessed...the Rose Bowl in 2010. Meanwhile, the seemingly always smug and smiling Pete Carroll had a look of incredulity on his face as the kingdom of Troy fell around him. Furthermore, Harbaugh pulled no punches by going for 2 late in the game up by 27. Carroll has finally been conquered, and you can just tell he cannot believe it. After seven years of dominance and reloading, the rebuilding has begun.
It was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness...
Terrelle Pryor surprisingly took away the starting quarterback reins at Ohio State his freshman season mostly because Todd Boeckman was exposed by a weak offensive line and a dominant USC defense in 2008. Pryor has shown moments of greatness, as his elusiveness and speed make him a hybrid between Ben Roethlisburger and Vince Young. However, as much of a bright spot as Pryor can be, there is a dark side. Pryor has been very questionable in his second season as far as throwing fundamentals. Hence, Jim Tressel has put such a tight leash on Pryor that he was merely a game manager against Iowa without any downfield attempts. So will Pryor ever live up to his bright shining potential, or will the leash get tighter and tighter until Pryor's career as a quarterback ends at the college level? The only certain thing is that the rest of Pryor's days will be filled with the brightness of being a Heisman contender or the darkness of being a wasted talent.
It was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair...
Southern Cal football was one of four teams coming into this season which were considered sure-fire BCS Championship contenders. While Texas and Florida have lived up to expectations and Oklahoma has been understandably devastated by injuries, USC has no such excuse to lean on. With seven straight conference titles and BCS bowl dominance, everyone in Los Angeles hoped for yet another title shot in their own backyard. Instead, the Trojans will not be spending January anywhere near Pasadena for either the BCS Championship or the Rose Bowl. So although a lot of experience has been gained this season, there's no doubt that this is becoming a winter of despair in Los Angeles. USC is beatable in November and will truly need to have a bounce back year for the first time in a decade. It's going to a be a long few months of recruiting and rebuilding ahead.
We had everything before us, we had nothing before us...
The college football season is a fleeting beast, over before you know what hit you. The Buckeyes turn to Michigan week with stranger circumstances than any other time in the Jim Tressel era. Ohio State is playing for nothing as the Rose Bowl and the Big Ten title already sits before them. However, seasons are won and lost in Columbus based on Michigan week, something Tressel understands with a 7-1 record in the rivalry. With Michigan and a Rose Bowl ahead, one might be just as inclined to say the Buckeyes have everything before them as they are to say the Buckeyes have nothing before them with most of their season goals accomplished.
We were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way...
So in summary, all good things must come to an end. Whether the dynasties are destined for a better place or a worse place, eventually the other members of the Pac-10 and the Big Ten must shine. Even though Tressel and Carroll will likely be long gone, the respective fanbases can be comfortedin knowing that each program will rise to the top again and again. But for right now, one dynasty continues while the other experiences a true rebuilding year. Buckeyes feel like heaven while Trojans feel like hell.
The BCS Bowl Projections have not changed much. My initial guess at Boise State and TCU both getting BCS berths looks stronger and stronger with all the other big name contenders dropping from contention. Oregon is slotted right back where they were two weeks ago with USC's loss, while Miami's loss opens a spot for the Big Ten runner up. An interesting debate should happen between Wisconsin, Iowa, and Penn State, but Iowa beat both the others on the road this season. With a dominating win over a respectable Minnesota team and a great performance against OSU, the Hawkeyes should be the pick but the Nittany Lions are in the mix again.
2010 BCS Bowl Projections, 3 Weeks To Go
BCS Championship - Florida vs. Texas
Orange - Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Fiesta - Iowa vs. Boise State
Sugar - Alabama vs. Pittsburgh
Rose - Ohio State vs. Oregon
The first game of the week is "The Big Game" as Cal travels to Stanford. Just like the rivalry with USC, Jim Harbaugh has revived the life in this rivalry game as well, splitting his first two meetings with the Golden Bears. Both teams come in playing good football as of late, but Stanford is a bit hotter scoring over 100 points the last two weeks against teams Cal mustered a grand total of 6 points against (Oregon and USC). The Golden Bears offense is now leaning heavily on junior QB Kevin Riley with the continued missed time by RB Javhid Best. However, Cal has maintained a solid running game with RB Shane Vereen, and Stanford has struggled a bit against solid rushing attacks. On the other side of the ball, the Cal defense is tasked with stopping one of the most balanced offenses in the country. The Cardinal has thrived with freshman QB Andrew Luck, who has only thrown three interceptions all season. Look for Jeff Tedford to send a lot of different defensive looks and blitzes at the young Cardinal quarterback, hoping to disrupt the offensive juggernaut. Stanford is just too hot right now to be derailed. Cardinal by 10.
The second game of the week is Air Force visiting BYU. Although the reigning champion Utah and the new kids on the block TCU stole all the spotlight last week, this battle of MWC teams should not be overlooked. Although QB Max Hall cannot lead BYU past TCU for a conference title, he can lock up a school record for wins and finish his career strong with wins against Air Force and Utah. Hall has been helped tremendously by RB Harvey Unga, who has kept defenses honest this season. The Falcons run the option, but Air Force wins games with defense and not turning the ball over. BYU has dominated the Falcon defense the past few years, but no team (including Utah and TCU) has surpassed 20 points in regulation against Air Force. If the Falcons can attack the Cougar defense effectively and keep Hall off the field, Air Force could very well break their five-game skid against BYU. This game turns out to be a lot closer than expected, but BYU prevails with a 3 point win.
The top game of the week is Oregon at Arizona. Despite Arizona's loss last weekend, these two teams control their own destiny in the Rose Bowl race. Each team ranks in the top 30 nationally on offense, so expect this game to be another wild shootout in the west. QB Nick Foles leads the Wildcat offense, which throws for nearly 300 yards per contest. However, Arizona has sturggled to score points lately, which will be a problem considering how the ducks put up points. Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli will be tough to contain for the Wildcat linebackers, but freshman RB LaMichael James is the primary threat in the Ducks' prolific rushing attack. Arizona is undefeated at home and is due for a high quality effort, but Oregon can see the finish line again and would like to simplify the race significantly in the Pac-10. Ducks win by 13.
2009 GOTW Record: 20-13
Last Week: 3-0
Fitz Top 10 - Week 11
1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Florida
4. TCU
5. Cincinnati
6. Boise State
7. Georgia Tech
8. Pittsburgh
9. Ohio State
10. Oregon
Just Missed: LSU, Oklahoma State, Iowa, Wisconsin, Penn State
Really this is a fairly weak rivalry week, as many of the traditional rivalries do not carry the usual weight this year. In any event, there are three weeks left in the regular season (not counting Army-Navy), and there's not much time left for surprises in the Top 10 and the BCS bowl hunt. Nevertheless, the storylines will captivate our weekends for the rest of November. Have a good weekend!
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Overcoming Adveristy, One Week at a Time
For the fellowship of the undefeated, the last three weeks of October were all about survive and advance. Every single week, each of the seven dealt with some adversity. Some weeks it was keeping motivation levels high for a lesser opponent, other weeks the adversity was all about bad starts or close games on the field. In the most unlikely of circumstances, every team survived the scares and the adversity, week after week. As the calendar turned to November, the kings of the drama every week finally left the undefeated seven, as Iowa lost to Northwestern. While we must bid farewell to the Hawkeyes in the BCS race, this dramatically simplifies the picture for the national title.
Before we get into the contenders, let's discuss why the Hawkeyes were the first to fall out. Iowa started the season by losing their superstar running back to the NFL draft a year early, then the problems compounded when starter Jewel Hampton suffered a season-ending injury in the fall practices. Already down to option number 3, the Hawkeyes suffered another loss as Adam Robinson went down two weeks ago and this left basically one true freshman Brandon Wegher and no other good options. To further exacerbate the problems, TE Tony Moeaki, OL Dace Richardson, SS Brett Greenwood, and WR Brett Greenwood all sustained injuries that knocked them out of games in October and some in November. So when the unquestioned leader QB Ricky Stanzi fell to injury in the second quarter on Saturday, the Iowa offense came to a screeching halt. Iowa barely sniffed Northwestern's end of the field and the day was lost. What this proves is that with limited talent (which is what Kirk Ferentz has to work with), there's only so much injury adversity you can overcome. The Hawkeyes are to be commended for walking a tightrope all season and playing shorthanded, but that will not comfort their fans as a dream season could very well come crashing to a halt in Columbus this Saturday. But more on that later.
In the national title race, non-BCS schools are non-factors, and even mighty TCU will be dragged down enough by the bad teams in the MWC too much in the computer ratings. With Iowa, Oregon, and LSU leaving the picture last weekend, there's only four teams with a shot to play for the national championship now. Alabama and Florida will duke it out in the SEC Championship in three weeks, while Texas plays out the string in the Big XII and Cincinnati has a monster final three games. The difference between teams like Cincinnati and teams like Iowa showed last weekend as Cincinnati continued to reap the benefits of having a great backup quarterback while Iowa could not overcome the same scenario. Cincinnati has the hardest schedule remaining of the contenders, but things are going just fine as Brian Kelly is able to bench a quarterback who was a legitimate Heisman candidate before his injury. There's no doubt an undefeated SEC Champion and an undefeated Texas will meet in Pasadena if each stays undefeated, but things get interesting if losses happen to the top 3 teams in the current BCS Standings. If Texas loses to one of the mediocre teams left on their schedule, there's no question an undefeated Cincinnati team coming off wins against West Virginia and Pittsburgh will leap over the Longhorns. But what about the Bearcats versus a one loss SEC Champion? While it sort of depends on when the SEC Champion loses (earlier being better of course), but I think Cincinnati would play Texas if they are the only two BCS conference champions who remain undefeated.
I hold this belief in Cincinnati for multiple reasons. The voters are coming around to Cincinnati and will only do that more and more if they keep winning in the tough November schedule. The fact that Tony Pike is being benched in favor of Zach Collaros proves that Cincinnati has enough offense to get in a shootout with any of the three teams above them. While the 45 points surrendered to UCONN last weekend is troubling when comparing defenses, the Bearcats have been solid the rest of the season. Although Alabama or Florida would be coming off a massive win, Cincinnati would presumably be coming off a win against a possible Top 5 opponent on the road in Pittsburgh. While the SEC has won the past three BCS titles, it would be very upsetting to see a BCS Conference team go undefeated and not make the championship, hence I suspect voters would overcompensate on behalf of the Bearcats against a one-loss SEC Champion. So Cincinnati only has to cheer for one more loss to be in the driver's seat for the BCS Championship. Unfortunately for Cincinnati, this does not seem likely to happen. That's why we play the games though!
So with the pecking order in the BCS established, now is a fantastic time to review all the conference races coming to a close in two or three weeks. In the ACC, it looks like Clemson will be able to finish off the two lower-tier ACC teams left on their schedule to meet Georgia Tech in December. One has to figure Georgia Tech wins that matchup. The Big XII South is all Texas now barring two incredible losses, but the North is completely up for grabs. Expect the winner of Kansas State and Nebraska to meet Texas, but the Longhorns should finish undefeated to atone for last year's diappointment. The Big East has somehow backloaded their schedule yet again, as undefeated Cincinnati and Pittsburgh each have to deal with the only one-loss team in the conference West Virginia before clashing on December 5. WVU will not sweep both of them, so the conference title will be decided in Pittsburgh, and I believe Cincinnati loses their undefeated season there.
The Big Ten pseudo-championship game happens this week as Iowa visits Ohio State with the Rose Bowl on the line. My pick on this game is below. The Mountain West will also be decided this week as TCU battles Utah. The craziest race left is in the Pac-10, where Oregon and Arizona hold a one loss advantage on Stanford, USC, and Oregon State. Arizona and Oregon play most of the contenders in their last three games, so expect on of them to take care of business and wrap up the Rose Bowl berth. The SEC already has Florida and Alabama in the championship game, and as of today I would say Alabama has the inside track, but you can never ever count out Mr. Tebow. With a few weeks left, there are a lot of teams still in the mix for these BCS berths, but the first will be officially set this weekend and things will clarify from there.
One final note before we return to BCS bowl projections and that is the reinstatement of LaGarrette Blount. As you probably recall, Blount was suspended for the remainder of his senior season after taking a swing at a Boise State player after the Ducks lost their first game of the season. How fitting is it that coming out of Oregon's second loss of the season two months later, Blount has completed all the necessary requirements to rejoin the team according to Oregon and the Pac-10 Conference. While it seemed unlikely in September when the season started with an unpleasant bang, Blount has become the ultimate story of redemption and forgiveness in college football this season. While this very weekly article called for him to stay completely out of college football many weeks ago, I will retract those sentiments and admit that this is a much better result for all parties. Congratulations to Oregon for working this out and hopefully the Ducks can find a way to let Blount lead them to the Rose Bowl.
So back to the BCS Projections. It only took one week for each of my Rose Bowl teams to lose and muddy the waters, but both the Ducks and Hawkeyes have their destiny completely in their hands. Nevertheless, I see more losses in their futures and this will lead to a rematch which should actually be better than the September version. I still like Florida and Texas to run the table, and the upsets last week have made it more likely that Boise State will get a berth. There's no denying the monetary payoff of picking a Penn State or USC as an at-large this year, but the negative PR which will ensue if a two or three loss team gets selected over undefeated Boise State for the second straight year will be disasterous. Therefore I'm still sticking with the minority position and Boise State gets the placed by the bowl that sent them packing last year.
2010 BCS Bowl Projections, 4 Weeks To Go
BCS Championship - Florida vs. Texas
Orange - Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Fiesta - Miami vs. Boise State
Sugar - Alabama vs. Pittsburgh
Rose - Ohio State vs. USC
While the battle for the Potato State should be a wild one, the first game of the week has to be Friday night's West Virginia-Cincinnati showdown. We discussed Zach Collaros earlier and the backup quarterback will get the start and most of the snaps again as Tony Pike finishes his recovery. Collaros has been nothign short of fantastic running and passing, but he is helped tremendously by receivers Mardy Gilyard and Armon Binns. West Virginia has been questionable against strong passing games, which is troubling in this game. Cincinnati's defense will be looking to recover from last week's setback by feasting on banged up stars QB Jarrett Brown and RB Noel Devine. If Devine cannot go, the Mountaineers will not be able to keep the Bearcat offense off the field enough to win. As the injury report does not look promising at this point in the week and considering WVU's struggles on the road, Cincinnati rolls to a 20 point win.
The second game of the week is as close as the Mountain West will get to a championship game as 5-0 Utah heads to 5-0 TCU. Now BYU is not quite out of the mix if Utah wins, but these two teams have been the most dominant conference teams. Utah has run the table twice and is the only representative of the MWC to go to the BCS, but the Utes are not looking to share that honor with TCU. Utah comes in on a six game winning streak and a relatively new freshman starting QB Jordan Wynn. Wynn needs his pair of running backs Eddie Wide and Sausan Shakerin. TCU has a solid offense, but the real story is the defense, which will be tougher than anything Wynn has ever seen, especially in a hostile Texas environment. On the other side of the ball, the Utah defense will need to stack up on the front and hope that their line does what no other team has been able to do: stop the Horned Frog rushing attack. QB Andy Dalton as well as a trio of running backs will try to wear down the Utes defense. Look for Joseph Turner to lead the way as the Horned Frogs win a very competitive 7 point game.
The top game of the week is the Big Ten Championship as Iowa visits Ohio State. Iowa has been the road warriors, sweeping arguably the toughest conference road schedule in the country so far at Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Penn State. However, for all the impressive comebacks against Wisconsin and Penn State, the Buckeyes have done them one better by completely suffocating each of those teams in blowouts. Each of these defenses has a great front four which will put pressure on the young quarterbacks each side has. The problem for Iowa is that the skill talent is just not there to deal with the pressure in Columbus now that QB Ricky Stanzi will need to watch freshman James Vandenberg take the reins. While Ohio State QB Terrelle Pryor will likely be pressured by the Iowa defensive front, Pryor has shown much more maturity since the Purdue loss and is so hard for defensive linemen to bring down in the backfield. This would be one of the best matchups in Big Ten history if Iowa were fully loaded, but sadly that's just not the case. Iowa will be very lucky to score at all against this OSU defense, while the Buckeyes will likely come up with a touchdown or two on defense if nothing else. Buckeyes to the Rose Bowl with a 24 point win.
2009 GOTW Record: 17-13
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 - Week 10
1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Florida
4. TCU
5. Cincinnati
6. Boise State
7. Georgia Tech
8. Pittsburgh
9. USC
10. Ohio State
Just Missed: Utah, Iowa, Oregon, Houston, Arizona
As it turns out, I think I will be attending both the WVU-Cincy and OSU-Iowa games this weekend thanks to both being within 2 hours of each other and on consecutive days. Wherever you may take in the action this weekend, enjoy the slight Indian summer we're enjoying before the chill of the holidays comes calling. We'll see you next week when at least one of the BCS Rose Bowl slots will be filled.
Before we get into the contenders, let's discuss why the Hawkeyes were the first to fall out. Iowa started the season by losing their superstar running back to the NFL draft a year early, then the problems compounded when starter Jewel Hampton suffered a season-ending injury in the fall practices. Already down to option number 3, the Hawkeyes suffered another loss as Adam Robinson went down two weeks ago and this left basically one true freshman Brandon Wegher and no other good options. To further exacerbate the problems, TE Tony Moeaki, OL Dace Richardson, SS Brett Greenwood, and WR Brett Greenwood all sustained injuries that knocked them out of games in October and some in November. So when the unquestioned leader QB Ricky Stanzi fell to injury in the second quarter on Saturday, the Iowa offense came to a screeching halt. Iowa barely sniffed Northwestern's end of the field and the day was lost. What this proves is that with limited talent (which is what Kirk Ferentz has to work with), there's only so much injury adversity you can overcome. The Hawkeyes are to be commended for walking a tightrope all season and playing shorthanded, but that will not comfort their fans as a dream season could very well come crashing to a halt in Columbus this Saturday. But more on that later.
In the national title race, non-BCS schools are non-factors, and even mighty TCU will be dragged down enough by the bad teams in the MWC too much in the computer ratings. With Iowa, Oregon, and LSU leaving the picture last weekend, there's only four teams with a shot to play for the national championship now. Alabama and Florida will duke it out in the SEC Championship in three weeks, while Texas plays out the string in the Big XII and Cincinnati has a monster final three games. The difference between teams like Cincinnati and teams like Iowa showed last weekend as Cincinnati continued to reap the benefits of having a great backup quarterback while Iowa could not overcome the same scenario. Cincinnati has the hardest schedule remaining of the contenders, but things are going just fine as Brian Kelly is able to bench a quarterback who was a legitimate Heisman candidate before his injury. There's no doubt an undefeated SEC Champion and an undefeated Texas will meet in Pasadena if each stays undefeated, but things get interesting if losses happen to the top 3 teams in the current BCS Standings. If Texas loses to one of the mediocre teams left on their schedule, there's no question an undefeated Cincinnati team coming off wins against West Virginia and Pittsburgh will leap over the Longhorns. But what about the Bearcats versus a one loss SEC Champion? While it sort of depends on when the SEC Champion loses (earlier being better of course), but I think Cincinnati would play Texas if they are the only two BCS conference champions who remain undefeated.
I hold this belief in Cincinnati for multiple reasons. The voters are coming around to Cincinnati and will only do that more and more if they keep winning in the tough November schedule. The fact that Tony Pike is being benched in favor of Zach Collaros proves that Cincinnati has enough offense to get in a shootout with any of the three teams above them. While the 45 points surrendered to UCONN last weekend is troubling when comparing defenses, the Bearcats have been solid the rest of the season. Although Alabama or Florida would be coming off a massive win, Cincinnati would presumably be coming off a win against a possible Top 5 opponent on the road in Pittsburgh. While the SEC has won the past three BCS titles, it would be very upsetting to see a BCS Conference team go undefeated and not make the championship, hence I suspect voters would overcompensate on behalf of the Bearcats against a one-loss SEC Champion. So Cincinnati only has to cheer for one more loss to be in the driver's seat for the BCS Championship. Unfortunately for Cincinnati, this does not seem likely to happen. That's why we play the games though!
So with the pecking order in the BCS established, now is a fantastic time to review all the conference races coming to a close in two or three weeks. In the ACC, it looks like Clemson will be able to finish off the two lower-tier ACC teams left on their schedule to meet Georgia Tech in December. One has to figure Georgia Tech wins that matchup. The Big XII South is all Texas now barring two incredible losses, but the North is completely up for grabs. Expect the winner of Kansas State and Nebraska to meet Texas, but the Longhorns should finish undefeated to atone for last year's diappointment. The Big East has somehow backloaded their schedule yet again, as undefeated Cincinnati and Pittsburgh each have to deal with the only one-loss team in the conference West Virginia before clashing on December 5. WVU will not sweep both of them, so the conference title will be decided in Pittsburgh, and I believe Cincinnati loses their undefeated season there.
The Big Ten pseudo-championship game happens this week as Iowa visits Ohio State with the Rose Bowl on the line. My pick on this game is below. The Mountain West will also be decided this week as TCU battles Utah. The craziest race left is in the Pac-10, where Oregon and Arizona hold a one loss advantage on Stanford, USC, and Oregon State. Arizona and Oregon play most of the contenders in their last three games, so expect on of them to take care of business and wrap up the Rose Bowl berth. The SEC already has Florida and Alabama in the championship game, and as of today I would say Alabama has the inside track, but you can never ever count out Mr. Tebow. With a few weeks left, there are a lot of teams still in the mix for these BCS berths, but the first will be officially set this weekend and things will clarify from there.
One final note before we return to BCS bowl projections and that is the reinstatement of LaGarrette Blount. As you probably recall, Blount was suspended for the remainder of his senior season after taking a swing at a Boise State player after the Ducks lost their first game of the season. How fitting is it that coming out of Oregon's second loss of the season two months later, Blount has completed all the necessary requirements to rejoin the team according to Oregon and the Pac-10 Conference. While it seemed unlikely in September when the season started with an unpleasant bang, Blount has become the ultimate story of redemption and forgiveness in college football this season. While this very weekly article called for him to stay completely out of college football many weeks ago, I will retract those sentiments and admit that this is a much better result for all parties. Congratulations to Oregon for working this out and hopefully the Ducks can find a way to let Blount lead them to the Rose Bowl.
So back to the BCS Projections. It only took one week for each of my Rose Bowl teams to lose and muddy the waters, but both the Ducks and Hawkeyes have their destiny completely in their hands. Nevertheless, I see more losses in their futures and this will lead to a rematch which should actually be better than the September version. I still like Florida and Texas to run the table, and the upsets last week have made it more likely that Boise State will get a berth. There's no denying the monetary payoff of picking a Penn State or USC as an at-large this year, but the negative PR which will ensue if a two or three loss team gets selected over undefeated Boise State for the second straight year will be disasterous. Therefore I'm still sticking with the minority position and Boise State gets the placed by the bowl that sent them packing last year.
2010 BCS Bowl Projections, 4 Weeks To Go
BCS Championship - Florida vs. Texas
Orange - Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Fiesta - Miami vs. Boise State
Sugar - Alabama vs. Pittsburgh
Rose - Ohio State vs. USC
While the battle for the Potato State should be a wild one, the first game of the week has to be Friday night's West Virginia-Cincinnati showdown. We discussed Zach Collaros earlier and the backup quarterback will get the start and most of the snaps again as Tony Pike finishes his recovery. Collaros has been nothign short of fantastic running and passing, but he is helped tremendously by receivers Mardy Gilyard and Armon Binns. West Virginia has been questionable against strong passing games, which is troubling in this game. Cincinnati's defense will be looking to recover from last week's setback by feasting on banged up stars QB Jarrett Brown and RB Noel Devine. If Devine cannot go, the Mountaineers will not be able to keep the Bearcat offense off the field enough to win. As the injury report does not look promising at this point in the week and considering WVU's struggles on the road, Cincinnati rolls to a 20 point win.
The second game of the week is as close as the Mountain West will get to a championship game as 5-0 Utah heads to 5-0 TCU. Now BYU is not quite out of the mix if Utah wins, but these two teams have been the most dominant conference teams. Utah has run the table twice and is the only representative of the MWC to go to the BCS, but the Utes are not looking to share that honor with TCU. Utah comes in on a six game winning streak and a relatively new freshman starting QB Jordan Wynn. Wynn needs his pair of running backs Eddie Wide and Sausan Shakerin. TCU has a solid offense, but the real story is the defense, which will be tougher than anything Wynn has ever seen, especially in a hostile Texas environment. On the other side of the ball, the Utah defense will need to stack up on the front and hope that their line does what no other team has been able to do: stop the Horned Frog rushing attack. QB Andy Dalton as well as a trio of running backs will try to wear down the Utes defense. Look for Joseph Turner to lead the way as the Horned Frogs win a very competitive 7 point game.
The top game of the week is the Big Ten Championship as Iowa visits Ohio State. Iowa has been the road warriors, sweeping arguably the toughest conference road schedule in the country so far at Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Penn State. However, for all the impressive comebacks against Wisconsin and Penn State, the Buckeyes have done them one better by completely suffocating each of those teams in blowouts. Each of these defenses has a great front four which will put pressure on the young quarterbacks each side has. The problem for Iowa is that the skill talent is just not there to deal with the pressure in Columbus now that QB Ricky Stanzi will need to watch freshman James Vandenberg take the reins. While Ohio State QB Terrelle Pryor will likely be pressured by the Iowa defensive front, Pryor has shown much more maturity since the Purdue loss and is so hard for defensive linemen to bring down in the backfield. This would be one of the best matchups in Big Ten history if Iowa were fully loaded, but sadly that's just not the case. Iowa will be very lucky to score at all against this OSU defense, while the Buckeyes will likely come up with a touchdown or two on defense if nothing else. Buckeyes to the Rose Bowl with a 24 point win.
2009 GOTW Record: 17-13
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 - Week 10
1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Florida
4. TCU
5. Cincinnati
6. Boise State
7. Georgia Tech
8. Pittsburgh
9. USC
10. Ohio State
Just Missed: Utah, Iowa, Oregon, Houston, Arizona
As it turns out, I think I will be attending both the WVU-Cincy and OSU-Iowa games this weekend thanks to both being within 2 hours of each other and on consecutive days. Wherever you may take in the action this weekend, enjoy the slight Indian summer we're enjoying before the chill of the holidays comes calling. We'll see you next week when at least one of the BCS Rose Bowl slots will be filled.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Escaping For A While - November is For Contenders
I have the unfortunate task of heading to a family member's funeral this Friday. It is at times like these when any escape from the disappointments of life is welcome, and this Saturday, that will be a great slate of games in college football for me. While this certainly always puts things in perspective, my only lesson in this is to cherish every moment you have, whether that's watching you beloved team on the TV or spending time with relatives. But we've now hit the home stretch as the calendars turn from the middle month of the season to the final month of the season. November is a month for contenders, and we will find out quickly whether the "undefeated 7" who have escaped unscathed now for 3 weeks running will continue to stay a group of 7.
After Texas dispatched Oklahoma State like seemingly every other season in recent memory, it now seems virtually impossible for the national championship to be anything other than the SEC Champion versus the Longhorns, barring a major November upset. Thankfully such an upset has happened every year this decade in November except for 2005, when coincidentally, Texas won their national championship over USC. There will never be a single season to "break" the BCS, but if 5 or 6 of the 7 undefeated teams make it through November unscathed, the proponents of a playoff will have their perfect storm to point to for all time. One undefeated team getting left out is not such a huge deal and it's only happened once to a BCS conference champion (Auburn). Nobody is arguing Cincinnati or Iowa deserves to play in Pasadena any more than Texas and the SEC Champion. But these will be more BCS Conference champions who did everything set on their plate, and in the case of the Hawkeyes, sweeping the most difficult road schedule in the country. While a huge upset seems like something that will come for sure, the debate that could ensue if it doesn't happen would be worth the wait.
Just to be perfectly clear, the SEC Champion referred to in this scenario is not limited to Florida and Alabama. Yes LSU can still leapfrog Oregon, Cincinnati, Iowa, TCU, and Boise State with wins this weekend over Alabama and a revenge win over Florida. This may not seem fair to outsiders, but until the SEC Champion is knocked off in a national championship game, that conference essentially has the benefit of the doubt. So if the Bayou Bengals come up with the upset this weekend, they cannot be counted out in the national title picture unlike pretty much everyone beneath them in the BCS Standings. Now if we could only get the SEC officials to play nice and not become major factors in these games, we might have less of a beef with an LSU jumping so many undefeated teams.
Although each of the undefeated seven has a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way, each team has one game that stands out as the most difficult game or biggest trap game remaining. On November 6 we begin with Boise State's greatest test left, a road game at Louisiana Tech. Yes I'm serious, this is trap game material if nothing else. This Saturday brings us Alabama's biggest test in the Saban Bowl as LSU comes calling. Then we move to November 14, where Iowa faces a huge road test again in Columbus. The much anticipated Utah-TCU game will also be played that day, which is likely all that stands between the Horned Frogs and perfection. On Thanksgiving the Longhorns take on their heated rival Texas A&M. Then the final week of the season on December 5 will bring Florida's bigges test in the SEC Championship (yes they have already won the East) and Cincinnati will travel to Pittsburgh for what could be the Big East title game. West Virginia lost their undefeated season and national championship hopes in 2007 on a December weekend in Pittsburgh, so do not sleep on this game. Other than Texas and Boise State, each of these teams could lose the games listed and it would not surprise many people.
If you flipped through your TV dial in October and said "what in the world are they wearing?" about a college or pro football team, you would not be alone. Apparently retro or alternative jerseys are the in vogue thing in 2009, as some of the most tradition-laden programs have pulled stunts on par with Notre Dame green jerseys or Oregon's weekly crimes against fashion. Of course when Oregon is stomping through USC and on their way to the first non-USC Pac-10 championship since 2001, why not emulate the Ducks? It was cute when Tennessee wore the black jerseys. It was questionable when Georgia threw away their red helmet tradition for black helmets and pants. Now the announcement has come out that Ohio State will wear retro alternative uniforms for the Michigan game. Ohio State? Really? I promise if we see Penn State putting words or a logo on their uniforms, we are at the end of days. One can only hope these uniforms are more motivated out of respect for history (as Ohio State says they are celebrating the 1954 national champion Buckeyes and Notre Dame with the green jersey history), but it seems more like a silly marketing ploy.
With November comes the perennial BCS bowl projections. With the exception of craziness in 2007, we've been able to accuratley project the BCS Bowls the past 5 seasons. This week I'll explain the process for you so that you may be able to follow along with less explanation in later weeks. This year is the fourth year the BCS Championship game gets the top two ranked teams in the final BCS Standings. As of right now, that looks like #1 Florida, the SEC Champion, and #2 Texas, the Big XII Champion. This leaves the champions of the remaining BCS Conferences as 4 more automatic qualifiers: Cincinnati (Big East), Iowa (Big Ten), Oregon (Pac-10), and Georgia Tech (AcC). Then the top rated non-BCS School in the Top 12 is also awarded an automatic berth, which will be TCU this season. Three at-large berths remain assuming no BCS conference non-champion ends up in the number 3 of number 4 slot, which would entitle that team to an automatic berth. I don't see that happening with all the undefeated teams. So the pool of at large teams could include teams like Notre Dame, but it certainly will include Boise State, Alabama, and other top 12 teams.
The Pac-10 and Big Ten champs get slotted into the Rose Bowl automatically, so Oregon and Iowa go there. The ACC Champion heads to the Orange Bowl, so Georgia Tech is headed to Miami. The Sugar Bowl lost their SEC Champion, so they get first selection of the remaining teams, followed by the Fiesta Bowl who lost Texas. Then the bowls pick in reverse order of chronological order of the games to fill the remaining slots, which is Orange, Fiesta, Sugar in 2010. In other words, the selection order in this mock up will be Sugar - Fiesta - Orange - Fiesta - Sugar. The Sugar Bowl will definitely want the SEC Runner-Up and will take Alabama off the board. The Fiesta Bowl will want to grab two of the undefeated teams left if all three are on the board, so I suspect they will grab Cincinnati. The Orange Bowl will take the best team available, that being TCU. Then the Fiesta will set up a battle of undefeated teams by taking Boise State. This leaves an interesting conundrum for the Sugar Bowl. Will they take USC, Notre Dame, or some lesser known program. It's already stretching it putting two non-BCS Schools in, so I suspect the USC head to head win will lock Notre Dame out of the BCS even if they are eligible. USC to the Sugar.
2010 BCS Bowl Projections, 5 Weeks To Go
BCS Championship - Florida vs. Texas
Orange - Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Fiesta - Cincinnati vs. Boise State
Sugar - Alabama vs. USC
Rose - Iowa vs. Oregon
With that tasty set of bowl games set up, let's turn to the games of the week. The top two games of the week are easy but there are a lot of contenders for this opening slot. I'm giving the nod to Navy at Notre Dame. While there is no streak of Notre Dame wins on the line anymore, this series is a lot more fun now that it is competitive. Each of these teams has something to play for, as Navy seeks bowl eligibility and Notre Dame hopes to keep BCS Bowl hopes alive. Navy is again a triple option attack which is very hard to prepare for, so look for Ricky Dobbs to have a much bigger game than he had last year against the Irish. When Notre Dame has the ball, look for the emerging passing attack to be even better with the return of WR Michael Floyd. With Jimmy Clausen already putting up big numbers with one star receiver in Golden Tate, look for Navy to be very hard-pressed to keep Notre Dame from passing all over the field. If there's one thing that may shift this game, it is the ball control nature of the triple option. Notre Dame stopped it last year, but this is a much better Navy team than ever before, evidenced by tough play all season long. While Navy is tricky, this Notre Dame team is just too talented to not outscore this Navy offense. Irish win by 14.
The second game of the week is Terrelle Pryor's homecoming to Pennsylvania as Ohio State goes to Penn State. This game will hopefully finally tell us who is the second-best team in the Big Ten and just who of these teams is legitimate. Penn State has lost their only relevant game to Iowa, while Ohio State's most impressive win is a defensive fueled blowout of Wisconsin. This matchup may be the best of the weekend if you like strong defenses and playmaking quarterbacks. Daryll Clark may have been injured in the critical fourth quarter of last year's win in Columbus, but Clark is the driving force that will really challenge the secondary and linebackers of the Buckeye defense. Meanwhile, Penn State will try to follow the Purdue formula of containing and pressuring Pryor into bad decisions. Last year Pryor made the only turnover that pretty much sealed the game for PSU, so expect him to be extra careful to avoid that fate twice in a row. Expect this game to be dominated by defenses but maybe not quite like last year's 13-6 struggle. In a game of field position and defense, you have to look at special teams play. Considering OSU lost their starting kicker Aaron Pettrey for the season last week and the shakiness of the backup kickers, Penn State will win by being more successful kicking field goals. PSU by 6.
The top game of the week is the final super showdown of the regular season in the SEC, Alabama hosting LSU. LSU looked absolutely lifeless against Florida a few weeks ago, and the offense continues to sputter behind QB Jordan Jefferson. Alabama has found a solid offensive gameplan with a few accurate passes from Greg McElroy and a heavy dose of rushing with Mark Ingram. Ingram already is on some Heisman radars, but this game should be his breakout game as LSU has shown some weakness against the run. As much as you'd like to believe this game will hold all the drama of last year's epic showdown which ended with a blocked field goal, one has to imagine Alabama has been waiting to finally knock their main competition out of the race and all but lock up the match up with the Gators for the second straight season. Alabama rolls over the overrated LSU defense to a 18 point win.
2009 GOTW Record: 16-11
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 - Week 9
1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Florida
4. Cincinnati
5. Iowa
6. TCU
7. Boise State
8. Oregon
9. Penn State
10. Georgia Tech
Just Missed: LSU, Pittsburgh, USC, Ohio State, Utah
So returning to the escapism, I cannot wait to get to 3:30 Saturday afternoon so that I may enjoy swapping between the two top games of the week at will on the television. Whether the Big Ten showdown is the best or the SEC West Championship, I will be able to escape what has been a bad week and turn the page to a new week where things will hopefully be better. Whether you are just watching for fun or as an escape, enjoy the weekend slate of games. We'll see you back here next week!
After Texas dispatched Oklahoma State like seemingly every other season in recent memory, it now seems virtually impossible for the national championship to be anything other than the SEC Champion versus the Longhorns, barring a major November upset. Thankfully such an upset has happened every year this decade in November except for 2005, when coincidentally, Texas won their national championship over USC. There will never be a single season to "break" the BCS, but if 5 or 6 of the 7 undefeated teams make it through November unscathed, the proponents of a playoff will have their perfect storm to point to for all time. One undefeated team getting left out is not such a huge deal and it's only happened once to a BCS conference champion (Auburn). Nobody is arguing Cincinnati or Iowa deserves to play in Pasadena any more than Texas and the SEC Champion. But these will be more BCS Conference champions who did everything set on their plate, and in the case of the Hawkeyes, sweeping the most difficult road schedule in the country. While a huge upset seems like something that will come for sure, the debate that could ensue if it doesn't happen would be worth the wait.
Just to be perfectly clear, the SEC Champion referred to in this scenario is not limited to Florida and Alabama. Yes LSU can still leapfrog Oregon, Cincinnati, Iowa, TCU, and Boise State with wins this weekend over Alabama and a revenge win over Florida. This may not seem fair to outsiders, but until the SEC Champion is knocked off in a national championship game, that conference essentially has the benefit of the doubt. So if the Bayou Bengals come up with the upset this weekend, they cannot be counted out in the national title picture unlike pretty much everyone beneath them in the BCS Standings. Now if we could only get the SEC officials to play nice and not become major factors in these games, we might have less of a beef with an LSU jumping so many undefeated teams.
Although each of the undefeated seven has a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way, each team has one game that stands out as the most difficult game or biggest trap game remaining. On November 6 we begin with Boise State's greatest test left, a road game at Louisiana Tech. Yes I'm serious, this is trap game material if nothing else. This Saturday brings us Alabama's biggest test in the Saban Bowl as LSU comes calling. Then we move to November 14, where Iowa faces a huge road test again in Columbus. The much anticipated Utah-TCU game will also be played that day, which is likely all that stands between the Horned Frogs and perfection. On Thanksgiving the Longhorns take on their heated rival Texas A&M. Then the final week of the season on December 5 will bring Florida's bigges test in the SEC Championship (yes they have already won the East) and Cincinnati will travel to Pittsburgh for what could be the Big East title game. West Virginia lost their undefeated season and national championship hopes in 2007 on a December weekend in Pittsburgh, so do not sleep on this game. Other than Texas and Boise State, each of these teams could lose the games listed and it would not surprise many people.
If you flipped through your TV dial in October and said "what in the world are they wearing?" about a college or pro football team, you would not be alone. Apparently retro or alternative jerseys are the in vogue thing in 2009, as some of the most tradition-laden programs have pulled stunts on par with Notre Dame green jerseys or Oregon's weekly crimes against fashion. Of course when Oregon is stomping through USC and on their way to the first non-USC Pac-10 championship since 2001, why not emulate the Ducks? It was cute when Tennessee wore the black jerseys. It was questionable when Georgia threw away their red helmet tradition for black helmets and pants. Now the announcement has come out that Ohio State will wear retro alternative uniforms for the Michigan game. Ohio State? Really? I promise if we see Penn State putting words or a logo on their uniforms, we are at the end of days. One can only hope these uniforms are more motivated out of respect for history (as Ohio State says they are celebrating the 1954 national champion Buckeyes and Notre Dame with the green jersey history), but it seems more like a silly marketing ploy.
With November comes the perennial BCS bowl projections. With the exception of craziness in 2007, we've been able to accuratley project the BCS Bowls the past 5 seasons. This week I'll explain the process for you so that you may be able to follow along with less explanation in later weeks. This year is the fourth year the BCS Championship game gets the top two ranked teams in the final BCS Standings. As of right now, that looks like #1 Florida, the SEC Champion, and #2 Texas, the Big XII Champion. This leaves the champions of the remaining BCS Conferences as 4 more automatic qualifiers: Cincinnati (Big East), Iowa (Big Ten), Oregon (Pac-10), and Georgia Tech (AcC). Then the top rated non-BCS School in the Top 12 is also awarded an automatic berth, which will be TCU this season. Three at-large berths remain assuming no BCS conference non-champion ends up in the number 3 of number 4 slot, which would entitle that team to an automatic berth. I don't see that happening with all the undefeated teams. So the pool of at large teams could include teams like Notre Dame, but it certainly will include Boise State, Alabama, and other top 12 teams.
The Pac-10 and Big Ten champs get slotted into the Rose Bowl automatically, so Oregon and Iowa go there. The ACC Champion heads to the Orange Bowl, so Georgia Tech is headed to Miami. The Sugar Bowl lost their SEC Champion, so they get first selection of the remaining teams, followed by the Fiesta Bowl who lost Texas. Then the bowls pick in reverse order of chronological order of the games to fill the remaining slots, which is Orange, Fiesta, Sugar in 2010. In other words, the selection order in this mock up will be Sugar - Fiesta - Orange - Fiesta - Sugar. The Sugar Bowl will definitely want the SEC Runner-Up and will take Alabama off the board. The Fiesta Bowl will want to grab two of the undefeated teams left if all three are on the board, so I suspect they will grab Cincinnati. The Orange Bowl will take the best team available, that being TCU. Then the Fiesta will set up a battle of undefeated teams by taking Boise State. This leaves an interesting conundrum for the Sugar Bowl. Will they take USC, Notre Dame, or some lesser known program. It's already stretching it putting two non-BCS Schools in, so I suspect the USC head to head win will lock Notre Dame out of the BCS even if they are eligible. USC to the Sugar.
2010 BCS Bowl Projections, 5 Weeks To Go
BCS Championship - Florida vs. Texas
Orange - Georgia Tech vs. TCU
Fiesta - Cincinnati vs. Boise State
Sugar - Alabama vs. USC
Rose - Iowa vs. Oregon
With that tasty set of bowl games set up, let's turn to the games of the week. The top two games of the week are easy but there are a lot of contenders for this opening slot. I'm giving the nod to Navy at Notre Dame. While there is no streak of Notre Dame wins on the line anymore, this series is a lot more fun now that it is competitive. Each of these teams has something to play for, as Navy seeks bowl eligibility and Notre Dame hopes to keep BCS Bowl hopes alive. Navy is again a triple option attack which is very hard to prepare for, so look for Ricky Dobbs to have a much bigger game than he had last year against the Irish. When Notre Dame has the ball, look for the emerging passing attack to be even better with the return of WR Michael Floyd. With Jimmy Clausen already putting up big numbers with one star receiver in Golden Tate, look for Navy to be very hard-pressed to keep Notre Dame from passing all over the field. If there's one thing that may shift this game, it is the ball control nature of the triple option. Notre Dame stopped it last year, but this is a much better Navy team than ever before, evidenced by tough play all season long. While Navy is tricky, this Notre Dame team is just too talented to not outscore this Navy offense. Irish win by 14.
The second game of the week is Terrelle Pryor's homecoming to Pennsylvania as Ohio State goes to Penn State. This game will hopefully finally tell us who is the second-best team in the Big Ten and just who of these teams is legitimate. Penn State has lost their only relevant game to Iowa, while Ohio State's most impressive win is a defensive fueled blowout of Wisconsin. This matchup may be the best of the weekend if you like strong defenses and playmaking quarterbacks. Daryll Clark may have been injured in the critical fourth quarter of last year's win in Columbus, but Clark is the driving force that will really challenge the secondary and linebackers of the Buckeye defense. Meanwhile, Penn State will try to follow the Purdue formula of containing and pressuring Pryor into bad decisions. Last year Pryor made the only turnover that pretty much sealed the game for PSU, so expect him to be extra careful to avoid that fate twice in a row. Expect this game to be dominated by defenses but maybe not quite like last year's 13-6 struggle. In a game of field position and defense, you have to look at special teams play. Considering OSU lost their starting kicker Aaron Pettrey for the season last week and the shakiness of the backup kickers, Penn State will win by being more successful kicking field goals. PSU by 6.
The top game of the week is the final super showdown of the regular season in the SEC, Alabama hosting LSU. LSU looked absolutely lifeless against Florida a few weeks ago, and the offense continues to sputter behind QB Jordan Jefferson. Alabama has found a solid offensive gameplan with a few accurate passes from Greg McElroy and a heavy dose of rushing with Mark Ingram. Ingram already is on some Heisman radars, but this game should be his breakout game as LSU has shown some weakness against the run. As much as you'd like to believe this game will hold all the drama of last year's epic showdown which ended with a blocked field goal, one has to imagine Alabama has been waiting to finally knock their main competition out of the race and all but lock up the match up with the Gators for the second straight season. Alabama rolls over the overrated LSU defense to a 18 point win.
2009 GOTW Record: 16-11
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 - Week 9
1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Florida
4. Cincinnati
5. Iowa
6. TCU
7. Boise State
8. Oregon
9. Penn State
10. Georgia Tech
Just Missed: LSU, Pittsburgh, USC, Ohio State, Utah
So returning to the escapism, I cannot wait to get to 3:30 Saturday afternoon so that I may enjoy swapping between the two top games of the week at will on the television. Whether the Big Ten showdown is the best or the SEC West Championship, I will be able to escape what has been a bad week and turn the page to a new week where things will hopefully be better. Whether you are just watching for fun or as an escape, enjoy the weekend slate of games. We'll see you back here next week!
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