Settling in for a game at Nippert stadium, located right in the heart of Cincinnati, Ohio, you realize this is where real college football is played. The Bearcats definitely play third fiddle to the well-known professional sports teams in this city, but yet the UC campus pulls off a sense of community in the middle of that hustle and bustle. This may be BCS football, but it is far from the corporate glitzy giants in nearby Knoxville, Columbus, and Ann Arbor. A perfect balance of big-time big city and small town college football, Cincinnati is a great place to see a football game. On tonight's docket we have a pre-Halloween bash between South Florida (6-2, 1-2 Big East) and Cincinnati (5-2, 1-1 Big East). Neither team can afford another loss if they wish to have any hope of a BCS bowl, which would be a first for either program.
Pre-game festivities at UC include the Cincinnati band playing on the campus green. This week the theme of the halftime show is obvious, great Halloween music. Playing old time hits like "The Monster Mash," the band knew how to get the crowd in the mood for Halloween and good football. With the pregame still going on strong, I made my way into Nippert Stadium to see the warm-ups.
These teams look pretty motivated coming off disappointing losses. It's always easy to get back up off the mat when it's a nationally-televised game 5 days later, and I saw no sagging shoulders. Both teams should come out strong. I've never seen a home team come out to fireworks in all the games I have attended, but that's exactly what UC does, shooting quite a few blasts of red fireworks from the field as they run across the field toward the crazed student section. Tonight is "black-out" night in Nippert, and the fans have done a nice job filling the stands on a weeknight with a sea of black. At least it will be easy to see the bright green on the USF family and friends, and it would be impossible to lose an actual Bulls player in their all-white jerseys.
The first quarter begins, and the Bearcats start with the ball first. A drive that starts from the 26-yard line, Cincinnati started out balanced and got a nice third-down pass from QB Tony Pike to convert their first third-down. However, a fumble two plays later forced by CB Tyller Roberts was recovered by USF on the 50 yard line. On the Bulls' first third down, pressure forced a bad decision by QB Matt Grothe, who was intercepted and the big return by CB Mike Mickens took it all the way to the USF 14. Cincinnati took four plays to drive it in, but the red zone offense was clicking and RB John Goebel ran it in from two yards out for his fifth touchdown of the season to make it UC 7 - USF 0.
On the ensuing possession, USF wasted no time, going 81 yards in four plays over only 1:37 on the clock, highlighted by an amazing 48 yard grab around midfield. RB Mo Plancher picked up the 1-yard touchdown run, making it USF 7 - UC 7.
Cincinnati came back with a nick kick return to start the next drive at the UC 36. Cincinnati overcame a holding penalty with a 48 yard pass to WR Mardy Gilyard, leading into a 32 yard field goal by PK Jake Rogers. UC 10 - USF 7.
The Bulls survived a 4th-and-1 on the next possession on their end of the field and started driving down the field again into the second quarter. Once they got into Bearcat territory, the defense stiffened and forced a punt, putting UC on their own 9 yard line. Cincinnati brought out the hurry-up offense and it really put the Bulls defense on their heels, as Cincinnati produced five straight first downs on five consecutive plays and capped the drive with a 26-yard touchdown pass from QB Tony Pike to WR Mardy Gilyard. UC 17 - USF 7.
The Bulls converted one first down on the next possession, but brought out the punt team for only the second time tonight. Cincinnati's offense kept on grinding though, using an aerial assault on the USF defense to drive all the way to the USF 19 before a well-timed interception, SS Carlton Williams returned the ball to the UC 43. Still on a crucial third down, the tip ball drill came in handy as the Bearcats tipped a Matt Grothe pass into the air and found the interception by DE Lamonte Nelms. With time winding down below a minute in the half, Cincinnati again tried the air assault but fumbled the ball after a 33 yard reception at the USF 25. The Bulls were content to run out the remaining seconds on the half. HALFTIME SCORE: CINCINNATI 17 - SOUTH FLORIDA 7.
HALFTIME THOUGHTS - After disappointing with a narrow win against Rutgers and a disappearing act at Connecticut, Cincinnati has come out firing on all cylinders tonight with 227 yards passing and 281 for the half (averaging 270 in the air and 403 overall per game to date). South Florida has to find some way to get pressure on QB Tony Pike without letting him run out of the pocket and bust big plays. There's not a whole lot going wrong on Cincinnati's end, but a few penalties at bad times could be making this game closer than it looks. At this point, I'm calling for a better effort out of USF as they keep churning yards on the ground, but Cincinnati looks like they have too much for this Bulls team tonight.
Thankfully for the Bulls, they do get the ball to start the second half. Unfortunately for them, the ball went ten yards backwards after one first down, and USF punted away to put Cincinnati in good field position at their own 41. Cincinnati also started the first half going backwards and punting, setting up USF on their own 42. Could this be an omen of things to come or just like the first half when both teams sputtered initially then got rolling quickly? The Bulls ended up moving the ball a little bit and PK Maikon Bonani hit a clutch 49 yard field goal to cut the deficit to a touchdown. USF 10 - UC 17.
The Cincinnati offense again tried the deep ball on the following possession, but came up enmpty this time around. Another punt gave the Bulls decent field position at their 23 yard line. The Bulls really started grinding out some yards before another tip drill juggle of a pass was intercepted by DB DeAngelo Smith near midfield. The Cincinnati offensive line is now showing they can run block as well as pass protect, as Cincinnati has started moving the ball on the ground for the first time all night. Still, the drive stalled on the USF 45 and a punt bounced into the endzone for a touchback. Clearly USF has the momentum, but the time has to be now for a big game-changing drive. QB Matt Grothe does not seem to be the same poised leader tonight as he has been, failing to connect on passes and not finding enough running room to prevent another USF punt. Cincinnati is thriving off the play of the defense and now the offense keeps moving the ball little by little to grind down the third-quarter clock. A spectacular "sportscenter" grab ended the third quarter with the Bearcats driving in the USF red zone. UC 17 - USF 10.
Going into the fourth quarter, the key stat of the game is third-down conversions: UC is 5 of 9, USF is struggling at 3 of 11. Most of the yardage tonight is through the air for the Bearcats, and a 1-yard touchdown pass to DE Connor Barwin (not a target I think USF counted on). UC 24 - USF 10.
Even though there's still over fourteen minutes left, the Bulls must have some urgency to get back into this game. Starting from their own 20 yard line, USF quarterback Matt Grothe finally found that busted play to run on and found 40 yards of daylight to push the Bulls into Cincinnati territory. Once in the redzone, the offense stalled out and could not convert, leaving Cincinnati the ball on their own 5 yard line but with a 14-point margin and only 8 minutes to victory. Cincinnati could do nothing backed up in their end zone, so South Florida would get another opportunity to drive on Cincinnati's side of the field. Again a drive stalled in the redzone, and Cincinnati really took a deathgrip on the game with 4:44 left. After a long run on first down, the USF defenders look tired and beaten. Cincinnati runs the clock out, FINAL SCORE CINCINNATI 24, SOUTH FLORIDA 10.
POSTGAME - Going down to the postgame news conference, a very laid back quartet of Bearcats explained some things about the game. DE Connor Barwin definitely had serious joy reliving his days at tight end when he scored on a 1-yard touchdown pass, saying he was determined to not let the opportunity pass him by. QB Tony Pike said that he was too sore in the fourth quarter to continue after putting up brilliant numbers, but by that point the Bearcats were taking direct snaps anyways, which Pike cannot handle with his cast on the arm after the Connecticut game. WR Mardy Gilyard said the team really hates coming in on a short week and practicing Sunday after a bad loss, but it gave them a chance to atone and they had 3 days of practice which led them to victory. Coach Brian Kelley confirmed that he thought the game was won on Sunday by the players responding to the loss with an excellent practice. Kelley said his offensive line and defense played their best games of the year, and he hopes they can keep the intensity up for a tough road game next weekend at West Virginia. After going an abysmal 0 for 15 on third downs in the previous week, the key improvement was getting that statistic back up 50%. Kelley also said it was a lot easier to motivate his players to recover thanks to the Thursday night national television audience coming to their home stadium.
Looking ahead, South Florida is officially out of the conference chase at 1-3. Still, the Bulls are bowl-eligible and will want to recover from tonight to play well at home in 2 weeks against Rutgers, as UCONN and WVU await at the end of November. As for the Bearcats, they still have their destiny in their own hands, as the only undefeated in conference play is their next opponent WVU. The Mountaineers are a tough out at home, but the way Cincinnati played tonight, there's no doubt the Bearcats can get it done.
One final note before I log off for the evening. You always meet fascinating people on these trips in the press box, and tonight I had the pleasure of meeting Joe Connor, a San Diego native traveling across country again this fall in a sponsored biodiesel car. He takes in many sporting events as he crosses the country extolling the value of biodiesel fuels. As our country still faces an energy and oil crisis, it's very good to see people like Joe having fun at college events while also working on a good cause for the Los Angeles Times. You can check out his website at greenpowersportstour.com, and perhaps we will cross paths again one day Mr. Connor.
With that said, Happy Halloween and enjoy the great slate of games this weekend! We'll see you next Tuesday!
Pulse of the town is a feature piece on the game day experience, recapping the game and finding out how different fan bases party every weekend. After all, without the fans we are nothing!
Friday, October 31, 2008
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Trick or Treat: Top Contenders Want To Know
Ghosts and Ghouls unite! There's free candy at every door this week, but BCS contenders cannot spend time thinking about sweet times. There's still a little over a month of work to do before the BCS lineup is set, and there will certainly be pitfalls and traps along the way. This week we begin the BCS projections, sure-fire to go wrong until December! Plus, this week we take an in-depth look at the Big East championship chase as I will be taking in an elimination game on Thursday night as South Florida travels to Cincinnati.
All of a sudden, things are stable at the top of the BCS chase. While it's not bound to last forever, Texas, Alabama, and Penn State certainly proved they are capable of passing their biggest tests by surviving a trio of tough games last Saturday. Nobody thought Texas could run the Oklahoma-Missouri-OK State-Texas Tech gauntlet, but here they stand 3-0 in the first three weeks of that run. Tough road battles remain at Tech and Kansas, but the Longhorns look more dominant than even the 2005 team that won the National Championship.
Alabama keeps getting questioned for slow second half play, but the fact is that Nick Saban has a tough bunch of kids who know how to hold onto a lead. They overcame their fierce rival Tennessee and have what it takes to down LSU and Auburn in their down years. The Joe-Pa express could not be derailed either, as PSU has overcome the two houses of horror they've faced in Big Ten play (7 straight losses to Michigan and an 0-7 record in Columbus snapped). In fact, the HD offense used Tresselball against the king of the Big Ten and will almost certainly be taking the crown from the three-time champs. The remainder of the standings were also pretty solid as teams like Oklahoma, USC, and Florida kept up their blistering paces.
No surprise, the fire now mentality in college football continues to take its deadly grasp. Following Tommy Bowden out the door is Washington's Tyrone Willingham, who has won 11 games in three and a half seasons. It's really hard to understand what has happened in Seattle. Willingham had just as much success at Notre Dame as the coaches he followed, yet could not bring the same level of play to Washington. This could be the end of the road for his coaching career, at least at the head coaching level. Look on the bright side though Tyrone, there's always a chance Lou Holtz will need a new co-host and it would be amazing to hear the two former Notre Dame coaches ham it up. U-Dub should have waited five weeks, but the firing was inevitable.
Speaking of bad things in college football, entitled fan bases need to grow up and realize what blessings they have. I'm taking aim at a fan base I am particularly well-read in, that of the Ohio State Buckeyes. Let's face it, the Buckeyes did not deserve to play for a national title last season. However, people do not give them credit for just how close the game against the far-superior talent of LSU was, in LSU's home stadium (practically). This season the Buckeyes have not lived up to lofty expectations due to offensive player struggles and especially the line play. But even after a loss to Penn State, OSU stands at 7-2, #12 in the BCS and has a very winnable finishing stretch to likely end up in another BCS bowl. If Penn State wins out, a likely berth in Pasadena for only the second time in 25 years will await the Buckeyes. Yet a local Columbus poll showed 76% of fans consider this season "a lost season." What? I know over 100 teams that would trade places with the Buckeyes right now, maybe even more. When a Rose Bowl berth and a fifth straight win against Michigan are not enough? Wake up Buckeye fans...no dynasty wins them all every year. This is a bigger problem than just this fanbase, but college football fans need to temper their expectations and enjoy what they have.
This week will be the first game I go to on behalf of SCS this season, so let's take a brief look at the Big East chase. Syracuse and Rutgers aside, any of the next six teams could end up in the BCS. South Florida has left themselves no margin for error after losses to Pittsburgh and Louisville. After a crazy week in conference play, West Virginia stands at the top at 2-0 while UCONN, Pitt, Louisville, and Cincinnati each have one conference loss. This week will separate the contenders more as WVU travels to Connecticut and USF goes to Cincinnati. It will be interesting to see how the Bearcats and Bulls come off very disappointing losses, as only one will remain in the BCS chase after this Thursday. I'll have more on the experience this time next week.
Before turning to this week's slate of games, a quick run through on how the BCS will work this season. All teams ranked in the Top 14 with at least nine wins are eligible. Conference champion affiliations include Pac-10 and Big Ten to the Rose, SEC to the Sugar, ACC to the Orange, and Big XII to the Fiesta. After the #1 and #2 teams are placed in the Championship and the conference champions are placed, the picking order in 2008 for at-large teams is as follows: the bowl who lost their conference champ and #1 team to the BCS Championship, then the bowl who lost #2, then the Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange in that order. Got all that? Let's put it to work!
At this point I project Texas and Penn State will end up undefeated, meeting in the BCS Championship. The remaining BCS conference champions will be West Virginia (Big East), USC (Pac-10, Rose Bowl), Florida (SEC, Sugar Bowl), and Florida State (ACC, Orange Bowl). The at-large pool will then include Alabama, Oklahoma, Georgia, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Utah, Boise State, Ohio State, and TCU among others. The Fiesta will want Ohio State, but will be blocked by the Rose Bowl in all likelihood. Thus, the Fiesta takes Oklahoma again. Then the Rose replaces PSU with Ohio State. This leaves the Fiesta probably grabbing Alabama for a crimson showdown. The Sugar will grab West Virginia, leaving Boise State to the Orange Bowl (assuming Utah loses). This leaves us with...
BCS Projections October 27, 2008
BCS Championship in Miami - Texas vs. Penn State
Fiesta Bowl - Oklahoma vs. Alabama
Sugar Bowl - Florida vs. West Virginia
Orange Bowl - Florida State vs. Boise State
Rose Bowl - USC vs. Ohio State
You have to admit, it looks good at the beginning of November. Now if half of it is right in December, we'll call it a success!
The third best game of the week was a tough call, but the ACC will get into the spotlight for the first time with Florida State visiting Georgia Tech. Florida State is a lot like Penn State, stepping back to glory quietly in 2008. Outside of a disappearance against Wake Forest in September, the Seminoles have an offense that is rolling behind new QB Christian Ponder and RB Antone Smith. The real story in 2008 is the vastly improved line play on both sides of the ball. This strength will be tested by a Georgia Tech team that has played very well defensively and has more than enough offensive punch as well. Georgia Tech is a game behind Virginia in the Coastal after the loss to the Cavaliers and so cannot afford another loss. Look for the new-style Yellowjacket offense to confuse the Seminole defense a little. Still, Florida State comes up with a crucial turnover late and wins by 3.
The second game of the week is Texas at Texas Tech, which sets a new record as the Longhorns have a top 3 game of the week for four weeks running now. These teams match 4-0 conference records and 8-0 overall records, but the Longhorns have survived the much tougher schedule thus far. Everybody knows what Texas and Colt McCoy bring to the table, so the key will be if Texas Tech has enough defense this season to win the big game. Crazy things have happened to the Longhorns in Lubbick before, and WR Michael Crabtree should open up some opportunities for oft-forgotten running backs Baron Batch and Shannon Woods. Although there's a lot to love about this Texas Tech team, the Longhorns do not even look worn down by the killer October gauntlet. Texas avoids the upset and all but finishes off a South division title with a 10 point win.
Florida at Georgia. Outside of the USC-OSU game, this was the one everyone looked forward to in August. While both teams have lost a conference game, each remains in the thick of the national title race. A win in the Cocktail Party (long live the name) will decide the SEC East as expected as well as eliminate another BCS Championship contender. The loser could still jump Alabama for the second SEC berth in the BCS, but Urban Meyer and Mark Richt were not hired to lose this game. Don't expect any antics of rushing the field this time, but there will be a lot of trick plays featuring talents such as WR Percy Harvin, QB Tim Tebow, RB Knowshon Moreno, and QB Matthew Stafford. Despite all the offensive firepower, the defense will be the difference. Florida has only given up 83 points all season, with 31 of those coming in the shocker loss to Ole Miss. Georgia has given up 162 points and has a lot more trouble stiffening up in the end zone. That's bad news against a team this talented. Gator chomp by 13.
2008 GOTW Record: 15-12
Last Week: 3-0
Fitz Top 10 - Week 9
1. Penn State (9-0)
2. Texas (8-0)
3. Alabama (8-0)
4. Texas Tech (8-0)
5. Oklahoma (7-1)
6. Georgia (7-1)
7. USC (6-1)
8. Florida (6-1)
9. Utah (8-0)
10. Boise State (7-0)
Just Missed: Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Tulsa, TCU, Ball State
This will be a momentous week for me yet again (seems like it's every week this football season), as I will find out some bar exam results just a few hours after I cover the UC-USF game. Wish me luck, and have a great week!
All of a sudden, things are stable at the top of the BCS chase. While it's not bound to last forever, Texas, Alabama, and Penn State certainly proved they are capable of passing their biggest tests by surviving a trio of tough games last Saturday. Nobody thought Texas could run the Oklahoma-Missouri-OK State-Texas Tech gauntlet, but here they stand 3-0 in the first three weeks of that run. Tough road battles remain at Tech and Kansas, but the Longhorns look more dominant than even the 2005 team that won the National Championship.
Alabama keeps getting questioned for slow second half play, but the fact is that Nick Saban has a tough bunch of kids who know how to hold onto a lead. They overcame their fierce rival Tennessee and have what it takes to down LSU and Auburn in their down years. The Joe-Pa express could not be derailed either, as PSU has overcome the two houses of horror they've faced in Big Ten play (7 straight losses to Michigan and an 0-7 record in Columbus snapped). In fact, the HD offense used Tresselball against the king of the Big Ten and will almost certainly be taking the crown from the three-time champs. The remainder of the standings were also pretty solid as teams like Oklahoma, USC, and Florida kept up their blistering paces.
No surprise, the fire now mentality in college football continues to take its deadly grasp. Following Tommy Bowden out the door is Washington's Tyrone Willingham, who has won 11 games in three and a half seasons. It's really hard to understand what has happened in Seattle. Willingham had just as much success at Notre Dame as the coaches he followed, yet could not bring the same level of play to Washington. This could be the end of the road for his coaching career, at least at the head coaching level. Look on the bright side though Tyrone, there's always a chance Lou Holtz will need a new co-host and it would be amazing to hear the two former Notre Dame coaches ham it up. U-Dub should have waited five weeks, but the firing was inevitable.
Speaking of bad things in college football, entitled fan bases need to grow up and realize what blessings they have. I'm taking aim at a fan base I am particularly well-read in, that of the Ohio State Buckeyes. Let's face it, the Buckeyes did not deserve to play for a national title last season. However, people do not give them credit for just how close the game against the far-superior talent of LSU was, in LSU's home stadium (practically). This season the Buckeyes have not lived up to lofty expectations due to offensive player struggles and especially the line play. But even after a loss to Penn State, OSU stands at 7-2, #12 in the BCS and has a very winnable finishing stretch to likely end up in another BCS bowl. If Penn State wins out, a likely berth in Pasadena for only the second time in 25 years will await the Buckeyes. Yet a local Columbus poll showed 76% of fans consider this season "a lost season." What? I know over 100 teams that would trade places with the Buckeyes right now, maybe even more. When a Rose Bowl berth and a fifth straight win against Michigan are not enough? Wake up Buckeye fans...no dynasty wins them all every year. This is a bigger problem than just this fanbase, but college football fans need to temper their expectations and enjoy what they have.
This week will be the first game I go to on behalf of SCS this season, so let's take a brief look at the Big East chase. Syracuse and Rutgers aside, any of the next six teams could end up in the BCS. South Florida has left themselves no margin for error after losses to Pittsburgh and Louisville. After a crazy week in conference play, West Virginia stands at the top at 2-0 while UCONN, Pitt, Louisville, and Cincinnati each have one conference loss. This week will separate the contenders more as WVU travels to Connecticut and USF goes to Cincinnati. It will be interesting to see how the Bearcats and Bulls come off very disappointing losses, as only one will remain in the BCS chase after this Thursday. I'll have more on the experience this time next week.
Before turning to this week's slate of games, a quick run through on how the BCS will work this season. All teams ranked in the Top 14 with at least nine wins are eligible. Conference champion affiliations include Pac-10 and Big Ten to the Rose, SEC to the Sugar, ACC to the Orange, and Big XII to the Fiesta. After the #1 and #2 teams are placed in the Championship and the conference champions are placed, the picking order in 2008 for at-large teams is as follows: the bowl who lost their conference champ and #1 team to the BCS Championship, then the bowl who lost #2, then the Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange in that order. Got all that? Let's put it to work!
At this point I project Texas and Penn State will end up undefeated, meeting in the BCS Championship. The remaining BCS conference champions will be West Virginia (Big East), USC (Pac-10, Rose Bowl), Florida (SEC, Sugar Bowl), and Florida State (ACC, Orange Bowl). The at-large pool will then include Alabama, Oklahoma, Georgia, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Utah, Boise State, Ohio State, and TCU among others. The Fiesta will want Ohio State, but will be blocked by the Rose Bowl in all likelihood. Thus, the Fiesta takes Oklahoma again. Then the Rose replaces PSU with Ohio State. This leaves the Fiesta probably grabbing Alabama for a crimson showdown. The Sugar will grab West Virginia, leaving Boise State to the Orange Bowl (assuming Utah loses). This leaves us with...
BCS Projections October 27, 2008
BCS Championship in Miami - Texas vs. Penn State
Fiesta Bowl - Oklahoma vs. Alabama
Sugar Bowl - Florida vs. West Virginia
Orange Bowl - Florida State vs. Boise State
Rose Bowl - USC vs. Ohio State
You have to admit, it looks good at the beginning of November. Now if half of it is right in December, we'll call it a success!
The third best game of the week was a tough call, but the ACC will get into the spotlight for the first time with Florida State visiting Georgia Tech. Florida State is a lot like Penn State, stepping back to glory quietly in 2008. Outside of a disappearance against Wake Forest in September, the Seminoles have an offense that is rolling behind new QB Christian Ponder and RB Antone Smith. The real story in 2008 is the vastly improved line play on both sides of the ball. This strength will be tested by a Georgia Tech team that has played very well defensively and has more than enough offensive punch as well. Georgia Tech is a game behind Virginia in the Coastal after the loss to the Cavaliers and so cannot afford another loss. Look for the new-style Yellowjacket offense to confuse the Seminole defense a little. Still, Florida State comes up with a crucial turnover late and wins by 3.
The second game of the week is Texas at Texas Tech, which sets a new record as the Longhorns have a top 3 game of the week for four weeks running now. These teams match 4-0 conference records and 8-0 overall records, but the Longhorns have survived the much tougher schedule thus far. Everybody knows what Texas and Colt McCoy bring to the table, so the key will be if Texas Tech has enough defense this season to win the big game. Crazy things have happened to the Longhorns in Lubbick before, and WR Michael Crabtree should open up some opportunities for oft-forgotten running backs Baron Batch and Shannon Woods. Although there's a lot to love about this Texas Tech team, the Longhorns do not even look worn down by the killer October gauntlet. Texas avoids the upset and all but finishes off a South division title with a 10 point win.
Florida at Georgia. Outside of the USC-OSU game, this was the one everyone looked forward to in August. While both teams have lost a conference game, each remains in the thick of the national title race. A win in the Cocktail Party (long live the name) will decide the SEC East as expected as well as eliminate another BCS Championship contender. The loser could still jump Alabama for the second SEC berth in the BCS, but Urban Meyer and Mark Richt were not hired to lose this game. Don't expect any antics of rushing the field this time, but there will be a lot of trick plays featuring talents such as WR Percy Harvin, QB Tim Tebow, RB Knowshon Moreno, and QB Matthew Stafford. Despite all the offensive firepower, the defense will be the difference. Florida has only given up 83 points all season, with 31 of those coming in the shocker loss to Ole Miss. Georgia has given up 162 points and has a lot more trouble stiffening up in the end zone. That's bad news against a team this talented. Gator chomp by 13.
2008 GOTW Record: 15-12
Last Week: 3-0
Fitz Top 10 - Week 9
1. Penn State (9-0)
2. Texas (8-0)
3. Alabama (8-0)
4. Texas Tech (8-0)
5. Oklahoma (7-1)
6. Georgia (7-1)
7. USC (6-1)
8. Florida (6-1)
9. Utah (8-0)
10. Boise State (7-0)
Just Missed: Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Tulsa, TCU, Ball State
This will be a momentous week for me yet again (seems like it's every week this football season), as I will find out some bar exam results just a few hours after I cover the UC-USF game. Wish me luck, and have a great week!
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
Contenders Culled by First BCS Rankings
As a nice chill sweeps the nation and the leaves start covering yards, a similar chill has come over 90% of the Division I-A universe, at least as far as the national championship goes. It has been fairly impossible to jump into the BCS Championship from outside the top 10-12 of the initial BCS Standings. By this point in the season, contenders have been separated from pretenders to a large degree, and computer rankings finally show which teams have a lot of impressing work to do on poll voters in October and November. Before we look to the week ahead, a quick look at the BCS contenders is warranted now that rankings are official.
There's a definite top-tier in the BCS, and it should come as no surprise that the undefeated teams leading the Big XII, SEC, and Big Ten are in this group. Texas looks like they might be good enough to run the amazing gauntlet of Oklahoma-Missouri-OK State-Texas Tech, and the Horns will definitely be in the championship if they win out. As for Alabama, the key will be avoiding the almost-certain trap game in the SEC. Considering Alabama has struggled to put away Mississippi and Kentucky, there's no guarantees against future opponents such as Tennessee or Mississippi State. Rounding out the trio is the dominant Penn State squad last seen blowing through Wisconsin and Michigan easily. Penn State faces their toughest test of the season this weekend in Columbus, a place they have not won as a Big Ten member. Out of this trio, it appears Penn State is the most likely to go undefeated. Still, Texas will still be in the mix even with a loss as long as they win the Big XII Championship. Alabama probably has no room for error in the public eye.
A second tier has come into focus now as the successors to the Championship if the top teams falter. Leading this pack is Oklahoma, who was not really hurt by the loss to Texas. Nevertheless, Oklahoma can only make the Championship if Texas stumbles twice and allows OU into the Big XII Championship. This will hurt Oklahoma's fourth-ranked computer ranking, but perhaps games againse Texas Tech and Oklahoma State will buoy the ship. Oklahoma will be a very interesting case study if Texas loses once before the end of the season. The other two second-tier teams are one-loss USC and undefeated Oklahoma State. According to the computers, USC is very overrated which makes sense given the weakness in the Pac-10. Oklahoma State is underrated and will only make the Championship if they run the table. Same for USC, but the route is very easy for the Trojans.
Finally the BCS has a third-tier, which is stacked with big names and another Big XII upstart. Texas Tech still has the meat of their schedule ahead of them in the Big XII and needs to run the table like everyone else in this group to have a chance. Florida and Georgia are still relevant in the SEC despite early losses, and their computer ratings will go up as the schedule stays tough. Finally we have the "scourge" of the BCS Championship, two-time defending runner up Ohio State. After crushing a good Michigan State team, perhaps the sleepwalking giants of the BCS will have what it takes to stop the Nittany Lion express. If that happens, OSU is at least going into the discussion again. This group of teams will be hoping for havoc at the top, as that's what needs to happen for each of them to get back in the chase.
After BYU's loss, no non-BCS conference team will get much publicity for the national championship. Utah has been solid, but even wins against TCU, BYU, and Michigan may not be enough to rise ten spots. Boise State is praying for TCU and Utah to stumble so they can hold onto the automatic at-large berth. Each of these teams fills the 11-14 spots, and they will battl eit out for wha tis likely one at-large.
This leaves the rest of the 107 teams in America. None of them have a real legitimate chance at the BCS Championship this season. The only arguable case is LSU, but it's hard to imagine them going undefeated the rest of the way out and getting enough breaks in the Pac-10 and Big Ten to jump all the necessary teams. Missouri, South Florida, Pittsburgh, etc. will all need to play their way into a BCS Bowl by winning a conference title, but there's no hope left for a national title. This leaves us with 10 contenders spread out in a relatively fair fashion given the strength of conferences this season (4 Big XII, 3 SEC, 2 Big Ten, and 1 Pac-10). The road to the Championship will have a lot of bumps and unexpected turns, but expect two of these ten in Miami in January playing for the crystal football.
Another race is beginning to take form in late October, that being the Heisman race. The quarterbacks will probably again dominate the list of finalists, with all the Big XII dominanace at the position to go with defending winner Tim Tebow. Expect two of Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford, and Graham Harrell to go to New York after Chase Daniel played himself out of contention the past two weeks. The running back position does not have clear frontrunners, but the explosive Knowshon Moreno is probably tops at this point. Everyone else to watch resides in the Big Ten, with the surprise being Iowa's Shonn Greene, who is the most consistent runner in the country thus far. Penn State's Evan Royster will be in the mix if the Nittany Lions win out, while Javon Ringer and Chris Wells are not quite off the radar screen yet. It will be surprising if any other position sends someone to New York, but perhaps one to watch is Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant. If the Cowboys stay successful, he could jump into a lot of Top 5 lists. This race changes week to week and goes with the BCS chase, so there's a long way to go yet. Still, this group of players will almost certainly produce the winner as it's been a long time since someone off the radar in October won the Heisman.
Turning to this week's games, there are again some solid battles near the top of the charts. The weekly SEC showdown again comes in at the #3 spot, as Georgia visits LSU. LSU still controls their SEC destiny, but a win here is crucial after the Florida blowout. The LSU offense has not been all that good in 2008, yet QB Jarrett Lee and WR Brandon LaFell have kept defensive secondaries busy. The real threat when playing LSU is not stopping the crazy play Les Miles always has cooked up. Georgia is battle-tested and only has one bad half against Alabama keeping them from the top of the BCS chase. The next two weeks are make or break though as the Bulldogs face LSU and Florida back-to-back. The Georgia defense is very solid and will give LSU problems. Although Georgia has some of the best talent in the country with QB Matt Stafford, RB Knowshon Moreno, and WR A.J. Green, the offensive line is dinged up and could be a problem. Still, Georgia just has too much talent to lose to this LSU team. Georgia wins a tough road battle by 7.
The second-best game of the week may take the cake for many analysts, but a battle of undefeateds in the Big XII is my #2. Oklahoma State will be a heavy underdog going to Austin after Texas dismantled Oklahoma and Missouri, but nobody can count out the Cowboys until Texas proves it on the field again. The Cowboys are an offensive juggernaut, led by underrated QB Zac Robinson. Obviously the Texas defense will try to double-team WR Dez Bryant, which should leave a lot of opportunities for other receivers on OSU, none of which have gained more than 200 yards total this season. Texas has even more stars on the offensive side, but the key to this game will be which defense shows up. Texas has proven themselves against better teams than Oklahoma State thus far, so you have to take the Longhorns at home. Texas by 17.
The best game of the week is the de facto Big Ten championship, Penn State at Ohio State. This game may determine one of the two teams we see in Miami for the BCS Championship, as either team will benefit greatly from a win in this game. Penn State has never won in Columbus as a Big Ten member in 8 tries, but these two teams always play close. Regardless, Penn State broke a streak last week of 9 straight losses to Michigan, led by QB Daryll Clark and RB Evan Royster. The Buckeyes fell off the radar after the USC loss, but this team looks a lot different now after four Terrelle Pryor starts at QB and four games with a healthy Chris Wells back in the mix. Penn State has really not played a close game, but Illinois and Purdue gave them a little trouble. Ohio State has been more dominant defensively than the Lions outside of the USC loss, and it seems like James Laurinaitis and Malcolm Jenkins really have the unit back to Silver Bullet glory in recent weeks. This Penn State offense is the best OSU has seen though. The real key will be if Ohio State's offense continues the good play finally established a week ago at East Lansing. Ohio State does more than enough defensively to win, but the Nittany Lions will stuff Chris Wells and show Terrelle Pryor his inexperience. Penn State breaks another streak with a 10 point win.
2008 GOTW Record: 12-12
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 - Week 8
1. Penn State (8-0)
2. Texas (7-0)
3. Alabama (7-0)
4. Texas Tech (7-0)
5. Oklahoma State (7-0)
6. Oklahoma (6-1)
7. USC (5-1)
8. Ohio State (7-1)
9. Florida (5-1)
10. Utah (8-0)
Just Missed: Georgia, Boise State, LSU, South Florida, Georgia Tech
It's never a bad thing when six of the eleven national title contenders (counting LSU for this) play in three big games in one Saturday. Enjoy these matchups while they last.
There's a definite top-tier in the BCS, and it should come as no surprise that the undefeated teams leading the Big XII, SEC, and Big Ten are in this group. Texas looks like they might be good enough to run the amazing gauntlet of Oklahoma-Missouri-OK State-Texas Tech, and the Horns will definitely be in the championship if they win out. As for Alabama, the key will be avoiding the almost-certain trap game in the SEC. Considering Alabama has struggled to put away Mississippi and Kentucky, there's no guarantees against future opponents such as Tennessee or Mississippi State. Rounding out the trio is the dominant Penn State squad last seen blowing through Wisconsin and Michigan easily. Penn State faces their toughest test of the season this weekend in Columbus, a place they have not won as a Big Ten member. Out of this trio, it appears Penn State is the most likely to go undefeated. Still, Texas will still be in the mix even with a loss as long as they win the Big XII Championship. Alabama probably has no room for error in the public eye.
A second tier has come into focus now as the successors to the Championship if the top teams falter. Leading this pack is Oklahoma, who was not really hurt by the loss to Texas. Nevertheless, Oklahoma can only make the Championship if Texas stumbles twice and allows OU into the Big XII Championship. This will hurt Oklahoma's fourth-ranked computer ranking, but perhaps games againse Texas Tech and Oklahoma State will buoy the ship. Oklahoma will be a very interesting case study if Texas loses once before the end of the season. The other two second-tier teams are one-loss USC and undefeated Oklahoma State. According to the computers, USC is very overrated which makes sense given the weakness in the Pac-10. Oklahoma State is underrated and will only make the Championship if they run the table. Same for USC, but the route is very easy for the Trojans.
Finally the BCS has a third-tier, which is stacked with big names and another Big XII upstart. Texas Tech still has the meat of their schedule ahead of them in the Big XII and needs to run the table like everyone else in this group to have a chance. Florida and Georgia are still relevant in the SEC despite early losses, and their computer ratings will go up as the schedule stays tough. Finally we have the "scourge" of the BCS Championship, two-time defending runner up Ohio State. After crushing a good Michigan State team, perhaps the sleepwalking giants of the BCS will have what it takes to stop the Nittany Lion express. If that happens, OSU is at least going into the discussion again. This group of teams will be hoping for havoc at the top, as that's what needs to happen for each of them to get back in the chase.
After BYU's loss, no non-BCS conference team will get much publicity for the national championship. Utah has been solid, but even wins against TCU, BYU, and Michigan may not be enough to rise ten spots. Boise State is praying for TCU and Utah to stumble so they can hold onto the automatic at-large berth. Each of these teams fills the 11-14 spots, and they will battl eit out for wha tis likely one at-large.
This leaves the rest of the 107 teams in America. None of them have a real legitimate chance at the BCS Championship this season. The only arguable case is LSU, but it's hard to imagine them going undefeated the rest of the way out and getting enough breaks in the Pac-10 and Big Ten to jump all the necessary teams. Missouri, South Florida, Pittsburgh, etc. will all need to play their way into a BCS Bowl by winning a conference title, but there's no hope left for a national title. This leaves us with 10 contenders spread out in a relatively fair fashion given the strength of conferences this season (4 Big XII, 3 SEC, 2 Big Ten, and 1 Pac-10). The road to the Championship will have a lot of bumps and unexpected turns, but expect two of these ten in Miami in January playing for the crystal football.
Another race is beginning to take form in late October, that being the Heisman race. The quarterbacks will probably again dominate the list of finalists, with all the Big XII dominanace at the position to go with defending winner Tim Tebow. Expect two of Colt McCoy, Sam Bradford, and Graham Harrell to go to New York after Chase Daniel played himself out of contention the past two weeks. The running back position does not have clear frontrunners, but the explosive Knowshon Moreno is probably tops at this point. Everyone else to watch resides in the Big Ten, with the surprise being Iowa's Shonn Greene, who is the most consistent runner in the country thus far. Penn State's Evan Royster will be in the mix if the Nittany Lions win out, while Javon Ringer and Chris Wells are not quite off the radar screen yet. It will be surprising if any other position sends someone to New York, but perhaps one to watch is Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant. If the Cowboys stay successful, he could jump into a lot of Top 5 lists. This race changes week to week and goes with the BCS chase, so there's a long way to go yet. Still, this group of players will almost certainly produce the winner as it's been a long time since someone off the radar in October won the Heisman.
Turning to this week's games, there are again some solid battles near the top of the charts. The weekly SEC showdown again comes in at the #3 spot, as Georgia visits LSU. LSU still controls their SEC destiny, but a win here is crucial after the Florida blowout. The LSU offense has not been all that good in 2008, yet QB Jarrett Lee and WR Brandon LaFell have kept defensive secondaries busy. The real threat when playing LSU is not stopping the crazy play Les Miles always has cooked up. Georgia is battle-tested and only has one bad half against Alabama keeping them from the top of the BCS chase. The next two weeks are make or break though as the Bulldogs face LSU and Florida back-to-back. The Georgia defense is very solid and will give LSU problems. Although Georgia has some of the best talent in the country with QB Matt Stafford, RB Knowshon Moreno, and WR A.J. Green, the offensive line is dinged up and could be a problem. Still, Georgia just has too much talent to lose to this LSU team. Georgia wins a tough road battle by 7.
The second-best game of the week may take the cake for many analysts, but a battle of undefeateds in the Big XII is my #2. Oklahoma State will be a heavy underdog going to Austin after Texas dismantled Oklahoma and Missouri, but nobody can count out the Cowboys until Texas proves it on the field again. The Cowboys are an offensive juggernaut, led by underrated QB Zac Robinson. Obviously the Texas defense will try to double-team WR Dez Bryant, which should leave a lot of opportunities for other receivers on OSU, none of which have gained more than 200 yards total this season. Texas has even more stars on the offensive side, but the key to this game will be which defense shows up. Texas has proven themselves against better teams than Oklahoma State thus far, so you have to take the Longhorns at home. Texas by 17.
The best game of the week is the de facto Big Ten championship, Penn State at Ohio State. This game may determine one of the two teams we see in Miami for the BCS Championship, as either team will benefit greatly from a win in this game. Penn State has never won in Columbus as a Big Ten member in 8 tries, but these two teams always play close. Regardless, Penn State broke a streak last week of 9 straight losses to Michigan, led by QB Daryll Clark and RB Evan Royster. The Buckeyes fell off the radar after the USC loss, but this team looks a lot different now after four Terrelle Pryor starts at QB and four games with a healthy Chris Wells back in the mix. Penn State has really not played a close game, but Illinois and Purdue gave them a little trouble. Ohio State has been more dominant defensively than the Lions outside of the USC loss, and it seems like James Laurinaitis and Malcolm Jenkins really have the unit back to Silver Bullet glory in recent weeks. This Penn State offense is the best OSU has seen though. The real key will be if Ohio State's offense continues the good play finally established a week ago at East Lansing. Ohio State does more than enough defensively to win, but the Nittany Lions will stuff Chris Wells and show Terrelle Pryor his inexperience. Penn State breaks another streak with a 10 point win.
2008 GOTW Record: 12-12
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 - Week 8
1. Penn State (8-0)
2. Texas (7-0)
3. Alabama (7-0)
4. Texas Tech (7-0)
5. Oklahoma State (7-0)
6. Oklahoma (6-1)
7. USC (5-1)
8. Ohio State (7-1)
9. Florida (5-1)
10. Utah (8-0)
Just Missed: Georgia, Boise State, LSU, South Florida, Georgia Tech
It's never a bad thing when six of the eleven national title contenders (counting LSU for this) play in three big games in one Saturday. Enjoy these matchups while they last.
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Halfway Home, and BCS Chaos is Looming
Another mind-boggling week of college football has passed us by, and the reshuffling of the national rankings has almost become a regular occurrence in 2008. Three of the top four teams in the nation went down in flames as the Big XII finally learned what the SEC has known for two weeks, cannibalism. While the academics of last week fell by the wayside, the traditional powers have taken over the consensus top three spots in the BCS hunt. Still, it is very hard to imagine that the BCS is going to look clean at any point this season, including the first rankings next weekend. Sure, Texas and Alabama could win out and end up with a nice twin 13-0 BCS championship, but we all know that's not really going to happen. This week, we cover the surprises of the halfway mark in the season and look ahead to the frantic finish.
LOOKING BACK
It's official now: Clemson is yet again the biggest disappointment of the year. Tommy Bowden ends a rocky decade at the helm, despite consistently leading Clemson to good seasons and bowl appearances. The problem was, Bowden had too much talent to be good and just go to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl or the like. It's stunning to see that Clemson has been title-less in the ACC for 17 years, but the football power in South Carolina has fallen on hard times. It gets no easier with Georgia Tech this week awaiting interim coach Dabo Swinney. The only real surprise is that yet again, a college football program did not have enough class to let a guy finish the season. Clemson and Bowden will still be successful, just in a separate state of mind from now on.
Speaking of the ACC, the conference has done a nice job rehabilitating their image since I ranked them the seventh best conference in college football behind the Pac-10, the Big East, and even the MWC. The emergence of Florida State alongside Wake Forest and the suddenly dynamic trio of Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina in the Coastal makes for a stretch run to watch carefully. As surprising as Clemson's fall from grace is the resurgence of the ACC, and that is a good thing for college football. We'll discuss the conference battles later in the looking forward portion of the article.
Another surprise in the first half is just how good the Big XII really is. Last year Oklahoma, Missouri, and Kansas gave quite a show in November but all missed the championship. Missouri pounding Illinois and Oklahoma rolling good teams like Cincinnati seemed to indicate the Big XII was solid again this season. Then undefeated Texas and Oklahoma State went away from home and stayed unblemished by beating these frontrunners. Even Texas Tech showed they have learned how to handle a little adversity by surviving overtime in Nebraska. While the bottom-feeders such as Iowa State may not have a match in the SEC, the upper echelon of the conference has a lot better overall depth than the SEC could hope for this season. It's not quite time to dethrone the SEC, but the Big XII established itself fully with the Cowboy and Longhorn wins.
Another surprise is the sudden power-struggle in the Big Ten, and totally from unexpected sources. Ohio State has dominated the past two seasons, winning their second and third straight conference titles in easy and outright order. The top contenders from last season were supposed to make things interesting for the Buckeyes this season, those conteders being Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan with its new spread attack. So much for that! Penn State is the clear favorite after blowing away seven weeks' worth of opponents, and Michigan State has lived up to the MArk Dantonio potential at 3-0 alongside the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes. Bottom-feeders Northwestern and Minnesota are next in line and both look more legitimate than the train wrecks at usual contenders Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa. The Big Ten has depth again, and from sources unexpected!
There are a few major disappointments to speak of briefly as well. Notwithstanding the aforementioned Clemson, Michigan, and Wisconsin, one of the biggest shockers is the absolute vanishing act that is West Virginia's offense and Auburn's offense. Two teams destined for BCS glory in 2008 are now going to be lucky just to make any top-tier bowls. Even these teams cannot match two other disappointments though. The first is Tennessee, which may finally be losing its golden touch under Phil Fulmer after a season with a surprising East division championship. The worst disappointment of the season? The lack of anything in the Pac-10, as even USC is not all that impressive after losing to mediocre Oregon State. USC could drop another game and still waltz into the BCS, so there's really nothing to look forward to in this conference chase, unless you care to wait and see which Washington team is worse.
LOOKING AHEAD
There are some great things in 2008 to look for in the back half of the season. Perennial doormats Minnesota, Duke, Vanderbilt, Stanford, North Carolina, and Northwestern are all entering the back half of the season with winning records and bowl aspirations. Anybody who watched the Indiana bowl chase last season knows exactly what kind of drama and good feelings these teams will produce for their fan bases and the nation in October and November. There really are way too many bowl games in this day and age, but one positive side-effect is an almost guaranteed post-season experience for these usual losers who keep on winning.
Another thing to watch for is six potentially great conference races. BYU and TCU start the three-way battle to bust the BCS from the MWC in 2008 on Thursday night this week, but all three are headed to good bowl games. The SEC should come down to major battles between Georgia and Florida on one side and LSU and Alabama on the other. The Big Ten is dominated by the "states," with Michigan State and Ohio State kicking off the round-robin with Penn State for the conference title this weekend. The Big East could come down to a monster Backyard Brawl between Pitt and WVU, but South Florida and Cincinnati cannot be counted out yet. The ACC is completely up for grabs between Demon Deacons, Seminoles, Hokies, Yellowjackets, and Tar Heels. This of course leaves the most compelling storyline of all, the Big XII. Kansas and Missouri should make for a good game up North, but the bloodbath in the South is what to watch as Texas, Oklahoma, OSU, and Texas Tech sort themselves out in the next month. One thing's for sure, there will be a lot to watch in the major conferences thanks to all this parity!
The final thing to watch for is another BCS explosion. Texas and USC being the only undefeateds in 2005 seems like ages ago as the Bowl Championship Series is still struggling to get the formula right. While the media and coaches begged for more human control over the formula, the unjustness of those polls lies at the heart of why no system will ever work in college football. Computers have a flawed perspective, but humans are even more flawed. It's very hard to rank these teams, and the only way everybody will be happy is a playoff. Still, no complaints here as the BCS gives us plenty of fodder as sportswriters to talk about. With as bad as the Pac-10 is this year, any undefeated MWC team or any one-loss team in another BCS conference (except for Ohio State thanks to the 35-3 debacle) deserves to play for a national title more than USC. Yet I guarantee if the Trojans win out we'll be watching Song Girls in Miami. Despite all their talent, USC will go down in flames in a national title game just like the Buckeyes of the past two years, all because no parity exists this year in the Pac-10. Mark it down now, USC loses in the BCS Championship in 2009.
With all due respect to major Big XII (Kansas at Oklahoma) and SEC (Vandy at Georgia) battles, the top three games of the week come from other parts of the country this week. The third best game of the week comes on Thursday night when BYU visits TCU. Outside a blasting from national power Oklahoma in Norman, the Horned Frogs have held their opponents to a smothering 7 points per game. TCU QB Andy Dalton is a solid anchor of the offense, but the real talents are the three-headed RB platoon of Joseph Turner, Ryan Christian, and backup QB Marcus Jackson. The real key to the game though will be whether the vaunted Horned Frog defense can hope to contain BYU and prolific passer Max Hall. BYU is exceeding all expectations and rankings for a typical BCS buster, and some are saying the MWC is good enough to justify and championship game run if BYU wins out. They have to impress against quality teams on the road though, and this is another opportunity for that. Look for BYU to win by 17.
The second game of the week is a battle to settle the primary competition to Penn State in the Big Ten, as Ohio state visits Michigan State. One compelling storyline among many is that Mark Dantonio finally gets a chance to host his old mentor Jim Tressel, but expect no hospitality on the field. Dantonio led the Buckeye defense to a national title in 2002 before bailing for Cincinnati and later MSU, and his second season in Lansing shows all the potential of the 2002 Buckeyes. Will Ohio State's rebuilt offense with QB Terrelle Pryor and RB Chris Wells be able to get the ball rolling now that they've reached the most important two games of the season? Expect this game to be quick, as the best two running backs in the conference Javon Ringer and Chris Wells take over. Michigan State has more than enough to win this game, but Ohio state is due for a big performance. Buckeyes win by 10 to set up the game of the season next week against the Nittany Lions.
The top game of the week has a familiar flair from last week, as Texas stays in the national spotlight after beating top-ranked Oklahoma. This week Missouri comes into town angry after dropping a tough home battle to Oklahoma State. The Heisman Trophy could be decided on this field between Chase Daniel of Missouri and Colt McCoy of Texas. Each gunslinger has really made an impact this season and will keep the defensive secondaries very busy. The Big XII is not all about defense this season, and you have to like Texas in a shootout with the home crowd behind them on a cool autumn night in Austin. Texas gets to hold the top billing for one more week, winning by 14.
2008 GOTW Record: 10-11
Last Week: 0-3 (ouch to upsets)
Fitz Top 10 - Week 7
1. Penn State (7-0)
2. Alabama (6-0)
3. Texas (6-0)
4. BYU (6-0)
5. Texas Tech (6-0)
6. Oklahoma (5-1)
7. Oklahoma State (6-0)
8. Missouri (5-1)
9. USC (4-1)
10. Florida (5-1)
Just Missed: Ohio State, Utah, LSU, Georgia, Boise State
LOOKING BACK
It's official now: Clemson is yet again the biggest disappointment of the year. Tommy Bowden ends a rocky decade at the helm, despite consistently leading Clemson to good seasons and bowl appearances. The problem was, Bowden had too much talent to be good and just go to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl or the like. It's stunning to see that Clemson has been title-less in the ACC for 17 years, but the football power in South Carolina has fallen on hard times. It gets no easier with Georgia Tech this week awaiting interim coach Dabo Swinney. The only real surprise is that yet again, a college football program did not have enough class to let a guy finish the season. Clemson and Bowden will still be successful, just in a separate state of mind from now on.
Speaking of the ACC, the conference has done a nice job rehabilitating their image since I ranked them the seventh best conference in college football behind the Pac-10, the Big East, and even the MWC. The emergence of Florida State alongside Wake Forest and the suddenly dynamic trio of Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina in the Coastal makes for a stretch run to watch carefully. As surprising as Clemson's fall from grace is the resurgence of the ACC, and that is a good thing for college football. We'll discuss the conference battles later in the looking forward portion of the article.
Another surprise in the first half is just how good the Big XII really is. Last year Oklahoma, Missouri, and Kansas gave quite a show in November but all missed the championship. Missouri pounding Illinois and Oklahoma rolling good teams like Cincinnati seemed to indicate the Big XII was solid again this season. Then undefeated Texas and Oklahoma State went away from home and stayed unblemished by beating these frontrunners. Even Texas Tech showed they have learned how to handle a little adversity by surviving overtime in Nebraska. While the bottom-feeders such as Iowa State may not have a match in the SEC, the upper echelon of the conference has a lot better overall depth than the SEC could hope for this season. It's not quite time to dethrone the SEC, but the Big XII established itself fully with the Cowboy and Longhorn wins.
Another surprise is the sudden power-struggle in the Big Ten, and totally from unexpected sources. Ohio State has dominated the past two seasons, winning their second and third straight conference titles in easy and outright order. The top contenders from last season were supposed to make things interesting for the Buckeyes this season, those conteders being Wisconsin, Illinois, and Michigan with its new spread attack. So much for that! Penn State is the clear favorite after blowing away seven weeks' worth of opponents, and Michigan State has lived up to the MArk Dantonio potential at 3-0 alongside the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes. Bottom-feeders Northwestern and Minnesota are next in line and both look more legitimate than the train wrecks at usual contenders Michigan, Wisconsin, and Iowa. The Big Ten has depth again, and from sources unexpected!
There are a few major disappointments to speak of briefly as well. Notwithstanding the aforementioned Clemson, Michigan, and Wisconsin, one of the biggest shockers is the absolute vanishing act that is West Virginia's offense and Auburn's offense. Two teams destined for BCS glory in 2008 are now going to be lucky just to make any top-tier bowls. Even these teams cannot match two other disappointments though. The first is Tennessee, which may finally be losing its golden touch under Phil Fulmer after a season with a surprising East division championship. The worst disappointment of the season? The lack of anything in the Pac-10, as even USC is not all that impressive after losing to mediocre Oregon State. USC could drop another game and still waltz into the BCS, so there's really nothing to look forward to in this conference chase, unless you care to wait and see which Washington team is worse.
LOOKING AHEAD
There are some great things in 2008 to look for in the back half of the season. Perennial doormats Minnesota, Duke, Vanderbilt, Stanford, North Carolina, and Northwestern are all entering the back half of the season with winning records and bowl aspirations. Anybody who watched the Indiana bowl chase last season knows exactly what kind of drama and good feelings these teams will produce for their fan bases and the nation in October and November. There really are way too many bowl games in this day and age, but one positive side-effect is an almost guaranteed post-season experience for these usual losers who keep on winning.
Another thing to watch for is six potentially great conference races. BYU and TCU start the three-way battle to bust the BCS from the MWC in 2008 on Thursday night this week, but all three are headed to good bowl games. The SEC should come down to major battles between Georgia and Florida on one side and LSU and Alabama on the other. The Big Ten is dominated by the "states," with Michigan State and Ohio State kicking off the round-robin with Penn State for the conference title this weekend. The Big East could come down to a monster Backyard Brawl between Pitt and WVU, but South Florida and Cincinnati cannot be counted out yet. The ACC is completely up for grabs between Demon Deacons, Seminoles, Hokies, Yellowjackets, and Tar Heels. This of course leaves the most compelling storyline of all, the Big XII. Kansas and Missouri should make for a good game up North, but the bloodbath in the South is what to watch as Texas, Oklahoma, OSU, and Texas Tech sort themselves out in the next month. One thing's for sure, there will be a lot to watch in the major conferences thanks to all this parity!
The final thing to watch for is another BCS explosion. Texas and USC being the only undefeateds in 2005 seems like ages ago as the Bowl Championship Series is still struggling to get the formula right. While the media and coaches begged for more human control over the formula, the unjustness of those polls lies at the heart of why no system will ever work in college football. Computers have a flawed perspective, but humans are even more flawed. It's very hard to rank these teams, and the only way everybody will be happy is a playoff. Still, no complaints here as the BCS gives us plenty of fodder as sportswriters to talk about. With as bad as the Pac-10 is this year, any undefeated MWC team or any one-loss team in another BCS conference (except for Ohio State thanks to the 35-3 debacle) deserves to play for a national title more than USC. Yet I guarantee if the Trojans win out we'll be watching Song Girls in Miami. Despite all their talent, USC will go down in flames in a national title game just like the Buckeyes of the past two years, all because no parity exists this year in the Pac-10. Mark it down now, USC loses in the BCS Championship in 2009.
With all due respect to major Big XII (Kansas at Oklahoma) and SEC (Vandy at Georgia) battles, the top three games of the week come from other parts of the country this week. The third best game of the week comes on Thursday night when BYU visits TCU. Outside a blasting from national power Oklahoma in Norman, the Horned Frogs have held their opponents to a smothering 7 points per game. TCU QB Andy Dalton is a solid anchor of the offense, but the real talents are the three-headed RB platoon of Joseph Turner, Ryan Christian, and backup QB Marcus Jackson. The real key to the game though will be whether the vaunted Horned Frog defense can hope to contain BYU and prolific passer Max Hall. BYU is exceeding all expectations and rankings for a typical BCS buster, and some are saying the MWC is good enough to justify and championship game run if BYU wins out. They have to impress against quality teams on the road though, and this is another opportunity for that. Look for BYU to win by 17.
The second game of the week is a battle to settle the primary competition to Penn State in the Big Ten, as Ohio state visits Michigan State. One compelling storyline among many is that Mark Dantonio finally gets a chance to host his old mentor Jim Tressel, but expect no hospitality on the field. Dantonio led the Buckeye defense to a national title in 2002 before bailing for Cincinnati and later MSU, and his second season in Lansing shows all the potential of the 2002 Buckeyes. Will Ohio State's rebuilt offense with QB Terrelle Pryor and RB Chris Wells be able to get the ball rolling now that they've reached the most important two games of the season? Expect this game to be quick, as the best two running backs in the conference Javon Ringer and Chris Wells take over. Michigan State has more than enough to win this game, but Ohio state is due for a big performance. Buckeyes win by 10 to set up the game of the season next week against the Nittany Lions.
The top game of the week has a familiar flair from last week, as Texas stays in the national spotlight after beating top-ranked Oklahoma. This week Missouri comes into town angry after dropping a tough home battle to Oklahoma State. The Heisman Trophy could be decided on this field between Chase Daniel of Missouri and Colt McCoy of Texas. Each gunslinger has really made an impact this season and will keep the defensive secondaries very busy. The Big XII is not all about defense this season, and you have to like Texas in a shootout with the home crowd behind them on a cool autumn night in Austin. Texas gets to hold the top billing for one more week, winning by 14.
2008 GOTW Record: 10-11
Last Week: 0-3 (ouch to upsets)
Fitz Top 10 - Week 7
1. Penn State (7-0)
2. Alabama (6-0)
3. Texas (6-0)
4. BYU (6-0)
5. Texas Tech (6-0)
6. Oklahoma (5-1)
7. Oklahoma State (6-0)
8. Missouri (5-1)
9. USC (4-1)
10. Florida (5-1)
Just Missed: Ohio State, Utah, LSU, Georgia, Boise State
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Electing A Better BCS Champion in 2008
If you live in a battleground election state, every commercial break during a football Saturday is filled with Obama this, McCain that. These advertisements do nothing but make us long for November and the end of the ads, which coincidentally brings crunch time for college football as well. In the middle of October, however, there are a lot of teams in the college football universe succeeding for the first time in a long time, much like our presidential candidates in 2008. Appealing to the Harvard-law trained fans such as Obama, academic schools have found quick success thus far. Appealing to traditionalist fans like McCain, old school powerhouses are back on the BCS Championship scene. In this election hype, let's look at the new BCS contenders.
Academics: Vanderbilt - It has been over fifty years since Vanderbilt held a national ranking and won a game while ranked. Exorcising 50 years of frustration with a backup quarterback against Auburn on Saturday proved the Commodores are for real this season. While the SEC road will get tougher, Vanderbilt will end the longest bowl drought in college football dating to 1982. QB Mackenzi Adams will probably take over the starting reins, and he has proven against Mississippi and Auburn that he can run the offense competently. The Commodores have also been trailing by a touchdown or more in every game this season, so the coaching staff has taught their kids how to get out of trouble. Keep an eye on this "geek squad" as the season continues.
Traditionalists: Alabama - Also in the SEC, we have an old school power coming back to life under Nick Saban. RB Glen Coffee is the leader of the offense, grinding out long drives and tiring out opposing defenses. Alabama has pounded top ten opposition away from home twice in Clemson and Georgia, and the Crimson Tide likes to roll to a big first half lead and then sit on it the rest of the game. What will be interesting now that Alabama is the top ranked dog in the SEC is how they handle the bullseye every week, and how they react if the Tide falls behind. With only one really tough road game left at LSU, Alabama could be the third different SEC team in the BCS Championship in three years.
Academics: Northwestern - Unlike the Commodores in Nashville, the Chicago-based Wildcats are only a decade away from great years in 1995-96 with Big Ten titles and two straight Rose Bowl appearances. Coach Pat Fitzgerald was the anchor of the defense as a linebacker ten years ago, and he has brought back the Wildcat swagger despite being out-recruited by the likes of Jim Tressel, Rich Rodriguez, Joe Paterno, and Bret Bielema. Northwestern holds a 5-0 start and the easiest schedule in the Big Ten, missing Wisconsin and Penn State. If the Wildcats defeat Michigan State at home this week, the next three weeks are the bottom-feeders of the Big Ten, perhaps leading to 9-0 when Ohio State comes to town. A win there and nobody could deny these academics their BCS due.
Traditionalists: Penn State - Outside of a 1994 dominating first year in the Big Ten, the Nittany Lions have lost the national title spark that was around 20 years ago. Thankfully they still have the coach that led them to all the success decades ago in Joe Paterno. Until this past weekend, the Nittany Lions were pouring it off offensively scoring over 40 points per game. Penn State has embarrassed quality Illinois and Oregon State squads, but the real key games are upcoming in the next three weeks with night games at Wisconsin and Ohio State surrounding a home visit from Michigan. If the Lions sweep all three games, the road is downhill to the BCS Championship.
Academics: Duke - A team that struggled to win one game the past four seasons is now 3-2 and playing well in a weak ACC. Georgia Tech set the Blue Devils out of any likely BCS contention this past weekend, but that should not take away from the dramatic turnaround. QB Thaddeus Lewis has one year of eligibility left and shows his two and a half seasons of experience as the Blue Devil offense is not a joke anymore. David Cutliffe is coaching Duke back to respectability, and in the ACC, that might mean a shocking BCS berth down the road. For those who do not believe this can happen, look at Wake Forest. The doors are open, and these academics could run right through it.
Traditionalists: Pittsburgh - The Panthers have more national championships than every school outside of Alabama, Notre Dame, USC, and Michigan. Despite a couple of BCS bowl berths in the past decade, Pittsbrugh has been an afterthought on the national scene for many years. Coach Dave Wannstedt came back to rebuild this program, and he appears to be succeeding a little slower than most expected. A win over #1 West Virginia last season redeemed a 5-7 season, and Pitt has started 4-1 this season despite a tough home opener loss to Bowling Green. A win at top-10 South Florida put Pittsburgh on the top of the Big East standings and may catapult them into BCS bowl contention. Although no conference games remain until November, watch for the Panthers to continue their resurgence.
Although both USC and Ohio State took lumps in September, each found redemption on Saturday night. USC recovered from the Oregon State shocker to rock a much better Oregon team, while Ohio State won a night game at Camp Randall Stadium, a pretty much impossible task. Both these title contenders are actaully still in the mix and will linger in the Top 10 until they lose again. If nothing else, would love to see a rematch in the Rose Bowl with Ohio State having all their cylinders running this time with QB phenom Terrelle Pryor and RB Chris Wells. Here's guessing the all-out blitz package doesn't work for the Trojans this time.
That brings us to the top three games of the week, and you know it will be good when huge games ASU-USC and Penn State-Wisconsin do not make the cut. The third best game of the week is a cross-divisional battle of Big XII undefeated teams, Oklahoma State at Missouri. Each team has an explosive offense, but the key will be which defense steps up and performs. The Cowboy defense must slow Heisman candidate QB Chase Daniel who has led Missouri to over 375 yards per game passing and a 12-2 season in 2007. The Tigers defense will need to load up in the front to slow Oklahoma State's 300 yard per game rushing attack led by RB Kendall Hunter. Normally the rushing team could win an even battle because dominating the clock and wearing out the defense makes all the difference, but Missouri has the better coaching staff and more experience in the spotlight, as well as home field advantage. Chase Daniel solidifies his Heisman lead with at least five touchdown passes, leading Missouri to a 17 point win.
The second game of the week is the weekly colossal showdown in the SEC, LSU at Florida. Last season Tim Tebow led his Gators to a dominating performance for three quarters before the Bayou Bengals scored fourteen straight points to steal a 28-24 win. The last two national champs will certainly have a lot on the line this year. LSU RB Charles Scott needs to break out in this game and dominate the tempo of the game. Look for the LSU defense to put a lot of pressure on Tebow and perhaps force a game-changing turnover. LSU wins on a crazy Les Miles play, this time by 3.
The top game of the week almost always holds this spot on the second weekend of October, that being the Red River Shootout between Oklahoma and Texas. A frontrunner for the Big XII title and the national championship will emerge in Dallas this weekend no matter who wins. Quarterbacks Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford have shed their sophomore and freshman struggles, respectively, and each is now a confident leader of the offense. Each quarterback should have another big day in Dallas. Texas offers the Sooner defense a challenge as McCoy is the leading rusher as well. In a hard-hitting contest, Oklahoma may have the advantage just by being deeper at the skill positions. Oklahoma also has the better defense by all indications, so Oklahoma wins this battle again by 10.
2008 GOTW Record: 10-8
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 - Week 5
1. Missouri (5-0)
2. Oklahoma (5-0)
3. Alabama (6-0)
4. LSU (4-0)
5. Penn State (6-0)
6. BYU (5-0)
7. Texas (5-0)
8. Texas Tech (5-0)
9. USC (3-1)
10. Ohio State (5-1)
Just Missed: Georgia, Florida, Utah, Oklahoma State, Vanderbilt
This has been a crazy year for me as a writer as everything from birth of a daughter to city-wide power outage has messed with deadlines, but this week finally did me in with a bout of stomach flu. My apologies on the late article, but all is well and I'm happy to be back discussing such a great weekend of college football with my audience. Have a great week and avoid this flu bug!
Academics: Vanderbilt - It has been over fifty years since Vanderbilt held a national ranking and won a game while ranked. Exorcising 50 years of frustration with a backup quarterback against Auburn on Saturday proved the Commodores are for real this season. While the SEC road will get tougher, Vanderbilt will end the longest bowl drought in college football dating to 1982. QB Mackenzi Adams will probably take over the starting reins, and he has proven against Mississippi and Auburn that he can run the offense competently. The Commodores have also been trailing by a touchdown or more in every game this season, so the coaching staff has taught their kids how to get out of trouble. Keep an eye on this "geek squad" as the season continues.
Traditionalists: Alabama - Also in the SEC, we have an old school power coming back to life under Nick Saban. RB Glen Coffee is the leader of the offense, grinding out long drives and tiring out opposing defenses. Alabama has pounded top ten opposition away from home twice in Clemson and Georgia, and the Crimson Tide likes to roll to a big first half lead and then sit on it the rest of the game. What will be interesting now that Alabama is the top ranked dog in the SEC is how they handle the bullseye every week, and how they react if the Tide falls behind. With only one really tough road game left at LSU, Alabama could be the third different SEC team in the BCS Championship in three years.
Academics: Northwestern - Unlike the Commodores in Nashville, the Chicago-based Wildcats are only a decade away from great years in 1995-96 with Big Ten titles and two straight Rose Bowl appearances. Coach Pat Fitzgerald was the anchor of the defense as a linebacker ten years ago, and he has brought back the Wildcat swagger despite being out-recruited by the likes of Jim Tressel, Rich Rodriguez, Joe Paterno, and Bret Bielema. Northwestern holds a 5-0 start and the easiest schedule in the Big Ten, missing Wisconsin and Penn State. If the Wildcats defeat Michigan State at home this week, the next three weeks are the bottom-feeders of the Big Ten, perhaps leading to 9-0 when Ohio State comes to town. A win there and nobody could deny these academics their BCS due.
Traditionalists: Penn State - Outside of a 1994 dominating first year in the Big Ten, the Nittany Lions have lost the national title spark that was around 20 years ago. Thankfully they still have the coach that led them to all the success decades ago in Joe Paterno. Until this past weekend, the Nittany Lions were pouring it off offensively scoring over 40 points per game. Penn State has embarrassed quality Illinois and Oregon State squads, but the real key games are upcoming in the next three weeks with night games at Wisconsin and Ohio State surrounding a home visit from Michigan. If the Lions sweep all three games, the road is downhill to the BCS Championship.
Academics: Duke - A team that struggled to win one game the past four seasons is now 3-2 and playing well in a weak ACC. Georgia Tech set the Blue Devils out of any likely BCS contention this past weekend, but that should not take away from the dramatic turnaround. QB Thaddeus Lewis has one year of eligibility left and shows his two and a half seasons of experience as the Blue Devil offense is not a joke anymore. David Cutliffe is coaching Duke back to respectability, and in the ACC, that might mean a shocking BCS berth down the road. For those who do not believe this can happen, look at Wake Forest. The doors are open, and these academics could run right through it.
Traditionalists: Pittsburgh - The Panthers have more national championships than every school outside of Alabama, Notre Dame, USC, and Michigan. Despite a couple of BCS bowl berths in the past decade, Pittsbrugh has been an afterthought on the national scene for many years. Coach Dave Wannstedt came back to rebuild this program, and he appears to be succeeding a little slower than most expected. A win over #1 West Virginia last season redeemed a 5-7 season, and Pitt has started 4-1 this season despite a tough home opener loss to Bowling Green. A win at top-10 South Florida put Pittsburgh on the top of the Big East standings and may catapult them into BCS bowl contention. Although no conference games remain until November, watch for the Panthers to continue their resurgence.
Although both USC and Ohio State took lumps in September, each found redemption on Saturday night. USC recovered from the Oregon State shocker to rock a much better Oregon team, while Ohio State won a night game at Camp Randall Stadium, a pretty much impossible task. Both these title contenders are actaully still in the mix and will linger in the Top 10 until they lose again. If nothing else, would love to see a rematch in the Rose Bowl with Ohio State having all their cylinders running this time with QB phenom Terrelle Pryor and RB Chris Wells. Here's guessing the all-out blitz package doesn't work for the Trojans this time.
That brings us to the top three games of the week, and you know it will be good when huge games ASU-USC and Penn State-Wisconsin do not make the cut. The third best game of the week is a cross-divisional battle of Big XII undefeated teams, Oklahoma State at Missouri. Each team has an explosive offense, but the key will be which defense steps up and performs. The Cowboy defense must slow Heisman candidate QB Chase Daniel who has led Missouri to over 375 yards per game passing and a 12-2 season in 2007. The Tigers defense will need to load up in the front to slow Oklahoma State's 300 yard per game rushing attack led by RB Kendall Hunter. Normally the rushing team could win an even battle because dominating the clock and wearing out the defense makes all the difference, but Missouri has the better coaching staff and more experience in the spotlight, as well as home field advantage. Chase Daniel solidifies his Heisman lead with at least five touchdown passes, leading Missouri to a 17 point win.
The second game of the week is the weekly colossal showdown in the SEC, LSU at Florida. Last season Tim Tebow led his Gators to a dominating performance for three quarters before the Bayou Bengals scored fourteen straight points to steal a 28-24 win. The last two national champs will certainly have a lot on the line this year. LSU RB Charles Scott needs to break out in this game and dominate the tempo of the game. Look for the LSU defense to put a lot of pressure on Tebow and perhaps force a game-changing turnover. LSU wins on a crazy Les Miles play, this time by 3.
The top game of the week almost always holds this spot on the second weekend of October, that being the Red River Shootout between Oklahoma and Texas. A frontrunner for the Big XII title and the national championship will emerge in Dallas this weekend no matter who wins. Quarterbacks Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford have shed their sophomore and freshman struggles, respectively, and each is now a confident leader of the offense. Each quarterback should have another big day in Dallas. Texas offers the Sooner defense a challenge as McCoy is the leading rusher as well. In a hard-hitting contest, Oklahoma may have the advantage just by being deeper at the skill positions. Oklahoma also has the better defense by all indications, so Oklahoma wins this battle again by 10.
2008 GOTW Record: 10-8
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 - Week 5
1. Missouri (5-0)
2. Oklahoma (5-0)
3. Alabama (6-0)
4. LSU (4-0)
5. Penn State (6-0)
6. BYU (5-0)
7. Texas (5-0)
8. Texas Tech (5-0)
9. USC (3-1)
10. Ohio State (5-1)
Just Missed: Georgia, Florida, Utah, Oklahoma State, Vanderbilt
This has been a crazy year for me as a writer as everything from birth of a daughter to city-wide power outage has messed with deadlines, but this week finally did me in with a bout of stomach flu. My apologies on the late article, but all is well and I'm happy to be back discussing such a great weekend of college football with my audience. Have a great week and avoid this flu bug!
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