BOWL PREVIEW SERIES - THE ROSE BOWL

"The Grandaddy of Them All" has the best BCS matchup of the season, and this game is a wonderful consolation prize to these two teams who had their eyes set on a showdown with the Buckeyes in Glendale. Any Pac-10/Big Ten pairing is welcome in the Rose Bowl for tradition's sake, but these two teams are a dream matchup. Both squads lost to Texas in the last two Rose Bowl games, so now this provides an opportunity to win the ultimate prize for these conferences. USC and Michigan hit the field on Monday in Pasadena!

ROSE BOWL - #6-Southern Cal vs #2-Michigan
January 1 - 4:00 PM CST ABC - Pasadena, CA

How they got here...

Michigan rolled over an overrated Notre Dame team in South Bend in September and never stopped winning after that until November 18. Judgment Day in Columbus was quite the showcase, and Michigan almost won their way into the BCS Title game even in a losing effort. USC won the Pac-10 title but finished with two surprising losses to Oregon State and UCLA in the process. The Trojans also had a win-and-get-in opportunity to make their way into the BCS Title game, but perhaps they got caught looking ahead for the first time in Pete Carroll's tenure at USC. There's almost no doubt these two teams are fighting for second place in college football if Ohio State wins the title.

The stars...

Both quarterbacks look like great veterans, although USC's John David Booty (2956 yards, 25 TD, 9 INT) did not start until this year while Michigan's Chad Henne (2199 yards, 20 TD, 7 INT) is in his third year of starting. Although it is hard to imagine Michigan's trio of wide receivers being outclassed, Mario Manningham, Steve Breaston, and Adrian Arrington look average when compared with USC's Steve Smith, Dwayne Jarrett, and Patrick Turner. Michigan does have an advantage in the running game, as Mike Hart does not make mistakes and gets better as games drag on. The stars continue on defense, but Michigan's DE Lamarr Woodley looked good in every game this year, including the offensive blowout in Columbus. There's much more star power here, but it would be hard to cover them all in this small section.

The unsung heroes...

For USC, the unsung heroes on offense are the emerging rushing duo of junior Chauncey Washington and freshman C.J. Gable. These guys have made a difference in how defenses must attack the Trojan offense, and that alone helps USC roll down the field. Southern Cal also has a great set of linebackers in Keith Rivers, Rey Maualuga, and Dallas Sartz who will become household names after this game, just like Hawk, Carpenter, and Schlegel last season at Ohio State. For the Wolverines, the unsung heroes come on the defense, where Lamarr Woodley has three other great talents to aid him in the front seven in LB Prescott Burgess, LB Dave Harris, and DT Alan Branch. These guys lead one of the best defenses in Michigan history, but the Wolverines will need to step up more than they did against the Buckeyes.

The coaches...

You really cannot ask for much more on the sidelines than the men these teams employ. Lloyd Carr is midway through a second decade in Ann Arbor, and he may be on the verge of leading the Wolverines to their second split national title this season. The only knock on Carr is that he has had trouble recently in bowl games and against Ohio State, but this Wolverine team is one to make even the late Bo Schembechler proud. Pete Carroll is probably the best coach in college football today (by a small bit over Jim Tressel and others), and the staff around him includes stars such as Norm Chow. USC has won five straight league titles and has been in the national title race each of the past five seasons. These two coaches are one great reason to tune in on New Year's Day.

The keys to the game...

[#1] The first key will be how both teams recover from losing their final regular season games and missing Glendale by narrow margins. This game could be decided in the first quarter if one team gets off on the wrong foot. Both teams must focus on the task and opportunity at hand.

[#2] The second key will be how quickly Mike Hart can establish himself and the Michigan running game. If Hart is breaking through to the second level of defenders in the first half, the Trojans will be in for a long second half. Hart cannot make a mistake either, as his consistency keeps the Wolverines close in tough games.

[#3] The third key will be if Michigan's great defense can stop USC's passing game. Michigan has only faced one other team with comparable offensive talent, and the Wolverine defense got burned for 500 yards of offense and 42 points. Michigan has a better defense on paper than USC and that should make the difference, but that's only if they can actually stop the Trojans.

The x-factor...

The x-factor will be special teams play. Michigan's Steve Breaston has not broken out a huge play this season returning kicks, but this could be the game to make the biggest difference of all. Both units have return guys who can break the big one, but I think Breaston's day will determine a lot of the outcome of this game (field position could be everything).

The staff says...

Ben David Eddie Ethan Gregg Jeff Jonathan Matt Matthew Reed
MICH MICH MICH MICH MICH MICH USC MICH MICH MICH

BOWL PREVIEW SERIES - PART VI

Before champagne toasts go into the sky and a New Year is christened worldwide, bringing the best day in college football, the final two days of 2006 have their own share of compelling games. Navy and Boston College showcase a clash of offensive styles in the Car Care Bowl, while the Alamo Bowl follows with a couple of underachieving midwest powerhouses as Texas plays Iowa. Virginia Tech and Georgia make for a great nightcap in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl before the final day of 2006 and the final bowl of 2006 pits Miami and Nevada on the blue turf at Boise. These bowls offer a little bit of everything to prepare you for the great slate of 2007 bowls.

Car Care Bowl | Alamo Bowl
Chick-fil-A Bowl | MPC Computers Bowl

CAR CARE BOWL - Navy vs Boston College
December 30 - 12:00 PM CST ESPN - Charlotte, NC

When Navy has the ball...

Expect the time of possession meter to continually favor the Midshipmen as the famous option rushing attack leads the nation in yards on the ground. Losing starting QB Brian Hampton in midseason was a huge disappointment, but Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku Enhada has filled in nicely. Enhada has plenty of speed to run the triple option attack, while physical fullback Adam Ballard (792 rushing yards, 3 TD) and explosive halfback Reggie Campbell (655 yards, 5 TD) are great alternatives to go to. Boston College has a great run defense and over a month to prepare for the option, so the key will be to see if Navy continues to be unstoppable on the ground.

When Boston College has the ball...

And now for something completely different, the Eagles offense is led by the passing attack of QB Matt Ryan (2700 yards, 14 TD, 8 INT). Ryan has two great wide receivers to throw to who can burn secondaries with their speed in Kevin Challenger (508 yards, 5 TD) and Tony Gonzalez (441 yards, 5 TD). The running game features L.V. Whitworth and Andre Callandar, but do not expect fireworks from this part of the offense. Navy might be undersized on defense, but the Midshipmen have shown more than enough effort to make it through games this season.

The deciding factor...

Despite all the time to prepare for the Midshipmen, the Eagles lost their coach Tom O'Brien to NC State and will have to prepare with a new coaching setup. The Eagle defense will probably slow Navy down enough to be the favorite here, but the key will be Boston College's offense not making mistakes. BC has really only lost when they make big mistakes, so Navy will need to create a couple turnovers to wear out the BC defense and possibly win the game.

The staff says...

Ben David Eddie Ethan Gregg Jeff Jonathan Matt Matthew Reed
BC BC NAVY NAVY BC BC NAVY BC BC BC

ALAMO BOWL - Iowa vs Texas
December 30 - 3:30 PM CST ESPN - San Antonio, TX

When Iowa has the ball...

This is a battle of teams that fizzled at the end of the year, and both have had significant injuries to overcome causing these letdowns. Senior QB Drew Tate has been inconsistent, but his leadership is unquestioned and his talent solid. Unfortunately for the Hawkeyes, their best receiver is senior tight end Scott Chandler, so that puts a lot of pressure on the front four and RB's Albert Young and Damian Sims. Texas's defense has not been racked by injuries, but the Longhorn defense was very inconsistent in November. Iowa appears too one-dimensional to make much noise on this side of the ball.

When Texas has the ball...

This week the Longhorns got the best news of the year, that being starting freshman QB Colt McCoy will play in the Alamo Bowl. No matter who throws the passes, Texas has an outstanding offense featuring dual rushing threats Jamaal Charles and Selvin Young, as well as great WR's Limas Sweed and Quan Crosby. The Longhorns really are one Vince Young away from last year's national championship, and the Iowa achilles heel is the poor defensive backfield. With the talent Texas has at WR, Iowa will need to step up and get a lot of pressure on McCoy to have a chance.

The deciding factor...

The coaches and programs are top class in this much-better-than-usual Alamo Bowl. San Antonio is usually happy with one big-name team, but Iowa and the local Longhorns (85 miles from Austin to the Alamo) will both travel well in support of their teams. I really think the Iowa secondary was exposed by Ohio State, and Texas is more than talented enough to exploit that flaw and make that aspect the game-breaker.

The staff says...

Ben David Eddie Ethan Gregg Jeff Jonathan Matt Matthew Reed
TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX TX

CHICK-FIL-A BOWL - Georgia vs #14-Virginia Tech
December 30 - 7:00 PM CST ESPN - Atlanta, GA

When Georgia has the ball...

Unlike other freshmen quarterbacks at major programs, Matt Stafford really had a rough season for the Dawgs. The offensive line has not enabled RB Kregg Lumpkin to establish himself at all, and Stafford has struggled because he has no playmakers at wide receiver. Virginia Tech is a deceptively good two-loss team, and their top ranked defense has a lot to do with it. Georgia will not score much here.

When Virginia Tech has the ball...

While Virginia Tech does not win with offense either, the Hokies have a lot more going for them than the Bulldogs. RB Branden Ore is the star of the offense (1095 yards rushing, 14 TD), while QB Sean Glennon is no slouch either. Georgia has won 8 games with defense this season, so perhaps the defense keeps them in this one as well. Virginia Tech will probably not overpower the Bulldog defense.

The deciding factor...

If you like points, this game is probably not the one for you. With two mediocre offenses and two dominating defenses, the difference will, as always, come down to special teams and turnovers. Virginia Tech knows this and can afford to spend more time refining their already great special teams, so expect the "Beamerball" to make the difference in this one.

The staff says...

Ben David Eddie Ethan Gregg Jeff Jonathan Matt Matthew Reed
GA VT GA GA GA VT VT VT GA VT

MPC COMPUTERS BOWL - Miami vs Nevada
December 31 - 6:30 PM CST ESPN - Boise, ID

When Miami has the ball...

Well this should be interesting, as Miami will be praying for the best weather Boise has had in December in years. QB Kirby Freeman is a real x-Factor filling in for the injured Kyle Wright. He will be helped by talented freshman RB Javarris James and TE Greg Olsen, as well as many other talented playmakers. Nevada's defense plays the bend-but-don't-break system, which might falter and break with all the talent Miami has. The question then is whether Miami desires to show up for such a game.

When Nevada has the ball...

The Wolfpack may not have as much talent at the Hurricanes, but statistically they have been better all season long (and losing to Boise State is no shame this season). Senior leadership moves this offense with QB Jeff Rowe (1715 yards passing, 16 TD) and RB Robert Hubbard (936 yards rushing, 6 TD). Nevada will not want to let a second big name escape their grasp this season after losing to Bosie State, so on the Broncos' field, the Wolfpack will be more than ready to take on the Hurricanes and their talented defense.

The deciding factor...

Really it has to be whether Miami shows up or not. Miami has more than enough talent and coaching prowess to put this one away easily, but Nevada has the right mix of a good running game and a decent defense to make this interesting. Rough weather could also doom the Hurricanes here. Should be an interesting capper on 2006.

The staff says...

Ben David Eddie Ethan Gregg Jeff Jonathan Matt Matthew Reed
NEV MIA NEV MIA NEV NEV MIA MIA NEV NEV

SELECTION SUNDAY: THE CASE FOR A REMATCH

Well I guess I lied about columns being complete, as "Championship Saturday" brought up one of the most compelling BCS issues of all time. The country and the experts are split following USC’s loss at UCLA as to who should play Ohio State in the BCS Championship Game. On one side is the freshly-minted SEC champ Florida Gators at 12-1. On the other is Big Ten runner-up Michigan at 11-1. Never one to shy away from a BCS debate, I am here working overtime on a Sunday to share my opinion, and that is the only team that truly deserves a shot at OSU is Michigan.

Florida seems to have some hard facts going for them. UF has played 13 games to Michigan’s 12, and the SEC is clearly a better overall conference than the Big Ten this season. Florida is scoring 29.6 points per game to Michigan’s 30.2, and Florida is only giving up 12.7 points per game to Michigan’s 14.6. The Gators have played the toughest schedule in the country, but Michigan played the third-toughest. Florida is ending on a roll, and there will be a sympathy vote for the SEC after Auburn at 12-0 got left out of the BCS title game in 2004. Seems fairly compelling on this side...

Michigan, though, can point to the fact that the numbers above are basically equal between the two teams, and there are three more reasons to pick the Wolverines. Michigan has the much better loss (3 points at Ohio State, the undisputed #1) and better wins against their premier opponents (26 point win at Notre Dame and a dominating 14 point win at Wisconsin). Florida’s loss is not as impressive (10 points at Auburn) and their premier wins are also not as good (21-20 at Tennessee and 23-10 vs. LSU in the Swamp).

The second reason is that everybody was ready to have a rematch two weeks ago if USC did not win out after the OSU-UM classic, and that was when Arkansas and Notre Dame were also in the mix with Florida. Florida has not been the third best team in the country over the past two months. If USC had lost two weeks ago to California, Michigan would have a deadlock on number two and nobody would debate this as much as now. Florida had a chance to play two more games at the end of the year, and the public perception is so fickle. Michigan was our number two after losing to Ohio State, why not now?

The third and perhaps most compelling reason the BCS should have a rematch is that Michigan (and Ohio State) would absolutely run Florida out of the building on the field. Michigan does not make mistakes, and they were the first team to capitalize on an Ohio State mistake on November 18. Michigan has a much better defense and running game, so the domination of tempo and lineman play would make a huge difference. Even if Florida minimized the mistakes and kept it close, the Gators have terrible special teams, including a top kicker who is 3 of 12 on the year on field goals. I wish this could be decided on the field, as then Michigan could prove to everyone that the SEC Champion is a fraud. If the BCS is to match the best two teams in the country for the national title, there is no doubt Michigan is that second team. Don’t be fooled by OSU fans voting their preference to play Florida, as the Buckeye nation is truly afraid of what UM could do in a rematch as opposed to Florida.

In the end this debate should not matter as either team will probably be taken down by Troy Smith and company, but Michigan certainly is the better team and will have a better shot than Florida of knocking off the juggernaut Buckeyes. Florida says Michigan already got their chance, but I wonder if the Gators would feel the same if they had played on November 18 in the Horseshoe against OSU. Florida makes too many mistakes and gets lucky too often to be considered a legitimate national title contender. For those who think this is blasphemous from an OSU fan who saw the 2002 Buckeyes get the same kind of breaks in many games before they knocked off heavily favored Miami for the title, there is one critical difference you are missing. OSU was undefeated and the only other undefeated in 2002, whereas Florida did not take care of their business against Auburn and therefore has to debate with Michigan.

This is indeed where I could make the case for a playoff system, but I think the fact that this debate has to take place is enough proof. Some very deserving team will get left out of the Glendale dance, and that is a shame when every other college division is currently through week two or three of a 16-team playoff. Returning to my playoff system from a couple articles ago, this is what you could be looking forward to if I had my way.

2006 National Championship Playoff
#1 Ohio State vs. #8 Wake Forest
#2 Michigan vs. #7 USC
#3 Florida vs. #6 Oklahoma
#4 Louisville vs. #5 Boise State

Can you imagine this beautiful scenario? The Cinderella Wake Forest gets to test their mettle against the undefeated Buckeyes. Michigan and USC play a traditional Rose Bowl type battle. Florida and Oklahoma would be a showcase of teams on a run at the end of the season, and Louisville vs. Boise State would be a very high-scoring, entertaining affair. This system would also put the importance on the regular season like today because teams pretty much either have to win their conference or go undefeated to get in. Winning the conference would truly mean something, and the national champion would be undisputed. Well enough dreaming for now, as I will give you my final BCS bowl projections (and since the UM-UF issue is too close to call and might require a recount, I give you both contingencies, even though I think UM should play for the title).

BCS Bowl Projection #1
BCS TITLE: Ohio State vs. Michigan
SUGAR: Florida vs. Notre Dame
ORANGE: Wake Forest vs. Louisville
FIESTA: Oklahoma vs. Boise State
ROSE: USC vs. LSU

BCS Bowl Projection #2
BCS TITLE: Ohio State vs. Florida
SUGAR: LSU vs. Notre Dame
ORANGE: Wake Forest vs. Louisville
FIESTA: Oklahoma vs. Boise State
ROSE: USC vs. Michigan

As you can see, the Florida/Michigan controversy also affects where LSU will be spending bowl season. The Bayou Bengals will either play in their first ever Rose Bowl against USC or stay closer to home in the traditional Sugar Bowl against Notre Dame. The bowls might surprise and wreck this if Boise State is selected over Louisville, but they have been fairly predictable (and these matchups seem correct to me).

No games to preview this week, but now a final season record can be put into perspective.

2005 GOTW (Regular Season) Record: 26-17, 60.5% wins
2006 GOTW (Regular Season) Record: 30-12, 71.4% wins

2005-06 Bowl Season Record: 17-11, 60.7% wins
2006-07 Bowl Season Record: TBA

Fitzy’s Top 10 – Final Regular Season
1. Ohio State (12-0)
2. Michigan (11-1)
3. Wisconsin (11-1)
4. Florida (12-1)
5. LSU (10-2)
6. Louisville (11-1)
7. Oklahoma (11-2)
8. Boise State (12-0)
9. USC (10-2)
10. Auburn (10-2)

Well you may not be reading this until after the BCS and total bowl lineups are announced, but nonetheless I wish you a great holiday season. Come back in a couple weeks and see the staff’s take on all the bowl games, and good luck to all the people still in contention at the end of the year in the Pick'Em contest. As always, feel free to email me with opinions or comments. Thanks for reading!

A COMPELLING SEASON COMES TO A CLOSE

Well this is my final normal article of the season, as the last truncated regular season week is upon us. Looking back on the regular season of 2006, there were a lot of things to like, such as the crazy upsets and debate over BCS possibilities, but there were a lot of things to dislike, such as bad new clock rules, bad replays, a brawl in Miami, and no real Heisman race. Despite all these downers, I still think 2006 was a good year, mainly due to the unpredictability of the games and conference battles. Ohio and Rice are going to their first bowl games since the 1960’s, Rutgers was a legitimate national title contender and could win the Big East, and Wake Forest and Georgia Tech are changing perceptions of the ACC balance of power.

The one big story this time of year is the unfortunate coaching carousel that must happen as coaches move on to bigger and better opportunities while others are dropped for poor results. I claimed that John L. Smith (Michigan State) and Larry Coker (Miami) were racing to the first pink slips of 2006, but then John Bunting at North Carolina won that race. Coker and Smith were fired though, as well as Mike Shula at Alabama. North Carolina grabbed Butch Davis while Michigan State hired Mark Dantonio already this week. This leaves Alabama, Miami, and Cincinnati as the major job openings left at this point.

While firing coaches mid-season seems to lack a little tact, it does allow the universities to start searching and interviewing for replacements before everyone else. Michigan State and North Carolina grabbed a couple of the best available coaches by doing this, and the pickings seem slim for the remaining openings. You can never predict if guys like Greg Schiano and Rich Rodriguez will be lured away like Dantonio was, and you can also not predict if coaches such as Kirk Ferentz or even Jim Tressel will consider moving onto another challenge at the pro level. Of course more of this will happen after the bowls are done, but I really think we will see schools like Alabama and Miami struggle to fill positions that do not have as much prestige as they used to (look at how long Notre Dame struggled to find the magic again).

Before we look ahead to the bowl season in future articles and this small slate of championship weekend games, it is time to give out awards in each conference for the player of the year, coach of the year, and surprise of the year.

Atlantic Coast Conference

The player of the year is clearly Calvin Johnson, WR at Georgia Tech. Johnson has been perhaps the best wide receiver in football this season and has saved the mediocre QB play of the Yellow Jackets, sending them to a possible conference title. Coach of the year is Jim Grobe at Wake Forest, for taking a Demon Deacon team who was supposed to dwell in the cellar of the division this year, and taking said team to the ACC title game while weathering many important losses to injury. The surprise of the year is undoubtedly the reversal of fortunes in the balance of power, as Virginia Tech, Miami, and Florida State never really had a chance to top Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Maryland, and Boston College. This will be a very interesting bowl season for the conference as it tries to prove it is better than perceptions in 2006.

Big XII Conference

Player of the year honors go to Aaron Ross, CB at Texas. This guy has the complete package of abilities and great statistics (5 INT, 3 Forced Fumbles, 1 TD, and over 40 solo tackles), and he led the best unit in the conference despite being let down by the offense in the final two games of the season. Coach of the year is clearly Bob Stoops at Oklahoma. Stoops suspended his starting QB for the season before it began, lost his Heisman candidate running back halfway through the year, and had to recover from controversy stemming from two terribly blown calls in a September loss to Oregon. Stoops showed his championship caliber coaching though, and overcame all these obstacles to win the division for the sixth time in 8 years. Surprise of the year is a tie between the wonderful play of freshman QB Colt McCoy at Texas and the continuing dominance of the South division in inter-division games.

Big East Conference

Player of the year is a tie here between Steve Slaton (RB) and Pat White (QB), both from West Virginia. These two guys ran roughshod over Georgia in last year’s Sugar Bowl and continued to do so against all competition this season. Even with the shocking loss at South Florida last week, these two have together been the most fearsome threats any conference team has to prepare for. Coach of the year goes undoubtedly to Greg Schiano who turned Rutgers into a legitimate national title threat this season. Surprise of the season could have been the surprising good play from South Florida and Cincinnati, but it’s not every year a conference has three undefeated teams in the national title chase in November, and the Big East will look good this bowl season.

Big Ten Conference

Player of the year is Troy Smith, who will win the Heisman and who still stood out on the field with all the backbreaking talent the Buckeye offense has at all the skill positions. While I like what Lloyd Carr and Jim Tressel accomplished this season, coach of the year goes to Pat Fitzgerald at Northwestern for holding together a team that easily could have quit on the season and fallen apart after losing their literal and spiritual leader in head coach Randy Walker this summer. Honorable mention to the other young gun in the conference Bret Bielema at Wisconsin for an 11-1 season following the departure of the legendary Barry Alvarez. Surprise of the year was how far ahead of the rest of the conference the two traditional power schools were this season with the demise of Iowa and poor play from Penn State against good teams. Look for a struggling bowl season, as every team had to move up a step with the conference getting two BCS bowls.

Conference USA

Player of the year is Kevin Kolb, QB at Houston. The efficiency of Kolb has been staggering as he led the Cougars to a probable conference title and a 9-3 record. Coach of the year is Todd Graham at Rice, who in his first year has continued the improvement at the program and has the Owls in their first bowl game in 45 years. The surprise of the year is undoubtedly the success of Rice and SMU, both earning above-.500 records for the first time in ages. Houston is clearly the class of the conference this season though, and you do not want to miss Kevin Kolb’s last collegiate game in the bowl season.

Mid-American Conference

Player of the year is Garrett Wolfe, RB at Northern Illinois. For the second straight season, Wolfe led the nation is rushing, including exploding for more than 200 yards in the opener at Ohio State (who, by the way, went on to some success). The only thing keeping Wolfe from Heisman contention is the disappointing year Northern Illinois had, despite qualifying for a bowl. Coach of the year is Frank Solich at Ohio, who overcame personal drinking problems in the off-season and continued the turnaround of the Bobcats, who will play in their first bowl since 1968 on January 7. The surprise of the season is definitely the Ohio-Central Michigan conference title game on Thursday following seasons of dominance by the likes of Toledo, Northern Illinois, Bowling Green, and Miami.

Mountain West Conference

Player of the year is John Beck, QB at BYU. Beck has also been a figure of consistency this year, leading BYU to eight straight victories and many blowouts on the way to a conference title. Coach of the year for the same reasons is Bronco Mendenhall at BYU, who is now 12-1 at BYU in non-overtime contests (0-2 in OT). Surprise of the year is how the traditional powers in this conference, Air Force and Colorado State, have had losing seasons and not played up to their potential at all.

Pacific 10 Conference

There are plenty of candidates for player of the year, but my choice is Dwayne Jarrett, WR at USC. USC has played the toughest schedule they could find out-of-conference, and will probably play for a national title due in part to Jarrett’s leadership on offense. He has just as many circus catches and good statistics as Calvin Johnson at Georgia Tech, and USC would probably have multiple losses without his ability to step up and find the open seams in any defense. Seeing him work against Ohio State will be fantastic. Coach of the year is Pete Carroll at USC, who keeps replacing a lot of NFL talent and winning his fifth straight conference title. USC has finished in the top 3 nationally each of the past four years, and Carroll is the genius who looks to make that happen a fifth straight time this year also. Surprise of the year was the great season Oregon State had, highlighted of course by the only loss handed to USC.

Southeastern Conference

Player of the year is Darren McFadden, RB at Arkansas. McFadden has come out of nowhere to show off his outstanding speed and tackle-breaking abilities while leading Arkansas to the SEC championship game. Coach of the year is Urban Meyer at Florida, who knows how to coach a team well enough to win many close games. If it were not for Notre Dame (Michigan and USC have way more credibility thanks to their wins over the overrated Irish squad), Florida may be playing for a spot in the national title game. Surprise of the year is Auburn not running away with the conference as expected, as the Tigers did not even win their division.

Sun Belt Conference

Player of the year goes back to the defensive side of the ball to J.K. Sabb, LB at Middle Tennessee State. MTSU has rolled to a league title, the defense has been the main reason for their undefeated run in conference play, and Sabb is the true leader of that unit. Another rookie head coach Rick Stockstill (MTSU) wins coach of the year honors for taking the Blue Raiders to their first conference title and bowl berth. Surprise of the year is how a good Florida International team went 0-11, but perhaps the midseason brawl at Miami and the subsequent suspensions ended any hope for them.

Western Athletic Conference

The player of the year is Colt Brennan, QB at Hawaii. Despite having no national spotlight at all with most home games starting around midnight eastern time, Brennan still has grabbed the attention of the college football world with nearly 5000 passing yards and over 50 touchdowns. Coach of the year is Chris Peterson at Boise State, who is also a rookie coach this season and continued the trend of taking the program to a new level, this year an undefeated record and a BCS Bowl. Surprise of the year is also Boise State making what appears to be the Fiesta Bowl, and wouldn’t it be great if the Broncos scored a huge upset in their BCS outing?

Moving now to the final week of games, the first game of the week is Rutgers at West Virginia. RU can cap a surprising season and a conference title with a victory in Morgantown, while WVU is playing spoiler after losing to South Florida last weekend. Louisville will certainly be pulling for the Mountaineers in this one, and the key battle will be the Rutgers' defense against the WVU offense. Pat White and Steve Slaton have run over everyone they played this season (a few turnovers decided the offensive showdown loss at Louisville), and Rutgers has looked shaky at times against Louisville and Cincinnati. The Scarlet Knights usually win when they are not expected to this season, but I think WVU will rebound and defend the home turf in this one. Mountaineers score a few too many for Rutgers’ anemic offense to keep up, so WVU by 17.

The second game of the week is Nebraska and Oklahoma splitting the difference of distance to meet in Kansas City for the Big XII title. Oklahoma has slowly taken care of business after the Texas loss, and the Sooners are on such a roll that it is hard to imagine the breaks they received from the Longhorns will be wasted. Nebraska is not your normal North pushover though, and Oklahoma will probably end up having to slug it out on the ground against the Husker defense. With a couple of turnovers, Nebraska could steal this one, but I think Oklahoma would be a serious national title contender if not for the stolen game at Oregon. Oklahoma wins by 6.

The game of the week is the SEC Title Game, Arkansas and Florida in Jacksonville. Arkansas finally took a loss in SEC play last week against LSU, but this is not all that surprising given how tough the 10-2 LSU Tigers have been this year. Arkansas has blown away many opponents who could not step up and stop RB Darren McFadden, but unfortunately for the Razorbacks, the Gators have a defense. Florida has not won games pretty this season, but in the clutch, the Gators have almost always prevailed by coming up with a clutch turnover or a big play at the right time. Urban Meyer’s offense has sputtered as of late, and this is a big concern coming into December. Nevertheless, Florida has a good enough defense to stop McFadden from breaking the big plays. UF takes this one by 3.

GOTW 2006 Record to Date: 27-12
Last Week: 2-1

Fitzy’s Top 10 – Week 14
1. Ohio State (12-0)
2. USC (10-1)
3. Michigan (11-1)
4. Wisconsin (11-1)
5. Florida (11-1)
6. LSU (10-2)
7. Louisville (10-1)
8. Oklahoma (10-2)
9. Boise State (12-0)
10. Arkansas (10-2)

Enjoy the final slate of regular season games! I know I am excited to see how the bowl picture shakes out this weekend and will look forward to analyzing the bowl matchups in future articles. As always, have a good week!

PHOTO GALLERY: BCS CLEARS UP AFTER 'THE GAME'

On a cold November night in Columbus, Ohio, the national title and Heisman Trophy were both wrapped up. Ohio State and Michigan played one for the ages in their 103rd meeting, and perhaps they also locked up a 104th meeting in January at Glendale. The 42-39 score was not typical of these defensive powerhouses, but if there is one truism in college football, it is “expect the unexpected.” As one of the lucky 105,708 in Ohio Stadium, I have decided to give all my readers a taste of the glory, pictures and all.

Pregame

Almost as much of a tradition as college football in Columbus, towing the forgetful drivers who leave their cars on Neil Avenue north of campus is a sight to behold. The picture below shows just another tow, but the funny part was the students on the front porch behind the car drinking beer and waving at us as we take pictures of the towing. They just stand there and drink while occasionally throwing in insults about cops and towing companies. It's a great way to get pumped up 5 hours before a football game. Next to that picture is another of the gas station on Neil and Lane that sells the most beer and snacks before the game while also providing a nice coffee stop for all the cops that wish to stand around.

While we did not get into the packed St. John Arena to see the OSU band warm-up event called the Skull Session, the scene outside that building and north of the Horseshoe was crazy four and a half hours before gametime. This picture is of the Coca-Cola sponsored tailgating games and fun they bring to every home game.

What would a college football showdown be without the most famous two hours of pre-game? This is how packed the College Gameday background was, and you can see all the signs up in the air. The shouts when Fowler, Herbstreit, Corso, and Howard went on-air were deafening, despite being outside in a parking lot. Also pictured is the view looking in the opposite direction of the beautiful north end of the stadium.

There’s nothing quite like tailgating, and I have a big group of friends from this tailgate I met 5 years ago as a freshman at Ohio State. Games are not the same without a little food, a little beverage, and a lot of discussion of the Buckeyes in this lot south of the Towers. The second picture features the photographer of all these photos and my wife on the left, me in the middle, and one of my close friends on the right.

Finally inside the Horseshoe, the teams are warming up and getting ready to do battle. The OSU Band then warms the crowd up with another rousing Script Ohio. The pre-game festivities conclude with the introduction of the 19 seniors on the Buckeye squad as they ran through the Tunnel of Pride (made up of previous Buckeye football players) and welcome their family. I did not think the stadium could get louder than 2002, but Troy Smith’s welcome was one for the ages.

First Quarter

And the game is underway! As shown by this picture of the first play, Michigan wishes to establish Mike Hart and the running game. The first drive seems too easy, as Michigan scores a TD in just under 3 minutes. Ohio State, though, comes right back down the field in a long drive featuring mostly passes and great play by Troy Smith, especially on 3 third down conversions. Notice in the second picture just how wide open Roy Hall (#8) is when he catches the ball, and then his nice footwork in the third picture to get the TD. Even though Michigan appears to be outplaying both Buckeye lines, perhaps the teams will settle down now. Indeed they do as both teams punt on the next possessions. Quarter ends at 7-7.

Second Quarter

Michigan is forced to punt again, and it is starting to look like both defenses showed up to play. All of a sudden the Buckeyes bust out the big play - surprisingly in the running game as Chris Wells goes for a 52-yard score after making a beautiful spin move to evade the first tackler behind the line of scrimmage. Michigan has only given up 30 yards per game on the ground and one 20+ yard play all season, so this is a big deal.

Then Michigan got one heck of a gift after going three-and-out as the Buckeyes ran over the center on the punt and gave Michigan a new set of downs. I swear one mistake will change this game. Not this one though, as the Silver Bullets step up and get another three-and-out and force the punt to the Buckeye 7 yard line. Long field for OSU. This next drive started down on my end of the stadium, but the Buckeyes are keeping the momentum. Another TD catch for Ginn and it is 21-7 only 4 plays later. Just when it seems Michigan is about to be blown out, they respond with a nice drive to cut the lead to 7. Unfortunately for them, they leave over 2 minutes on the clock and Smith leads another nice drive to put the Buckeyes up 28-14 at half.

I really cannot see Michigan winning if OSU does not turn the ball over in the second half. On one last sidenote, it appears our ROTC Army guys are going to get a workout today doing pushups for every point OSU scores (see picture below).

Third Quarter

The one thing I am certain is coming out over the TV is just how loud Ohio Stadium is tonight. This is by far the loudest I have ever heard it, and it seems like the team is thriving off the energy. Again Michigan starts the half rolling, getting a three-and-out and then an interception which leads to 10 quick points, making it 28-24 OSU. The first picture is the beginning of the interception play, and notice how Michigan is getting a good pass rush right off the snap. All of a sudden the Buckeyes do not look so good, as those 3 points are the first given up off a turnover all season. Like I said, Michigan can only win if OSU makes mistakes. OSU then breaks off another 50+ yard run, this time from Antonio Pittman. Michigan’s defense looks terrible up the middle, as both big runs have come with 8 or 9 guys in the box and yet they still do not stop OSU up the middle. A few more tense drives end in punts, and the quarter ends 35-24 in favor of the Bucks.

Fourth Quarter

Right at the end of the third quarter, OSU gift-wraps another score for Michigan by messing up the shotgun center-QB exchange and fumbling on their own 10. Michigan takes it in at the beginning of the fourth quarter as shown in the first picture below. Ohio State seems unfazed and they drive down the field, almost breaking away before another fumble on a shotgun exchange at the UM 33. Michigan, though, calls terrible plays and punts it right back. OSU drives but gets stopped around the 40 yard line, making it 3rd and 15. The Wolverines stop OSU but a late helmet-to-helmet hit on Troy Smith by Shawn Crable is a personal foul and an automatic first down. This is the kind of mistake I was talking about. Yep, OSU shoves it down the throat of Michigan and gets another TD pass. Troy has really spread the wealth, as this is the 4th TD to someone new.

Michigan drives slowly down the field, but I think they are running out of time. Then a terrible pass interference call saves the Wolverines on a 4th and 16 from midfield. It could be the penalty, as UM goes in for another TD and a nice two-point conversion (second picture below). Onside kick time, but Ginn makes his most important catch of the day and OSU should be able to run the clock out. State closes out a wild one 42-39.

Post-Game

Let the celebration begin in Columbus! The troopers should be ready after 2002 and 2004 field rushes. Watch the progression from a small group of people as the Wolverines run off the field to a full field in the third picture. And here's one final look at Jim Tressel singing the alma mater Carmen Ohio and the scoreboard that says it all.

Although Troy Smith more than locked up the Heisman Trophy on Saturday, the national championship picture is not completely clear just yet. Cincinnati eliminated Rutgers (the last Big East team in contention), leaving a top 6 of teams who play each other in the last three weeks of the season (Michigan at Ohio State, Notre Dame at USC, Florida v. Arkansas). Given Michigan’s close loss, they stayed number two in a lot of polls and in the BCS, but USC will overtake them with wins against ND and UCLA.

I personally think this is correct as the SEC has not been impressive (Florida looks awful and Arkansas got beat 50-14 by USC while having their own share of close calls). Notre Dame has not played well enough either, and their 47-21 loss to Michigan at home eliminates them as well. This leaves USC and Michigan, and USC deserves the bid if they run through the tough November gauntlet. They have impressive wins against Oregon and Cal so far, but the Trojans still need two good games to escape the month. As much as I like to see BCS chaos, I think the system got lucky this season and OSU-USC or the rematch of OSU-UM will be acceptable. Just don’t expect as many points if it is the rematch!

LOOKING FORWARD

There’s still enough football to feast on in the regular season even though the Big Ten is done, and this week’s third best game is Wake Forest at Maryland. Two days earlier, Miami hosts Boston College with a lot on the line (Miami is 5-6 and needs a win to redeem a poor season while BC needs a win to stay in contention for the ACC Atlantic division title). If Miami wins, then WF and UM play for the division title; however if Boston College wins, then only Wake Forest can win the division by winning this game as BC owns the tiebreaker with Maryland. Both the Demon Deacons and Terrapins were exposed last weekend in big losses, and both teams need to start this game well to get the ship righted. I think Wake Forest got caught looking ahead last week and will take care of business, as Maryland really has not been impressive at all offensively. Expect Wake Forest to capitalize on a Maryland turnover or two and win by 14, claiming a shocking division title.

Any game testing a national title contender usually gets top billing, and there are two this weekend. The second best one is LSU at Arkansas. Many assumed Arkansas would not make it past South Carolina and Tennessee after beating Auburn, but the Razorbacks did and this game means nothing as far as the SEC West is concerned. Arkansas has played very good defense after giving up 50 to USC in the opener, and they will need to again this week as JaMarcus Russell brings the Tiger offense to Arkansas. Do not be fooled by LSU’s struggles with Mississippi, as the Tigers were probably looking ahead to this game. LSU has (amazingly) struggled to put up the points this season, and I think Arkansas has enough defense to do it again. UA has a mediocre offense, but it will be enough to win this game by 10.

The game of the week is the final major hurdle for USC holding the Trojans from a third straight title game appearance. Notre Dame came as close as you could come to beating the Trojans last season before falling at home, and the Golden Domers have been waiting since then for revenge. Charlie Weis has a little more defense this season, and USC does not have Leinart, Bush, and White anymore. The key to this game is not USC QB John David Booty, but instead Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn. The Heisman and the national title may be out of reach for Quinn, but an 11-1 season and being selected first in next year’s draft is still on the line. Both of these teams matchup well on paper, so it all comes down to execution. I think Charlie Weis has had a few weeks to rest up the troops and prepare for this game, but that will not be enough. USC has too much on the line and the Trojans know how to win the big games, so I’ll take USC by 4.

GOTW 2006 Record to Date: 25-11
Last Week: 2-1

Fitzy’s Top 10 – Week 13
1. Ohio State (12-0)
2. USC (9-1)
3. Michigan (11-1)
4. Arkansas (10-1)
5. Notre Dame (10-1)
6. Florida (10-1)
7. West Virginia (9-1)
8. Wisconsin (11-1)
9. LSU (9-2)
10. Texas (9-2)

After witnessing the game of the season, I have to tip my hat to both Michigan and Ohio State for one great battle. Also to all the fans, who made Ohio Stadium the loudest stadium in all the land Saturday (and also partied responsibly before and after the game by all accounts). I am planning a trip to Glendale, and quite frankly I am cheering for USC to win out and play the Buckeyes. Have a great long weekend and don’t eat too much turkey!

GO BLUE! GO BUCKS! 'THE GAME' FINALLY ARRIVES

The national championship game has arrived, albeit a month or two early. When #2 Michigan takes the field against #1 Ohio State, the national champion will be on the field this Saturday. How would you describe this game in one or two words? Championships, border war, Heisman, greatest rivalry, explosive offenses, strangling defenses, coaching masters, amazing, passionate... All are possibilities. After attending this game for the past five seasons, I would characterize this game with these words: Big Ten.

“The Game” embodies everything the Big Ten is every season, and it always showcases at least one of the best two teams in the conference. A de facto championship game, Michigan and Ohio State always seem to have a Big Ten championship on the line when these titans meet in November. It does not matter if the other nine teams in the conference play wide-open football all season, the Buckeyes and Wolverines will undoubtedly get into a defensive showdown where the best running game makes all the difference.

The history behind this game and both teams is staggering, as the universities combined have 72 Big Ten Championships, 18 National Championships, 9 Heisman Winners, and 1646 total victories. With both teams entering the game undefeated for the first time since 1975 and the teams being ranked #1 and #2 coming into The Game for the first time in history, this will be one of the most important games ever in this rivalry. This showdown is almost like Woody and Bo playing for the Rose Bowl in the 60’s and 70’s, and indeed this game will send one team to the Rose Bowl this year also. Unfortunately, tradition has been shunned for a crappy BCS championship system and the loser of this historic battle will play in Pasadena, while the winner gets to play in Glendale, Arizona for the title.

For those not native to Big Ten country, the importance of this game may seem similar to other rivalries such as Alabama-Auburn, USC-UCLA, Army-Navy, and the like, but somehow those all pale in comparison to this one. While the nation has admittedly shifted to a BCS-centered world where the only championships that seem to matter are national championships, the system we have creates arbitrary national champions at best most seasons (2005 Texas and 2002 Ohio State being notable exceptions). The only real championships that have not changed are conference championships. I think based on the total year that the winner of this game is the true national champion whether or not they win in Glendale, but the real prize here is the Big Ten championship. That’s something tangible on the line every year and something to brag about.

Ohio State has not claimed an outright conference title since 1984, and make no mistake that this is the season goal of the Buckeyes (not a national championship). The Wolverines would like nothing more than keeping that streak going while winning the outright title themselves for the first time since 2003 (and 1997 before that). Both coaches have success in this streaky rivalry, as Jim Tressel holds a 61-13 overall record in six years at OSU with a 4-1 bowl record and a 4-1 record against Michigan. Lloyd Carr holds a 113-34 overall record in twelve seasons at UM with a 5-6 bowl record and a 6-5 record against the Buckeyes. As quickly as Carr escaped the hot seat of a 7-5 season last year and a 1-4 record against OSU in the last five years by starting 11-0 this year, he will be right back on the hot seat if the undefeated Wolverines do not ruin another undefeated Buckeye season as they did in the 1990’s. There’s a lot more than a trip to Glendale riding on this game!

One final interesting note about this game you may not know: the greatest spectacle and the loudest cheers Saturday might be for “The Best Damn Band In The Land,” the OSU Marching Band. When TBDBITL takes the field to do their signature Script Ohio, the band will be performing it in front of the creator of Script Ohio. The Michigan band performed the first Script Ohio in 1932 and OSU adapted it to what it is today in 1936. It may surprise some that on some levels, Michigan and Ohio State can get along, and Script Ohio is proof of this. Just don’t expect the football teams to be so congenial!

Turning to the X’s and O’s of the top game of the week, the most hyped matchup will be Michigan’s great defense against Ohio State’s prolific offense. Ohio State has a balanced attack, gaining around 220 passing yards per game and 180 rushing per outing. The leader is undoubtedly QB Troy Smith, who has become more of a pocket passer this season after ripping up defenses like Michigan in past years with his running ability. Smith has two great tailbacks to rely on in Antonio Pittman and Beanie Wells, and the best set of wide receivers in college football to throw to, featuring well-known Teddy Ginn Jr. and Anthony Gonzalez as well as improving Brian Robiskie and Roy Hall. The only unit to stop this offense was Illinois, who put up an amazing effort to hold the Buckeyes to 25 yards of offense in the second half of the close 17-10 OSU win.

Michigan’s defense, though, will be a whole new level of competition for the OSU offense. Only Texas had a defense of championship caliber, and that experience was 10 weeks ago. Michigan only gives up 231 total yards per game on defense (3rd in the country), and the most impressive stat is the less than 30 yards per game rushing allowed by this unit. You do not stop the run without a great front seven, and the defensive line, including DE LaMarr Woodley, is one to remember at Michigan. Michigan also has help stopping the pass from their shut-down corner Leon Hall. The OSU offensive line is good (and will be intact for the first time in weeks with Alex Boone coming back), but Michigan will certainly have a slight advantage in the trenches here. If Woodley and company can get to Troy Smith quickly enough, Smith will have a tough decision between taking hits from good UM linebackers or risking interceptions by forcing the pass. With a talent like Smith who can run the ball, Michigan will not be able to hold Pittman, Wells, and Smith under 100 yards rushing, let alone 30. The key will be can Michigan stop the prolific passing game, which has hurt them a little in Big Ten play. Michigan will shut the Buckeyes down more than usual, but do not expect the Buckeyes to become one-dimensional, and do not expect them to score fewer than 17 points on offense.

Perhaps the more critical battle is the other side of the ball, where Ohio State’s “silver bullet” defense takes on Michigan’s offense and the familiar duo of QB Chad Henne and RB Mike Hart. Henne is not a threat like Smith on the ground, but when he gets time, he is just as accurate throwing the ball. Henne also has a great group of wide receivers to throw to, including superstar Mario Manningham as well as Steve Breaston and Adrian Arrington. The key to the Michigan offense is not the quarterback though; it is the running game and Mike Hart. With Hart not healthy for last season’s battle in Michigan Stadium, UM was stifled by the Buckeye defense and only gained 32 rushing yards. This ended up being crucial as Michigan could not put the game away with a two-score lead in the fourth quarter and had to give the ball to Smith, Gonzalez, and company who drove down the field twice to lock up a 25-21 victory. Hart is not injured this year though, and the offense runs a lot better with his presence.

The Buckeye defense replaced 3 first-round draft choices and 9 starters this season, but the Silver Bullets are statistically better than last year. The Buckeyes have won the turnover battle more often than not, grabbing 21 interceptions and a 1.27 turnover margin this season (3rd in the nation). The top scoring defense in the nation has given up quite a few rushing yards from time to time (but still only 90 YPG, 11th in the nation) and let teams drive across the 50 yard line many times, but the cliché “bend but not break” truly defines this defensive unit. DL Quinn Pitcock and LB James Laurinitis are the undoubted leaders of the team, but the Buckeyes also feature what may be the best corner in the game in Malcolm Jenkins. Despite the speed of the linebackers, the only big plays on this defense have come by option plays, draw plays, and screen passes. Assuming Henne will not run the option, the key becomes how the Michigan offense blocks for Hart in draw and screen plays. I think Hart gets over 100 yards, but Michigan will have to find a way to pass on the Buckeye defense to win.

There are lots of intangibles in this game, and I’ll start with the turnover battle. Both teams have more than a +1 turnover margin per game, and the mistakes will be even more crucial in a game like this. For Michigan, the film from last week’s Northwestern game should be telling. NU turned the ball over on their first possession and the Buckeyes went in for a score, and you just get the feeling that this got into Northwestern’s heads as the problem snowballed into two more quick turnovers and a fast 21-0 Buckeye lead. Michigan has had trouble beating the Buckeyes in the past five years, and make no mistake that they are subject to the same mentality if the Buckeyes get an early turnover and grab an quick two-score lead. This happened to the Buckeyes many times in the 90’s and might happen to the Wolverines this weekend.

The second intangible is special teams play. Both teams employ top kickers, OSU's Aaron Pettrey and UM's Garrett Rivas, who have only missed three field goals all season. Both have plenty of leg to kickoff through the endzone, and both can make 50+ yard field goals if necessary. Both punters are also decent, but the key here will be not making mistakes in punting to Steve Breaston or Ted Ginn. Ginn has been bottled up this season except for one punt return at Michigan State, but do not think he is less of a threat to take it to the house than Breaston. I am sure both teams drilled the punt and punt return stop tons this week, as one mistake in this aspect of the game could win or lose the contest. I think both punt returners have decent days, but I do not see any momentum changing returns like Desmond Howard’s “Heisman” return in 1991. The kickers will be crucial as both will certainly have to come up with big field goals when the great defenses stifle the two offenses within the 35 yard line.

The final three X-factors can be covered quickly: coaching, home field, and weather. Both teams field wonderful coaching staffs, and both Carr and Tressel have been preparing for this game for the entire season. This is an opportunity for Carr to fully get off the hot seat after a 7-5 season a year ago, as another crushing defeat of an undefeated Buckeyes team would bring back the Michigan swagger of the 90’s as well as send the Wolverines to the national title game. To do so in the Horseshoe where Tressel is 2-0 against UM and 37-4 at Ohio Stadium would be all the more legendary in a game which will automatically be at the top of the historical list in this rivalry. Both coaches are fantastic, but Carr might get the boot nevertheless if his record against Tressel drops to 1-5 and he loses this game with so much at stake for the Wolverines.

The final factors are home-field advantage and weather. The Buckeyes have struggled offensively in bad weather, barely getting by Illinois 17-10 and Penn State 28-6 (it was 14-6 late in the fourth quarter) this season, and their last loss was 17-10 in awful conditions at Penn State last season. Fortunately for the Buckeyes, the weather forecast looks nice with temperatures in the mid to upper-40’s, partly cloudy skies, and a less than 10% chance of rain. The home field advantage plays a big role in this rivalry, as it is very hard to play in front of 100,000-plus hostile fans in both stadiums. The last time Michigan came out of Columbus with a victory was 2000, but the talent level of the Buckeyes was not as good as it is now and John Cooper had serious issues as coach of the Buckeyes getting over the Michigan game and mystique. Michigan is forced to come out swinging early in this game to get the crowd out of it, and this may open them up to mistakes and turnovers. UM cannot afford to get behind and get the crowd into the game, as Ohio Stadium has been dead in the previous home blowouts this season and the fans are dying to get loud and crazy for a close game. No doubt the weather and home-field are going to help the Buckeyes.

While writing that last paragraph, I forgot to mention the one (truly final) thing that may mess with the home-field advantage. Ohio State has had trouble with the natural grass field this season and may be looking to change to the field turf Michigan and many other stadiums have chosen recently. The field was replaced mid-season before the Bowling Green game, but it was not ready and not good in October. The field was replaced after the Minnesota game 3 weeks ago, and nobody will know if the grass has had time to grow into the surface at Ohio Stadium until Saturday. If the field is a mess, then the running game will be even more paramount as the wide receivers will struggle to make tight cuts on the field. I think the field will be in good shape, but if it is not, then the Wolverines will have an advantage based on the matchups.

Before I get into my selection for the Big Game, let’s switch gears for a moment to cover the other important games of the week and what happened a week ago. Last weekend was perhaps the best weekend of the year alongside September’s “Separation Saturday.” The Rutgers comeback was amazing on Thursday night (and I’ll brag about saying Rutgers would hold Louisville under 30 points and win the game by 3 in last week’s column because sometimes even I can get a game right), and the door was open for all the one-loss teams to make a statement. They certainly did, as Texas lost to Kansas State, Florida got lucky beating South Carolina at home, California got caught looking ahead by Arizona, and Auburn got unbelievably stomped at home by Georgia.

There were teams that took advantage though, and Arkansas (big win over Tennessee), Rutgers, USC (big win over Oregon), and Notre Dame seized the moment and won convincingly. Each of these teams were all but out of the national title picture last week, and now they are the frontrunners. I put all of them in my top 6 as I think all are playing more deserving football than Florida. Time will tell which of these teams will take advantage of all the others falling down last weekend.

Finally we turn to the three games of the week, and my first selection is Maryland at Boston College. While Wake Forest seems to be running away with the Atlantic division, these are the only two teams left that can stop the Demon Deacons from meeting Georgia Tech for the BCS bowl slot. Maryland just seems to keep getting lucky, as six of their wins (8-2 record) have come in very close games. UM is not the kind of team that blows you out, especially on the road. Boston College is led by a good offense and QB Matt Ryan, and all of the BC losses have been close. Both teams will have to avoid mistakes to win this game, and I think Boston College is ready to recover from tough losses and knock the luck out of Ralph Friegden’s Terrapins. BC wins by 3.

The games following the UM-OSU game are both great battles, but I think California at USC is far more relevant than Virginia Tech at Wake Forest (really Wake Forest has been unbeatable at home and the Hokies are not playing for anything now). California had been rolling through the Pac-10 easily and had won all their games following a disappointing opener at Tennessee, but then the Golden Bears fell victim to Arizona last week. USC is back on top of the world, #3 in the BCS after all the upsets again just two weeks after losing to Oregon State and dropping from that spot. This game is still for the Pac-10 title, and both might be playing for the Rose Bowl considering USC’s tough game against Notre Dame next weekend. California’s two losses have come when QB Nathan Longshore is pressured by the defense, but Cal RB DeSean Jackson has been effective in all games this year. If USC can get pressure on Longshore and not give up the big plays down the field, the Trojans will win easily as their QB John David Booty and RB Chauncey Washington are playing very well now. You have to like Pete Carroll’s chances at home, but I doubt the Trojans have enough to get through this three week gauntlet unscathed. California will recover to ruin the Trojans’ season, and I project a 4 point upset.

And finally, we get to the heart of the matter above, Michigan at Ohio State. The Wolverines will have a decent day offensively, but I question if they can keep up with Troy Smith and company. If Antonio Pittman has a good day running, then Michigan’s defense has failed and the Wolverines will probably lose. Michigan has had trouble stopping Troy Smith in the past, and I really think his decision-making as a pocket passer this season makes him even more potent against Michigan. Two keys to a Wolverine victory are Mike Hart and Steve Breaston. If Breaston avoids dropping passes like he has all season and gives the Wolverines good field position on punt and kick returns, the task will become much easier for UM. If Michigan can establish a running game and control the clock, they can not only ice the game if ahead but also keep the pace of the game slow enough to limit Buckeye scoring opportunities. Michigan is tough to beat in close games, and I see this becoming another defensive battle like 2002 (OSU won 14-9 on a last-second goal-line interception). Michigan has been perfect at ruining Ohio State seasons with the exception of 2002 in the past 15 years and OSU has not been able to return the favor to good Wolverine teams in 2003 and 1997. I think Michigan therefore continues the history and...

Not so fast my friends! This is a different Buckeye era. The Buckeyes have won 4 out of 5 over their rival and didn’t choke in 2002. Jim Tressel is a much better coach than John Cooper was, and all of a sudden the Buckeyes have the unbeatable swagger. There’s no way Troy Smith and the Buckeyes let Michigan come into their house and leave undefeated while shattering OSU dreams. OSU grinds out a big win after Michigan makes one critical turnover to change the momentum in the second half. OSU wins by a 24-20 margin.

GOTW 2006 Record to Date: 23-10
Last Week: 3-0 (a nice recovery from my first 0-3 week)

Fitzy’s Top 10 - Week 12
1. Ohio State (11-0)
2. Michigan (11-0)
3. Arkansas (9-1)
4. Rutgers (9-0)
5. USC (8-1)
6. Notre Dame (9-1)
7. Florida (9-1)
8. LSU (8-2)
9. West Virginia (8-1)
10. Wake Forest (9-1)

Perhaps the only thing sweeter than getting to attend the OSU-UM game this weekend is the fact that I only had to pay $58 for two tickets to the game (that’s $29 apiece). No Nickelback, while I love your music I do not care how much rock star salary you guys are willing to pay me to see the game. I personally wouldn’t miss it for the world. Some years it pays to be a Buckeye (student). Depending on how the game goes (in other words, if it is a good game), I will return to this game next week to discuss the possibility of a rematch in Glendale and show a little blog from the game for those who cannot get in Saturday. Have a great week, and we’ll see you here again soon!

BIG EAST: IT'S THURSDAY AND HERE WE GO AGAIN

Remember back just two months ago when the best sportswriters asked if a national title could be won on Thursdays? Of course we were referring to West Virginia, but the focus was not too far off. After Louisville rid WVU of its national title contention, the Thursday question is still legitimate, as the Big East appears destined to try to send the conference champion (who plays a lot on Thursdays) to Glendale. For the Big East, this week must have seemed like a lot of déjà vu.

The country has been in an uproar crying over just how bad the football on the field was last Thursday night in Kentucky. Sure, both offenses are good, but the defenses were so bad! Let me break it down for you like this: the last time a great quarterback led his team over a juggernaut featuring superstars at running back and quarterback, the strong defenses of both teams were rolled for 80 total points and almost 1000 yards of total offense. College football also crowned a national champion in that game, if you recall, and the stars I am referring to are Vince Young and Texas overcoming Matt Leinart and Reggie Bush at USC. That game had just as much exposure as the Thursday night WVU-UL game this past week, but all the nation talked about after the game was how great those teams were. Keep that in mind the next time you start bashing how awful the Big East and the WVU-UL game were.

The Big East has seen this disrespect all before, as the conference was the butt of all jokes after Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College all defected to supposed greener pastures (how’s that working out ACC?). Two very similar games in all respects above, and the Big East contest is somehow a whole lot different than the latest “best championship game ever.” I am not delusional enough to think any of the three Big East powerhouses could keep up with Ohio State and Michigan over the long haul, but each team has enough talent to make the game interesting if nothing else. If the Big Ten powers bring the effort from last week (Michigan scraped by Ball State and Ohio State looked very beatable in the second half at Illinois), any of the Big East teams could take them down. That’s why they play the games, and why an undefeated major conference team (read: Rutgers or Louisville) deserves to be in a championship game much more than any one-loss team.

Speaking of repeats for the Big East, the conference keeps the national spotlight again this week on Thursday night as Louisville moves from one battle of undefeated teams right into another against Rutgers. The conference may see this as a chance to regain a little respect from last week, but the fans and sportswriters of America will be looking for any fatal flaws in both teams. With all eyes on the Big Ten showdown November 18, this is really the last chance for the Big East to make a definitive statement. I fully expect more great football and a national title game frontrunner to emerge from this game (yes, even if it is Rutgers). Just remember Big East fans: if you follow West Virginia’s spanking of Georgia in the BCS last year with an undefeated team and championship this season in the BCS, nobody will be able to deny you from a seat at the table anymore.

In a little bit of a look-ahead to next week’s column, what happened to Michigan and Ohio State last weekend? The Wolverines led 31-12 before having to stop Ball State four times inside the ten yard line to preserve a 34-26 victory. The Buckeyes, meanwhile, netted a pathetic 25 yards of offense in the second half of a 17-10 win at Illinois. I really think a lot of the problems are in some regard injury-related. Mario Manningham was not really back against Ball State, and Michigan has not been able to blow away opponents since the prolific wide receiver went down with knee surgery a month ago. Ohio State has not had offensive lineman Alex Boone and veteran defensive lineman (there’s only two returning starters as you might recall) Quinn Pitcock for the past two weeks either. The Buckeye line was not able to open up running holes without Boone, and the defense has obviously missed the presence and leadership of Pitcock (although LB James Laurinitis has led admirably). These injuries might not seem significant as both teams keep winning, but I see big holes until these three gentlemen get back up to speed.

A lot of people just assumed Michigan and OSU were looking ahead two weeks and looking past their opponents. I suppose this is possible, but knowing the business-like nature of Jim Tressel and his team, it is hard to imagine this was the case. Lloyd Carr knows the dangers of looking forward as well, so I really doubt this explanation. On the bright side, both teams get much better opponents this week (UM at Indiana, OSU at Northwestern) who will not be overlooked. Indiana and Northwestern have both punished Iowa for looking ahead to big games against Michigan and Wisconsin, and both teams will do the same to #1 and #2 if it happens again this week. The games might not be as interesting assuming the top dogs keep the focus for four quarters this week, but trust me, the opponents are better than last week. One more note: nothing helps a team regain championship focus like a close call, so the Wolverines and Buckeyes should be more than ready to play this week and prepare for the big game next week.

Remember two weeks ago when everybody was trying to figure out the plethora of one-loss teams in college football? Just one week into the great month of November, and the number of one-loss teams has been trimmed to ten, as well as the undefeated list being trimmed to five. The amazing thing is all of these ten losses combined have come from great teams (Ohio State, Auburn, Arkansas, Oregon State, Tennessee, Michigan, Louisville, USC, Michigan again, and Clemson). With the exception of Oregon State, all of these teams are either undefeated or one-loss teams, or they have been very recently in the cases of Tennessee and Clemson. This is why it is so hard to determine which of these teams is the best, as really only USC has a questionable loss in the bunch. At least November has more showdowns coming up which will hopefully sort this out on the field.

On a slightly related note, wouldn’t it just be peachy if college football could determine all this on the field in a playoff system? Just to revisit last week’s playoff projections, let’s see how the playoff would look this week compared to the BCS bowl projections:

PLAYOFFS (ranked by current BCS standings)
#1 Ohio State vs. #19 Wake Forest
#4 Florida vs. #5 Texas
#3 Louisville vs. #8 California
#2 Michigan vs. #14 Boise State

BCS BOWL SYSTEM
Championship: #1 Ohio State vs. #3 Louisville
Rose: #8 California vs. #2 Michigan
Sugar: #4 Florida vs. #9 Notre Dame
Orange: #19 Wake Forest vs. #6 Auburn
Fiesta: #5 Texas vs. #14 Boise State

I look at the bowl projections and only hope that the games start to look a little better as teams shuffle around in November in conference play. The first round of playoff games look more exciting than that bowl line-up. No beating of the dead horses though, so I promise no revisiting this until the end of the season, but I will start projecting BCS bowls again next week. One more note about the BCS: there is something strange about tuning into pro football to see the unveiling of the BCS standings and hearing pro football analysts try to make sense of it. (I’m sorry, but Terry Bradshaw has no clue, despite voting in the Harris poll.) The questions they ask of “expert” Barry Alvarez are laughable every Sunday. Let’s hope the entertainment continues as the BCS continues down the path of crashing and burning (hopefully).

Another week, more big games... The first game of the week will be Oregon at USC. Fortunately for California, USC’s loss to Oregon State makes every game a must-win if the Trojans wish to go BCS bowling again. The Ducks have seemed to be on cruise control after losing at California, going 3-1 over mediocre opposition the past few weeks. USC recovered from the shocking loss at Oregon State by slicing up Stanford’s defense last weekend, and now faces a tough three-game home stretch against Oregon, California, and Notre Dame. Both teams should put up plenty of points as two prolific offenses combat two very mediocre defenses. Oregon has had nice balance between RB Jonathan Stewart and QB Dennis Dixon, and USC will have to slow perhaps the best rushing attack it has faced this season. Oregon’s defense has the unenviable task of trying to stop John David Booty from going crazy and adding to his amazing numbers (1966 passing yards, 19 TD to only 5 INT). I think USC will not be caught looking ahead to the bigger battles with California and Notre Dame, and without multiple Trojan turnovers the Ducks really cannot keep up. USC wins by 14.

The second game of the week is another SEC battle between Tennessee and Arkansas. Assuming Arkansas can defeat Mississippi State next weekend, the Razorbacks need only to defeat the Volunteers or LSU in two weeks to play Florida in the SEC title game. Both teams have had quarterback troubles lately, as injured Erik Ainge has been benched for Tennessee and unproductive true freshman Mitch Mustain has been downgraded to second-string this week by Arkansas. This should spell trouble more for Tennessee, as the Volunteer running attack is terrible. Arkansas has a nice running game led by Darren McFadden, who just seems to get better and better as the season rolls along. The Razorbacks defense could keep Tennessee in the game long enough for the Volunteers to make a play to win the game, but I think Arkansas can grab a quick lead at home and sit on it with the superior running game. Tennessee has nothing to play for except spoiling Arkansas’s season, and I really doubt the Volunteers have motivation to do even that. Arkansas moves one step closer to the SEC title game with a 4 point win.

The game of the week is again the aforementioned battle of the undefeateds, Louisville at Rutgers. Unlike WVU and Louisville, the nation is really getting their first look at Rutgers this season on Thursday night. Rutgers is just behind Ohio State in points allowed per game, and their defense is a top 5 unit which matches up nicely against Louisville’s top 5 offense. This is the first time Rutgers has ever played a game when both teams are ranked, so the national spotlight may be too much for the Scarlet Knights to handle. QB Brian Brohm will again lead his strong passing attack, but the Cardinals can run the ball very well also. Rutgers has impressive wins shutting down the offenses of Pittsburgh, Illinois, and Ohio (yes, the Bobcats are better than you think), but Louisville is a whole new level. Rutgers has no passing game and has gotten by with a good running attack led by Ray Rice. Louisville can clearly be run on, as WVU and Steve Slaton proved last week, but will the Cardinal defense stiffen up when there is no legitimate threat in the passing game? All the X-factors seem to lean toward Louisville, but I think Rutgers steps up and shocks the world with a tough win at home. The defense holds the Cardinals below 30 points, allowing the offense to do just enough to win the game. Rutgers by 3.

GOTW 2006 Record to Date: 20-10
Last Week: 0-3 (Ouch, first time all season)

Fitzy’s Top 10 - Week 11
1. Ohio State (10-0)
2. Michigan (10-0)
3. Texas (9-1)
4. Auburn (9-1)
5. Florida (8-1)
6. Louisville (8-0)
7. Rutgers (8-0)
8. California (8-1)
9. Arkansas (8-1)
10. USC (7-1)

Unlike my fellow writer from Ohio on this website, I have not-so-patiently waited to preview the game of the year, so expect a full analysis of OSU-UM next week. Until then, enjoy the second week of November. (I know all my Democrat friends are. It seems the country is unhappy with our leadership, so now if we could just get a BCS referendum on the ballot for 2007). See you next week!

NO DOUBT: NOVEMBER BRINGS THE TRUE BATTLES

Pardon me if I happened to sleep through the last two weeks of October. When the seven undefeated teams left have a stretch of two weeks where the hardest games were against the likes of Indiana, Syracuse, Oregon State, Iowa, and Pittsburgh.... Let’s just say the plethora of one-loss teams was much more entertaining, especially considering each one either lost or had scares over the two weeks.

Now the calendars turn again, and November brings the best college football has to offer: rivalry games, conference title battles, and paring of the undefeated teams down to no more than three. Before we look ahead, let’s look back at the cornerstone middle month of the season.

October started with 13 undefeated teams, and this number was halved with losses by Auburn, Florida, USC, Georgia, Oregon, Missouri, and Wake Forest. This sets up a great November as five of the left undefeated teams left play each other in league play in the Big East and Big Ten, while Boise State will be happy with any BCS spot, let alone one in Glendale. Even the winless were pared down noticeably in October, as Colorado, Miami (OH), Eastern Michigan, San Diego State, Utah State, and most notably Temple (who broke a 20-game losing streak against Bowling Green this past weekend) all won their first games. This leaves Duke, Florida International, and Stanford as the only remaining winless teams. Here’s hoping each one finds a way to make the players happy with one win or two in November.

Despite losing seven of the undefeated teams, October created a BCS debate over the mess that might happen if the Big Ten and Big East do not both produce undefeated champions (who in that case should meet in Glendale for the title). October exploded the number of one-loss teams who may not look very pretty but all have a claim to the BCS, and perhaps even the title game, if more undefeated teams falter than expected. One loss teams include those who have a shot at Glendale (Texas, Notre Dame, California, USC, Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas, Auburn) and those who are long-shots for the national title game (Boston College, Wake Forest, Texas A&M, Wisconsin, Tulsa). That’s an astounding eight teams who will have the right to speak up if fewer than two major undefeated teams escape November. Let the debate begin.

Assuming the 19 undefeated and one-loss teams are the only title contenders, here is why November is so exciting. Look at the schedule of games upcoming this month (and on December 2) that involve these teams on both sides.

11/2: West Virginia at Louisville
11/4: Boston College at Wake Forest
11/9: Louisville at Rutgers
11/11: Tennessee at Arkansas
11/18: Michigan at Ohio State, California at USC
11/24: Texas A&M at Texas
11/25: Notre Dame at USC
12/2: Rutgers at West Virginia, SEC Title Game (Florida/Tennessee v. Arkansas/Auburn)

The most exciting part of the above schedule is that the games are spread out, two every week for the remainder of the season. Also, 16 of the 19 teams will play in one of these showdowns (Wisconsin, Tulsa, and Boise State are the only ones left out and each is practically a non-player in the national title picture). Every team will be tested at least once, and hopefully these games combined with a healthy dose of November upsets will pare the field of contenders down to a reasonable number. With the exception of the afternoon of 11/18 (yes, I have tickets to the UM-OSU game and no, I’m not selling even though I could get thousands for the pair), I hope to witness each of these games on TV as the month progresses. This list is also a nice preview of the games of the week I will be previewing every week for the rest of the season barring surprises early in the month. The only thing to be sure of is that this should be a November to remember.

Some notable notes relating to October and my recent articles: North Carolina coach John Bunting pulled an end run and won the race to the first pink slip of 2006-07. In other news, Larry Coker and John L. Smith continue to fight over second place in this race. (UPDATE: Not to be outdone, just before this article went up, MSU fired John L., so Sparty wins the pink slip race of 2006 over the Hurricanes.) USC saw a 38-game regular season winning streak snapped by Oregon State this weekend. While I agree that Pete Carroll and his staff deserve a lot of credit for coaching and recruiting better than any other West Coast team, this streak (and the 27 straight Pac-10 win streak snapped Saturday) also shows that the conference is a one-trick pony, unlike better conferences such as the SEC and the Big Ten. Keep in mind that the middle class of the Pac-10 can hold their own with all the other major conferences, but over the past five years, no other team can claim to be better than middle class. Quite a few teams around the country could have similar numbers in the Pac-10, but still a congratulations goes out to USC for such dominance and being a top program without a lot of off-the-field problems (yes Miami, that’s aimed at you).

To set the first volley in the BCS discussions, allow me to explain my thinking on this year’s title race (and I admit, until the games above play themselves out on the field, nothing is concrete). I would currently project Ohio State and West Virginia meeting in a border clash down in Glendale because OSU is simply a class better than everyone else (and gets Michigan at home), while West Virginia knows how to handle success better than Louisville and Rutgers. I also believe that if only two major conference champions are undefeated, they should obviously play for the national title if the regular season is truly supposed to be important.

The first problem is what happens if the Big East powers all go 1-1 in the November games? I think the most likely replacements are the Notre Dame/USC winner, Texas, and the SEC Champion. Just based on computer rankings and public perception (which determines human poll ranks), the SEC Champion would probably come out on top due to winning the toughest conference in college football. A second problem is what happens to the above debate if the Ohio State/Michigan game is close? Ohio State has clearly blown away all competition, so should the Buckeyes be punished if they lose one of the two #1 vs. #2 games this season by a close margin while the other contenders lost to worse competition (SEC Champion, Big East Champion, USC) or by a larger margin (Notre Dame, Texas)? How could you justify putting Notre Dame in over Michigan, or Texas over Ohio State? I know the public does not like rematches generally, but if the Ohio State and Michigan game is such a great close battle, who would rather see (for example) the Buckeyes blast some lesser team in the title game? All these questions will be at the forefront of the debate as November races along.

All of this leads to my final conclusion: if there is no way to determine with human polls and computers which one-loss team is most deserving to play for a national title, why is there not more outcry for a playoff? I know a four-game playoff would be more likely and a step in the right direction, but I think the perfect system would pit 8 teams in a single elimination format. No conference would be allowed to have more than two teams in the playoff, and six spots would be automatic bids for BCS conference champions. If you do not like a lesser team winning a conference title game, get rid of the conference title game and declare an outright winner some other way. The other two spots would be automatic for undefeated non-BCS conference champions (or undefeated Notre Dame), or at-large based on the BCS standings. Looking at last season for example, this would have set up the following playoffs:

2006 NATIONAL CHAMPION PLAYOFF (Final BCS Rank shown)
#1 USC vs. #22 Florida State
#4 Ohio State vs. #5 Oregon
#3 Penn State vs. #7 Georgia
#2 Texas vs. #11 West Virginia

This system leaves out three notable teams: #6 Notre Dame, who just missed out on an at-large bid behind Ohio State and Oregon (and that’s the breaks of the system); #8 Miami (who did not even play in their conference title game); #9 Auburn (same as Miami); and #10 Virginia Tech (who lost to Florida State in the ACC title game). Certainly each of these teams has an argument they should be included in the top 8 teams in the nation, but the system must continue to reward conference champions, no matter how lowly they seem. Remember that Florida State gave Penn State all they could handle and West Virginia beat Georgia, while Notre Dame got beat handily by the Buckeyes. This seems to indicate a fair national champion would have been best determined on the field last season.

Just for an interesting aside, this is how the playoff would look if the season ended today:

2006 NATIONAL TITLE PLAYOFF
#1 Ohio State vs. #15 Boston College
#4 Florida vs. #7 Texas
#3 West Virginia vs. #8 USC
#2 Michigan vs. #14 Boise State

Yes this is unrealistic because it ignores the upcoming WVU/UL and OSU/UM games and leaves out undefeated Rutgers, but this system looks decent at the end of October and will only look better as the games work themselves out in November. I know teams like Louisville, Auburn, Notre Dame, and Tennessee are good teams, but I still think a legitimate national champion could be found with the above bracket. Food for thought, and I hope to revisit this issue at the end of the season to see if the result would be as reasonable as the 2005 bracket would have been.

Now turning to the top three games of the weekend, we start in the SEC as LSU (6-2) goes to Tennessee (7-1) to take on the Volunteers. LSU has had a killer schedule from the SEC, losing on the road to Auburn and Florida both, and now the Bayou Bengals get another top SEC team on the road. Tennessee is one point away from being undefeated, and Erik Ainge has really transformed into something Manning-like this season. Jamarcus Russell is no slouch either, and Tennessee’s defense will be tested more than last week when they won but played poorly at South Carolina. Although I think LSU fields a little better team overall and defensively, I do not think this is enough to win on old Rocky Top against a team with everything to lose. Tennessee keeps pace with Florida and wins by 7.

The second game of the week is Boston College at Wake Forest, a battle for the ACC Atlantic division lead. After Georgia Tech took out Clemson, only Maryland and these two teams remain atop the division with one loss. QB Matt Ryan has been a good leader for the Eagles this season, but the rushing attack has left a little to be desired. Boston College probably wishes it had the loss to NC State back, but the Eagles still completely control their destiny (as do Maryland and Wake Forest for now). Wake has been making the most of its offense, not gaining 300 yards per game but still getting just enough points to win. The main question will be how does Riley Skinner step up in a huge game, as Wake Forest’s only loss to Clemson was just a complete offensive meltdown by the Demon Deacons. Avoid those mistakes, and Wake Forest will get the job done. I think BC is the team to beat, though, and I’ll pick the Eagles by 3.

The game of the week is without a doubt on Thursday night when undefeated West Virginia travels over to the Commonwealth to take on Louisville. This game last year was a surprise as West Virginia upset the Cardinals after trailing by 17 late and went on to win a BCS bowl. This game should again be a shootout, as both teams bring some of the best offense to the field. West Virginia has had a very easy schedule to this point, and the Mountaineers say they can beat anyone with their running game alone (QB Pat White’s passing numbers are sub-par to say the least). White and standout RB Steve Slaton combine to make the most prolific rushing attack in Division I-A (319 yards per game). Louisville has QB Brian Brohm back from an early season injury, and he has not missed a beat thus far. UL has nice balance on offense, and it will be interesting to see if the Cards can take advantage of WVU’s one-dimensional attack enough to win. If the scoring stays in the 30’s, I think Louisville has a chance. Unfortunately for them, though, I think West Virginia is ready to put up 45 in the biggest game of their season. WVU wins by 10.

GOTW 2006 Record to Date: 20-7
Last Week: 2-1

FAB 15 VOTE - WEEK 10 1. Ohio State (9-0)
2. Michigan (9-0)
3. West Virginia (7-0)
4. Louisville (7-0)
5. Tennessee (7-1)
6. Texas (8-1)
7. Florida (7-1)
8. Auburn (8-1)
9. California (7-1)
10. Arkansas (7-1)

I did have to leave out one more intriguing game between ranked teams: Oklahoma at Texas A&M. The Aggies only have one loss and winning this game would make the game against Texas on 11/24 a huge battle for the division title. There are many games to enjoy this weekend, and hopefully an upset or two clears up the title picture this week. Have a fantastic first week of November!

WHAT'S GOING ON WITH THE LITTLE GUYS?

The BCS expanded to five games this year, with one of the main reasons being to make more opportunities for non-BCS schools to get into the big games. Six conference champions and a good Notre Dame team used to leave one at-large spot for non-BCS schools to try and grab, and they were up against the best non-champion school of the BCS conferences, which effectively shut out the non-BCS leagues. Now there are three spots out of ten to try and grab, meaning much better odds. Apparently these conferences missed this memo from the BCS though.

Boise State appears poised to take one of those BCS spots, but everyone knows the Broncos must stay undefeated or watch their BCS dreams disappear. TCU seemed ready to take the BCS up on its offer as well, but the Horned Frogs suddenly dropped off the face of the planet after two losses. Assuming Boise State is indeed the only team that can think about sniffing the BCS money this season (and with no other non-BCS school having fewer than 2 losses, this conclusion seems likely), what is left for the non-BCS conferences come this post-season? Let’s take a look at how all the other conferences currently stand and their bowl outlook at this point midway through the season.

Conference USA

This conference actually has five guaranteed bowl spots to claim, more than any other non-BCS conference. The Liberty Bowl gets the conference champion (vs. SEC), the GMAC Bowl takes second choice (vs. MAC), followed by the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces (in Fort Worth vs. MWC), Birmingham (vs. Big East), and New Orleans (vs. Sun Belt) bowls. The conference also has an automatic spot in the Hawaii Bowl if C-USA has six bowl eligible teams and if the Pac-10 does not have a sixth team for the spot. (Currently I would project this will be filled by a Pac-10 team since seven to eight of them should be bowl eligible at the end of the year.)

The East division has been beaten up this season, with Southern Miss currently carrying the only winning record (4-3). With East Carolina (3-4) having a tough schedule remaining and each other division team already having 5 losses, the East's postseason contribution should be limited to Southern Miss only. The West division is having much better days, as Tulsa (6-1) and Houston (5-3) are certainly going to be bowl eligible and UTEP (4-3) has a favorable schedule as well. SMU is currently 4-4 with two very winnable games left at Rice and home against UAB, so I expect the Mustangs to be in the mix as well. I predict Tulsa will continue rolling to the C-USA title and Liberty Bowl, while Southern Miss drops down past Houston and maybe even UTEP when the bowls come calling.

Bowl Locks: Tulsa, Houston, UTEP, Southern Miss
Bubble Teams: SMU, East Carolina, UAB

Mid-American Conference

The MAC only has three bowl tie-ins for this season. The Motor City bowl takes the champion and places them against the Big 10 #7 (which could be an at-large since Michigan and Ohio State in the BCS means this would be an 8th Big Ten bowl eligible team, and 4-4 Indiana and 4-4 Michigan State would both have to get to six wins for this to happen). The GMAC bowl takes MAC #2 against C-USA #2, and the new International Bowl in Toronto takes MAC #3 against Big East #4-5. There will also probably be opportunities for the MAC to fill in one or two at-large spots left open by the Big 12 or other major conferences with too many spots to fill. The exciting part of this three bowl schedule is that the International and GMAC bowls have moved back to after the BCS bowls but right before the BCS title game January 8, so a lot of national attention will be available.

In the East division, only three teams can merit consideration for bowls. Kent State (5-2) and Ohio (5-3) will play this week, likely for the East division title, and both should be bowl eligible. Bowling Green (4-4) also has an easy schedule the remainder of the season, having already played Kent State, Ohio, and West division leader Central Michigan, but the Falcons have not been impressive other than the road win at Ohio. The West division is Central Michigan’s to lose at 5-3 (5-0 in conference). Western Michigan (5-2) and Northern Illinois (5-3) also can become bowl eligible, but both must play Central Michigan yet (WMU defeated NIU earlier this season). After determining the best two teams in the MAC title game, the remainder of the bowl-possible teams will be hard to distinguish. I’ll hazard a guess of Ohio over Central Michigan in the MAC title game, with Western Michigan and Kent State being the next bowl choices. Bowling Green and Northern Illinois have some serious work to do.

Bowl Locks: Kent State, Central Michigan
Bubble Teams: Ohio, Western Michigan, Bowling Green, Northern Illinois

Mountain West Conference

Unlike the MAC, the Mountain West has all four bowl games on or before December 23, so the MWC will be the highlight of the beginning of bowl season. The MWC champ goes to the Las Vegas Bowl to take on Pac-10 #4, and the second choice goes to the Poinsetta Bowl in San Diego to battle an at-large team (probably another Pac-10 team). The Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth grabs a third team to play against C-USA #4, followed by the final selection by the New Mexico Bowl (vs. WAC #3).

BYU (5-2) has been the class of the conference since knocking off TCU three weeks ago, but the Cougars still have games against each of the next best five teams in the MWC. Wyoming (4-4) stumbled through a tough out-of-conference schedule in September, but a three game winning streak has them in position to perhaps be bowl eligible (if they can manage to win one of three remaining road games at TCU, BYU, and UNLV). TCU (4-2) still has six conference games left after a 0-2 start, but if the Horned Frogs get past Wyoming at home this week, the sailing is smooth until a December 2 showdown at home against Air Force. The Falcons (3-3), New Mexico (4-4), Utah (4-4), and Colorado State (4-3) all have talent, but it is hard to see which of these teams will rise above the rest to end up 8-4 or a more likely 7-5. The MWC could end up with a bunch of 6-6 teams, and if Air Force is one of these teams, they will be chosen for a bowl based on their out-of-conference schedule (Notre Dame, Tennessee, Navy, Army). I’ll guess the four bowl spots go to BYU, TCU, Air Force, and Wyoming.

Bowl Locks: BYU, TCU
Bubble Teams: Air Force, Wyoming, New Mexico, Utah, Colorado State

Sun Belt Conference

This conference is short, sweet, and simple: the champion goes to the New Orleans Bowl to play a C-USA representative, and everybody else stays home. This makes for a very interesting conference race as Arkansas State is currently 3-0 (5-2), Middle Tennessee State is also 3-0 (4-3), Louisiana-Lafayette is 1-0 (4-2), and Troy is also 1-0 (2-4). The Ragin Cajuns of Lafayette seems a little worse than the rest, and Troy has had the worst record against the high-level competition each of these teams has played out-of-conference. This leaves Arkansas State and MTSU. ASU has a brutal November schedule at Auburn, hosting MTSU, at Troy, and at Lafayette. Middle Tennessee has looked good overall, but close wins against the worst of the conference looks worrisome. As long as Auburn does not beat up too much on Arkansas State’s morale, they should prevail over MTSU. Arkansas State finishes 8-4 (6-1) and parties down in the Big Easy.

Bowl Locks: None
Bubble Teams: Arkansas State, Middle Tennessee State, Troy

Western Athletic Conference

Normally there are only three bowl games for WAC teams, but if Boise State goes undefeated as in 2004, the WAC will send 4 teams to bowls because the Broncos will either be BCS bound or will be picked up by a big at-large spot in another bowl. The MPC Computers bowl takes a WAC team to play an ACC team or an at-large, the Hawaii Bowl matches the WAC against the Pac-10, and the New Mexico Bowl matches the WAC versus the MWC.

As mentioned previously, there is no reason to expect anything other than an undefeated season out of Boise State. A loss could not only lose BSU millions of BCS dollars, but also an extra bowl bid for the conference. Hawaii (5-2) has one road trip left in six remaining games to lowly Utah State, so the Warriors will clearly be bowl-eligible (and will most likely be grabbed by the hometown Hawaii Bowl). Idaho (4-4), San Jose State (4-2), and Nevada (4-3) all have games against each other remaining, so the team who loses both those games likely will not be heading to a bowl. It is too hard to tell anything else for two more weeks, as the big story is how far Boise State can take the WAC this year.

Bowl Locks: Boise State, Hawaii
Bubble Teams: San Jose State, Idaho, Nevada

Moving to this week’s top games, I’ll start in honor of the little guys by putting a MAC game that should decide the MAC East title and might decide the conference champion overall: Ohio at Kent State. Ohio has one of the most ineffective offenses in college football this season, but their strong defense has kept them in many games. Kent State has a dual-threat QB in Julian Edelman with 7 TD passing and 5 TD rushing. Edelman has had more rushes than RB Eugene Jarvis, but both have been successful. That combination will challenge Ohio’s defense on the edges in option, bootleg, and screen plays. Ohio QB Austen Everson can also run from time to time, and Kent State may have to watch for that. I think Ohio’s offense does just enough to win this game on the road, cementing Frank Solich’s new legacy at Athens and Ohio’s status as a MAC contender. Ohio wins by 4.

I could preview Miami and Georgia Tech in the ACC, but my choice for second best game of the week is Clemson visiting Virginia Tech on Thursday night. CU is a shady kicking game in double-OT away from being undefeated and clearly winning the Atlantic division, while Virginia Tech has been very disappointing in league play this season at 2-2 (with wins over hapless UNC and Duke). The Tigers must hope for a Boston College loss to win their division, and a loss would all but eliminate them from BCS contention, as well as ACC contention. Blacksburg is not as tough a place to play as it used to be, but a cornered Virginia Tech team can be very dangerous. One “Beamerball” type of special teams turnover could devastate Clemson if they are not careful. The Tigers' rushing attack of C.J. Spiller and James Davis (if he plays) should set the pace and help QB Will Proctor lead the team past the Hokies. Virginia Tech is just having a down year (and using two QBs on Thursday will not help), and Clemson coming to town will not help before the Hurricanes show up next for the Hokies. Clemson by 14.

The game of the week comes from the SEC, and while I have to give a little love to Tennessee and Phil Fulmer trying to get revenge on nemesis Steve Spurrier and South Carolina, the Cocktail Party is just slightly better, and thus is the game of the week. Florida has serious aspirations and has had two weeks to fix whatever went wrong against Auburn. This is the only real threat left on UF's SEC schedule before the championship game. Georgia has been exposed after starting 5-0, and the weak offense cannot carry the Bulldogs through an SEC schedule. QB Chris Leak should have all day to pass on the Georgia secondary, and Tim Tebow is always a threat. Georgia has no go-to guys on offense, and this will make 16 out of 17 for the Gators in this rivalry. Florida rolls by 21.

GOTW 2006 Record to Date: 18-6
Last Week: 3-0

Fitzy’s Top 10 – Week 9
1. Ohio State (8-0)
2. Michigan (8-0)
3. USC (6-0)
4. West Virginia (7-0)
5. Louisville (7-0)
6. Texas (7-1)
7. Tennessee (6-1)
8. Auburn (7-1)
9. California (7-1)
10. Clemson (7-1)

Did anybody hear Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis complaining about Texas jumping his team in the BCS despite “playing a similar game, having to come back luckily at the end?” What a joke! Texas beat a better team on the road, and Notre Dame should not be complaining since they will get paid millions either way thanks to their sweet BCS deal. With so many one-loss teams and no way to distinguish them, nobody should complain until we all see what happens on the field. Either the system will work (meaning USC and OSU/UM win out and make it work) or it will not, and then we can complain. Until then, every little move is not worth getting upset over Charlie (and everyone else). Hopefully another great week of football greets us this Saturday. Have a great week!