The 2007 college football season all comes down to this: will the craziness and endless upsets lead to two non-traditional national championship contenders, or will currently established national powers back into the national title game? In the season best suited for a playoff, the BCS appears to be in the clear as far as criticism goes following LSU’s upset against Arkansas’s “Wild Hog” offense. Rivalry week cleared up the picture significantly, with yet another 3 teams in the Top 6 dropping games. The situation at the top now has Missouri and West Virginia playing for the title, with a clear margin over third-ranked Ohio State, in large part due to Florida’s dismantling of the Buckeyes last January. If either of those teams slip up, OSU finds a way into their second consecutive national championship game. If both slip up, there will be absolute chaos as one-loss Kansas, undefeated Hawaii, and all kinds of two-loss teams will have a claim to the #2 spot.
Before analyzing the new BCS bowl projections, let’s take a look back at a memorable rivalry week. The 9/11 and Pearl Harbor speech apparently did not fire up the Crimson Tide enough, as Alabama dropped another Iron Bowl to Auburn and may not even make a bowl at 6-6. That wasn’t even the second best story in the SEC though, as each division leader was tested in multiple overtimes. LSU could not overcome Arkansas (maybe the Razorbacks took offense to Les Miles’ terrible third-grade level pronunciation of their state) in three overtimes, leaving them 10-2 with a SEC West title but no more national championship hopes. Both of LSU’s losses came in that fated third overtime, so Tiger fans will dread those long overtime games for years to come. Tennessee actually needed a win over Kentucky to win the SEC East, and they got it after four overtimes. Despite a six game winning streak, Georgia will be left out as the SEC East’s other hot team Tennessee goes to play LSU for the automatic (and only available) BCS berth. Don’t feel bad for the Bulldogs, as they will almost certainly now be guaranteed a BCS at-large berth, instead of having to play LSU for it.
The SEC was the craziest rivalry week destination, but the biggest game was Missouri beating Kansas. The Jayhawks finally have a loss, but Kansas would have certainly won the game had there been two more minutes on the clock at the end of the game (the Tigers could not stop the Jayhawks in the second half). Missouri has now won its first Big XII North title and will get a chance to avenge their only loss when they play Oklahoma for the Big XII title. West Virginia won the de facto Big East championship game by blasting Connecticut 66-21, leaving only 4-7 Pittsburgh to beat for a championship game slot. Rivalry Week always brings the chance for some upsets, and this year full of upsets did not change the trend.
Thanks to many of the good top team games being Thursday, Friday, and Saturday evening, I personally did not miss any big game with the exception of WVU-UCONN when I traveled to Athens, Ohio for Ohio vs. Miami. This rivalry is probably the worst-blooded rivalry in the MAC outside of Toledo-BGSU. Tensions were high on the field as Ohio had struggled to a 5-6 start after winning the MAC East last season, while Miami was coming into Athens 6-5 and 5-1 in MAC play, already having clinched the division title Ohio had won last season. Despite there being seemingly nothing to play for, the game was hard-fought and chippy at certain points. A Miami player tackled a punt returner a full second before the ball landed in the first quarter, but the officials did a nice job of keeping the players from escalating that incident to a brawl. The stadium was actually pretty dead because Ohio University students end their academic quarter and finals before Thanksgiving, so almost everyone had gone home and the only attendees were residents of local towns. There might not have been many people in the stands (maybe 7,000 in a 20,000 person stadium), but they got loud in the second half when it mattered.
Ohio turned a couple Miami mistakes around to make a 17-7 halftime deficit into a 28-17 lead with nine minutes left in the third quarter. Still, Miami kept fighting back to get into the game, and Ohio kept answering those scores. The final score ended up 38-29, and Ohio made their season with a win over their rival, getting to 6-6 on the season. The game actually does matter a little to Miami, as they now sit at 6-6 and must defeat Central Michigan in this week’s MAC Championship to go to a bowl (usually both participants in that game are guaranteed bowl berths, but Miami cannot go at 6-7 if they lose). The key point here is that even if you do not live close to an Iron Bowl or Backyard Brawl, rivalry games in college football are good all the way down to the lower divisions and you can see some passionate games on the cheap. My wife came along with me to Athens and I got her a front-row ticket on the 25 yard line for $15. Of course this game was a little different because all the students were home for holidays, but you can get great seats even on game day for a very reasonable price in most of these rivalry games. Thanks go to the Ohio University athletic department for providing a credential to SCS.com, and I look forward to visiting Peden Stadium again soon.
Turning to the BCS picture, all of the assumptions made last week got a whole lot easier with last week’s upsets and games. It really does come down to one game, Oklahoma vs. Missouri in San Antonio. This game will have a major effect on how the rest of the bowls shake out, so two projections are appropriate, much like last year when the Florida or Michigan debate raged for a week. Still, some assumptions are necessary like last week. I project LSU beating Tennessee, Virginia Tech avenging their loss to Boston College, and USC locking up the Pac-10 with a win over UCLA. Tennessee and Boston College matter not only for the automatic BCS berths shown below (if they win, substitute their names in for LSU and VT), but also because one of them losing opens a spot in the Top 14 for Illinois, an attractive candidate for the Rose Bowl if OSU moves into the championship game.
In the first projection, Missouri defeats Oklahoma for the Big XII title. The automatic BCS berths go to Missouri, West Virginia, Ohio State, Virginia Tech, LSU, USC, Hawaii (Top 12 non-BCS school), and Georgia (Top 4 BCS school who did not win their conference). This leaves two at-large spots open among this pool: Kansas, Arizona State, Illinois, and maybe Clemson. Florida is ineligible due to the SEC championship winner and Georgia locking up the two possible BCS berths. This leads to the following projection:
BCS Bowl Projection II(A)
BCS Championship: Missouri vs. West Virginia
Orange: Virginia Tech vs. Georgia
Fiesta: Kansas vs. Arizona State
Sugar: LSU vs. Hawaii
Rose: Ohio State vs. USC
In the second projection, Oklahoma defeats Missouri for the Big XII title. The automatic BCS berths then go to West Virginia, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, LSU, USC, Hawaii, and Georgia. The at-large pool to select two teams from then includes Missouri, Kansas, Arizona State, and Illinois. Only one of the Big XII teams could be chosen, and it would be a tough decision with Missouri beating Kansas but having a worse record than the Jayhawks. The problem is the picking order, as in this scenario the Rose likely snaps up a Big Ten team to replace OSU (Illinois) and the Orange takes Georgia away with the second selection. This leaves Missouri, Kansas, and Arizona State. The Fiesta could set up a conference game between Kansas and Oklahoma since they did not play this season, but the Fiesta may instead opt for another undefeated WAC team to play Oklahoma just like last season’s classic. The Fiesta would also consider Arizona State, the hometown team, but that would leave both Big XII teams in the cold, an unlikely choice for the bowl with that conference tie-in. This Fiesta Bowl decision gets very interesting, but I’ll say they try to recapture the magic of last season with Hawaii vs. Oklahoma.
BCS Bowl Projection II(B)
BCS Championship: West Virginia vs. Ohio State
Orange: Virginia Tech vs. Georgia
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Hawaii
Sugar: LSU vs. Missouri
Rose: USC vs. Illinois
Both projections look equally entertaining. The first one has the dream Rose Bowl match between the biggest dynasties of this decade, Ohio State and USC. The first one also has a non-traditional BCS championship, which is desirable in a season with so many upsets. The second projection offers Oklahoma another chance at an undefeated WAC champion, and it also offers Ohio State a chance to exorcise its demons against another spread offense with good athletes for a national title. LSU-Missouri could be a lot of fun as well, making up for a relatively lackluster Illinois-USC game in the Rose.
Now that we are on much more solid footing, hopefully these projections will stand up next weekend. If the games break as expected, you will not hear from me next weekend. If things change considerably (A.K.A. if West Virginia loses), a new BCS bowl projection with explanation will be posted on Sunday. With that said, let’s move on to the games of the week in Championship Week.
The first game of the week is LSU vs. Tennessee in the SEC Championship. LSU will try to recover from a devastating loss to Arkansas, and Tennessee will try to keep their five-game winning streak going. LSU QB Matt Flynn has led the Tiger offense this season, and RB Jacob Hester is one of the best in the country. Now that WR Early Doucet is healthy for the stretch run, LSU has many options for Flynn to throw to, opening up the offense. Tennessee has only lost three times, all on the road at quality opponents California, Florida, and Alabama. Volunteer RB Arian Foster has averaged over five yards per carry this season in the tough SEC, but the real story behind the Vols is definitely QB Erik Ainge. Ainge can make critical mistakes in close games, but his experience as a starting quarterback has made him more reliable. The key to the game will be whether Tennessee can stop LSU’s potent offense and keep their own offense on the field. The Tigers will likely bounce back nicely after the loss, and there’s no way LSU loses motivation with a BCS bowl on the line. LSU wins by 4.
The second game of the week is the ACC Championship, Boston College vs. Virginia Tech. The first time these two teams met, Boston College survived the curse of being #2 in the country by scoring two touchdowns and recovering an onside kick in the final three minutes of regulation to win 14-10 after being outplayed by the Hokies all game. Expect another strong defensive showing by both teams, but a few more points than the 24 scored in a downpour a month ago. Eagles QB Matt Ryan was a candidate for Heisman before BC lost the two games following the win over Virginia Tech, but his 60% completion rate and 28 touchdowns drive the team. The Hokie offense has not put up big numbers this season, but this unit scores about as much as BC. Hokie QB Sean Glennon only throws when necessary, as RB Branden Ore has carried most of the load. Virginia Tech has helped their campus recover from the springtime shootings with a very successful football season. The Hokies had Boston College beat last time and let Matt Ryan steal the victory. Not this time, as the Hokie defense steps up again and holds Boston College below 20 points again, while the offense puts up bigger numbers. Hokies win by 13.
The final game of the week is the Saturday night showdown everybody wants to see, the Big XII Championship between Missouri and Oklahoma. Missouri has survived the North division by knocking off the last major-conference undefeated team in Kansas. Missouri defeated Illinois, Kansas, and blew away Texas Tech 41-10. Still, Missouri has given up a lot of points since that dominating performance, and Oklahoma will be looking to repeat their performance from a 41-31 win in Norman earlier this season. Oklahoma lost both of their games with a banged up quarterback, but freshman Sam Bradford looked fine last week in a 4 touchdown performance against Oklahoma State. Oklahoma will not have that injury problem, but RB Allen Patrick will be asked to carry more of the load with backup RB DeMarco Murray out for the season. On the other side of the ball, Missouri QB Chase Daniel is making a late run at the Heisman ceremony with quality numbers and RB Tony Temple delivers the 1-2 punch for the Tiger offense. Each defensive secondary will be truly tested by these wide-open offenses, but I think this game will come down to who can establish a running game. Despite the loss of DeMarco Murray, look for Allen Patrick to have a statement game. A late mistake by the Tiger offense costs them dearly, as Oklahoma pulls out to another 10 point victory.
GOTW Record to Date: 22-20 (.524), slowly making our way back to .500
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 – Week 13
1. Missouri (11-1)
2. Ohio State (11-1)
3. West Virginia (10-1)
4. Georgia (10-2)
5. Oklahoma (10-2)
6. Hawaii (11-0)
7. Kansas (11-1)
8. USC (9-2)
9. LSU (10-2)
10. Virginia Tech (10-2)
Just Missed: Tennessee, Illinois, Boston College, Florida, Arizona State
Enjoy the limited final week of college football, and let’s look forward to a great holiday and bowl season! See you next week!
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
A Season With Plenty To Be Thankful For
Happy Thanksgiving everyone! This week is a time to spend with friends and family in front of a huge meal, followed by a long nap or some football. There will be plenty of college basketball, pro football, and most importantly college football this weekend. Only the Big Ten is finished with their season, so there is still plenty of football to go with that leftover turkey and cranberry sauce. This is also the final full week of football, so we look back on 2007 and find many things to be thankful for.
First of all we remember the BCS bowl season from very early 2007. Michigan was highly disappointed to be left out of the BCS Championship picture and dropped another Rose Bowl to USC on January 1. Still, the tone for the upcoming 2007 and the most memorable game in all of sports in 2007 was to come later that night, when Boise State stunned Oklahoma with the Statue of Liberty play and many others in the Fiesta Bowl. Wake Forest and Louisville shared in a rare Orange Bowl appearance, and then LSU handed Notre Dame a second straight BCS beatdown. Then Florida lived the dream and silenced all their critics with the 41-14 upset of Ohio State in the BCS Championship. In the course of 8 days, Tempe, AZ saw two huge upsets that would change the 2007 season. The WAC and non-BCS teams had credibility, while Ohio State would struggle to gain any credibility in 2007. While not as exciting overall as the 2006 set of BCS bowls, the 2007 bowls did set the tone for the following season.
The first week of the season introduced us quickly to the main maxim of the 2007 football season, that being nobody is safe from upset, and expect the unexpected. #5 Michigan dropped a shocker to Division I-AA Appalachian State at home, becoming the first of what would be a record-setting long line of top five teams losing to unranked teams. The list of top teams falling included the aforementioned Michigan, Oklahoma, Florida, Wisconsin, USC, California, South Florida, Boston College, Ohio State, and Oregon. With the exception of the Bulls and the Eagles, each of these teams is a top college football program that does not normally lose games to unranked teams. This is why the college football season has been so crazy. The upsets have not been limited to fringe Top 10 teams, and that is something to be thankful for this season.
Another great aspect of this season has been the rise of teams who normally would have no BCS consideration. Most notably, the Big XII North division has been the laughingstock of the country these past few seasons as Oklahoma, Texas, et al. kept beating up on the colder half of their conference. This season the biggest late season game as far as the national championship goes is Missouri vs. Kansas, two North division teams! The winner of that contest still has to deal with Oklahoma or Texas in the conference championship game, but there’s no questioning how strong the North division has been this season. The WAC continued to break down doors of the BCS for the little guys with Boise State and Hawaii fighting it out, and other teams who experienced great glory not normally reserved for them include South Florida, Kentucky, and Boston College. With two weeks left in the season, we could end up with a “normal” championship game like LSU v. Ohio State, but it is just as likely we end up with two cinderellas such as Kansas v. West Virginia.
Everybody in the country was thrilled about the Big East trilogy (Louisville, West Virginia, Rutgers) and the Big Ten’s top two (Ohio State, Michigan) all not playing each other until November last season, heightening the drama in those conference races and the national title chase. This season the back-loading of great games has been widespread, with de facto conference championship games in the last 2 weeks of play in the Big Ten, Big East, WAC, and Pac-10. Combined with the ACC, SEC, and Big XII conference championship games, every single conference has come down to a game between the top two contenders. This is a great thing, as we get to see late in the season who deserves a BCS berth the most.
Speaking of de facto championship games, the first of those happened last weekend because the Big Ten loves tradition, and tradition dictates that the season ends before Thanksgiving. Ohio State dominated Michigan in every aspect of the game, including setting up sophomore RB Chris “Beanie” Wells for a Heisman run next season (222 yards on 39 carries, 2 TD, record yards in this rivalry against UM). The star QB Chad Henne, RB Mike Hart, and coach Lloyd Carr have all now been run out of town with 0-4 and 1-6 records against Ohio State in the Jim Tressel era. Despite all this going on in the background, there were a couple other stories from the Big Ten worth following or noting.
First, with the notable exception of 1-11 Minnesota, every other team in conference was bowl eligible at 6-5 or better and needed wins to lock up bowl berths. With Iowa’s out-of-conference loss to a MAC team, the situation becomes very interesting. The pecking order for bowls appears to be: Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State, Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue, Iowa, Northwestern. The Big Ten only has 7 tie-ins including the BCS, so three of those teams may be left without a partner for bowl season. Northwestern is certainly out at 6-6, and Iowa at 6-6 should be also (but if a spot opens up in any bowl anywhere for a 6-6 team, Iowa is one of the top 5 draws for bowl games as Hawkeye fans love to get out of frigid Iowa City and Cedar Rapids this time of year). The 7-5 trio includes Indiana, Michigan State, and Purdue. The bowls might normally leave Indiana in the cold, but the Terry Hoeppner story of “Play 13” and the fact that IU beat both the other 7-5 teams should land them in a bowl for sure. Michigan State is a perfect fit for the final bowl slot in Detroit (Motor City Bowl), and they beat Purdue also. A shocking result almost certainly ensues, as Purdue at 7-5 gets left out and Iowa at 6-6 also gets left out. Clearly both these teams hope Illinois gets into the BCS at-large mix, or some other conferences open up a slot or two for these usual bowl teams.
The other interesting story from the Big Ten is the resurgence of Illinois. All of a sudden with conference limitations on BCS bowls, Illinois could slip into a BCS at-large slot. This is a big deal for a program that averaged about one win a year the past four seasons. What is interesting is that looking at Illinois’s three losses, they came in the season-opener to Missouri (looks a lot better than it did at the time), and then a two game streak in the middle of Big Ten play to Iowa and Michigan. With the win over Ohio State, Illinois pulled within one game of the conference lead and would have won the crown if the upset at Iowa had not happened. The Buckeyes should be sending gift baskets to Iowa City for that victory, since that seemingly unimportant Iowa 10-6 win ended up drastically changing the final standings in the conference. The Big Ten is in the clubhouse, though, so let’s move onto upcoming topics.
Normally at this time of year, I write an article explaining why an 8-team playoff would be absolutely amazing in Division I-A, showing what that kind of playoff would be this year. With so many conferences coming down to de facto or real conference championship games in the final two weeks of the season, too much is still unclear to make that argument look compelling. At this time of Thanksgiving, we should be thankful for the things we do have. We have instant replay, which has made the game of college football far more fair and just when entire seasons ride on the outcome of one game. We also have a system for pairing teams in true championship games that never would have happened under the pre-1998 bowl system (Miami v Ohio State, Texas v USC, Florida v Ohio State). Sure, the BCS is a flawed system that cannot make everybody happy all the time, but this sure is a lot better than one decade ago.
Even though I will not continue the playoff argument tradition in this column for 2007, I will continue to give BCS bowl projections with explanations of how the process works and how I came to the conclusions I did. First, a quick primer on 2008 BCS bowls. The BCS Championship in New Orleans gets the top 2 ranked BCS teams in the final BCS standings released in 2 weeks. Then automatic qualifiers are the champions of each BCS conference, and Hawaii/Boise State if they make it into the Top 12, or if they make it into Top 16 and get ranked above a BCS conference champion. Every other team in the Top 14 with at least nine wins can be chosen as an at-large to fill the BCS line-up (extended to the Top 18 if not enough teams to fill the slots). Finally, the rule most in controversy in the BCS is that no conference may send more than 2 teams to BCS bowls. This will likely come into play this year, just as it did when Wisconsin got left out last year.
After the BCS Championship gets the top 2 teams, the other four bowls get their traditional conference champions if they are still available (Rose Bowl gets Pac-10 and Big Ten, Sugar Bowl gets SEC, Orange Bowl gets ACC, Fiesta Bowl gets Big XII). The empty slots still left are filled first by any bowl that lost it’s traditional conference champion to the Championship game, and then in backwards chronological order of when the bowls are scheduled (this year, the picking order is Orange, Fiesta, Sugar). At this point all the bowls have their teams and we finally get to kick back and relax once 2008 begins with some great college football. So let’s do a projection with all those complicated rules in mind.
We have to make some assumptions to make these projections from the final two weeks, and here is how we will project it (in this season, some upset is bound to change this). In the ACC, the winner of Virginia/VA Tech plays Boston College for the title, and I think BC will come out as champion. They get slotted into the Orange Bowl as ACC Champion. In the Big XII, the winner or Kansas/Missouri will take on either Oklahoma or Texas. This could get very complicated, but for the sake of simplicity we’ll project Kansas to beat Missouri and Oklahoma to beat Kansas, so OU goes to the Fiesta. In the Big East, WVU knocks off Connecticut and Pittsburgh, ending up #2 in the BCS and going to the championship game. The Big Ten champion is Ohio State, so they go to the Rose. Arizona State and USC play this week for the Pac-10 title (although Oregon is still in it technically, I’m assuming they will lose one of their final two due to Dixon’s injury), and I’m projecting USC as the winner there, going to the Rose Bowl. The SEC comes down to LSU vs. Georgia or Tennessee, and I project LSU will run the table and end #1 in the BCS, going to the title game. The only other conference of note is the WAC, and I project Hawaii beating Boise State for the conference crown, which should put them in the Top 12 of the BCS standings as an automatic qualifier.
With all those assumptions out there, the automatic qualifiers are LSU, West Virginia, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Boston College, USC, and Hawaii. After all teams are slotted in their respective bowls, Hawaii and three at-large teams need to be selected to fill the bowls. The BCS #3-4 teams can become at-large teams for sure if they are not a conference champion, and I think Georgia will miss out on the SEC championship but still slip in at #4. The remainder of teams to pick from then are 12-1 Kansas, 10-2 Missouri, 10-2 Arizona State, 10-2 Texas, 10-3 Virginia Tech, and 9-3 Illinois. One of the Big XII teams will presumably be taken, and a 10-2 Texas would likely be that team (sorry Kansas). Given the strength of the Pac-10, Arizona State is likely the next selection, but Illinois would get consideration and Virginia Tech may also get consideration. Slotting those selections in the bowls in order results in the projection shown below. As you can see, there is some work in accurately projecting BCS bowls!
2008 BCS Bowl Projection I
BCS Championship: LSU vs. West Virginia
Orange: Boston College vs. Texas
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Arizona State
Sugar: Georgia vs. Hawaii
Rose: Ohio State vs. USC
Whew. That was quite a job this season, but thankfully the analysis gets a lot simpler the next two weeks. I did project the bowls correctly after games were over last season, so hopefully I will be able to offer the same service this season (for those of you who just have to know who’s going where before all your buddies). Moving onto this week’s best games, I had to leave out the de facto Big East championship, UConn at West Virginia. West Virginia still needs a little help, but the Mountaineers may be 2 wins away from the BCS Championship Game. No matter those implications, the game this weekend will determine another automatic qualifier for the BCS and should not be ignored. Still, it just missed on being one of the games I preview for Week 13.
The first game of the week is the Thanksgiving Day battle for the Pac-10, USC at Arizona State. USC needs a win here and an Oregon loss to win the Rose Bowl, but Pete Carroll’s team would be happy with that after losing two games this season. Arizona State leads the conference by a game right now in a resurgent season. Both offenses will dictate the flow of this game, and the USC defense is still banged up and the Arizona State defense is not all that great. Both teams are coming off a bye week as well, which favors the injured Trojans. Trojan QB John David Booty will be key, as his health and poise will be necessary to win in a hostile environment. Sun Devil QB Rudy Carpenter will test the USC backfield, but expect the Trojan defense to make a critical fourth quarter stop to seal the victory. USC wins by 10.
The second game of the week is Boise State at Hawaii. If Arizona State and USC are going to light up the scoreboard, watch out in this one. Each team puts up about 500 yards of offense per game, and 45-50 points is the norm. These top 10 offensive units will be going against decent defenses, but not great defenses. One advantage Boise State has is experience in big games, and the one-dimensional nature of Hawaii’s strong offense (2nd best passing attack, 4th worst rushing attack in Division I-A). Hopefully the week off for QB Colt Brennan has been enough to get him healthy, as Hawaii does not have the proper guns to keep up without him. Bronco RB Ian Johnson will be the key element in this game, as draining Hawaii’s defense and crowd in long drives will be the key to victory. The first team to 50 may not win this game, and scoring records will be set if it goes to overtime. While all X-factors seem to bend in Boise State’s favor, the trip out to Hawaii is always a huge advantage for the Warriors. If Brennan is healthy then the Warriors should narrowly win (and that was the assumption made above). Still, I just see something happening to Brennan to keep him out and so I’m picking Boise State by 17.
The top game of the week is Missouri vs. Kansas at Kansas City. For those who struggle with geography, Kansas City is in Missouri on the border, so neither team has an advantage here. This is yet another game with two top-10 offenses (this is going to be one fun week to watch football). Missouri will be led by QB Chase Daniel, but the key to their offense will be establishing a running game with RB Tony Temple. When Kansas is on the field, QB Todd Reesing is the star, with 30 TD against only 4 INT. The Kansas rushing duo of FB Brandon McAnderson and RB Jake Sharp should keep the pressure off Reesing all day. Missouri has been good in the shootout kind of game, and Kansas has not really been tested (one could argue the best team they have faced is Oklahoma State, and that’s not saying much). Nevertheless, Missouri was trampled by another good offense in Oklahoma and this game will be no different. Kansas might not have a defense capable of holding Missouri under 30, but when you score 45 a game that’s not a huge deal. Kansas by 9.
GOTW Record to Date: 21-18 (.535)
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 – Week 12
1. Kansas (11-0)
2. LSU (10-1)
3. Missouri (10-1)
4. Ohio State (11-1)
5. West Virginia (9-1)
6. Arizona State (9-1)
7. Georgia (9-2)
8. Boise State (10-1)
9. Oklahoma (9-2)
10. Hawaii (10-0)
Just Missed: USC, Texas, Oregon, Virginia Tech, Tennessee
Again, have a Happy Thanksgiving everybody! See you next week.
First of all we remember the BCS bowl season from very early 2007. Michigan was highly disappointed to be left out of the BCS Championship picture and dropped another Rose Bowl to USC on January 1. Still, the tone for the upcoming 2007 and the most memorable game in all of sports in 2007 was to come later that night, when Boise State stunned Oklahoma with the Statue of Liberty play and many others in the Fiesta Bowl. Wake Forest and Louisville shared in a rare Orange Bowl appearance, and then LSU handed Notre Dame a second straight BCS beatdown. Then Florida lived the dream and silenced all their critics with the 41-14 upset of Ohio State in the BCS Championship. In the course of 8 days, Tempe, AZ saw two huge upsets that would change the 2007 season. The WAC and non-BCS teams had credibility, while Ohio State would struggle to gain any credibility in 2007. While not as exciting overall as the 2006 set of BCS bowls, the 2007 bowls did set the tone for the following season.
The first week of the season introduced us quickly to the main maxim of the 2007 football season, that being nobody is safe from upset, and expect the unexpected. #5 Michigan dropped a shocker to Division I-AA Appalachian State at home, becoming the first of what would be a record-setting long line of top five teams losing to unranked teams. The list of top teams falling included the aforementioned Michigan, Oklahoma, Florida, Wisconsin, USC, California, South Florida, Boston College, Ohio State, and Oregon. With the exception of the Bulls and the Eagles, each of these teams is a top college football program that does not normally lose games to unranked teams. This is why the college football season has been so crazy. The upsets have not been limited to fringe Top 10 teams, and that is something to be thankful for this season.
Another great aspect of this season has been the rise of teams who normally would have no BCS consideration. Most notably, the Big XII North division has been the laughingstock of the country these past few seasons as Oklahoma, Texas, et al. kept beating up on the colder half of their conference. This season the biggest late season game as far as the national championship goes is Missouri vs. Kansas, two North division teams! The winner of that contest still has to deal with Oklahoma or Texas in the conference championship game, but there’s no questioning how strong the North division has been this season. The WAC continued to break down doors of the BCS for the little guys with Boise State and Hawaii fighting it out, and other teams who experienced great glory not normally reserved for them include South Florida, Kentucky, and Boston College. With two weeks left in the season, we could end up with a “normal” championship game like LSU v. Ohio State, but it is just as likely we end up with two cinderellas such as Kansas v. West Virginia.
Everybody in the country was thrilled about the Big East trilogy (Louisville, West Virginia, Rutgers) and the Big Ten’s top two (Ohio State, Michigan) all not playing each other until November last season, heightening the drama in those conference races and the national title chase. This season the back-loading of great games has been widespread, with de facto conference championship games in the last 2 weeks of play in the Big Ten, Big East, WAC, and Pac-10. Combined with the ACC, SEC, and Big XII conference championship games, every single conference has come down to a game between the top two contenders. This is a great thing, as we get to see late in the season who deserves a BCS berth the most.
Speaking of de facto championship games, the first of those happened last weekend because the Big Ten loves tradition, and tradition dictates that the season ends before Thanksgiving. Ohio State dominated Michigan in every aspect of the game, including setting up sophomore RB Chris “Beanie” Wells for a Heisman run next season (222 yards on 39 carries, 2 TD, record yards in this rivalry against UM). The star QB Chad Henne, RB Mike Hart, and coach Lloyd Carr have all now been run out of town with 0-4 and 1-6 records against Ohio State in the Jim Tressel era. Despite all this going on in the background, there were a couple other stories from the Big Ten worth following or noting.
First, with the notable exception of 1-11 Minnesota, every other team in conference was bowl eligible at 6-5 or better and needed wins to lock up bowl berths. With Iowa’s out-of-conference loss to a MAC team, the situation becomes very interesting. The pecking order for bowls appears to be: Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State, Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue, Iowa, Northwestern. The Big Ten only has 7 tie-ins including the BCS, so three of those teams may be left without a partner for bowl season. Northwestern is certainly out at 6-6, and Iowa at 6-6 should be also (but if a spot opens up in any bowl anywhere for a 6-6 team, Iowa is one of the top 5 draws for bowl games as Hawkeye fans love to get out of frigid Iowa City and Cedar Rapids this time of year). The 7-5 trio includes Indiana, Michigan State, and Purdue. The bowls might normally leave Indiana in the cold, but the Terry Hoeppner story of “Play 13” and the fact that IU beat both the other 7-5 teams should land them in a bowl for sure. Michigan State is a perfect fit for the final bowl slot in Detroit (Motor City Bowl), and they beat Purdue also. A shocking result almost certainly ensues, as Purdue at 7-5 gets left out and Iowa at 6-6 also gets left out. Clearly both these teams hope Illinois gets into the BCS at-large mix, or some other conferences open up a slot or two for these usual bowl teams.
The other interesting story from the Big Ten is the resurgence of Illinois. All of a sudden with conference limitations on BCS bowls, Illinois could slip into a BCS at-large slot. This is a big deal for a program that averaged about one win a year the past four seasons. What is interesting is that looking at Illinois’s three losses, they came in the season-opener to Missouri (looks a lot better than it did at the time), and then a two game streak in the middle of Big Ten play to Iowa and Michigan. With the win over Ohio State, Illinois pulled within one game of the conference lead and would have won the crown if the upset at Iowa had not happened. The Buckeyes should be sending gift baskets to Iowa City for that victory, since that seemingly unimportant Iowa 10-6 win ended up drastically changing the final standings in the conference. The Big Ten is in the clubhouse, though, so let’s move onto upcoming topics.
Normally at this time of year, I write an article explaining why an 8-team playoff would be absolutely amazing in Division I-A, showing what that kind of playoff would be this year. With so many conferences coming down to de facto or real conference championship games in the final two weeks of the season, too much is still unclear to make that argument look compelling. At this time of Thanksgiving, we should be thankful for the things we do have. We have instant replay, which has made the game of college football far more fair and just when entire seasons ride on the outcome of one game. We also have a system for pairing teams in true championship games that never would have happened under the pre-1998 bowl system (Miami v Ohio State, Texas v USC, Florida v Ohio State). Sure, the BCS is a flawed system that cannot make everybody happy all the time, but this sure is a lot better than one decade ago.
Even though I will not continue the playoff argument tradition in this column for 2007, I will continue to give BCS bowl projections with explanations of how the process works and how I came to the conclusions I did. First, a quick primer on 2008 BCS bowls. The BCS Championship in New Orleans gets the top 2 ranked BCS teams in the final BCS standings released in 2 weeks. Then automatic qualifiers are the champions of each BCS conference, and Hawaii/Boise State if they make it into the Top 12, or if they make it into Top 16 and get ranked above a BCS conference champion. Every other team in the Top 14 with at least nine wins can be chosen as an at-large to fill the BCS line-up (extended to the Top 18 if not enough teams to fill the slots). Finally, the rule most in controversy in the BCS is that no conference may send more than 2 teams to BCS bowls. This will likely come into play this year, just as it did when Wisconsin got left out last year.
After the BCS Championship gets the top 2 teams, the other four bowls get their traditional conference champions if they are still available (Rose Bowl gets Pac-10 and Big Ten, Sugar Bowl gets SEC, Orange Bowl gets ACC, Fiesta Bowl gets Big XII). The empty slots still left are filled first by any bowl that lost it’s traditional conference champion to the Championship game, and then in backwards chronological order of when the bowls are scheduled (this year, the picking order is Orange, Fiesta, Sugar). At this point all the bowls have their teams and we finally get to kick back and relax once 2008 begins with some great college football. So let’s do a projection with all those complicated rules in mind.
We have to make some assumptions to make these projections from the final two weeks, and here is how we will project it (in this season, some upset is bound to change this). In the ACC, the winner of Virginia/VA Tech plays Boston College for the title, and I think BC will come out as champion. They get slotted into the Orange Bowl as ACC Champion. In the Big XII, the winner or Kansas/Missouri will take on either Oklahoma or Texas. This could get very complicated, but for the sake of simplicity we’ll project Kansas to beat Missouri and Oklahoma to beat Kansas, so OU goes to the Fiesta. In the Big East, WVU knocks off Connecticut and Pittsburgh, ending up #2 in the BCS and going to the championship game. The Big Ten champion is Ohio State, so they go to the Rose. Arizona State and USC play this week for the Pac-10 title (although Oregon is still in it technically, I’m assuming they will lose one of their final two due to Dixon’s injury), and I’m projecting USC as the winner there, going to the Rose Bowl. The SEC comes down to LSU vs. Georgia or Tennessee, and I project LSU will run the table and end #1 in the BCS, going to the title game. The only other conference of note is the WAC, and I project Hawaii beating Boise State for the conference crown, which should put them in the Top 12 of the BCS standings as an automatic qualifier.
With all those assumptions out there, the automatic qualifiers are LSU, West Virginia, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Boston College, USC, and Hawaii. After all teams are slotted in their respective bowls, Hawaii and three at-large teams need to be selected to fill the bowls. The BCS #3-4 teams can become at-large teams for sure if they are not a conference champion, and I think Georgia will miss out on the SEC championship but still slip in at #4. The remainder of teams to pick from then are 12-1 Kansas, 10-2 Missouri, 10-2 Arizona State, 10-2 Texas, 10-3 Virginia Tech, and 9-3 Illinois. One of the Big XII teams will presumably be taken, and a 10-2 Texas would likely be that team (sorry Kansas). Given the strength of the Pac-10, Arizona State is likely the next selection, but Illinois would get consideration and Virginia Tech may also get consideration. Slotting those selections in the bowls in order results in the projection shown below. As you can see, there is some work in accurately projecting BCS bowls!
2008 BCS Bowl Projection I
BCS Championship: LSU vs. West Virginia
Orange: Boston College vs. Texas
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Arizona State
Sugar: Georgia vs. Hawaii
Rose: Ohio State vs. USC
Whew. That was quite a job this season, but thankfully the analysis gets a lot simpler the next two weeks. I did project the bowls correctly after games were over last season, so hopefully I will be able to offer the same service this season (for those of you who just have to know who’s going where before all your buddies). Moving onto this week’s best games, I had to leave out the de facto Big East championship, UConn at West Virginia. West Virginia still needs a little help, but the Mountaineers may be 2 wins away from the BCS Championship Game. No matter those implications, the game this weekend will determine another automatic qualifier for the BCS and should not be ignored. Still, it just missed on being one of the games I preview for Week 13.
The first game of the week is the Thanksgiving Day battle for the Pac-10, USC at Arizona State. USC needs a win here and an Oregon loss to win the Rose Bowl, but Pete Carroll’s team would be happy with that after losing two games this season. Arizona State leads the conference by a game right now in a resurgent season. Both offenses will dictate the flow of this game, and the USC defense is still banged up and the Arizona State defense is not all that great. Both teams are coming off a bye week as well, which favors the injured Trojans. Trojan QB John David Booty will be key, as his health and poise will be necessary to win in a hostile environment. Sun Devil QB Rudy Carpenter will test the USC backfield, but expect the Trojan defense to make a critical fourth quarter stop to seal the victory. USC wins by 10.
The second game of the week is Boise State at Hawaii. If Arizona State and USC are going to light up the scoreboard, watch out in this one. Each team puts up about 500 yards of offense per game, and 45-50 points is the norm. These top 10 offensive units will be going against decent defenses, but not great defenses. One advantage Boise State has is experience in big games, and the one-dimensional nature of Hawaii’s strong offense (2nd best passing attack, 4th worst rushing attack in Division I-A). Hopefully the week off for QB Colt Brennan has been enough to get him healthy, as Hawaii does not have the proper guns to keep up without him. Bronco RB Ian Johnson will be the key element in this game, as draining Hawaii’s defense and crowd in long drives will be the key to victory. The first team to 50 may not win this game, and scoring records will be set if it goes to overtime. While all X-factors seem to bend in Boise State’s favor, the trip out to Hawaii is always a huge advantage for the Warriors. If Brennan is healthy then the Warriors should narrowly win (and that was the assumption made above). Still, I just see something happening to Brennan to keep him out and so I’m picking Boise State by 17.
The top game of the week is Missouri vs. Kansas at Kansas City. For those who struggle with geography, Kansas City is in Missouri on the border, so neither team has an advantage here. This is yet another game with two top-10 offenses (this is going to be one fun week to watch football). Missouri will be led by QB Chase Daniel, but the key to their offense will be establishing a running game with RB Tony Temple. When Kansas is on the field, QB Todd Reesing is the star, with 30 TD against only 4 INT. The Kansas rushing duo of FB Brandon McAnderson and RB Jake Sharp should keep the pressure off Reesing all day. Missouri has been good in the shootout kind of game, and Kansas has not really been tested (one could argue the best team they have faced is Oklahoma State, and that’s not saying much). Nevertheless, Missouri was trampled by another good offense in Oklahoma and this game will be no different. Kansas might not have a defense capable of holding Missouri under 30, but when you score 45 a game that’s not a huge deal. Kansas by 9.
GOTW Record to Date: 21-18 (.535)
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 – Week 12
1. Kansas (11-0)
2. LSU (10-1)
3. Missouri (10-1)
4. Ohio State (11-1)
5. West Virginia (9-1)
6. Arizona State (9-1)
7. Georgia (9-2)
8. Boise State (10-1)
9. Oklahoma (9-2)
10. Hawaii (10-0)
Just Missed: USC, Texas, Oregon, Virginia Tech, Tennessee
Again, have a Happy Thanksgiving everybody! See you next week.
Friday, November 16, 2007
Dixon A Lock? Why Not Tim Tebow for Heisman?
With Oregon moving up into a top 2 BCS slot this weekend thanks to Illinois, the wide-open Heisman race of 2007 apparently now has a front-runner. Ducks QB Dennis Dixon has indeed been an impressive threat in the mold of Vince Young and Troy Smith, but the country gives him too much credit for leading a top BCS team. Certainly that is an important part of the mix and Louisville QB Brian Brohm loses consideration based on a 5-5 record, but the real Heisman front-runner should be Tim Tebow. If the Heisman is granted to college football’s best player, part of that mix must be who is the most valuable player to their team. There’s no doubt in this category that Tim Tebow is the one.
[Editor's Note: This article was written prior to Oregon's loss to Arizona Thursday night.]
Tebow’s statistics prove how important he is to the Florida Gator team, currently 7-3 and 5-3 in the SEC. Tebow is completing 67.8% of his passes this season as a sophomore, leading to 2532 passing yards and 23 touchdowns against just 5 interceptions. His QB rating has been above 140 every single game this season, with the exception of a moderate outing against national title leader LSU (12/26 for 158 yards passing, 2 TD, 1 INT, and a 115 QB rating). Tebow also leads the Gators in rushing this season, running the ball 170 times for 718 yards and an astounding 19 touchdowns. Those 19 rushing touchdowns broke the SEC records for rushing by a quarterback and the Florida rushing record for touchdowns in a season, held by a little someone called Emmitt Smith. All of this has happened while Tebow nurses a sore shoulder as well. With all the talent Florida lost off their national title team last season, Tim Tebow is the only thing keeping that program afloat in a rough SEC East.
So what stands against what seems to be such a clear-cut winner? First, there are some problems with him. Florida has three losses, and this leaves a very narrow margin of error since the Heisman goes to a skill player on a top team. Still, the three losses Florida has are all respectable (LSU, Georgia, Auburn) and Tebow played well in all those losses. Another point against Tebow is his status as a sophomore and first-year starter. Generally Heisman winners have to be on the radar from their performance in previous years and the award is limited to upperclassmen almost entirely. There’s nothing Tebow can do about this problem, but why should he have to wait one year to win the accolades he deserves now? Only time will tell if Heisman voters wise up to this reality. If Tebow gets some real support from Urban Meyer’s new recruits the next two years and does not put up the best numbers in the country again, how is it fair to deny him this award based solely on when he had his monster year? There are other reasons he may not win the award, and those come in other contenders.
First and foremost, we must deal with Dennis Dixon of Oregon. Dixon does have a 67.9% completion rate with 2074 yards and 20 touchdowns against 3 interceptions. Unlike Tebow, Dixon has help at the running back and is only second on the team in rushing. Dixon has carried the ball 103 times for 549 yards and 8 touchdowns. Dixon has very typical numbers for an efficient running quarterback, and the numbers are shockingly close to last year’s winner Troy Smith. Still, having RB Jonathan Stewart and the WR duo of Jaison Williams and Ed Dickson makes any quarterback look tons better (think of how bad Troy Smith looked when you took away Ted Ginn last season, leaving him with only Antonio Pittman and Anthony Gonzalez for support). Dixon is the media “front-runner” because of the good BCS position and the likeness to last year’s winner. Tebow has much better numbers overall and carries the best three-loss team in the country in the SEC, which is far more important than Dixon is to the Ducks. This may be a close call, but it is certainly not a blowout for Dixon.
Arkansas RB Darren McFadden will certainly make the trip to New York for the Heisman ceremony this season, mostly on the efforts of last season. McFadden has carried the ball 244 times for 1431 yards and 12 touchdowns, but what has killed his Heisman hopes is the emergence of backup RB Felix Jones (1032 yards and 11 TD). Also taking McFadden out of the mix is the four loss season Arkansas is suffering through, which is bound to get worse with LSU coming up to close the season. McFadden has not even accounted for a third of the Arkansas scoring this season, so Tebow is more important to his team. Given that Florida has a better record in the same conference and the lack of monster numbers, McFadden falls short.
If there’s one player in the country who can compete for the title of most important player to his team, it would be Hawaii QB Colt Brennan. Brennan has been putting up passing numbers worthy of my Xbox quarterbacks who throw every down, and he accounts for over 80% of Hawaii’s offense and scoring (68.9% completion rate, 3216 yards, 28 touchdowns against 12 interceptions). Hawaii is undefeated as well, and Brennan is a senior. Tebow has two things going for him that Brennan does not: a much higher efficiency as a quarterback and conference exposure/respect. Tebow has accounted for more yards than Brennan when adding rushing and throwing totals, and Tebow also is responsible for way more touchdowns and fewer than half the interceptions. Tebow also gets to carry the Gators on national television in the SEC every week, while Brennan beats up on WAC opponents very late at night every weekend. There’s no disputing Brennan is a special quarterback, but this is not even his best season. As a junior Brennan completed 72.6% of his passes for 5549 yards and 58 touchdowns against 12 interceptions. To match those numbers, Brennan would need 30 touchdowns, 2000 yards, and zero interceptions in his final three games. That’s not going to happen, so Tebow gets the edge here too.
With the Louisville Cardinals jumping back to tie the game at 31 last Thursday in Morgantown, West Virginia QB Patrick White forced his team down the field and finished the drive with a 51-yard touchdown run. This was a signature Heisman moment for a guy who has flown under the radar all season due to his teammate Steve Slaton. While Slaton was also considered seriously for the Heisman, Slaton’s injuries have taken him out of the mix (much like Michigan RB Mike Hart). White has run for almost as many yards as Slaton while saving the Mountaineers’ Big East hopes and national title aspirations. White is also an efficient passer when he needs to be, but his statistics pale horribly in comparison to Tebow’s. Again, White just does not have the perfect package to defeat Tebow in this race.
For all those reasons, Tim Tebow should clearly win the Heisman, especially if Florida wins out. He probably will not thanks to Dennis Dixon, but it seems clear that selecting anyone else would be a mistake when considering all the variables that supposedly go into the Heisman.
While on the subject of WVU, I would like to personally thank all the personnel at WVU including Mike M. who made the trip to Morgantown a great time. The game was great and working with fellow writers in the pressbox while the game was going on is an experience I will not soon tire of. Everything looks different from the press perspective, including the post-game interviews. The Morgantown fans also showed a lot of class for the game being a night game…best of all, parking is free at their basketball arena for football games. After getting robbed at Penn State to park farther away, the scene in Morgantown was refreshing. Looking forward to the experience at Ohio University next weekend!
The first game of the week is Boston College at Clemson, a battle for the ACC Atlantic Division crown. Boston College has lost two in a row to Florida State and Maryland after barely escaping Virginia Tech, while Clemson has recovered from a midseason two-game losing streak with four straight wins. Both offenses can crank out the points, but Clemson has a much more balanced attack and the better defense. Eagles QB Matt Ryan will try to salvage his slim Heisman hopes by improving on his 24 touchdowns while not adding to his 13 interceptions. Tiger QB Cullen Harper has been more efficient than Ryan, and sports better numbers (26 TD-4 INT ratio). RB James Davis and RB C.J. Spiller will challenge the Eagle defense in the toughest road environment in the conference (arguably). Clemson also has a settle to score after losing the past two year’s division crowns with overtime losses to BC. Clemson runs away with it this time, winning by 17.
The second game of the week is a battle to likely determine the Big East champion, West Virginia at Cincinnati. The Bearcats have two league losses and trail WVU and UConn by a game, but will likely win the conference with a victory here (Cincinnati only has to beat Syracuse and get WVU to sweep Pittsburgh and UConn to win the conference in a tiebreaker over UConn and WVU). West Virginia remains in control of their own destiny, but wins over their final three opponents are all necessary to reach the BCS. West Virginia’s defense is ranked fourth nationally, but they were exposed against a good offense last Thursday against Louisville. Cincinnati does not boast as good of an offense, but at home the Bearcats have been nearly impossible to stop. QB Ben Mauk will truly test the WVU secondary again, while the Bearcat defense will need to focus on what Patrick White is doing at all times. As long as Cincinnati adjusts defensively, there’s no reason to think WVU will run away with this game. On the contrary, I think the pressure on the road gets to WVU and the Bearcats pull an upset by 7.
The top game of the week is a usual suspect, Ohio State at Michigan. The de facto Big Ten Championship will determine an outright champion for the second straight season. Despite the stakes not being as high as last year (#1 vs. #2), outright Big Ten titles and Rose Bowl berths are nothing to sneeze at. Michigan rested injured QB Chad Henne and RB Mike Hart last week in a loss to Wisconsin, while the Buckeyes were shocked at home by a feisty Illinois team that always plays well against the Bucks. If it were not Michigan week, I would normally say OSU would have trouble getting over the devastating loss to Illinois. Still, this is a “rebuilding year” in Columbus and a Rose Bowl is still very important now that a loss likely drops the Buckeyes out of the BCS picture. QB Todd Boeckman has been very efficient with new superstar targets Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline to throw to, and RB Chris Wells has filled in nicely where Antonio Pittman left off last season. On the other side of the ball, the question will be how healthy Henne and Hart really are. Thankfully Michigan has capable experienced backups in QB Ryan Mallett and RB Brandon Minor, and great WR targets Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington. If Henne and Hart were healthy, this would be the kind of game Michigan would win. Unfortunately, the Sweater Vest has a hex on Michigan recently and his troops are much better defensively, as well as more healthy offensively. These rivalry games are always crazy and too close to call, but this year the Buckeyes should pull away from a fading Wolverine squad by 10.
GOTW Record to Date: 20-16 (.556)
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 – Week 11
1. Kansas (10-0)
2. Oregon (9-1)
3. Oklahoma (9-1)
4. LSU (9-1)
5. Missouri (9-1)
6. West Virginia (9-1)
7. Ohio State (10-1)
8. Hawaii (9-0)
9. Arizona State (9-1)
10. Georgia (8-2)
Just Missed: Boise State, Texas, USC, Virginia Tech, Clemson
This will be the first time in 7 years I will not be seeing Michigan play Ohio State in person and the first time in many weeks I will not be seeing any college football live, so go out there and support your teams in my absence. This is crunch time and a fun time to debate BCS implications with 50,000 of your closest friends. Have a great week!
[Editor's Note: This article was written prior to Oregon's loss to Arizona Thursday night.]
Tebow’s statistics prove how important he is to the Florida Gator team, currently 7-3 and 5-3 in the SEC. Tebow is completing 67.8% of his passes this season as a sophomore, leading to 2532 passing yards and 23 touchdowns against just 5 interceptions. His QB rating has been above 140 every single game this season, with the exception of a moderate outing against national title leader LSU (12/26 for 158 yards passing, 2 TD, 1 INT, and a 115 QB rating). Tebow also leads the Gators in rushing this season, running the ball 170 times for 718 yards and an astounding 19 touchdowns. Those 19 rushing touchdowns broke the SEC records for rushing by a quarterback and the Florida rushing record for touchdowns in a season, held by a little someone called Emmitt Smith. All of this has happened while Tebow nurses a sore shoulder as well. With all the talent Florida lost off their national title team last season, Tim Tebow is the only thing keeping that program afloat in a rough SEC East.
So what stands against what seems to be such a clear-cut winner? First, there are some problems with him. Florida has three losses, and this leaves a very narrow margin of error since the Heisman goes to a skill player on a top team. Still, the three losses Florida has are all respectable (LSU, Georgia, Auburn) and Tebow played well in all those losses. Another point against Tebow is his status as a sophomore and first-year starter. Generally Heisman winners have to be on the radar from their performance in previous years and the award is limited to upperclassmen almost entirely. There’s nothing Tebow can do about this problem, but why should he have to wait one year to win the accolades he deserves now? Only time will tell if Heisman voters wise up to this reality. If Tebow gets some real support from Urban Meyer’s new recruits the next two years and does not put up the best numbers in the country again, how is it fair to deny him this award based solely on when he had his monster year? There are other reasons he may not win the award, and those come in other contenders.
First and foremost, we must deal with Dennis Dixon of Oregon. Dixon does have a 67.9% completion rate with 2074 yards and 20 touchdowns against 3 interceptions. Unlike Tebow, Dixon has help at the running back and is only second on the team in rushing. Dixon has carried the ball 103 times for 549 yards and 8 touchdowns. Dixon has very typical numbers for an efficient running quarterback, and the numbers are shockingly close to last year’s winner Troy Smith. Still, having RB Jonathan Stewart and the WR duo of Jaison Williams and Ed Dickson makes any quarterback look tons better (think of how bad Troy Smith looked when you took away Ted Ginn last season, leaving him with only Antonio Pittman and Anthony Gonzalez for support). Dixon is the media “front-runner” because of the good BCS position and the likeness to last year’s winner. Tebow has much better numbers overall and carries the best three-loss team in the country in the SEC, which is far more important than Dixon is to the Ducks. This may be a close call, but it is certainly not a blowout for Dixon.
Arkansas RB Darren McFadden will certainly make the trip to New York for the Heisman ceremony this season, mostly on the efforts of last season. McFadden has carried the ball 244 times for 1431 yards and 12 touchdowns, but what has killed his Heisman hopes is the emergence of backup RB Felix Jones (1032 yards and 11 TD). Also taking McFadden out of the mix is the four loss season Arkansas is suffering through, which is bound to get worse with LSU coming up to close the season. McFadden has not even accounted for a third of the Arkansas scoring this season, so Tebow is more important to his team. Given that Florida has a better record in the same conference and the lack of monster numbers, McFadden falls short.
If there’s one player in the country who can compete for the title of most important player to his team, it would be Hawaii QB Colt Brennan. Brennan has been putting up passing numbers worthy of my Xbox quarterbacks who throw every down, and he accounts for over 80% of Hawaii’s offense and scoring (68.9% completion rate, 3216 yards, 28 touchdowns against 12 interceptions). Hawaii is undefeated as well, and Brennan is a senior. Tebow has two things going for him that Brennan does not: a much higher efficiency as a quarterback and conference exposure/respect. Tebow has accounted for more yards than Brennan when adding rushing and throwing totals, and Tebow also is responsible for way more touchdowns and fewer than half the interceptions. Tebow also gets to carry the Gators on national television in the SEC every week, while Brennan beats up on WAC opponents very late at night every weekend. There’s no disputing Brennan is a special quarterback, but this is not even his best season. As a junior Brennan completed 72.6% of his passes for 5549 yards and 58 touchdowns against 12 interceptions. To match those numbers, Brennan would need 30 touchdowns, 2000 yards, and zero interceptions in his final three games. That’s not going to happen, so Tebow gets the edge here too.
With the Louisville Cardinals jumping back to tie the game at 31 last Thursday in Morgantown, West Virginia QB Patrick White forced his team down the field and finished the drive with a 51-yard touchdown run. This was a signature Heisman moment for a guy who has flown under the radar all season due to his teammate Steve Slaton. While Slaton was also considered seriously for the Heisman, Slaton’s injuries have taken him out of the mix (much like Michigan RB Mike Hart). White has run for almost as many yards as Slaton while saving the Mountaineers’ Big East hopes and national title aspirations. White is also an efficient passer when he needs to be, but his statistics pale horribly in comparison to Tebow’s. Again, White just does not have the perfect package to defeat Tebow in this race.
For all those reasons, Tim Tebow should clearly win the Heisman, especially if Florida wins out. He probably will not thanks to Dennis Dixon, but it seems clear that selecting anyone else would be a mistake when considering all the variables that supposedly go into the Heisman.
While on the subject of WVU, I would like to personally thank all the personnel at WVU including Mike M. who made the trip to Morgantown a great time. The game was great and working with fellow writers in the pressbox while the game was going on is an experience I will not soon tire of. Everything looks different from the press perspective, including the post-game interviews. The Morgantown fans also showed a lot of class for the game being a night game…best of all, parking is free at their basketball arena for football games. After getting robbed at Penn State to park farther away, the scene in Morgantown was refreshing. Looking forward to the experience at Ohio University next weekend!
The first game of the week is Boston College at Clemson, a battle for the ACC Atlantic Division crown. Boston College has lost two in a row to Florida State and Maryland after barely escaping Virginia Tech, while Clemson has recovered from a midseason two-game losing streak with four straight wins. Both offenses can crank out the points, but Clemson has a much more balanced attack and the better defense. Eagles QB Matt Ryan will try to salvage his slim Heisman hopes by improving on his 24 touchdowns while not adding to his 13 interceptions. Tiger QB Cullen Harper has been more efficient than Ryan, and sports better numbers (26 TD-4 INT ratio). RB James Davis and RB C.J. Spiller will challenge the Eagle defense in the toughest road environment in the conference (arguably). Clemson also has a settle to score after losing the past two year’s division crowns with overtime losses to BC. Clemson runs away with it this time, winning by 17.
The second game of the week is a battle to likely determine the Big East champion, West Virginia at Cincinnati. The Bearcats have two league losses and trail WVU and UConn by a game, but will likely win the conference with a victory here (Cincinnati only has to beat Syracuse and get WVU to sweep Pittsburgh and UConn to win the conference in a tiebreaker over UConn and WVU). West Virginia remains in control of their own destiny, but wins over their final three opponents are all necessary to reach the BCS. West Virginia’s defense is ranked fourth nationally, but they were exposed against a good offense last Thursday against Louisville. Cincinnati does not boast as good of an offense, but at home the Bearcats have been nearly impossible to stop. QB Ben Mauk will truly test the WVU secondary again, while the Bearcat defense will need to focus on what Patrick White is doing at all times. As long as Cincinnati adjusts defensively, there’s no reason to think WVU will run away with this game. On the contrary, I think the pressure on the road gets to WVU and the Bearcats pull an upset by 7.
The top game of the week is a usual suspect, Ohio State at Michigan. The de facto Big Ten Championship will determine an outright champion for the second straight season. Despite the stakes not being as high as last year (#1 vs. #2), outright Big Ten titles and Rose Bowl berths are nothing to sneeze at. Michigan rested injured QB Chad Henne and RB Mike Hart last week in a loss to Wisconsin, while the Buckeyes were shocked at home by a feisty Illinois team that always plays well against the Bucks. If it were not Michigan week, I would normally say OSU would have trouble getting over the devastating loss to Illinois. Still, this is a “rebuilding year” in Columbus and a Rose Bowl is still very important now that a loss likely drops the Buckeyes out of the BCS picture. QB Todd Boeckman has been very efficient with new superstar targets Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline to throw to, and RB Chris Wells has filled in nicely where Antonio Pittman left off last season. On the other side of the ball, the question will be how healthy Henne and Hart really are. Thankfully Michigan has capable experienced backups in QB Ryan Mallett and RB Brandon Minor, and great WR targets Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington. If Henne and Hart were healthy, this would be the kind of game Michigan would win. Unfortunately, the Sweater Vest has a hex on Michigan recently and his troops are much better defensively, as well as more healthy offensively. These rivalry games are always crazy and too close to call, but this year the Buckeyes should pull away from a fading Wolverine squad by 10.
GOTW Record to Date: 20-16 (.556)
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 – Week 11
1. Kansas (10-0)
2. Oregon (9-1)
3. Oklahoma (9-1)
4. LSU (9-1)
5. Missouri (9-1)
6. West Virginia (9-1)
7. Ohio State (10-1)
8. Hawaii (9-0)
9. Arizona State (9-1)
10. Georgia (8-2)
Just Missed: Boise State, Texas, USC, Virginia Tech, Clemson
This will be the first time in 7 years I will not be seeing Michigan play Ohio State in person and the first time in many weeks I will not be seeing any college football live, so go out there and support your teams in my absence. This is crunch time and a fun time to debate BCS implications with 50,000 of your closest friends. Have a great week!
Thursday, November 8, 2007
The Short List of BCS Title Contenders
Although we did not lose a single team from the zero and one loss club this past weekend, a couple of teams seriously jeopardized their championship chances with first losses (Boston College and Arizona State). Twelve teams remain in the mix for BCS bowls and it is time to discuss the chances for each and every one. Before getting to that, there were a couple notable things in Week 10.
First, congratulations to Navy. No matter how poor of a recruiter or motivator Charlie Weis is at the college level, the Irish still have much more size and talent this year. When 240-lb defensive linemen are trying to bust through 320-lb offensive linemen, it seems like a major mismatch. That did not stop Navy from stepping up to the challenge and breaking the longest losing streak against one team in college football. Charlie Weis will get 1-2 more years to turn things back around, but it appears that things are not so peachy after all in South Bend. Next on the clock is Kentucky against Tennessee, but it will take another two decades of Wildcat futility to reach these proportions.
One interesting point about Notre Dame: while I have always thought the Big Ten would never offer a coveted 12th conference spot to ND after the Irish turned them down in the mid-90’s, this might be the right time to start discussions again. Notre Dame has a huge national following, but NBC cannot be thrilled about showing one of the most pathetic college football teams every week. Notre Dame needs a conference to gain a little credibility and to tone down the schedule a bit. Notre Dame fits geographically in the Big Ten and already plays four Big Ten games a year. The deal finally makes sense for the Big Ten also. Even if the Irish survive as a mid-level conference team, the Big Ten gains a lot of credibility still by adding this program. The Big Ten Network also needs one final push or else it will fall to the cable company demands, and Notre Dame could bring that extra kick. Both sides win, and perhaps the door will open now that Notre Dame will not be able to back into the BCS with 10-2 records every year.
Another interesting game over the weekend brought one of the best stories of the year to the biggest disaster in a few years of this sport, Kansas at Nebraska. The Cornhusker program needs a house cleaning, and it should be done immediately. Here’s guessing Nebraska would be OK with those Frank Solich 10-3 seasons now, but he’s moved on to the promised land of Ohio University and will not be coming back. Nebraska has even more talent than Notre Dame, and the results are shockingly worse. Bill Callahan needs to go restart somewhere else, as there’s nothing more to do to this program. It must really hit home when the Cornhuskers cannot stop Kansas and gives up 76 points, but Kansas is one of three undefeated teams left now. Speaking of that…let’s take a quick look at the BCS Title possibilities for each team on the “short list” of contenders.
Arizona State
Oh, how the dream falls apart so fast. The best news for Arizona State is that Oregon already lost a game to Cal earlier and may drop another, opening the door for the Sun Devils to return to the BCS for the first time in a decade (before there was a BCS applying to the Pac-10 anyway). The downside? How’s a road game at UCLA followed by USC and Arizona at home for you? The Bruins play up to the level of their competition, so the Sun Devils will likely not run the table. Even if they did, they are almost the lowest team on the totem poll, especially if Oregon wins out.
Chance of BCS Title Game: 3%
Boise State
The primary threat to derail Hawaii for the BCS express is last year’s Cinderella, the Broncos. The road loss at Washington was so early that it is nearly forgotten. Outside a 69-67 crazy game against Nevada, Boise State has held the line defensively and blown out most of their opponents. The BCS Title game is an even farther possibility than it was last year, when the Broncos had a legitimate claim to the position. The closing schedule is 0-9 Utah State and 1-9 Idaho to prepare for Hawaii. BSU could sneak in to the BCS with a big win over Hawaii and few breaks in the middle of the BCS standings. Still, no title game hopes.
Chances of BCS Title Game: 0%
Boston College
The Eagles just dropped their first game of the year, and this probably ended all hopes of a national title. The remaining schedule is rough, with road games at Maryland and Clemson followed by Miami and a possible ACC title game against Virginia Tech. If they run that gauntlet, the Eagles will deserve consideration and may get in if things break their way.
Chances of BCS Title Game: 2%
Connecticut
Here’s the shocker of the season, if it's not Kansas. The Huskies are another basketball school that has to wait to turn their full attention to the hard-court. Losing a one point game at Virginia is not too embarrassing, but Connecticut does not have enough street credibility to jump all the other one loss teams. The road game at Cincinnati will be a tough test this week, but the real test will be the closer at West Virginia. No matter how Connecticut does against the Bearcats, the game against WVU will be for the BCS berth. That would be amazing, but the Big East is just that way.
Chances of BCS Title Game: 1%
Hawaii
The Warriors have to be given credit for staying undefeated in the face of adversity. Playing on the US mainland and then converting back to home Pacific time is tough every season. Colt Brennan is unstoppable, but decent teams have been able to keep with the Warriors due to a porous defense. Hawaii comes off their bye week this week and enters the meat of their schedule. Fresno State, Boise State, and Washington are all tough tests, but each has to go to Hawaii. A real trap game might be the Nevada road game between the Bulldogs and Broncos. The schedule is dangerous, but even if Hawaii goes undefeated they will be lucky to just be in a BCS bowl at all, let alone a title game. No chance here, but I doubt Hawaii cares about that. Boise State was certainly OK with last season.
Chances of BCS Title Game: 0%
Kansas
Rock Chalk Jayhawk. All of a sudden basketball is not the only game in Lawrence. As one of only two undefeated teams left (in BCS conferences), there will be a lot of support for them if they get to 13-0. A road game at Oklahoma State might be tricky this weekend, but Kansas should have enough offense to roll the Cowboys and Iowa State next week. Then comes Missouri and Oklahoma, both on neutral fields. With this two wins to close the season, Kansas actually is probably in control of their own destiny in the BCS race instead of LSU and Oregon. That being said, it is hard to win those two games in consecutive weeks.
Chances of BCS Title Game: 25%
LSU
The Bayou Bengals are as close as you can come to being undefeated, losing in triple overtime on the road in the SEC. Still, close calls will make the Oregon-LSU debate too close to call right now and work must still be done to convince voters. Kansas could also steal a spot here, but the Jayhawks have a tough schedule. Arkansas and the SEC title game are the only real threats left on the schedule for LSU, and I expect the Tigers to have a little trouble down the stretch. Still, LSU can thank Florida for beating OSU so badly last year that the SEC has all kinds of credibility and the only one-loss team left in the conference currently sits at #2.
Chances of BCS Title Game: 37%
Missouri
Taking care of business if what got Missouri to this point. A road loss to Oklahoma is more than acceptable, and the Tigers face the same opportunity in front of Kansas, that being closing against two Top 5 teams (Kansas and Oklahoma). Unfortunately for Missouri, the difference between them and Kansas is the one loss. Even by going 12-1, Missouri would lose a debate against Oregon or LSU, and perhaps even West Virginia. Therefore the chances are slim. Closing schedule is A&M followed by K-State and Kansas.
Chances of BCS Title Game: 5%
Ohio State
The Buckeyes certainly know how to take care of business. The reason Ohio State is in the pole position for the second straight year is that OSU just does not lose regular season games against lesser opposition. Only Illinois and Michigan remain on the schedule, and with Mike Hart injured these might not slow the Buckeyes. Any game in Ann Arbor is risky and the Wolverines are on a roll, but with only two games left, you have to like the Buckeyes chances of returning to avenge last season’s embarrassing BCS title game loss.
Chances of BCS Title Game: 70%
Oklahoma
The Sooners lost a shocking game at Colorado, but other than that it has been the expected smooth sailing. A test at Iowa State may actually help them down the road. Baylor and Texas Tech should not be a problem, but the Bedlam game is always tough. Whether Missouri or Kansas shows up in the Big XII title game, Oklahoma should be favored and should win. If they do, LSU and Oregon may have some competition.
Chances of BCS Title Game: 15%
Oregon
Now here’s a real contender, especially after dismantling Arizona State and beating USC. The Ducks have been helped by a favorable home schedule in conference, but don’t discount the huge 39-7 road win at Michigan early in the year. This team can score a lot of points, and they will be able to compare themselves to Ohio State after the Buckeyes go to Ann Arbor in just over a week. Despite the SEC being a slightly better conference than the Pac-10, Oregon should still get the nod if both are fighting for the number two spot. The vote would be very close (and closing with Arizona, UCLA, and Oregon State should make the Ducks 11-1), but LSU gets a couple more percentage points right now for conference affiliation.
Chances of BCS Title Game: 35%
West Virginia
The Mountaineers may be hurt by losing to South Florida, but when both your Heisman candidate skill players are out with injuries in a road conference game…a loss can be understandable. WVU closes with Louisville, Cincinnati, Connecticut, and Pittsburgh. With only Cincinnati on the road and the Morgantown advantage in the other three, the Mountaineers should be 11-1 come December. That will only be enough if they get some serious help, and there’s always the possible WVU choke that comes anytime national titles get within reach. The BCS should happen, anything else would be disappointing.
Chances of BCS Title Game: 20%
Moving onto this week’s slate of games, there are a few gems out there. The first game of the week is Kansas at Oklahoma State. While WVU-Louisville might get headlines for a lack of defense, this game should be another scoring showdown as both teams are in the Top 10 for yards per game nationally. Jayhawk QB Todd Reesing has been scary-efficient this season, and don’t expect OSU to stop that. Both teams run the ball well, and the key will be whose defense steps up for a stop or two. Kansas has more playmakers on that critical side of the ball and Oklahoma State will still be reeling from the collapse against Texas, so Kansas stays undefeated with a 14 point win.
The second game of the week is Connecticut at Cincinnati. This game does not really affect UConn’s chances for the conference title, as only Syracuse and WVU remain for the currently undefeated Huskies. That does not mean this game is not important to UConn, who has something to prove to the nation. Cincinnati is still somewhat in the mix for the conference title, but most beat the Huskies and WVU to have a chance. The Huskies offense and passing game is not great, but the combo threat tailbacks Andre Dixon and Donald Brown will test the Cincinnati front seven. Bearcats QB Ben Mauk leads a confident UC offense, who will need to be efficient to stay with Connecticut. Cincinnati plays very well at home, and this will be a game to expose UConn. Cincinnati wins a big one by 17.
The top game of the week comes from the SEC, and I’ll wait a moment for that shock to wear off. This week’s featured showdown is giant-killer Auburn visiting SEC East leader Georgia. Each team needs a little bit of help in knocking out Tennessee and LSU from the conference championship game, but this game will be crucial as one team gets knocked out of the race. Auburn has been tough defensively, especially against the pass. Georgia QB Matthew Stafford is high quality, but the Bulldogs will need to dominate the battle of the trenches and run the ball successfully to win this game. Auburn is just tough on the good teams, and Tommy Tuberville will not let his boys look ahead to Alabama in two weeks. Tigers by 3 with a fantastic finish.
GOTW Record to Date: 18-15 (.545)
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 – Week 10
1. Ohio State (10-0)
2. Kansas (9-0)
3. Oregon (8-1)
4. Oklahoma (8-1)
5. LSU (8-1)
6. West Virginia (7-1)
7. Hawaii (8-0)
8. Missouri (8-1)
9. Arizona State (8-1)
10. Boston College (8-1)
Just Missed: Michigan, UConn, Georgia, Boise State, Texas
I get to see two games this week, and two national title contenders. WVU-Louisville should be interesting on Thursday night, and OSU-Illinois could be a trap game for the Buckeyes. It’s the best time of year to be a college football fan outside of the end of bowl season, so go out there and enjoy it! See you next week.
First, congratulations to Navy. No matter how poor of a recruiter or motivator Charlie Weis is at the college level, the Irish still have much more size and talent this year. When 240-lb defensive linemen are trying to bust through 320-lb offensive linemen, it seems like a major mismatch. That did not stop Navy from stepping up to the challenge and breaking the longest losing streak against one team in college football. Charlie Weis will get 1-2 more years to turn things back around, but it appears that things are not so peachy after all in South Bend. Next on the clock is Kentucky against Tennessee, but it will take another two decades of Wildcat futility to reach these proportions.
One interesting point about Notre Dame: while I have always thought the Big Ten would never offer a coveted 12th conference spot to ND after the Irish turned them down in the mid-90’s, this might be the right time to start discussions again. Notre Dame has a huge national following, but NBC cannot be thrilled about showing one of the most pathetic college football teams every week. Notre Dame needs a conference to gain a little credibility and to tone down the schedule a bit. Notre Dame fits geographically in the Big Ten and already plays four Big Ten games a year. The deal finally makes sense for the Big Ten also. Even if the Irish survive as a mid-level conference team, the Big Ten gains a lot of credibility still by adding this program. The Big Ten Network also needs one final push or else it will fall to the cable company demands, and Notre Dame could bring that extra kick. Both sides win, and perhaps the door will open now that Notre Dame will not be able to back into the BCS with 10-2 records every year.
Another interesting game over the weekend brought one of the best stories of the year to the biggest disaster in a few years of this sport, Kansas at Nebraska. The Cornhusker program needs a house cleaning, and it should be done immediately. Here’s guessing Nebraska would be OK with those Frank Solich 10-3 seasons now, but he’s moved on to the promised land of Ohio University and will not be coming back. Nebraska has even more talent than Notre Dame, and the results are shockingly worse. Bill Callahan needs to go restart somewhere else, as there’s nothing more to do to this program. It must really hit home when the Cornhuskers cannot stop Kansas and gives up 76 points, but Kansas is one of three undefeated teams left now. Speaking of that…let’s take a quick look at the BCS Title possibilities for each team on the “short list” of contenders.
Arizona State
Oh, how the dream falls apart so fast. The best news for Arizona State is that Oregon already lost a game to Cal earlier and may drop another, opening the door for the Sun Devils to return to the BCS for the first time in a decade (before there was a BCS applying to the Pac-10 anyway). The downside? How’s a road game at UCLA followed by USC and Arizona at home for you? The Bruins play up to the level of their competition, so the Sun Devils will likely not run the table. Even if they did, they are almost the lowest team on the totem poll, especially if Oregon wins out.
Chance of BCS Title Game: 3%
Boise State
The primary threat to derail Hawaii for the BCS express is last year’s Cinderella, the Broncos. The road loss at Washington was so early that it is nearly forgotten. Outside a 69-67 crazy game against Nevada, Boise State has held the line defensively and blown out most of their opponents. The BCS Title game is an even farther possibility than it was last year, when the Broncos had a legitimate claim to the position. The closing schedule is 0-9 Utah State and 1-9 Idaho to prepare for Hawaii. BSU could sneak in to the BCS with a big win over Hawaii and few breaks in the middle of the BCS standings. Still, no title game hopes.
Chances of BCS Title Game: 0%
Boston College
The Eagles just dropped their first game of the year, and this probably ended all hopes of a national title. The remaining schedule is rough, with road games at Maryland and Clemson followed by Miami and a possible ACC title game against Virginia Tech. If they run that gauntlet, the Eagles will deserve consideration and may get in if things break their way.
Chances of BCS Title Game: 2%
Connecticut
Here’s the shocker of the season, if it's not Kansas. The Huskies are another basketball school that has to wait to turn their full attention to the hard-court. Losing a one point game at Virginia is not too embarrassing, but Connecticut does not have enough street credibility to jump all the other one loss teams. The road game at Cincinnati will be a tough test this week, but the real test will be the closer at West Virginia. No matter how Connecticut does against the Bearcats, the game against WVU will be for the BCS berth. That would be amazing, but the Big East is just that way.
Chances of BCS Title Game: 1%
Hawaii
The Warriors have to be given credit for staying undefeated in the face of adversity. Playing on the US mainland and then converting back to home Pacific time is tough every season. Colt Brennan is unstoppable, but decent teams have been able to keep with the Warriors due to a porous defense. Hawaii comes off their bye week this week and enters the meat of their schedule. Fresno State, Boise State, and Washington are all tough tests, but each has to go to Hawaii. A real trap game might be the Nevada road game between the Bulldogs and Broncos. The schedule is dangerous, but even if Hawaii goes undefeated they will be lucky to just be in a BCS bowl at all, let alone a title game. No chance here, but I doubt Hawaii cares about that. Boise State was certainly OK with last season.
Chances of BCS Title Game: 0%
Kansas
Rock Chalk Jayhawk. All of a sudden basketball is not the only game in Lawrence. As one of only two undefeated teams left (in BCS conferences), there will be a lot of support for them if they get to 13-0. A road game at Oklahoma State might be tricky this weekend, but Kansas should have enough offense to roll the Cowboys and Iowa State next week. Then comes Missouri and Oklahoma, both on neutral fields. With this two wins to close the season, Kansas actually is probably in control of their own destiny in the BCS race instead of LSU and Oregon. That being said, it is hard to win those two games in consecutive weeks.
Chances of BCS Title Game: 25%
LSU
The Bayou Bengals are as close as you can come to being undefeated, losing in triple overtime on the road in the SEC. Still, close calls will make the Oregon-LSU debate too close to call right now and work must still be done to convince voters. Kansas could also steal a spot here, but the Jayhawks have a tough schedule. Arkansas and the SEC title game are the only real threats left on the schedule for LSU, and I expect the Tigers to have a little trouble down the stretch. Still, LSU can thank Florida for beating OSU so badly last year that the SEC has all kinds of credibility and the only one-loss team left in the conference currently sits at #2.
Chances of BCS Title Game: 37%
Missouri
Taking care of business if what got Missouri to this point. A road loss to Oklahoma is more than acceptable, and the Tigers face the same opportunity in front of Kansas, that being closing against two Top 5 teams (Kansas and Oklahoma). Unfortunately for Missouri, the difference between them and Kansas is the one loss. Even by going 12-1, Missouri would lose a debate against Oregon or LSU, and perhaps even West Virginia. Therefore the chances are slim. Closing schedule is A&M followed by K-State and Kansas.
Chances of BCS Title Game: 5%
Ohio State
The Buckeyes certainly know how to take care of business. The reason Ohio State is in the pole position for the second straight year is that OSU just does not lose regular season games against lesser opposition. Only Illinois and Michigan remain on the schedule, and with Mike Hart injured these might not slow the Buckeyes. Any game in Ann Arbor is risky and the Wolverines are on a roll, but with only two games left, you have to like the Buckeyes chances of returning to avenge last season’s embarrassing BCS title game loss.
Chances of BCS Title Game: 70%
Oklahoma
The Sooners lost a shocking game at Colorado, but other than that it has been the expected smooth sailing. A test at Iowa State may actually help them down the road. Baylor and Texas Tech should not be a problem, but the Bedlam game is always tough. Whether Missouri or Kansas shows up in the Big XII title game, Oklahoma should be favored and should win. If they do, LSU and Oregon may have some competition.
Chances of BCS Title Game: 15%
Oregon
Now here’s a real contender, especially after dismantling Arizona State and beating USC. The Ducks have been helped by a favorable home schedule in conference, but don’t discount the huge 39-7 road win at Michigan early in the year. This team can score a lot of points, and they will be able to compare themselves to Ohio State after the Buckeyes go to Ann Arbor in just over a week. Despite the SEC being a slightly better conference than the Pac-10, Oregon should still get the nod if both are fighting for the number two spot. The vote would be very close (and closing with Arizona, UCLA, and Oregon State should make the Ducks 11-1), but LSU gets a couple more percentage points right now for conference affiliation.
Chances of BCS Title Game: 35%
West Virginia
The Mountaineers may be hurt by losing to South Florida, but when both your Heisman candidate skill players are out with injuries in a road conference game…a loss can be understandable. WVU closes with Louisville, Cincinnati, Connecticut, and Pittsburgh. With only Cincinnati on the road and the Morgantown advantage in the other three, the Mountaineers should be 11-1 come December. That will only be enough if they get some serious help, and there’s always the possible WVU choke that comes anytime national titles get within reach. The BCS should happen, anything else would be disappointing.
Chances of BCS Title Game: 20%
Moving onto this week’s slate of games, there are a few gems out there. The first game of the week is Kansas at Oklahoma State. While WVU-Louisville might get headlines for a lack of defense, this game should be another scoring showdown as both teams are in the Top 10 for yards per game nationally. Jayhawk QB Todd Reesing has been scary-efficient this season, and don’t expect OSU to stop that. Both teams run the ball well, and the key will be whose defense steps up for a stop or two. Kansas has more playmakers on that critical side of the ball and Oklahoma State will still be reeling from the collapse against Texas, so Kansas stays undefeated with a 14 point win.
The second game of the week is Connecticut at Cincinnati. This game does not really affect UConn’s chances for the conference title, as only Syracuse and WVU remain for the currently undefeated Huskies. That does not mean this game is not important to UConn, who has something to prove to the nation. Cincinnati is still somewhat in the mix for the conference title, but most beat the Huskies and WVU to have a chance. The Huskies offense and passing game is not great, but the combo threat tailbacks Andre Dixon and Donald Brown will test the Cincinnati front seven. Bearcats QB Ben Mauk leads a confident UC offense, who will need to be efficient to stay with Connecticut. Cincinnati plays very well at home, and this will be a game to expose UConn. Cincinnati wins a big one by 17.
The top game of the week comes from the SEC, and I’ll wait a moment for that shock to wear off. This week’s featured showdown is giant-killer Auburn visiting SEC East leader Georgia. Each team needs a little bit of help in knocking out Tennessee and LSU from the conference championship game, but this game will be crucial as one team gets knocked out of the race. Auburn has been tough defensively, especially against the pass. Georgia QB Matthew Stafford is high quality, but the Bulldogs will need to dominate the battle of the trenches and run the ball successfully to win this game. Auburn is just tough on the good teams, and Tommy Tuberville will not let his boys look ahead to Alabama in two weeks. Tigers by 3 with a fantastic finish.
GOTW Record to Date: 18-15 (.545)
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 – Week 10
1. Ohio State (10-0)
2. Kansas (9-0)
3. Oregon (8-1)
4. Oklahoma (8-1)
5. LSU (8-1)
6. West Virginia (7-1)
7. Hawaii (8-0)
8. Missouri (8-1)
9. Arizona State (8-1)
10. Boston College (8-1)
Just Missed: Michigan, UConn, Georgia, Boise State, Texas
I get to see two games this week, and two national title contenders. WVU-Louisville should be interesting on Thursday night, and OSU-Illinois could be a trap game for the Buckeyes. It’s the best time of year to be a college football fan outside of the end of bowl season, so go out there and enjoy it! See you next week.
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