The BCS expanded to five games this year, with one of the main reasons being to make more opportunities for non-BCS schools to get into the big games. Six conference champions and a good Notre Dame team used to leave one at-large spot for non-BCS schools to try and grab, and they were up against the best non-champion school of the BCS conferences, which effectively shut out the non-BCS leagues. Now there are three spots out of ten to try and grab, meaning much better odds. Apparently these conferences missed this memo from the BCS though.
Boise State appears poised to take one of those BCS spots, but everyone knows the Broncos must stay undefeated or watch their BCS dreams disappear. TCU seemed ready to take the BCS up on its offer as well, but the Horned Frogs suddenly dropped off the face of the planet after two losses. Assuming Boise State is indeed the only team that can think about sniffing the BCS money this season (and with no other non-BCS school having fewer than 2 losses, this conclusion seems likely), what is left for the non-BCS conferences come this post-season? Let’s take a look at how all the other conferences currently stand and their bowl outlook at this point midway through the season.
Conference USA
This conference actually has five guaranteed bowl spots to claim, more than any other non-BCS conference. The Liberty Bowl gets the conference champion (vs. SEC), the GMAC Bowl takes second choice (vs. MAC), followed by the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces (in Fort Worth vs. MWC), Birmingham (vs. Big East), and New Orleans (vs. Sun Belt) bowls. The conference also has an automatic spot in the Hawaii Bowl if C-USA has six bowl eligible teams and if the Pac-10 does not have a sixth team for the spot. (Currently I would project this will be filled by a Pac-10 team since seven to eight of them should be bowl eligible at the end of the year.)
The East division has been beaten up this season, with Southern Miss currently carrying the only winning record (4-3). With East Carolina (3-4) having a tough schedule remaining and each other division team already having 5 losses, the East's postseason contribution should be limited to Southern Miss only. The West division is having much better days, as Tulsa (6-1) and Houston (5-3) are certainly going to be bowl eligible and UTEP (4-3) has a favorable schedule as well. SMU is currently 4-4 with two very winnable games left at Rice and home against UAB, so I expect the Mustangs to be in the mix as well. I predict Tulsa will continue rolling to the C-USA title and Liberty Bowl, while Southern Miss drops down past Houston and maybe even UTEP when the bowls come calling.
Bowl Locks: Tulsa, Houston, UTEP, Southern Miss
Bubble Teams: SMU, East Carolina, UAB
Mid-American Conference
The MAC only has three bowl tie-ins for this season. The Motor City bowl takes the champion and places them against the Big 10 #7 (which could be an at-large since Michigan and Ohio State in the BCS means this would be an 8th Big Ten bowl eligible team, and 4-4 Indiana and 4-4 Michigan State would both have to get to six wins for this to happen). The GMAC bowl takes MAC #2 against C-USA #2, and the new International Bowl in Toronto takes MAC #3 against Big East #4-5. There will also probably be opportunities for the MAC to fill in one or two at-large spots left open by the Big 12 or other major conferences with too many spots to fill. The exciting part of this three bowl schedule is that the International and GMAC bowls have moved back to after the BCS bowls but right before the BCS title game January 8, so a lot of national attention will be available.
In the East division, only three teams can merit consideration for bowls. Kent State (5-2) and Ohio (5-3) will play this week, likely for the East division title, and both should be bowl eligible. Bowling Green (4-4) also has an easy schedule the remainder of the season, having already played Kent State, Ohio, and West division leader Central Michigan, but the Falcons have not been impressive other than the road win at Ohio. The West division is Central Michigan’s to lose at 5-3 (5-0 in conference). Western Michigan (5-2) and Northern Illinois (5-3) also can become bowl eligible, but both must play Central Michigan yet (WMU defeated NIU earlier this season). After determining the best two teams in the MAC title game, the remainder of the bowl-possible teams will be hard to distinguish. I’ll hazard a guess of Ohio over Central Michigan in the MAC title game, with Western Michigan and Kent State being the next bowl choices. Bowling Green and Northern Illinois have some serious work to do.
Bowl Locks: Kent State, Central Michigan
Bubble Teams: Ohio, Western Michigan, Bowling Green, Northern Illinois
Mountain West Conference
Unlike the MAC, the Mountain West has all four bowl games on or before December 23, so the MWC will be the highlight of the beginning of bowl season. The MWC champ goes to the Las Vegas Bowl to take on Pac-10 #4, and the second choice goes to the Poinsetta Bowl in San Diego to battle an at-large team (probably another Pac-10 team). The Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth grabs a third team to play against C-USA #4, followed by the final selection by the New Mexico Bowl (vs. WAC #3).
BYU (5-2) has been the class of the conference since knocking off TCU three weeks ago, but the Cougars still have games against each of the next best five teams in the MWC. Wyoming (4-4) stumbled through a tough out-of-conference schedule in September, but a three game winning streak has them in position to perhaps be bowl eligible (if they can manage to win one of three remaining road games at TCU, BYU, and UNLV). TCU (4-2) still has six conference games left after a 0-2 start, but if the Horned Frogs get past Wyoming at home this week, the sailing is smooth until a December 2 showdown at home against Air Force. The Falcons (3-3), New Mexico (4-4), Utah (4-4), and Colorado State (4-3) all have talent, but it is hard to see which of these teams will rise above the rest to end up 8-4 or a more likely 7-5. The MWC could end up with a bunch of 6-6 teams, and if Air Force is one of these teams, they will be chosen for a bowl based on their out-of-conference schedule (Notre Dame, Tennessee, Navy, Army). I’ll guess the four bowl spots go to BYU, TCU, Air Force, and Wyoming.
Bowl Locks: BYU, TCU
Bubble Teams: Air Force, Wyoming, New Mexico, Utah, Colorado State
Sun Belt Conference
This conference is short, sweet, and simple: the champion goes to the New Orleans Bowl to play a C-USA representative, and everybody else stays home. This makes for a very interesting conference race as Arkansas State is currently 3-0 (5-2), Middle Tennessee State is also 3-0 (4-3), Louisiana-Lafayette is 1-0 (4-2), and Troy is also 1-0 (2-4). The Ragin Cajuns of Lafayette seems a little worse than the rest, and Troy has had the worst record against the high-level competition each of these teams has played out-of-conference. This leaves Arkansas State and MTSU. ASU has a brutal November schedule at Auburn, hosting MTSU, at Troy, and at Lafayette. Middle Tennessee has looked good overall, but close wins against the worst of the conference looks worrisome. As long as Auburn does not beat up too much on Arkansas State’s morale, they should prevail over MTSU. Arkansas State finishes 8-4 (6-1) and parties down in the Big Easy.
Bowl Locks: None
Bubble Teams: Arkansas State, Middle Tennessee State, Troy
Western Athletic Conference
Normally there are only three bowl games for WAC teams, but if Boise State goes undefeated as in 2004, the WAC will send 4 teams to bowls because the Broncos will either be BCS bound or will be picked up by a big at-large spot in another bowl. The MPC Computers bowl takes a WAC team to play an ACC team or an at-large, the Hawaii Bowl matches the WAC against the Pac-10, and the New Mexico Bowl matches the WAC versus the MWC.
As mentioned previously, there is no reason to expect anything other than an undefeated season out of Boise State. A loss could not only lose BSU millions of BCS dollars, but also an extra bowl bid for the conference. Hawaii (5-2) has one road trip left in six remaining games to lowly Utah State, so the Warriors will clearly be bowl-eligible (and will most likely be grabbed by the hometown Hawaii Bowl). Idaho (4-4), San Jose State (4-2), and Nevada (4-3) all have games against each other remaining, so the team who loses both those games likely will not be heading to a bowl. It is too hard to tell anything else for two more weeks, as the big story is how far Boise State can take the WAC this year.
Bowl Locks: Boise State, Hawaii
Bubble Teams: San Jose State, Idaho, Nevada
Moving to this week’s top games, I’ll start in honor of the little guys by putting a MAC game that should decide the MAC East title and might decide the conference champion overall: Ohio at Kent State. Ohio has one of the most ineffective offenses in college football this season, but their strong defense has kept them in many games. Kent State has a dual-threat QB in Julian Edelman with 7 TD passing and 5 TD rushing. Edelman has had more rushes than RB Eugene Jarvis, but both have been successful. That combination will challenge Ohio’s defense on the edges in option, bootleg, and screen plays. Ohio QB Austen Everson can also run from time to time, and Kent State may have to watch for that. I think Ohio’s offense does just enough to win this game on the road, cementing Frank Solich’s new legacy at Athens and Ohio’s status as a MAC contender. Ohio wins by 4.
I could preview Miami and Georgia Tech in the ACC, but my choice for second best game of the week is Clemson visiting Virginia Tech on Thursday night. CU is a shady kicking game in double-OT away from being undefeated and clearly winning the Atlantic division, while Virginia Tech has been very disappointing in league play this season at 2-2 (with wins over hapless UNC and Duke). The Tigers must hope for a Boston College loss to win their division, and a loss would all but eliminate them from BCS contention, as well as ACC contention. Blacksburg is not as tough a place to play as it used to be, but a cornered Virginia Tech team can be very dangerous. One “Beamerball” type of special teams turnover could devastate Clemson if they are not careful. The Tigers' rushing attack of C.J. Spiller and James Davis (if he plays) should set the pace and help QB Will Proctor lead the team past the Hokies. Virginia Tech is just having a down year (and using two QBs on Thursday will not help), and Clemson coming to town will not help before the Hurricanes show up next for the Hokies. Clemson by 14.
The game of the week comes from the SEC, and while I have to give a little love to Tennessee and Phil Fulmer trying to get revenge on nemesis Steve Spurrier and South Carolina, the Cocktail Party is just slightly better, and thus is the game of the week. Florida has serious aspirations and has had two weeks to fix whatever went wrong against Auburn. This is the only real threat left on UF's SEC schedule before the championship game. Georgia has been exposed after starting 5-0, and the weak offense cannot carry the Bulldogs through an SEC schedule. QB Chris Leak should have all day to pass on the Georgia secondary, and Tim Tebow is always a threat. Georgia has no go-to guys on offense, and this will make 16 out of 17 for the Gators in this rivalry. Florida rolls by 21.
GOTW 2006 Record to Date: 18-6
Last Week: 3-0
Fitzy’s Top 10 – Week 9
1. Ohio State (8-0)
2. Michigan (8-0)
3. USC (6-0)
4. West Virginia (7-0)
5. Louisville (7-0)
6. Texas (7-1)
7. Tennessee (6-1)
8. Auburn (7-1)
9. California (7-1)
10. Clemson (7-1)
Did anybody hear Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis complaining about Texas jumping his team in the BCS despite “playing a similar game, having to come back luckily at the end?” What a joke! Texas beat a better team on the road, and Notre Dame should not be complaining since they will get paid millions either way thanks to their sweet BCS deal. With so many one-loss teams and no way to distinguish them, nobody should complain until we all see what happens on the field. Either the system will work (meaning USC and OSU/UM win out and make it work) or it will not, and then we can complain. Until then, every little move is not worth getting upset over Charlie (and everyone else). Hopefully another great week of football greets us this Saturday. Have a great week!
Thursday, October 26, 2006
Thursday, October 19, 2006
DOLING OUT PUNISHMENT: THE BRAWL REVISITED
When looking at the schedule of games last weekend, Miami hosting winless Florida International looked like one of the few games completely not worth watching, as both teams were unranked, the game was out-of-conference, and Miami was undoubtedly going to pound the in-state smaller school on the home turf. Little did anyone know that the pounding Miami gave to FIU would have nothing to do with football.
After scoring the second touchdown of the game to go up 13-0, the Miami receiver taunted FIU by taking a bow. After earning the unsportsmanlike conduct penalty, UM kicked the extra point to go up 14-0. Clearly Miami was winning this game (and they did 35-0), but why all the bragging about beating one of the worst ten teams in college football? A melee ensued after the PAT, which involved everything from Anthony Reddick using his helmet as a head-bashing tool to Brandon Meriweather cleating and stomping the backs of FIU players already on the turf getting beat by other Miami players. Former Hurricane Lamar Thomas was a TVccommentator for the game, and instead of condemning his home team for their actions, he contributes wonderful quotes such as “I wish I could go down the elevator and join my boys on the field” and “that’s what I’m talking about, you come into Miami you leave with your butt whipped.”
The ramifications of this game are not yet clear, but most of the fallout has appeared to happen already in swift fashion. FIU suspended 16 players indefinitely, and Miami suspended 15 players for one game each (and Reddick indefinitely). Lamar Thomas was promptly shown the exit door and will not be a commentator perhaps ever again. When asked about the debacle, Miami coach Larry Coker said “this was just a bad day, and I have very few bad days.” The understatement and the lack of outrage from the university is appalling. Shouldn’t there be more punishment from the ACC or the NCAA in this case?
Under Butch Davis, Miami won a national title and almost removed the “Thug U” label the university earned by its antics while being a winning team in the 80’s and 90’s. Larry Coker took over, immediately lost his first national title game against Ohio State in 2003, and the program has spiraled downward since then in both football prestige and in class. Here’s just a sample of what is wrong with Miami:
1. You can easily find footage on YouTube and other websites of Miami players in the past four seasons doling out late hits, unsportsman-like celebrations, and other dirty hits on the field of play under Larry Coker.
2. After losing 40-3 to LSU in the 2005 Peach Bowl, Miami players started a brawl with the Bayou Bengals in the tunnel after the game like sore losers.
3. Using style that makes Maurice Clarett look innocent, Miami players returned gunfire from an off-campus residence to other Miami thugs in the offseason.
4. Also in the offseason, a few players recorded a nearly-unbearable profane-laden song described in this ESPN.com article.
5. Before the big showdown at Louisville three weeks ago, Miami players rushed to the center of the field and stomped on it to enrage the Louisville players. Miami went on to lose that game too, 31-7, to a team missing two of its best offensive leaders.
6. And then the brawl on Saturday night, which required over 20 uniformed police officers to break up. Miami celebrated on their sideline by jumping up and down with helmets in the air, apparently over winning the fight or perhaps over beating such a great opponent.
I shudder to think how anybody could cheer for a team who acts like this and not see something terribly wrong with this program. The ACC was willing to bring in Boston College and deal with this baggage because they thought that Miami would improve the football stature of the conference. This season the ACC is a joke at best, mostly due to Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Miami. So what should Miami do about this in the aftermath of the latest debacle? Here are a few suggestions:
First, suspend all the players who participated in the brawl indefinitely or for the rest of the season, not just one game. It is embarrassing when Florida International is tougher on its players than you are, showing a lack of understanding how serious this problem has become. FIU has no reputation as anything other than a lower-level Division 1-A football school, and by taking tough action, FIU proves this conduct is not acceptable. If Miami truly wants to stay away from the “Thug U” label, the university should either suspend all of those players for the remainder of the season or kick them off the football team and make them walk-on next season if they wish to continue playing. The conduct was nothing short of assault and battery, and just because it happened on the football field does not mean we can excuse it with a one-game suspension, the equivalent of a wrist-slap.
Second, decline any bowl invitation this season. This is what Clemson and South Carolina did to punish their players two years ago, and as a team I think this would be appropriate for the overall direction of the program. I do not think the other players who took no part in the brawl should be unduly burdened or punished by forfeiting every game left on the schedule, but suspending the players for the season as described in step one will obviously hurt Miami’s chances to win games for the remainder of the season. There is no reason to honor this team and athletic department with a bowl game and the money attached to that, so the university should kindly decline any such invitations come December.
Lastly, fire Larry Coker and clean house in the athletic department. I wrote two weeks ago about how Michigan State’s John L. Smith and Coker were neck and neck to be the first fired in 2006 (or 2007), but now Coker has taken a commanding lead in this race to the pink slip. Coker’s initial reaction to the brawl to the media was, “I think this will affect the image of this program, but in a very positive way; this won’t be a negative for the University of Miami.” Coker also said, “I do have a grip on this program, don’t ever doubt that, don’t ever doubt that.” The above evidence shows that Miami is headed right back to their “Thug U” days, except without winning national or conference titles, so Coker is delusional if he thinks he has a grip on the program.
Losing four games in a row at Michigan State and having a small verbal fight with Illinois when the Illini showed no class by planting their flag at midfield does not look good, but at least the Spartans did not fight rival UM in the tunnel after getting beat 31-13 or start a brawl with Ohio State when the Buckeyes were rolling to a 38-7 win this week. I would undoubtedly fire John L. Smith at the end of the season, but Coker should be fired immediately. The program is losing control on and off the football field, and someone more authoritative such as Butch Davis needs to be brought back in. I do not expect anything like Jim Tressel has going at Ohio State, with Christian values being taught to players and prayer circles after every game, win or lose. I do, however, expect every football power in Division I-A to be classy enough to conduct their business on and off the field in a positive manner.
If things continue down this road, I would begin to look at more serious penalties, such as NCAA scholarship sanctions and maybe even the death penalty for the football program. We are not at that point yet, but these are possibilities if “Thug U” comes back in style in southern Florida. The most embarrassing program in major college football needs to be stopped before it brings shame on the rest of the sport.
Now getting back to battles on the field, the top three games of the week begin with a Big Ten conference showdown as Iowa visits Michigan. The luster of this game has been dampened quite a bit with UM and Ohio State running away with the Big Ten (and Iowa’s shocking upset at Indiana last weekend), but make no mistake that Iowa has a chance in this game. Critical mistakes the Hawkeyes made against Ohio State (choosing to take the ball first in the first half and costly turnovers, for example) will need to be cleaned up for this game to be close. This is Michigan’s last “big” game before the showdown at Columbus, so I expect QB Chad Henne and RB Mike Hart (and perhaps WR Mario Manningham) to be ready to run all day over the conservative coverage of Iowa. Iowa obviously looked past Indiana to this game, so the question will be how they can respond to that embarrassing loss. I think Iowa QB Drew Tate plays the game of his life, but the talent of Michigan is just too much in the end. Michigan wins by 7.
The second game of the week is a preview of a likely Big XII Championship game, Texas at Nebraska. Both teams are undefeated and lead their divisions, but both have lost early to national title frontrunners, Ohio State and USC. The Longhorns are on quite a roll, and only the vaunted Ohio State defense was able to hold them under 28 points. Nebraska is the best run defense unit Texas has faced since then, and RB Selvin Young and the Texas O-Line must step up to keep the pressure off QB Colt McCoy. Nebraska has a nice running game to control and quicken the pace of games, but Texas has a good enough offense to not care about fewer opportunities. If Nebraska makes Texas one-dimensional and gets out to a third quarter lead, the Cornhuskers might make this interesting. Texas will not pull away as easily as they did in the second half against Oklahoma, but the Longhorns will win the toughest game left on their schedule by a margin of 10.
The game of the week is shockingly from the ACC, the much-maligned conference with nobody over-achieving this season (Wake Forest is that good). Georgia Tech visits Clemson in what might also be a preview of the conference championship game in December. Georgia Tech has a big lead in the Coastal division (effectively 3 games on everyone except Miami, who the Jackets have a 1 game lead over), while Clemson is mired in a virtual 5-way tie for the Atlantic division lead with Florida State one back in the loss column. The Tigers must hope Boston College loses another game or two for Clemson to win the division, and Tommy Bowden’s boys know they must win their last 4 conference games to truly make a run at a league title. Both teams have great offensive attacks, Clemson led by QB Will Proctor and RB James Davis and Georgia Tech led by standout QB Reggie Ball and WR Calvin Johnson. Clemson’s defense should be able to slow the Jackets down, while Georgia Tech is suspect against the passing game (which bodes well for CU). Other intangibles against Georgia Tech are the tough environment in Death Valley and the irrelevance of this game to their ACC title hopes (beating Miami next week would lock up the Coastal division essentially). Georgia Tech is looking forward to bashing Miami, and Clemson rolls on with a 14 point win.
GOTW 2006 Record to Date: 15-6
Last Week: 2-1
Fitzy’s Top 10 – Week 8
1. Ohio State (7-0)
2. Michigan (7-0)
3. USC (6-0)
4. West Virginia (6-0)
5. Louisville (6-0)
6. Texas (6-1)
7. Tennessee (5-1)
8. California (6-1)
9. Notre Dame (6-1)
10. Auburn (6-1)
Every week, college football has been losing undefeated teams, and the number dropped from 9 to 7 last week (bye-bye Missouri and Florida). Will this be the first week the remaining undefeated teams hold serve? Rutgers could be a casualty this week, so keep an eye on their game with Pittsburgh. Have a great football weekend!
After scoring the second touchdown of the game to go up 13-0, the Miami receiver taunted FIU by taking a bow. After earning the unsportsmanlike conduct penalty, UM kicked the extra point to go up 14-0. Clearly Miami was winning this game (and they did 35-0), but why all the bragging about beating one of the worst ten teams in college football? A melee ensued after the PAT, which involved everything from Anthony Reddick using his helmet as a head-bashing tool to Brandon Meriweather cleating and stomping the backs of FIU players already on the turf getting beat by other Miami players. Former Hurricane Lamar Thomas was a TVccommentator for the game, and instead of condemning his home team for their actions, he contributes wonderful quotes such as “I wish I could go down the elevator and join my boys on the field” and “that’s what I’m talking about, you come into Miami you leave with your butt whipped.”
The ramifications of this game are not yet clear, but most of the fallout has appeared to happen already in swift fashion. FIU suspended 16 players indefinitely, and Miami suspended 15 players for one game each (and Reddick indefinitely). Lamar Thomas was promptly shown the exit door and will not be a commentator perhaps ever again. When asked about the debacle, Miami coach Larry Coker said “this was just a bad day, and I have very few bad days.” The understatement and the lack of outrage from the university is appalling. Shouldn’t there be more punishment from the ACC or the NCAA in this case?
Under Butch Davis, Miami won a national title and almost removed the “Thug U” label the university earned by its antics while being a winning team in the 80’s and 90’s. Larry Coker took over, immediately lost his first national title game against Ohio State in 2003, and the program has spiraled downward since then in both football prestige and in class. Here’s just a sample of what is wrong with Miami:
1. You can easily find footage on YouTube and other websites of Miami players in the past four seasons doling out late hits, unsportsman-like celebrations, and other dirty hits on the field of play under Larry Coker.
2. After losing 40-3 to LSU in the 2005 Peach Bowl, Miami players started a brawl with the Bayou Bengals in the tunnel after the game like sore losers.
3. Using style that makes Maurice Clarett look innocent, Miami players returned gunfire from an off-campus residence to other Miami thugs in the offseason.
4. Also in the offseason, a few players recorded a nearly-unbearable profane-laden song described in this ESPN.com article.
5. Before the big showdown at Louisville three weeks ago, Miami players rushed to the center of the field and stomped on it to enrage the Louisville players. Miami went on to lose that game too, 31-7, to a team missing two of its best offensive leaders.
6. And then the brawl on Saturday night, which required over 20 uniformed police officers to break up. Miami celebrated on their sideline by jumping up and down with helmets in the air, apparently over winning the fight or perhaps over beating such a great opponent.
I shudder to think how anybody could cheer for a team who acts like this and not see something terribly wrong with this program. The ACC was willing to bring in Boston College and deal with this baggage because they thought that Miami would improve the football stature of the conference. This season the ACC is a joke at best, mostly due to Florida State, Virginia Tech, and Miami. So what should Miami do about this in the aftermath of the latest debacle? Here are a few suggestions:
First, suspend all the players who participated in the brawl indefinitely or for the rest of the season, not just one game. It is embarrassing when Florida International is tougher on its players than you are, showing a lack of understanding how serious this problem has become. FIU has no reputation as anything other than a lower-level Division 1-A football school, and by taking tough action, FIU proves this conduct is not acceptable. If Miami truly wants to stay away from the “Thug U” label, the university should either suspend all of those players for the remainder of the season or kick them off the football team and make them walk-on next season if they wish to continue playing. The conduct was nothing short of assault and battery, and just because it happened on the football field does not mean we can excuse it with a one-game suspension, the equivalent of a wrist-slap.
Second, decline any bowl invitation this season. This is what Clemson and South Carolina did to punish their players two years ago, and as a team I think this would be appropriate for the overall direction of the program. I do not think the other players who took no part in the brawl should be unduly burdened or punished by forfeiting every game left on the schedule, but suspending the players for the season as described in step one will obviously hurt Miami’s chances to win games for the remainder of the season. There is no reason to honor this team and athletic department with a bowl game and the money attached to that, so the university should kindly decline any such invitations come December.
Lastly, fire Larry Coker and clean house in the athletic department. I wrote two weeks ago about how Michigan State’s John L. Smith and Coker were neck and neck to be the first fired in 2006 (or 2007), but now Coker has taken a commanding lead in this race to the pink slip. Coker’s initial reaction to the brawl to the media was, “I think this will affect the image of this program, but in a very positive way; this won’t be a negative for the University of Miami.” Coker also said, “I do have a grip on this program, don’t ever doubt that, don’t ever doubt that.” The above evidence shows that Miami is headed right back to their “Thug U” days, except without winning national or conference titles, so Coker is delusional if he thinks he has a grip on the program.
Losing four games in a row at Michigan State and having a small verbal fight with Illinois when the Illini showed no class by planting their flag at midfield does not look good, but at least the Spartans did not fight rival UM in the tunnel after getting beat 31-13 or start a brawl with Ohio State when the Buckeyes were rolling to a 38-7 win this week. I would undoubtedly fire John L. Smith at the end of the season, but Coker should be fired immediately. The program is losing control on and off the football field, and someone more authoritative such as Butch Davis needs to be brought back in. I do not expect anything like Jim Tressel has going at Ohio State, with Christian values being taught to players and prayer circles after every game, win or lose. I do, however, expect every football power in Division I-A to be classy enough to conduct their business on and off the field in a positive manner.
If things continue down this road, I would begin to look at more serious penalties, such as NCAA scholarship sanctions and maybe even the death penalty for the football program. We are not at that point yet, but these are possibilities if “Thug U” comes back in style in southern Florida. The most embarrassing program in major college football needs to be stopped before it brings shame on the rest of the sport.
Now getting back to battles on the field, the top three games of the week begin with a Big Ten conference showdown as Iowa visits Michigan. The luster of this game has been dampened quite a bit with UM and Ohio State running away with the Big Ten (and Iowa’s shocking upset at Indiana last weekend), but make no mistake that Iowa has a chance in this game. Critical mistakes the Hawkeyes made against Ohio State (choosing to take the ball first in the first half and costly turnovers, for example) will need to be cleaned up for this game to be close. This is Michigan’s last “big” game before the showdown at Columbus, so I expect QB Chad Henne and RB Mike Hart (and perhaps WR Mario Manningham) to be ready to run all day over the conservative coverage of Iowa. Iowa obviously looked past Indiana to this game, so the question will be how they can respond to that embarrassing loss. I think Iowa QB Drew Tate plays the game of his life, but the talent of Michigan is just too much in the end. Michigan wins by 7.
The second game of the week is a preview of a likely Big XII Championship game, Texas at Nebraska. Both teams are undefeated and lead their divisions, but both have lost early to national title frontrunners, Ohio State and USC. The Longhorns are on quite a roll, and only the vaunted Ohio State defense was able to hold them under 28 points. Nebraska is the best run defense unit Texas has faced since then, and RB Selvin Young and the Texas O-Line must step up to keep the pressure off QB Colt McCoy. Nebraska has a nice running game to control and quicken the pace of games, but Texas has a good enough offense to not care about fewer opportunities. If Nebraska makes Texas one-dimensional and gets out to a third quarter lead, the Cornhuskers might make this interesting. Texas will not pull away as easily as they did in the second half against Oklahoma, but the Longhorns will win the toughest game left on their schedule by a margin of 10.
The game of the week is shockingly from the ACC, the much-maligned conference with nobody over-achieving this season (Wake Forest is that good). Georgia Tech visits Clemson in what might also be a preview of the conference championship game in December. Georgia Tech has a big lead in the Coastal division (effectively 3 games on everyone except Miami, who the Jackets have a 1 game lead over), while Clemson is mired in a virtual 5-way tie for the Atlantic division lead with Florida State one back in the loss column. The Tigers must hope Boston College loses another game or two for Clemson to win the division, and Tommy Bowden’s boys know they must win their last 4 conference games to truly make a run at a league title. Both teams have great offensive attacks, Clemson led by QB Will Proctor and RB James Davis and Georgia Tech led by standout QB Reggie Ball and WR Calvin Johnson. Clemson’s defense should be able to slow the Jackets down, while Georgia Tech is suspect against the passing game (which bodes well for CU). Other intangibles against Georgia Tech are the tough environment in Death Valley and the irrelevance of this game to their ACC title hopes (beating Miami next week would lock up the Coastal division essentially). Georgia Tech is looking forward to bashing Miami, and Clemson rolls on with a 14 point win.
GOTW 2006 Record to Date: 15-6
Last Week: 2-1
Fitzy’s Top 10 – Week 8
1. Ohio State (7-0)
2. Michigan (7-0)
3. USC (6-0)
4. West Virginia (6-0)
5. Louisville (6-0)
6. Texas (6-1)
7. Tennessee (5-1)
8. California (6-1)
9. Notre Dame (6-1)
10. Auburn (6-1)
Every week, college football has been losing undefeated teams, and the number dropped from 9 to 7 last week (bye-bye Missouri and Florida). Will this be the first week the remaining undefeated teams hold serve? Rutgers could be a casualty this week, so keep an eye on their game with Pittsburgh. Have a great football weekend!
Thursday, October 12, 2006
THE MARCH OF THE UNDEFEATED TEAMS
The goal: twelve wins and zero losses. Easier said than done with the parity in modern college football. In case you were too busy watching the baseball playoffs, the college football season has reached the critical half-way point. With the first BCS standings looming after this weekend and undefeated teams disappearing rapidly, now is an appropriate time to analyze the handful of teams that can still run the gauntlet and finish the dream regular season. Every week is a playoff in college football, and clearly this is the time of year where the true contenders find conference tests weekly.
Last week there were 13 unbeaten teams, but the first week of October claimed four more undefeated lives, those of Wake Forest (Clemson), Oregon (California), Georgia (Tennessee), and Auburn (Arkansas). What is most shocking is that three of these four teams were beat on their home fields, and all four were beaten handily (although Wake Forest fell apart in the second half). This proves that no game is a safety game, and any decent team can give the big boys more than they can handle on certain Saturdays. The undefeated fraternity is down to nine members, and I cover them in alphabetical order.
BOISE STATE: 6-0, 2-0 WAC
The Broncos are the lowest rated undefeated, and this comes from being the only non-BCS conference undefeated left after the implosion of TCU. Four of their games have come on the blue turf at home, but only two of their remaining six are in Boise. As far as possible slip-ups left on the schedule, San Jose State and Nevada could give the Broncos problems in the final three weeks of the season. This team would not make the BCS title game even if they go undefeated, but this will not be a problem as I expect Boise to fall in November at least once. Final record should be 11-1.
FLORIDA: 6-0, 4-0 SEC
The good news for Tennessee is that they remain only one game behind Florida in the standings, but the bad news is the Volunteers need Florida to lose at least two of the next four games to give up the SEC East lead. Chris Leak has put up Heisman-worthy performances and Tim Tebow proved he is more than a running threat last week. Normally I do not endorse the dual QB system, but in this case, perhaps it will work since Tebow plays a specific non-QB type role most of the time. Other than the one point win at Tennessee, Florida has looked good or at least better than the competition. If UF makes it past the next two weeks at Auburn and vs. Georgia, the road should become easier since the biggest remaining tests are South Carolina at home and Florida State on the road. I still think the SEC is too tough to run away with, so I project the Gators finishing 11-1 with a very possible second loss to Arkansas or Auburn in the SEC title game. If the Gators go undefeated, nothing should keep them from Glendale, AZ.
LOUISVILLE: 5-0, 0-0 Big East
Despite playing no real competition other than Miami in the first 6 weeks of the season and no conference games, Louisville has been highly impressive thus far. The reason for this is that the Cardinals have played a good majority of the schedule without starting QB Brian Brohm and RB Michael Bush. Brohm should be back this week or next week to tune up before the most important game of the season when they host West Virginia. Look out for a trap game the week following at Rutgers, another current undefeated. Both Louisville and West Virginia play really easy schedules, not counting their head-to-head battle and playing Rutgers, so the winner of that game should go undefeated. I think WVU will get the job done again this year in November and Louisville finishes 11-1.
MICHIGAN: 6-0, 3-0 Big Ten
The only real question for Michigan thus far is where did this team come from? QB Chad Henne and RB Mike Hart had great freshman seasons two years ago, but both bumbled through a 7-5 year last year. Until Florida cemented its #2 status last week, Michigan had been the default second best team in the country, in my opinion, after blasting overrated Notre Dame on the road by 26. Grinding out two-touchdown wins against Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan State in conference play might not sound impressive, but the Wolverines have looked good. The next two weeks are the only tests before the big trip to Columbus in November, and Penn State and Iowa failed to take out the other undefeated in the Big Ten already this season. Iowa has a better team, but Penn State stands a better chance since the game is in Happy Valley and the weather looks bad, which helped PSU against OSU. Even if the Wolverines escape Happy Valley, the toss-up game with OSU will probably go sour like most of the past 5 years. I’ll predict 11-1, but 10-2 would not be surprising. The good news? Michigan will be in the Rose Bowl again with an 11-1 record.
MISSOURI: 6-0, 2-0 Big XII
Ranked similarly with Boise State, Missouri is the lone Big XII undefeated left after Texas lost in September. Coming into this season, you would have thought Missouri would suffer from losing a veteran long-time leader in QB Brad Smith, but such was not the case. This team did not seem legitimate until winning at Texas Tech last week, but the tests get tougher. Missouri gets to miss Texas at least until the conference title game, but the Tigers also miss the worst two south division teams, Baylor and OSU. I suspect the Tigers will struggle to win more than one of the early November three-game stretch run (Oklahoma, at Nebraska, at Iowa State). Missouri will clearly make a good bowl game, but I see no Big XII title game or undefeated season in their future. 9-3 is my call.
OHIO STATE: 6-0, 2-0 Big Ten
After surviving the toughest September stretch outside of South Bend, IN, the Buckeyes have more than cemented the number one ranking they’ve held since the beginning of the year. Only one team has even had the ball in the fourth quarter within 8 points (Penn State) against the Bucks, but no team has finished within 17 points. The Buckeyes have blasted Garrett Wolfe and Northern Illinois, beaten down Texas and Iowa on the road, and survived slow starts against Penn State and Cincinnati. The only knock on the Buckeyes is that they give up quite a few yards on the ground, but like Tressel’s 2002 national title team, these Buckeyes know how to keep points off the scoreboard any way possible. Michigan State was supposed to be a trap game on the road this week, but MSU has had an earlier-than-anticipated meltdown and will have to pull it together in a hurry to keep up with the Buckeyes. It should be smooth sailing until Michigan, but the Buckeyes still remember the 1998 team which choked a sure national title at home against unranked MSU in November of that year. Don’t expect the same mistakes from this squad. I call for 12-0 and a trip to the national title game.
RUTGERS: 5-0, 1-0 Big East
The biggest surprise even over Missouri are the Scarlet Knights, who are threatening to make the Big East more than a one-game conference. Rutgers has looked fantastic at home, but both road games have been dicey (21-16 over UNC, 22-20 over USF). Rutgers, fresh off a bye week, will be truly tested by Navy and their option power offense this week. Even though Rutgers might catch a break by upsetting Louisville at home after the UL-WVU game, the December trip to Morgantown will certainly end any title hopes. Best case scenario is splitting the Big East title three ways, but I predict the run ends at Navy this week and a 9-3 finish.
USC: 5-0, 3-0 Pac-10
All of a sudden, the season-opening beatdowns of Arkansas and Nebraska seem a lot better as both those teams are leading their conference divisions. The home of Fight On, Song Girls, and the last two Heisman winners have proven tough to stop in the regular season the past three years. Two lackluster wins against the Washington state schools has most people worried, but perhaps this team will be like OSU 2002, winning lots of games ugly but still winning them all. Oregon, California, and Notre Dame will be a tough stretch of games in November, but all three come at home. I think California will win if they play like the Golden Bears have the past few weeks, but Notre Dame will be ready for revenge as well. Hard to see the Trojans losing more than one, but 11-1 seems right.
WEST VIRGINIA: 5-0, 0-0 Big East
The Mountaineers have had it all set up for a national title run since schedules were announced last year. WVU finally lived up to expectations last season, winning the league title and a BCS bowl against tough competition Georgia. This season no Virginia Tech game is in the way of the Mountaineers, and the only question is if the team can handle the pressure. I think they run the table after beating Louisville in a true tough road test, and I guess that Steve Slaton will be the key to winning every game remaining. 12-0 is in reach and should propel WVU to the BCS title game against OSU, unless Florida goes undefeated as well.
It should be very interesting to see how it all plays out this week and every week, as the games last week proved any undefeated is always beatable. Auburn was the first huge upset of the year, but the Tigers will not be alone. One-loss teams to keep an eye on as possible title contenders should all others fall include Texas, Notre Dame, and California. I would add Auburn to this list, but nobody likes a team who cannot even have a chance to win the league title, and I doubt Arkansas gives up the division. OSU and WVU are my current pick to play in Glendale, but I will not be surprised if Louisville and Michigan or some other unranked teams derail those plans.
All three of my games of the week involve huge tests for some of the undefeated teams listed above, and the first is Rutgers visiting Navy. Navy is a one-point loss away from being undefeated, and the option offense usually gives opponents fits. Both teams would love to lock up bowl eligibility, and Navy might be looking forward to the showdown with Notre Dame next week. Navy also would not want to lose two in a row, and Rutgers has played very poorly on the road thus far. This game will set speed records for finishing time, as two of the top 10 rushing teams will meet on the field (and both are in the bottom 7 in passing offense). Navy wins by 14.
The second game of note is the primetime national TV showdown pitting Michigan at Penn State. Penn State is the only team to give Ohio State a real run this year, and PSU is tough to beat in bad weather night home games (just ask OSU last year). Without superstar WR Mario Manningham, Michigan will probably struggle to move the ball if PSU stacks up against the run. The key to this game will be not making a mistake, and I think Michigan’s defense will come up with a crucial turnover late to lock up the game. Big Blue continues rolling with a 4 point victory.
The game of the week comes from the SEC again as Florida travels to Auburn. UF took over the Tigers' spot as top team in the SEC after beating LSU and AU's home loss to Arkansas. Auburn might have been looking forward to a battle of the last two conference undefeated teams this week. Florida cannot make mistakes like last week again, and Auburn will not be shocked this time around. I’ll take Auburn simply based on home field advantage and the fact that the SEC usually beats each other silly before the end of October. The curse on number two continues, and Auburn wins by 3.
GOTW 2006 Record to Date: 13-5
Last Week: 3-0
Fitzy’s Top 10 – Week 7
1. Ohio State (6-0)
2. Florida (6-0)
3. Michigan (6-0)
4. USC (5-0)
5. West Virginia (5-0)
6. Texas (5-1)
7. Louisville (5-0)
8. Tennessee (5-1)
9. California (4-1)
10. Notre Dame (5-1)
Have another fantastic week. I am in the middle of five straight weekends of going to Ohio State games. Hopefully the Spartans make it a little more interesting than Iowa and BGSU, but we will see if John L. Smith has anything left. I hope all of you get a chance to see one of the great games on tap this weekend, and we’ll see you back here next week after the BCS sullies up the college football world.
Last week there were 13 unbeaten teams, but the first week of October claimed four more undefeated lives, those of Wake Forest (Clemson), Oregon (California), Georgia (Tennessee), and Auburn (Arkansas). What is most shocking is that three of these four teams were beat on their home fields, and all four were beaten handily (although Wake Forest fell apart in the second half). This proves that no game is a safety game, and any decent team can give the big boys more than they can handle on certain Saturdays. The undefeated fraternity is down to nine members, and I cover them in alphabetical order.
BOISE STATE: 6-0, 2-0 WAC
The Broncos are the lowest rated undefeated, and this comes from being the only non-BCS conference undefeated left after the implosion of TCU. Four of their games have come on the blue turf at home, but only two of their remaining six are in Boise. As far as possible slip-ups left on the schedule, San Jose State and Nevada could give the Broncos problems in the final three weeks of the season. This team would not make the BCS title game even if they go undefeated, but this will not be a problem as I expect Boise to fall in November at least once. Final record should be 11-1.
FLORIDA: 6-0, 4-0 SEC
The good news for Tennessee is that they remain only one game behind Florida in the standings, but the bad news is the Volunteers need Florida to lose at least two of the next four games to give up the SEC East lead. Chris Leak has put up Heisman-worthy performances and Tim Tebow proved he is more than a running threat last week. Normally I do not endorse the dual QB system, but in this case, perhaps it will work since Tebow plays a specific non-QB type role most of the time. Other than the one point win at Tennessee, Florida has looked good or at least better than the competition. If UF makes it past the next two weeks at Auburn and vs. Georgia, the road should become easier since the biggest remaining tests are South Carolina at home and Florida State on the road. I still think the SEC is too tough to run away with, so I project the Gators finishing 11-1 with a very possible second loss to Arkansas or Auburn in the SEC title game. If the Gators go undefeated, nothing should keep them from Glendale, AZ.
LOUISVILLE: 5-0, 0-0 Big East
Despite playing no real competition other than Miami in the first 6 weeks of the season and no conference games, Louisville has been highly impressive thus far. The reason for this is that the Cardinals have played a good majority of the schedule without starting QB Brian Brohm and RB Michael Bush. Brohm should be back this week or next week to tune up before the most important game of the season when they host West Virginia. Look out for a trap game the week following at Rutgers, another current undefeated. Both Louisville and West Virginia play really easy schedules, not counting their head-to-head battle and playing Rutgers, so the winner of that game should go undefeated. I think WVU will get the job done again this year in November and Louisville finishes 11-1.
MICHIGAN: 6-0, 3-0 Big Ten
The only real question for Michigan thus far is where did this team come from? QB Chad Henne and RB Mike Hart had great freshman seasons two years ago, but both bumbled through a 7-5 year last year. Until Florida cemented its #2 status last week, Michigan had been the default second best team in the country, in my opinion, after blasting overrated Notre Dame on the road by 26. Grinding out two-touchdown wins against Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan State in conference play might not sound impressive, but the Wolverines have looked good. The next two weeks are the only tests before the big trip to Columbus in November, and Penn State and Iowa failed to take out the other undefeated in the Big Ten already this season. Iowa has a better team, but Penn State stands a better chance since the game is in Happy Valley and the weather looks bad, which helped PSU against OSU. Even if the Wolverines escape Happy Valley, the toss-up game with OSU will probably go sour like most of the past 5 years. I’ll predict 11-1, but 10-2 would not be surprising. The good news? Michigan will be in the Rose Bowl again with an 11-1 record.
MISSOURI: 6-0, 2-0 Big XII
Ranked similarly with Boise State, Missouri is the lone Big XII undefeated left after Texas lost in September. Coming into this season, you would have thought Missouri would suffer from losing a veteran long-time leader in QB Brad Smith, but such was not the case. This team did not seem legitimate until winning at Texas Tech last week, but the tests get tougher. Missouri gets to miss Texas at least until the conference title game, but the Tigers also miss the worst two south division teams, Baylor and OSU. I suspect the Tigers will struggle to win more than one of the early November three-game stretch run (Oklahoma, at Nebraska, at Iowa State). Missouri will clearly make a good bowl game, but I see no Big XII title game or undefeated season in their future. 9-3 is my call.
OHIO STATE: 6-0, 2-0 Big Ten
After surviving the toughest September stretch outside of South Bend, IN, the Buckeyes have more than cemented the number one ranking they’ve held since the beginning of the year. Only one team has even had the ball in the fourth quarter within 8 points (Penn State) against the Bucks, but no team has finished within 17 points. The Buckeyes have blasted Garrett Wolfe and Northern Illinois, beaten down Texas and Iowa on the road, and survived slow starts against Penn State and Cincinnati. The only knock on the Buckeyes is that they give up quite a few yards on the ground, but like Tressel’s 2002 national title team, these Buckeyes know how to keep points off the scoreboard any way possible. Michigan State was supposed to be a trap game on the road this week, but MSU has had an earlier-than-anticipated meltdown and will have to pull it together in a hurry to keep up with the Buckeyes. It should be smooth sailing until Michigan, but the Buckeyes still remember the 1998 team which choked a sure national title at home against unranked MSU in November of that year. Don’t expect the same mistakes from this squad. I call for 12-0 and a trip to the national title game.
RUTGERS: 5-0, 1-0 Big East
The biggest surprise even over Missouri are the Scarlet Knights, who are threatening to make the Big East more than a one-game conference. Rutgers has looked fantastic at home, but both road games have been dicey (21-16 over UNC, 22-20 over USF). Rutgers, fresh off a bye week, will be truly tested by Navy and their option power offense this week. Even though Rutgers might catch a break by upsetting Louisville at home after the UL-WVU game, the December trip to Morgantown will certainly end any title hopes. Best case scenario is splitting the Big East title three ways, but I predict the run ends at Navy this week and a 9-3 finish.
USC: 5-0, 3-0 Pac-10
All of a sudden, the season-opening beatdowns of Arkansas and Nebraska seem a lot better as both those teams are leading their conference divisions. The home of Fight On, Song Girls, and the last two Heisman winners have proven tough to stop in the regular season the past three years. Two lackluster wins against the Washington state schools has most people worried, but perhaps this team will be like OSU 2002, winning lots of games ugly but still winning them all. Oregon, California, and Notre Dame will be a tough stretch of games in November, but all three come at home. I think California will win if they play like the Golden Bears have the past few weeks, but Notre Dame will be ready for revenge as well. Hard to see the Trojans losing more than one, but 11-1 seems right.
WEST VIRGINIA: 5-0, 0-0 Big East
The Mountaineers have had it all set up for a national title run since schedules were announced last year. WVU finally lived up to expectations last season, winning the league title and a BCS bowl against tough competition Georgia. This season no Virginia Tech game is in the way of the Mountaineers, and the only question is if the team can handle the pressure. I think they run the table after beating Louisville in a true tough road test, and I guess that Steve Slaton will be the key to winning every game remaining. 12-0 is in reach and should propel WVU to the BCS title game against OSU, unless Florida goes undefeated as well.
It should be very interesting to see how it all plays out this week and every week, as the games last week proved any undefeated is always beatable. Auburn was the first huge upset of the year, but the Tigers will not be alone. One-loss teams to keep an eye on as possible title contenders should all others fall include Texas, Notre Dame, and California. I would add Auburn to this list, but nobody likes a team who cannot even have a chance to win the league title, and I doubt Arkansas gives up the division. OSU and WVU are my current pick to play in Glendale, but I will not be surprised if Louisville and Michigan or some other unranked teams derail those plans.
All three of my games of the week involve huge tests for some of the undefeated teams listed above, and the first is Rutgers visiting Navy. Navy is a one-point loss away from being undefeated, and the option offense usually gives opponents fits. Both teams would love to lock up bowl eligibility, and Navy might be looking forward to the showdown with Notre Dame next week. Navy also would not want to lose two in a row, and Rutgers has played very poorly on the road thus far. This game will set speed records for finishing time, as two of the top 10 rushing teams will meet on the field (and both are in the bottom 7 in passing offense). Navy wins by 14.
The second game of note is the primetime national TV showdown pitting Michigan at Penn State. Penn State is the only team to give Ohio State a real run this year, and PSU is tough to beat in bad weather night home games (just ask OSU last year). Without superstar WR Mario Manningham, Michigan will probably struggle to move the ball if PSU stacks up against the run. The key to this game will be not making a mistake, and I think Michigan’s defense will come up with a crucial turnover late to lock up the game. Big Blue continues rolling with a 4 point victory.
The game of the week comes from the SEC again as Florida travels to Auburn. UF took over the Tigers' spot as top team in the SEC after beating LSU and AU's home loss to Arkansas. Auburn might have been looking forward to a battle of the last two conference undefeated teams this week. Florida cannot make mistakes like last week again, and Auburn will not be shocked this time around. I’ll take Auburn simply based on home field advantage and the fact that the SEC usually beats each other silly before the end of October. The curse on number two continues, and Auburn wins by 3.
GOTW 2006 Record to Date: 13-5
Last Week: 3-0
Fitzy’s Top 10 – Week 7
1. Ohio State (6-0)
2. Florida (6-0)
3. Michigan (6-0)
4. USC (5-0)
5. West Virginia (5-0)
6. Texas (5-1)
7. Louisville (5-0)
8. Tennessee (5-1)
9. California (4-1)
10. Notre Dame (5-1)
Have another fantastic week. I am in the middle of five straight weekends of going to Ohio State games. Hopefully the Spartans make it a little more interesting than Iowa and BGSU, but we will see if John L. Smith has anything left. I hope all of you get a chance to see one of the great games on tap this weekend, and we’ll see you back here next week after the BCS sullies up the college football world.
Friday, October 6, 2006
FRONTRUNNERS EMERGE AS BIG GAMES RETURN
On a cold night in Iowa City, the frontrunner for the national title proved for the third time in four weeks that they belong as the top team of college football. The home Hawkeyes had a crazy electric fan base, a night home game, an established senior leader at quarterback, and a streak of 25 out of 26 straight victories at home, including a 33-7 slaughter of the team across the field two years ago. That was not enough.
The Buckeyes are bigger, faster, and more experienced, and they deal with the big game pressure by playing its best (just ask Texas three weeks ago). Iowa decided to receive the opening kickoff for some reason, and the Buckeyes forced a three-and-out before scoring on their first possession. OSU never relinquished that lead, as Iowa only got within 4 twice in the first half. The Buckeyes further schooled Iowa on why you defer the opening kickoff by blowing a close game (14-10) open with an 89-yard touchdown drive to end the first half, followed by an 80-yard touchdown drive to start the second half (28-10). Iowa tried to mount a rally, but turnovers doomed the comeback effort and the Buckeyes waltzed back to Columbus with a 21-point victory.
This game was significant for many reasons, not the least of which is the emergence of a true national title frontrunner. At the beginning of the season, the Buckeyes were number 1 in the rankings, but many other teams shared top spot votes with OSU. Now, though, the Bucks rightfully have the vast majority of number 1 votes. The question has officially shifted from “who’s number 1?” to “who’s number 2?” Much like Miami in 2001-2002 and USC in 2004-2005, Ohio State will be the dominant force this season and will show up in the national title game barring an unexpected upset. The Buckeyes do have one big game left, but it is at home in seven weeks against rival Michigan. After a September to remember, the Buckeyes are now the team to beat.
Much like Iowa, each of the Buckeyes' opponents over the next six weeks will need to play perfect and hope the Buckeyes make mistakes to have a chance to win. Going undefeated into the showdown at the Shoe in late November is OSU’s to lose now. The Buckeyes also know - like Miami and USC (and OSU in 1995, '96, and '98) - that every team will bring their best shot now, and no game can be taken for granted. Unlike the 1998 Buckeyes who lost a sure national title at home in a shocker against unranked Michigan State, these Buckeyes have more talent and better leaders on offense, a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate quarterback, and a much better coach on the sidelines who knows how to win championships. Given Tressel’s 4-1 bowl record and 4-1 record against Michigan, perhaps the printers should start making more national champions shirts already, as we have a clear frontrunner finally in 2006.
Speaking of frontrunners, the Heisman race is still in infancy stages but finally has a couple leaders in my opinion. If the Trophy were given away for September, Northern Illinois RB Garrett Wolfe would have to be the winner. Yes he plays in the MAC and yes his team’s one-dimensional nature has hurt them so far, but as far as individual performances go, no running back has ever been better this far into a season. Considering Wolfe gained almost 300 yards of total offense against the aforementioned national title frontrunners at the Horseshoe, it is clear the MAC argument does not hold water. This guy is the real deal, and if he breaks Barry Sanders’ rushing record, he should win the Heisman.
Although Chris Leak and Chad Henne have looked good at times and Brady Quinn is on national TV every week, there are really only two challengers to the Wolfe throne for now. Adrian Peterson almost won the award two years ago and is clearly the only reason Oklahoma has a chance to beat Texas this week and go to the BCS again. The numbers just are not as good as Wolfe's though. The final candidate is OSU QB Troy Smith, and this status is cemented by being the general of one of the best offenses and currently the best team in college football. He needs to avoid the off-games in bad weather like he had against Penn State, but even in that win, he had his best highlight of the year. The only knock on Smith is he is not running enough to be a true dual threat like Vince Young and he has the best WR talent to throw to; but he did run more against Iowa. The title is Wolfe’s to lose, but Smith and Peterson will keep it close.
One other category of frontrunners to mention after September is hot seat coaches. Some coaches have already seemingly locked in their pink slips at the end of the season (or even before), and the demise of their programs has been utterly embarrassing. Topping the list is Miami’s Larry Coker. Riding the coattails and recruits of previous coaches, Coker won one national title and came within a play of a second one in 2002 against Ohio State. Since then, Miami has gone downhill to a point where they were upset late in the conference season to miss the conference title game, then got hammered worse than Miami has ever been in a bowl loss to LSU, and this season started 1-2 against unimpressive Florida State and injured Louisville. And then they barely escaped 14-13 at home against Houston this week. Coker is so fired, as Miami is a shell of the dynasty which almost emerged at the beginning of the decade.
Second on this list is John L. Smith of Michigan State. His teams have always ripped through September only to fall apart after one bad turn of events in Big Ten play the past two seasons. Last year the Spartans held a 17-7 lead at Ohio State and were kicking a field goal to go up 20-7 at the half when it was blocked and returned for a touchdown that cut the halftime lead to 3, and OSU stomped all over Michigan State in the second half. The Spartans then fell apart, losing 5 of their last 7. This year Michigan State choked an 18 point lead at home away against Notre Dame in the fourth quarter, and they followed it up with a home loss to Illinois, a team who had won 1 game in the past 3 seasons of Big Ten play. Smith was seen smacking himself after the game, and with Michigan and Ohio State the next two weeks, Smith might be fired in October if things get worse. Other coaches might be worth mentioning, but these two are in a race to see who can get the first pink slip in 2006-07.
One more note to consider after the opening month. All 119 Division I-A teams came into September with zero losses, but only 13 teams exit the month unscathed. These teams include powerhouses (Ohio State, Louisville, West Virginia, Michigan, USC, Florida, Georgia, Auburn, Boise State) as well as surprises (Wake Forest, Missouri, Rutgers, Oregon). Many of these teams still must face each other, so the likelihood of having even two undefeated teams in the BCS title game seems slim. I’m guessing this number slowly dwindles to 5 undefeated teams at the end of October.
After two weeks where the Buckeyes got to play the best game of the week (since they were the only real showdown two weeks in a row, if there were any showdowns), the real showdowns return this week for the first time since “Showdown Saturday.” Part of this occurrence comes because the four top 10 caliber teams in the SEC start playing each other regularly (or other ranked SEC teams), but more showdowns such as the Red River Shootout start popping up in October. The two teams who played the toughest September stretches (Ohio State and Notre Dame) do not have any big battles until late November, so it will be nice to focus on different teams until then. Let’s jump into this week’s best three games.
Some may argue Tennessee and Georgia should be in this slot, but I think that game will be an exposing of Georgia. And while Wake Forest is a cute 5-0 as well, call me when they beat Clemson. That leaves the Pac-10 battle for second place, Oregon at California. Oregon has survived a crazy game against Oklahoma and is thriving after removing Arizona State officially from any chance in conference play. California has recovered from a tough opening loss and also blasted Arizona State two weeks ago. These two teams have top 10 offenses according to yards and points, but they achieve greatness in different ways. Oregon has a nice balance between passing with QB Dixon and RB duo Stewart and Johnson, while California has a mediocre running game and relies a lot on QB Longshore to get the Bears down the field. Thankfully for the Bears, this game is not at Autzen Stadium, as the first to forty points might not take home this victory. I think California is slightly better battle-tested, and I’ll call for the Golden Bear running game to show up enough to control this wild contest. Cal by 7.
The Red River Shootout always seems to be very important, and this year is no different when Texas and Oklahoma meet in Dallas. The atmosphere of this rivalry is unlike most others in that the stadium is split down the middle visibly between fans in burnt orange and those in crimson. Both teams have a non-conference loss this season, so any hopes for a national title are premised on this game (and this will probably decide the Big XII South seeing how unimpressive Texas Tech and Texas A&M look). Both teams, like Cal and Oregon, are in the top 10 teams in points averaged, and that is really impressive for Texas who got shut down in a 24-7 loss to Ohio State. Both teams have inexperienced quarterbacks and great rushing attacks. Texas should not tire as they have a dual rushing attack with Jamaal Charles and Selvin Young, but fatigue never seems to slow Heisman frontrunner Adrian Peterson late in games. I think the Texas defense will be able to stack 8 guys in the box and force Oklahoma into uncomfortable passing situations, while doing the same to Texas may not be as effective (freshman Colt McCoy seems to be getting better under pressure as the weeks go on). McCoy has the better receivers and the better defense, so I’ll take Texas by 17 in a shocking blowout.
The game of the week unsurprisingly comes from the SEC, when LSU comes into Florida on Saturday evening. LSU lucks into the toughest two road games in the SEC coming early in the season, and they were unsuccessful in a 7-3 battle at Auburn. Florida barely escaped the Tennessee game and has gotten to prepare for LSU ever since. The Bayou Bengals cannot afford to lose this game if they hope to have any conference title hopes (Auburn is not likely to lose 3 to fall behind LSU), while Florida is not eager to give up their undefeated season or national title hopes. I think on the home field of the Swamp, Chris Leak will step up in the pressure situation. I do not expect Heisman numbers from Jamarcus Russell or Chris Leak against these defenses, but both will not be prone to making too many mistakes. I like Florida’s intangibles, and they win by 3.
GOTW Record To Date: 10-5
Last Week: 1-2
Fitzy’s Top 10 – Week 6
1. Ohio State (5-0)
2. Michigan (5-0)
3. USC (4-0)
4. Auburn (5-0)
5. Florida (5-0)
6. West Virginia (4-0)
7. Texas (4-1)
8. Louisville (4-0)
9. LSU (4-1)
10. Tennessee (4-1)
I’m not one to condone sports betting, but did you see Ohio State is a 44-point favorite to beat Bowling Green this week? OSU has covered the spread in all 5 games this year, but they have never beaten anyone under Tressel by more than 43 (50-7 against San Jose State) and I really have trouble thinking OSU will cover this spread. Seems like Las Vegas is just trying to make OSU not cover... But anyways, like I said, I’m not a gambler so perhaps this is not so far-fetched. Have a great weekend!
The Buckeyes are bigger, faster, and more experienced, and they deal with the big game pressure by playing its best (just ask Texas three weeks ago). Iowa decided to receive the opening kickoff for some reason, and the Buckeyes forced a three-and-out before scoring on their first possession. OSU never relinquished that lead, as Iowa only got within 4 twice in the first half. The Buckeyes further schooled Iowa on why you defer the opening kickoff by blowing a close game (14-10) open with an 89-yard touchdown drive to end the first half, followed by an 80-yard touchdown drive to start the second half (28-10). Iowa tried to mount a rally, but turnovers doomed the comeback effort and the Buckeyes waltzed back to Columbus with a 21-point victory.
This game was significant for many reasons, not the least of which is the emergence of a true national title frontrunner. At the beginning of the season, the Buckeyes were number 1 in the rankings, but many other teams shared top spot votes with OSU. Now, though, the Bucks rightfully have the vast majority of number 1 votes. The question has officially shifted from “who’s number 1?” to “who’s number 2?” Much like Miami in 2001-2002 and USC in 2004-2005, Ohio State will be the dominant force this season and will show up in the national title game barring an unexpected upset. The Buckeyes do have one big game left, but it is at home in seven weeks against rival Michigan. After a September to remember, the Buckeyes are now the team to beat.
Much like Iowa, each of the Buckeyes' opponents over the next six weeks will need to play perfect and hope the Buckeyes make mistakes to have a chance to win. Going undefeated into the showdown at the Shoe in late November is OSU’s to lose now. The Buckeyes also know - like Miami and USC (and OSU in 1995, '96, and '98) - that every team will bring their best shot now, and no game can be taken for granted. Unlike the 1998 Buckeyes who lost a sure national title at home in a shocker against unranked Michigan State, these Buckeyes have more talent and better leaders on offense, a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate quarterback, and a much better coach on the sidelines who knows how to win championships. Given Tressel’s 4-1 bowl record and 4-1 record against Michigan, perhaps the printers should start making more national champions shirts already, as we have a clear frontrunner finally in 2006.
Speaking of frontrunners, the Heisman race is still in infancy stages but finally has a couple leaders in my opinion. If the Trophy were given away for September, Northern Illinois RB Garrett Wolfe would have to be the winner. Yes he plays in the MAC and yes his team’s one-dimensional nature has hurt them so far, but as far as individual performances go, no running back has ever been better this far into a season. Considering Wolfe gained almost 300 yards of total offense against the aforementioned national title frontrunners at the Horseshoe, it is clear the MAC argument does not hold water. This guy is the real deal, and if he breaks Barry Sanders’ rushing record, he should win the Heisman.
Although Chris Leak and Chad Henne have looked good at times and Brady Quinn is on national TV every week, there are really only two challengers to the Wolfe throne for now. Adrian Peterson almost won the award two years ago and is clearly the only reason Oklahoma has a chance to beat Texas this week and go to the BCS again. The numbers just are not as good as Wolfe's though. The final candidate is OSU QB Troy Smith, and this status is cemented by being the general of one of the best offenses and currently the best team in college football. He needs to avoid the off-games in bad weather like he had against Penn State, but even in that win, he had his best highlight of the year. The only knock on Smith is he is not running enough to be a true dual threat like Vince Young and he has the best WR talent to throw to; but he did run more against Iowa. The title is Wolfe’s to lose, but Smith and Peterson will keep it close.
One other category of frontrunners to mention after September is hot seat coaches. Some coaches have already seemingly locked in their pink slips at the end of the season (or even before), and the demise of their programs has been utterly embarrassing. Topping the list is Miami’s Larry Coker. Riding the coattails and recruits of previous coaches, Coker won one national title and came within a play of a second one in 2002 against Ohio State. Since then, Miami has gone downhill to a point where they were upset late in the conference season to miss the conference title game, then got hammered worse than Miami has ever been in a bowl loss to LSU, and this season started 1-2 against unimpressive Florida State and injured Louisville. And then they barely escaped 14-13 at home against Houston this week. Coker is so fired, as Miami is a shell of the dynasty which almost emerged at the beginning of the decade.
Second on this list is John L. Smith of Michigan State. His teams have always ripped through September only to fall apart after one bad turn of events in Big Ten play the past two seasons. Last year the Spartans held a 17-7 lead at Ohio State and were kicking a field goal to go up 20-7 at the half when it was blocked and returned for a touchdown that cut the halftime lead to 3, and OSU stomped all over Michigan State in the second half. The Spartans then fell apart, losing 5 of their last 7. This year Michigan State choked an 18 point lead at home away against Notre Dame in the fourth quarter, and they followed it up with a home loss to Illinois, a team who had won 1 game in the past 3 seasons of Big Ten play. Smith was seen smacking himself after the game, and with Michigan and Ohio State the next two weeks, Smith might be fired in October if things get worse. Other coaches might be worth mentioning, but these two are in a race to see who can get the first pink slip in 2006-07.
One more note to consider after the opening month. All 119 Division I-A teams came into September with zero losses, but only 13 teams exit the month unscathed. These teams include powerhouses (Ohio State, Louisville, West Virginia, Michigan, USC, Florida, Georgia, Auburn, Boise State) as well as surprises (Wake Forest, Missouri, Rutgers, Oregon). Many of these teams still must face each other, so the likelihood of having even two undefeated teams in the BCS title game seems slim. I’m guessing this number slowly dwindles to 5 undefeated teams at the end of October.
After two weeks where the Buckeyes got to play the best game of the week (since they were the only real showdown two weeks in a row, if there were any showdowns), the real showdowns return this week for the first time since “Showdown Saturday.” Part of this occurrence comes because the four top 10 caliber teams in the SEC start playing each other regularly (or other ranked SEC teams), but more showdowns such as the Red River Shootout start popping up in October. The two teams who played the toughest September stretches (Ohio State and Notre Dame) do not have any big battles until late November, so it will be nice to focus on different teams until then. Let’s jump into this week’s best three games.
Some may argue Tennessee and Georgia should be in this slot, but I think that game will be an exposing of Georgia. And while Wake Forest is a cute 5-0 as well, call me when they beat Clemson. That leaves the Pac-10 battle for second place, Oregon at California. Oregon has survived a crazy game against Oklahoma and is thriving after removing Arizona State officially from any chance in conference play. California has recovered from a tough opening loss and also blasted Arizona State two weeks ago. These two teams have top 10 offenses according to yards and points, but they achieve greatness in different ways. Oregon has a nice balance between passing with QB Dixon and RB duo Stewart and Johnson, while California has a mediocre running game and relies a lot on QB Longshore to get the Bears down the field. Thankfully for the Bears, this game is not at Autzen Stadium, as the first to forty points might not take home this victory. I think California is slightly better battle-tested, and I’ll call for the Golden Bear running game to show up enough to control this wild contest. Cal by 7.
The Red River Shootout always seems to be very important, and this year is no different when Texas and Oklahoma meet in Dallas. The atmosphere of this rivalry is unlike most others in that the stadium is split down the middle visibly between fans in burnt orange and those in crimson. Both teams have a non-conference loss this season, so any hopes for a national title are premised on this game (and this will probably decide the Big XII South seeing how unimpressive Texas Tech and Texas A&M look). Both teams, like Cal and Oregon, are in the top 10 teams in points averaged, and that is really impressive for Texas who got shut down in a 24-7 loss to Ohio State. Both teams have inexperienced quarterbacks and great rushing attacks. Texas should not tire as they have a dual rushing attack with Jamaal Charles and Selvin Young, but fatigue never seems to slow Heisman frontrunner Adrian Peterson late in games. I think the Texas defense will be able to stack 8 guys in the box and force Oklahoma into uncomfortable passing situations, while doing the same to Texas may not be as effective (freshman Colt McCoy seems to be getting better under pressure as the weeks go on). McCoy has the better receivers and the better defense, so I’ll take Texas by 17 in a shocking blowout.
The game of the week unsurprisingly comes from the SEC, when LSU comes into Florida on Saturday evening. LSU lucks into the toughest two road games in the SEC coming early in the season, and they were unsuccessful in a 7-3 battle at Auburn. Florida barely escaped the Tennessee game and has gotten to prepare for LSU ever since. The Bayou Bengals cannot afford to lose this game if they hope to have any conference title hopes (Auburn is not likely to lose 3 to fall behind LSU), while Florida is not eager to give up their undefeated season or national title hopes. I think on the home field of the Swamp, Chris Leak will step up in the pressure situation. I do not expect Heisman numbers from Jamarcus Russell or Chris Leak against these defenses, but both will not be prone to making too many mistakes. I like Florida’s intangibles, and they win by 3.
GOTW Record To Date: 10-5
Last Week: 1-2
Fitzy’s Top 10 – Week 6
1. Ohio State (5-0)
2. Michigan (5-0)
3. USC (4-0)
4. Auburn (5-0)
5. Florida (5-0)
6. West Virginia (4-0)
7. Texas (4-1)
8. Louisville (4-0)
9. LSU (4-1)
10. Tennessee (4-1)
I’m not one to condone sports betting, but did you see Ohio State is a 44-point favorite to beat Bowling Green this week? OSU has covered the spread in all 5 games this year, but they have never beaten anyone under Tressel by more than 43 (50-7 against San Jose State) and I really have trouble thinking OSU will cover this spread. Seems like Las Vegas is just trying to make OSU not cover... But anyways, like I said, I’m not a gambler so perhaps this is not so far-fetched. Have a great weekend!
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