Although not received well critically, the latest installment of the movie Saw came out this weekend just in time for Halloween. While it may not be everybody’s cup of tea, my group of friends always goes to these, so on Monday night we jumped into the new mix of Jigsaw tests designed to help people cure themselves. I thought the Saw series was a great trilogy, but did not believe as I watched the movie that Saw IV (or the already-planned Saw V-VI) should have been made. Then all of a sudden the ending of the movie adds a nice tie-in and twist from Saw III, and the entire continuation of the story is plausible. The ending indeed finally paid off, and it made going to the movie worth it. At this point you are asking, so how does this tie in with college football at all? October comes to an end and now teams face the final month of the season, and a chance to make an ending that will pay off for all the months of preparation and hard work. Also, a new candidate for greatest play in college football history showed up this past weekend which makes the efforts of many over the past few seasons worth watching.
Covering the last point first, hopefully none of my readers missed the highlight shows this weekend because you missed the Division III Trinity-Millsaps game ending. For decades teams have been drawing up super-lateral plays trying to find a way to score on the last play of regulation when the end zone is too far away to throw a Hail Mary into. Unfortunately the success rate of these plays is much worse than the success rate of attempted onside kicks, which is to say touchdowns almost never result from lateral-crazy plays. On one Saturday when Division I turned out a little more bland than usual due to a lack of upsets, the timing was perfect for this kind of ending.
Here’s the synopsis for those who missed it: Trinity ran a quick curl pass play and began laterals all across the middle of the field. Even an offensive lineman got into the mix twice, but he was wise enough to pass the ball quickly to a skill player. Over the course of 15 laterals and 1:02 of real time, the Trinity players wore out the Millsap defenders to the point where they quit on the play when the final lateral bounced off the ground to the Trinity player who eventually ran it into the end zone. Perhaps the most amazing thing about this longest play ever is the fact that not a single flag was thrown for a rules infraction. Many lateral plays end up successful but fail because some offensive lineman does not know what to do with the ball or one illegal block or hold happens in the craziness. That just did not happen for over an entire minute! Some teams have trouble blocking within the rules if a play extends beyond five seconds, let alone more than ten times that.
Of course some will debate that the Cal-Stanford game from the 1980’s with a similar amazing ending is the best college football play of all time. Unfortunately, the Holy Trinity play was the exact same kind of play and twice as nice. There were 15 laterals for Trinity and 1:02 of time spent, whereas Cal had one-third of the laterals (5) and less than half the elapsed time (0:27). The typical sure-fire ways to fail in executing a lateral play (passing to an offensive lineman, bouncing a lateral off the ground) did not stop the Trinity play. Twenty-five years after the vintage lateral play, the dream is affirmed and the crazy lateral play will continue to happen at the end of most games. This is a good thing, as this is one of the most exciting plays in college football. The only thing missing was the band on the field, but that aspect of Cal-Stanford will keep that play as a top one for many more decades.
Moving back to Division I-A, the stretch run is finally upon us. While certain games in November looked big back at the beginning of the season or even a month ago, a rash of upsets in October leaves some games irrelevant and others much bigger than expected. The list of undefeated teams has been trimmed to five, none of which were in the Preseason Top 10. Ohio State and Boston College hold their destiny in their own hands for now, but Kansas and Arizona State could certainly enter the mix by winning out against tough schedules. Hawaii will simply be happy to break into the BCS bowl picture with a 12-0 record, but Fresno State and Boise State remain on the schedule and may be too much for the Warriors. The great thing about this set of teams (beyond each of them being completely unexpected) is that the meat of the conference schedule for all of them comes here in November.
Amazingly, the group of one-loss teams has been shrinking faster than usual this season also. The group currently stands at seven, including Missouri, Oklahoma, Connecticut, West Virginia, Oregon, LSU, and Boise State. That’s it. The way the November schedule is shaping up, another rash of upsets could provide something so strange as a two-loss team in the BCS Championship. Of course in the season of the unexpected, we should probably expect a perfect BCS scenario where all BCS teams end up with two losses except for two teams who end up undefeated. There could be no way the BCS could get that scenario wrong, and the result would likely be better than having a playoff involving a bunch of undeserving two-loss teams.
For the end to pay off as in Holy Trinity or in Saw IV, November needs to bring us more than the normal level of drama. It would be nice if this season brings a national championship game with two non-traditional teams such as Kansas and Oregon. It seems likely that at least one Cinderella will join the dance this year, as the only traditional powers left in contention are Ohio State, LSU, Oklahoma, and to a lesser extent West Virginia. No matter how November plays out, let’s hope the ending is worth the wait.
Races to keep an eye on: first, the Heisman race couldn’t be more different than last year when Troy Smith had it wrapped up in October. Oregon QB Dennis Dixon and Boston College QB Matt Ryan are the frontrunners at this point, but perhaps this is the year when a player on a team with two or more losses wins the Heisman (Florida QB Tim Tebow and Arkansas RB Darren McFadden certainly hope so). The SEC likely comes down to the LSU-Alabama game this weekend and the Big Ten will be determined as usual in OSU-Michigan, but other conference races still have plenty of drama. The Pac-10 will get a frontrunner this week from Oregon-Arizona State, but UCLA plays well against better competition and USC cannot be counted out yet. The Big East looks like a race between West Virginia and Connecticut, but every other team in the conference is still in the race with only two losses. Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri make for a great finish in the Big XII, while Virginia, Virginia Tech, Boston College, and Wake Forest are making the ACC race interesting. There’s plenty to watch as the season winds down.
The first game of the week is a little off the radar, but shapes up to be an elimination game in the ACC as Wake Forest visits Virginia. Each of these teams trails the division favorite on opposite halves of the ACC, but both could end up winning their divisions by running though November unscathed. The Demon Deacons began defense of their 2006 ACC title poorly with devastating losses to BC and Nebraska, but a 6-0 run since then has them back in the race. QB Riley Skinner leads the Wake Forest attack, but the real key to their success has been the “bend-but-not-break” defense. Virginia has been the definition of clutch this season, winning many games within a touchdown. Look for Cavalier RB Cedric Peerman to test the talented linebacker corps across the field all afternoon. Wake Forest is on some kind of roll right now, but the key will be knocking Virginia out early. If the Cavaliers keep this game close, the home crowd advantage and experience of many close games will knock Wake Forest out of ACC contention. That will not happen, as Wake Forest rolls at a 17 point road statement victory.
The second game of the week is a battle for the SEC West, LSU at Alabama. The Saban Bowl is certainly a hot ticket for multiple reasons, but the foremost is that this is the final tough test for LSU before the SEC title game. The winner moves one game away from clinching the West Division and the right to play for the BCS. This game features a difference in styles as Alabama passes the ball very well while LSU runs the ball very well. LSU also has a great championship-caliber defense, which has been exposed by great quarterbacks like Andre Woodson of Kentucky. If there’s any coach which can stop the LSU freight train, it’s Nick Saban in a hostile road environment. Tigers QB Matt Flynn will hopefully be healthy and ready to lead LSU to a road victory, but the key to victory will be establishing RB Jacob Hester and wearing down the Tide defense. This game stays closer than many expect, but Alabama makes a critical mistake and hands LSU a ticket to the SEC Championship, LSU by 3.
The top game of the week is Arizona State at Oregon. There’s nothing like a Pac-10 showdown if you like high scoring affairs, and this game will not disappoint. Arizona State has a potent offense, gaining over 450 yards per game, and it all runs through QB Rudy Carpenter. Carpenter has turned his college career around after transferring, and the Sun Devils might have what it takes to run with the Ducks. For all the ASU offensive accolades, Oregon just does it better. QB Dennis Dixon is a dual-threat deserving attention at all times, while RB Jonathan Stewart already has over 1000 yards this season to go with 9 TD. Oregon rushes for 280 yards per game, and Arizona State will have trouble keeping their defense off the field against this offense. The Ducks always play better in Autzen as well, and this game will be no different. Arizona State never comes out of the gate to play a good first half, but a 2-3 touchdown deficit will be too much to overcome if it happens in this game. Oregon holds on in the second half for a 10 point victory.
GOTW Record to Date: 16-14 (.533)
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 – Week 9
1. Ohio State (9-0)
2. Arizona State (8-0)
3. Boston College (8-0)
4. Kansas (8-0)
5. Oregon (7-1)
6. LSU (7-1)
7. Oklahoma (7-1)
8. West Virginia (7-1)
9. Hawaii (8-0)
10. Missouri (7-1)
Just Missed: Georgia, Michigan, Alabama, Boise State, Texas
Have a fantastic week! After visiting Penn State last weekend, I have to applaud their fans for being pretty classy and their stadium for being very impressive. There are many wonderful places to watch college football, but the noise in Michigan Stadium, Ohio Stadium, and Beaver Stadium is the best I’ve seen. See you next week!
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
SEC: The Real Deal or Just Mediocre?
Close behind the BCS debate and related to that, the endless debate about which conference is the best in Division I college football is a great topic of discussion around our sport. The problem with the debate is that nobody really knows who is best until out-of-conference play and bowl games, which is a very small sample size to determine such things. As if the sample size were not problem enough, the conferences shift in quality over time and things like the Big East going from worst BCS conference to top 2 conferences can happen in a couple short years. Nevertheless, the debate has merit this year as parity rears its ugly head across all conferences. The only way poll voters know which two teams to put in the BCS Championship is by comparing schedules and therefore comparing conferences. The question at hand is whether the SEC is really the best conference in football or just a mire of mediocrity?
The first indicator of conference strength is the previous season’s bowl record. Usually a lot of new players get a chance with over a month’s preparation to get into these games and begin fighting the battle for the next season. Of the BCS conferences in 2006-07, the far and away best performance was the Big East, which went 5-0 including 1-0 in BCS games. The SEC comes in next at 6-3, with a 2-0 record in BCS games including the national title. The Pac-10 compiled a 3-3 overall record and a 1-0 BCS record. The ACC surprisingly came in fourth, with a 4-4 overall record and an 0-1 BCS mark. The Big XII struggled quite a bit, but avoided last place with a 3-5 record, 0-1 in the BCS. Bringing up the rear was the Big Ten, which was likely hurt by both its good teams going to the highest BCS battles, but finished 2-5 overall and 0-2 in those BCS games.
This explains why going into the 2007 season, most experts continue to have the SEC alongside the Big East as the best conferences in college football. While a bowl season can be a good indicator of future talent, many good teams must reload and lose a lot of talent. Perhaps a better indicator of the best conference should come from the limited evidence we receive in out-of-conference play.
Here’s how the 2007 out-of-conference records to date shape up:
1. Big Ten (32-8 overall, 9-4 vs. BCS)
2. SEC (30-6 overall, 5-5 vs. BCS)
3. Big XII (36-11 overall, 5-6 vs. BCS)
4. Pac-10 (21-8 overall, 6-4 vs. BCS)
5. ACC (31-12 overall, 9-9 vs. BCS)
6. Big East (28-11 overall, 7-8 vs. BCS)
These reports conflict significantly from the bowl season results. The bowl results created three tiers of conferences, with tier 1 including Big East and SEC, tier 2 being ACC and Pac-10, and tier 3 having the Big XII and Big Ten. When looking at the out-of-conference this season, the results and tiers of teams change. Now the Big Ten is the top tier, while the SEC and Big XII create a second tier, and the Pac-10, ACC, and Big East are a very close third tier. Putting that all together into one more manageable listing, the conferences from strongest to weakest are: (1) SEC, (2) Big Ten, (3) Big East, (4) Big XII, (5) Pac-10, and (6) ACC. The Big Ten and Big East are interchangeable and the bottom three teams are also too close to call. By all statistical measures, the SEC is indeed the toughest conference in college football.
Despite these calculations, it still seems wrong to assume that any one-loss SEC team is better than any other one-loss team. Yet that is the perception, and the only good news for other conferences is that the SEC is beating on each other a lot this season. Only LSU has fewer than two losses already, and they should arguably have a second loss also. No matter what your favorite team or conference is, it doesn’t make sense how the SEC is praised for beating up on each other while other conferences are called mediocre and weak for the same thing. The mystique of the SEC just does not add up, as those teams lose just as many bowl games and out-of-conference games as any other major conference. They do have a nice number of good programs that usually get bowl-eligible, but the dregs of the league are as bad or worse than those in other conferences (Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Mississippi). Every conference is the same in my view, and any bad team in any BCS conference can beat the best teams because you just know how to beat a team better when you play them every year.
This goes back to my point from three weeks ago, that going undefeated in a BCS conference (and to a lesser extent, non-BCS conferences) is harder than anything else, no matter who you play. Therefore I vote Hawaii and Kansas over LSU currently. While LSU may be able to beat those teams on a neutral field, there’s no debating that winning teams such as Boise State in 2006 can get the job done against seemingly insurmountable odds. If there’s anything this season has taught us, it is that nobody can take a game for granted. If LSU takes care of running the table, they will almost certainly be in the championship against the last remaining undefeated team or another one-loss club. Also note that the SEC conference schedule is heavily weighted in October, while all these other conferences and contenders get their tougher battles more in November. It will all wash out in the end, but that’s where I stand now. The SEC is the best conference in America, but not by as much as experts say (and the Big Ten is not awful at all).
Moving on to the games of the week, it is tough to leave out the West Virginia at Rutgers game, but I must. The winner of that game becomes the favorite for the conference crown, and the Mountaineers could stay in the BCS Championship hunt with a tough road victory. Nevertheless, the first game of the week is USC at Oregon. Now the Trojans finally get some tough road games this season, and this game becomes an elimination game as far as the Pac-10 title and BCS title scene go. Both teams have been touched by injury, most notably Oregon RB Jeremiah Johnson and USC QB John David Booty. Oregon has been unstoppable so far this season with dual threat QB Dennis Dixon leading the way. The Trojan defense is a strong unit overall though, and should be able to limit Dixon’s efficiency as long as the defensive line keeps Dixon in a pocket. Trojan QB Mark Sanchez has looked good so far, but he will be under more pressure than usual in Autzen Stadium. With the wildfires in southern California as another distraction this week and the poor play against the most awful teams in the Pac-10, it seems that this road game is too much for USC. Expect a close game, but Oregon pulls it out in the fourth quarter by 10.
The other two games of the week are the first true tough road tests for the top two teams in the country. On Thursday night, Boston College returns to ACC play after four straight weeks of non-conference play with a 7-0 record. Unfortunately for the Eagles, the destination is Blacksburg, VA, and the Virginia Tech Hokies will be more than ready. The Hokies have been playing on emotion all season and have rolled to a 6-1 record, the only blemish being an absolute mauling by LSU in Louisiana. Boston College creates even more problems for the Hokie defense, with QB Matt Ryan putting up ridiculously good numbers while RB Andre Callender has given defenses something else to worry about. Boston College’s defense is the best in the nation against the running game, and Virginia Tech has struggled thus far to establish a running game. This could be very problematic for the rotating Hokie quarterbacks Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor. Magical things just happen in Blacksburg, and one or two special teams breaks could make this one interesting. Boston College continues the bad luck of #2 teams in the country, falling in this one by 3.
The top game of the week is the Saturday night showdown, Ohio State at Penn State. The Buckeyes have thoroughly dominated every opponent this season, and it all comes from one of the two best defensive units in the country (tied with LSU). Still, the pressure of being number 1 and one minute of offensive meltdown (2 turnovers returned for TD and almost a third when a fumble recovery flubbed by 3 Spartans) last week against Michigan State are worrisome. Also Happy Valley is the one place in the Big Ten where wins are hard to come by for the Bucks, going 1-4 in their last 5 battles there. Each team has very similar offensive threats and statistics, but the Buckeye defense is a lot better than the Nittany Lions have seen. Still, this game looks like another cold night in Happy Valley, and another low scoring game should ensue. Penn State just finds a way to win those games, so I think both top undefeated teams go down this weekend. Nittany Lions win by 2.
GOTW Record to Date: 15-12 (.556)
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 – Week 8
1. Ohio State (8-0)
2. Boston College (7-0)
3. Kansas (7-0)
4. Arizona State (7-0)
5. Hawaii (7-0)
6. LSU (7-1)
7. Oregon (6-1)
8. Oklahoma (7-1)
9. Virginia Tech (6-1)
10. West Virginia (6-1)
Just Missed: Florida, Missouri, South Florida, USC, Virginia
Have a fantastic week. Look for me on TV at the OSU-PSU game! I’ll be the guy not in white. Let me know if there are any topics you want me to cover in the next couple weeks, before we move our attention to conference races winding down and BCS projections.
The first indicator of conference strength is the previous season’s bowl record. Usually a lot of new players get a chance with over a month’s preparation to get into these games and begin fighting the battle for the next season. Of the BCS conferences in 2006-07, the far and away best performance was the Big East, which went 5-0 including 1-0 in BCS games. The SEC comes in next at 6-3, with a 2-0 record in BCS games including the national title. The Pac-10 compiled a 3-3 overall record and a 1-0 BCS record. The ACC surprisingly came in fourth, with a 4-4 overall record and an 0-1 BCS mark. The Big XII struggled quite a bit, but avoided last place with a 3-5 record, 0-1 in the BCS. Bringing up the rear was the Big Ten, which was likely hurt by both its good teams going to the highest BCS battles, but finished 2-5 overall and 0-2 in those BCS games.
This explains why going into the 2007 season, most experts continue to have the SEC alongside the Big East as the best conferences in college football. While a bowl season can be a good indicator of future talent, many good teams must reload and lose a lot of talent. Perhaps a better indicator of the best conference should come from the limited evidence we receive in out-of-conference play.
Here’s how the 2007 out-of-conference records to date shape up:
1. Big Ten (32-8 overall, 9-4 vs. BCS)
2. SEC (30-6 overall, 5-5 vs. BCS)
3. Big XII (36-11 overall, 5-6 vs. BCS)
4. Pac-10 (21-8 overall, 6-4 vs. BCS)
5. ACC (31-12 overall, 9-9 vs. BCS)
6. Big East (28-11 overall, 7-8 vs. BCS)
These reports conflict significantly from the bowl season results. The bowl results created three tiers of conferences, with tier 1 including Big East and SEC, tier 2 being ACC and Pac-10, and tier 3 having the Big XII and Big Ten. When looking at the out-of-conference this season, the results and tiers of teams change. Now the Big Ten is the top tier, while the SEC and Big XII create a second tier, and the Pac-10, ACC, and Big East are a very close third tier. Putting that all together into one more manageable listing, the conferences from strongest to weakest are: (1) SEC, (2) Big Ten, (3) Big East, (4) Big XII, (5) Pac-10, and (6) ACC. The Big Ten and Big East are interchangeable and the bottom three teams are also too close to call. By all statistical measures, the SEC is indeed the toughest conference in college football.
Despite these calculations, it still seems wrong to assume that any one-loss SEC team is better than any other one-loss team. Yet that is the perception, and the only good news for other conferences is that the SEC is beating on each other a lot this season. Only LSU has fewer than two losses already, and they should arguably have a second loss also. No matter what your favorite team or conference is, it doesn’t make sense how the SEC is praised for beating up on each other while other conferences are called mediocre and weak for the same thing. The mystique of the SEC just does not add up, as those teams lose just as many bowl games and out-of-conference games as any other major conference. They do have a nice number of good programs that usually get bowl-eligible, but the dregs of the league are as bad or worse than those in other conferences (Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Mississippi). Every conference is the same in my view, and any bad team in any BCS conference can beat the best teams because you just know how to beat a team better when you play them every year.
This goes back to my point from three weeks ago, that going undefeated in a BCS conference (and to a lesser extent, non-BCS conferences) is harder than anything else, no matter who you play. Therefore I vote Hawaii and Kansas over LSU currently. While LSU may be able to beat those teams on a neutral field, there’s no debating that winning teams such as Boise State in 2006 can get the job done against seemingly insurmountable odds. If there’s anything this season has taught us, it is that nobody can take a game for granted. If LSU takes care of running the table, they will almost certainly be in the championship against the last remaining undefeated team or another one-loss club. Also note that the SEC conference schedule is heavily weighted in October, while all these other conferences and contenders get their tougher battles more in November. It will all wash out in the end, but that’s where I stand now. The SEC is the best conference in America, but not by as much as experts say (and the Big Ten is not awful at all).
Moving on to the games of the week, it is tough to leave out the West Virginia at Rutgers game, but I must. The winner of that game becomes the favorite for the conference crown, and the Mountaineers could stay in the BCS Championship hunt with a tough road victory. Nevertheless, the first game of the week is USC at Oregon. Now the Trojans finally get some tough road games this season, and this game becomes an elimination game as far as the Pac-10 title and BCS title scene go. Both teams have been touched by injury, most notably Oregon RB Jeremiah Johnson and USC QB John David Booty. Oregon has been unstoppable so far this season with dual threat QB Dennis Dixon leading the way. The Trojan defense is a strong unit overall though, and should be able to limit Dixon’s efficiency as long as the defensive line keeps Dixon in a pocket. Trojan QB Mark Sanchez has looked good so far, but he will be under more pressure than usual in Autzen Stadium. With the wildfires in southern California as another distraction this week and the poor play against the most awful teams in the Pac-10, it seems that this road game is too much for USC. Expect a close game, but Oregon pulls it out in the fourth quarter by 10.
The other two games of the week are the first true tough road tests for the top two teams in the country. On Thursday night, Boston College returns to ACC play after four straight weeks of non-conference play with a 7-0 record. Unfortunately for the Eagles, the destination is Blacksburg, VA, and the Virginia Tech Hokies will be more than ready. The Hokies have been playing on emotion all season and have rolled to a 6-1 record, the only blemish being an absolute mauling by LSU in Louisiana. Boston College creates even more problems for the Hokie defense, with QB Matt Ryan putting up ridiculously good numbers while RB Andre Callender has given defenses something else to worry about. Boston College’s defense is the best in the nation against the running game, and Virginia Tech has struggled thus far to establish a running game. This could be very problematic for the rotating Hokie quarterbacks Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor. Magical things just happen in Blacksburg, and one or two special teams breaks could make this one interesting. Boston College continues the bad luck of #2 teams in the country, falling in this one by 3.
The top game of the week is the Saturday night showdown, Ohio State at Penn State. The Buckeyes have thoroughly dominated every opponent this season, and it all comes from one of the two best defensive units in the country (tied with LSU). Still, the pressure of being number 1 and one minute of offensive meltdown (2 turnovers returned for TD and almost a third when a fumble recovery flubbed by 3 Spartans) last week against Michigan State are worrisome. Also Happy Valley is the one place in the Big Ten where wins are hard to come by for the Bucks, going 1-4 in their last 5 battles there. Each team has very similar offensive threats and statistics, but the Buckeye defense is a lot better than the Nittany Lions have seen. Still, this game looks like another cold night in Happy Valley, and another low scoring game should ensue. Penn State just finds a way to win those games, so I think both top undefeated teams go down this weekend. Nittany Lions win by 2.
GOTW Record to Date: 15-12 (.556)
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 – Week 8
1. Ohio State (8-0)
2. Boston College (7-0)
3. Kansas (7-0)
4. Arizona State (7-0)
5. Hawaii (7-0)
6. LSU (7-1)
7. Oregon (6-1)
8. Oklahoma (7-1)
9. Virginia Tech (6-1)
10. West Virginia (6-1)
Just Missed: Florida, Missouri, South Florida, USC, Virginia
Have a fantastic week. Look for me on TV at the OSU-PSU game! I’ll be the guy not in white. Let me know if there are any topics you want me to cover in the next couple weeks, before we move our attention to conference races winding down and BCS projections.
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Marshall and USF: A Tale of Two Programs
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times... The year 1997 brought two very interesting developments in college football. The Marshall Thundering Herd football team moved back into Division I-A after being kicked out of the MAC and suffering a devastating plane crash 30 years previous. A little farther down the east side of the country, the South Florida Bulls started a football team for the first time in school history. Both of these teams would make unexpected leaps and bounds, and the future looked so bright for both programs.
Marshall turned it around in 1984 and had winning seasons for the next 21 years. Two national titles in I-AA in 1992 and 1996 pushed the university back into I-A in 1997. Marshall jumped back into the MAC that had kicked them out, and continued the high level of success they had enjoyed in I-AA. League championships rained into Huntington, WV in 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2002. In 1999 Marshall went undefeated and ended the season in the Top 10 in the country. Marshall quickly became the flag bearer for all non-BCS schools, trying to bust the BCS and the national title picture. It appeared that Marshall would become an elite I-A program.
Meanwhile in Tampa, South Florida found a way in program infancy to be successful and moved into Raymond James Stadium, the home of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers just one year later in 1998. South Florida found enough success to follow Marshall into Division I-A in 2001, only four years after their beginning. The Bulls started as an independent team for the first two years of I-A play, but still found a small modicum of success. Finally in 2003, the Bulls joined the new Conference USA and had a home.
Marshall head coach Bob Pruett proved how great a recruiter he could be right as Marshall jumped into I-A. All those MAC titles were won on the backs of future pro superstars such as QB Chad Pennington, WR Randy Moss, and QB Byron Leftwich. The rapid national prominence and success led Marshall to think about leaving the conference it was dominating for higher ground. The ACC raid on the Big East and the subsequent fallout led to openings in Conference USA, one of which was snapped up by Marshall. A new coach, Mark Snyder, and 8 nationally televised games in 2005 had the fans excited for more, perhaps even truly busting into the BCS.
Meanwhile in Tampa, coach Jim Leavitt did not recruit the flashiest pro prospects, but somehow found a way to continue getting solid classes of recruits in the hotbed that is Florida. Only two years after joining Conference USA, the aforementioned ACC-Big East fallout opened three spots in a BCS conference for non-BCS teams. Surprisingly, the Big East pulled the Bulls out of C-USA alongside more established members Cincinnati and Louisville. Only two seasons removed from I-A independence and four from I-AA, South Florida was viewed as a primary reason the Big East Conference should lose their BCS status. The future looked tough for the Bulls competing against much more established programs.
Unfortunately, 2005 was a turning point for both these up-and-coming programs, at least if you ask Marshall. The Thundering Herd withered in the national spotlight and struggled to 4-7 and 5-6 finishes in 2005 and 2006. This season has been even worse, as the Thundering Herd are 0-6 with embarrassing losses to rival West Virginia and New Hampshire. Fans are calling for coach Snyder’s head already and Marshall is suddenly at the bottom of Division I-A, one of only three teams currently winless out of 120. It is truly the worst of times in Huntington, to paraphrase Dickens.
South Florida maintained the course and found continued success in their 2005 debut in the Big East, including knocking off the heavy league favorite Louisville. The 2006 season continued the surprises as the Bulls knocked off a seemingly BCS-bound West Virginia team in Morgantown. These two seasons signaled that the Bulls were not only worthy of a BCS conference, but may even be a frontrunner. All the determination and hard work of the players and coach Leavitt have paid off in 2007. USF broke into the Top 25 rankings quicker than any other team after jumping into I-A other than Boise State. The Bulls upset Auburn and West Virginia, running out to a 6-0 start. The Bulls have upset the league favorite every year since joining the Big East, and now remain as one of only six undefeated teams in 2007. All the favorites losing in the crazy 2007 season helped South Florida reach #2 in the first BCS standings released this week, only following last season’s championship contender Ohio State. It is indeed the best of times down in Tampa.
At the beginning of 2005, it appeared that Marshall was preparing to break into the BCS and USF had bitten off too hard a challenge. Ten years after Marshall made the move to I-A and USF came into existence, these two up-and-comers could not be more different in 2007. Marshall struggled and has had to watch Boise State steal all their thunder, breaking into the BCS in 2006 and completing the only undefeated season in college football last year with a win over Oklahoma. South Florida continues to get better and better, and is in the driver’s seat for a BCS berth and national championship thanks to the crazy season. This begs the question: how did this divergence happen? How did these two programs on the fast track end up on opposite ends of Division I-A, creating a Dickens-like situation in 2007?
The key is clearly coaching and the size of the communities behind these programs. Bob Pruett might have been a great recruiter, but he moved on and the coaching staffs behind him lack the genius necessary to encourage prized-recruits to come to West Virginia. That state does not have very many good players that are not snatched up by WVU, and neighboring Ohio is a battlefield for bigger schools in the Big Ten. Coaching uncertainty and problems recruiting will only continue to lead this once-proud program into the bottom tier of Division I-A.
There are some coaching trees of high fame and caliber such as the Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick pro/college tree, but Jim Leavitt for USF also comes from another of these groups. Leavitt worked with Bob and Mike Stoops under Hayden Fry, the legendary coach who turned around programs at North Texas State and Iowa. Leavitt learned at an early coaching age how to build a program from the inside out, winning at every level. USF also has an easy time selling Tampa to the local hotbed of recruits in Florida and elsewhere, despite the lack of facilities in the past or program history. USF has been consistently in the top 10 for student enrollment, so the campus is a lively and booming place to be as well. Playing in a top quality NFL stadium in front of a national BCS audience cannot hurt either.
Consequently, ten years after both programs made big leaps in the college football world, each is headed in opposite directions. Marshall hopefully will be able to regain some of the magic of the past few years, but USF could be the real deal on the national stage, a great story for a large campus of fans and one outstanding coach. Even if the boys from Tampa lose a couple games and miss out on the BCS this year, nobody should doubt that Jim Leavitt will continue to improve this program to the point where Top 10 rankings are no longer out of the ordinary. USF and Marshall ... The Tale of Two Programs will continue as crazy 2007 winds down to a frantic finish.
October seems loaded with great games every week, and this is no exception as many top teams get tough road tests. Games such as Michigan at Illinois and Kansas at Colorado will test the mettle of ranked teams, while classic battles such as USC at Notre Dame and Miami at Florida State still have plenty of emotion on the line. The game that just misses the cut this week is Texas Tech at Missouri. The Tigers need to recover quickly from an Oklahoma beatdown while Tech seems to have a legitimate defense for the first time in decades. The winner of this game stays in the hunt for the BCS, while the loser is probably running out of time. Still, that game falls a little short of the Top 3 Games of the Week.
The first game of the week is a Thursday evening showdown between BCS frontrunner South Florida and Rutgers. Last season’s feel good surprise from the Big East will try to right the ship after two straight home losses in front of record Piscataway crowds against Maryland and Cincinnati. Rutgers could grab the conference lead with homes games this week against the Bulls and next week against WVU, but USF is playing to stay in the national title picture. Both teams are coming off a short week, but Rutgers should be fine behind the leadership of QB Mike Teel and Heisman candidate RB Ray Rice. League rookie of the year in 2006, Bulls QB Matt Grothe is a threat on his feet as well as in the passing game. Despite these playmakers, these two teams boast by far the best defensive units in the conference. Expect a low scoring game where a turnover could make all the difference. The poor luck of top ranked teams continues in this one, as Rutgers will win by 4.
The second and third games of the week come from the SEC, and these might as well be Divisional Championship games in October. The second game of the week matches Auburn and LSU in the SEC West. Both teams share the division lead at 3-1 with Alabama, but these two teams appear to be better than the Crimson Tide at this halfway point in the conference season. Both teams have great defenses and know how to win close games against tough competition (they each beat Florida back-to-back in tight games), but the Bayou Bengals have a much better offense. LSU QB Matt Flynn has struggled a bit this season, but RB Jacob Hester has helped keep the offense driving with a top 10 rushing attack. Auburn QB Brandon Cox has thrown 7 interceptions to go with 4 touchdowns this season, and the problems will only get worse on the road against a blitzing defense. LSU is looking for someone to beat on after losing at Kentucky and knows the BCS championship is still on the line, so expect LSU to solidify the path to the SEC Title game with a 17 point win.
The top game of the week is Florida at Kentucky, a battle for controlling destiny in the SEC East race. Kentucky needs another loss by South Carolina to gain control of the division, but a loss for either team all but knocks them out of SEC title contention. Both the Gators and Wildcats have potent offensive units. Florida goes as QB Tim Tebow goes, and he will use his legs and powerful arm to carry the Gators in all games this season. Gator WR Percy Harvin has been Tebow’s favorite target. Kentucky counters with Heisman hopeful QB Andre’ Woodson, whose 21 TD and 4 INT is impressive to go along with a win against top-ranked LSU. Kentucky will be without leading rusher Rafael Little again this week, but that did not slow them last week as RB Derrick Locke and RB Tony Dixon split the workload. Florida has fallen from the BCS Championship days with two straight losses to Auburn and LSU, followed by a bye week last week which has been emotionally trying with the death of DB Michael Guilford in a motorcycle accident. The Gators are favored to continue the dominance over Kentucky, but the Wildcats have been in enough close games to defend the home turf in this one. Florida loses a shocking third straight game, Kentucky by 3.
GOTW Record to Date: 13-11 (.542)
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 – Week 7
1. Ohio State (7-0)
2. Boston College (7-0)
3. South Florida (6-0)
4. Kansas (6-0)
5. Arizona State (7-0)
6. Hawaii (7-0)
7. LSU (6-1)
8. Oklahoma (6-1)
9. Oregon (5-1)
10. Virginia Tech (6-1)
Just Missed: South Carolina, Kentucky, West Virginia, Florida, Missouri
After taking three weeks off for vacation and a wedding, I will be following the travels of national title contender Ohio State for the next four weekends. Go experience college football in 2007 as this might be the season a two loss team makes the championship at the rate it’s going. See you next week!
Marshall turned it around in 1984 and had winning seasons for the next 21 years. Two national titles in I-AA in 1992 and 1996 pushed the university back into I-A in 1997. Marshall jumped back into the MAC that had kicked them out, and continued the high level of success they had enjoyed in I-AA. League championships rained into Huntington, WV in 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2002. In 1999 Marshall went undefeated and ended the season in the Top 10 in the country. Marshall quickly became the flag bearer for all non-BCS schools, trying to bust the BCS and the national title picture. It appeared that Marshall would become an elite I-A program.
Meanwhile in Tampa, South Florida found a way in program infancy to be successful and moved into Raymond James Stadium, the home of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers just one year later in 1998. South Florida found enough success to follow Marshall into Division I-A in 2001, only four years after their beginning. The Bulls started as an independent team for the first two years of I-A play, but still found a small modicum of success. Finally in 2003, the Bulls joined the new Conference USA and had a home.
Marshall head coach Bob Pruett proved how great a recruiter he could be right as Marshall jumped into I-A. All those MAC titles were won on the backs of future pro superstars such as QB Chad Pennington, WR Randy Moss, and QB Byron Leftwich. The rapid national prominence and success led Marshall to think about leaving the conference it was dominating for higher ground. The ACC raid on the Big East and the subsequent fallout led to openings in Conference USA, one of which was snapped up by Marshall. A new coach, Mark Snyder, and 8 nationally televised games in 2005 had the fans excited for more, perhaps even truly busting into the BCS.
Meanwhile in Tampa, coach Jim Leavitt did not recruit the flashiest pro prospects, but somehow found a way to continue getting solid classes of recruits in the hotbed that is Florida. Only two years after joining Conference USA, the aforementioned ACC-Big East fallout opened three spots in a BCS conference for non-BCS teams. Surprisingly, the Big East pulled the Bulls out of C-USA alongside more established members Cincinnati and Louisville. Only two seasons removed from I-A independence and four from I-AA, South Florida was viewed as a primary reason the Big East Conference should lose their BCS status. The future looked tough for the Bulls competing against much more established programs.
Unfortunately, 2005 was a turning point for both these up-and-coming programs, at least if you ask Marshall. The Thundering Herd withered in the national spotlight and struggled to 4-7 and 5-6 finishes in 2005 and 2006. This season has been even worse, as the Thundering Herd are 0-6 with embarrassing losses to rival West Virginia and New Hampshire. Fans are calling for coach Snyder’s head already and Marshall is suddenly at the bottom of Division I-A, one of only three teams currently winless out of 120. It is truly the worst of times in Huntington, to paraphrase Dickens.
South Florida maintained the course and found continued success in their 2005 debut in the Big East, including knocking off the heavy league favorite Louisville. The 2006 season continued the surprises as the Bulls knocked off a seemingly BCS-bound West Virginia team in Morgantown. These two seasons signaled that the Bulls were not only worthy of a BCS conference, but may even be a frontrunner. All the determination and hard work of the players and coach Leavitt have paid off in 2007. USF broke into the Top 25 rankings quicker than any other team after jumping into I-A other than Boise State. The Bulls upset Auburn and West Virginia, running out to a 6-0 start. The Bulls have upset the league favorite every year since joining the Big East, and now remain as one of only six undefeated teams in 2007. All the favorites losing in the crazy 2007 season helped South Florida reach #2 in the first BCS standings released this week, only following last season’s championship contender Ohio State. It is indeed the best of times down in Tampa.
At the beginning of 2005, it appeared that Marshall was preparing to break into the BCS and USF had bitten off too hard a challenge. Ten years after Marshall made the move to I-A and USF came into existence, these two up-and-comers could not be more different in 2007. Marshall struggled and has had to watch Boise State steal all their thunder, breaking into the BCS in 2006 and completing the only undefeated season in college football last year with a win over Oklahoma. South Florida continues to get better and better, and is in the driver’s seat for a BCS berth and national championship thanks to the crazy season. This begs the question: how did this divergence happen? How did these two programs on the fast track end up on opposite ends of Division I-A, creating a Dickens-like situation in 2007?
The key is clearly coaching and the size of the communities behind these programs. Bob Pruett might have been a great recruiter, but he moved on and the coaching staffs behind him lack the genius necessary to encourage prized-recruits to come to West Virginia. That state does not have very many good players that are not snatched up by WVU, and neighboring Ohio is a battlefield for bigger schools in the Big Ten. Coaching uncertainty and problems recruiting will only continue to lead this once-proud program into the bottom tier of Division I-A.
There are some coaching trees of high fame and caliber such as the Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick pro/college tree, but Jim Leavitt for USF also comes from another of these groups. Leavitt worked with Bob and Mike Stoops under Hayden Fry, the legendary coach who turned around programs at North Texas State and Iowa. Leavitt learned at an early coaching age how to build a program from the inside out, winning at every level. USF also has an easy time selling Tampa to the local hotbed of recruits in Florida and elsewhere, despite the lack of facilities in the past or program history. USF has been consistently in the top 10 for student enrollment, so the campus is a lively and booming place to be as well. Playing in a top quality NFL stadium in front of a national BCS audience cannot hurt either.
Consequently, ten years after both programs made big leaps in the college football world, each is headed in opposite directions. Marshall hopefully will be able to regain some of the magic of the past few years, but USF could be the real deal on the national stage, a great story for a large campus of fans and one outstanding coach. Even if the boys from Tampa lose a couple games and miss out on the BCS this year, nobody should doubt that Jim Leavitt will continue to improve this program to the point where Top 10 rankings are no longer out of the ordinary. USF and Marshall ... The Tale of Two Programs will continue as crazy 2007 winds down to a frantic finish.
October seems loaded with great games every week, and this is no exception as many top teams get tough road tests. Games such as Michigan at Illinois and Kansas at Colorado will test the mettle of ranked teams, while classic battles such as USC at Notre Dame and Miami at Florida State still have plenty of emotion on the line. The game that just misses the cut this week is Texas Tech at Missouri. The Tigers need to recover quickly from an Oklahoma beatdown while Tech seems to have a legitimate defense for the first time in decades. The winner of this game stays in the hunt for the BCS, while the loser is probably running out of time. Still, that game falls a little short of the Top 3 Games of the Week.
The first game of the week is a Thursday evening showdown between BCS frontrunner South Florida and Rutgers. Last season’s feel good surprise from the Big East will try to right the ship after two straight home losses in front of record Piscataway crowds against Maryland and Cincinnati. Rutgers could grab the conference lead with homes games this week against the Bulls and next week against WVU, but USF is playing to stay in the national title picture. Both teams are coming off a short week, but Rutgers should be fine behind the leadership of QB Mike Teel and Heisman candidate RB Ray Rice. League rookie of the year in 2006, Bulls QB Matt Grothe is a threat on his feet as well as in the passing game. Despite these playmakers, these two teams boast by far the best defensive units in the conference. Expect a low scoring game where a turnover could make all the difference. The poor luck of top ranked teams continues in this one, as Rutgers will win by 4.
The second and third games of the week come from the SEC, and these might as well be Divisional Championship games in October. The second game of the week matches Auburn and LSU in the SEC West. Both teams share the division lead at 3-1 with Alabama, but these two teams appear to be better than the Crimson Tide at this halfway point in the conference season. Both teams have great defenses and know how to win close games against tough competition (they each beat Florida back-to-back in tight games), but the Bayou Bengals have a much better offense. LSU QB Matt Flynn has struggled a bit this season, but RB Jacob Hester has helped keep the offense driving with a top 10 rushing attack. Auburn QB Brandon Cox has thrown 7 interceptions to go with 4 touchdowns this season, and the problems will only get worse on the road against a blitzing defense. LSU is looking for someone to beat on after losing at Kentucky and knows the BCS championship is still on the line, so expect LSU to solidify the path to the SEC Title game with a 17 point win.
The top game of the week is Florida at Kentucky, a battle for controlling destiny in the SEC East race. Kentucky needs another loss by South Carolina to gain control of the division, but a loss for either team all but knocks them out of SEC title contention. Both the Gators and Wildcats have potent offensive units. Florida goes as QB Tim Tebow goes, and he will use his legs and powerful arm to carry the Gators in all games this season. Gator WR Percy Harvin has been Tebow’s favorite target. Kentucky counters with Heisman hopeful QB Andre’ Woodson, whose 21 TD and 4 INT is impressive to go along with a win against top-ranked LSU. Kentucky will be without leading rusher Rafael Little again this week, but that did not slow them last week as RB Derrick Locke and RB Tony Dixon split the workload. Florida has fallen from the BCS Championship days with two straight losses to Auburn and LSU, followed by a bye week last week which has been emotionally trying with the death of DB Michael Guilford in a motorcycle accident. The Gators are favored to continue the dominance over Kentucky, but the Wildcats have been in enough close games to defend the home turf in this one. Florida loses a shocking third straight game, Kentucky by 3.
GOTW Record to Date: 13-11 (.542)
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 – Week 7
1. Ohio State (7-0)
2. Boston College (7-0)
3. South Florida (6-0)
4. Kansas (6-0)
5. Arizona State (7-0)
6. Hawaii (7-0)
7. LSU (6-1)
8. Oklahoma (6-1)
9. Oregon (5-1)
10. Virginia Tech (6-1)
Just Missed: South Carolina, Kentucky, West Virginia, Florida, Missouri
After taking three weeks off for vacation and a wedding, I will be following the travels of national title contender Ohio State for the next four weekends. Go experience college football in 2007 as this might be the season a two loss team makes the championship at the rate it’s going. See you next week!
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
When, or Will, The Craziness End?
Coming off a tough road win where everything went wrong (turnovers, bad weather, injuries), the top team in the country had a nice home cupcake to heal up. Thirty-six straight home wins, 41 point favorites over the worst team in the conference, and then all of a sudden none of that matters. Stanford 24, USC 23. This tops Colorado beating Oklahoma and even Appalachian State over Michigan. Forget March Madness, this is a whole season of madness. For the second straight week, misery would have company.
Wisconsin was not favored against unranked Illinois, and in the words of Lee Corso, ”someone must know something I don’t know.” Illinois walks all over Wisconsin. Kentucky enjoyed their first ride in the Top 10 in decades for one week, falling at South Carolina. Florida couldn’t shake the loss bug against top ranked LSU despite holding the lead all game until 1:09 left in the game, so no repeat national title in Gainesville. Another week, another four teams in the Top 10 lose. This begs two questions.
1. Will The Craziness End?
No. College football parity has been getting greater and greater, and seasons like this just happen sometimes. Nobody is safe, even at home against terrible opposition. The difference between the 50th best team and the top team is not enough to allow the top team to slack off and still win. You have to like coaches with a lot of experience in this kind of season, the coaches that never let their players get too high or too low emotionally. Les Miles, Bob Stoops, Jim Tressel, they all fit this category. Each school has won a national title in the past decade as well. Still, nobody is safe.
2. Will Anybody End The Season Undefeated?
Yes. The current list stands at 11 teams (Arizona State, Boston College, California, Cincinnati, Hawaii, Kansas, LSU, Missouri, Ohio State, South Florida, and UCONN). Most of these teams are at the halfway point and all have tough conference games remaining. At least one of these teams will run the table and find a way to win. It may be someone as expected as LSU or someone unexpected like Cincinnati, but the game of BCS Survivor will not end anytime soon. Despite this, there will be quite a few one and two loss teams in serious BCS contention.
At one point on Saturday, it seemed as though a BCS Championship Rematch may be in order as USC goes down and LSU trailed by 10 late to Florida. Like everything else this season, any notion of knowing what was going on ended quickly. Even if LSU runs the table, the SEC teams will be hard to beat this bowl season from what we’ve seen so far. Even Notre Dame upset UCLA on the road, so there’s a reason to watch every game out there. Watch out Top 10 teams, the old boys club is not safe at all.
I hate to keep this so short, but as I said last week, this is my vacation week so you’ll not get much of an article. (I’m writing this while watching Hawaii play Sunday morning). So with no further ado, let’s jump right into the Top 3 games of the week.
The first game of the week is our weekly top game in the SEC, that being LSU at Kentucky. LSU might have escaped Florida at home, but the schedule through October remains tough with this one followed by Auburn at home and Alabama on the road. LSU has not played too many true road games so far, so it will be nice to see the top team in the country tested outside the friendly confines. Kentucky’s offense and Heisman candidate QB Andre’ Woodson looked bad in a rough outing at SC last weekend, and it will not get any easier against the best defense in the country. LSU could struggle and make this interesting, but you have to think a defense like this can step up and stop a pocket passer like Woodson. LSU wins by 17.
The second game of the week is Louisville at Cincinnati. The Bearcats are for real and proved it by blasting Oregon State and then knocking off Rutgers in Piscataway. So far the Big East has been hard to figure out, with Louisville and Rutgers losing thrice and twice in a row (respectively) and WVU dropping one at USF. Louisville still has all those weapons on offense though, and the scoreboard will light up like crazy as these rivals from 60 minutes from each other go crazy on questionable defenses. QB Ben Mauk will lead a wide-open Bearcat offense, with his primary targets being WR Marcus Bennett and WR Marshawn Gilyard. Take the over if you are a betting man, but in any event, Cincinnati will not lose focus at home. Bearcats win by 7.
The best game of the week is Missouri at Oklahoma. Missouri has looked pretty good knocking off teams like Nebraska and Illinois, but this will be a tougher test. Oklahoma recovered from the big CU upset with a win the Red River Rivalry, so OU will look to keep that positive momentum going. QB Sam Bradford leads a potent Sooner passing attack, but the rushing attack is even more formidable whether Allen Patrick or DeMarco Murray is in there. Missouri counters with an even better passing game, led by veteran QB Chase Daniel. The key to the game will be if Missouri can establish the run and keep Oklahoma’s crowd out of the game. I’d take the Tigers at home, but deep in the heart of Norman you have to like the Sooners. Another undefeated team loses, as Missouri goes down by 10.
GOTW Record to Date: 12-9 (.571)
Last Week: 3-3
Fitz Top 10 – Week 6
1. LSU (6-0)
2. Ohio State (6-0)
3. California (5-0)
4. Boston College (6-0)
5. Cincinnati (6-0)
6. South Florida (5-0)
7. Missouri (5-0)
8. Kansas (5-0)
9. Hawaii (6-0)
10. Arizona State (6-0)
Just Missed: Connecticut, Oregon, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Virginia Tech
Have a great week everyone! If you’re in Nassau on Wednesday, come see me at the Hard Rock Café. Yes I said Nassau!
Wisconsin was not favored against unranked Illinois, and in the words of Lee Corso, ”someone must know something I don’t know.” Illinois walks all over Wisconsin. Kentucky enjoyed their first ride in the Top 10 in decades for one week, falling at South Carolina. Florida couldn’t shake the loss bug against top ranked LSU despite holding the lead all game until 1:09 left in the game, so no repeat national title in Gainesville. Another week, another four teams in the Top 10 lose. This begs two questions.
1. Will The Craziness End?
No. College football parity has been getting greater and greater, and seasons like this just happen sometimes. Nobody is safe, even at home against terrible opposition. The difference between the 50th best team and the top team is not enough to allow the top team to slack off and still win. You have to like coaches with a lot of experience in this kind of season, the coaches that never let their players get too high or too low emotionally. Les Miles, Bob Stoops, Jim Tressel, they all fit this category. Each school has won a national title in the past decade as well. Still, nobody is safe.
2. Will Anybody End The Season Undefeated?
Yes. The current list stands at 11 teams (Arizona State, Boston College, California, Cincinnati, Hawaii, Kansas, LSU, Missouri, Ohio State, South Florida, and UCONN). Most of these teams are at the halfway point and all have tough conference games remaining. At least one of these teams will run the table and find a way to win. It may be someone as expected as LSU or someone unexpected like Cincinnati, but the game of BCS Survivor will not end anytime soon. Despite this, there will be quite a few one and two loss teams in serious BCS contention.
At one point on Saturday, it seemed as though a BCS Championship Rematch may be in order as USC goes down and LSU trailed by 10 late to Florida. Like everything else this season, any notion of knowing what was going on ended quickly. Even if LSU runs the table, the SEC teams will be hard to beat this bowl season from what we’ve seen so far. Even Notre Dame upset UCLA on the road, so there’s a reason to watch every game out there. Watch out Top 10 teams, the old boys club is not safe at all.
I hate to keep this so short, but as I said last week, this is my vacation week so you’ll not get much of an article. (I’m writing this while watching Hawaii play Sunday morning). So with no further ado, let’s jump right into the Top 3 games of the week.
The first game of the week is our weekly top game in the SEC, that being LSU at Kentucky. LSU might have escaped Florida at home, but the schedule through October remains tough with this one followed by Auburn at home and Alabama on the road. LSU has not played too many true road games so far, so it will be nice to see the top team in the country tested outside the friendly confines. Kentucky’s offense and Heisman candidate QB Andre’ Woodson looked bad in a rough outing at SC last weekend, and it will not get any easier against the best defense in the country. LSU could struggle and make this interesting, but you have to think a defense like this can step up and stop a pocket passer like Woodson. LSU wins by 17.
The second game of the week is Louisville at Cincinnati. The Bearcats are for real and proved it by blasting Oregon State and then knocking off Rutgers in Piscataway. So far the Big East has been hard to figure out, with Louisville and Rutgers losing thrice and twice in a row (respectively) and WVU dropping one at USF. Louisville still has all those weapons on offense though, and the scoreboard will light up like crazy as these rivals from 60 minutes from each other go crazy on questionable defenses. QB Ben Mauk will lead a wide-open Bearcat offense, with his primary targets being WR Marcus Bennett and WR Marshawn Gilyard. Take the over if you are a betting man, but in any event, Cincinnati will not lose focus at home. Bearcats win by 7.
The best game of the week is Missouri at Oklahoma. Missouri has looked pretty good knocking off teams like Nebraska and Illinois, but this will be a tougher test. Oklahoma recovered from the big CU upset with a win the Red River Rivalry, so OU will look to keep that positive momentum going. QB Sam Bradford leads a potent Sooner passing attack, but the rushing attack is even more formidable whether Allen Patrick or DeMarco Murray is in there. Missouri counters with an even better passing game, led by veteran QB Chase Daniel. The key to the game will be if Missouri can establish the run and keep Oklahoma’s crowd out of the game. I’d take the Tigers at home, but deep in the heart of Norman you have to like the Sooners. Another undefeated team loses, as Missouri goes down by 10.
GOTW Record to Date: 12-9 (.571)
Last Week: 3-3
Fitz Top 10 – Week 6
1. LSU (6-0)
2. Ohio State (6-0)
3. California (5-0)
4. Boston College (6-0)
5. Cincinnati (6-0)
6. South Florida (5-0)
7. Missouri (5-0)
8. Kansas (5-0)
9. Hawaii (6-0)
10. Arizona State (6-0)
Just Missed: Connecticut, Oregon, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Virginia Tech
Have a great week everyone! If you’re in Nassau on Wednesday, come see me at the Hard Rock Café. Yes I said Nassau!
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
Prevailing in a Game of BCS Survivor
What a rough week to reside in the top ten of college football. My last column focused on the month of near-upsets, which just proves you should not make generalizations about a month before the last weekend is over. It seemed inevitable, but the real big upsets finally started happening in bulk. For anybody who loves the recent onslaught of television shows such as Survivor and Solitary, college football is the best sport because every week the top teams are locked in a struggle for survival. For anybody who desires excitement and unpredictability, college football hits the spot. If you missed this weekend of college football, there’s still time to make up for it this weekend.
My primary topic is poll voting this week, which seems appropriate after such a shake-up as September 29. Before we get into that, a re-evaluation of those teams split into categories of contenders is merited. One bloody weekend in college football knocked the number of undefeated I-A teams to 15 from the previous mark of 23. As last week’s column explained, these undefeated teams can be split into four categories: The Top Contenders, The Second Tier, The Dark Horses, and Are You Kidding? Although it seems like no more than one undefeated team will emerge in December right now, all one-loss teams have been removed from the “BCS Survivor Pool” classifications until further notice.
The Top Contenders still contains the best two teams in college football, USC and LSU, but newcomers Boston College and Ohio State join the fray at the top of the list. The Eagles and Buckeyes are the class of the weaker BCS conferences and could run the table easier than everyone else. The Second Tier keeps California, but adds Wisconsin, Kentucky, and Cincinnati. California got lucky at Oregon but looks good enough to maybe knock off USC at home, while Wisconsin would be a top contender if they could win a game before the final possession. The Wildcats and Bearcats have been absolutely destroying the competition up until now, and both could end up being competitive in the tough conferences. Still, all of these teams have an uphill battle to stay undefeated.
The Dark Horses are a new lot of teams: Purdue, Arizona State, Hawaii, and South Florida. Each of these teams are undefeated now and have looked good, but each has serious flaws and is probably only the third-best team in their respective conference (except for Hawaii, who is on the outside looking in due to not being in a BCS conference). Now the “Are You Kidding?” file really means what it sounds like, as Missouri, Kansas, and Connecticut finish the list of undefeated teams. The Big XII North had a banner week last week, but the whole conference will self-destruct against each other in a matter of weeks. Connecticut is the only really bad undefeated team left, but who knows with the crazy start in the Big East.
It was a rough week to be a member of the top ten in the polls on Friday and Saturday. West Virginia lost QB Pat White to injury, and the South Florida defense stuffed RB Steve Slaton on Friday night. West Virginia looked like a real fraud in Tampa, and the going will only get tougher against teams like Rutgers. Speaking of the Scarlet Knights, the largest crowd in New Jersey history piled into Rutgers stadium only to see their beloved team choke away another top ten ranking against Maryland. The Heisman hopefuls in the Big East are probably now facing an insurmountable climb to the award after their teams fell behind in the conference race. With Syracuse, Connecticut, and South Florida leading the league standings, watch out for an upside down year in the Big East.
While the Big East may have suffered a credibility hit as the conference becomes more balanced, the Big XII South division has finally fallen from grace. Oklahoma and Texas were stone-cold locks for 3-0 against the North division almost every year, and even Baylor managed 3 wins against the lesser half last season. All of a sudden, the fourth and fifth best teams from the North beat OU and UT in a crazy few hours. And now the only real pushover in the North is Iowa State, matching the South’s Baylor. Instead of being a top five battle for the ages in the Red River Shootout, it’s a battle to avoid an 0-2 start in conference play. Oklahoma and Texas need to learn their lessons quickly, or else this might be the year where a team like Missouri beats a team like Oklahoma State in the Big XII Powder Puff Championship.
The revenge factor did not matter this past weekend, as the USF-WVU and KState-Texas repeat upsets proved. Also in this mix was defending national champion Florida, who lost to Auburn for the second straight year and broke the mystique of playing in the Swamp. Oklahoma and Florida are still top contenders at one loss alongside Oregon, but the Sooners and Gators need to play more than one half of football to beat conference opponents such as Colorado and Auburn. LSU may have lost if they were not playing absolute cupcake Tulane this weekend, and the ability of the Tigers to play well outside of Louisiana is still untested halfway through the season. Still, LSU had the second-easiest time of the weekend so no complaints yet.
The Pac-10 contenders put on quite a show this weekend. USC lost 5 starters to injury, turned the ball over multiple times, and still managed to survive 27-24 in rainy and cold Seattle. This was the absolute worst game I’ve seen USC play under Pete Carroll, but still they won against a reasonably tough opponent. One note on the Huskies: while I applaud you for making it out of the toughest September schedule at just 2-3, Jake Locker needs to learn to stop turning the ball over in the red zone against teams like Ohio State and USC. The Huskies could be a Top 25 team with wins over USC, OSU, and Boise State right now, but they just did not finish the job.
California and Oregon did not explode offensively until the second half, but the game was well-played by both contenders. California showed a lot of mental toughness to escape Autzen Stadium with a win, but Oregon deserved at least overtime barring a freak fumble at the end of the game. Those teams could have gone 4-5 overtimes and doubled the score before it was decided, but both teams will beat USC if the Trojans have another bad day like they had Saturday. A tough day for the top contenders, but all 3 looked good despite the struggles.
The final two top ten teams hailed from Big Ten country, but Wisconsin could not shake the tough game bug running rampant. The Badgers have narrowly escaped games against The Citadel, UNLV, Iowa, and now Michigan State in consecutive weeks. Wisconsin struggles to score any points against anemic UNLV and Iowa, then turns around and finds a way to outscore Michigan State. A late fumble cost the Spartans a sure chance to at least tie the game and go to overtime, but Wisconsin will not continue to get that lucky. This week at a suddenly tough Illinois should be a true test of how good the Badgers are, and perhaps the last true threat before a trip to Columbus in November. Speaking of Columbus, the only team that had an easy time on Saturday throughout was Ohio State as they methodically blew through the Golden Gophers of Minnesota (and if you watched the game, you know what I’m referring to). The Buckeyes are finally coming into their own offensively while the defense stays rock-solid. The Bucks will need a good offense this week to keep up with a Purdue team that will finally challenge the Buckeye defense.
While the Top 10 welcomes new members Boston College, Kentucky, and South Florida this week, each of them should beware the target that just got plastered on their backs. A week with as many crucial battles in the Top 25 as next weekend is always danger zone for these top teams. While the anticipation of this week’s previews might be killing you, there are a couple real issues to talk about before moving on.
First, every coach will always try to find a way to bend the rules to gain a slight advantage. Wisconsin’s Bret Bielema proved that the clock starting on a kickoff could be used to waste the final 30 seconds of a half or game to ice a victory without giving the other team their legitimate chance to come back. This problem has been remedied, but now a new problem sprouts in pro football in calling timeouts before game-winning field goals so late that the snap and kick go off before referees can stop the play. While the Raiders and Browns got robbed in the past two weeks using this “strategy,” Auburn could have lost as well against Florida had it not been for one kicker’s nerves of steel. Unless something is done soon, a big game with national title implications could go sour soon all because a coach moves beyond icing the kicker to basically forcing each important field goal to be kicked twice. This is nothing against Urban Meyer, as he did nothing outside the rules as they currently stand. This needs to be changed before it starts robbing teams in college football, where one game can make or break a season unlike the pro game.
The primary issue of this article - which somehow managed to get pushed to page 4 of this document - is voting in polls! The BCS has enough critics to fill a country or two, but one big problem is the fact that no matter whether more control is given to computers or human pollsters, it feels unfair either way. The problem with human polls is that everybody has a spin and an agenda, especially the coaches who count for 1/3 of the BCS formula. Plus the coaches cannot be expected to follow every game each Saturday with all their other duties. The Harris poll and the AP poll have quite a bit more credibility it seems, but the overall moves up and down of teams indicates that a significant portion of voters are not paying attention.
Despite what Colin Cowherd and others may tell you, if your top 3 is USC, LSU, and Oklahoma right now, you are crazy. Just as crazy as you were for keeping Michigan in the top 15 or 20 after losing to Appalachian State, or for underrating teams like Kansas State, Illinois, and Purdue who have played far better than most other Top 25 teams so far (and each is either undefeated or one bad break away). Oklahoma did not show up to play in the second half, and they should be punished in the rankings. Not as much as West Virginia or Texas who were beaten down, but still punished. The main reason polls are unfair is that it kills the opportunities for teams who do not start the season ranked or in the public eye.
While I have no qualms with how Florida played their best game of the year to beat the lackadaisical Buckeyes in Tempe last January, Boise State’s win over Oklahoma proves that the little guy deserves the chance to play for a title when they are one of two or fewer undefeated teams left at the end of the season. That being said, my new philosophy for voting in polls is that going undefeated should be rewarded more than anything else in college football. It is so hard to navigate the minefield for 12 weeks that anybody who survives in any league with a 12-0 record should top the polls. If the computers determine that the team played such a poor schedule that a Boise State deserves to be kicked out of the championship, then let the computers determine that with their 1/3 (or in a perfect world, 1/2). Once the BCS Survivor Pool goes down to 15 or fewer undefeated teams, I am going to vote all undefeated teams above all others. This will not apply to teams with one and two losses because once you lose, I think the losses and overall schedules are worth comparing to see if a two-loss team deserves a higher ranking.
Many will disagree with my new philosophy, as it currently ranks the likes of Connecticut and Kansas above the likes of Florida and Oklahoma. I think pollsters have to stay flexible though, being ready to move teams up or down based on performance. I presume the main criticism of my vote will be the above-mentioned fact that UConn is rated #15, but if they end up unexpectedly running the table and winning the Big East, I want them in the title game no matter how bad their talent is. Even the best dynasties can only count on 2 or maybe 3 undefeated regular seasons out of 10 (and nobody debates how good Miami, USC, and Ohio State have been in recent years), so those special accomplishments should be rewarded. Plus, the beauty of my system is that it will work itself out over the course of October as the undefeated list shrinks quickly, and the highest quality one loss or two loss teams move back into the Top 10.
Please feel free to wreck my method on the message boards or over email, as I’m just as flawed as the next voter. Nevertheless I feel that a principled approach is better than no approach at all, and flexibility is what should be valued more than anything else. With that said...
The tradition is so ingrained that it’s hard to break, but every once in a while a week comes along where I have to preview more than 3 games. The slate of games this weekend dictates that this is so. Instead of what I’ve done in the past, previewing and picking one bonus game which does not count toward my season total, the slate is so good I’m doubling up this week. That’s right, here comes the top 6 games of the week! This may also have something to do with the fact that I’m on vacation next week and will have a very short article if anything.
So here’s a six-pack on the best slate of games all season. Even picking 6 games, I had to leave out 3 very deserving games in Virginia Tech at Clemson (because Clemson is overrated and will lose this game big), Wisconsin at Illinois (because Illinois is not ranking-worthy until they beat a team like Wisconsin), and Kansas at Kansas State (because both these teams will probably falter soon). Think about that, one game between nationally ranked opponents and two more where the combined records are 9-1 of the teams. Those three are just outclassed by the following six. An unbelievable slate, so don’t miss one minute!
The first game of the week is Nebraska at Missouri, a critical battle that may decide the Big XII North title. Nebraska has been much stronger offensively this year behind QB Sam Keller and RB Marlon Lucky. The one concern is the defense, which got sliced and diced against the Trojans three weeks ago. This is bad news as Missouri has an even more prolific offense than Nebraska behind QB Chase Daniel. Look for tons of passing and for both teams to try and establish the run. While Missouri does have the home field and more experience on defense, Nebraska has a much better quarterback and that will be the difference. Nebraska drops another undefeated team out of the BCS race by 7.
The second game of the week is Cincinnati at Rutgers, a Big East opener for both teams. Given that the 0-1 ranks include West Virginia and Louisville right now, I suppose Rutgers should just go and join them. The Bearcats have blown by five straight opponents, highlighted by a 34-3 dismantling of Oregon State. QB Ben Mauk has been decent so far, but he has not been pressured too much. Butler Benton and Greg Moore give the Bearcat rushing attack some serious depth. The opposition will be much bigger this week as the fans in Piscataway will be fired up and ready for vengeance after Rutgers lost at home last week. Cincinnati could make big inroads toward making it a five team race in the Big East with a road win here, but expect the Bearcats to be competitive all season. Rutgers has RB Ray Rice and a killer defense, so with the home field rocking you have to believe Rutgers avoids the two game losing streak. Another undefeated team falls by the wayside as Rutgers should be able to play ball hog all game and tire out the Cincinnati defense. Scarlet Knights by 10.
While there may be a prettier game in the SEC this weekend, all eyes will be on the third game of the week on Thursday night in primetime, Kentucky at South Carolina. Kentucky is ranked in the Top 10 for the first time in decades and has a dark horse Heisman QB in Andre’ Woodson, but the Wildcats are going into a brutal three game stretch where they play the best three teams in the SEC (at SC, then home against LSU and Florida). South Carolina will be ready to fight with experienced head coach Steve Spurrier only dropping a game to LSU thus far. Look for South Carolina to finally score some points and get some offense going behind QB Chris Smelley and his primary playmaker WR Kenny McKinley. Unfortunately, Kentucky and Woodson have survived enough close games to make it out of this one still undefeated heading into the big game against LSU. Kentucky by 13.
There are many names for the Red River Shootout this season: Texas vs. Oklahoma, tickets still available, the battle to avoid 0-2, the what might have been bowl... No matter the name, both rivals will be even more ready to fight after being upset last weekend. Oklahoma has been scary good outside of Boulder this season, ripping through all opponents including Miami. QB Sam Bradford leads a potent Sooner passing attack, but the real strength of their offense is the rushing duo of Allen Patrick and DeMarco Murray. QB Colt McCoy is becoming a Lone Star superstar, but Texas is clearly worse than it has been the past two or three seasons. A second straight punking at the hands of K-State is just the tip of the iceberg, as Texas is lucky to escape games against weak Arkansas State, TCU, and Central Florida. Oklahoma has lost the last couple in this series, but the talent is just too much this season and Texas has played too sloppy on defense to win this one. Oklahoma by 7.
Every week seems to bring a monster game in the SEC, but this week brings the crown jewel of them all: Florida at LSU. Even with Florida’s second straight loss to Auburn last weekend, LSU and Florida were clearly looking forward to this one as both played half-heartedly. LSU’s defense has been the best in football this season, but Urban Meyer always seems to be able to come up with a scheme to befuddle the best defenses. LSU has not had a real tough road game yet (that comes next week at Kentucky of all places), but the good news for them is that this one is as far away from the Swamp as you can get. QB Matt Flynn needs to continue his solid play, while his opponent Tim Tebow has to find help from WR Percy Harvin and RB Kestahn Moore. Tebow will certainly pull the whole Gator team on his shoulders again if he has to, but LSU is too smart to lose track of him. Florida officially loses any hope of defending the national title with a second straight loss this week, as LSU wins by 17 (on the defense!).
There’s only one battle of undefeated teams, so the last and top game of the week is Ohio State at Purdue. While the Big Ten has been mediocre so far overall, these two teams have played the best out of all the conference teams. Neither team has been really challenged in five weeks, so we will find out how good these undefeated teams are on the big stage Saturday night. Purdue has a strong offense as usual behind QB Curtis Painter (18 TD) and RB Kory Sheets, but there will be no 45 points this week against a dominant Buckeye defense. The Buckeye offense has survived road trips to Seattle and Minneapolis so far, and QB Todd Boeckman and RB Chris “Beanie” Wells seem to be hitting their stride at the right time going into this game. Purdue has played the Buckeyes tough in recent years, forcing the 2002 Buckeyes to win on the famous “Holy Buckeye” pass, pushing the 2003 Buckeyes to overtime before losing, and winning the last meeting in 2004. Unfortunately for the Boilermakers, Ohio State is a second-half team while Purdue makes their hay usually in the first half. Purdue also had the closest call against the joke that is Notre Dame and gives up more points than they should, so barring poor weather the Buckeyes will grind out a 14 point win. If it rains, Buckeyes by 3.
GOTW Record to Date: 9-6 (.600)
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 – Week 5
1. USC (4-0)
2. LSU (5-0)
3. California (5-0)
4. Ohio State (5-0)
5. Boston College (5-0)
6. Wisconsin (5-0)
7. Kentucky (5-0)
8. Cincinnati (5-0)
9. South Florida (4-0)
10. Purdue (5-0)
Just Missed: Arizona State, Missouri, Kansas, Hawaii, Connecticut
Hopefully I will get in a very short article next week, but in any event we’ll see you soon. Keep watching those great college games!
My primary topic is poll voting this week, which seems appropriate after such a shake-up as September 29. Before we get into that, a re-evaluation of those teams split into categories of contenders is merited. One bloody weekend in college football knocked the number of undefeated I-A teams to 15 from the previous mark of 23. As last week’s column explained, these undefeated teams can be split into four categories: The Top Contenders, The Second Tier, The Dark Horses, and Are You Kidding? Although it seems like no more than one undefeated team will emerge in December right now, all one-loss teams have been removed from the “BCS Survivor Pool” classifications until further notice.
The Top Contenders still contains the best two teams in college football, USC and LSU, but newcomers Boston College and Ohio State join the fray at the top of the list. The Eagles and Buckeyes are the class of the weaker BCS conferences and could run the table easier than everyone else. The Second Tier keeps California, but adds Wisconsin, Kentucky, and Cincinnati. California got lucky at Oregon but looks good enough to maybe knock off USC at home, while Wisconsin would be a top contender if they could win a game before the final possession. The Wildcats and Bearcats have been absolutely destroying the competition up until now, and both could end up being competitive in the tough conferences. Still, all of these teams have an uphill battle to stay undefeated.
The Dark Horses are a new lot of teams: Purdue, Arizona State, Hawaii, and South Florida. Each of these teams are undefeated now and have looked good, but each has serious flaws and is probably only the third-best team in their respective conference (except for Hawaii, who is on the outside looking in due to not being in a BCS conference). Now the “Are You Kidding?” file really means what it sounds like, as Missouri, Kansas, and Connecticut finish the list of undefeated teams. The Big XII North had a banner week last week, but the whole conference will self-destruct against each other in a matter of weeks. Connecticut is the only really bad undefeated team left, but who knows with the crazy start in the Big East.
It was a rough week to be a member of the top ten in the polls on Friday and Saturday. West Virginia lost QB Pat White to injury, and the South Florida defense stuffed RB Steve Slaton on Friday night. West Virginia looked like a real fraud in Tampa, and the going will only get tougher against teams like Rutgers. Speaking of the Scarlet Knights, the largest crowd in New Jersey history piled into Rutgers stadium only to see their beloved team choke away another top ten ranking against Maryland. The Heisman hopefuls in the Big East are probably now facing an insurmountable climb to the award after their teams fell behind in the conference race. With Syracuse, Connecticut, and South Florida leading the league standings, watch out for an upside down year in the Big East.
While the Big East may have suffered a credibility hit as the conference becomes more balanced, the Big XII South division has finally fallen from grace. Oklahoma and Texas were stone-cold locks for 3-0 against the North division almost every year, and even Baylor managed 3 wins against the lesser half last season. All of a sudden, the fourth and fifth best teams from the North beat OU and UT in a crazy few hours. And now the only real pushover in the North is Iowa State, matching the South’s Baylor. Instead of being a top five battle for the ages in the Red River Shootout, it’s a battle to avoid an 0-2 start in conference play. Oklahoma and Texas need to learn their lessons quickly, or else this might be the year where a team like Missouri beats a team like Oklahoma State in the Big XII Powder Puff Championship.
The revenge factor did not matter this past weekend, as the USF-WVU and KState-Texas repeat upsets proved. Also in this mix was defending national champion Florida, who lost to Auburn for the second straight year and broke the mystique of playing in the Swamp. Oklahoma and Florida are still top contenders at one loss alongside Oregon, but the Sooners and Gators need to play more than one half of football to beat conference opponents such as Colorado and Auburn. LSU may have lost if they were not playing absolute cupcake Tulane this weekend, and the ability of the Tigers to play well outside of Louisiana is still untested halfway through the season. Still, LSU had the second-easiest time of the weekend so no complaints yet.
The Pac-10 contenders put on quite a show this weekend. USC lost 5 starters to injury, turned the ball over multiple times, and still managed to survive 27-24 in rainy and cold Seattle. This was the absolute worst game I’ve seen USC play under Pete Carroll, but still they won against a reasonably tough opponent. One note on the Huskies: while I applaud you for making it out of the toughest September schedule at just 2-3, Jake Locker needs to learn to stop turning the ball over in the red zone against teams like Ohio State and USC. The Huskies could be a Top 25 team with wins over USC, OSU, and Boise State right now, but they just did not finish the job.
California and Oregon did not explode offensively until the second half, but the game was well-played by both contenders. California showed a lot of mental toughness to escape Autzen Stadium with a win, but Oregon deserved at least overtime barring a freak fumble at the end of the game. Those teams could have gone 4-5 overtimes and doubled the score before it was decided, but both teams will beat USC if the Trojans have another bad day like they had Saturday. A tough day for the top contenders, but all 3 looked good despite the struggles.
The final two top ten teams hailed from Big Ten country, but Wisconsin could not shake the tough game bug running rampant. The Badgers have narrowly escaped games against The Citadel, UNLV, Iowa, and now Michigan State in consecutive weeks. Wisconsin struggles to score any points against anemic UNLV and Iowa, then turns around and finds a way to outscore Michigan State. A late fumble cost the Spartans a sure chance to at least tie the game and go to overtime, but Wisconsin will not continue to get that lucky. This week at a suddenly tough Illinois should be a true test of how good the Badgers are, and perhaps the last true threat before a trip to Columbus in November. Speaking of Columbus, the only team that had an easy time on Saturday throughout was Ohio State as they methodically blew through the Golden Gophers of Minnesota (and if you watched the game, you know what I’m referring to). The Buckeyes are finally coming into their own offensively while the defense stays rock-solid. The Bucks will need a good offense this week to keep up with a Purdue team that will finally challenge the Buckeye defense.
While the Top 10 welcomes new members Boston College, Kentucky, and South Florida this week, each of them should beware the target that just got plastered on their backs. A week with as many crucial battles in the Top 25 as next weekend is always danger zone for these top teams. While the anticipation of this week’s previews might be killing you, there are a couple real issues to talk about before moving on.
First, every coach will always try to find a way to bend the rules to gain a slight advantage. Wisconsin’s Bret Bielema proved that the clock starting on a kickoff could be used to waste the final 30 seconds of a half or game to ice a victory without giving the other team their legitimate chance to come back. This problem has been remedied, but now a new problem sprouts in pro football in calling timeouts before game-winning field goals so late that the snap and kick go off before referees can stop the play. While the Raiders and Browns got robbed in the past two weeks using this “strategy,” Auburn could have lost as well against Florida had it not been for one kicker’s nerves of steel. Unless something is done soon, a big game with national title implications could go sour soon all because a coach moves beyond icing the kicker to basically forcing each important field goal to be kicked twice. This is nothing against Urban Meyer, as he did nothing outside the rules as they currently stand. This needs to be changed before it starts robbing teams in college football, where one game can make or break a season unlike the pro game.
The primary issue of this article - which somehow managed to get pushed to page 4 of this document - is voting in polls! The BCS has enough critics to fill a country or two, but one big problem is the fact that no matter whether more control is given to computers or human pollsters, it feels unfair either way. The problem with human polls is that everybody has a spin and an agenda, especially the coaches who count for 1/3 of the BCS formula. Plus the coaches cannot be expected to follow every game each Saturday with all their other duties. The Harris poll and the AP poll have quite a bit more credibility it seems, but the overall moves up and down of teams indicates that a significant portion of voters are not paying attention.
Despite what Colin Cowherd and others may tell you, if your top 3 is USC, LSU, and Oklahoma right now, you are crazy. Just as crazy as you were for keeping Michigan in the top 15 or 20 after losing to Appalachian State, or for underrating teams like Kansas State, Illinois, and Purdue who have played far better than most other Top 25 teams so far (and each is either undefeated or one bad break away). Oklahoma did not show up to play in the second half, and they should be punished in the rankings. Not as much as West Virginia or Texas who were beaten down, but still punished. The main reason polls are unfair is that it kills the opportunities for teams who do not start the season ranked or in the public eye.
While I have no qualms with how Florida played their best game of the year to beat the lackadaisical Buckeyes in Tempe last January, Boise State’s win over Oklahoma proves that the little guy deserves the chance to play for a title when they are one of two or fewer undefeated teams left at the end of the season. That being said, my new philosophy for voting in polls is that going undefeated should be rewarded more than anything else in college football. It is so hard to navigate the minefield for 12 weeks that anybody who survives in any league with a 12-0 record should top the polls. If the computers determine that the team played such a poor schedule that a Boise State deserves to be kicked out of the championship, then let the computers determine that with their 1/3 (or in a perfect world, 1/2). Once the BCS Survivor Pool goes down to 15 or fewer undefeated teams, I am going to vote all undefeated teams above all others. This will not apply to teams with one and two losses because once you lose, I think the losses and overall schedules are worth comparing to see if a two-loss team deserves a higher ranking.
Many will disagree with my new philosophy, as it currently ranks the likes of Connecticut and Kansas above the likes of Florida and Oklahoma. I think pollsters have to stay flexible though, being ready to move teams up or down based on performance. I presume the main criticism of my vote will be the above-mentioned fact that UConn is rated #15, but if they end up unexpectedly running the table and winning the Big East, I want them in the title game no matter how bad their talent is. Even the best dynasties can only count on 2 or maybe 3 undefeated regular seasons out of 10 (and nobody debates how good Miami, USC, and Ohio State have been in recent years), so those special accomplishments should be rewarded. Plus, the beauty of my system is that it will work itself out over the course of October as the undefeated list shrinks quickly, and the highest quality one loss or two loss teams move back into the Top 10.
Please feel free to wreck my method on the message boards or over email, as I’m just as flawed as the next voter. Nevertheless I feel that a principled approach is better than no approach at all, and flexibility is what should be valued more than anything else. With that said...
The tradition is so ingrained that it’s hard to break, but every once in a while a week comes along where I have to preview more than 3 games. The slate of games this weekend dictates that this is so. Instead of what I’ve done in the past, previewing and picking one bonus game which does not count toward my season total, the slate is so good I’m doubling up this week. That’s right, here comes the top 6 games of the week! This may also have something to do with the fact that I’m on vacation next week and will have a very short article if anything.
So here’s a six-pack on the best slate of games all season. Even picking 6 games, I had to leave out 3 very deserving games in Virginia Tech at Clemson (because Clemson is overrated and will lose this game big), Wisconsin at Illinois (because Illinois is not ranking-worthy until they beat a team like Wisconsin), and Kansas at Kansas State (because both these teams will probably falter soon). Think about that, one game between nationally ranked opponents and two more where the combined records are 9-1 of the teams. Those three are just outclassed by the following six. An unbelievable slate, so don’t miss one minute!
The first game of the week is Nebraska at Missouri, a critical battle that may decide the Big XII North title. Nebraska has been much stronger offensively this year behind QB Sam Keller and RB Marlon Lucky. The one concern is the defense, which got sliced and diced against the Trojans three weeks ago. This is bad news as Missouri has an even more prolific offense than Nebraska behind QB Chase Daniel. Look for tons of passing and for both teams to try and establish the run. While Missouri does have the home field and more experience on defense, Nebraska has a much better quarterback and that will be the difference. Nebraska drops another undefeated team out of the BCS race by 7.
The second game of the week is Cincinnati at Rutgers, a Big East opener for both teams. Given that the 0-1 ranks include West Virginia and Louisville right now, I suppose Rutgers should just go and join them. The Bearcats have blown by five straight opponents, highlighted by a 34-3 dismantling of Oregon State. QB Ben Mauk has been decent so far, but he has not been pressured too much. Butler Benton and Greg Moore give the Bearcat rushing attack some serious depth. The opposition will be much bigger this week as the fans in Piscataway will be fired up and ready for vengeance after Rutgers lost at home last week. Cincinnati could make big inroads toward making it a five team race in the Big East with a road win here, but expect the Bearcats to be competitive all season. Rutgers has RB Ray Rice and a killer defense, so with the home field rocking you have to believe Rutgers avoids the two game losing streak. Another undefeated team falls by the wayside as Rutgers should be able to play ball hog all game and tire out the Cincinnati defense. Scarlet Knights by 10.
While there may be a prettier game in the SEC this weekend, all eyes will be on the third game of the week on Thursday night in primetime, Kentucky at South Carolina. Kentucky is ranked in the Top 10 for the first time in decades and has a dark horse Heisman QB in Andre’ Woodson, but the Wildcats are going into a brutal three game stretch where they play the best three teams in the SEC (at SC, then home against LSU and Florida). South Carolina will be ready to fight with experienced head coach Steve Spurrier only dropping a game to LSU thus far. Look for South Carolina to finally score some points and get some offense going behind QB Chris Smelley and his primary playmaker WR Kenny McKinley. Unfortunately, Kentucky and Woodson have survived enough close games to make it out of this one still undefeated heading into the big game against LSU. Kentucky by 13.
There are many names for the Red River Shootout this season: Texas vs. Oklahoma, tickets still available, the battle to avoid 0-2, the what might have been bowl... No matter the name, both rivals will be even more ready to fight after being upset last weekend. Oklahoma has been scary good outside of Boulder this season, ripping through all opponents including Miami. QB Sam Bradford leads a potent Sooner passing attack, but the real strength of their offense is the rushing duo of Allen Patrick and DeMarco Murray. QB Colt McCoy is becoming a Lone Star superstar, but Texas is clearly worse than it has been the past two or three seasons. A second straight punking at the hands of K-State is just the tip of the iceberg, as Texas is lucky to escape games against weak Arkansas State, TCU, and Central Florida. Oklahoma has lost the last couple in this series, but the talent is just too much this season and Texas has played too sloppy on defense to win this one. Oklahoma by 7.
Every week seems to bring a monster game in the SEC, but this week brings the crown jewel of them all: Florida at LSU. Even with Florida’s second straight loss to Auburn last weekend, LSU and Florida were clearly looking forward to this one as both played half-heartedly. LSU’s defense has been the best in football this season, but Urban Meyer always seems to be able to come up with a scheme to befuddle the best defenses. LSU has not had a real tough road game yet (that comes next week at Kentucky of all places), but the good news for them is that this one is as far away from the Swamp as you can get. QB Matt Flynn needs to continue his solid play, while his opponent Tim Tebow has to find help from WR Percy Harvin and RB Kestahn Moore. Tebow will certainly pull the whole Gator team on his shoulders again if he has to, but LSU is too smart to lose track of him. Florida officially loses any hope of defending the national title with a second straight loss this week, as LSU wins by 17 (on the defense!).
There’s only one battle of undefeated teams, so the last and top game of the week is Ohio State at Purdue. While the Big Ten has been mediocre so far overall, these two teams have played the best out of all the conference teams. Neither team has been really challenged in five weeks, so we will find out how good these undefeated teams are on the big stage Saturday night. Purdue has a strong offense as usual behind QB Curtis Painter (18 TD) and RB Kory Sheets, but there will be no 45 points this week against a dominant Buckeye defense. The Buckeye offense has survived road trips to Seattle and Minneapolis so far, and QB Todd Boeckman and RB Chris “Beanie” Wells seem to be hitting their stride at the right time going into this game. Purdue has played the Buckeyes tough in recent years, forcing the 2002 Buckeyes to win on the famous “Holy Buckeye” pass, pushing the 2003 Buckeyes to overtime before losing, and winning the last meeting in 2004. Unfortunately for the Boilermakers, Ohio State is a second-half team while Purdue makes their hay usually in the first half. Purdue also had the closest call against the joke that is Notre Dame and gives up more points than they should, so barring poor weather the Buckeyes will grind out a 14 point win. If it rains, Buckeyes by 3.
GOTW Record to Date: 9-6 (.600)
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 – Week 5
1. USC (4-0)
2. LSU (5-0)
3. California (5-0)
4. Ohio State (5-0)
5. Boston College (5-0)
6. Wisconsin (5-0)
7. Kentucky (5-0)
8. Cincinnati (5-0)
9. South Florida (4-0)
10. Purdue (5-0)
Just Missed: Arizona State, Missouri, Kansas, Hawaii, Connecticut
Hopefully I will get in a very short article next week, but in any event we’ll see you soon. Keep watching those great college games!
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