One weekend remains in the opening month of the college football season, and the stage has been set for a fantastic slate of conference games in October. Looking back on the past four weeks, the only real theme has been a high number of upsets and near upsets, more so than usual for the early-season. For every Appalachian State-Michigan or Syracuse-Louisville, there seems to be 3 “what might have been” games. A quick rundown of these close calls can separate the true national title contenders from the pretenders in September.
The Top Contenders
USC leads the way so far in 2007, not being challenged at all at Nebraska or against Washington State. The road schedule is tough with Washington, Oregon, California, and Arizona State, but the Trojans are the real deal. LSU had something like a close call in the first half against South Carolina, but have dominated all opponents overall including Virginia Tech and the aforementioned Gamecocks. No trouble this week, but after that it gets rough with Florida and Kentucky back-to-back. Oklahoma has had no close calls, and we’ll know more about them in two weeks against Texas. West Virginia is the final team in this top group, only struggling in one half at their rival Marshall. The combination of Pat White and Steve Slaton will be tough to stop all year. These four teams have all the weapons and are not playing down to competition so far in 2007.
The Second Tier
Each of the following teams can certainly make the national title game, but some warning signs have shown early. Florida is getting used to SEC play and the national title target on their back after escaping Mississippi with a 6 point win last weekend, and will need to help Tim Tebow on offense to stay undefeated. A week after dismantling Tennessee, California inexplicably needed a comeback to beat Colorado State by 6. The Golden Bears need to improve defensively to stay with the likes of Oregon and USC. Rutgers has the only defense worth mentioning in the Big East, and that just might let their offense keep up with Louisville, Cincinnati, and West Virginia (and no close calls so far). Boston College makes a surprise appearance up here after racing out to a 3-0 ACC start with impressive wins over Wake Forest and Georgia Tech. Matt Ryan is enough of a playmaker in a weak league like the ACC to perhaps run the table despite a rough last 5 games.
The Dark Horses
While some of these teams are indeed ranked in the Top 10, close calls and tough schedules doom the following lot to outsider status. First up is Oregon, whose 39-7 win at Michigan was no fluke even with the Wolverine injuries. No real close games yet, but the Ducks will face their first truly good opponent this week (Cal). Second on this list is Ohio State, who has a championship-caliber defense and a troubled offense. The Buckeyes need to continue getting new skill players in tough situations so that when Purdue, Penn State, and Wisconsin come knocking, the Bucks are ready. OSU also needs to stop coming out slow as they did against Akron and Washington. Fellow Big Ten frontrunner Wisconsin also fits this category after much too narrow comeback wins against lesser opponents UNLV, The Citadel, and Iowa. The Badgers have gotten lucky so far while making plays when it counts, so perhaps they have the winner’s instinct. Texas rounds out this list much like Wisconsin, with three way-too-close calls against lesser opponents Arkansas State, TCU, and Central Florida. Colt McCoy hit his stride against Rice this week, but Oklahoma looms in 2 weeks.
Are You Kidding?
Clemson has the usual hot September start, only challenged by a quality Florida State team. Still, this team looks like many other Tiger teams in the past, and they all seem to lose 1-2 games in the middle of the season inexplicably. Kentucky joins this list as the true dark horse in the SEC behind Florida and LSU. The October schedule is brutal (at South Carolina, LSU, and Florida in consecutive weeks), but Andre Woodson has proven he will test every defense in the SEC. Hawaii busts into this list on the back of Colt Brennan’s gaudy numbers. The narrow escape at Louisiana Tech is troubling, as is the non-BCS conference affiliation. Still, they have an outside chance. The final Cinderella is Purdue, who might steal a weak Big Ten this season by missing Wisconsin, hosting Ohio State, and going to Penn State for the only tough road game. The Boilermaker offense seems unstoppable, but we will see when they host the Buckeyes in 2 weeks.
I know that the above 16 teams are undefeated, and while there are 7 other undefeated teams so far (for the record: Arizona State, UConn, Michigan State, Cincinnati, South Florida, Missouri, and Kansas) and a handful of high quality one loss teams exist, the rankings above are just where the national title contenders stand right now. Every week that will adjust itself as teams play it all out on the field. This week should remove a few more from the ranks of the undefeated teams, but college football will enter October with many title contenders.
Although my article will be a little short due to personal time constraints this week, I do have to comment on Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy’s post-game blowup at the media conference over a Saturday Oklahoma newspaper article criticizing starting QB Bobby Reid. While the writer, Jenni Carlson, likely had some facts wrong, Gundy was completely across the line when he went out there to defend his player instead of answering questions about the big win the Cowboys just finished. Gundy is completely within his public speaking discretion to try and re-direct the heat to himself from the media, but he has to understand that the media has an equal free speech right to report on and write about the student-athletes leading their teams, not just the bad ones. Everybody will move on from the incident rather quietly I suspect, but Gundy should clam down and brush off criticism of his football kids. Jenni Carlson respects all the hours studying and practicing every starting QB in college football spends each week, but part of getting better is responding to constructive criticism. At least Gundy finally gave us a memorable soundbyte from the 2007 season, which had only been highlighted by Joe Paterno’s lack of technological prowess before now.
Moving to a good slate of games for Week 5, the first game of the week is Michigan State at Wisconsin. The Spartans have an absolutely murderous slate of conference road games, but the defense has played strong under new leader Mark Dantonio. On the other sideline, Bret Bielema tries to continue his amazing success in his second year at Wisconsin. This is the Big Ten opener for MSU, while Wisconsin escaped a home game with Iowa last weekend. Spartan QB Brian Hoyer may struggle against the Badger defense, which would allow them to stack the box and make the sledding tough for both RB Javon Ringer and RB Jehuu Caulcrick. Wisconsin has more talent but has played down to competition thus far, so expect another close game unless RB P.J. Hill breaks the Spartan defense early. Wisconsin narrowly escapes again, this time by 7.
The second game of the week is the first titanic struggle in the Big East race, that being West Virginia going to South Florida on Friday night. Everybody knows that the Mountaineers can put up serious points and yards on anybody with QB Pat White and RB Steve Slaton, but what will be interesting is the other side of the ball. Bulls QB Matt Grothe has been solid this season, but the problem is the lack of a rushing attack. The Bulls need to establish a good running attack to keep WVU off the field as much as possible. Despite hanging with Auburn two weeks ago and this game being down south, WVU will be more prepared than last season for this game. West Virginia sweats it in the first half, then cruises to a 21 point win.
The final and best game of the week has to be California at Oregon. Both teams not only have a serious claim to threatening USC (both get the Trojans at home later this season), but they might also have a claim to the BCS Championship game. This contest is an elimination game for that dream, and may eliminate one team from conference contention early. With tons on the line, California veterans QB Nathan Longshore and RB Justin Forsett should lead a nice balanced attack. Oregon will run the usual wide-open offense to open up lots of running lanes for RB Jonathan Stewart and QB Dennis Dixon. Dixon has also been one of the best quarterbacks in the entire nation thus far, completing over two-thirds of his passes for 932 yards and 11 TD’s. Neither team has faced an offense as good as the one they will face this week, but California has just a bit more close game and big game experience. Nevertheless, Oregon is playing at home and that means a lot. This one goes to overtime, where Cal steals a big win by 3.
GOTW Record to Date: 7-5 (.583)
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 – Week 4
1. USC (3-0)
2. LSU (4-0)
3. Oklahoma (4-0)
4. West Virginia (4-0)
5. California (4-0)
6. Florida (4-0)
7. Ohio State (4-0)
8. Texas (4-0)
9. Wisconsin (4-0)
10. Boston College (4-0)
Just Missed: Rutgers, Oregon, Cincinnati, South Florida, Kentucky
As always, have a fantastic week!
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
The Second Season of Conference Play
With all due respect to the ACC and the SEC, the second season of conference play begins in full force this weekend. This is a dramatic time of year because no matter how your favorite team started the season, all records are essentially reset for conference play. While Michigan has struggled to beat anybody with a pulse and Penn State has cruised to a 3-0 start, all of that will be forgotten if the Nittany Lions cannot break an 8-game losing streak to the Wolverines in Ann Arbor this Saturday. Teams like Michigan may not be in the national title hunt, but that’s usually a third goal behind beating rivals and winning conference titles. The true battle for BCS berths begins now.
So what did the college football nation learn from three weeks of mostly out-of-conference play? Every conference from the SEC to the Sun Belt has some teams to be proud of and others to be embarrassed about. The Pac-10 and Big East appeared to be poised to fight the SEC for the crown of best conference after last year’s bowls and two weeks, but the embarrassments of Louisville, UCLA, and Washington last week puts the conference pecking order back in perspective. The Big East should still be competitive enough to be the nation’s second-best conference despite a lack of defense in Louisville, and the Pac-10 could still be a minefield for USC.
The Big XII still has undefeated teams in Norman, Austin, and College Station, but it looks like the same old weak league story as Nebraska and Oklahoma State get rolled. While Ohio State tried to recapture some Big Ten pride in Seattle in week 3, that still did not make up for the many sins of the Big Ten: (1) Wisconsin struggling against the likes of UNLV and The Citadel; (2) Penn State being slow to put away Notre Dame and Buffalo; (3) Iowa getting embarrassed by winless rival Iowa State; (4) Northwestern breaking Duke’s 22 game losing streak at home; and (5) Michigan’s absolute collapse against any team with a pulse.
The ACC has not looked bad outside of Miami’s loss to Oklahoma, but the conference race seems like a forgone conclusion given the impressive starts of Clemson and Boston College. (Speaking of the Eagles, everything in this column applies in reverse. Welcome to the rest of the world and out-of-conference play in week 4 BC.) These three conferences are clearly still a step behind the top 3 in 2007.
The only three non-BCS conference teams still undefeated after Week 3 are Hawaii, Air Force, and Tulsa. Tulsa will almost certainly drop from that list in week 4 against Oklahoma, but the fact remains that this is a very disappointing year for non-BCS teams after holding such high expectations following the Notre Dame and Boise State breakthroughs in 2006. Hawaii and Air Force have narrowly escaped losing already once this season; however, both should be favored in their next few games. Hawaii is the only team left with a real shot to break into the BCS party, and Colt Brennan will need to keep Hawaii’s record spotless in order to remain in the Heisman hunt. If Hawaii makes it to 10-0, the post-Thanksgiving showdowns against Boise State and Washington will be must-see television.
The story of the week in the ACC is a split between Duke winning a game on the road against a BCS opponent and Boston College ripping through Georgia Tech’s “Ramblin Wreck” defense. Wake Forest and Florida State still have the time and talent to win the Atlantic division despite early conference losses, but BC and Clemson are clearly the class of the division. Virginia leads the early Coastal Division race, but that should still come down to the Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech game. Anything can happen though as LSU and Boston College have exposed the two Tech defensive units. The early verdict: Boston College tops emotional Virginia Tech for the conference title.
Everybody has a win in the Big XII including lowly Iowa State (who lost to Northern Iowa and defeated Iowa, so apparently UNI takes the cake for best team in the Hawkeye state). While it is true that half the teams in the conference are undefeated, expectations are a little lower after Nebraska got mauled for the second straight year by USC. Oklahoma is the class of the conference, but could still slip up and lose it all against Texas or Texas A&M. Missouri will try to live up to expectations and make a conference title game this season as a sub-storyline. No matter what happens, the South Division winner will yet again defeat the North Division winner. Early Verdict: Oklahoma over Nebraska.
The Big East had its worst week of 2007 last week with Louisville and Pittsburgh suffering their first losses while Syracuse continues the hopeless struggle. Connecticut absolutely stole a game from weak old Temple as well (while not as high profile as last season’s Oklahoma-Oregon game, the injustice is just as shocking). Still, taking Syracuse out of the mix leaves a couple very decent teams in Connecticut and Pittsburgh on the “lower tier” of the conference. Much like 2006, the conference will probably feature lots of upsets and twists as teams like WVU and Rutgers are not great on the road. Louisville still has enough offense to make the good teams look silly, so it’s too early to call the five team race. Early Verdict: West Virginia takes the crown followed in order by South Florida, Rutgers, Louisville, and Cincinnati.
The Big Ten is perhaps even harder than the Big East to decipher, with everybody’s pre-season darling Michigan falling apart and nobody winning every game impressively. Michigan State and Minnesota were supposed to be the dregs of the conference, but the two teams could not possibly have had more different starts (Minnesota is lucky to have one win, MSU dominant in 3-0 start). Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin, and even Purdue have enough talent to win the conference. Northwestern, Illinois, and Minnesota are already eliminated from contention, but everyone else is still in it. MSU has to visit Wisconsin, OSU, Iowa, and Purdue, so they are eliminated by schedule. Wisconsin and Purdue have easier schedules than Ohio State, but the one team that stands out in quality of wins and easiest schedule is Penn State. The Nittany Lions only have one tough road game against Michigan (this week), and then every other contending team has to travel through Happy Valley. While Penn State may drop one to the trio of Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Purdue, 7-1 is more than enough to win this conference. Early Verdict: Penn State followed by Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Michigan.
The Pac-10: can anybody stop USC? This has been the question of the past 6 seasons, and the question remains the same as long as Pete Carroll out-recruits every team in the nation. The schedule reverses from 2006 which means the Trojans have to manage to win at Nebraska, Washington, Notre Dame, Oregon, California, and Arizona State to make the BCS Championship. As good as USC is, that’s too tough a gauntlet. The home schedule is a joke this season, but teams like Oregon State and UCLA snuck up on the Trojans last season. Early Verdict: California splits with USC and wins head-to-head, but both go to BCS bowls.
And finally we come to the home of the current national champion, the SEC. Tennessee and Auburn have been more than disappointing, but the surprising play of Alabama and South Carolina under legendary head coaches makes up for that. Florida and LSU are the class of the conference though after absolutely destroying ranked opposition in the first three weeks. LSU hosting Florida starts off a great slate of October battles to shape the conference race. LSU gets two weeks to prepare for their only rough road game at Alabama, so it seems hard to predict anything other than a Florida-LSU rematch in December. That would be a true blessing to college football to get to see those two teams do battle twice this season, but Alabama-Florida would not be too surprising either. Early Verdict: Florida and LSU give each other losses but both make BCS bowls. Florida the SEC Champ in the title game and LSU in the Rose Bowl.
While all three games of the week could conceivably come from the SEC, Georgia at Alabama will have to be left out in the cold this time around. Kentucky goes from the frying pan of Louisville right into the fire this week at Arkansas, who is steaming after a loss at Alabama. QB Andre Woodson did not disappoint in a battle of quarterbacks with Brian Brohm, but Woodson will need continued help from RB Rafael Little to keep the pressure off. Everything in Arkansas runs through DMC, Darren McFadden. Arkansas gave up quite a bit against Alabama, so the passing lanes could be wide open for Woodson. Expect McFadden to have another big game though, and this time the home crowd will make enough of a difference to ruin Kentucky’s conference opener. Arkansas in a nail-biter by 3.
As mentioned above, the only real road obstacle standing between Penn State and a Big Ten title happens to be Michigan. Penn State has lost 8 straight to Big Blue including a last second hail mary loss at Ann Arbor in 2005 that turned out to cost PSU an undefeated season. This is a different Michigan team though, even with Mike Hart healthy and another promising freshman quarterback Ryan Mallett taking the reins. Penn State is now the favorite thanks to actually having a defense (and a good one at that), while Michigan struggles to find a defensive identity. PSU also has a nicely balanced offensive attack, with QB Anthony Morelli and the dual threat rushing attack of RB Rodney Kinlaw and RB Austin Scott leading the way. Mike Hart will find the sledding tough against the Nittany Lion defense, but the key will be how Mallett deals with the certain heavy blitz package Joe Paterno will throw at him. Michigan earns back a little respectability in this one, but the real Top 10 team and conference front-runner will be in the white jerseys. PSU by 11.
The game of the week pits two undefeated SEC teams together as South Carolina goes to LSU. QB Blake Mitchell has been serviceable for the Gamecocks, but the real stars are RB’s Cory Boyd and Mike Davis. On the other offensive unit, QB Matt Flynn and WR Early Doucet have had an extra week of rest after sitting against MTSU last week. Steve Spurrier can make the most out of nothing talent-wise, so expect South Carolina to be more competitive than Virginia Tech was two weeks ago. Still, LSU has perhaps the best defense in the country this season and South Carolina is having trouble putting points on the board. Look for LSU to get a couple early breaks and make the Gamecocks desperate, which will compound the problems and lead to a LSU 24 point wacking.
GOTW Record to Date: 6-3 (.666)
Last Week: 2-1 (yet again)
Fitz Top 10 – Week 3
1. USC (2-0)
2. LSU (3-0)
3. Oklahoma (3-0)
4. West Virginia (3-0)
5. Florida (3-0)
6. California (3-0)
7. Texas (3-0)
8. Ohio State (3-0)
9. Penn State (3-0)
10. Wisconsin (3-0)
Just Missed: Rutgers, Boston College, Oregon, Alabama, South Carolina
Have a good week!
So what did the college football nation learn from three weeks of mostly out-of-conference play? Every conference from the SEC to the Sun Belt has some teams to be proud of and others to be embarrassed about. The Pac-10 and Big East appeared to be poised to fight the SEC for the crown of best conference after last year’s bowls and two weeks, but the embarrassments of Louisville, UCLA, and Washington last week puts the conference pecking order back in perspective. The Big East should still be competitive enough to be the nation’s second-best conference despite a lack of defense in Louisville, and the Pac-10 could still be a minefield for USC.
The Big XII still has undefeated teams in Norman, Austin, and College Station, but it looks like the same old weak league story as Nebraska and Oklahoma State get rolled. While Ohio State tried to recapture some Big Ten pride in Seattle in week 3, that still did not make up for the many sins of the Big Ten: (1) Wisconsin struggling against the likes of UNLV and The Citadel; (2) Penn State being slow to put away Notre Dame and Buffalo; (3) Iowa getting embarrassed by winless rival Iowa State; (4) Northwestern breaking Duke’s 22 game losing streak at home; and (5) Michigan’s absolute collapse against any team with a pulse.
The ACC has not looked bad outside of Miami’s loss to Oklahoma, but the conference race seems like a forgone conclusion given the impressive starts of Clemson and Boston College. (Speaking of the Eagles, everything in this column applies in reverse. Welcome to the rest of the world and out-of-conference play in week 4 BC.) These three conferences are clearly still a step behind the top 3 in 2007.
The only three non-BCS conference teams still undefeated after Week 3 are Hawaii, Air Force, and Tulsa. Tulsa will almost certainly drop from that list in week 4 against Oklahoma, but the fact remains that this is a very disappointing year for non-BCS teams after holding such high expectations following the Notre Dame and Boise State breakthroughs in 2006. Hawaii and Air Force have narrowly escaped losing already once this season; however, both should be favored in their next few games. Hawaii is the only team left with a real shot to break into the BCS party, and Colt Brennan will need to keep Hawaii’s record spotless in order to remain in the Heisman hunt. If Hawaii makes it to 10-0, the post-Thanksgiving showdowns against Boise State and Washington will be must-see television.
The story of the week in the ACC is a split between Duke winning a game on the road against a BCS opponent and Boston College ripping through Georgia Tech’s “Ramblin Wreck” defense. Wake Forest and Florida State still have the time and talent to win the Atlantic division despite early conference losses, but BC and Clemson are clearly the class of the division. Virginia leads the early Coastal Division race, but that should still come down to the Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech game. Anything can happen though as LSU and Boston College have exposed the two Tech defensive units. The early verdict: Boston College tops emotional Virginia Tech for the conference title.
Everybody has a win in the Big XII including lowly Iowa State (who lost to Northern Iowa and defeated Iowa, so apparently UNI takes the cake for best team in the Hawkeye state). While it is true that half the teams in the conference are undefeated, expectations are a little lower after Nebraska got mauled for the second straight year by USC. Oklahoma is the class of the conference, but could still slip up and lose it all against Texas or Texas A&M. Missouri will try to live up to expectations and make a conference title game this season as a sub-storyline. No matter what happens, the South Division winner will yet again defeat the North Division winner. Early Verdict: Oklahoma over Nebraska.
The Big East had its worst week of 2007 last week with Louisville and Pittsburgh suffering their first losses while Syracuse continues the hopeless struggle. Connecticut absolutely stole a game from weak old Temple as well (while not as high profile as last season’s Oklahoma-Oregon game, the injustice is just as shocking). Still, taking Syracuse out of the mix leaves a couple very decent teams in Connecticut and Pittsburgh on the “lower tier” of the conference. Much like 2006, the conference will probably feature lots of upsets and twists as teams like WVU and Rutgers are not great on the road. Louisville still has enough offense to make the good teams look silly, so it’s too early to call the five team race. Early Verdict: West Virginia takes the crown followed in order by South Florida, Rutgers, Louisville, and Cincinnati.
The Big Ten is perhaps even harder than the Big East to decipher, with everybody’s pre-season darling Michigan falling apart and nobody winning every game impressively. Michigan State and Minnesota were supposed to be the dregs of the conference, but the two teams could not possibly have had more different starts (Minnesota is lucky to have one win, MSU dominant in 3-0 start). Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin, and even Purdue have enough talent to win the conference. Northwestern, Illinois, and Minnesota are already eliminated from contention, but everyone else is still in it. MSU has to visit Wisconsin, OSU, Iowa, and Purdue, so they are eliminated by schedule. Wisconsin and Purdue have easier schedules than Ohio State, but the one team that stands out in quality of wins and easiest schedule is Penn State. The Nittany Lions only have one tough road game against Michigan (this week), and then every other contending team has to travel through Happy Valley. While Penn State may drop one to the trio of Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Purdue, 7-1 is more than enough to win this conference. Early Verdict: Penn State followed by Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Michigan.
The Pac-10: can anybody stop USC? This has been the question of the past 6 seasons, and the question remains the same as long as Pete Carroll out-recruits every team in the nation. The schedule reverses from 2006 which means the Trojans have to manage to win at Nebraska, Washington, Notre Dame, Oregon, California, and Arizona State to make the BCS Championship. As good as USC is, that’s too tough a gauntlet. The home schedule is a joke this season, but teams like Oregon State and UCLA snuck up on the Trojans last season. Early Verdict: California splits with USC and wins head-to-head, but both go to BCS bowls.
And finally we come to the home of the current national champion, the SEC. Tennessee and Auburn have been more than disappointing, but the surprising play of Alabama and South Carolina under legendary head coaches makes up for that. Florida and LSU are the class of the conference though after absolutely destroying ranked opposition in the first three weeks. LSU hosting Florida starts off a great slate of October battles to shape the conference race. LSU gets two weeks to prepare for their only rough road game at Alabama, so it seems hard to predict anything other than a Florida-LSU rematch in December. That would be a true blessing to college football to get to see those two teams do battle twice this season, but Alabama-Florida would not be too surprising either. Early Verdict: Florida and LSU give each other losses but both make BCS bowls. Florida the SEC Champ in the title game and LSU in the Rose Bowl.
While all three games of the week could conceivably come from the SEC, Georgia at Alabama will have to be left out in the cold this time around. Kentucky goes from the frying pan of Louisville right into the fire this week at Arkansas, who is steaming after a loss at Alabama. QB Andre Woodson did not disappoint in a battle of quarterbacks with Brian Brohm, but Woodson will need continued help from RB Rafael Little to keep the pressure off. Everything in Arkansas runs through DMC, Darren McFadden. Arkansas gave up quite a bit against Alabama, so the passing lanes could be wide open for Woodson. Expect McFadden to have another big game though, and this time the home crowd will make enough of a difference to ruin Kentucky’s conference opener. Arkansas in a nail-biter by 3.
As mentioned above, the only real road obstacle standing between Penn State and a Big Ten title happens to be Michigan. Penn State has lost 8 straight to Big Blue including a last second hail mary loss at Ann Arbor in 2005 that turned out to cost PSU an undefeated season. This is a different Michigan team though, even with Mike Hart healthy and another promising freshman quarterback Ryan Mallett taking the reins. Penn State is now the favorite thanks to actually having a defense (and a good one at that), while Michigan struggles to find a defensive identity. PSU also has a nicely balanced offensive attack, with QB Anthony Morelli and the dual threat rushing attack of RB Rodney Kinlaw and RB Austin Scott leading the way. Mike Hart will find the sledding tough against the Nittany Lion defense, but the key will be how Mallett deals with the certain heavy blitz package Joe Paterno will throw at him. Michigan earns back a little respectability in this one, but the real Top 10 team and conference front-runner will be in the white jerseys. PSU by 11.
The game of the week pits two undefeated SEC teams together as South Carolina goes to LSU. QB Blake Mitchell has been serviceable for the Gamecocks, but the real stars are RB’s Cory Boyd and Mike Davis. On the other offensive unit, QB Matt Flynn and WR Early Doucet have had an extra week of rest after sitting against MTSU last week. Steve Spurrier can make the most out of nothing talent-wise, so expect South Carolina to be more competitive than Virginia Tech was two weeks ago. Still, LSU has perhaps the best defense in the country this season and South Carolina is having trouble putting points on the board. Look for LSU to get a couple early breaks and make the Gamecocks desperate, which will compound the problems and lead to a LSU 24 point wacking.
GOTW Record to Date: 6-3 (.666)
Last Week: 2-1 (yet again)
Fitz Top 10 – Week 3
1. USC (2-0)
2. LSU (3-0)
3. Oklahoma (3-0)
4. West Virginia (3-0)
5. Florida (3-0)
6. California (3-0)
7. Texas (3-0)
8. Ohio State (3-0)
9. Penn State (3-0)
10. Wisconsin (3-0)
Just Missed: Rutgers, Boston College, Oregon, Alabama, South Carolina
Have a good week!
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Getting Off On The Wrong Foot
While two weeks of a 12 game schedule may seem very early to discuss the failed or exceeded expectations of the 2007 season, teams such as Michigan and Notre Dame must start looking around now to figure out how to save this season. Both of those teams and a few others expected to do well have instead started on the wrong foot. An 0-2 start may not seem like a big deal for some programs. Nevertheless, an 0-2 start historically is very hard to dig out of to get to a bowl game, let alone a good bowl game. Therefore the time is now to take a hard look around at the programs missing expectations.
Michigan – lost to Appalachian State 32-34, lost to Oregon 7-39
While eight Big Ten teams are 2-0 going into week three and the other two are 1-1, conference favorite Michigan stands at 0-2 all alone in last place. Embarrassed by being the first nationally ranked team to lose to a I-AA team in week 1, the Wolverines followed that up by getting blown out by the unranked Ducks in week 2. Michigan not only has been outplayed by two opponents with inferior overall talent, the Big Blue quit trying and lost all hope in the Oregon game. This set of circumstances has left most Michigan fans stunned and wondering why this has happened.
The majority of the problems come on the defensive end of the ball, where Michigan has not figured out in the past couple of seasons how to stop a wide-open offense with a mobile quarterback. Troy Smith led Ohio State to three straight wins over the Wolverines simply by leading many four or five wide receiver sets and being mobile enough to punish Michigan when they dropped into heavy pass coverage. The defensive recruiting classes have left a little to be desired the past three seasons, and even shaking things up by hiring Ron English as defensive coordinator has not solved the problem. If Michigan played in the Pac-10 this season, the Wolverines could look forward to 8-9 losses. Thankfully for the Maize and Blue, the Big Ten recruits athletes of a different style to survive the winter weather in northern states come October and November.
Michigan needs to at least slow wide-open offenses to allow a suddenly banged-up offense to keep up. Lloyd Carr needs to open up his playbook on both sides of the ball and experiment with new formations because anything is better than what they have right now. This problem has been brewing for a few years and may trickle down from recruits not staying in Michigan due to rumors of Coach Carr retiring soon. Carr needs to clarify his position or get out now in order to bring the Big Blue recruiting and football program back up to expectations. First things first, Michigan needs to take care of an absurdly weak Notre Dame team this week to gain some confidence going into a rough Big Ten opener against Penn State.
Syracuse – lost to Washington 12-42, lost to Iowa 0-35
While the Orange did expect another slow step in the rebuilding process in 2007, so far the indications are not even as good as expected. With every single other team in the Big East impressing at 2-0, Syracuse stands out as a team that could lose all 12 games if things keep on the same path. The only easy home game left is against Buffalo, as the Orange have to travel to Miami (OH), Pittsburgh, and Connecticut. Syracuse at 0-2 does not even compare to the shock of Michigan being there, but the disheartening thing is how lifeless Syracuse has played against mediocre BCS conference opponents.
In this case, the only cure for the problem might be time and experience, a hard thing to come by when recruiting only gets tougher as the program remains at the bottom of the conference. QB Andrew Robinson could help turn things around, but the offensive line needs to play better to give Robinson more time to make good reads downfield. Washington and Iowa have good defensive units, but that’s no excuse for both RB Curtis Brinkley and RB Derrell Smith to be averaging 2.2 yards per carry on 28 combined attempts. All of the Orange problems need to be solved up front on the offensive and defensive lines, and then Syracuse can worry about further developing skill players and a defensive backfield. The schedule is very front-loaded, so perhaps the Orange can be competitive in their final five games of the season.
Wake Forest – lost to Boston College 28-38, lost to Nebraska 17-20
Unlike the previous two teams, all hope is far from lost in the Demon Deacon camp after an 0-2 start. The defending ACC champions should have won one or both of their first two games of the season; however, both games were back-and-forth affairs that turned out badly in the fourth quarter for Wake. The Demon Deacons found ways to win every close game like this in 2006, so the problem behind the 0-2 start may be hard to fix. On the bright side, perhaps there is no problem at all with Wake Forest past two of their hardest games already.
QB Brett Hodges has been fairly efficient in 2007, but needs to cut out mistakes such as throwing into coverage late in games. Kenneth Moore leads the team in rushing and receiving yards after two games. Other skill players will need to step up considerably as teams begin to key in on Moore all game. As long as Wake Forest removes the turnovers and silly penalties from the first two games of the season, the Demon Deacons will be favored to win every game until November road trips to Virginia and Clemson. The loss to Boston College may not allow Wake to win the conference this season, but a January bowl game is still more than possible for these guys.
Iowa State – lost to Kent State 14-23, lost to Northern Iowa 13-24
When the Cyclones hired coach Gene Chizik in the offseason, many thought this team would come back and perhaps even become competitive in the weaker North half of the Big XII. After losses to the only two cupcakes on the schedule, Iowa State is in serious trouble already. The Cyclones lost to Kent State mostly due to critical turnovers at bad times. The Cyclones then lost to Northern Iowa while losing the turnover battle 0-4. Clearly Iowa State has been able to move the ball well and QB Bret Meyer is a strong passer. The problem comes in offensive mental mistakes and defensive breakdowns against opposing passing games.
With bigger, faster, and better teams coming in to Ames starting with the Iowa Hawkeyes this week, the Cyclones need to start by cutting the turnovers out. Whether it’s extra drills for the running backs or more film study for Meyer, the offense needs to stop putting a weak defense into big field position holes. On the defensive side of the ball, Iowa State has had trouble stopping anything at all. The defensive backfield has been burnt by both opposing quarterbacks, and the defensive front has graciously allowed two running backs to gain 130 yards in the first two games. If Iowa State is to be a spoiler and pull off any upsets in their tough schedule, the defense will need to step up and start playing better as a unit. The best advice here is to get one of those seniors on the defense to fire up the troops and lead by example. Coach Chizik just needs to focus on the week-by-week improvement at this point, as 2007 is a lost cause by the looks of it.
Notre Dame – lost to Georgia Tech 3-33, lost to Penn State 10-31
The one true axiom about Notre Dame football is that everything is exaggerated. Whether overrated or underrated, love ‘em or hate ‘em, the massive microscope hovering over South Bend makes the court of public opinion sway dramatically. Notre Dame truly has not belonged in BCS bowls in the first two years of Charlie Weis’ coaching, but Notre Dame did take care of business against every team not in the Top 10 in the country (USC, Michigan, Ohio State, LSU). Now that the great offensive stars are all gone to the pros, Notre Dame has received a large dose of reality in two bad losses. While the defense is not great by any means, that aspect of the Irish is actually not worse than the 10-2 teams of the past two seasons. The problem lies with the inexperienced offense.
After week one, the easy solution for Weis was to stop the silly quarterback carousel that was awful against the Yellow Jackets. Jimmy Clausen did not impress in his first start, but road games at Penn State make the best quarterbacks look very shaky (see Chad Henne and Troy Smith in 2005). Young quarterbacks need good rushing attacks to take the heat off, and Notre Dame has not done that with Armando Allen and Demetrius Jones so far (-8 yards rushing on the season total). Therefore Weis needs to focus more on the running game during this killer 8 game stretch to open up the passing lanes for Clausen. The great news is that Notre Dame gets Michigan, one of the worst defenses in college football for week 3. The bad news is that the Big Blue is looking for a statement victory after an abysmal start, so perhaps this is not the best week to catch Michigan. Assuming Clausen stays healthy until November, the back four games set up nicely as a lead-in for 2008. If Notre Dame manages to steal 2 of the next 6 games (highly unlikely), then a bowl season may not be out of reach yet.
The Sun Belt Conference – (0-13) in out-of-conference play so far
Where to begin? The worst conference in Division I-A continues to prove why all the big boys love to schedule them as the cupcakes. There’s no easy solution to the problems plaguing the teams of this conference, but mistakes and turnovers are another common theme. Perhaps the Sun Belt will begin to improve as the weeks go by, but someone in the league needs to start making a name for themselves outside conference play if the champion is to deserve any respect come bowl season.
While other teams have disappointed so far, these few above are the teams that must step it up in a hurry or risk having much worse seasons than each ever anticipated. Pleasant surprises include teams like Washington, Oregon, Cincinnati, South Florida, South Carolina, LSU, Clemson, and Georgia Tech. Out of the 120 Division I-A teams to start the season, two weeks has pared down the list of undefeated teams to 41. We will soon see how this list shrinks down to a very small number of national title contenders, perhaps even zero by the end of the season.
Another interesting slate of games for Week 3 leads to another great big three games of the week. With all due respect to Tennessee/Florida and Notre Dame/Michigan, first up is USC at Nebraska. Last year in Trojan-town this was a laugher, but do not expect the same thing to happen in Big XII territory. USC is clearly gifted with far better talent than the Cornhuskers, but the Trojans have quite a few tricky road games this season including this one. USC is coming off a bye week, so Nebraska must get off on the right foot and put the Trojans in a hole early to stick around. Inevitably John David Booty and his many weapons will put some points on the board. Nebraska proved they can win the tough close games against Wake Forest in week 2, but this one will not be close in the fourth quarter. USC by 17.
Our second game of the week, surprisingly, is Ohio State at Washington. Despite the fact that Florida and Tennessee are both nationally ranked, this game is a lot more compelling and features two undefeated teams (as well as the Top 10 team on the road). The Buckeyes looked absolutely sluggish in the rain against Akron before getting the wheels rolling, but their defense was rock solid (at one point getting 14 straight Akron 3-and-outs). The savior of the U-Dub program, freshman QB Jake Locker, has been beautifully efficient throwing for 175 yards per game. Locker has run for 167 yards and 3 TD so far as well, almost matching RB Louis Rankin with 192 yards and 3 TD. Ohio State historically struggles in road openers, especially on the West Coast. Turnovers could decide this game as Washington holds a +3 TO margin while the Buckeyes have started with a -5 TO margin, and mistakes always cost a team more on the road. While Washington has been very impressive while facing the toughest schedule in America, Locker and his offense have not faced anything remotely as good as the Buckeye defense. As long as OSU stops making early-season mistakes such as turnovers and penalties, the Buckeyes will escape Seattle with a 10 point victory. Big upset alert if OSU keeps turning it over.
The third game of the week is Boston College at Georgia Tech. This may be a preview of the ACC Championship considering how both teams have come out impressively, but BC has a brutal set of conference road games including this one and Virginia Tech, Maryland, and Clemson. The Eagles offense is very strong behind their leader QB Matt Ryan (275 yards per game). Georgia Tech blew by Notre Dame and Samford while running for more than 325 yards per game. Expect both defenses to be tested, but Georgia Tech is much better against the pass than BC is against the run. Georgia Tech at home is a tough out, and Boston College will be lucky to keep up. Closer than some expect, Georgia Tech wins by 4.
GOTW Record to Date: 4-2 (.666)
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 – Week 2
1. LSU (2-0)
2. USC (1-0)
3. Oklahoma (2-0)
4. West Virginia (2-0)
5. Wisconsin (2-0)
6. Texas (2-0)
7. California (2-0)
8. Louisville (2-0)
9. Ohio State (2-0)
10. Florida (2-0)
Just Missed: UCLA, Penn State, Rutgers, Georgia Tech, Nebraska
Have a good week!
Michigan – lost to Appalachian State 32-34, lost to Oregon 7-39
While eight Big Ten teams are 2-0 going into week three and the other two are 1-1, conference favorite Michigan stands at 0-2 all alone in last place. Embarrassed by being the first nationally ranked team to lose to a I-AA team in week 1, the Wolverines followed that up by getting blown out by the unranked Ducks in week 2. Michigan not only has been outplayed by two opponents with inferior overall talent, the Big Blue quit trying and lost all hope in the Oregon game. This set of circumstances has left most Michigan fans stunned and wondering why this has happened.
The majority of the problems come on the defensive end of the ball, where Michigan has not figured out in the past couple of seasons how to stop a wide-open offense with a mobile quarterback. Troy Smith led Ohio State to three straight wins over the Wolverines simply by leading many four or five wide receiver sets and being mobile enough to punish Michigan when they dropped into heavy pass coverage. The defensive recruiting classes have left a little to be desired the past three seasons, and even shaking things up by hiring Ron English as defensive coordinator has not solved the problem. If Michigan played in the Pac-10 this season, the Wolverines could look forward to 8-9 losses. Thankfully for the Maize and Blue, the Big Ten recruits athletes of a different style to survive the winter weather in northern states come October and November.
Michigan needs to at least slow wide-open offenses to allow a suddenly banged-up offense to keep up. Lloyd Carr needs to open up his playbook on both sides of the ball and experiment with new formations because anything is better than what they have right now. This problem has been brewing for a few years and may trickle down from recruits not staying in Michigan due to rumors of Coach Carr retiring soon. Carr needs to clarify his position or get out now in order to bring the Big Blue recruiting and football program back up to expectations. First things first, Michigan needs to take care of an absurdly weak Notre Dame team this week to gain some confidence going into a rough Big Ten opener against Penn State.
Syracuse – lost to Washington 12-42, lost to Iowa 0-35
While the Orange did expect another slow step in the rebuilding process in 2007, so far the indications are not even as good as expected. With every single other team in the Big East impressing at 2-0, Syracuse stands out as a team that could lose all 12 games if things keep on the same path. The only easy home game left is against Buffalo, as the Orange have to travel to Miami (OH), Pittsburgh, and Connecticut. Syracuse at 0-2 does not even compare to the shock of Michigan being there, but the disheartening thing is how lifeless Syracuse has played against mediocre BCS conference opponents.
In this case, the only cure for the problem might be time and experience, a hard thing to come by when recruiting only gets tougher as the program remains at the bottom of the conference. QB Andrew Robinson could help turn things around, but the offensive line needs to play better to give Robinson more time to make good reads downfield. Washington and Iowa have good defensive units, but that’s no excuse for both RB Curtis Brinkley and RB Derrell Smith to be averaging 2.2 yards per carry on 28 combined attempts. All of the Orange problems need to be solved up front on the offensive and defensive lines, and then Syracuse can worry about further developing skill players and a defensive backfield. The schedule is very front-loaded, so perhaps the Orange can be competitive in their final five games of the season.
Wake Forest – lost to Boston College 28-38, lost to Nebraska 17-20
Unlike the previous two teams, all hope is far from lost in the Demon Deacon camp after an 0-2 start. The defending ACC champions should have won one or both of their first two games of the season; however, both games were back-and-forth affairs that turned out badly in the fourth quarter for Wake. The Demon Deacons found ways to win every close game like this in 2006, so the problem behind the 0-2 start may be hard to fix. On the bright side, perhaps there is no problem at all with Wake Forest past two of their hardest games already.
QB Brett Hodges has been fairly efficient in 2007, but needs to cut out mistakes such as throwing into coverage late in games. Kenneth Moore leads the team in rushing and receiving yards after two games. Other skill players will need to step up considerably as teams begin to key in on Moore all game. As long as Wake Forest removes the turnovers and silly penalties from the first two games of the season, the Demon Deacons will be favored to win every game until November road trips to Virginia and Clemson. The loss to Boston College may not allow Wake to win the conference this season, but a January bowl game is still more than possible for these guys.
Iowa State – lost to Kent State 14-23, lost to Northern Iowa 13-24
When the Cyclones hired coach Gene Chizik in the offseason, many thought this team would come back and perhaps even become competitive in the weaker North half of the Big XII. After losses to the only two cupcakes on the schedule, Iowa State is in serious trouble already. The Cyclones lost to Kent State mostly due to critical turnovers at bad times. The Cyclones then lost to Northern Iowa while losing the turnover battle 0-4. Clearly Iowa State has been able to move the ball well and QB Bret Meyer is a strong passer. The problem comes in offensive mental mistakes and defensive breakdowns against opposing passing games.
With bigger, faster, and better teams coming in to Ames starting with the Iowa Hawkeyes this week, the Cyclones need to start by cutting the turnovers out. Whether it’s extra drills for the running backs or more film study for Meyer, the offense needs to stop putting a weak defense into big field position holes. On the defensive side of the ball, Iowa State has had trouble stopping anything at all. The defensive backfield has been burnt by both opposing quarterbacks, and the defensive front has graciously allowed two running backs to gain 130 yards in the first two games. If Iowa State is to be a spoiler and pull off any upsets in their tough schedule, the defense will need to step up and start playing better as a unit. The best advice here is to get one of those seniors on the defense to fire up the troops and lead by example. Coach Chizik just needs to focus on the week-by-week improvement at this point, as 2007 is a lost cause by the looks of it.
Notre Dame – lost to Georgia Tech 3-33, lost to Penn State 10-31
The one true axiom about Notre Dame football is that everything is exaggerated. Whether overrated or underrated, love ‘em or hate ‘em, the massive microscope hovering over South Bend makes the court of public opinion sway dramatically. Notre Dame truly has not belonged in BCS bowls in the first two years of Charlie Weis’ coaching, but Notre Dame did take care of business against every team not in the Top 10 in the country (USC, Michigan, Ohio State, LSU). Now that the great offensive stars are all gone to the pros, Notre Dame has received a large dose of reality in two bad losses. While the defense is not great by any means, that aspect of the Irish is actually not worse than the 10-2 teams of the past two seasons. The problem lies with the inexperienced offense.
After week one, the easy solution for Weis was to stop the silly quarterback carousel that was awful against the Yellow Jackets. Jimmy Clausen did not impress in his first start, but road games at Penn State make the best quarterbacks look very shaky (see Chad Henne and Troy Smith in 2005). Young quarterbacks need good rushing attacks to take the heat off, and Notre Dame has not done that with Armando Allen and Demetrius Jones so far (-8 yards rushing on the season total). Therefore Weis needs to focus more on the running game during this killer 8 game stretch to open up the passing lanes for Clausen. The great news is that Notre Dame gets Michigan, one of the worst defenses in college football for week 3. The bad news is that the Big Blue is looking for a statement victory after an abysmal start, so perhaps this is not the best week to catch Michigan. Assuming Clausen stays healthy until November, the back four games set up nicely as a lead-in for 2008. If Notre Dame manages to steal 2 of the next 6 games (highly unlikely), then a bowl season may not be out of reach yet.
The Sun Belt Conference – (0-13) in out-of-conference play so far
Where to begin? The worst conference in Division I-A continues to prove why all the big boys love to schedule them as the cupcakes. There’s no easy solution to the problems plaguing the teams of this conference, but mistakes and turnovers are another common theme. Perhaps the Sun Belt will begin to improve as the weeks go by, but someone in the league needs to start making a name for themselves outside conference play if the champion is to deserve any respect come bowl season.
While other teams have disappointed so far, these few above are the teams that must step it up in a hurry or risk having much worse seasons than each ever anticipated. Pleasant surprises include teams like Washington, Oregon, Cincinnati, South Florida, South Carolina, LSU, Clemson, and Georgia Tech. Out of the 120 Division I-A teams to start the season, two weeks has pared down the list of undefeated teams to 41. We will soon see how this list shrinks down to a very small number of national title contenders, perhaps even zero by the end of the season.
Another interesting slate of games for Week 3 leads to another great big three games of the week. With all due respect to Tennessee/Florida and Notre Dame/Michigan, first up is USC at Nebraska. Last year in Trojan-town this was a laugher, but do not expect the same thing to happen in Big XII territory. USC is clearly gifted with far better talent than the Cornhuskers, but the Trojans have quite a few tricky road games this season including this one. USC is coming off a bye week, so Nebraska must get off on the right foot and put the Trojans in a hole early to stick around. Inevitably John David Booty and his many weapons will put some points on the board. Nebraska proved they can win the tough close games against Wake Forest in week 2, but this one will not be close in the fourth quarter. USC by 17.
Our second game of the week, surprisingly, is Ohio State at Washington. Despite the fact that Florida and Tennessee are both nationally ranked, this game is a lot more compelling and features two undefeated teams (as well as the Top 10 team on the road). The Buckeyes looked absolutely sluggish in the rain against Akron before getting the wheels rolling, but their defense was rock solid (at one point getting 14 straight Akron 3-and-outs). The savior of the U-Dub program, freshman QB Jake Locker, has been beautifully efficient throwing for 175 yards per game. Locker has run for 167 yards and 3 TD so far as well, almost matching RB Louis Rankin with 192 yards and 3 TD. Ohio State historically struggles in road openers, especially on the West Coast. Turnovers could decide this game as Washington holds a +3 TO margin while the Buckeyes have started with a -5 TO margin, and mistakes always cost a team more on the road. While Washington has been very impressive while facing the toughest schedule in America, Locker and his offense have not faced anything remotely as good as the Buckeye defense. As long as OSU stops making early-season mistakes such as turnovers and penalties, the Buckeyes will escape Seattle with a 10 point victory. Big upset alert if OSU keeps turning it over.
The third game of the week is Boston College at Georgia Tech. This may be a preview of the ACC Championship considering how both teams have come out impressively, but BC has a brutal set of conference road games including this one and Virginia Tech, Maryland, and Clemson. The Eagles offense is very strong behind their leader QB Matt Ryan (275 yards per game). Georgia Tech blew by Notre Dame and Samford while running for more than 325 yards per game. Expect both defenses to be tested, but Georgia Tech is much better against the pass than BC is against the run. Georgia Tech at home is a tough out, and Boston College will be lucky to keep up. Closer than some expect, Georgia Tech wins by 4.
GOTW Record to Date: 4-2 (.666)
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 – Week 2
1. LSU (2-0)
2. USC (1-0)
3. Oklahoma (2-0)
4. West Virginia (2-0)
5. Wisconsin (2-0)
6. Texas (2-0)
7. California (2-0)
8. Louisville (2-0)
9. Ohio State (2-0)
10. Florida (2-0)
Just Missed: UCLA, Penn State, Rutgers, Georgia Tech, Nebraska
Have a good week!
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
Buying Wins? The I-AA Opponent Debate
It was inevitable. At some point in all these Division I-A teams scheduling I-AA opponents for a 12th game, a big fish was finally going to fall. College football is so unpredictable that the Appalachian State-Michigan game was inevitable. For Wolverine fans it might be hard to swallow right now, but there is no doubt some other school would have fallen to a I-AA school eventually. It is just probability, but nevertheless now is a good time to review the practice of scheduling I-AA teams or “buying wins.”
First as an issues writer I cannot help but pitch in my opinion on the new naming system for college football divisions. While I-A and I-AA do not really mesh well with Divisions II and III below, that is a much better fit than FBS and FCS as the new division names. While major media will try their best to adopt the new terminology, I’m going to spend the remainder of this article and probably this year calling the lower division I-AA. If Division I-A eventually becomes a plus one system or playoff, will we still call it the FBS despite the bowl system becoming a secondary consideration in a playoff world? Changing the terminology is just silly. The proper thing to do would be to call I-A just simply Division I, I-AA becomes Division II, and the other divisions move down a number. There’s no truly justifiable reason to avoid this outcome, as nobody argues that the different divisions have a whole different caliber of football teams. For the time being, it’s going to be I-A and I-AA in this column.
When college football officially moved to a 12-game schedule recently, the idea was that more major conference teams could now have the flexibility to schedule bigger out-of-conference opponents and inter-regional rivalries would develop. Most schools just added another cupcake to the schedule. Whether the cupcake consists of a non-BCS conference school or a I-AA school, the concept is the same. The bigger teams bring in the smaller schools for a free win or tune-up game, and the smaller school gets a little national exposure and a nice paycheck. These smaller teams can make their athletic department’s day simply by accepting half a million dollars from one of these major schools for one of these games. There’s no downside for schools like Appalachian State or Youngstown State because their athletic department gets much needed capital, their players get an experience of a lifetime, and a blowout loss is not embarrassing against the top teams in I-A. It seemed like a win-win from that perspective.
While one can applaud these bigger schools for helping keep the smaller schools’ athletic departments afloat with these games, the dark side appears when looking at the big schools scheduling these games. The fans of these bigger schools have no reason to get excited about paying full ticket prices for these games against cupcakes that mean absolutely nothing, assuming the bigger school takes care of business on the field. Take this example from an Ohio State fan (when not writing on here) – the 2006 regular season was one of the worst and most boring seasons for going to all the home games because the Buckeyes blew out every single outclassed opponent until Michigan came to town (and that game is always compelling anyway). While it is nice to cheer for your team when they are winning, I feel as a fan that you get so much more out of your season tickets when the opponents are more competitive. The drama of needing to step up and play well or come from behind can make some of the most memorable experiences in the stadium. Even had the Buckeyes not fallen apart against Florida in January, the 2006 season could not hold a candle to the experience of the 2002 national championship season. The primary reason being that every week in 2002 was edge-of-your-seat excitement, drama, and BCS debate, while 2006 was just a boring wire-to-wire run with blowouts every week.
There’s more than just the competition and fan excitement factor weighing against big schools accepting these games. Even though the BCS system has been adjusted to the point where computer rankings mean very little, strength of schedule is something even the human pollsters take into account. While many teams have decided to schedule these I-AA or lesser opponents, others have followed the spirit of adding the 12th game in order to renew inter-regional or old rivalries or adding another premiere game to the schedule. This pays huge dividends when comparing very close one-loss teams when deciding who should play for the national title. Although Washington is a long-shot to go 12-1 this season, they would almost certainly beat out even SEC one-loss teams in a debate over who should play in the BCS Championship game (non-conference schedule is at Syracuse, at Hawaii, and home against Boise State and Ohio State). While this schedule is a bit rougher than should be expected, the Huskies should be applauded for trying to schedule high-quality opponents instead of I-AA teams or free wins.
There are of course many more variables to consider in this debate, but keep in mind that certain “cupcake” games are desirable to keep local college rivalries going. Ohio State puts an emphasis on playing 2-3 Ohio schools since there are so many of them in I-A, and the glut of Big Ten versus MAC games is not necessarily a bad thing. Those games can be kept because the non-BCS conferences should be able to play a couple of games each season against the big boys. The concern is those schedules with no justification for having 4 out-of-conference cupcakes including I-AA teams other than wanting more home games or more chances to make a bowl game.
So the issue comes down to this: do the reasons for scheduling these I-AA opponents outweigh those reasons against? After the Michigan loss this weekend, perhaps this debate will work itself out as teams become cautionary about scheduling I-AA opponents every year. As many of the I-AA schools benefit greatly from the opportunity and cash flow, I simply cannot object to regional or in-state games such as Youngstown State versus Ohio State. If a major conference team schedules one of these games, I think the athletic department needs to go out of its way to schedule 2 BCS-conference opponents or 2 high quality opponents (such as Boise State, TCU, or Hawaii) to make up for this game. That seems only fair to the fans buying season tickets and to the pollsters trying to evaluate how good of a team you are and how good your league really is. One thing is for sure – nobody will take the best teams of I-AA as lightly as Michigan did this past weekend. The era of free wins is finally over, and now is the time to see which direction the big school athletic departments go in the next five years in scheduling these I-AA schools.
Despite my views on I-AA games, nothing should take away from Appalachian State’s accomplishment on Saturday. The Wolverines did not show up ready to play for sure, but the fact still remains that the Mountaineers outplayed the Wolverines in almost every aspect of the game for the entire contest. A team led by strong senior personalities like Mike Hart and Chad Henne should have known better. Appalachian State would have beaten many I-A teams with their effort and quality of play on Saturday, but that should not be a reason to keep Michigan ranked.
In the words of Earl Pitts, WAKE UP AMERICA! Keeping Michigan in your top 25 is an absolute joke to ranking systems everywhere right now. Appalachian State might be the two-time defending national champion in I-AA, but every good team that has made the jump to I-A ends up on the fringes of the Top 25 at best over time. Michigan should not lose home games to the likes of this, and there’s absolutely, positively, definitively NO WAY Michigan gets any consideration for the BCS Championship game for the rest of 2007. Every team in the rankings after week 1 should at least be in the conversation for the national title, and a team that cannot make it in even by winning out is no better than Boise State last year. Sure, Michigan will go to a Rose Bowl at 11-1 - but they have shown nothing that indicates the Wolverines deserve a top 25 spot. I think top 25 votes should be fluid in the early season as the body of work each team presents can change dramatically from week to week, but many of my colleagues would disagree. Therefore you will not find Michigan in my top 25 this week because they would not make my top 50 this week.
Moving to another issue entirely, I would like to briefly speak about the Big Ten Network and the battle raging with cable companies in my area and other parts of Big Ten country. This showdown is important because other BCS conferences will certainly follow the NFL and Big Ten in making their own cable networks if these two are successful. Money and TV contracts are a powerful draw, as evidenced by Notre Dame’s refusal of all attempts to get them to join the Big Ten. Here’s the facts for those not following the situation: the Big Ten network insists on being included in a standard cable package instead of a specialty sports package (like the NFL network), but BTN expects cable companies in Big Ten states to pay $1.10 per customer per month for the service while charging out-of-conference states $0.10 per customer per month for the same service. This rate in Big Ten states is higher than many networks people consider crucial to the standard cable package (such as Headline News, MTV, ESPN, and Comedy Central).
While one of the big three cable companies and DirectTV caved into the BTN demands, the largest two cable companies in the region have not. Both sides are vigorously running television advertisements soliciting customers to call in and support their side of the argument. The fact of the matter is that BTN is being completely unfair by taking away games that used to be carried by local networks and ABC/ESPN. If BTN were asking a reasonable royalty for their niche network (outside of football games, those who want to watch BTN are a small number) or willing to be put on a special sports package, that would be OK. The problem is that if every conference does this, then all the fans at home lose because all those games of the hometown teams will be snatched away unless you pay extra money. For those Big Ten fans outside the Big Ten market, this development is great because you can save money by ordering BTN instead of ESPN Gameplan (which costs much more for a season subscription). If you are a general college football fan, you have to be worried that all these conferences will make their own networks and cut out ESPN/ABC, which leads to you paying much more to get access to the same games you could get for one low price under ESPN Gameplan. I cannot condone either the NFL network or BTN for taking games out of view in order to make more money, as that alienates their fan bases. Please support those cable companies holding out against the BTN, as this battle may lead to disastrous future consequences for the entire nation of college football fans.
If I do not stop complaining, I suppose there will be nothing to talk about next week. Therefore it is high time we move on to the three games of the week, my top 10 rankings, and the good parts of college football. One final note is that while it was great to watch college football come back around the country, the end of the cycle of healing for Virginia Tech’s community marked by the Hokies running out onto the football field was a beautiful thing to witness. As I said last week, it is moments like these that make college football the best sport in America. Welcome back to some modicum of normalcy Virginia Tech, and may there never be another tragedy like that on your campus or any other in the future.
While there are a number of games that just missed the cut this week (namely, Nebraska at Wake Forest, Oregon at Michigan, and Notre Dame at Penn State), Week 2 brings much more excitement overall than Week 1’s slate did. The first game of the week is Miami at Oklahoma. Both of these teams broke in new quarterbacks last week, and the results could not have been more different. Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford was an astounding 21-23 passing for 363 yards, while Miami’s Kirby Freeman struggled to 9-21 passing for only 81 yards. Miami is a much better team already under coach Randy Shannon than they have been the past 2-3 years, including a much more potent offense behind the rushing duo Graig Cooper and Javarris James. Oklahoma will likely rise to the challenge defensively, but the Hurricanes are eager to get a big road win for their new coach to turn things around. This game stays closer than most expect through the fourth quarter, but Oklahoma pulls away late by 14.
The second game of the week is TCU at Texas. This game was already intriguing as a matchup between one of the three best non-BCS programs and a BCS national title contender. Boise State proved those schools can beat the Big XII leaders last season, and TCU is a legitimate threat to the Longhorns. The Horned Frogs defense is a stingy unit with many returning starters from last year, and the Longhorns will need to play much better than they did against Arkansas State to score on TCU. Texas has far more talent and will be playing on the home field in Austin, but TCU appears to have all the right ingredients for a big upset. Texas plays much better than last week but still suffers a 4 point loss at home to TCU.
The final game of the week is the best game in the whole month of September, Virginia Tech at LSU. These two teams have helped two of the bigger campuses in America overcome terrible tragedies of the past two years. LSU appears to be one of the best two teams in America after dismantling Mississippi State last week, while Virginia Tech had trouble dispatching East Carolina at home. The Hokies will probably get back on track this week away from the emotion at home, but the hardest team on Tech’s schedule will make truly getting on track offensively very difficult. LSU QB Matt Flynn will test the Hokie defense with his arm as well as his running ability. A week or two down the road Virginia Tech might have what it takes to pull this off, but even with all the emotion behind them, it will be almost impossible to beat LSU at their place. LSU by 21.
GOTW Record to Date: 2-1 (.666)
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 – Week 1
1. USC (1-0)
2. LSU (1-0)
3. Wisconsin (1-0)
4. Louisville (1-0)
5. Oklahoma (1-0)
6. Ohio State (1-0)
7. West Virginia (1-0)
8. Miami (1-0)
9. California (1-0)
10. Georgia (1-0)
Just Missed: UCLA, Florida, Penn State, Rutgers, Texas
Until next week, have a good time poking fun at the poor Wolverines, Fighting Irish, and Seminoles. Time will tell if those programs can recover from devastating opening losses, or if 2007 will be a hot seat year for Charlie Weis, Lloyd Carr, and Bobby Bowden. It’s funny that everyone thought Joe Paterno was the old coach losing his touch 3 years ago, but now he’s the one winning 10+ games a year, while FSU struggles to keep up in the ACC. That’s a discussion for another time. See you next week!
First as an issues writer I cannot help but pitch in my opinion on the new naming system for college football divisions. While I-A and I-AA do not really mesh well with Divisions II and III below, that is a much better fit than FBS and FCS as the new division names. While major media will try their best to adopt the new terminology, I’m going to spend the remainder of this article and probably this year calling the lower division I-AA. If Division I-A eventually becomes a plus one system or playoff, will we still call it the FBS despite the bowl system becoming a secondary consideration in a playoff world? Changing the terminology is just silly. The proper thing to do would be to call I-A just simply Division I, I-AA becomes Division II, and the other divisions move down a number. There’s no truly justifiable reason to avoid this outcome, as nobody argues that the different divisions have a whole different caliber of football teams. For the time being, it’s going to be I-A and I-AA in this column.
When college football officially moved to a 12-game schedule recently, the idea was that more major conference teams could now have the flexibility to schedule bigger out-of-conference opponents and inter-regional rivalries would develop. Most schools just added another cupcake to the schedule. Whether the cupcake consists of a non-BCS conference school or a I-AA school, the concept is the same. The bigger teams bring in the smaller schools for a free win or tune-up game, and the smaller school gets a little national exposure and a nice paycheck. These smaller teams can make their athletic department’s day simply by accepting half a million dollars from one of these major schools for one of these games. There’s no downside for schools like Appalachian State or Youngstown State because their athletic department gets much needed capital, their players get an experience of a lifetime, and a blowout loss is not embarrassing against the top teams in I-A. It seemed like a win-win from that perspective.
While one can applaud these bigger schools for helping keep the smaller schools’ athletic departments afloat with these games, the dark side appears when looking at the big schools scheduling these games. The fans of these bigger schools have no reason to get excited about paying full ticket prices for these games against cupcakes that mean absolutely nothing, assuming the bigger school takes care of business on the field. Take this example from an Ohio State fan (when not writing on here) – the 2006 regular season was one of the worst and most boring seasons for going to all the home games because the Buckeyes blew out every single outclassed opponent until Michigan came to town (and that game is always compelling anyway). While it is nice to cheer for your team when they are winning, I feel as a fan that you get so much more out of your season tickets when the opponents are more competitive. The drama of needing to step up and play well or come from behind can make some of the most memorable experiences in the stadium. Even had the Buckeyes not fallen apart against Florida in January, the 2006 season could not hold a candle to the experience of the 2002 national championship season. The primary reason being that every week in 2002 was edge-of-your-seat excitement, drama, and BCS debate, while 2006 was just a boring wire-to-wire run with blowouts every week.
There’s more than just the competition and fan excitement factor weighing against big schools accepting these games. Even though the BCS system has been adjusted to the point where computer rankings mean very little, strength of schedule is something even the human pollsters take into account. While many teams have decided to schedule these I-AA or lesser opponents, others have followed the spirit of adding the 12th game in order to renew inter-regional or old rivalries or adding another premiere game to the schedule. This pays huge dividends when comparing very close one-loss teams when deciding who should play for the national title. Although Washington is a long-shot to go 12-1 this season, they would almost certainly beat out even SEC one-loss teams in a debate over who should play in the BCS Championship game (non-conference schedule is at Syracuse, at Hawaii, and home against Boise State and Ohio State). While this schedule is a bit rougher than should be expected, the Huskies should be applauded for trying to schedule high-quality opponents instead of I-AA teams or free wins.
There are of course many more variables to consider in this debate, but keep in mind that certain “cupcake” games are desirable to keep local college rivalries going. Ohio State puts an emphasis on playing 2-3 Ohio schools since there are so many of them in I-A, and the glut of Big Ten versus MAC games is not necessarily a bad thing. Those games can be kept because the non-BCS conferences should be able to play a couple of games each season against the big boys. The concern is those schedules with no justification for having 4 out-of-conference cupcakes including I-AA teams other than wanting more home games or more chances to make a bowl game.
So the issue comes down to this: do the reasons for scheduling these I-AA opponents outweigh those reasons against? After the Michigan loss this weekend, perhaps this debate will work itself out as teams become cautionary about scheduling I-AA opponents every year. As many of the I-AA schools benefit greatly from the opportunity and cash flow, I simply cannot object to regional or in-state games such as Youngstown State versus Ohio State. If a major conference team schedules one of these games, I think the athletic department needs to go out of its way to schedule 2 BCS-conference opponents or 2 high quality opponents (such as Boise State, TCU, or Hawaii) to make up for this game. That seems only fair to the fans buying season tickets and to the pollsters trying to evaluate how good of a team you are and how good your league really is. One thing is for sure – nobody will take the best teams of I-AA as lightly as Michigan did this past weekend. The era of free wins is finally over, and now is the time to see which direction the big school athletic departments go in the next five years in scheduling these I-AA schools.
Despite my views on I-AA games, nothing should take away from Appalachian State’s accomplishment on Saturday. The Wolverines did not show up ready to play for sure, but the fact still remains that the Mountaineers outplayed the Wolverines in almost every aspect of the game for the entire contest. A team led by strong senior personalities like Mike Hart and Chad Henne should have known better. Appalachian State would have beaten many I-A teams with their effort and quality of play on Saturday, but that should not be a reason to keep Michigan ranked.
In the words of Earl Pitts, WAKE UP AMERICA! Keeping Michigan in your top 25 is an absolute joke to ranking systems everywhere right now. Appalachian State might be the two-time defending national champion in I-AA, but every good team that has made the jump to I-A ends up on the fringes of the Top 25 at best over time. Michigan should not lose home games to the likes of this, and there’s absolutely, positively, definitively NO WAY Michigan gets any consideration for the BCS Championship game for the rest of 2007. Every team in the rankings after week 1 should at least be in the conversation for the national title, and a team that cannot make it in even by winning out is no better than Boise State last year. Sure, Michigan will go to a Rose Bowl at 11-1 - but they have shown nothing that indicates the Wolverines deserve a top 25 spot. I think top 25 votes should be fluid in the early season as the body of work each team presents can change dramatically from week to week, but many of my colleagues would disagree. Therefore you will not find Michigan in my top 25 this week because they would not make my top 50 this week.
Moving to another issue entirely, I would like to briefly speak about the Big Ten Network and the battle raging with cable companies in my area and other parts of Big Ten country. This showdown is important because other BCS conferences will certainly follow the NFL and Big Ten in making their own cable networks if these two are successful. Money and TV contracts are a powerful draw, as evidenced by Notre Dame’s refusal of all attempts to get them to join the Big Ten. Here’s the facts for those not following the situation: the Big Ten network insists on being included in a standard cable package instead of a specialty sports package (like the NFL network), but BTN expects cable companies in Big Ten states to pay $1.10 per customer per month for the service while charging out-of-conference states $0.10 per customer per month for the same service. This rate in Big Ten states is higher than many networks people consider crucial to the standard cable package (such as Headline News, MTV, ESPN, and Comedy Central).
While one of the big three cable companies and DirectTV caved into the BTN demands, the largest two cable companies in the region have not. Both sides are vigorously running television advertisements soliciting customers to call in and support their side of the argument. The fact of the matter is that BTN is being completely unfair by taking away games that used to be carried by local networks and ABC/ESPN. If BTN were asking a reasonable royalty for their niche network (outside of football games, those who want to watch BTN are a small number) or willing to be put on a special sports package, that would be OK. The problem is that if every conference does this, then all the fans at home lose because all those games of the hometown teams will be snatched away unless you pay extra money. For those Big Ten fans outside the Big Ten market, this development is great because you can save money by ordering BTN instead of ESPN Gameplan (which costs much more for a season subscription). If you are a general college football fan, you have to be worried that all these conferences will make their own networks and cut out ESPN/ABC, which leads to you paying much more to get access to the same games you could get for one low price under ESPN Gameplan. I cannot condone either the NFL network or BTN for taking games out of view in order to make more money, as that alienates their fan bases. Please support those cable companies holding out against the BTN, as this battle may lead to disastrous future consequences for the entire nation of college football fans.
If I do not stop complaining, I suppose there will be nothing to talk about next week. Therefore it is high time we move on to the three games of the week, my top 10 rankings, and the good parts of college football. One final note is that while it was great to watch college football come back around the country, the end of the cycle of healing for Virginia Tech’s community marked by the Hokies running out onto the football field was a beautiful thing to witness. As I said last week, it is moments like these that make college football the best sport in America. Welcome back to some modicum of normalcy Virginia Tech, and may there never be another tragedy like that on your campus or any other in the future.
While there are a number of games that just missed the cut this week (namely, Nebraska at Wake Forest, Oregon at Michigan, and Notre Dame at Penn State), Week 2 brings much more excitement overall than Week 1’s slate did. The first game of the week is Miami at Oklahoma. Both of these teams broke in new quarterbacks last week, and the results could not have been more different. Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford was an astounding 21-23 passing for 363 yards, while Miami’s Kirby Freeman struggled to 9-21 passing for only 81 yards. Miami is a much better team already under coach Randy Shannon than they have been the past 2-3 years, including a much more potent offense behind the rushing duo Graig Cooper and Javarris James. Oklahoma will likely rise to the challenge defensively, but the Hurricanes are eager to get a big road win for their new coach to turn things around. This game stays closer than most expect through the fourth quarter, but Oklahoma pulls away late by 14.
The second game of the week is TCU at Texas. This game was already intriguing as a matchup between one of the three best non-BCS programs and a BCS national title contender. Boise State proved those schools can beat the Big XII leaders last season, and TCU is a legitimate threat to the Longhorns. The Horned Frogs defense is a stingy unit with many returning starters from last year, and the Longhorns will need to play much better than they did against Arkansas State to score on TCU. Texas has far more talent and will be playing on the home field in Austin, but TCU appears to have all the right ingredients for a big upset. Texas plays much better than last week but still suffers a 4 point loss at home to TCU.
The final game of the week is the best game in the whole month of September, Virginia Tech at LSU. These two teams have helped two of the bigger campuses in America overcome terrible tragedies of the past two years. LSU appears to be one of the best two teams in America after dismantling Mississippi State last week, while Virginia Tech had trouble dispatching East Carolina at home. The Hokies will probably get back on track this week away from the emotion at home, but the hardest team on Tech’s schedule will make truly getting on track offensively very difficult. LSU QB Matt Flynn will test the Hokie defense with his arm as well as his running ability. A week or two down the road Virginia Tech might have what it takes to pull this off, but even with all the emotion behind them, it will be almost impossible to beat LSU at their place. LSU by 21.
GOTW Record to Date: 2-1 (.666)
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 – Week 1
1. USC (1-0)
2. LSU (1-0)
3. Wisconsin (1-0)
4. Louisville (1-0)
5. Oklahoma (1-0)
6. Ohio State (1-0)
7. West Virginia (1-0)
8. Miami (1-0)
9. California (1-0)
10. Georgia (1-0)
Just Missed: UCLA, Florida, Penn State, Rutgers, Texas
Until next week, have a good time poking fun at the poor Wolverines, Fighting Irish, and Seminoles. Time will tell if those programs can recover from devastating opening losses, or if 2007 will be a hot seat year for Charlie Weis, Lloyd Carr, and Bobby Bowden. It’s funny that everyone thought Joe Paterno was the old coach losing his touch 3 years ago, but now he’s the one winning 10+ games a year, while FSU struggles to keep up in the ACC. That’s a discussion for another time. See you next week!
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