When the calendar switched to this month of October, a slight chill was in the air. Now we arrive at the last weekend of October, a Halloween Saturday full of college football as we enter the stretch run. The seven remaining undefeated teams can see the finish line, and most have what appear to be easy schedules to close the season. However, almost every contender has one or two major tests left, and nobody knows what will happen on a week to week basis. Penn State looked like a lock for the BCS Championship last season with three games left on the schedule, but the Nittany Lions were derailed by a trick in Iowa City. If there's anything October has proven, it's that all the title contenders are vulnerable every week, no matter where they go. What can be expected this Halloween? Lots of drama if nothing else.
This week some old pro football veterans are testifying in front of Congress about the perils of playing football, as many old veterans are fighting brain problems such as dementia. Player safety has increased by leaps and bounds in the past 30 years, but there's no denying concussions happen and are dangerous. What compounds the problem is subjecting players to recurring injuries. Although the concussion Tim Tebow suffered has luckily not happened again, but he also has not been himself since coming back a mere 14 days after the injury. Sam Bradford was not so lucky, reinjuring his shoulder in the game against Texas and quickly ending the other Heisman winner's season. While Heisman Trophies and national championships are nice, coaches have to be more concerned about the futures of these young men. This season, I don't think that has been the primary concern. Let's hope tebow and other athletes who got rushed back from injuries don't lose much more than a chance at awards.
Although four of the five teams everyone expected to be in the national title mix still remain there, the real surprise has been the list of other contenders. Who would've guessed Oregon would bounce back so nicely from the debacle in Boise to being favored to knock USC out of the Pac-10 race for the first time since 2000? Furthermore, who had Iowa and Cincinnati on their national championship radar a month ago? While TCU and Boise State are not too surprising so far, the fact that they both could end up in BCS bowls is a scenario every college football fan should love. With a little over a month left to go in the season, it's unclear whether the pack of paupers or the pack of royalty will end up in Pasadena in January. While dominant dynasties have provided some good BCS Championship games, it would be nice to see the little guys finally have their day. Either way, there will certainly be a treat in January this year as the Granddaddy of them all hosts not one but two major bowl games.
Here's a Halloween conundrum: why is parity in the SEC seen as a sign of strength while parity everywhere else means the conferences are mediocre? Ohio State and USC have been perfect case studies of what happens when one team dominates a league for a decade, and you'd expect better results than one national championship apiece. Both do have positive bowl records, but there's certainly something to be said for being truly tested for many weeks in the year. However, the SEC has been getting the benefit of the doubt without deserving it this season, as the conference has as much parity as the Big XII, the Big Ten, and the Pac-10. Florida and Alabama stand undefeated, but more because of poor officiating and chokes by the middle-tier teams rather than them overcoming adversity. After watching week after week of bad offenses and mediocre defenses, I think it is time to question if this is the year the SEC will go down in flames for a bowl season. There's still more talent down in those programs than anywhere else, but the more they play, the more I believe a one-loss SEC team should not get the benefit of the doubt created by Florida and LSU.
Speaking of the SEC, thanks for finally recognizing that the officiating crew who botched the Georgia-LSU game is not up to par for the best conference in college football. Although Arkansas should overcome adversity, they can get in line behind Georgia in the "we got robbed" line. A one week suspension is a drastic move for a conference who denies wrongdoing like it's going out of style. Still, the conference should fire some of that crew if not all of them. I'm not one to call for people's heads usually, especially in this economy, but honestly there has to be some accountability for your job performance and the atrocious SEC officiating has to get better somehow. So while I appreciate the gesture, it is an irrelevant one if bigger changes are not made this offseason.
Speaking of one game suspensions, anyone who stuck around the Ohio State versus Minnesota game was treated to one of those rare moments when a broadcaster sticks his foot so far into his mouth he chokes on it. Once OSU had taken over, the crew started talking about how Jimmy Johnson was poised to continue his dominance in the NASCAR championship races, and the top 5 driver standings was listed. Chris Spielman asked where did Juan Pablo Montoya go, and Bob Greise responded with "out having a taco." Now Greise apologized multiple times for the mistake, but the one week suspension came down from ABC and ESPN. Greise is not one of the more flamboyant broadcasters, so to hear him make a joke like that is unexpected. However, I think we're going overboard on this one. When the game is out of hand, broadcasters are expected to fill space while keeping an audience's attention. I don't think Greise meant any disrespect to any races or nationalities, and the comment was not all that bad. Montoya has fallen off the face of the earth seemingly as the Hendrick drivers take over that championship hunt, and there's got to be some way to overcome the overly PC culture in a broadcast booth. If we cannot let the small stuff off our shoulders, then we might as well have robots calling the games.
One thing that is becoming conspicuously absent this season is an early coach firing. Normally someone throws a coach on the curb and we can debate if it's proper to do so in October. However, nobody has pulled the trigger yet. Kudos to the athletic departments in FBS for sticking to their guns and seeing how things end up before firing someone prematurely. You never know when a coach and a team with their backs against the wall will recover to score a big upset or turn a season around. The seat is still plenty hot in places like Champaign and Louisville, but it's nice to not have that sort of controversy to discuss this October. Enough tricks and treats, let's get into the a great slate of Top 3 games.
The first game of the week may have lost a little luster, but it's still a party. A cocktail party, that is, as Georgia visits Jacksonville for the annual battle with Florida. The Gators have not looked like the same team since Tebow was injured at Kentucky the last week of September, and the offense cannot afford to keep sputtering down the stretch in the SEC. Florida has churned up a lot of yards on the ground, led by Tebow and RB Jeffery Demps. Georgia has struggled on defense this season, giving up more points than the Bulldogs have scored. However, the Bulldogs should be up for the rivalry and may be able to give their offense a real shot against the best unit on the field, the Gator defense. QB Joe Cox has had to carry too much of the offense so far this season, so he will need serious help from RB Richard Samuel. The way Florida has been playing, a rivalry game is just the kind of trap game that could derail the national championship path. However, expect the Gators to dominate with defense and the running game, winning comfortably for the first time all month by 17.
The buildup to the last time Texas played against a team from Oklahoma, the anticipation was overblown as the Longhorns struggled but still passed a mediocre Oklahoma squad. This week finds the Horns on the road in a primetime matchup with Oklahoma State, who appears to be the last hurdle to the Big XII South division title. QB colt McCoy leads a dangerous passing attack, but look for the OSU secondary to really step up and force McCoy to make some mistakes. Oklahoma State also has a good passing game behind QB Zac Robinson, but the loss of WR Dez Bryant for the season will certainly slow the Cowboys a bit. Each of these teams ranks among the nation's elite at converting in the red zone, so the key will be which defense can step up and make a crucial stop or two. Last year those stops in the fourth quarter were made by the Longhorns. This year, it will be the Cowboys making those stops. OSU knocks Texas out of the national title picture for now with a 3 point upset.
The top game of the week is a battle between arguably the best two one-loss teams in America, as USC visits Oregon. The Trojans have played a game of survive and advance with the exception of the slip up in Seattle, as freshman QB Matt Barkley has been prone to making some mistakes. Although Autzen stadium is certainly one of the hardest places to play, don't expect Barkley to be rattled after surviving a record crowd in Columbus in his second collegiate start. The task will be tough though as Oregon has been sharp on defense all year and will thrive off the crowd to step up and stop the Trojan playmaker running backs Joe McKnight and Allen Bradford. On the other side of the ball, USC is looking suspect on defense for the first time since Pete Carroll's first season. This could be the game this unit gets fully exposed, as Oregon is very familiar with USC and knows how to use dual threat QB Jeremiah Masoli and freshman RB LaMichael James to their best potential. Look for Oregon to dominate the clock with long drives that will fire up the crowd and the defense, sparking an unexpected blowout to end USC's reign in the Pac-10. Ducks by 17.
2009 GOTW Record: 14-10
Last Week: 3-0
Fitz Top 10 - Week 8
1. Texas
2. Alabama
3. Florida
4. Iowa
5. Cincinnati
6. TCU
7. Boise State
8. USC
9. Oregon
10. Penn State
Just Missed: Georgia Tech, LSU, Oklahoma State, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech
Well the national title chase is something to continue following and discussing, but we are down to the point in the year where it's really a 10 team sort of derby. What involves many more teams is the conference championship races. Next week we'll take a look at who remains standing in all the battles that matter every single season. Will USC and Ohio State be able to continue their dominating runs, or will new teams finally lead their way to Pasadena for the Rose Bowl festivities? We'll see you next week.
Thursday, October 29, 2009
Thursday, October 22, 2009
BCS Standings Set the Stage for Home Stretch
The third weekend of October heralds the midpoint of the college football season for most teams, but it also heralds the scourge of college football fans: The BCS Standings. On the bright side, the endless amounts of debate the BCS brings is a welcome starting point for any discussion. While there is an absolute ton of football left to be played, the battle lines for the BCS Championship and the path to Pasadena has been defined now. For many teams, the national title is not anything relevant to them anymore, but for a select few, the fun begins now. We can discern some things based on these initial standings, and a little fact or fiction is in order, BCS style.
Fact or Fiction? The top two teams in the initial BCS Standings can pack their bags for Pasadena now.
Answer: Fiction. After eleven seasons of the BCS, a fine sample size of teams with the bullseye have played out the string and tried to remain atop the BCS Standings. Only one time in 11 years has the #1 and #2 teams stayed constant throughout the back half of the season, that being 2005 with USC and Texas. Ten out of eleven times, at least one of the two top teams has not been able to stay there. This year we have an oddity as two teams from the SEC lead the way with Florida and Alabama. Like Oklahoma and Nebraska, who led the first BCS Standings in 2000 and 2001, Alabama and Florida face the prospect of playing each other the very final week of the season. Precedent seems to dictate the loser of that game will certainly be eliminated from the national championship. So Gators and Crimson Tide, no packing your bags until you take care of your conference business.
Fact or Fiction? Someone in the top three in the initial BCS Standings will be in Pasadena.
Answer: Fact. In this case the ratio is 10:1 in favor based on the past history. The most highly regarded teams at this point in the season are also the most likely to overcome a loss with everyone else falling around them eventually. Last season was the fluke in this case, when Texas, Alabama, and Penn State started in October at the top but none ended up in Miami. In every other season except for 1998 (Tennessee started at number 3 and ended up in the title game), one of the top two teams in the initial BCS standings has made the championship game. As if the SEC needed more good news, history is on the side of the future SEC Champion whether it's Florida or Alabama. Considering that the conference has won the past three national titles, a one-loss champion from the SEC will get a nod over every other one loss team in the country, including USC. Expect a return to form this year with either the Gators or the Crimson Tide in Pasadena.
Fact or Fiction? Teams outside the top ten in the initial BCS Standings have a chance at Pasadena.
Answer: Fiction. Twenty-two teams have made the BCS Championship game, and with the exception of two teams, the lowest ranking of a championship participant in October is sixth (6). Over 90% of the time, everybody ranked number 7 and below can forget about it this year. The two exceptions were SEC Champions, LSU in 2003, which was number 12, and Florida last year, which was number 10. This has more to do with the conference championship of the strongest conference in America than anything else. This year LSU again sits as that darkhorse contender at number 9 after the loss to Florida, as the Bayou Bengals could beat both Alabama in the regular season and Florida in the SEC Championship, which would likely vault them to the top 2. Again, it appears that the SEC Champion is in this season as a near certainty. Which leaves one spot which most likely goes to #3 Texas, #4 Boise State, #5 Cincinnati, or #6 Iowa. With the exception of Texas, all of these teams would be fresh faces to the national title scene. USC, TCU, and Miami are still somewhat in the mix, but Oregon and everyone beneath the Ducks now should not expect any hope for a trip to Pasadena.
Fact or Fiction? Florida has an advantage because they were in the championship last season.
Answer: Fact. Although there has never been a rematch of the same two teams in the BCS Championship two years in a row, one of the participants in any given year has returned the next year six out of ten times (60%). While it is certainly not a sure bet, it definitely helps your cause with the voters and with the computers to be a team who's been there before. The chances of this year hinge on Florida, as Oklahoma lost their third game last weekend to officially remove them from any national title conversation. However, it remains clear that Florida will need to lose two games or the SEC Championship to miss this year's battle in Pasadena. The odds are in favor of the Gators for sure.
Fact or Fiction? The BCS will get lucky and have two undefeated teams, which it will place into the championship.
Answer: Fiction. The BCS was created to allow conferences who normally wouldn't play each other to send their champions into a game for all the marbles. Sometimes sorting out who is entitled to a national championship is absurdly difficult, as was the case in 2007 when Nebraska went undefeated but so did Michigan. Well the BCS has definitely has to work for it. In the past three seasons, the BCS has only had one undefeated team out of six title game participants, and even a two-loss LSU made it in the 2007 game when most teams lost at least two. Very rarely has the BCS not been tasked with sifting through a muddle of one-loss teams and perhaps one undefeated minor conference team. So far no non-BCS conference school has played for the championship, and so the road is uphill for TCU and Boise State despite their early hot starts. The BCS wouldn't be nearly as interesting without some controversy, so don't expect fate to hand the BCS Texas and an undefeated SEC Champion. Not in this crazy sport.
Fact or Fiction? It makes a difference whether you come into the BCS Championship as the top ranked team instead of #2.
Answer: Fact. If you think about it, this is really unsurprising since the top 3-5 teams in college football are usually pretty well-balanced except for the occassional dynasty. However, even the dynasties of the modern BCS era have failed to win the title game consistently as Florida State, Miami, and USC could not repeat. The #1 team won the first four years, but that streak was dropped in its tracks by the Ohio State Buckeyes who knocked off the Miami dynasty in 2002. Since the 4-0 start, #1 teams are 1-6 and have now fallen behind the #2 team 6-5 in all time victories in this championship. Thus, it does not matter whether you come in as number 1 or 2, just that you make it there.
And now, a little did you know? Did you know that the unluckiest spot in the BCS Standings is obviously number 3 in December, but no team can claim they've been stuck there more than once? Indeed, eleven different teams have had that sinking feeling so far: Kansas State, Nebraska, Miami, Colorado, Georgia, USC, Auburn, Penn State, Michigan, Virginia Tech, and Texas. Did you know that nobody has won more than two BCS Titles? LSU and Florida have added a second championship the past two years, but nobody else has more than one in the eleven years. Did you know that the three most prolific participants in the BCS Championship are the most unsuccessful? Indeed, Oklahoma is only 1/4, Ohio State is 1/3 and Florida State is 1/3, while the aforementioned two-time champions Florida and LSU are each two-for-two. These and other fun facts will make their way back out into the mainstream as the season unfolds.
So with those fun facts and fictions in mind, let's take a brief look at this season's initial standings. The seven undefeated teams are (1) Florida, (2) Alabama, (3) Texas, (4) Boise State, (5) Cincinnati, (6) Iowa, and (8) TCU. The remaining top ten teams are USC, LSU, and Miami. At this point and looking at the remaining scheduled games for each of the contenders, the true pecking order looks like (1) an undefeated SEC Champion, (2) undefeated Texas, (3) undefeated Iowa, (4) one-loss SEC Champion, (5) undefeated Cincinnati, (6) one-loss USC, (7) one-loss Texas, (8) undefeated TCU, (9) undefeated Boise State, (10) one-loss Miami. We'll see if that heirarchy proves true, but pick whichever first two down the list you can find and that will be your national title game. I believe the only way the SEC Champion misses the BCS Championship is if they lose a regular season game and if Texas and Iowa go undefeated. This will be a tall order, but it is possible. TCU and Boise State will be killed by their schedule strength yet again, which is just bad luck for the non-BCS conference schools. One thing's for sure: if both end up undefeated, there should be a rematch of a good non-BCS bowl last year when TCU knocked off undefeated and overlooked Boise State.
The top three games of the week are a tough lot to pick this weekend, as the top national title contenders are mostly untested. However, last weekend's upsets of Virginia Tech and Ohio State prove nobody should be taken lightly. That being said, out first game of the week is Air Force at Utah. Air Force gave TCU a great test and is never an easy out for the trifecta of Utah, TCU, and BYU. The Falcons do not have much of an offense to speak of through the air (which may be true irony), but the rushing attack and defense are some of the best in the nation. RB Jared Tew will look for another big game and the defense hopes to keep the ball out of talented QB Terrance Cain's hands. Cain is a true dual-threat who has slashed defenses equally with his legs and his arm. While Utah will certainly struggle against this good Falcon defense, look for the difference in the game to be the Utes defense. Air Force will be facing one of the best front sevens in the country and that should slow the prolific rushing attack enough to force Air Force to make mistakes in the passing game. Utah wins by 10.
The second game of the week is one of the final two stiff road tests in Iowa's brutal Big Ten road schedule, as the Hawkeyes visit Michigan State. The Spartans are the hottest team in the conference after a 1-3 start thanks to the overtime win against Michigan and two wins against the Illinois schools. Iowa is 7-0 for the first time since the mid-1980's and is a legitimate national championship contender for the first time under Kirk Ferentz. Despite falling behind by double digits at Penn State and Wisconsin, QB Ricky Stanzi and company have stayed tough and come back to dominate these Big Ten road games. With Ohio State struggling mightily, the trip to East Lansing shapes up to be possibly Iowa's hardest remaining game. The offense goes as TE Tony Moeaki goes, which means Michigan State will be truly tested in pass defense up the middle. The Spartans have been hurt by the injury bug, losing their top two running backs and one of their two quarterbacks two weeks ago. Nevertheless, QB Kirk Cousins and LB Greg Jones will be key leaders to watch in this game. Each team has survived a lot of battles, but you have to like Iowa's resiliency. Even if MSU jumps out to a double-digit lead, the Hawkeyes are never out of it. Iowa continues the dream season with a 4 point win.
The top game of the week is the only game between ranked teams as TCU visits BYU. TCU has a good defense as usual, but the real story is how well the Horned Frog offense has developed with QB Andy Dalton. TCU will churn up the ground game with senior Joseph Turner, and establishing the run has to be the gameplan against the explosive Cougars. Senior QB Max Hall has played one bad game this season in a loss to Florida State, but no weaknesses are evident in his game at this point in the season. BYU will be facing the best defense they have seen all year, and that includes Oklahoma. That does not bode well, as OU held the Cougars down for most of the game to start the season. The Cougars should be a lot closer than last year's 32-7 embarassment, but TCU will go into Provo and get a very rare road win there with a 10 point win.
2009 GOTW Record: 11-10
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 - Week 7
1. Alabama
2. Texas
3. Florida
4. Cincinnati
5. Iowa
6. Boise State
7. TCU
8. USC
9. Miami
10. Oregon
Just Missed: Penn State, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, LSU, BYU
So now the battle lines are drawn, the top 10 teams are in a chase similar to the one happening over in NASCAR this time of year. Will the SEC and Texas continue their dominance? Will the upstart Hawkeyes and Bearcats sneak into the title picture? Will the non-BCS schools finally break through to a title game? So many questions and seven weeks left to find those answers. We'll see you next week!
Fact or Fiction? The top two teams in the initial BCS Standings can pack their bags for Pasadena now.
Answer: Fiction. After eleven seasons of the BCS, a fine sample size of teams with the bullseye have played out the string and tried to remain atop the BCS Standings. Only one time in 11 years has the #1 and #2 teams stayed constant throughout the back half of the season, that being 2005 with USC and Texas. Ten out of eleven times, at least one of the two top teams has not been able to stay there. This year we have an oddity as two teams from the SEC lead the way with Florida and Alabama. Like Oklahoma and Nebraska, who led the first BCS Standings in 2000 and 2001, Alabama and Florida face the prospect of playing each other the very final week of the season. Precedent seems to dictate the loser of that game will certainly be eliminated from the national championship. So Gators and Crimson Tide, no packing your bags until you take care of your conference business.
Fact or Fiction? Someone in the top three in the initial BCS Standings will be in Pasadena.
Answer: Fact. In this case the ratio is 10:1 in favor based on the past history. The most highly regarded teams at this point in the season are also the most likely to overcome a loss with everyone else falling around them eventually. Last season was the fluke in this case, when Texas, Alabama, and Penn State started in October at the top but none ended up in Miami. In every other season except for 1998 (Tennessee started at number 3 and ended up in the title game), one of the top two teams in the initial BCS standings has made the championship game. As if the SEC needed more good news, history is on the side of the future SEC Champion whether it's Florida or Alabama. Considering that the conference has won the past three national titles, a one-loss champion from the SEC will get a nod over every other one loss team in the country, including USC. Expect a return to form this year with either the Gators or the Crimson Tide in Pasadena.
Fact or Fiction? Teams outside the top ten in the initial BCS Standings have a chance at Pasadena.
Answer: Fiction. Twenty-two teams have made the BCS Championship game, and with the exception of two teams, the lowest ranking of a championship participant in October is sixth (6). Over 90% of the time, everybody ranked number 7 and below can forget about it this year. The two exceptions were SEC Champions, LSU in 2003, which was number 12, and Florida last year, which was number 10. This has more to do with the conference championship of the strongest conference in America than anything else. This year LSU again sits as that darkhorse contender at number 9 after the loss to Florida, as the Bayou Bengals could beat both Alabama in the regular season and Florida in the SEC Championship, which would likely vault them to the top 2. Again, it appears that the SEC Champion is in this season as a near certainty. Which leaves one spot which most likely goes to #3 Texas, #4 Boise State, #5 Cincinnati, or #6 Iowa. With the exception of Texas, all of these teams would be fresh faces to the national title scene. USC, TCU, and Miami are still somewhat in the mix, but Oregon and everyone beneath the Ducks now should not expect any hope for a trip to Pasadena.
Fact or Fiction? Florida has an advantage because they were in the championship last season.
Answer: Fact. Although there has never been a rematch of the same two teams in the BCS Championship two years in a row, one of the participants in any given year has returned the next year six out of ten times (60%). While it is certainly not a sure bet, it definitely helps your cause with the voters and with the computers to be a team who's been there before. The chances of this year hinge on Florida, as Oklahoma lost their third game last weekend to officially remove them from any national title conversation. However, it remains clear that Florida will need to lose two games or the SEC Championship to miss this year's battle in Pasadena. The odds are in favor of the Gators for sure.
Fact or Fiction? The BCS will get lucky and have two undefeated teams, which it will place into the championship.
Answer: Fiction. The BCS was created to allow conferences who normally wouldn't play each other to send their champions into a game for all the marbles. Sometimes sorting out who is entitled to a national championship is absurdly difficult, as was the case in 2007 when Nebraska went undefeated but so did Michigan. Well the BCS has definitely has to work for it. In the past three seasons, the BCS has only had one undefeated team out of six title game participants, and even a two-loss LSU made it in the 2007 game when most teams lost at least two. Very rarely has the BCS not been tasked with sifting through a muddle of one-loss teams and perhaps one undefeated minor conference team. So far no non-BCS conference school has played for the championship, and so the road is uphill for TCU and Boise State despite their early hot starts. The BCS wouldn't be nearly as interesting without some controversy, so don't expect fate to hand the BCS Texas and an undefeated SEC Champion. Not in this crazy sport.
Fact or Fiction? It makes a difference whether you come into the BCS Championship as the top ranked team instead of #2.
Answer: Fact. If you think about it, this is really unsurprising since the top 3-5 teams in college football are usually pretty well-balanced except for the occassional dynasty. However, even the dynasties of the modern BCS era have failed to win the title game consistently as Florida State, Miami, and USC could not repeat. The #1 team won the first four years, but that streak was dropped in its tracks by the Ohio State Buckeyes who knocked off the Miami dynasty in 2002. Since the 4-0 start, #1 teams are 1-6 and have now fallen behind the #2 team 6-5 in all time victories in this championship. Thus, it does not matter whether you come in as number 1 or 2, just that you make it there.
And now, a little did you know? Did you know that the unluckiest spot in the BCS Standings is obviously number 3 in December, but no team can claim they've been stuck there more than once? Indeed, eleven different teams have had that sinking feeling so far: Kansas State, Nebraska, Miami, Colorado, Georgia, USC, Auburn, Penn State, Michigan, Virginia Tech, and Texas. Did you know that nobody has won more than two BCS Titles? LSU and Florida have added a second championship the past two years, but nobody else has more than one in the eleven years. Did you know that the three most prolific participants in the BCS Championship are the most unsuccessful? Indeed, Oklahoma is only 1/4, Ohio State is 1/3 and Florida State is 1/3, while the aforementioned two-time champions Florida and LSU are each two-for-two. These and other fun facts will make their way back out into the mainstream as the season unfolds.
So with those fun facts and fictions in mind, let's take a brief look at this season's initial standings. The seven undefeated teams are (1) Florida, (2) Alabama, (3) Texas, (4) Boise State, (5) Cincinnati, (6) Iowa, and (8) TCU. The remaining top ten teams are USC, LSU, and Miami. At this point and looking at the remaining scheduled games for each of the contenders, the true pecking order looks like (1) an undefeated SEC Champion, (2) undefeated Texas, (3) undefeated Iowa, (4) one-loss SEC Champion, (5) undefeated Cincinnati, (6) one-loss USC, (7) one-loss Texas, (8) undefeated TCU, (9) undefeated Boise State, (10) one-loss Miami. We'll see if that heirarchy proves true, but pick whichever first two down the list you can find and that will be your national title game. I believe the only way the SEC Champion misses the BCS Championship is if they lose a regular season game and if Texas and Iowa go undefeated. This will be a tall order, but it is possible. TCU and Boise State will be killed by their schedule strength yet again, which is just bad luck for the non-BCS conference schools. One thing's for sure: if both end up undefeated, there should be a rematch of a good non-BCS bowl last year when TCU knocked off undefeated and overlooked Boise State.
The top three games of the week are a tough lot to pick this weekend, as the top national title contenders are mostly untested. However, last weekend's upsets of Virginia Tech and Ohio State prove nobody should be taken lightly. That being said, out first game of the week is Air Force at Utah. Air Force gave TCU a great test and is never an easy out for the trifecta of Utah, TCU, and BYU. The Falcons do not have much of an offense to speak of through the air (which may be true irony), but the rushing attack and defense are some of the best in the nation. RB Jared Tew will look for another big game and the defense hopes to keep the ball out of talented QB Terrance Cain's hands. Cain is a true dual-threat who has slashed defenses equally with his legs and his arm. While Utah will certainly struggle against this good Falcon defense, look for the difference in the game to be the Utes defense. Air Force will be facing one of the best front sevens in the country and that should slow the prolific rushing attack enough to force Air Force to make mistakes in the passing game. Utah wins by 10.
The second game of the week is one of the final two stiff road tests in Iowa's brutal Big Ten road schedule, as the Hawkeyes visit Michigan State. The Spartans are the hottest team in the conference after a 1-3 start thanks to the overtime win against Michigan and two wins against the Illinois schools. Iowa is 7-0 for the first time since the mid-1980's and is a legitimate national championship contender for the first time under Kirk Ferentz. Despite falling behind by double digits at Penn State and Wisconsin, QB Ricky Stanzi and company have stayed tough and come back to dominate these Big Ten road games. With Ohio State struggling mightily, the trip to East Lansing shapes up to be possibly Iowa's hardest remaining game. The offense goes as TE Tony Moeaki goes, which means Michigan State will be truly tested in pass defense up the middle. The Spartans have been hurt by the injury bug, losing their top two running backs and one of their two quarterbacks two weeks ago. Nevertheless, QB Kirk Cousins and LB Greg Jones will be key leaders to watch in this game. Each team has survived a lot of battles, but you have to like Iowa's resiliency. Even if MSU jumps out to a double-digit lead, the Hawkeyes are never out of it. Iowa continues the dream season with a 4 point win.
The top game of the week is the only game between ranked teams as TCU visits BYU. TCU has a good defense as usual, but the real story is how well the Horned Frog offense has developed with QB Andy Dalton. TCU will churn up the ground game with senior Joseph Turner, and establishing the run has to be the gameplan against the explosive Cougars. Senior QB Max Hall has played one bad game this season in a loss to Florida State, but no weaknesses are evident in his game at this point in the season. BYU will be facing the best defense they have seen all year, and that includes Oklahoma. That does not bode well, as OU held the Cougars down for most of the game to start the season. The Cougars should be a lot closer than last year's 32-7 embarassment, but TCU will go into Provo and get a very rare road win there with a 10 point win.
2009 GOTW Record: 11-10
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 - Week 7
1. Alabama
2. Texas
3. Florida
4. Cincinnati
5. Iowa
6. Boise State
7. TCU
8. USC
9. Miami
10. Oregon
Just Missed: Penn State, Georgia Tech, Oklahoma State, LSU, BYU
So now the battle lines are drawn, the top 10 teams are in a chase similar to the one happening over in NASCAR this time of year. Will the SEC and Texas continue their dominance? Will the upstart Hawkeyes and Bearcats sneak into the title picture? Will the non-BCS schools finally break through to a title game? So many questions and seven weeks left to find those answers. We'll see you next week!
Thursday, October 15, 2009
What Happened? Mid-Season Surprises Not Always Good
Not everyone has played six games yet, but this week marks the midway point of the season for most schools. Usually we really have no idea what to expect from the season until the middle weekend of October, and there are always surprises and disappointments. This season, the positive surprises include Cincinnati, Iowa, Duke, and Army, among other things. However nice these stories are, the sheer fact of the matter is halfway through the season, the top 5 teams in America were within the Top 8 at the beginning of the year. For now, the bad surprises are standing out more. So what went wrong? Let's see if we can find out.
We begin in the ACC, and there's no doubt the most shocking disappointment of the season hails from Tallahassee. Florida State played well against a game Miami squad and started 2-1 after trouncing mighty BYU in Provo, but since that roadtrip...three weeks and three losses. The road does not get much easier in the conference and with four losses and Florida on the schedule, this will very likely be the first losing season since coach Bobby Bowden's first year in 1976. The offense is doing just fine, although it can be a bit inconsistent as shown in a couple of games. However, the defense has been atrocious, and you wonder if Bowden has the right staff around him on the defensive side. The athletes are there, so there's really no excuse other than the coaching is not good enough to get these guys to execute. That will likely lead to Bowden's exit after this year or next, which is a sad passing of the torch.
If the Seminoles are disappointing, the Colorado Buffaloes are a tragedy. It seemed like Dan Hawkins was set for success when he took the reins at Colorado in a downtrodden Big XII North, but he's done nothing to even come close to the expectations. You know things are getting bad when the coach's son, a three-year starter at quarterback, gets benched for this week's game. The defense looked good for a half against Texas, but make no mistake about it...the defense is the number one problem here too. Colorado does not have an offense that can score 30 points per game, but that's what the defense is giving up. The offense is struggling to find balance, which means teams can cheat up and load the box to slow the Buffaloes. At this point, Hawkins has to be on the thinnest of wires for the rest of the season and perhaps nothing can stop a pink slip in this situation. Colorado always seems to get picked to be competitive in the North, but always they disappear.
Although Illinois is certainly the most disappointing team in the Big Ten, the story here is more about an individual. Quarterback Juice Williams appeared to figure it all out in a dream sophomore season in 2007. The highlight was going into Columbus Ohio and giving Ohio State their first regular season loss in over 2 years. Williams had tons of talent around him thanks to the recruiting master Ron Zook, and it appeared Illinois would parlay the 2008 Rose Bowl into a couple years of being OSU's primary rival. But then, Williams had a mediocre junior year. In his senior season, he's gotten even worse, being benched last weekend before another loss. Illinois has scored one first half touchdown against four FBS teams, and while the competition has been solid, this level of offensive ineptitude is unacceptable. Ron Zook definitely gets part of the blame, but you rarely see a player regress so dramatically like Williams has. So this remains a mystery, but maybe Williams is not as good as he looked in 2007.
Although there's always someone who must end up the loser in the Mid-American conference, this season we have a tale of two cities. In Oxford Ohio, the cupboards were left pretty empty for rookie head coach Michael Heywood. Nevertheless, getting outscored 90-0 in the first two games could not have been pictured. Although the Redhawks have played decent defense at times, the offense is nonexistant. In this case, Heywood just needs a few years to recruit to be competitive in even the MAC. In Muncie Indiana the story of the year last year was undefeated Ball State, who has turned that around to an 0-6 start this year. Ball State has also given up 30 points per game, which is unacceptable but the offense which carried them last season also disappeared. The Cardinals have sturggled to move the ball on the ground, and it does not seem like the boys from Muncie are the same team from a season ago. So Oxford and Ball State don't play each other, which is a shame because that could be the powderpuff bowl of the season.
Another duo closes out the disappointing surprises in the Pac-10. The slightly less disappointing team is UCLA, who started 3-0 but now looks hapless in conference play. One would expect that the fertile recruiting grounds that Pete Carroll draws from could easily support UCLA, especially on offense with masterminds Norm Chow as coordinator and Rick Neuheisel at the head coach position. Yet the Bruins are struggling to stay afloat at all on offense and they put a lot of pressur eon their defense. Meanwhile, California is probably competing with Mississippi for most overrated team of September. The difference that puts Cal on this list is just how awful they played against the best two teams in the conference and how the Heisman hopes of RB Javhid Best have been thoroughly deflated. Cal has a nice win at Minnesota, but the Golden Bears have been outscored 72-6 since then. Something's gotta give this weekend as these two titans meet at the Rose Bowl, which will be as close to the BCS either gets this season. I suspect UCLA can turn it around, but California may be headed to a new coaching regime.
The first game of the week pits two teams coming off a bye, as USC travels to Notre Dame for their annual rivalry. USC has dominated the series since Pete Carroll took over, but Notre Dame has true aspirations and hopes for the first time since 2005. Coach Charlie Weis could end all talks of his job security with a win here, so expect him to pull out all the stops to try and catch USC in what appears to be a down year. This battle is the rumbling rushing attack of USC with RB Joe McKnight and company versus the prolific passing attack of Jimmy Clausen and the fighting Irish. USC has more than enough defensive talent to hold Notre Dame in check, but this has the markigns of a very close game. Nobody should be surprised if Notre Dame wins with a couple big plays as long as they pressure Matt Barkley into mistakes. If Barkley has enough time to operate, and I think he will, USC will win this in a dramatic finish like 2005. USC by 4.
The second game of the week is likely the final big game separating Virginia Tech from a BCS bowl. The Hokies face a dangerous roadtrip to Atlanta to face Georgia Tech, who are coming off an offensive slugfest with Florida State. On one side, you have the quickly improving and possibly national-title caliber Hokie defense taking on the triple option rushing attack of the Yellowjackets. The triple option is hard to prepare for, so expect Georgia Tech to have more success than Miami and Boston Collee have had in the last two weeks. Unfortunately the game will likely be decided on the other side of the ball, where QB Tyrod Taylor has come into his own and is facing one of the weakest defenses in the conference. One only has to look at the 49-44 shootout with Florida State to understand that Georgia Tech is troubled on defense. There is a chance for Tech to put pressure on Taylor, and if they can contain him from rushing outside the pocket, they may stick around long enough to have a chance. I think Virginia Tech moves closer to a BCS Championship game berth with a 17 point win.
The top game of the week, well we're going to the Big East instead of the Big D. On Thursday night a matchup of undefeated teams will pit Cincinnati against South Florida in what could very well be a BCS play-in game. Last year I had the privilege of covering this game in Cincinnati, and it propelled the Bearcats to winning out and their first BCS bowl. This year Cincinnati may have a BCS Championship berth on the line if they can survive this roadtrip to Tampa. Cincinnati has reloaded on defense, but the story of this game and season are the most talented players in the conference in QB Tony Pike and WR Mardy Gilyard. If these guys have another big game on the national stage, one or both will be in New York for the Heisman ceremony. They are that good. South Florida has recovered nicely from losing star senior QB Matt Grothe for the season, but this will be the first truly tough test against a solid defense. Don't expect this game to be played in the 30's, as both defenses should step up and make a statement. The defenses are equal, but the offenses are not and the Bearcats take a big step with a 10 point road victory.
2009 GOTW Record: 9-9
Last Week: 3-0 (woo!)
Fitz Top 10 - Week 6
1. Alabama (6-0)
2. Florida (5-0)
3. Texas (5-0)
4. TCU (5-0)
5. Cincinnati (5-0)
6. Boise State (5-0)
7. Virginia Tech (5-1)
8. Ohio State (5-1)
9. USC (4-1)
10. South Florida (5-0)
Just Missed: Iowa, Oregon, Miami, Penn State, LSU
For the second straight week, the next three best games on the schedule are almost as good as the three I previewed. Obviously Texas versus Oklahoma is a big game but this is really only Texas with something to lose. It will be interesting to see if Sam Bradford is his usual self, as if he is, Colt McCoy will need a Heisman-worthy performance to lead the Longhorns to victory. While I adore going to spend Saturdays with my fellow writers in the pressbox somewhere, I will enjoy a weekend in front of the television this weekend. Wherever you may end up this weekend, don't forget the great football that will be going on. See you next week!
We begin in the ACC, and there's no doubt the most shocking disappointment of the season hails from Tallahassee. Florida State played well against a game Miami squad and started 2-1 after trouncing mighty BYU in Provo, but since that roadtrip...three weeks and three losses. The road does not get much easier in the conference and with four losses and Florida on the schedule, this will very likely be the first losing season since coach Bobby Bowden's first year in 1976. The offense is doing just fine, although it can be a bit inconsistent as shown in a couple of games. However, the defense has been atrocious, and you wonder if Bowden has the right staff around him on the defensive side. The athletes are there, so there's really no excuse other than the coaching is not good enough to get these guys to execute. That will likely lead to Bowden's exit after this year or next, which is a sad passing of the torch.
If the Seminoles are disappointing, the Colorado Buffaloes are a tragedy. It seemed like Dan Hawkins was set for success when he took the reins at Colorado in a downtrodden Big XII North, but he's done nothing to even come close to the expectations. You know things are getting bad when the coach's son, a three-year starter at quarterback, gets benched for this week's game. The defense looked good for a half against Texas, but make no mistake about it...the defense is the number one problem here too. Colorado does not have an offense that can score 30 points per game, but that's what the defense is giving up. The offense is struggling to find balance, which means teams can cheat up and load the box to slow the Buffaloes. At this point, Hawkins has to be on the thinnest of wires for the rest of the season and perhaps nothing can stop a pink slip in this situation. Colorado always seems to get picked to be competitive in the North, but always they disappear.
Although Illinois is certainly the most disappointing team in the Big Ten, the story here is more about an individual. Quarterback Juice Williams appeared to figure it all out in a dream sophomore season in 2007. The highlight was going into Columbus Ohio and giving Ohio State their first regular season loss in over 2 years. Williams had tons of talent around him thanks to the recruiting master Ron Zook, and it appeared Illinois would parlay the 2008 Rose Bowl into a couple years of being OSU's primary rival. But then, Williams had a mediocre junior year. In his senior season, he's gotten even worse, being benched last weekend before another loss. Illinois has scored one first half touchdown against four FBS teams, and while the competition has been solid, this level of offensive ineptitude is unacceptable. Ron Zook definitely gets part of the blame, but you rarely see a player regress so dramatically like Williams has. So this remains a mystery, but maybe Williams is not as good as he looked in 2007.
Although there's always someone who must end up the loser in the Mid-American conference, this season we have a tale of two cities. In Oxford Ohio, the cupboards were left pretty empty for rookie head coach Michael Heywood. Nevertheless, getting outscored 90-0 in the first two games could not have been pictured. Although the Redhawks have played decent defense at times, the offense is nonexistant. In this case, Heywood just needs a few years to recruit to be competitive in even the MAC. In Muncie Indiana the story of the year last year was undefeated Ball State, who has turned that around to an 0-6 start this year. Ball State has also given up 30 points per game, which is unacceptable but the offense which carried them last season also disappeared. The Cardinals have sturggled to move the ball on the ground, and it does not seem like the boys from Muncie are the same team from a season ago. So Oxford and Ball State don't play each other, which is a shame because that could be the powderpuff bowl of the season.
Another duo closes out the disappointing surprises in the Pac-10. The slightly less disappointing team is UCLA, who started 3-0 but now looks hapless in conference play. One would expect that the fertile recruiting grounds that Pete Carroll draws from could easily support UCLA, especially on offense with masterminds Norm Chow as coordinator and Rick Neuheisel at the head coach position. Yet the Bruins are struggling to stay afloat at all on offense and they put a lot of pressur eon their defense. Meanwhile, California is probably competing with Mississippi for most overrated team of September. The difference that puts Cal on this list is just how awful they played against the best two teams in the conference and how the Heisman hopes of RB Javhid Best have been thoroughly deflated. Cal has a nice win at Minnesota, but the Golden Bears have been outscored 72-6 since then. Something's gotta give this weekend as these two titans meet at the Rose Bowl, which will be as close to the BCS either gets this season. I suspect UCLA can turn it around, but California may be headed to a new coaching regime.
The first game of the week pits two teams coming off a bye, as USC travels to Notre Dame for their annual rivalry. USC has dominated the series since Pete Carroll took over, but Notre Dame has true aspirations and hopes for the first time since 2005. Coach Charlie Weis could end all talks of his job security with a win here, so expect him to pull out all the stops to try and catch USC in what appears to be a down year. This battle is the rumbling rushing attack of USC with RB Joe McKnight and company versus the prolific passing attack of Jimmy Clausen and the fighting Irish. USC has more than enough defensive talent to hold Notre Dame in check, but this has the markigns of a very close game. Nobody should be surprised if Notre Dame wins with a couple big plays as long as they pressure Matt Barkley into mistakes. If Barkley has enough time to operate, and I think he will, USC will win this in a dramatic finish like 2005. USC by 4.
The second game of the week is likely the final big game separating Virginia Tech from a BCS bowl. The Hokies face a dangerous roadtrip to Atlanta to face Georgia Tech, who are coming off an offensive slugfest with Florida State. On one side, you have the quickly improving and possibly national-title caliber Hokie defense taking on the triple option rushing attack of the Yellowjackets. The triple option is hard to prepare for, so expect Georgia Tech to have more success than Miami and Boston Collee have had in the last two weeks. Unfortunately the game will likely be decided on the other side of the ball, where QB Tyrod Taylor has come into his own and is facing one of the weakest defenses in the conference. One only has to look at the 49-44 shootout with Florida State to understand that Georgia Tech is troubled on defense. There is a chance for Tech to put pressure on Taylor, and if they can contain him from rushing outside the pocket, they may stick around long enough to have a chance. I think Virginia Tech moves closer to a BCS Championship game berth with a 17 point win.
The top game of the week, well we're going to the Big East instead of the Big D. On Thursday night a matchup of undefeated teams will pit Cincinnati against South Florida in what could very well be a BCS play-in game. Last year I had the privilege of covering this game in Cincinnati, and it propelled the Bearcats to winning out and their first BCS bowl. This year Cincinnati may have a BCS Championship berth on the line if they can survive this roadtrip to Tampa. Cincinnati has reloaded on defense, but the story of this game and season are the most talented players in the conference in QB Tony Pike and WR Mardy Gilyard. If these guys have another big game on the national stage, one or both will be in New York for the Heisman ceremony. They are that good. South Florida has recovered nicely from losing star senior QB Matt Grothe for the season, but this will be the first truly tough test against a solid defense. Don't expect this game to be played in the 30's, as both defenses should step up and make a statement. The defenses are equal, but the offenses are not and the Bearcats take a big step with a 10 point road victory.
2009 GOTW Record: 9-9
Last Week: 3-0 (woo!)
Fitz Top 10 - Week 6
1. Alabama (6-0)
2. Florida (5-0)
3. Texas (5-0)
4. TCU (5-0)
5. Cincinnati (5-0)
6. Boise State (5-0)
7. Virginia Tech (5-1)
8. Ohio State (5-1)
9. USC (4-1)
10. South Florida (5-0)
Just Missed: Iowa, Oregon, Miami, Penn State, LSU
For the second straight week, the next three best games on the schedule are almost as good as the three I previewed. Obviously Texas versus Oklahoma is a big game but this is really only Texas with something to lose. It will be interesting to see if Sam Bradford is his usual self, as if he is, Colt McCoy will need a Heisman-worthy performance to lead the Longhorns to victory. While I adore going to spend Saturdays with my fellow writers in the pressbox somewhere, I will enjoy a weekend in front of the television this weekend. Wherever you may end up this weekend, don't forget the great football that will be going on. See you next week!
Saturday, October 10, 2009
Gameday Report - Battle for the Big Ten Lead
Welcome to another issue of the Gameday Report, this time coming to you from Columbus, Ohio. There are many locations to watch a college football game, but for an overall college football experience, Columbus is one of the best places to be. The tailgating is lively, the visiting fans are not treated poorly, the marching band is one of the best traditions in college football, and of course there's the historic Horseshoe. When the weather gets a crisp edge in October and the familiar Big Ten foes come knocking, the Horseshoe fills with over 100,000 screaming fans and it becomes quite a Saturday spectacle. Today we have by sheer luck what turns out to be an early battle for sole possession of the conference lead and a downhill road to the BCS thanks to eight separate Big Ten teams taking a loss in the first two weeks of conference play and Iowa having a bye. So Wisconsin and Ohio State meet with identical 2-0 conference records and both are looking to assert themselves: Wisconsin as a conference contender, and Ohio State as a national contender.
SCS.com In the pregame, there is tailgating. In fact, I found people ranging from the age of 90 to the age of 13 months, enjoying themselves with all sorts of great food and beverage. The town was painted red as the visitors match the color of Ohio State on this day. Having been a former Columbus resident, it was nice to see some old friends and some new friends, whether they cheer for the Badgers or the Buckeyes. While I hear the traffic patterns have been awful with the main highway through campus being reconstructed this fall, that has not put a damper on the gameday atmosphere around the stadium. After a few good conversations (a lot of people think this will be a lot closer than the 14-point line), it was time to head to the stadium.
SCS.com The pregame ritual at Columbus is all about the OSU Marching Band. Not only does the band play a warm-up "skull session" two hours prior to the game which is open to the public and well-attended. Then the Marching Band marches into the stadium 20 minutes before kickoff to a crowd standing and clapping to a rhythm with the drum core. The OSU band played all the favorites including Hang On Sloopy, the university alma mater, and the fight songs. Script Ohio got the crowd fully rocking as gameitme approached and the teams took the field. Ohio State won the toss and elected to put their offense on the field first, hoping to make a statement. And now, it's time for the stream-of-consciousness notes from the game.
FIRST QUARTER
Ohio State had a couple poor plays and a ten yard pass was not enough to overcome the losses, so a quick three-and-out which made the coin toss choice backfire. However, a 47 yard punt and a sack on first down put Wisconsin right back in a hole against the OSU defense. Two plays later Wisconsin also had a three-and-out to start the game, so three minutes in and we're already done switching possessions. A nice return by Ray Small got completely wiped out by a block in the back, so early on the sledding is tough. Ohio State moved the chains but a big sack on a third down stopped their second drive cold. You really have to be impressed with how this Wisconsin defense has come out and put some real pressure on Terrelle Pryor, which could be a key to this game. Yet again, the Buckeye defense got a good pass rush on a third and short after a couple plays to John Clay and Wisconsin punted away. Pryor had time to throw on the next possession, but the coverage was strong and the Wisconsin defense held strong. Wisconsin's third possession will start another ten yards forward at the 40, which means Wisconsin is currently slowly gaining a field position advantage. Wisconsin began moving the chains getting their first two first downs of the game and were in field goal range when disaster struck and a pressured Scott Tolzien forced a throw down the middle that SS Kurt Coleman took 89 yards for a touchdown. Right when Wisconsin had OSU where they wanted them, the Buckeyes strike with their defense for a 7-0 lead. Wisconsin kept up the pressure with some nifty quick runs to the edge by WR David Gilreath to pass midfield. The first quarter ended with wisconsin around midfield and driving yet again.
SECOND QUARTER
Another sack on a third down cut another Wisconsin drive down, as the Buckeye defense bends but sure knows how to come up with a timely stop. On the ensuing possession, a sack and an interception set up the Badgers nicely at Ohio state's 12-yard line. The Buckeye defense stuffed the Badgers but Wisconsin faked a field goal and made it into the endzone on a 9-yard rush by FS Chris Maragos. The play was reviewed but there was not quite enough evidence to overturn the touchdown, which allows the Badgers to return the favor of a touchdown off a turnover, tied 7-7. Gutsy call by Coach Bielema in this game, but he understands that sometimes you have to be bold to win. Still, wisconsin is dominating the Buckeye offense right now so it's hard to imagine they will not be back down in the red zone again this game. The Buckeyes were not able to capitalize on the next drive and have only had one first down in five possessions so far. As was expected, these teams have locked into a defensive struggle. Wisconsin got rolling again with a health dose of running via John Clay and picked up a crucial fourth down conversion to keep the drive going in Buckeye territory. The Badgers stalled out after the conversion and had to settle for a 50-yard field goal which was converted easily by Philip Welch for a 10-7 Badger lead. Going into halftime, Ohio State really needs a good two-minute drive as the Badgers have held the ball for over 20 minutes in the first half and even a great defense will wear out at that rate. And just on cue, Pryor runs for 27 and then 5 yards, then begins an aerial assault that ends with a 32-yard bomb to DeVier Posey for a touchdown and the 14-10 lead. Wisconsin got into range for a 57-yard field goal attempt but it ended up wide right and Wisconsin, who thoroghly outplayed Ohio State for 28 minutes of the first half, ends up on the wrong side of a 14-10 halftime margin.
HALFTIME THOUGHTS
Well if anybody questions the merit of Wisconsin as a Big Ten contender and a team that should be ranked, those questions dissipated in the first half here in Columbus. The Badger defense has been rock solid, only giving up a 89 yard drive in a two-minute drill and one first down in five other possessions. The Buckeye defense has played well considering how much they have been on the field, but Wisconsin is starting to find holes in the rushing game and I believe has found a go-to play with the WR edge runs by David Gilreath. Look for more of the same in the second half, as Wisconsin will win this game if they continue the same type of play in the second half. It will be very interesting to see if OSU goes with an uptempo two-minute style of offense in the second half after using it to great success. The only problem is that this will exacerbate the time of possession problem, and you do not want the defense to get tired and fail late. Stay tuned, as we have a classic brewing in the Horseshoe.
THIRD QUARTER
Wisconsin started at their own 20 and grabbed a first down before the drive fell apart. After a couple of negative plays, FS Jermale Hines tipped a pass to himself and returned it 32 yards for a second interception-return-for-touchdown for the Buckeye defense on the day. All of a sudden it's 21-10 after the Badgers had all the momentum in the game with two minutes to go in the first half and the kickoff to them in the third quarter. A personal foul on the Buckeyes set up the Badgers with good field position on the next drive, starting at their own 31. The Badgers immediately ripped off a 33 yard pass and that led to a 46-yard field goal to cut the lead to 21-13. And yet again the Buckeyes came up big on a special teams play with a 96 yard return for touchdown by Ray Small to make it 28-13. All of a sudden, Ohio State has doubled their score in 5 minutes without having a single offensive snap. If Wisconsin is going to hold a 15 minute advantage in time of possession, this is how you have to win, with special teams and defense. Wisconsin was buried at their own 5 yard line to start the next drive, but again the Badger offense kept rolling right out of trouble and moved the ball rights down the field on a long drive including 5 first downs that ended in a missed 33 yard field goal attempt. Over thirteen minutes off the clock now in the second half and OSU still has not had an offensive snap; however, they now hold a 15 point lead and will finally get the ball. Hard to believe the last time Pryor touched the ball, OSU was down by 3 points. Wisconsin has also not had a three-and-out since the beginning of the second quarter, which is a testament to how well the Badgers are playing against this OSU defense. The quarter ended with OSU picking up a first down on their first offensive possession since the two-minute drill at the end of the first half.
FOURTH QUARTER
The Badgers have their best unit on the field right now in their defense, but they will need a big play or two to turn this game back around. The Buckeyes drove right down the field quickly to start the fourth quarter and made it a three-possession game with a 37-yard field goal by Aaron Pettrey, now 31-13. Without something drastic and soon, Wisconsin will be leaving Columbus without their undefeated record. Wisconsin picked up another first down but could only punt the ball away and watch as Ohio State began working on the clock in earnest. Ohio State was forced to punt on a couple more drives, but Wisconsin put in some second-stringers for the experience and the game stayed right where it was at an 18 point margin. So on a day when the battle appeared to be the Wisconsin offense versus the Buckeye defense, it was the Wisconsin defense who stood tall and dominated most of the game surprisingly in a losing effort. Both defenses have to be happy, but the Buckeyes simply made more turnovers and big plays from those turnovers.
POSTGAME PRESS CONFERENCE
Now Ohio State and Wisconsin operate press conferences at the same time, so I chose to discuss the victory with the new Big Ten sole leaders. Coach Tressel highlighted the defense and special teams as expected, but he did say the biggest tow plays of the game for him were when the offense put up points at the end of the first half on a touchdown and the last field goal to put the game seemingly out of reach. After the Navy game, no lead is taken for granted in that clubhouse. No defensive touchdowns allowed and only 6 points surrendered is an awesome job even though Wisconsin was able to drive quite a bit, according to Tressel. The strategy on the last drive of the half was not to take advantage of a prevent defense but instead use misdirection to overcome the Wisconsin defenders who were aggressively overplaying a bit at that point in the game. As for the captains, Kurt Coleman would not comment on the suspension from last week other than to say it was the hardest week he's had to go through watching his compatriots battle without him. But coming back and getting a big interception return was just what the doctor ordered this game. Jake Ballard said the offense got mighty cold and frustrated having to watch the whole third quarter after wanting to get back out there with the momentum, but he will never complain about the defense and special teams making it easy on them. Ray Small waited four years to break out and get a touchdown in the return game, but now he has one and he feels like it could not have come on a better day. Small looks to improve both as a returner AND a receiver even though his reps at wideout have been limited in the past. The overall feeling from multiple guys going into Purdue is that they will have to make some serious adjustments to be ready but that they are continually striving to become better week to week, including the defense who some are already calling elite.
Comments from the Wisconsin side included QB Scott Tolzien saying he needs to make some better reads if they are to come to places like Columbus and leave with a victory. Defensive back Chris Maragos said that the score right before halftime was the turning point, as things were deflated at halftime a bit and did not get any better as Wisconsin gave up another interception return for touchdown on the first drive of the second half. Coach Bret Bielema thinks that they can easily win games like this and proved their worth by outplaying the Buckeyes except for the big play mistakes today. Bielema looks forward to the next challenge at home against Iowa and hopes that his defense continues to play as strong as they did to contain Pryor and company all day.
So in summary, the Buckeyes came out and did not hold the ball for very long, but the defense held up the offense yet again. It's being said in Big Ten country that OSU will likely not need to score more than 20 points per game the rest of the way to end up in the BCS and perhaps the national championship with this defense. After seeing them bend but not break again today, this defense reminds me a lot of the 2002 defense. A scrappy defense who will get the big play every once in a while will give Pryor and the offense time to develop and do just enough to win. For Wisconsin, this was still a good statement despite the final score. Wisconsin will of course be disappointed to drop out of the conference lead and lose the undefeated label, but another big opportunity awaits in the friendly confines next week to re-establish themselves and get into the national rankings. As for Ohio State, it's high time for them to regain a little national respect after gutting out a tough win after some blowouts. Ohio State proved yet again that they are the team to beat in the Big Ten and the road to the Big Ten title will go through their house. Congratulations to the Buckeyes, good luck to both the Badgers and the Buckeyes in continuing your seasons. Also, a special thanks to the Ohio State athletic department for allowing us the privilege to cover this game. We appreciate the opportunity to bring our readers great coverage from the biggest venues, and the Horseshoe is one of the best. See you next week readers!
SCS.com In the pregame, there is tailgating. In fact, I found people ranging from the age of 90 to the age of 13 months, enjoying themselves with all sorts of great food and beverage. The town was painted red as the visitors match the color of Ohio State on this day. Having been a former Columbus resident, it was nice to see some old friends and some new friends, whether they cheer for the Badgers or the Buckeyes. While I hear the traffic patterns have been awful with the main highway through campus being reconstructed this fall, that has not put a damper on the gameday atmosphere around the stadium. After a few good conversations (a lot of people think this will be a lot closer than the 14-point line), it was time to head to the stadium.
SCS.com The pregame ritual at Columbus is all about the OSU Marching Band. Not only does the band play a warm-up "skull session" two hours prior to the game which is open to the public and well-attended. Then the Marching Band marches into the stadium 20 minutes before kickoff to a crowd standing and clapping to a rhythm with the drum core. The OSU band played all the favorites including Hang On Sloopy, the university alma mater, and the fight songs. Script Ohio got the crowd fully rocking as gameitme approached and the teams took the field. Ohio State won the toss and elected to put their offense on the field first, hoping to make a statement. And now, it's time for the stream-of-consciousness notes from the game.
FIRST QUARTER
Ohio State had a couple poor plays and a ten yard pass was not enough to overcome the losses, so a quick three-and-out which made the coin toss choice backfire. However, a 47 yard punt and a sack on first down put Wisconsin right back in a hole against the OSU defense. Two plays later Wisconsin also had a three-and-out to start the game, so three minutes in and we're already done switching possessions. A nice return by Ray Small got completely wiped out by a block in the back, so early on the sledding is tough. Ohio State moved the chains but a big sack on a third down stopped their second drive cold. You really have to be impressed with how this Wisconsin defense has come out and put some real pressure on Terrelle Pryor, which could be a key to this game. Yet again, the Buckeye defense got a good pass rush on a third and short after a couple plays to John Clay and Wisconsin punted away. Pryor had time to throw on the next possession, but the coverage was strong and the Wisconsin defense held strong. Wisconsin's third possession will start another ten yards forward at the 40, which means Wisconsin is currently slowly gaining a field position advantage. Wisconsin began moving the chains getting their first two first downs of the game and were in field goal range when disaster struck and a pressured Scott Tolzien forced a throw down the middle that SS Kurt Coleman took 89 yards for a touchdown. Right when Wisconsin had OSU where they wanted them, the Buckeyes strike with their defense for a 7-0 lead. Wisconsin kept up the pressure with some nifty quick runs to the edge by WR David Gilreath to pass midfield. The first quarter ended with wisconsin around midfield and driving yet again.
SECOND QUARTER
Another sack on a third down cut another Wisconsin drive down, as the Buckeye defense bends but sure knows how to come up with a timely stop. On the ensuing possession, a sack and an interception set up the Badgers nicely at Ohio state's 12-yard line. The Buckeye defense stuffed the Badgers but Wisconsin faked a field goal and made it into the endzone on a 9-yard rush by FS Chris Maragos. The play was reviewed but there was not quite enough evidence to overturn the touchdown, which allows the Badgers to return the favor of a touchdown off a turnover, tied 7-7. Gutsy call by Coach Bielema in this game, but he understands that sometimes you have to be bold to win. Still, wisconsin is dominating the Buckeye offense right now so it's hard to imagine they will not be back down in the red zone again this game. The Buckeyes were not able to capitalize on the next drive and have only had one first down in five possessions so far. As was expected, these teams have locked into a defensive struggle. Wisconsin got rolling again with a health dose of running via John Clay and picked up a crucial fourth down conversion to keep the drive going in Buckeye territory. The Badgers stalled out after the conversion and had to settle for a 50-yard field goal which was converted easily by Philip Welch for a 10-7 Badger lead. Going into halftime, Ohio State really needs a good two-minute drive as the Badgers have held the ball for over 20 minutes in the first half and even a great defense will wear out at that rate. And just on cue, Pryor runs for 27 and then 5 yards, then begins an aerial assault that ends with a 32-yard bomb to DeVier Posey for a touchdown and the 14-10 lead. Wisconsin got into range for a 57-yard field goal attempt but it ended up wide right and Wisconsin, who thoroghly outplayed Ohio State for 28 minutes of the first half, ends up on the wrong side of a 14-10 halftime margin.
HALFTIME THOUGHTS
Well if anybody questions the merit of Wisconsin as a Big Ten contender and a team that should be ranked, those questions dissipated in the first half here in Columbus. The Badger defense has been rock solid, only giving up a 89 yard drive in a two-minute drill and one first down in five other possessions. The Buckeye defense has played well considering how much they have been on the field, but Wisconsin is starting to find holes in the rushing game and I believe has found a go-to play with the WR edge runs by David Gilreath. Look for more of the same in the second half, as Wisconsin will win this game if they continue the same type of play in the second half. It will be very interesting to see if OSU goes with an uptempo two-minute style of offense in the second half after using it to great success. The only problem is that this will exacerbate the time of possession problem, and you do not want the defense to get tired and fail late. Stay tuned, as we have a classic brewing in the Horseshoe.
THIRD QUARTER
Wisconsin started at their own 20 and grabbed a first down before the drive fell apart. After a couple of negative plays, FS Jermale Hines tipped a pass to himself and returned it 32 yards for a second interception-return-for-touchdown for the Buckeye defense on the day. All of a sudden it's 21-10 after the Badgers had all the momentum in the game with two minutes to go in the first half and the kickoff to them in the third quarter. A personal foul on the Buckeyes set up the Badgers with good field position on the next drive, starting at their own 31. The Badgers immediately ripped off a 33 yard pass and that led to a 46-yard field goal to cut the lead to 21-13. And yet again the Buckeyes came up big on a special teams play with a 96 yard return for touchdown by Ray Small to make it 28-13. All of a sudden, Ohio State has doubled their score in 5 minutes without having a single offensive snap. If Wisconsin is going to hold a 15 minute advantage in time of possession, this is how you have to win, with special teams and defense. Wisconsin was buried at their own 5 yard line to start the next drive, but again the Badger offense kept rolling right out of trouble and moved the ball rights down the field on a long drive including 5 first downs that ended in a missed 33 yard field goal attempt. Over thirteen minutes off the clock now in the second half and OSU still has not had an offensive snap; however, they now hold a 15 point lead and will finally get the ball. Hard to believe the last time Pryor touched the ball, OSU was down by 3 points. Wisconsin has also not had a three-and-out since the beginning of the second quarter, which is a testament to how well the Badgers are playing against this OSU defense. The quarter ended with OSU picking up a first down on their first offensive possession since the two-minute drill at the end of the first half.
FOURTH QUARTER
The Badgers have their best unit on the field right now in their defense, but they will need a big play or two to turn this game back around. The Buckeyes drove right down the field quickly to start the fourth quarter and made it a three-possession game with a 37-yard field goal by Aaron Pettrey, now 31-13. Without something drastic and soon, Wisconsin will be leaving Columbus without their undefeated record. Wisconsin picked up another first down but could only punt the ball away and watch as Ohio State began working on the clock in earnest. Ohio State was forced to punt on a couple more drives, but Wisconsin put in some second-stringers for the experience and the game stayed right where it was at an 18 point margin. So on a day when the battle appeared to be the Wisconsin offense versus the Buckeye defense, it was the Wisconsin defense who stood tall and dominated most of the game surprisingly in a losing effort. Both defenses have to be happy, but the Buckeyes simply made more turnovers and big plays from those turnovers.
POSTGAME PRESS CONFERENCE
Now Ohio State and Wisconsin operate press conferences at the same time, so I chose to discuss the victory with the new Big Ten sole leaders. Coach Tressel highlighted the defense and special teams as expected, but he did say the biggest tow plays of the game for him were when the offense put up points at the end of the first half on a touchdown and the last field goal to put the game seemingly out of reach. After the Navy game, no lead is taken for granted in that clubhouse. No defensive touchdowns allowed and only 6 points surrendered is an awesome job even though Wisconsin was able to drive quite a bit, according to Tressel. The strategy on the last drive of the half was not to take advantage of a prevent defense but instead use misdirection to overcome the Wisconsin defenders who were aggressively overplaying a bit at that point in the game. As for the captains, Kurt Coleman would not comment on the suspension from last week other than to say it was the hardest week he's had to go through watching his compatriots battle without him. But coming back and getting a big interception return was just what the doctor ordered this game. Jake Ballard said the offense got mighty cold and frustrated having to watch the whole third quarter after wanting to get back out there with the momentum, but he will never complain about the defense and special teams making it easy on them. Ray Small waited four years to break out and get a touchdown in the return game, but now he has one and he feels like it could not have come on a better day. Small looks to improve both as a returner AND a receiver even though his reps at wideout have been limited in the past. The overall feeling from multiple guys going into Purdue is that they will have to make some serious adjustments to be ready but that they are continually striving to become better week to week, including the defense who some are already calling elite.
Comments from the Wisconsin side included QB Scott Tolzien saying he needs to make some better reads if they are to come to places like Columbus and leave with a victory. Defensive back Chris Maragos said that the score right before halftime was the turning point, as things were deflated at halftime a bit and did not get any better as Wisconsin gave up another interception return for touchdown on the first drive of the second half. Coach Bret Bielema thinks that they can easily win games like this and proved their worth by outplaying the Buckeyes except for the big play mistakes today. Bielema looks forward to the next challenge at home against Iowa and hopes that his defense continues to play as strong as they did to contain Pryor and company all day.
So in summary, the Buckeyes came out and did not hold the ball for very long, but the defense held up the offense yet again. It's being said in Big Ten country that OSU will likely not need to score more than 20 points per game the rest of the way to end up in the BCS and perhaps the national championship with this defense. After seeing them bend but not break again today, this defense reminds me a lot of the 2002 defense. A scrappy defense who will get the big play every once in a while will give Pryor and the offense time to develop and do just enough to win. For Wisconsin, this was still a good statement despite the final score. Wisconsin will of course be disappointed to drop out of the conference lead and lose the undefeated label, but another big opportunity awaits in the friendly confines next week to re-establish themselves and get into the national rankings. As for Ohio State, it's high time for them to regain a little national respect after gutting out a tough win after some blowouts. Ohio State proved yet again that they are the team to beat in the Big Ten and the road to the Big Ten title will go through their house. Congratulations to the Buckeyes, good luck to both the Badgers and the Buckeyes in continuing your seasons. Also, a special thanks to the Ohio State athletic department for allowing us the privilege to cover this game. We appreciate the opportunity to bring our readers great coverage from the biggest venues, and the Horseshoe is one of the best. See you next week readers!
Thursday, October 8, 2009
SEC Officials, It's Time To Go Back To School
The prelude to perhaps the most anticipated weekend in Southeastern Conference play, a defensive slugfest went into the fourth quarter between the hedges with Georgia leading 7-6. A flurry of activity excited the fans as LSU grabbed the lead, then Georgia drove right back down the field to get the go-ahead score at 13-12. However, WR A.J. Green was jubilant at the tieing score and jumped in the air into a teammate and then looked at the crowd for no more than a second as he followed his team back to the Georgia sideline. The SEC officials threw the flag for excessive celebration, which set up LSU with great field position and the Bayou Bengals took advantage, driving for the winning score. Of course the SEC officials then threw another excessive celebration flag on LSU RB Charles Scott for pointing to the sky after he scored in what appeared to be a traditional tribute to God. However, Georgia could not capitalize on their own good field position with 45 seconds left. So the Bulldogs lost a game they thought they had wrapped up in part due to an excessive celebration flag.
Let's review the NCAA excessive celebration rule. NCAA Football Rule 9-2 prohibits "any delayed, excessive, prolonged or choreographed act by which a player attempts to focus attention upon himself." the way we parse rules and statutes in the legal business is piece by piece. There are two components that must be present to throw the flag. First, the players must commit an act that is either delayed from the play, excessive, prolonged, or clearly choreographed. For Mr. Green, the celebration was immediate, impromptu, and short, which really only leaves the vague "excessive" category. The second requirement is that the act focuses attention on the player himself. The SEC officials and apparently the conference believe that the half-a-second glance was drawing attention to himself in an "excessive" manner. So Mr. Green gets stuck as a scapegoat for the Georgia fanbase and the SEC dreams of better days ahead.
Not so fast my friend! The SEC prides itself on being the best brand of college football in the country, having the best athletes from the most fertile recruiting grounds and parlaying it into three straight national championships. If the SEC is the best football in the country, they have to hire a caliber of official that will be as close to perfection as possible. The SEC cannot allow the best teams in the country play a 59 minute battle and decide the game for them. Yes, Georgia could have stepped up and made big plays to stop LSU, and yes LSU could have driven down 80-85 yards for the winning score. However, the momentum is swept out from under a team's feet when they are penalized so heavily, and a short field with only a field goal to get is a minor task. While you must overcome adversity every week, there should not be adversity of this level to begin with at the end of a game. For the best conference in America, that's simply unacceptable.
Although relying on the text seems like a swell way to operate, when the text is unclear (and excessive is unclear), the law often turns to legislative intent or the intent behind the people who enacted the rule. In the early 1990's, the NCAA rules committee was worried about the "all about me" culture rising in the NFL and wanted to curb that individualist behavior before it tainted the games. However, celebrating with teammates is not supposed to be a penalty under the rules according to those who wrote it. Unless a team choreographs or works together to go over the line (and Georgia should know something about this with the Florida shenanigans in 2007), the flag should stay in the official's pocket. In the case of Mr. Green on Saturday, he went immediately to teammates, gave the ball to the nearby official or tried to, and glanced at the crowd who was understandably going crazy after the important score. This is not even close to what the writers of the rule intended. In fact, it is precisely the type of actions that were considered alright. If you are going to throw the flag on Mr. Green, you might as well just change the rule and say teams who go ahead in the fourth quarter must kick off from the 15 yard line automatically. Sounds ridiculous, doesn't it?
With mega-games on the schedule for the rest of the season but especially this week with LSU-Florida and Mississippi-Alabama, now is the time for the SEC to admit some fault and get the rule right. For the sake of allowing the most deserving team to advance to the national title game, the officials need to come to a better consensus on the rule because the SEC champion has to be legitimate. To save the SEC the time and training, here's the best guideline I can offer. Look at the other major money sport in college, basketball. Although coaches beg for consistency from officials and rightfully so, in basketball the deal is that a ticky-tack level of contact will be called all game until the final few minutes, where incidental contact is just a part of the game. This is a system that is not quite consistent, but accepted by all because everyone has adjusted to it. This makes even more sense in this case because when will emotions run the highest but in the fourth quarter in a close game? The mere fact that collegiate athletes celebrate with their teammates instead of dance around like Ocho Cinco morons should be more than enough to pass muster in such a celebratory moment. So my tip: allow more leeway in these close games late because it's highly unlikely that players will be drawing attention to themselves rather than just taking in the awesome moment like Mr. Green probably was.
Not that what Mr. Scott did was all that more offensive. Officials will never admit to it, but there are lots of make-up calls made and this was at least consistent with the ticky-tack standard set against Georgia two minutes before. However, nothing could right the wrongs that had been set on the Bulldogs. So as much as the SEC will deny any wrongdoing and try to save face, the fact of the matter is that the SEC officials blew it on the big national stage for millions to see. Next time, it might happen to Alabama or Florida, and then it will be a much bigger deal. College football needs to scrap the rule or find an understanding like basketball if this is how the rule is going to be enforced. However, this was not quite the strangest occurrence from the past weekend.
As it turns out, a letter from former Oregon RB LaGarrette Blount's student email address arrived this week at the Oregon student newspaper. The apology contained therein was published and it sounded nice, but you cannot tell me blount waited five weeks and them wrote lines like "There is no justification for my behavior, not the heat of the moment, not the agony of defeat, and deifnitely not anything said or done by an opponent." This letter suspiciously arrives right when coach Chip Kelly announces that Blount may be allowed to get back on the field if he meets some stringent internal requirements and if this is approved by the Pac-10. While I seriously doubt Blount will ever do anything other than practice the rest of the season, this is the second time Chip Kelly has done something a little questionable (the first being sending a check refunding travel expenses for one unhappy fan who went to Boise). However, in this case, I think this is a genius plan to allow Blount to redeem himself at least in the eyes of the insiders and the pro scouts. While Blount will probably still take a financial hit for his actions, this is an appropriate gesture from the best role model Blount has. Now about that letter, that cheapens the whole situation because there's no way it looks written by Blount, and that makes him seem insincere. So a nice try, but please learn how to apologize without a team of ghostwriters. You are a college student, not the president of the United States.
It's a good thing last weekend was quiet on the gridiron, as now we have so many great games to look forward to and hot issues already discussed. Although we can only cover the top three games of the week, special mention goes to the next best three this week. Had Michigan not lost to MSU in overtime, there's no doubt the primetime showdown with undefeated Iowa would be in the top three, but that loss means this game is just a good Big Ten battle. Boston College made a statement by beating inconsistent Florida State last week, but the sledding gets much tougher as league favorite Virginia Tech hosts the Eagles in a rematch of the past two ACC Championship games. And to top that off, Thursday night we have a crucial Big XII North battle between division favorites Nebraska and Missouri. Those three games could have been the top three last week, but alas, the spotlight is bigger elsewhere this Saturday.
The first game of the week is Wisconsin at Ohio State. Only two weeks into conference play, only three teams remain undefeated in conference play: Iowa at 1-0, and these two teams at 2-0. Last year's game was a classic and Buckeye QB Terrelle Pryor had his first shining moment in leading a comeback touchdown drive with a minute left. The Wisconsin defense has not been truly tested yet this season, so expect the Buckeyes to stay on track offensively with the rushing of Brandon Saine and the dual-threat capabilities of Pryor. The other side of the match up is far more compelling though, as dominant Wisconsin RB John Clay takes on the OSU defense. Ohio State has one of the best run defenses in the country, and they have not allowed any running back to go for over 100 yards since Joe McKnight ran all over them in last year's USC game. Ohio State will be starting one backup at defensive tackle, which could make a huge difference. However, expect the Buckeyes to defend the home turf against the very game Badgers. Ohio State takes the outright conference lead with a 10 point win.
The second game of the week is Alabama visiting Mississippi. Alabama rolled over Virginia Tech and has not stopped since, while Mississippi is looking to recover from a couple very mediocre performances and a loss two weeks ago. The Rebel defense will be better than any other unit QB Greg McElroy and the Tide offense has seen all year. The Rebels have a strong defensive line that will not give McElroy much time to pick apart the Ole Miss secondary. Rebels QB Jevan Snead has had two weeks to forget with a loss at South Carolina and three interceptions last weekend. Alabama likely does not stack up equally in terms of defensive talent with Ole Miss, but the Crimson Tide is stronger than what Snead has faced recently. A game like this turns on who can control the clock with good defense and a good running game. In this case, Alabama has a major advantage with RB Mark Ingram and RB Trent Richardson. Look for Alabama to be challenged but pull away late for a 13 point win.
the top game of the week is an easy choice, as undefeated LSU hosts undefeated Florida in a primetime battle. Returning Heisman winners have been very banged up this season, and the biggest question going into this game is whether fourteen days was enough for Tim Tebow to come back from a brutal fall and concussion at Kentucky. The winner of this game has won the BCS National Championship three years running, and all early indications point towards a similar path for the winner this year. The Gators boast one of the nation's best offensive attacks with or without Tebow, but the Bayou Bengal defense is solid enough to step up and make the sledding difficult. If backup John Brantley must take the start at quarterback in the most hostile of environments, expect a much more conservative approach from Urban Meyer. On the other side of the ball, LSU has struggled in every phase of the offensive game but has managed to get by. It appears that RB Charles Scott finally got rolling late against Georgia, and he will be a focal point of the Tiger offense. If Tim Tebow plays even one half, LSU will be exposed and will not be able to keep up. I think he will do just that, and so the Gators survive and advance by a 17 point margin.
2009 GOTW Record: 6-9
Last Week: 1-2 (this trend is awful)
Fitz Top 10 - Week 5
1. Alabama
2. Texas
3. Florida
4. TCU
5. Boise State
6. Cincinnati
7. LSU
8. USC
9. Ohio State
10. Virginia Tech
Just Missed: South Florida, Missouri, Iowa, Oregon, Penn State
An absolutely mammoth weekend of college football led by late afternoon and primetime games in two of the most popular conferences in America. We will know a lot more about our top ten teams after this weekend, which will finally allow us to get a handle on how the back half of the season will play out. I personally will be taking in the Wisconsin-Ohio State game at the Horseshoe, so look for my story on Gameday in Columbus Ohio at the end of the weekend. Have a fantastic weekend wherever you find yourself this gameday.
Let's review the NCAA excessive celebration rule. NCAA Football Rule 9-2 prohibits "any delayed, excessive, prolonged or choreographed act by which a player attempts to focus attention upon himself." the way we parse rules and statutes in the legal business is piece by piece. There are two components that must be present to throw the flag. First, the players must commit an act that is either delayed from the play, excessive, prolonged, or clearly choreographed. For Mr. Green, the celebration was immediate, impromptu, and short, which really only leaves the vague "excessive" category. The second requirement is that the act focuses attention on the player himself. The SEC officials and apparently the conference believe that the half-a-second glance was drawing attention to himself in an "excessive" manner. So Mr. Green gets stuck as a scapegoat for the Georgia fanbase and the SEC dreams of better days ahead.
Not so fast my friend! The SEC prides itself on being the best brand of college football in the country, having the best athletes from the most fertile recruiting grounds and parlaying it into three straight national championships. If the SEC is the best football in the country, they have to hire a caliber of official that will be as close to perfection as possible. The SEC cannot allow the best teams in the country play a 59 minute battle and decide the game for them. Yes, Georgia could have stepped up and made big plays to stop LSU, and yes LSU could have driven down 80-85 yards for the winning score. However, the momentum is swept out from under a team's feet when they are penalized so heavily, and a short field with only a field goal to get is a minor task. While you must overcome adversity every week, there should not be adversity of this level to begin with at the end of a game. For the best conference in America, that's simply unacceptable.
Although relying on the text seems like a swell way to operate, when the text is unclear (and excessive is unclear), the law often turns to legislative intent or the intent behind the people who enacted the rule. In the early 1990's, the NCAA rules committee was worried about the "all about me" culture rising in the NFL and wanted to curb that individualist behavior before it tainted the games. However, celebrating with teammates is not supposed to be a penalty under the rules according to those who wrote it. Unless a team choreographs or works together to go over the line (and Georgia should know something about this with the Florida shenanigans in 2007), the flag should stay in the official's pocket. In the case of Mr. Green on Saturday, he went immediately to teammates, gave the ball to the nearby official or tried to, and glanced at the crowd who was understandably going crazy after the important score. This is not even close to what the writers of the rule intended. In fact, it is precisely the type of actions that were considered alright. If you are going to throw the flag on Mr. Green, you might as well just change the rule and say teams who go ahead in the fourth quarter must kick off from the 15 yard line automatically. Sounds ridiculous, doesn't it?
With mega-games on the schedule for the rest of the season but especially this week with LSU-Florida and Mississippi-Alabama, now is the time for the SEC to admit some fault and get the rule right. For the sake of allowing the most deserving team to advance to the national title game, the officials need to come to a better consensus on the rule because the SEC champion has to be legitimate. To save the SEC the time and training, here's the best guideline I can offer. Look at the other major money sport in college, basketball. Although coaches beg for consistency from officials and rightfully so, in basketball the deal is that a ticky-tack level of contact will be called all game until the final few minutes, where incidental contact is just a part of the game. This is a system that is not quite consistent, but accepted by all because everyone has adjusted to it. This makes even more sense in this case because when will emotions run the highest but in the fourth quarter in a close game? The mere fact that collegiate athletes celebrate with their teammates instead of dance around like Ocho Cinco morons should be more than enough to pass muster in such a celebratory moment. So my tip: allow more leeway in these close games late because it's highly unlikely that players will be drawing attention to themselves rather than just taking in the awesome moment like Mr. Green probably was.
Not that what Mr. Scott did was all that more offensive. Officials will never admit to it, but there are lots of make-up calls made and this was at least consistent with the ticky-tack standard set against Georgia two minutes before. However, nothing could right the wrongs that had been set on the Bulldogs. So as much as the SEC will deny any wrongdoing and try to save face, the fact of the matter is that the SEC officials blew it on the big national stage for millions to see. Next time, it might happen to Alabama or Florida, and then it will be a much bigger deal. College football needs to scrap the rule or find an understanding like basketball if this is how the rule is going to be enforced. However, this was not quite the strangest occurrence from the past weekend.
As it turns out, a letter from former Oregon RB LaGarrette Blount's student email address arrived this week at the Oregon student newspaper. The apology contained therein was published and it sounded nice, but you cannot tell me blount waited five weeks and them wrote lines like "There is no justification for my behavior, not the heat of the moment, not the agony of defeat, and deifnitely not anything said or done by an opponent." This letter suspiciously arrives right when coach Chip Kelly announces that Blount may be allowed to get back on the field if he meets some stringent internal requirements and if this is approved by the Pac-10. While I seriously doubt Blount will ever do anything other than practice the rest of the season, this is the second time Chip Kelly has done something a little questionable (the first being sending a check refunding travel expenses for one unhappy fan who went to Boise). However, in this case, I think this is a genius plan to allow Blount to redeem himself at least in the eyes of the insiders and the pro scouts. While Blount will probably still take a financial hit for his actions, this is an appropriate gesture from the best role model Blount has. Now about that letter, that cheapens the whole situation because there's no way it looks written by Blount, and that makes him seem insincere. So a nice try, but please learn how to apologize without a team of ghostwriters. You are a college student, not the president of the United States.
It's a good thing last weekend was quiet on the gridiron, as now we have so many great games to look forward to and hot issues already discussed. Although we can only cover the top three games of the week, special mention goes to the next best three this week. Had Michigan not lost to MSU in overtime, there's no doubt the primetime showdown with undefeated Iowa would be in the top three, but that loss means this game is just a good Big Ten battle. Boston College made a statement by beating inconsistent Florida State last week, but the sledding gets much tougher as league favorite Virginia Tech hosts the Eagles in a rematch of the past two ACC Championship games. And to top that off, Thursday night we have a crucial Big XII North battle between division favorites Nebraska and Missouri. Those three games could have been the top three last week, but alas, the spotlight is bigger elsewhere this Saturday.
The first game of the week is Wisconsin at Ohio State. Only two weeks into conference play, only three teams remain undefeated in conference play: Iowa at 1-0, and these two teams at 2-0. Last year's game was a classic and Buckeye QB Terrelle Pryor had his first shining moment in leading a comeback touchdown drive with a minute left. The Wisconsin defense has not been truly tested yet this season, so expect the Buckeyes to stay on track offensively with the rushing of Brandon Saine and the dual-threat capabilities of Pryor. The other side of the match up is far more compelling though, as dominant Wisconsin RB John Clay takes on the OSU defense. Ohio State has one of the best run defenses in the country, and they have not allowed any running back to go for over 100 yards since Joe McKnight ran all over them in last year's USC game. Ohio State will be starting one backup at defensive tackle, which could make a huge difference. However, expect the Buckeyes to defend the home turf against the very game Badgers. Ohio State takes the outright conference lead with a 10 point win.
The second game of the week is Alabama visiting Mississippi. Alabama rolled over Virginia Tech and has not stopped since, while Mississippi is looking to recover from a couple very mediocre performances and a loss two weeks ago. The Rebel defense will be better than any other unit QB Greg McElroy and the Tide offense has seen all year. The Rebels have a strong defensive line that will not give McElroy much time to pick apart the Ole Miss secondary. Rebels QB Jevan Snead has had two weeks to forget with a loss at South Carolina and three interceptions last weekend. Alabama likely does not stack up equally in terms of defensive talent with Ole Miss, but the Crimson Tide is stronger than what Snead has faced recently. A game like this turns on who can control the clock with good defense and a good running game. In this case, Alabama has a major advantage with RB Mark Ingram and RB Trent Richardson. Look for Alabama to be challenged but pull away late for a 13 point win.
the top game of the week is an easy choice, as undefeated LSU hosts undefeated Florida in a primetime battle. Returning Heisman winners have been very banged up this season, and the biggest question going into this game is whether fourteen days was enough for Tim Tebow to come back from a brutal fall and concussion at Kentucky. The winner of this game has won the BCS National Championship three years running, and all early indications point towards a similar path for the winner this year. The Gators boast one of the nation's best offensive attacks with or without Tebow, but the Bayou Bengal defense is solid enough to step up and make the sledding difficult. If backup John Brantley must take the start at quarterback in the most hostile of environments, expect a much more conservative approach from Urban Meyer. On the other side of the ball, LSU has struggled in every phase of the offensive game but has managed to get by. It appears that RB Charles Scott finally got rolling late against Georgia, and he will be a focal point of the Tiger offense. If Tim Tebow plays even one half, LSU will be exposed and will not be able to keep up. I think he will do just that, and so the Gators survive and advance by a 17 point margin.
2009 GOTW Record: 6-9
Last Week: 1-2 (this trend is awful)
Fitz Top 10 - Week 5
1. Alabama
2. Texas
3. Florida
4. TCU
5. Boise State
6. Cincinnati
7. LSU
8. USC
9. Ohio State
10. Virginia Tech
Just Missed: South Florida, Missouri, Iowa, Oregon, Penn State
An absolutely mammoth weekend of college football led by late afternoon and primetime games in two of the most popular conferences in America. We will know a lot more about our top ten teams after this weekend, which will finally allow us to get a handle on how the back half of the season will play out. I personally will be taking in the Wisconsin-Ohio State game at the Horseshoe, so look for my story on Gameday in Columbus Ohio at the end of the weekend. Have a fantastic weekend wherever you find yourself this gameday.
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Party Like It's 2007 - Fellowship of the Undefeated
Turn back the clocks a little bit to a time when national title contenders changed on a weekly basis. A time when nobody was safe, and unknown programs leapt to the top of the rankings. A time when it was not a one-loss SEC team playing for a national championship, but a TWO-loss team. You shouldn't have to think too far back because this happened only two years ago. As the calendar turns to October in the 2009 season, it appears that the unthinkable could happen again. The top 10 was not the place to be on last Saturday, as four of the top ten went down in flames. All of a sudden the small guys like Cincinnati, Houston, and Iowa are legitimate contenders, much like South Florida, Boston College, Missouri, and West Virginia in 2007. Does the next month have as much craziness in store?
Let's start with the crew of undefeated teams after one month in the season. Seventeen out of 120 FCS teams remain in the X-0 sweepstakes, in order of national rankings: Florida, Texas, Alabama, LSU, Boise State, Cincinnati, TCU, Houston, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Auburn, South Florida, UCLA, Wisconsin, and Texas A&M. Some of these teams we expected to be here such as Florida and Texas, others are complete surpises such as the Aggies and the Bruins. If 2007 is any indication, whomever survives the October gauntlet will probably be among a short list of 3-5 teams at the front of the line. Let's play a little game of eliminate the frauds for the next five weeks on the schedule. This weekend we will lose
The first weekend of October will bring four casualties. LSU is a better team than Georgia, but the Tigers will be looking ahead to Florida. Texas A&M gets no respect, but Arkansas will prove why. Minnesota will defend their new stadium and take back the axe from Wisconsin, and Auburn will struggle as Tennessee gets back on track. This leaves 13 for the second weekend of October. This weekend also cuts another four contenders from the fellowship, starting early on Thursday with Nebraska knocking off Missouri. UCLA will be yet another team dominated by the Oregon Ducks, while Michigan will lose a battle of undefeated teams against Iowa. The big fish gone this weekend will be Florida, which will not drop them out of the championship race by any means. However, LSU will be right back in the mix after this colossal battle of the last 3 national championship winners.
Two weeks into October and the herd is thinned to nine. The third weekend of October will bring another battle of undefeateds as Cincinnati travels to Tampa and proves that the loss of Matt Grothe will catch up to South Florida. Iowa will come off their huge win and come up short in Madison. The fourth weekend in October will see TCU and Kansas drop tough road games that will cripple their conference title hopes against BYU and Oklahoma. Going into Halloween weekend, there will be five teams left chasing the dream, but sadly there will be a Trick waiting for the Longhorns instead of a treat at Stillwater. Which means going into November, the only four teams still standing at X-0 in the fellowship will be Alabama, Boise State, Houston, and Cincinnati. Make no mistake about it, this is the season an undefeated non-BCS conference school could play for the national championship. However, there will still be huge hurdles to climb in November for all these contenders, and teams like Ohio State and Oklahoma have strong back ends to their schedules and could get back in the mix. If 2009 is anything like 2007, even the two-loss teams (in the SEC) will not be eliminated until it's all said and done in early December.
Thankfully for the teams who lost last weekend, seasons are not won and lost in September usually. Except for California perhaps, which will be very hard pressed to impress anyone after losing by 39 to an Oregon squad with plenty problems of their own. However, Miami, Penn State, and Mississippi still have enough big teams left on the schedule to make a run back at the top, alongside top one-loss teams Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Ohio State, and USC. October might not seem like the sexiest time of the season, but it becomes very hard to survive the November mess if you are outside the top 10-12 after Halloween, so now is the time to make some noise and impress some voters. You have to be careful how far you go to impress voters though, as proven by Florida with the injury to Tim Tebow. Urban Meyer will get one free pass thanks to the bye week this week, but so many high profile players have already gone down and it will be a delicate balancing act trying to rack up huge statistics and scores while protecting your most talented players.
While it is completely understandable that the MAC and the Sun Belt cannot make it through September with any teams unscathed against strong competition, the only other conference lacking and undefeated team is the ACC. This conference is so hard to figure out on a week-to-week basis, I'd wager the bloggers covering that conference are some of the most content people in the world trying to unravel the riddle. The ACC was filled with a bunch of mediocrity last season, but that did not stop Virginia Tech from winning a BCS bowl for the conference for the first time in 7 years. Virginia Tech looked like a fraud against Alabama, but that's not all that surprising considering just how good the Crimson Tide is. Miami, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Florida State, and NC State will all have something to say before it is all over. However, each of these teams has had shockingly bad performances and big losses, so the parity and mediocrity seems to remain. One can only hope that the ACC is a little better on a whole this season, but that will not help the conference reputation as they beat up on each other.
One final note before we turn our attention away from the opening month: this is the time of year trigger-happy athletic departments begin considering the ejection seat for struggling coaches. While there may be no hotter seat overall than Charlie Weis, there's no way Notre Dame would pull the rug out in the middle of a season, especially at 3-1. Who will win the Tommy Tuberville sweepstakes of 2009? Leading contenders are Al Groh at Virginia, Ralph Friedgen at Maryland, and Steve Kragthorpe at Louisville. Virginia and Maryland are consistently bad now in a mediocre conference, and Kragthorpe is not turning a proud Big East program around quickly enough. Smart money is on Al Groh, as it was questionable if Virginia would even bring him back at the beginning of the season. There's opportunity to set some relationships with a new coaching staff and the recruits in motion if virginia acts quickly, and in the ACC, they might be a contender in only a year or two. But perhaps it will be a complete blindside. We'll wait and see.
The first game of the week is an elimination game in the Pac-10, as USC and California lock up with one conference loss apiece already. This was dubbed as the game of the season in the conference, and only Oregon looks like they may interfere with that conclusion after blasting California by 39. Cal has played very well at home so far and will be looking to get Heisman-contender RB Javhid Best back on track. The sledding will likely be tough against the strong front seven of the Trojans. However, the Trojans will also not find the going easy against California, with Matt Barkley nursing his injury still and senior RB Stafon Johnson out for the season after a weight room accident. USC has found a way to get up for the big games, and this is still a big game. However, Barkley struggled in his one appearance on the road in Columbus, and California knows the USC offense much better than the Buckeyes. The team who establishes a running attack first should win this game, and you just have to favor the stable of running backs left for USC including Joe McKnight over the one-man Best show. USC wins a tight one by 6.
The second game of the week is Oklahoma's visit to Miami, which is another battle between teams surprised to have one loss. In Miami's case, they are probably happy with a 2-1 start and a 3-1 start would be a steal given the four ranked teams they will have played. QB Jacory Harris faced a tough Virginia Tech defense and wilted, and Oklahoma is probably a whole other level ahead of the Hokies on that side of the ball. Oklahoma has not given up points since the go-ahead touchdown to BYU, and only 14 points overall. Look for Oklahoma to pressure Harris much like the Hokies did, and they will force Harris to beat them individually. That's too tall a task in all likelihood. On the other side of the ball, Miami should play tough, but the return of Sam Bradford could spark an already rolling offense for the Sooners. Oklahoma wins in another rout against Miami by 21.
The game of the week honors this weekend go back down south to the SEC as LSU visit Georgia. Each of these teams has played very interesting games so far, and this may be the game where we finally figure out what each team is made of before they face Florida this month. Georgia survived a tough roadtrip to Arizona State and has been far more potent on offense than expected without Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno. LSU has been strong on defense and held up in a couple of pressure situations the past two weeks at Washington and versus Mississippi State. Look for this to be the matchup that decides the game. On the other side of the ball, LSU has struggled mightily having the worst offense in the conference and one of the bottom 15 in the country. Georgia has been relying on the prolific offense though because the defense has allowed teams like South Carolina to get into shootouts with the Bulldogs. Mark Richt has had Les Miles's number thus far, and one has to imagine that LSU will be caught looking past this tough battle just a bit to the Florida game. Georgia sends the Bayou Bengals packing with a 10 point win.
2009 GOTW Record: 5-7
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 - Week 4
1. Alabama
2. Texas
3. Florida
4. Boise State
5. TCU
6. Cincinnati
7. Houston
8. Virginia Tech
9. LSU
10. Oklahoma
Just Missed: USC, Ohio State, South Florida, Iowa, Missouri
Well this weekend I will blissfully not be moving after doing two very long weekends of labor, so I look forward to going through some boxes and actually getting to enjoy my new house a bit. This will certainly include some TV time to take in the opening games for the month of October. While 2009 looks a lot like 2007 so far, teams still have to set the foundation now for BCS and national championship runs. Look for more surprises in the top 15 as unheralded teams deal with high praise and success while conference showdowns continue. We'll see you next week when the Fellowship of the Undefeated will definitely not be 17 anymore.
Let's start with the crew of undefeated teams after one month in the season. Seventeen out of 120 FCS teams remain in the X-0 sweepstakes, in order of national rankings: Florida, Texas, Alabama, LSU, Boise State, Cincinnati, TCU, Houston, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Auburn, South Florida, UCLA, Wisconsin, and Texas A&M. Some of these teams we expected to be here such as Florida and Texas, others are complete surpises such as the Aggies and the Bruins. If 2007 is any indication, whomever survives the October gauntlet will probably be among a short list of 3-5 teams at the front of the line. Let's play a little game of eliminate the frauds for the next five weeks on the schedule. This weekend we will lose
The first weekend of October will bring four casualties. LSU is a better team than Georgia, but the Tigers will be looking ahead to Florida. Texas A&M gets no respect, but Arkansas will prove why. Minnesota will defend their new stadium and take back the axe from Wisconsin, and Auburn will struggle as Tennessee gets back on track. This leaves 13 for the second weekend of October. This weekend also cuts another four contenders from the fellowship, starting early on Thursday with Nebraska knocking off Missouri. UCLA will be yet another team dominated by the Oregon Ducks, while Michigan will lose a battle of undefeated teams against Iowa. The big fish gone this weekend will be Florida, which will not drop them out of the championship race by any means. However, LSU will be right back in the mix after this colossal battle of the last 3 national championship winners.
Two weeks into October and the herd is thinned to nine. The third weekend of October will bring another battle of undefeateds as Cincinnati travels to Tampa and proves that the loss of Matt Grothe will catch up to South Florida. Iowa will come off their huge win and come up short in Madison. The fourth weekend in October will see TCU and Kansas drop tough road games that will cripple their conference title hopes against BYU and Oklahoma. Going into Halloween weekend, there will be five teams left chasing the dream, but sadly there will be a Trick waiting for the Longhorns instead of a treat at Stillwater. Which means going into November, the only four teams still standing at X-0 in the fellowship will be Alabama, Boise State, Houston, and Cincinnati. Make no mistake about it, this is the season an undefeated non-BCS conference school could play for the national championship. However, there will still be huge hurdles to climb in November for all these contenders, and teams like Ohio State and Oklahoma have strong back ends to their schedules and could get back in the mix. If 2009 is anything like 2007, even the two-loss teams (in the SEC) will not be eliminated until it's all said and done in early December.
Thankfully for the teams who lost last weekend, seasons are not won and lost in September usually. Except for California perhaps, which will be very hard pressed to impress anyone after losing by 39 to an Oregon squad with plenty problems of their own. However, Miami, Penn State, and Mississippi still have enough big teams left on the schedule to make a run back at the top, alongside top one-loss teams Virginia Tech, Oklahoma, Ohio State, and USC. October might not seem like the sexiest time of the season, but it becomes very hard to survive the November mess if you are outside the top 10-12 after Halloween, so now is the time to make some noise and impress some voters. You have to be careful how far you go to impress voters though, as proven by Florida with the injury to Tim Tebow. Urban Meyer will get one free pass thanks to the bye week this week, but so many high profile players have already gone down and it will be a delicate balancing act trying to rack up huge statistics and scores while protecting your most talented players.
While it is completely understandable that the MAC and the Sun Belt cannot make it through September with any teams unscathed against strong competition, the only other conference lacking and undefeated team is the ACC. This conference is so hard to figure out on a week-to-week basis, I'd wager the bloggers covering that conference are some of the most content people in the world trying to unravel the riddle. The ACC was filled with a bunch of mediocrity last season, but that did not stop Virginia Tech from winning a BCS bowl for the conference for the first time in 7 years. Virginia Tech looked like a fraud against Alabama, but that's not all that surprising considering just how good the Crimson Tide is. Miami, North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Florida State, and NC State will all have something to say before it is all over. However, each of these teams has had shockingly bad performances and big losses, so the parity and mediocrity seems to remain. One can only hope that the ACC is a little better on a whole this season, but that will not help the conference reputation as they beat up on each other.
One final note before we turn our attention away from the opening month: this is the time of year trigger-happy athletic departments begin considering the ejection seat for struggling coaches. While there may be no hotter seat overall than Charlie Weis, there's no way Notre Dame would pull the rug out in the middle of a season, especially at 3-1. Who will win the Tommy Tuberville sweepstakes of 2009? Leading contenders are Al Groh at Virginia, Ralph Friedgen at Maryland, and Steve Kragthorpe at Louisville. Virginia and Maryland are consistently bad now in a mediocre conference, and Kragthorpe is not turning a proud Big East program around quickly enough. Smart money is on Al Groh, as it was questionable if Virginia would even bring him back at the beginning of the season. There's opportunity to set some relationships with a new coaching staff and the recruits in motion if virginia acts quickly, and in the ACC, they might be a contender in only a year or two. But perhaps it will be a complete blindside. We'll wait and see.
The first game of the week is an elimination game in the Pac-10, as USC and California lock up with one conference loss apiece already. This was dubbed as the game of the season in the conference, and only Oregon looks like they may interfere with that conclusion after blasting California by 39. Cal has played very well at home so far and will be looking to get Heisman-contender RB Javhid Best back on track. The sledding will likely be tough against the strong front seven of the Trojans. However, the Trojans will also not find the going easy against California, with Matt Barkley nursing his injury still and senior RB Stafon Johnson out for the season after a weight room accident. USC has found a way to get up for the big games, and this is still a big game. However, Barkley struggled in his one appearance on the road in Columbus, and California knows the USC offense much better than the Buckeyes. The team who establishes a running attack first should win this game, and you just have to favor the stable of running backs left for USC including Joe McKnight over the one-man Best show. USC wins a tight one by 6.
The second game of the week is Oklahoma's visit to Miami, which is another battle between teams surprised to have one loss. In Miami's case, they are probably happy with a 2-1 start and a 3-1 start would be a steal given the four ranked teams they will have played. QB Jacory Harris faced a tough Virginia Tech defense and wilted, and Oklahoma is probably a whole other level ahead of the Hokies on that side of the ball. Oklahoma has not given up points since the go-ahead touchdown to BYU, and only 14 points overall. Look for Oklahoma to pressure Harris much like the Hokies did, and they will force Harris to beat them individually. That's too tall a task in all likelihood. On the other side of the ball, Miami should play tough, but the return of Sam Bradford could spark an already rolling offense for the Sooners. Oklahoma wins in another rout against Miami by 21.
The game of the week honors this weekend go back down south to the SEC as LSU visit Georgia. Each of these teams has played very interesting games so far, and this may be the game where we finally figure out what each team is made of before they face Florida this month. Georgia survived a tough roadtrip to Arizona State and has been far more potent on offense than expected without Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno. LSU has been strong on defense and held up in a couple of pressure situations the past two weeks at Washington and versus Mississippi State. Look for this to be the matchup that decides the game. On the other side of the ball, LSU has struggled mightily having the worst offense in the conference and one of the bottom 15 in the country. Georgia has been relying on the prolific offense though because the defense has allowed teams like South Carolina to get into shootouts with the Bulldogs. Mark Richt has had Les Miles's number thus far, and one has to imagine that LSU will be caught looking past this tough battle just a bit to the Florida game. Georgia sends the Bayou Bengals packing with a 10 point win.
2009 GOTW Record: 5-7
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 - Week 4
1. Alabama
2. Texas
3. Florida
4. Boise State
5. TCU
6. Cincinnati
7. Houston
8. Virginia Tech
9. LSU
10. Oklahoma
Just Missed: USC, Ohio State, South Florida, Iowa, Missouri
Well this weekend I will blissfully not be moving after doing two very long weekends of labor, so I look forward to going through some boxes and actually getting to enjoy my new house a bit. This will certainly include some TV time to take in the opening games for the month of October. While 2009 looks a lot like 2007 so far, teams still have to set the foundation now for BCS and national championship runs. Look for more surprises in the top 15 as unheralded teams deal with high praise and success while conference showdowns continue. We'll see you next week when the Fellowship of the Undefeated will definitely not be 17 anymore.
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