When Division I-A teams added a 12th game a few years ago, most teams have added a D-IAA team instead of a big game. However, in recent years there has been an effort for most teams to put at least one good non-conference game on the slate. With the dominance of the SEC in recent bowl seasons, it is clear that taking on a tough schedule overall is important. The proliferation of better games has made the overall job easier for the BCS and the voters, since most of the top teams are tested in one or more inter-region games before bowl season. Let's look at the top ten non-conference battles slated for 2008.
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10. Missouri vs. Illinois at St. Louis, August 30
Last season this game game down to the last few seconds, with Missouri getting a very important win. Missouri went on to the #1 ranking going into the last week of the regular season before dropping to Oklahoma and missing out on the BCS inexplicably. The real injustice was that Missouri beat Kansas and Illinois, both BCS bowl teams. The Tigers bring back more than the Illini this season and will probably be out for revenge for the BCS slight. Both quarterbacks Juice Williams and Chase Daniel will be fun to watch in this one.
9. Utah at Michigan, August 30
Do you remember the last time Michigan had a tough opener on opening weekend? It was last year against Hawaii...oh wait, they cancelled that and scheduled an easier game against Appalachian State...oh wait, that did not work out so well. The bad news is that Utah is possibly as good as Hawaii was last year, and this will be the first game breaking in the Rich Rodriguez regime. The possibility is ripe for another upset in the Big House, but this time the non-BCS school will not be underestimated.
8. Clemson vs. Alabama at Atlanta, August 30
These two teams are Southern teams that seem to be an enigma every season. Both have solid coaches in Tommy Bowden and Nick Saban, but neither has immediately lived up to huge expectations to join the BCS party. This is one of the more intriguing opening games, much like California and Tennessee last year. We will find out in all likelihood which of these teams is legitimate and which is a pretender in Week 1 this year instead of Week 10.
7. Kansas at South Florida, September 13
Much like #10 on this list, this game would have been a lot better last year when both programs were surprising top 10 teams. Kansas won their first ever BCS bowl game last season, and South Florida was in contention for the BCS late into the season by beating West Virginia. The fans in Lawrence are hoping for another banner year after that BCS victory and a NCAA basketball championship. Expect both teams to come down to earth a bit this season, but both are now officially in contention for the BCS from the start of the year. This game will determine which team is back with more.
6. Virginia Tech vs. East Carolina at Charlotte, August 30
Outside of BYU and maybe Utah, the most serious non-BCS conference team with BCS aspirations may actually be the Pirates of East Carolina. ECU plays a tough non-conference slate every season, and this year is no different with this game, Virginia, and West Virginia all on the schedule. Still, the Pirates were very close to winning this game last year and return more talent than the Hokies do. This could be the sleeper game of the opening weekend.
5. Wisconsin at Fresno State, September 13
While there are many good games on this weekend, this one stands out. Fresno State has, for better or for worse, been willing to take on anyone, anywhere, anytime. Now teams are respecting the Bulldogs with return visits, and a cross-country trip for Wisconsin will be a tough test early. Wisconsin is the best chance the country has of knocking off the Buckeyes in the Big Ten this season, so quite a few eyes will be keeping tabs on this game to see if the Badgers can handle the heat of a tough road game. Of course there's another game that day that may get more attention, more on that later.
4. Tennessee at UCLA, September 1
Yet again the Volunteers open up against a tough Pac-10 opponent, and they hope this roadtrip goes better. It is tough to open up across the country away from the huge home-field advantage in Knoxville. UCLA has a real chance to improve with the upgrade to Rick Neuheisel after a few good years under Coach Karl Dorrell. This may be too tough of an opener though, as the Volunteers seem to have better players on paper. If UCLA can take advantage of early-season mistakes, perhaps this Monday night game will be a classic.
3. Georgia at Arizona State, September 20
The jump to the top 3 games is big from 4-10, primarily because the top dogs of the college football are involved. Georgia is the favorite to overcome the past two national champions Florida and LSU to win the SEC and likely go to the BCS Championship game. Before tackling the SEC schedule, the Bulldogs must survive a trip to the desert to take on last season's surprise in the Pac-10, the Sun Devils. Dennis Erickson will look to improve even more and maybe give USC a real run for their money this season, but a win over Georgia would be huge to their BCS aspirations.
2. Auburn at West Virginia, October 23
There always seems to be one of these games in the top 10 that happens late in the season, and this one comes in the thick of the Big East and SEC season. This Thursday night showcase in Morgantown will be a good opportunity for West Virginia to really gauge how they stack up in the country. Some might write West Virginia off nationally, but they are extremely tough to beat in Morgantown and are BCS bowl champions now. Expect a good game.
1. Ohio State at USC, September 13
Just like the OSU-Texas matchups of 2005-06, the Buckeyes have added another two-year gem to the schedule against the challenge-anybody USC Trojans. This pairs probably the two most dominant teams of the decade, with USC having two national titles and six BCS bowls while Ohio State has one national title and 5 BCS bowls. This is classic Big Ten - Pac 10 rivalry, and these could settle once and for all the best program of the decade. Great talent returns for both teams and both have a couple of the top 5 coaches in the game. You absolutely do not want to miss this game for anything, except maybe the birth of your child! Let's hope like the first OSU-Texas game, this one lives up to the hype.
So there's the list of the best games from the 2008 non-conference season. There are many more gems in the conference season, but there will be plenty to watch for in September including the best game of the season overall. We'll see you in a couple weeks after my bar exam, and we'll get into the best of conferences in the Big Ten and SEC. See you in August!
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Friday, July 25, 2008
2008 Football Preview: Conference USA
Conference USA stands for the proposition that the more things change, the more they stay the same. Despite Tulsa and UCF losing the anchors of their teams, both are expected to meet in a second-straight C-USA championship and the third time in four seasons. Still, there are a couple of other serious contenders and darkhorses to be found. Other squads like East Carolina, Houston, and Memphis look to field strong teams this fall, too, meaning it will be a battle right down to the finish this fall. Let's jump into the battles of the other southeastern conference.
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Three Keys | Team-by-Team Analysis
Projected Standings | All-Conference Teams
THREE KEYS
1. Well if there's one thing about non-BCS conferences, it is coaching. There's always guys stepping up, guys stepping down, and guys looking over their shoulder at assistants. This season brings June Jones into the mix to join other greats like Mike Price and George O'Leary. There's a lot of talent, and one hopes the C-USA can keep it for as long as possible.
2. The second key will be how good the defenses are in the league as a whole. UCF will continue romping to more titles if they are the only competent defense in the league, as you cannot win every shootout, no matter how good your offense is. Look for defense to be what the conference focuses on this year and for a while.
3. The third key is SMU. Everybody knows East Carolina, Tulsa, Houston, and UCF are going to compete for the title, but one interesting team to watch is SMU. Sure, they were crappy last year and have not been good since the death penalty was lifted...but you have to believe June Jones can turn this program around. How long nobody knows, but watch out contenders because this is no gimme anymore.
TEAM-BY-TEAM ANALYSIS
East Carolina
OFFENSE: Last season both Patrick Pinkney and Rob Kass split time almost equally in the quarterback job. This experience will help no matter who leads coming out of summer practice. Three returning offensive linemen will also help the offense move the ball while they break in new running backs.
DEFENSE: Nine starters return from last year's unit that really carried the team to its best finish in conference history. Some young guns will compete, especially at linebacker, but expect this unit to be the best defense in the East division. The only possible weakness is perhaps defending the short pass.
SPECIAL TEAMS: PK Ben Hartman should be better than his 13-22 numbers last season, and the punter and leading kick returner are back as well. Again, this unit will be good for the Pirates.
COACHING: Skip Holtz returns for his fourth season at the helm, and he has really turned around the East Carolina program. The Pirates consistently challenge the big boys from their region and it has started to pay off. With an experienced team this year, expectations are even higher, but Holtz can handle them.
SCHEDULE: The Pirates do not have an easy out-of-conference game, as they play Virginia Tech and West Virginia to start the season, at NC State and Virginia later. As for the conference schedule, the only possible roadbumps are a home game against Houston and a road game at UCF that should decide the Eastern division. Thankfully, ECU gets a bye before UCF.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... SS Van Eskridge had over 100 tackles last season, and this year he will continue to rack up the stops when ECU needs back-line defense. He will fully break out if he learns how to break up some passes in the middle this season.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... It's hard to imagine East Carolina beating Virginia Tech in the opener, but they certainly have a chance if Beamer's boys come out slow in 2008. All the other games are winnable, so the best case is 11-1 and a BCS bowl on the line in the conference title game.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... Even if the Pirates stumble through September, it's hard to imagine them doing any worse than last season. 7-5 would be a bad season for these guys.
MAKE OR BREAK: No matter how the early part of the season goes, the only thing standing between this team and a first appearance in the C-USA title game is a road game at defending champion UCF. This will be the game that determines whether ECU is ready to become a real contender, even have BCS aspirations.
Houston
OFFENSE: The offense carried the team in 2007, but only 6 returning starters come back and most of them on the line. Terrance Ganaway will be the new running back, and he gained 550 yards as a backup last season. Look for some bumps in the road as QB Case Keenum adjusts to new receivers.
DEFENSE: The defense was statistically the best in the conference last season, and 8 starters return. The big playmaker DE Phillip Hunt will likely up his sack total, and all of the defensive backfield will intercept a lot of balls.
SPECIAL TEAMS: P Chase Turner is the only returning starter for this unit, as Jonathan Gibson will take over the kicking duties and the return game will try out some new guys. This could be one area to really gameplan an attack against the Cougars.
COACHING: Kevin Sumlin becomes the first African-American head coach for a Texas Division I-A program, and he's well experienced from coordinating at Oklahoma and Texas A&M. He may go through some growing pains, but he's a good man to replace Art Briles and continue the upward swing of this program.
SCHEDULE: The schedule is tough early, as there's only one home game in each of the months of August, September, and October. Road games at Oklahoma State and East Carolina are the worst of it, although a November home game against Tulsa is probably the biggest game.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... RB Terrance Ganaway is set for an absolutely monster season, with the offensive line mostly intact and taking over the primary rushing duties. He will be the man when things get tough on offense, and that could lead to 1500+ yards.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... An upset on the road at Oklahoma State is not out of the question, and the Cougars get division favorite Tulsa in the middle of a three-game homestand in November. 7-1 and a division title are as good as it will get.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... If Houston's offense is not back to good this season and the defense begins to struggle, road games at Marshall, Colorado State, and Rice are all very possible losses. That would drop the cougars to 6-6 and 4-4, and probably home for the holidays.
MAKE OR BREAK: One make or break factor is how well the offense gets together, but the real key will be the November game hosting Tulsa. That one will likely decide the Western division.
Marshall
OFFENSE: Eight starters return to a unit that had little trouble moving the ball. A new quarterback will need to be broken in, but the job should be easy with the interior linemen back and tons of receiving talent between TE Cody Slate, WR Darius Passmore, WR Emmanuel Spann, and WR E.J. Wynn.
DEFENSE: While this unit was nothing special last season, but 8 starters return and a couple JUCO transfers will join DE Albert McClellan (2006 conference player of the year, out by injury in 2007) will change that. As long as this unit can start getting more pressure on opposing quarterbacks and make some turnovers, this year could be a winner.
SPECIAL TEAMS: A big loss in PK and P Anthony Binswanger will need to be filled, but there are two viable contenders at each position. The return game should be strong with C.J. Spillman and J.J. Johnson handling most of the duties.
COACHING: Since leaving Ohio State, Mark Snyder has had some serious problems turning around the Thundering Herd, only winning 12 games in 3 seasons. He's got the right defensive framework in place, and now he just needs players to step up and work the system.
SCHEDULE: The schedule is a nightmare for Thundering Herd fans hoping to turn things around. Other than the opener against D-IAA Illinois State, the out of conference schedule defines brutal: at Wisconsin, at West Virginia, vs. Cincinnati. All the really good conference teams other than ECU are home games, which means nothing will come easy in 2008.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... TE Cody Slate is just the kind of guy every quarterback wishes he had to go to in tough situations. Slate led the team in receiving last season and will likely have a chance at 1000+ yards this season, a monster year for a tight end.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... There's enough returning talent everywhere to think this team could make some serious noise. With the rough schedule, 7-5 would be a great year.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... There's no denying that this team has underahcieved under Snyder, and that trend could continue with this schedule if the players get discouraged. 2-10 and a lone win against UAB in C-USA could happen.
MAKE OR BREAK: The key for a team with a lot of experience will be can they build on it and maybe sneak a win away from a heavily favored opponent early. If that happens, then the confidence will be there in November when all the important conference opponents come into Huntington.
Memphis
OFFENSE: Another new quarterback needs to be broken in, but things will be easier with all four leading receivers back in 2008. Look for WR Duke Calhoun and WR Carlos Singleton to eliminate the growing pains. If the running game gets going at all, this unit will make waves.
DEFENSE: Despite returning nine starters, there's a lot of unanswered questions and holes to fill. The defense needs to hope the offense keeps up the great play to support this unit. The defensive line is the strength of the unit, led by Clinton McDonald.
SPECIAL TEAMS: K Matt Reagan and P Brent Sutherland were excellent when called upon last season, and look for both to improve even more in 2008. The return game needs new leaders, but there's plenty of burners to fill the gaps.
COACHING: Tommy West has led the Tigers to nearly .500 overall in 7 seasons, and this year he may improve even more. Just when West appeared to be on the hot seat, he came up with a good 6-2 C-USA season last year. He could do it again, escaping job pressure.
SCHEDULE: Despite opening at Mississippi, the Tigers really have no tough games until Louisville comes to town October 10. A roadtrip to East Carolina follows, but every other game should be winnable.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... This is going to be a very strange pick, but I think P Brent Sutherland is the most important cog in the defensive framework. Sutherland will need to blast some big punts to keep the defense in favorable field position, and his 40 yard-per-punt average may improve and become one of the best in the country.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... This team could steal a home game against Central Florida and hold serve against all except ECU thanks to the easy West division schedule. 10-2 and a second-place division finish are possible if the defense becomes an average unit and the offense clicks.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... The running game could struggle, making the offense inconsistent. The defense cannot carry this team, and Memphis could fall all the way to 3 or 4 wins.
MAKE OR BREAK: The key as evidenced above is definitely plugging someone into the running game who actually threatens opposing defenses, causing them to put more than 3 guys on the line to stop the run. If teams can drop 7 and 8 men routinely in heavy coverage, this offense and the Tigers overall will have a tough season.
Rice
OFFENSE: Best offense in the conference is not an understatement, at least statistically. The problem is that the team is very one-dimensional. With senior QB Chase Clement and top receivers back, the only key will be if RB Justin Hill and C.J. Ugokwe can make something happen in the rushing game.
DEFENSE: The lack of a rushing game did not stop Rice last season and likely will not again, but the defense is possibly the worst in the country. Some experience comes back, but it's not very talented experience. DE Scott Soloman is the only bright spot going into his sophomore year.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Clark Fangmeier was not called upon much last season as placekicker, but he will get lots of extra points if nothing else. A new punter Mark Brundage will try his best and the return game is up in the air after spring practices.
COACHING: David Bailiff begins his second season after a 3-9 campaign, and he probably expects growth this season. Unless the defense surprises, Rice will again be a flash in the pan that might steal a win or two this season. A long rebuilding process continues.
SCHEDULE: At least Rice gets to open against the only team in their division they should beat, and SMU is coming to the Owls home no less. After that, it gets tough. Everything is winnable except for the road game at Texas, but this defense will lose a lot more games before it gets better.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... QB Chase Clement rushed for nearly 600 yards last year while passing for 29 TD and over 3300 yards. There could be even more this year. Hesiman candidates do not come from losing teams, but if they did, this would be a frontrunner.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... Who knows, Rice could surprise and have a decent defense. That's all it would take to make it to 6-6 and continue the slow climb out of the C-USA cellar.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... Things go like last year, except Rice chokes against the likes of SMU or North Texas. 1-11 is possible with no wins in conference.
MAKE OR BREAK: Nothing will determine how far this team goes like the defense. All it takes with this offense is a mediocre defense, but even that may be too much to ask. There's no doubt where the recruiting focus should be for the next five years.
SMU
OFFENSE: Here comes a new direction. The Mustangs have been bottom-of-the-barrel since coming back from the death penalty, but the final pieces of a comeback may come now that former Hawaii coach June Jones takes over. SMU will likely transform from a team like Rice into a team like Hawaii or Texas Tech very quickly, but maybe not this season as the cupboards are fairly bare. Still, there are enough good receivers to start the run and gun revolution.
DEFENSE: This unit was as bad as Rice last season, and really brought the demise of the team and its coach. Still, with the new look offense this unit needs to step up and help out if SMU is going to experience a quick turnaround. The best players are corners Bryan McCann and Derrius Bell.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Punter and Kicker Thomas Morstead was an all-conference punter last season, and the only thing stopping him from doing it again is the new-look improved offense. The return game should improve this season.
COACHING: What more can you say than June Jones took Hawaii from 0-12 to 9-4 in one season and to the BCS in a few short seasons. SMU should be an easier assignment, but maybe not as quickly.
SCHEDULE: The first two weeks should be wins against Rice and Texas State, but you may want to tune in for the Rice and Texas Tech games. Should be tons of points and passing in both. Expect SMU to steal a couple of games and be competitive, but no bowl with this schedule.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... WR Emmanuel Sanders gained almost 900 yards last season, and there will be more than enough oppotunities to bust out to a big year this year.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... Really, a turnaround similar to 0-12 to 9-4 is possible. SMU could put it all together, overachieve and end up bowling in 2008. 7-5 could happen even with the relatively tough schedule.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... It's hard to imagine Jones staying down for long, but change does not happen at major programs overnight. 1-11 is the bottom possibility if the defense stays as bad as last year.
MAKE OR BREAK: The defense is important, but is the offense deep enough to run the Jones system in just one year? It seems doubtful, but the coach is a miracle worker and may just surprise everyone. This is the hardest team to predict in the conference for that reason.
Southern Miss
OFFENSE: RB Damion Fletcher is the returning centerpiece of a new spread offense. Flethcer will need to take the pressure off a new quarterback, probably freshman Austin Davis. The offensive line also needs to reload.
DEFENSE: The defense had a special year last season, but the entire line, which was the anchor of the unit, is gone now. The back seven is still in good shape, but corner C.J. Bailey should break out and lead the coverages.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Britt Barefoot has the best kicker name in years, and he may take over the placekicking from returning starter Justin Estes as well as the punting Barefoot did last season. The return game is still up in the air but should be decent.
COACHING: Well this was a surprise change of direction. After 14 straight winning seasons, the school cans Jeff Bower and goes with Larry Fedora, an unknown. Nobody knows what to expect.
SCHEDULE: The home schedule is not that bad this season, but Boise State and ECU will be tough. The road schedule is pretty brutal though, and may hold Southern Miss to its first non-winning season since 1994.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... LB Gerald McRath is the true anchor in the center of the defense, and he will be called upon to help out in coverage as well as shore up an entirely new D-line. This could create a breakout situation for the talented McRath.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... Southern Miss could keep on chugging, maybe get a little better than last year, but not quite enough to compete with East Carolina. Still, 7-1 and 9-3 is possible.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... The Golden Eagles take a big step back adjusting to their new coach and new offense, and drop from bowl contention in October before the schedule gets rough. Southern Miss could be as bad as 3-9.
MAKE OR BREAK: How good the defensive front turns out to be could really determine the fate of the Golden Eagles in year one under a new head coach. Too many easy rushing yards and Southern Miss will break their bowl streak.
Tulane
OFFENSE: Four returning starters on the O-line will help keep the offense afloat. A new quarterback will likely be necessary, and look for Scott Elliott to take the job. Andre Anderson is the new running back, but the pressure will not be on him.
DEFENSE: The defense was decent last year and almost turned a few close losses into wins. The run defense will suffer with the loss of both starting tackles, but the backfield is still pretty solid.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Ross Thevenot and Darren deRochemont split punting duties last year while Thevenot was the placekicker, but expect a reversal of duties after spring with de Rochemont kicking and Thevenot punting for the time being. While this uncertainty is worked out, things could be rocky.
COACHING: Bob Toledo is now entering his second year at the helm of the big Green Wave, and his first year was not too bad all things considered. Look for him to spin his wheels a little bit as he starts to fill the coffers with players to fit his system.
SCHEDULE: The schedule has a couple rough openers at Alabama and vs. ECU, but then every game is at least winnable until the November 1 showdown at LSU. Four out of five in November are on the road, so the hay better be made in the early part of the season or else there will be no improvement from last year.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... RB Andre Anderson replaces big shoes and a guy who ran for 2200 yards in 2007, but he gets the same line to run behind. Those shoes will not be so hard to fill after all.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... The Green Wave has not been bowling for a little while, and it could happen in Bob Toledo's second year if the defense gets better than last year. 7-5 is not out of the question.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... Other than home games against Rice and UAB, the rest of the schedule is very rough. This could lead to a 2-10 season.
MAKE OR BREAK: Although the ECU game is probably a loss, the four game stretch at home in September will require some good play to get Tulane off and running. If that does not happen, it will be another long season in Louisiana.
Tulsa
OFFENSE: The offense continues to lead the way this year, with nine returning starters back from last season's top offense in the conference and country. Senior guard Justin Morsey leads a dominant O-line that will keep a new quarterback off the turf for long enough to spread the ball to all the returning receiving talent.
DEFENSE: There are a lot of questions still on this side of the ball, but in this conference the best teams can sometimes outscore any problems the defense has. The defense must replace the top three tacklers from last season, so look for some underclassmen to step up.
SPECIAL TEAMS: No need to replace K Jarrod Tracy or P Michael Such this season, but some new returners need to breathe new life into the special teams. Could be a long season for these guys.
COACHING: Todd Graham is in his second full season now leading the Golden Hurricane, which is normally the year of improvement for most teams. That will be hard to do, unless Tulsa goes undefeated or wins the conference championship game. Expect them to get another shot under Graham.
SCHEDULE: The schedule never looks bad when you look down from the top of a division, and the only worrisome game until late October is a road trip to SMU, and only if SMU is resurgent. The key is the three game stretch of UCF, at Arkansas, and at Houston. Those will determine how far Tulsa goes this season.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... RB Charles Clay was a force in the receiving game last season, but look for him to become more balanced this season as a dual threat. This could mean trouble for opposing defenses.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... An undefeated season is within Tulsa's grasp, which would maybe put them into the Fiesta Bowl barring a Utah or BYU undefeated season. It will be tough to get by UCF twice or ECU in the championship though.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... The good news is with all the talent back on offense, some growing pains might be avoided with a new quarterback and lots of new defensive starters. Still, those growing pains might cost Tulsa a game or two and allow Houston into the C-USA title game. 7-5 is the absolute worst case scenario.
MAKE OR BREAK: The new quarterback must progress enough by late October to deal with the critical three game stretch. As long as that happens, there is almost no doube Tulsa will be returning to avenge last year's championship loss.
UAB
OFFENSE: Although QB Sam Hunt is gone, junior Joseph Webb has a lot of upside and will be taking over the reins. He has plenty of receiving talent in Mike Jones, Mario Wright, and Frantrell Forrest. This unit should be better than last year.
DEFENSE: The defense was the Achilles' heel last season, and needs to develop than young nucleus into proven contenders. Safety Will Dunbar was the only bright spot last year, so there is a lot to shore up between now and November.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Swayze Waters hit 79% of his FG tries last season and did an admirable job punting for over 40 yards per kick. He should return after a spring injury and lead this unit. Look for Rashard Slaughter and Frantrell Forrest to kickstart the return game.
COACHING: It was not just Neil Callaway making his coaching debut last year, it was him and 14 freshman starters. This year all should improve from the experience and form a nucleus that should lead UAB back to being competitive in 2010 if not 2009. Callaway has time to develop this crop into winners.
SCHEDULE: Sometimes the schedule does not look good, and that happens when you are at the bottom looking up. UAB drew the worst possible West schedule with Tulsa and Houston on the docket. That will not help the Blazers improve on a 2-10 campaign.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... QB Joseph Webb is given the golden oppotunity to lead this young team from a tough start in 2007 to perhaps bowl eligibility in 2009. This is the bridge year, and progress has to happen. Webb needs to lead that process or nothing will happen.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... UAB has a chance to knock off Marshall and Memphis at home, but everything else outside of Alabama State will be very rough. Expect 4-8 to be a good season, 5-7 tops.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... The Blazers could take a step back in record while still improving. 1-11 is possible and may not be a sign things are getting worse. Of course things could get worse and that's the worst case scenario with such a strong nucleus of now sophomore players.
MAKE OR BREAK: The key will be finding success or a silver lining even when the going gets rough. That may be hard to do, but development will come slowly with this tough schedule.
UCF
OFFENSE: The offense was pretty solid last year, but only five starters return and big losses on the line and the heart of the offense Kevin Smith are all gone. Phillip Smith should fill the RB role, and Mike Greco and Joe Weatherford will fight over the open QB position. Still, the key will be replacing the openings on the line so that these new guys have the time they need to make reads and play well.
DEFENSE: The defense is what gave this team a good chance three years ago and a solid league title last year. Nine starters return and this unit should hold the team together. LB Derrick Hallman leads the crew.
SPECIAL TEAMS: An excellent placekicker needs replaced, but Jordan Dodds appears ready to take the job. Blake Clingan will be back trying to improve on his punting, and leading kick returners Khymest Williams and Joe Burnett are back. This should be a strength in comparison to many C-USA special teams units.
COACHING: George O'Leary is still not back to .500 at UCF total in four seasons, but it will not be too long after reviving the program to a ten win season last year and a conference title. Things will stay good under this coach.
SCHEDULE: Ten wins out of 12 might be tough with USF, Boston College, Miami, and East Carolina all in the first 8 weeks of the season. But even if this team is 4-4 at that point, 8-4 should happen and another bowl will be expected.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... WR Kamar Aiken did not have as many receptions as Rocky Ross last season, but expect the explosiveness of Aiken to come in more handy this season when a new QB needs a big playmaker. This should be a big year for this receiver.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... The game at Boston College will be really tough to win, but other than that everything is winnable. The key will be surviving Tulsa and East Carolina in a 8 day stretch. Still, split those and UCF has a chance to go back to the title game.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... UCF should not drop below 7-5 this season, even if that puts them a few games behind the ECU Pirates. This defense will not drop to .500 or less, no matter the offensive growing pains.
MAKE OR BREAK: The offense in all likelihood just needs to be productive enough to keep the defense off the field. If that does not happen, the defense will wear down as the season goes along and 7-5 might become a grim reality. At least a bowl should be in the mix no matter what.
UTEP
OFFENSE: RB Terrell Jackson takes over for Marcus Thomas, who ran the show last season. QB Trevor Vittatoe did an admirable job starting last season and will need to step it up to keep the offense running this year.
DEFENSE: The Miners gave up over 300 yards per game passing last season, and S Quintin Demps is now gone. The Miner defense must find a new leader in a hurry or else there will be no hope for any improvement this season.
SPECIAL TEAMS: K Jose Martinez hit 17/20 in field goals last season and will be looking to lead the special teams. With the defensive struggles, special teams will be critical this year with a replaced punter.
COACHING: Mike Price found new life at UTEP and revitalized the program, but now he is at risk of a third straight losing season. Even that might be enough to rid Price of a job, so he needs to step it up this year.
SCHEDULE: The opening two games are rough at Buffalo and vs. Texas, but then things let up a bit. The easiest stretch are three games in early November sandwiched by tough road games at Tulsa, Houston, and ECU.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... K Jose Martinez was the best statistical kicker in the league last season, and he'll need to be even better if UTEP is going to get back to a bowl. This could be an outside Groza award finalist.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... UTEP could put it all back together. If they do, expect a 7-5 or 8-4 record and a surprising return to bowl season.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... UTEP will continue to struggle on defense so much that the offense cannot find its rhythm under new leadership. If this happens, expect a 2-10 season.
MAKE OR BREAK: The key will be the defense. If they can improve dramatically against the pass, that might protect them from the demoralizing blowouts that are possible with all the solid spread offenses in the conference.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
TEAM CONFERENCE OVERALL
EAST
East Carolina 8-0 9-3
UCF 7-1 9-3
Memphis 6-2 8-4
Southern Miss 4-4 6-6
Marshall 2-6 3-9
UAB 0-8 1-11
WEST
Tulsa 7-1 11-1
Houston 6-2 9-3
UTEP 3-5 5-7
SMU 3-5 5-7
Tulane 2-6 4-8
Rice 0-8 2-10
PRESEASON ALL-CONFERENCE
OFFENSE
QB Chase Clement Rice
RB Damion Fletcher Southern Miss
RB Tarrion Adams Tulsa
WR Duke Calhoun Memphis
WR Brennan Marion Tulsa
TE Cody Slate Marshall
OL Patrick Brown UCF
OL Robby Felix UTEP
OL Ryan McKee Southern Miss
OL Doug Palmer East Carolina
OL Brandon Pearce Memphis
Honorable Mention Offense: TE Shawn Nelson (Southern Miss)
DEFENSE
DL Albert McClellan Marshall
DL Phillip Hunt Houston
DL Zach Slate East Carolina
DL C.J. Wilson East Carolina
LB Brian Raines Rice
LB Joe Henderson UAB
LB Gerald McRath Southern Miss
DB Will Dunbar UAB
DB Andrew Sendejo Rice
DB Kenneth Fontenette Houston
DB C.J. Spillman Marshall
Honorable Mention Defense: DL Moton Hopkins (Tulsa)
SPECIAL TEAMS
K Jose Martinez UTEP
P Thomas Morehead SMU
KR Darius Marshall Marshall
PR Joe Burnett UCF
Honorable Mention Special Teams: P Britt Barefoot (Southern Miss)
Preseason Offensive Player of the Year:
RB Damion Fletcher, Southern Miss
Preseason Defensive Player of the Year:
LB Gerald McRath, Southern Miss
Preseason Special Teams Player of the Year:
PR Joe Burnett, UCF
Preseason Newcomer of the Year:
QB Logan Turner, SMU
FINAL THOUGHTS
Well it could be deja vu all over again with UCF and Tulsa, or Houston and East Carolina could get in the mix. Who knows, maybe even dark horses such as Southern Miss or SMU could get in the competition. This should be a avery competitive year outside of Rice and UAB, and East Carolina has a serious shot at the BCS slot if the MWC beats each other up as expected. The Pirates could get it done with a 12-1 record. There's plenty of good storylines to follow down south this year.
SCS.com Pick'Em Contest
Three Keys | Team-by-Team Analysis
Projected Standings | All-Conference Teams
THREE KEYS
1. Well if there's one thing about non-BCS conferences, it is coaching. There's always guys stepping up, guys stepping down, and guys looking over their shoulder at assistants. This season brings June Jones into the mix to join other greats like Mike Price and George O'Leary. There's a lot of talent, and one hopes the C-USA can keep it for as long as possible.
2. The second key will be how good the defenses are in the league as a whole. UCF will continue romping to more titles if they are the only competent defense in the league, as you cannot win every shootout, no matter how good your offense is. Look for defense to be what the conference focuses on this year and for a while.
3. The third key is SMU. Everybody knows East Carolina, Tulsa, Houston, and UCF are going to compete for the title, but one interesting team to watch is SMU. Sure, they were crappy last year and have not been good since the death penalty was lifted...but you have to believe June Jones can turn this program around. How long nobody knows, but watch out contenders because this is no gimme anymore.
TEAM-BY-TEAM ANALYSIS
East Carolina
OFFENSE: Last season both Patrick Pinkney and Rob Kass split time almost equally in the quarterback job. This experience will help no matter who leads coming out of summer practice. Three returning offensive linemen will also help the offense move the ball while they break in new running backs.
DEFENSE: Nine starters return from last year's unit that really carried the team to its best finish in conference history. Some young guns will compete, especially at linebacker, but expect this unit to be the best defense in the East division. The only possible weakness is perhaps defending the short pass.
SPECIAL TEAMS: PK Ben Hartman should be better than his 13-22 numbers last season, and the punter and leading kick returner are back as well. Again, this unit will be good for the Pirates.
COACHING: Skip Holtz returns for his fourth season at the helm, and he has really turned around the East Carolina program. The Pirates consistently challenge the big boys from their region and it has started to pay off. With an experienced team this year, expectations are even higher, but Holtz can handle them.
SCHEDULE: The Pirates do not have an easy out-of-conference game, as they play Virginia Tech and West Virginia to start the season, at NC State and Virginia later. As for the conference schedule, the only possible roadbumps are a home game against Houston and a road game at UCF that should decide the Eastern division. Thankfully, ECU gets a bye before UCF.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... SS Van Eskridge had over 100 tackles last season, and this year he will continue to rack up the stops when ECU needs back-line defense. He will fully break out if he learns how to break up some passes in the middle this season.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... It's hard to imagine East Carolina beating Virginia Tech in the opener, but they certainly have a chance if Beamer's boys come out slow in 2008. All the other games are winnable, so the best case is 11-1 and a BCS bowl on the line in the conference title game.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... Even if the Pirates stumble through September, it's hard to imagine them doing any worse than last season. 7-5 would be a bad season for these guys.
MAKE OR BREAK: No matter how the early part of the season goes, the only thing standing between this team and a first appearance in the C-USA title game is a road game at defending champion UCF. This will be the game that determines whether ECU is ready to become a real contender, even have BCS aspirations.
Houston
OFFENSE: The offense carried the team in 2007, but only 6 returning starters come back and most of them on the line. Terrance Ganaway will be the new running back, and he gained 550 yards as a backup last season. Look for some bumps in the road as QB Case Keenum adjusts to new receivers.
DEFENSE: The defense was statistically the best in the conference last season, and 8 starters return. The big playmaker DE Phillip Hunt will likely up his sack total, and all of the defensive backfield will intercept a lot of balls.
SPECIAL TEAMS: P Chase Turner is the only returning starter for this unit, as Jonathan Gibson will take over the kicking duties and the return game will try out some new guys. This could be one area to really gameplan an attack against the Cougars.
COACHING: Kevin Sumlin becomes the first African-American head coach for a Texas Division I-A program, and he's well experienced from coordinating at Oklahoma and Texas A&M. He may go through some growing pains, but he's a good man to replace Art Briles and continue the upward swing of this program.
SCHEDULE: The schedule is tough early, as there's only one home game in each of the months of August, September, and October. Road games at Oklahoma State and East Carolina are the worst of it, although a November home game against Tulsa is probably the biggest game.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... RB Terrance Ganaway is set for an absolutely monster season, with the offensive line mostly intact and taking over the primary rushing duties. He will be the man when things get tough on offense, and that could lead to 1500+ yards.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... An upset on the road at Oklahoma State is not out of the question, and the Cougars get division favorite Tulsa in the middle of a three-game homestand in November. 7-1 and a division title are as good as it will get.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... If Houston's offense is not back to good this season and the defense begins to struggle, road games at Marshall, Colorado State, and Rice are all very possible losses. That would drop the cougars to 6-6 and 4-4, and probably home for the holidays.
MAKE OR BREAK: One make or break factor is how well the offense gets together, but the real key will be the November game hosting Tulsa. That one will likely decide the Western division.
Marshall
OFFENSE: Eight starters return to a unit that had little trouble moving the ball. A new quarterback will need to be broken in, but the job should be easy with the interior linemen back and tons of receiving talent between TE Cody Slate, WR Darius Passmore, WR Emmanuel Spann, and WR E.J. Wynn.
DEFENSE: While this unit was nothing special last season, but 8 starters return and a couple JUCO transfers will join DE Albert McClellan (2006 conference player of the year, out by injury in 2007) will change that. As long as this unit can start getting more pressure on opposing quarterbacks and make some turnovers, this year could be a winner.
SPECIAL TEAMS: A big loss in PK and P Anthony Binswanger will need to be filled, but there are two viable contenders at each position. The return game should be strong with C.J. Spillman and J.J. Johnson handling most of the duties.
COACHING: Since leaving Ohio State, Mark Snyder has had some serious problems turning around the Thundering Herd, only winning 12 games in 3 seasons. He's got the right defensive framework in place, and now he just needs players to step up and work the system.
SCHEDULE: The schedule is a nightmare for Thundering Herd fans hoping to turn things around. Other than the opener against D-IAA Illinois State, the out of conference schedule defines brutal: at Wisconsin, at West Virginia, vs. Cincinnati. All the really good conference teams other than ECU are home games, which means nothing will come easy in 2008.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... TE Cody Slate is just the kind of guy every quarterback wishes he had to go to in tough situations. Slate led the team in receiving last season and will likely have a chance at 1000+ yards this season, a monster year for a tight end.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... There's enough returning talent everywhere to think this team could make some serious noise. With the rough schedule, 7-5 would be a great year.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... There's no denying that this team has underahcieved under Snyder, and that trend could continue with this schedule if the players get discouraged. 2-10 and a lone win against UAB in C-USA could happen.
MAKE OR BREAK: The key for a team with a lot of experience will be can they build on it and maybe sneak a win away from a heavily favored opponent early. If that happens, then the confidence will be there in November when all the important conference opponents come into Huntington.
Memphis
OFFENSE: Another new quarterback needs to be broken in, but things will be easier with all four leading receivers back in 2008. Look for WR Duke Calhoun and WR Carlos Singleton to eliminate the growing pains. If the running game gets going at all, this unit will make waves.
DEFENSE: Despite returning nine starters, there's a lot of unanswered questions and holes to fill. The defense needs to hope the offense keeps up the great play to support this unit. The defensive line is the strength of the unit, led by Clinton McDonald.
SPECIAL TEAMS: K Matt Reagan and P Brent Sutherland were excellent when called upon last season, and look for both to improve even more in 2008. The return game needs new leaders, but there's plenty of burners to fill the gaps.
COACHING: Tommy West has led the Tigers to nearly .500 overall in 7 seasons, and this year he may improve even more. Just when West appeared to be on the hot seat, he came up with a good 6-2 C-USA season last year. He could do it again, escaping job pressure.
SCHEDULE: Despite opening at Mississippi, the Tigers really have no tough games until Louisville comes to town October 10. A roadtrip to East Carolina follows, but every other game should be winnable.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... This is going to be a very strange pick, but I think P Brent Sutherland is the most important cog in the defensive framework. Sutherland will need to blast some big punts to keep the defense in favorable field position, and his 40 yard-per-punt average may improve and become one of the best in the country.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... This team could steal a home game against Central Florida and hold serve against all except ECU thanks to the easy West division schedule. 10-2 and a second-place division finish are possible if the defense becomes an average unit and the offense clicks.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... The running game could struggle, making the offense inconsistent. The defense cannot carry this team, and Memphis could fall all the way to 3 or 4 wins.
MAKE OR BREAK: The key as evidenced above is definitely plugging someone into the running game who actually threatens opposing defenses, causing them to put more than 3 guys on the line to stop the run. If teams can drop 7 and 8 men routinely in heavy coverage, this offense and the Tigers overall will have a tough season.
Rice
OFFENSE: Best offense in the conference is not an understatement, at least statistically. The problem is that the team is very one-dimensional. With senior QB Chase Clement and top receivers back, the only key will be if RB Justin Hill and C.J. Ugokwe can make something happen in the rushing game.
DEFENSE: The lack of a rushing game did not stop Rice last season and likely will not again, but the defense is possibly the worst in the country. Some experience comes back, but it's not very talented experience. DE Scott Soloman is the only bright spot going into his sophomore year.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Clark Fangmeier was not called upon much last season as placekicker, but he will get lots of extra points if nothing else. A new punter Mark Brundage will try his best and the return game is up in the air after spring practices.
COACHING: David Bailiff begins his second season after a 3-9 campaign, and he probably expects growth this season. Unless the defense surprises, Rice will again be a flash in the pan that might steal a win or two this season. A long rebuilding process continues.
SCHEDULE: At least Rice gets to open against the only team in their division they should beat, and SMU is coming to the Owls home no less. After that, it gets tough. Everything is winnable except for the road game at Texas, but this defense will lose a lot more games before it gets better.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... QB Chase Clement rushed for nearly 600 yards last year while passing for 29 TD and over 3300 yards. There could be even more this year. Hesiman candidates do not come from losing teams, but if they did, this would be a frontrunner.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... Who knows, Rice could surprise and have a decent defense. That's all it would take to make it to 6-6 and continue the slow climb out of the C-USA cellar.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... Things go like last year, except Rice chokes against the likes of SMU or North Texas. 1-11 is possible with no wins in conference.
MAKE OR BREAK: Nothing will determine how far this team goes like the defense. All it takes with this offense is a mediocre defense, but even that may be too much to ask. There's no doubt where the recruiting focus should be for the next five years.
SMU
OFFENSE: Here comes a new direction. The Mustangs have been bottom-of-the-barrel since coming back from the death penalty, but the final pieces of a comeback may come now that former Hawaii coach June Jones takes over. SMU will likely transform from a team like Rice into a team like Hawaii or Texas Tech very quickly, but maybe not this season as the cupboards are fairly bare. Still, there are enough good receivers to start the run and gun revolution.
DEFENSE: This unit was as bad as Rice last season, and really brought the demise of the team and its coach. Still, with the new look offense this unit needs to step up and help out if SMU is going to experience a quick turnaround. The best players are corners Bryan McCann and Derrius Bell.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Punter and Kicker Thomas Morstead was an all-conference punter last season, and the only thing stopping him from doing it again is the new-look improved offense. The return game should improve this season.
COACHING: What more can you say than June Jones took Hawaii from 0-12 to 9-4 in one season and to the BCS in a few short seasons. SMU should be an easier assignment, but maybe not as quickly.
SCHEDULE: The first two weeks should be wins against Rice and Texas State, but you may want to tune in for the Rice and Texas Tech games. Should be tons of points and passing in both. Expect SMU to steal a couple of games and be competitive, but no bowl with this schedule.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... WR Emmanuel Sanders gained almost 900 yards last season, and there will be more than enough oppotunities to bust out to a big year this year.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... Really, a turnaround similar to 0-12 to 9-4 is possible. SMU could put it all together, overachieve and end up bowling in 2008. 7-5 could happen even with the relatively tough schedule.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... It's hard to imagine Jones staying down for long, but change does not happen at major programs overnight. 1-11 is the bottom possibility if the defense stays as bad as last year.
MAKE OR BREAK: The defense is important, but is the offense deep enough to run the Jones system in just one year? It seems doubtful, but the coach is a miracle worker and may just surprise everyone. This is the hardest team to predict in the conference for that reason.
Southern Miss
OFFENSE: RB Damion Fletcher is the returning centerpiece of a new spread offense. Flethcer will need to take the pressure off a new quarterback, probably freshman Austin Davis. The offensive line also needs to reload.
DEFENSE: The defense had a special year last season, but the entire line, which was the anchor of the unit, is gone now. The back seven is still in good shape, but corner C.J. Bailey should break out and lead the coverages.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Britt Barefoot has the best kicker name in years, and he may take over the placekicking from returning starter Justin Estes as well as the punting Barefoot did last season. The return game is still up in the air but should be decent.
COACHING: Well this was a surprise change of direction. After 14 straight winning seasons, the school cans Jeff Bower and goes with Larry Fedora, an unknown. Nobody knows what to expect.
SCHEDULE: The home schedule is not that bad this season, but Boise State and ECU will be tough. The road schedule is pretty brutal though, and may hold Southern Miss to its first non-winning season since 1994.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... LB Gerald McRath is the true anchor in the center of the defense, and he will be called upon to help out in coverage as well as shore up an entirely new D-line. This could create a breakout situation for the talented McRath.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... Southern Miss could keep on chugging, maybe get a little better than last year, but not quite enough to compete with East Carolina. Still, 7-1 and 9-3 is possible.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... The Golden Eagles take a big step back adjusting to their new coach and new offense, and drop from bowl contention in October before the schedule gets rough. Southern Miss could be as bad as 3-9.
MAKE OR BREAK: How good the defensive front turns out to be could really determine the fate of the Golden Eagles in year one under a new head coach. Too many easy rushing yards and Southern Miss will break their bowl streak.
Tulane
OFFENSE: Four returning starters on the O-line will help keep the offense afloat. A new quarterback will likely be necessary, and look for Scott Elliott to take the job. Andre Anderson is the new running back, but the pressure will not be on him.
DEFENSE: The defense was decent last year and almost turned a few close losses into wins. The run defense will suffer with the loss of both starting tackles, but the backfield is still pretty solid.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Ross Thevenot and Darren deRochemont split punting duties last year while Thevenot was the placekicker, but expect a reversal of duties after spring with de Rochemont kicking and Thevenot punting for the time being. While this uncertainty is worked out, things could be rocky.
COACHING: Bob Toledo is now entering his second year at the helm of the big Green Wave, and his first year was not too bad all things considered. Look for him to spin his wheels a little bit as he starts to fill the coffers with players to fit his system.
SCHEDULE: The schedule has a couple rough openers at Alabama and vs. ECU, but then every game is at least winnable until the November 1 showdown at LSU. Four out of five in November are on the road, so the hay better be made in the early part of the season or else there will be no improvement from last year.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... RB Andre Anderson replaces big shoes and a guy who ran for 2200 yards in 2007, but he gets the same line to run behind. Those shoes will not be so hard to fill after all.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... The Green Wave has not been bowling for a little while, and it could happen in Bob Toledo's second year if the defense gets better than last year. 7-5 is not out of the question.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... Other than home games against Rice and UAB, the rest of the schedule is very rough. This could lead to a 2-10 season.
MAKE OR BREAK: Although the ECU game is probably a loss, the four game stretch at home in September will require some good play to get Tulane off and running. If that does not happen, it will be another long season in Louisiana.
Tulsa
OFFENSE: The offense continues to lead the way this year, with nine returning starters back from last season's top offense in the conference and country. Senior guard Justin Morsey leads a dominant O-line that will keep a new quarterback off the turf for long enough to spread the ball to all the returning receiving talent.
DEFENSE: There are a lot of questions still on this side of the ball, but in this conference the best teams can sometimes outscore any problems the defense has. The defense must replace the top three tacklers from last season, so look for some underclassmen to step up.
SPECIAL TEAMS: No need to replace K Jarrod Tracy or P Michael Such this season, but some new returners need to breathe new life into the special teams. Could be a long season for these guys.
COACHING: Todd Graham is in his second full season now leading the Golden Hurricane, which is normally the year of improvement for most teams. That will be hard to do, unless Tulsa goes undefeated or wins the conference championship game. Expect them to get another shot under Graham.
SCHEDULE: The schedule never looks bad when you look down from the top of a division, and the only worrisome game until late October is a road trip to SMU, and only if SMU is resurgent. The key is the three game stretch of UCF, at Arkansas, and at Houston. Those will determine how far Tulsa goes this season.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... RB Charles Clay was a force in the receiving game last season, but look for him to become more balanced this season as a dual threat. This could mean trouble for opposing defenses.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... An undefeated season is within Tulsa's grasp, which would maybe put them into the Fiesta Bowl barring a Utah or BYU undefeated season. It will be tough to get by UCF twice or ECU in the championship though.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... The good news is with all the talent back on offense, some growing pains might be avoided with a new quarterback and lots of new defensive starters. Still, those growing pains might cost Tulsa a game or two and allow Houston into the C-USA title game. 7-5 is the absolute worst case scenario.
MAKE OR BREAK: The new quarterback must progress enough by late October to deal with the critical three game stretch. As long as that happens, there is almost no doube Tulsa will be returning to avenge last year's championship loss.
UAB
OFFENSE: Although QB Sam Hunt is gone, junior Joseph Webb has a lot of upside and will be taking over the reins. He has plenty of receiving talent in Mike Jones, Mario Wright, and Frantrell Forrest. This unit should be better than last year.
DEFENSE: The defense was the Achilles' heel last season, and needs to develop than young nucleus into proven contenders. Safety Will Dunbar was the only bright spot last year, so there is a lot to shore up between now and November.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Swayze Waters hit 79% of his FG tries last season and did an admirable job punting for over 40 yards per kick. He should return after a spring injury and lead this unit. Look for Rashard Slaughter and Frantrell Forrest to kickstart the return game.
COACHING: It was not just Neil Callaway making his coaching debut last year, it was him and 14 freshman starters. This year all should improve from the experience and form a nucleus that should lead UAB back to being competitive in 2010 if not 2009. Callaway has time to develop this crop into winners.
SCHEDULE: Sometimes the schedule does not look good, and that happens when you are at the bottom looking up. UAB drew the worst possible West schedule with Tulsa and Houston on the docket. That will not help the Blazers improve on a 2-10 campaign.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... QB Joseph Webb is given the golden oppotunity to lead this young team from a tough start in 2007 to perhaps bowl eligibility in 2009. This is the bridge year, and progress has to happen. Webb needs to lead that process or nothing will happen.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... UAB has a chance to knock off Marshall and Memphis at home, but everything else outside of Alabama State will be very rough. Expect 4-8 to be a good season, 5-7 tops.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... The Blazers could take a step back in record while still improving. 1-11 is possible and may not be a sign things are getting worse. Of course things could get worse and that's the worst case scenario with such a strong nucleus of now sophomore players.
MAKE OR BREAK: The key will be finding success or a silver lining even when the going gets rough. That may be hard to do, but development will come slowly with this tough schedule.
UCF
OFFENSE: The offense was pretty solid last year, but only five starters return and big losses on the line and the heart of the offense Kevin Smith are all gone. Phillip Smith should fill the RB role, and Mike Greco and Joe Weatherford will fight over the open QB position. Still, the key will be replacing the openings on the line so that these new guys have the time they need to make reads and play well.
DEFENSE: The defense is what gave this team a good chance three years ago and a solid league title last year. Nine starters return and this unit should hold the team together. LB Derrick Hallman leads the crew.
SPECIAL TEAMS: An excellent placekicker needs replaced, but Jordan Dodds appears ready to take the job. Blake Clingan will be back trying to improve on his punting, and leading kick returners Khymest Williams and Joe Burnett are back. This should be a strength in comparison to many C-USA special teams units.
COACHING: George O'Leary is still not back to .500 at UCF total in four seasons, but it will not be too long after reviving the program to a ten win season last year and a conference title. Things will stay good under this coach.
SCHEDULE: Ten wins out of 12 might be tough with USF, Boston College, Miami, and East Carolina all in the first 8 weeks of the season. But even if this team is 4-4 at that point, 8-4 should happen and another bowl will be expected.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... WR Kamar Aiken did not have as many receptions as Rocky Ross last season, but expect the explosiveness of Aiken to come in more handy this season when a new QB needs a big playmaker. This should be a big year for this receiver.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... The game at Boston College will be really tough to win, but other than that everything is winnable. The key will be surviving Tulsa and East Carolina in a 8 day stretch. Still, split those and UCF has a chance to go back to the title game.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... UCF should not drop below 7-5 this season, even if that puts them a few games behind the ECU Pirates. This defense will not drop to .500 or less, no matter the offensive growing pains.
MAKE OR BREAK: The offense in all likelihood just needs to be productive enough to keep the defense off the field. If that does not happen, the defense will wear down as the season goes along and 7-5 might become a grim reality. At least a bowl should be in the mix no matter what.
UTEP
OFFENSE: RB Terrell Jackson takes over for Marcus Thomas, who ran the show last season. QB Trevor Vittatoe did an admirable job starting last season and will need to step it up to keep the offense running this year.
DEFENSE: The Miners gave up over 300 yards per game passing last season, and S Quintin Demps is now gone. The Miner defense must find a new leader in a hurry or else there will be no hope for any improvement this season.
SPECIAL TEAMS: K Jose Martinez hit 17/20 in field goals last season and will be looking to lead the special teams. With the defensive struggles, special teams will be critical this year with a replaced punter.
COACHING: Mike Price found new life at UTEP and revitalized the program, but now he is at risk of a third straight losing season. Even that might be enough to rid Price of a job, so he needs to step it up this year.
SCHEDULE: The opening two games are rough at Buffalo and vs. Texas, but then things let up a bit. The easiest stretch are three games in early November sandwiched by tough road games at Tulsa, Houston, and ECU.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... K Jose Martinez was the best statistical kicker in the league last season, and he'll need to be even better if UTEP is going to get back to a bowl. This could be an outside Groza award finalist.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... UTEP could put it all back together. If they do, expect a 7-5 or 8-4 record and a surprising return to bowl season.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... UTEP will continue to struggle on defense so much that the offense cannot find its rhythm under new leadership. If this happens, expect a 2-10 season.
MAKE OR BREAK: The key will be the defense. If they can improve dramatically against the pass, that might protect them from the demoralizing blowouts that are possible with all the solid spread offenses in the conference.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
TEAM CONFERENCE OVERALL
EAST
East Carolina 8-0 9-3
UCF 7-1 9-3
Memphis 6-2 8-4
Southern Miss 4-4 6-6
Marshall 2-6 3-9
UAB 0-8 1-11
WEST
Tulsa 7-1 11-1
Houston 6-2 9-3
UTEP 3-5 5-7
SMU 3-5 5-7
Tulane 2-6 4-8
Rice 0-8 2-10
PRESEASON ALL-CONFERENCE
OFFENSE
QB Chase Clement Rice
RB Damion Fletcher Southern Miss
RB Tarrion Adams Tulsa
WR Duke Calhoun Memphis
WR Brennan Marion Tulsa
TE Cody Slate Marshall
OL Patrick Brown UCF
OL Robby Felix UTEP
OL Ryan McKee Southern Miss
OL Doug Palmer East Carolina
OL Brandon Pearce Memphis
Honorable Mention Offense: TE Shawn Nelson (Southern Miss)
DEFENSE
DL Albert McClellan Marshall
DL Phillip Hunt Houston
DL Zach Slate East Carolina
DL C.J. Wilson East Carolina
LB Brian Raines Rice
LB Joe Henderson UAB
LB Gerald McRath Southern Miss
DB Will Dunbar UAB
DB Andrew Sendejo Rice
DB Kenneth Fontenette Houston
DB C.J. Spillman Marshall
Honorable Mention Defense: DL Moton Hopkins (Tulsa)
SPECIAL TEAMS
K Jose Martinez UTEP
P Thomas Morehead SMU
KR Darius Marshall Marshall
PR Joe Burnett UCF
Honorable Mention Special Teams: P Britt Barefoot (Southern Miss)
Preseason Offensive Player of the Year:
RB Damion Fletcher, Southern Miss
Preseason Defensive Player of the Year:
LB Gerald McRath, Southern Miss
Preseason Special Teams Player of the Year:
PR Joe Burnett, UCF
Preseason Newcomer of the Year:
QB Logan Turner, SMU
FINAL THOUGHTS
Well it could be deja vu all over again with UCF and Tulsa, or Houston and East Carolina could get in the mix. Who knows, maybe even dark horses such as Southern Miss or SMU could get in the competition. This should be a avery competitive year outside of Rice and UAB, and East Carolina has a serious shot at the BCS slot if the MWC beats each other up as expected. The Pirates could get it done with a 12-1 record. There's plenty of good storylines to follow down south this year.
Friday, July 18, 2008
2008 Football Preview: Mountain West
The youngest conference in major college football celebrates its 10th year of existence this season, and the time is ripe for the conference to become a BCS contender again. With the exception of the 2005 TCU team, the conference has been dominated by three teams: BYU, Colorado State, and Utah. Still, only once in nine years has the MWC sent a conference champion to the BCS, that being Utah in their undefeated 2004 run. BYU is the frontrunner for the third straight year and has not lost a conference game since 2005, but to make the BCS, the Cougars have many landmines to avoid in this conference in 2008.
SCS.com Pick'Em Contest
Three Keys | Team-by-Team Analysis
Projected Standings | All-Conference Teams
THREE KEYS
1. Is this the year the BCS comes knocking? Four teams (BYU, Utah, TCU, and New Mexico) have a real shot to jump into the Top 14 and earn a BCS berth. Will the competitive nature of the MWC bring them all down or send one to ultimate glory?
2. Will anybody be able to stop the BYU or Utah offense? There are some good defenses in the conference, especially Wyoming and TCU, but can they pull an upset by stopping the crazy spread?
3. How important will home field advantage be? There's definitely a scenario with BYU losing at Utah, Utah losing at New Mexico, and New Mexico losing in Provo to leave each at 7-1. Could anybody make the BCS in these circumstances?
TEAM-BY-TEAM ANALYSIS
Air Force
OFFENSE: Only 3 starters return from the strong unit of the 9-4 Falcons last season, and there will certainly be growing pains as every skill position player is replaced. Still, returning lineman Nick Charles and Keith Williams will anchor one side of the line and may open up some running lanes. There will be growing pains here.
DEFENSE: The strength of this team is definitely the defensive line, with strong ends Ben Garland and Ryan Kemp. Look for these guys to continue piling up the sacks in the 3-4 Defense this season. The only question mark is the secondary, with only SS Chris Thomas back.
SPECIAL TEAMS: For all the seniors that moved on last season to start defending our country, the one most influential returning starter may be senior PK Ryan Harrison. Harrison could be an outside contender for the Groza award after hitting 19 of 27 field goals last year. There are plenty of young guns coming in to shore up the return game as well.
COACHING: After struggling the past few seasons, Air Force changed directions in 2007 and hired Troy Calhoun. Calhoun took a senior-laden team to high success last season, second place in the MWC and a bowl bid. Still, this figures to be a rebuilding process starting now for Calhoun, so we may not find out just how good he is until the end of this season or next season.
SCHEDULE: The schedule actually favors the Falcons quite a bit, with the toughest stretch coming in September with Wyoming and Houston on the road and Utah at home. As long as the young Falcons are not too beaten down in September, they can get on a nice roll and perhaps contend for the last bowl berth in the conference. Road wins at SDSU and UNLV are a must for this though.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... Sometimes there's just no better choice than the kicker, and the clutch player is PK Ryan Harrison. He will certainly be called upon for more attempts than last season with the inexperienced offense learning the ropes. He will need to convert on a high rate to keep the Falcons competitive, and he'll step up to the challenge.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... Absolute best case scenario is fourth place in the MWC and a bowl berth. This would require New Mexico or TCU to falter as well as everything to click early for the Falcons. But it is possible under Calhoun.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... In all reality, a .500 season is the goal this year. Worst case would be not recovering from the tough September stretch, losing the Armed Forces cup to Navy, and stumbling to the cellar of the MWC.
MAKE OR BREAK: The key will be if the experienced lines can help the new starters grow up in September. The key game is Navy at home on 10/4 after a bye week, as this will set the tone for the back half of the season.
BYU
OFFENSE: The good news is, the Cougars return 10 starters from last year's solid offensive unit. QB Max Hall should improve plenty in his second year, especially with all the receiving talent he has coming back.
DEFENSE: The bad news is, expect the offense to need to outscore many opponents, especially early in the year. The defense only returns 3 starters, two of which thankfully anchor the defensive line. There's plenty of talent to jump in the open spots, but things could be dicey if the offense has a bad performance.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Both PK Mitch Payne and P C.J. Santiago are back this season, but both need to improve dramatically for BYU to seriously entertain thoughts of an undefeated season. The return game will be solid again.
COACHING: Now in his fourth year, Bronco Mendenhall has gotten used to not losing MWC games. His 21-3 record in three years and three Las Vegas Bowls show that he knows how to get the best out of his players. With the spread offense being tough to stop and all the returning offensive starters, there's no doubt BYU could be in the Fiesta Bowl come January.
SCHEDULE: Early tests at Washington and hosting UCLA will be a nice barometer for the defense. Assuming BYU sneaks past Jake Locker and company in Seattle, the only other worrisome two game stretch is 10/11 vs. New Mexico and five days later at TCU. The big finale at Utah could be for a BCS berth.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... DL Jan Jorgensen stood out on the defense as a sophomore last season, and he will need to lead a bunch of new starters in order for this team to live up to the super-high expectations.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... Clearly the best case scenario is 12-0, but the schedule strength is too weak to seriously consider BCS Championship hopes. Still, 12-0 is a lock for the Fiesta Bowl, and maybe BYU will be lucky enough to draw Oklahoma.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... Anything less than a share of the conference title would be a colossal disaster. The quick turnaround could be deadly in losses at TCU and later at Utah. Worst case is 9-3 and another bowl bid.
MAKE OR BREAK: Can the defense grow up enough to handle tough road games at Washington, TCU, and Utah? This will be the story of the 2008 BYU Cougars.
Colorado State
OFFENSE: With new coach Steve Fairchild, expect him to fully utilize the four returning linemen and three returning running backs to carry most of the load as a new quarterback is broken in. The problem is that even with the synergy between coach philosophy and returning talent, MWC teams will know to sit 8 guys in the box against the trio of Gartrell Johnson, Kyle Bell, and Michael Meyers. The key will be how fast a starting QB emerges.
DEFENSE: The only strength on the defense is returning LB Ricky Brewer, Jeff Horinek, and Jake Pottorff. The defense struggled to get any pass rush last year, and a new D-line will not help things.
SPECIAL TEAMS: A new punter will be needed this season, which may be very important with the likely offensive struggles. Fourth-year kicker Jason Smith should have a solid final year and is one to watch.
COACHING: It's always hard to replace a legend, but after a couple rough seasons the time was ripe for Sonny Lubick to give way to new coach Steve Fairchild. Fairchild ran some rush-heavy NFL offenses at Buffalo and St. Louis the past few years, so the only real question mark is how he will run the defense in his first year.
SCHEDULE: The out-of-conference games will provide an early test for the Rams with the Colorado game in Denver and at California. Their best shot at a MWC win is likely 10/4 hosting UNLV, but the Rams could sneak a win or two in November.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... senior LB Jeff Horinek will lead the defense this season and had the most tackles for a CSU defender in 4 years last season. Expect him to break that record this year with the holes in the new D-line.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... The Rams could be revitalized by their new coach and maybe with some luck, push to a 4-4 MWC record.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... No doubt about it, this season could be rough. 1-11 with no wins in MWC play is possible.
MAKE OR BREAK: How quickly the new quarterback is found from the stable of four contenders and how quickly that guy gets it together to become a valid threat. If this happens in October, Colorado State will be somewhat successful.
New Mexico
OFFENSE: The offense was not the unit that led the Lobos to their first bowl win and their 5th bowl appearance in 6 years last season, and now they have to replace the entire line. But still, returning QB Donovan Porterie and RB Rodney Ferguson are both solid guys to build a new offense around. They should lead the unit admirably.
DEFENSE: The defense is what makes New Mexico tick, and they unfortunately lost a lot of talent from last year's 13th ranked defense (nationally). Cornerback DeAndre Wright leads perhaps the best secondary in the conference, so expect a lot of game changing plays back there. The key is how the new guys up front do.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Well there's no returning starters in the kicking game, and the return game needs new help as well. Nobody really stepped up in spring, so this is a big question mark going into the season.
COACHING: Rocky Long enters his 11th year in New Mexico with an even 61-61 record overall. His defensive-minded teams have never won a league title, but have no doubt that Rocky can get these guys up there after his first bowl win last season.
SCHEDULE: Part of the reason New Mexico exceeds expectations in the MWC is the tough out-of-conference schedule every year. This season starts with a critical MWC game against TCU, then Texas A&M and Arizona at home before a roadtrip to Tulsa. There's only 3 home games in the final nine, which may hurt come November.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... RB Rodney Ferguson has gained over 1000 yards the past two seasons and will be the primary weapon this year. Who knows how many yards he could rack up?
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... Best case is probably 11-1, with a loss to BYU and a win over Utah to hope for a three-way tie for their first MWC crown.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... The defense struggles up front mightily, and the offense cannot pick up the pace enough to keep New Mexico more than an also-ran. Certainly should stay bowl-eligible, but could drop to 4-4 in the league.
MAKE OR BREAK: Really it's how this team handles the first three games, as that will be the only time they get the luxury of being at home. The big opener against TCU will set the tone for the conference title aspirations, as New Mexico should not come out of BYU with a win.
San Diego State
OFFENSE: Oh my, normally one would think year three of a head coach's career is where things turn around, but this could be tough with nine starters gone. RB Brandon Sullivan and Atiyah Henderson will need to carry most of the load for the Aztecs this season.
DEFENSE: The defense was the worst in the conference in 2007, but most of the starters return and they should grow up quickly this season. LB Russell Allen is the leader of the pack this season, a solid anchor in the middle of the defense.
SPECIAL TEAMS: This is another team that will suffer through two new kickers this season. Look for the return game to be strong this season though as the Aztecs have some speedsters on the roster.
COACHING: Chuck Long enters a third year at SDSU and may take a step back in record this season with such an inexperienced team. Still, his defense remains young and an explosive return to the bowl season is the goal for 2009. This season, just stay the course.
SCHEDULE: The schedule is not so bad actually, as the Aztecs have Cal Poly and Idaho at home as well as winnable road games at Notre Dame and San Jose State early. The three team the Aztecs have a reasonable chance of beating in conference all come at home in Air Force, Colorado State, and UNLV.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... No doubt about it, the leader of the defense is LB Russell Allen, who has a chance to shine in that leadership role this season. How he leads the unit will largely determine the success of the Aztecs.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... Really, 6-6 is possible if all breaks go right, but a good season would be winning three home games in conference.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... The defense stays ineffective and the offense sputters. No help from special teams, and SDSU goes winless in conference and 1-11 overall.
MAKE OR BREAK: The key will be how well the experienced players on defense play, and they should improve enough to make a substantial contribution in this year where the Aztecs need them.
TCU
OFFENSE: Normally the defense has carried the Horned Frogs the past few years, but now the offense is the highly experienced unit. QB Andy Dalton has a lot of field awareness and RB Aaron Brown will eat up plenty of yards behind a strong O-line. This could be the best offense in a long time for TCU.
DEFENSE: The defense reloads at every level, but the line will be breaking in the most new players. James Vees is back from a one year suspension and LB Kelly Griffin should be a strong inside presence up front.
SPECIAL TEAMS: While the punter and kicker are gone, K Drew Combs has had the kickoff duties for a year and will lead the special teams as a placekicker this season. The return game is OK as well.
COACHING: Gary Patterson enters an eighth year at TCU and he's had four very solid 10+ win years so far. Although last year was the first disappointing MWC performance, don't expect Patterson to suffer two straight years in the middle of the conference.
SCHEDULE: A very tough league opener at New Mexico will be a chance for TCU to establish league contender status. The September schedule is easy outside of a 9/27 trip to Oklahoma, but TCU has two weeks of easy games following that one. TCU is one of the two contenders to get BYU at home, so look for that game to be the most important.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... 2007 Preseason player of the year RB Aaron Brown will hopefully not miss half a season this time around, and if that happens, he has a chance at league MVP.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... TCU is not winning at Oklahoma, but an opener win at New Mexico and a midseason win hosting BYU could make TCU the co-league champion at 7-1 and 10-2.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... TCU's offense is not as good as advertised, and that could drop them to .500 in league play if things go poorly.
MAKE OR BREAK: The home game versus BYU is this team's season. Even with losses at New Mexico and Oklahoma, a win over BYU could launch TCU back into league contention with only a road game at Utah in November standing between them and 7-1.
UNLV
OFFENSE: Three years of the Sanford regime, three two-win seasons and 1-7 MWC finishes. The offense should have been better every year, but this year you have to figure they will carry the team. The spread offense with QB Travis Dixon and Omar Clayton has a lot of punch, and WR duo Casey Flair and Ryan Wolfe will keep defenses confused.
DEFENSE: Lots of holes abound in the defense, but the unit should be serviceable with D-Line veterans Jacob Hales and Malo Taumua back. They will need to keep up the good play to make UNLV competitive.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Replacing both kickers is no treat, but UNLV is clearly not alone in that department in the MWC. Still, expect a game or two to turn on the lack of special teams expertise.
COACHING: Now it is put up or shut up time for Mike Sanford in his fourth year. 6-29 is not a record that gets contract extensions, and you have to figure this former offensive coordinator is going to do something special with this offense.
SCHEDULE: The schedule only has one real rough spot, that being a late three game stretch at BYU and hosting TCU and New Mexico over 3 weeks. Still, by then UNLV's season will be determined.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... WR Casey Flair will set a lot of school records within a few games in 2008, and he's also a threat in the return game. This burner will make waves in 2008.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... The offense puts a nice season together and UNLV could end up in a bowl game after all the struggles of the past three years. 7-5 is not out of the question with that offense.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... Well, let's just say another bad year is possible with this team. It could be an ugly offseason, but 1-11 and 0-8 in the MWC is possible.
MAKE OR BREAK: It all comes down to whether the offensive-minded head coach can take a team that looks like the second or third best offense in the conference and does something with it. Wins against BYU and Utah are probably too much to ask, but they have to step up on the offensive side.
Utah
OFFENSE: Bringing the best offensive line in the conference will only be the start of this dynamic unit. Only BYU should contend with the likes of dual-threat QB Brian Johnson and RB duo Darrell Mack and Matt Asiata. There will be a lot of points in Utah this season.
DEFENSE: There's a lot to prove on this side of the ball, and this unit will likely determine how far the Utes go this season. Stevenson Sylvester has the best name in the league and will lead the linebacking corps.
SPECIAL TEAMS: One man does all the kicking in Louie Sakoda, and he's back for another run this season. He should be a solid cog in the Ute mix.
COACHING: Fourth-year man Kyle Whittingham is really showing his skill at coaching the Utes after taking over a reloading team following the Utes lone BCS appearance. This is the year if another BCS appearance in in the near future.
SCHEDULE: Watch out Michigan, that opener in the Big House may be another tough day this year. Utah will be hard pressed to win both that and the early October game against Oregon State, but the rest of the schedule is pretty much a breeze until November. Then within 5 days of a road game at New Mexico, the Utes host TCU. Assuming a split or better, Utah will be playing BYU at home for the title in the finale.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... QB Brian Johnson leads the team and should be better than last year, when he broke out despite a shoulder injury.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... Actually, this team could repeat the undefeated run from a few years ago and end up in the Fiesta Bowl again.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... Really, it's hard to believe a team this talented could lose four games and three in conference, but the opener at Michigan and the November gauntlet could go poorly, especially if injuries affect the defense.
MAKE OR BREAK: There's a likelihood that Utah could be undefeated going into November. If that's the case, then the back four will determine whether Utah wins the conference and goes to the BCS or suffers a terrible fate.
Wyoming
OFFENSE: This unit really brought the team down last year, but 8 returning starters hope to cut the turnovers and mistakes down this year. QB Karsten Sween has a lot of competition for the job after a sophomore slump, but he may still have the reins. All of the line is back, so that should help the passing game.
DEFENSE: Seven starters return from one of the best defenses statistically in the country in 2007, and if the offense helps just a bit this time around, this unit will carry the load. The line of John Fletcher, Mitch Unrein, and Fred Givens should dominate most O-lines in the MWC.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Here's another team replacing one go to guy for both punting and kicking in Billy Vinnedge. The spring practice showed there should be some competition for both jobs this season, and competition always makes players better.
COACHING: Joe Glenn is entering his sixth year at Wyoming, and he's the only real veteran head coach left in the MWC. His three national titles between D-II Northern Colorado and D-IAA Montana shows he knows how to coach, but the results at Wyoming have been poor. Expect him to step up and lead this team to a much-needed bowl game.
SCHEDULE: The Cowboys need to hit the ground running, with three home games to open the season. The first three road games are all very rough at BYU, New Mexico, and TCU. The November schedule is all winnable, except for the 11/8 out-of-conference game at Tennessee.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... As good as the defensive line is, LB Ward Dobbs really is the centerpiece of the 3-4 defense. Look for Dobbs to jump into the national spotlight if Wyoming surprises.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... With such a good defense, this team can go as far as the offense can take it. Unfortunately, the glass ceiling is probably 9-3 and a third-place MWC finish. Still, that would be good for this program.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... The offense brings the team down again, leading to the likely firing of Coach Glenn. They could drop all the way to 3-9 and 1-7 in MWC play.
MAKE OR BREAK: I think it's clear from the above paragraphs that this team is relying on the offense and specifically the passing game to do something relevant this season. The home schedule is winnable, and there's the seven games needed for the bowl this program needs.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
TEAM CONFERENCE OVERALL
Utah 7-1 10-2
BYU 7-1 11-1
TCU 6-2 9-3
New Mexico 6-2 9-3
Wyoming 4-4 6-6
UNLV 3-5 5-7
Air Force 2-6 5-7
San Diego State 1-7 3-8
Colorado State 0-8 1-11
PRESEASON ALL-CONFERENCE
OFFENSE
QB Max Hall BYU
RB Rodney Ferguson New Mexico
RB Darrell Mack Utah
WR Austin Collie BYU
WR Ryan Wolfe UNLV
TE Dennis Pitta BYU
OL Robert Conley Utah
OL Dallas Reynolds BYU
OL Blake Schlueter TCU
OL Nick Charles Air Force
OL Ray Reinga BYU
Honorable Mention Offense: OL Matt Murphy (UNLV), RB Gartrell Johnson (Colorado State)
DEFENSE
DL Jan Jorgenson BYU
DL John Fletcher Wyoming
DL Ryan Kemp Air Force
DL Mitch Unrein Wyoming
LB Jason Phillips TCU
LB Russell Allen San Diego State
LB Stevenson Sylvester Utah
DB DeAndre Wright New MExico
DB Brice McCain Utah
DB Chris Thomas Air Force
DB Stephen Hodge TCU
Honorable Mention Defense: DL Rafael Priest (TCU), LB Jeff Horinek (Colorado State)
SPECIAL TEAMS
K Louie Sakoda Utah
P Louie Sakoda Utah
KR Austin Collie BYU
PR Ryan Wolfe UNLV
Honorable Mention Special Teams: K Mitch Payne (BYU), P C.J. Santiago (BYU)
Preseason Offensive Player of the Year:
QB Max Hall, BYU
Preseason Defensive Player of the Year:
DL Jan Jorgenson, BYU
Preseason Special Teams Player of the Year:
K-P Louie Sakoda, Utah
Preseason Newcomer of the Year:
QB Chris Stutzriem, Wyoming
FINAL THOUGHTS
For the sake of Wyoming fans, they will definitely be cheering for a BCS berth as they sit in likely 5th place in the conference. There's only 4 bowl tie-ins, so the Cowboys need help. BYU has dominated the past three years, but Utah has more than enough to upset them in the finale. Still, expect New Mexico and TCU to make their voices heard before it's all said and done. I project BYU goes to the BCS despite a close loss at Utah at the end of the year.
SCS.com Pick'Em Contest
Three Keys | Team-by-Team Analysis
Projected Standings | All-Conference Teams
THREE KEYS
1. Is this the year the BCS comes knocking? Four teams (BYU, Utah, TCU, and New Mexico) have a real shot to jump into the Top 14 and earn a BCS berth. Will the competitive nature of the MWC bring them all down or send one to ultimate glory?
2. Will anybody be able to stop the BYU or Utah offense? There are some good defenses in the conference, especially Wyoming and TCU, but can they pull an upset by stopping the crazy spread?
3. How important will home field advantage be? There's definitely a scenario with BYU losing at Utah, Utah losing at New Mexico, and New Mexico losing in Provo to leave each at 7-1. Could anybody make the BCS in these circumstances?
TEAM-BY-TEAM ANALYSIS
Air Force
OFFENSE: Only 3 starters return from the strong unit of the 9-4 Falcons last season, and there will certainly be growing pains as every skill position player is replaced. Still, returning lineman Nick Charles and Keith Williams will anchor one side of the line and may open up some running lanes. There will be growing pains here.
DEFENSE: The strength of this team is definitely the defensive line, with strong ends Ben Garland and Ryan Kemp. Look for these guys to continue piling up the sacks in the 3-4 Defense this season. The only question mark is the secondary, with only SS Chris Thomas back.
SPECIAL TEAMS: For all the seniors that moved on last season to start defending our country, the one most influential returning starter may be senior PK Ryan Harrison. Harrison could be an outside contender for the Groza award after hitting 19 of 27 field goals last year. There are plenty of young guns coming in to shore up the return game as well.
COACHING: After struggling the past few seasons, Air Force changed directions in 2007 and hired Troy Calhoun. Calhoun took a senior-laden team to high success last season, second place in the MWC and a bowl bid. Still, this figures to be a rebuilding process starting now for Calhoun, so we may not find out just how good he is until the end of this season or next season.
SCHEDULE: The schedule actually favors the Falcons quite a bit, with the toughest stretch coming in September with Wyoming and Houston on the road and Utah at home. As long as the young Falcons are not too beaten down in September, they can get on a nice roll and perhaps contend for the last bowl berth in the conference. Road wins at SDSU and UNLV are a must for this though.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... Sometimes there's just no better choice than the kicker, and the clutch player is PK Ryan Harrison. He will certainly be called upon for more attempts than last season with the inexperienced offense learning the ropes. He will need to convert on a high rate to keep the Falcons competitive, and he'll step up to the challenge.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... Absolute best case scenario is fourth place in the MWC and a bowl berth. This would require New Mexico or TCU to falter as well as everything to click early for the Falcons. But it is possible under Calhoun.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... In all reality, a .500 season is the goal this year. Worst case would be not recovering from the tough September stretch, losing the Armed Forces cup to Navy, and stumbling to the cellar of the MWC.
MAKE OR BREAK: The key will be if the experienced lines can help the new starters grow up in September. The key game is Navy at home on 10/4 after a bye week, as this will set the tone for the back half of the season.
BYU
OFFENSE: The good news is, the Cougars return 10 starters from last year's solid offensive unit. QB Max Hall should improve plenty in his second year, especially with all the receiving talent he has coming back.
DEFENSE: The bad news is, expect the offense to need to outscore many opponents, especially early in the year. The defense only returns 3 starters, two of which thankfully anchor the defensive line. There's plenty of talent to jump in the open spots, but things could be dicey if the offense has a bad performance.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Both PK Mitch Payne and P C.J. Santiago are back this season, but both need to improve dramatically for BYU to seriously entertain thoughts of an undefeated season. The return game will be solid again.
COACHING: Now in his fourth year, Bronco Mendenhall has gotten used to not losing MWC games. His 21-3 record in three years and three Las Vegas Bowls show that he knows how to get the best out of his players. With the spread offense being tough to stop and all the returning offensive starters, there's no doubt BYU could be in the Fiesta Bowl come January.
SCHEDULE: Early tests at Washington and hosting UCLA will be a nice barometer for the defense. Assuming BYU sneaks past Jake Locker and company in Seattle, the only other worrisome two game stretch is 10/11 vs. New Mexico and five days later at TCU. The big finale at Utah could be for a BCS berth.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... DL Jan Jorgensen stood out on the defense as a sophomore last season, and he will need to lead a bunch of new starters in order for this team to live up to the super-high expectations.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... Clearly the best case scenario is 12-0, but the schedule strength is too weak to seriously consider BCS Championship hopes. Still, 12-0 is a lock for the Fiesta Bowl, and maybe BYU will be lucky enough to draw Oklahoma.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... Anything less than a share of the conference title would be a colossal disaster. The quick turnaround could be deadly in losses at TCU and later at Utah. Worst case is 9-3 and another bowl bid.
MAKE OR BREAK: Can the defense grow up enough to handle tough road games at Washington, TCU, and Utah? This will be the story of the 2008 BYU Cougars.
Colorado State
OFFENSE: With new coach Steve Fairchild, expect him to fully utilize the four returning linemen and three returning running backs to carry most of the load as a new quarterback is broken in. The problem is that even with the synergy between coach philosophy and returning talent, MWC teams will know to sit 8 guys in the box against the trio of Gartrell Johnson, Kyle Bell, and Michael Meyers. The key will be how fast a starting QB emerges.
DEFENSE: The only strength on the defense is returning LB Ricky Brewer, Jeff Horinek, and Jake Pottorff. The defense struggled to get any pass rush last year, and a new D-line will not help things.
SPECIAL TEAMS: A new punter will be needed this season, which may be very important with the likely offensive struggles. Fourth-year kicker Jason Smith should have a solid final year and is one to watch.
COACHING: It's always hard to replace a legend, but after a couple rough seasons the time was ripe for Sonny Lubick to give way to new coach Steve Fairchild. Fairchild ran some rush-heavy NFL offenses at Buffalo and St. Louis the past few years, so the only real question mark is how he will run the defense in his first year.
SCHEDULE: The out-of-conference games will provide an early test for the Rams with the Colorado game in Denver and at California. Their best shot at a MWC win is likely 10/4 hosting UNLV, but the Rams could sneak a win or two in November.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... senior LB Jeff Horinek will lead the defense this season and had the most tackles for a CSU defender in 4 years last season. Expect him to break that record this year with the holes in the new D-line.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... The Rams could be revitalized by their new coach and maybe with some luck, push to a 4-4 MWC record.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... No doubt about it, this season could be rough. 1-11 with no wins in MWC play is possible.
MAKE OR BREAK: How quickly the new quarterback is found from the stable of four contenders and how quickly that guy gets it together to become a valid threat. If this happens in October, Colorado State will be somewhat successful.
New Mexico
OFFENSE: The offense was not the unit that led the Lobos to their first bowl win and their 5th bowl appearance in 6 years last season, and now they have to replace the entire line. But still, returning QB Donovan Porterie and RB Rodney Ferguson are both solid guys to build a new offense around. They should lead the unit admirably.
DEFENSE: The defense is what makes New Mexico tick, and they unfortunately lost a lot of talent from last year's 13th ranked defense (nationally). Cornerback DeAndre Wright leads perhaps the best secondary in the conference, so expect a lot of game changing plays back there. The key is how the new guys up front do.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Well there's no returning starters in the kicking game, and the return game needs new help as well. Nobody really stepped up in spring, so this is a big question mark going into the season.
COACHING: Rocky Long enters his 11th year in New Mexico with an even 61-61 record overall. His defensive-minded teams have never won a league title, but have no doubt that Rocky can get these guys up there after his first bowl win last season.
SCHEDULE: Part of the reason New Mexico exceeds expectations in the MWC is the tough out-of-conference schedule every year. This season starts with a critical MWC game against TCU, then Texas A&M and Arizona at home before a roadtrip to Tulsa. There's only 3 home games in the final nine, which may hurt come November.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... RB Rodney Ferguson has gained over 1000 yards the past two seasons and will be the primary weapon this year. Who knows how many yards he could rack up?
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... Best case is probably 11-1, with a loss to BYU and a win over Utah to hope for a three-way tie for their first MWC crown.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... The defense struggles up front mightily, and the offense cannot pick up the pace enough to keep New Mexico more than an also-ran. Certainly should stay bowl-eligible, but could drop to 4-4 in the league.
MAKE OR BREAK: Really it's how this team handles the first three games, as that will be the only time they get the luxury of being at home. The big opener against TCU will set the tone for the conference title aspirations, as New Mexico should not come out of BYU with a win.
San Diego State
OFFENSE: Oh my, normally one would think year three of a head coach's career is where things turn around, but this could be tough with nine starters gone. RB Brandon Sullivan and Atiyah Henderson will need to carry most of the load for the Aztecs this season.
DEFENSE: The defense was the worst in the conference in 2007, but most of the starters return and they should grow up quickly this season. LB Russell Allen is the leader of the pack this season, a solid anchor in the middle of the defense.
SPECIAL TEAMS: This is another team that will suffer through two new kickers this season. Look for the return game to be strong this season though as the Aztecs have some speedsters on the roster.
COACHING: Chuck Long enters a third year at SDSU and may take a step back in record this season with such an inexperienced team. Still, his defense remains young and an explosive return to the bowl season is the goal for 2009. This season, just stay the course.
SCHEDULE: The schedule is not so bad actually, as the Aztecs have Cal Poly and Idaho at home as well as winnable road games at Notre Dame and San Jose State early. The three team the Aztecs have a reasonable chance of beating in conference all come at home in Air Force, Colorado State, and UNLV.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... No doubt about it, the leader of the defense is LB Russell Allen, who has a chance to shine in that leadership role this season. How he leads the unit will largely determine the success of the Aztecs.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... Really, 6-6 is possible if all breaks go right, but a good season would be winning three home games in conference.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... The defense stays ineffective and the offense sputters. No help from special teams, and SDSU goes winless in conference and 1-11 overall.
MAKE OR BREAK: The key will be how well the experienced players on defense play, and they should improve enough to make a substantial contribution in this year where the Aztecs need them.
TCU
OFFENSE: Normally the defense has carried the Horned Frogs the past few years, but now the offense is the highly experienced unit. QB Andy Dalton has a lot of field awareness and RB Aaron Brown will eat up plenty of yards behind a strong O-line. This could be the best offense in a long time for TCU.
DEFENSE: The defense reloads at every level, but the line will be breaking in the most new players. James Vees is back from a one year suspension and LB Kelly Griffin should be a strong inside presence up front.
SPECIAL TEAMS: While the punter and kicker are gone, K Drew Combs has had the kickoff duties for a year and will lead the special teams as a placekicker this season. The return game is OK as well.
COACHING: Gary Patterson enters an eighth year at TCU and he's had four very solid 10+ win years so far. Although last year was the first disappointing MWC performance, don't expect Patterson to suffer two straight years in the middle of the conference.
SCHEDULE: A very tough league opener at New Mexico will be a chance for TCU to establish league contender status. The September schedule is easy outside of a 9/27 trip to Oklahoma, but TCU has two weeks of easy games following that one. TCU is one of the two contenders to get BYU at home, so look for that game to be the most important.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... 2007 Preseason player of the year RB Aaron Brown will hopefully not miss half a season this time around, and if that happens, he has a chance at league MVP.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... TCU is not winning at Oklahoma, but an opener win at New Mexico and a midseason win hosting BYU could make TCU the co-league champion at 7-1 and 10-2.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... TCU's offense is not as good as advertised, and that could drop them to .500 in league play if things go poorly.
MAKE OR BREAK: The home game versus BYU is this team's season. Even with losses at New Mexico and Oklahoma, a win over BYU could launch TCU back into league contention with only a road game at Utah in November standing between them and 7-1.
UNLV
OFFENSE: Three years of the Sanford regime, three two-win seasons and 1-7 MWC finishes. The offense should have been better every year, but this year you have to figure they will carry the team. The spread offense with QB Travis Dixon and Omar Clayton has a lot of punch, and WR duo Casey Flair and Ryan Wolfe will keep defenses confused.
DEFENSE: Lots of holes abound in the defense, but the unit should be serviceable with D-Line veterans Jacob Hales and Malo Taumua back. They will need to keep up the good play to make UNLV competitive.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Replacing both kickers is no treat, but UNLV is clearly not alone in that department in the MWC. Still, expect a game or two to turn on the lack of special teams expertise.
COACHING: Now it is put up or shut up time for Mike Sanford in his fourth year. 6-29 is not a record that gets contract extensions, and you have to figure this former offensive coordinator is going to do something special with this offense.
SCHEDULE: The schedule only has one real rough spot, that being a late three game stretch at BYU and hosting TCU and New Mexico over 3 weeks. Still, by then UNLV's season will be determined.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... WR Casey Flair will set a lot of school records within a few games in 2008, and he's also a threat in the return game. This burner will make waves in 2008.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... The offense puts a nice season together and UNLV could end up in a bowl game after all the struggles of the past three years. 7-5 is not out of the question with that offense.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... Well, let's just say another bad year is possible with this team. It could be an ugly offseason, but 1-11 and 0-8 in the MWC is possible.
MAKE OR BREAK: It all comes down to whether the offensive-minded head coach can take a team that looks like the second or third best offense in the conference and does something with it. Wins against BYU and Utah are probably too much to ask, but they have to step up on the offensive side.
Utah
OFFENSE: Bringing the best offensive line in the conference will only be the start of this dynamic unit. Only BYU should contend with the likes of dual-threat QB Brian Johnson and RB duo Darrell Mack and Matt Asiata. There will be a lot of points in Utah this season.
DEFENSE: There's a lot to prove on this side of the ball, and this unit will likely determine how far the Utes go this season. Stevenson Sylvester has the best name in the league and will lead the linebacking corps.
SPECIAL TEAMS: One man does all the kicking in Louie Sakoda, and he's back for another run this season. He should be a solid cog in the Ute mix.
COACHING: Fourth-year man Kyle Whittingham is really showing his skill at coaching the Utes after taking over a reloading team following the Utes lone BCS appearance. This is the year if another BCS appearance in in the near future.
SCHEDULE: Watch out Michigan, that opener in the Big House may be another tough day this year. Utah will be hard pressed to win both that and the early October game against Oregon State, but the rest of the schedule is pretty much a breeze until November. Then within 5 days of a road game at New Mexico, the Utes host TCU. Assuming a split or better, Utah will be playing BYU at home for the title in the finale.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... QB Brian Johnson leads the team and should be better than last year, when he broke out despite a shoulder injury.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... Actually, this team could repeat the undefeated run from a few years ago and end up in the Fiesta Bowl again.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... Really, it's hard to believe a team this talented could lose four games and three in conference, but the opener at Michigan and the November gauntlet could go poorly, especially if injuries affect the defense.
MAKE OR BREAK: There's a likelihood that Utah could be undefeated going into November. If that's the case, then the back four will determine whether Utah wins the conference and goes to the BCS or suffers a terrible fate.
Wyoming
OFFENSE: This unit really brought the team down last year, but 8 returning starters hope to cut the turnovers and mistakes down this year. QB Karsten Sween has a lot of competition for the job after a sophomore slump, but he may still have the reins. All of the line is back, so that should help the passing game.
DEFENSE: Seven starters return from one of the best defenses statistically in the country in 2007, and if the offense helps just a bit this time around, this unit will carry the load. The line of John Fletcher, Mitch Unrein, and Fred Givens should dominate most O-lines in the MWC.
SPECIAL TEAMS: Here's another team replacing one go to guy for both punting and kicking in Billy Vinnedge. The spring practice showed there should be some competition for both jobs this season, and competition always makes players better.
COACHING: Joe Glenn is entering his sixth year at Wyoming, and he's the only real veteran head coach left in the MWC. His three national titles between D-II Northern Colorado and D-IAA Montana shows he knows how to coach, but the results at Wyoming have been poor. Expect him to step up and lead this team to a much-needed bowl game.
SCHEDULE: The Cowboys need to hit the ground running, with three home games to open the season. The first three road games are all very rough at BYU, New Mexico, and TCU. The November schedule is all winnable, except for the 11/8 out-of-conference game at Tennessee.
IMPACT/BREAKOUT PLAYER.... As good as the defensive line is, LB Ward Dobbs really is the centerpiece of the 3-4 defense. Look for Dobbs to jump into the national spotlight if Wyoming surprises.
IF EVERYTHING GOES WELL.... With such a good defense, this team can go as far as the offense can take it. Unfortunately, the glass ceiling is probably 9-3 and a third-place MWC finish. Still, that would be good for this program.
IF THINGS DON'T GO SO WELL.... The offense brings the team down again, leading to the likely firing of Coach Glenn. They could drop all the way to 3-9 and 1-7 in MWC play.
MAKE OR BREAK: I think it's clear from the above paragraphs that this team is relying on the offense and specifically the passing game to do something relevant this season. The home schedule is winnable, and there's the seven games needed for the bowl this program needs.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
TEAM CONFERENCE OVERALL
Utah 7-1 10-2
BYU 7-1 11-1
TCU 6-2 9-3
New Mexico 6-2 9-3
Wyoming 4-4 6-6
UNLV 3-5 5-7
Air Force 2-6 5-7
San Diego State 1-7 3-8
Colorado State 0-8 1-11
PRESEASON ALL-CONFERENCE
OFFENSE
QB Max Hall BYU
RB Rodney Ferguson New Mexico
RB Darrell Mack Utah
WR Austin Collie BYU
WR Ryan Wolfe UNLV
TE Dennis Pitta BYU
OL Robert Conley Utah
OL Dallas Reynolds BYU
OL Blake Schlueter TCU
OL Nick Charles Air Force
OL Ray Reinga BYU
Honorable Mention Offense: OL Matt Murphy (UNLV), RB Gartrell Johnson (Colorado State)
DEFENSE
DL Jan Jorgenson BYU
DL John Fletcher Wyoming
DL Ryan Kemp Air Force
DL Mitch Unrein Wyoming
LB Jason Phillips TCU
LB Russell Allen San Diego State
LB Stevenson Sylvester Utah
DB DeAndre Wright New MExico
DB Brice McCain Utah
DB Chris Thomas Air Force
DB Stephen Hodge TCU
Honorable Mention Defense: DL Rafael Priest (TCU), LB Jeff Horinek (Colorado State)
SPECIAL TEAMS
K Louie Sakoda Utah
P Louie Sakoda Utah
KR Austin Collie BYU
PR Ryan Wolfe UNLV
Honorable Mention Special Teams: K Mitch Payne (BYU), P C.J. Santiago (BYU)
Preseason Offensive Player of the Year:
QB Max Hall, BYU
Preseason Defensive Player of the Year:
DL Jan Jorgenson, BYU
Preseason Special Teams Player of the Year:
K-P Louie Sakoda, Utah
Preseason Newcomer of the Year:
QB Chris Stutzriem, Wyoming
FINAL THOUGHTS
For the sake of Wyoming fans, they will definitely be cheering for a BCS berth as they sit in likely 5th place in the conference. There's only 4 bowl tie-ins, so the Cowboys need help. BYU has dominated the past three years, but Utah has more than enough to upset them in the finale. Still, expect New Mexico and TCU to make their voices heard before it's all said and done. I project BYU goes to the BCS despite a close loss at Utah at the end of the year.
Wednesday, July 9, 2008
2008 Preview: Programs on the Rebound
Welcome back football fans! The rest of the sports world has enjoyed fantastic finishes in the NFL (nice history Patriots), NBA (nothing better than Celtics-Lakers in June), and even in the PGA (Tiger-Rocco). March Madness and Major League Baseball has been a nice diversion as well, but let's face it: nothing, and I mean nothing, can replace the best sport in the land, that being college football. So now that we're back to preview the impending 2008 season, let's begin with programs on the rebound. These are programs rising from the ashes like a phoenix to either conference title aspirations or bowl berths.
SCS.com Pick'Em Contest
Texas Tech
Now normally the Red Raiders don't fit into this kind of list because (1) they always have high expectations and underachieve, and (2) they have gone to bowl games every year since 2000. However, this year the shoe fits better than normal, and many will be surprised when they live up to expectations and move past the crummy bowls from the past 8 seasons and into the BCS. The schedule is a breeze until a trip to Aggie-land in the middle of October, and the only real tough game is at Oklahoma in late November after a bye week to rest up. Senior QB Graham Harrell and superstar WR Michael Crabtree return to lead the offense, while the defense should be much improved over past years. This could mean a lot less Red Raider shootout games, which also increases the chances they finally step up and make a run at Oklahoma and Texas in the Big XII.
Illinois
With the exception of a Big Ten championship run in 2001, Illinois has not been competitive or in a bowl since the early 90's until last season. Coach Ron Zook might have not been the dream coach for the Florida Gators, but he's fitting in nicely with this orange and blue crew. After bringing in a third straight highly ranked recruiting class and going to the first Rose Bowl in over 20 years, it appears this program will displace Wisconsin, Penn State, and Iowa as the true third good team in the Big Ten. Although Rashard Mendenhall is gone this year, QB Juice Williams will only get better this year and any dual-threat quarterback is tough to defend in the Big Ten. Zook's defense did not lose a ton either, so expect more great things from the Illini this year and beyond.
Notre Dame
And now we come to the portion of the article that will inevitably bring hate mail. There's no team in the sport more loved and hated than the Irish, but unfortunately for the Irish haters…Charlie Weis will not have two bad years in South Bend in a row. While Duke and Stanford are not an amazing duo of wins to close the season in 2007, at 1-9 any wins are steps in the right direction. It's taking some time for Charlie Weis to learn the college football recruiting system, but he will keep the Irish program improving overall from the dark days of the past decade. QB Jimmy Clausen will be much better in his second year, and he has time to grow as the schedule is not loaded up front this year with tough road games. Don’t expect another BCS run right away, but before long Weis will start not only getting the Irish there regularly, but also winning those big bowl games.
Pittsburgh
Despite having many great seasons under Walt Harris, three years ago the Panthers started a new era under Dave Wannstedt. Like Charlie Weis and many other professional football coaches, Wannstedt has had some growing pains turning Pittsburgh into a legitimate contender. Finally grabbing some defensive talent the past couple off-seasons, now the Panthers are showing promise in victories like the season-crushing defeat of West Virginia at Morgantown last December. It appears that even without academically-ineligible star receiver Maurice Williams in 2008, Pittsburgh's offense should finally step up and help the strong defense this year. Given the topsy-turvy nature of the Big East and Rich Rodriguez's departure, even Pittsburgh could end up in the BCS this year.
Miami
Randy Shannon took over a program that was beginning to look like the late 80's thugs known as the Hurricanes, and instilled some class in a football program that was lacking in that department under Larry Coker. Not truly competitive since the surprising upset loss to Ohio State in the 2003 National Championship, Shannon has a lot of work to do as evidenced by the 4-game slide at the end of 2007. Still, a move out of the Orange Bowl and back onto campus can only help Miami build a better relationship with the student body and turn things around. A solid class of juniors come back this season to lead the Hurricanes back to bowl eligibility. Don't expect a win in Gainesville week 2, but at least Miami should rebound and start the climb back to national prominence again. This time, expect the Hurricanes to do things the right way under Randy Shannon.
Mississippi State
After an embarrassing 45-0 home loss to LSU on national television to begin last season, it appeared Sylvester Croom was on his way to another three win season. Instead, the Bulldogs achieved their first winning record and bowl game since 2000 by running off seven wins in eleven games. With the exception of games against superb offensive units Arkansas, LSU, and West Virginia, the Bulldog defense held all other teams to an average of less than 20 points per game. The faithful in Starkville have stayed behind Croom and allowed him time to make this program into a winner, and this season should be even better than last year. Expect the defense to continue being a strong unit and carrying this team. A winning record in the best conference in college football would be quite an accomplishment for a team that was lucky to get 2 wins in conference for most of the past decade. The Bulldogs could even find themselves in a New Year's Day bowl game this year.
Washington
Our final rebounding program is the Huskies, who are moving forward under Ty Willingham's watchful eyes. QB Jake Locker was hyped too much last season, but expect the tough battles against Hawaii, USC, and Ohio State to pay huge dividends this year with a boatload of returning starters in Seattle. The schedule opens with three tough games against Oregon, BYU, and Oklahoma, but then the Huskies should be able to coast until battles against USC and UCLA. This should be the year Locker becomes a Heisman candidate, and with any support, he'll lead Washington back to prominence they have not experience since 2000-2001.
So that's a handful of programs that should experience rebounds this season and in the future. Some will be highly successful now, while others are just starting the long road back to respectability. We'll see you again in a week or two, once conference previews begin in earnest. Thanks for reading, and I look forward to a great 2008 season.
SCS.com Pick'Em Contest
Texas Tech
Now normally the Red Raiders don't fit into this kind of list because (1) they always have high expectations and underachieve, and (2) they have gone to bowl games every year since 2000. However, this year the shoe fits better than normal, and many will be surprised when they live up to expectations and move past the crummy bowls from the past 8 seasons and into the BCS. The schedule is a breeze until a trip to Aggie-land in the middle of October, and the only real tough game is at Oklahoma in late November after a bye week to rest up. Senior QB Graham Harrell and superstar WR Michael Crabtree return to lead the offense, while the defense should be much improved over past years. This could mean a lot less Red Raider shootout games, which also increases the chances they finally step up and make a run at Oklahoma and Texas in the Big XII.
Illinois
With the exception of a Big Ten championship run in 2001, Illinois has not been competitive or in a bowl since the early 90's until last season. Coach Ron Zook might have not been the dream coach for the Florida Gators, but he's fitting in nicely with this orange and blue crew. After bringing in a third straight highly ranked recruiting class and going to the first Rose Bowl in over 20 years, it appears this program will displace Wisconsin, Penn State, and Iowa as the true third good team in the Big Ten. Although Rashard Mendenhall is gone this year, QB Juice Williams will only get better this year and any dual-threat quarterback is tough to defend in the Big Ten. Zook's defense did not lose a ton either, so expect more great things from the Illini this year and beyond.
Notre Dame
And now we come to the portion of the article that will inevitably bring hate mail. There's no team in the sport more loved and hated than the Irish, but unfortunately for the Irish haters…Charlie Weis will not have two bad years in South Bend in a row. While Duke and Stanford are not an amazing duo of wins to close the season in 2007, at 1-9 any wins are steps in the right direction. It's taking some time for Charlie Weis to learn the college football recruiting system, but he will keep the Irish program improving overall from the dark days of the past decade. QB Jimmy Clausen will be much better in his second year, and he has time to grow as the schedule is not loaded up front this year with tough road games. Don’t expect another BCS run right away, but before long Weis will start not only getting the Irish there regularly, but also winning those big bowl games.
Pittsburgh
Despite having many great seasons under Walt Harris, three years ago the Panthers started a new era under Dave Wannstedt. Like Charlie Weis and many other professional football coaches, Wannstedt has had some growing pains turning Pittsburgh into a legitimate contender. Finally grabbing some defensive talent the past couple off-seasons, now the Panthers are showing promise in victories like the season-crushing defeat of West Virginia at Morgantown last December. It appears that even without academically-ineligible star receiver Maurice Williams in 2008, Pittsburgh's offense should finally step up and help the strong defense this year. Given the topsy-turvy nature of the Big East and Rich Rodriguez's departure, even Pittsburgh could end up in the BCS this year.
Miami
Randy Shannon took over a program that was beginning to look like the late 80's thugs known as the Hurricanes, and instilled some class in a football program that was lacking in that department under Larry Coker. Not truly competitive since the surprising upset loss to Ohio State in the 2003 National Championship, Shannon has a lot of work to do as evidenced by the 4-game slide at the end of 2007. Still, a move out of the Orange Bowl and back onto campus can only help Miami build a better relationship with the student body and turn things around. A solid class of juniors come back this season to lead the Hurricanes back to bowl eligibility. Don't expect a win in Gainesville week 2, but at least Miami should rebound and start the climb back to national prominence again. This time, expect the Hurricanes to do things the right way under Randy Shannon.
Mississippi State
After an embarrassing 45-0 home loss to LSU on national television to begin last season, it appeared Sylvester Croom was on his way to another three win season. Instead, the Bulldogs achieved their first winning record and bowl game since 2000 by running off seven wins in eleven games. With the exception of games against superb offensive units Arkansas, LSU, and West Virginia, the Bulldog defense held all other teams to an average of less than 20 points per game. The faithful in Starkville have stayed behind Croom and allowed him time to make this program into a winner, and this season should be even better than last year. Expect the defense to continue being a strong unit and carrying this team. A winning record in the best conference in college football would be quite an accomplishment for a team that was lucky to get 2 wins in conference for most of the past decade. The Bulldogs could even find themselves in a New Year's Day bowl game this year.
Washington
Our final rebounding program is the Huskies, who are moving forward under Ty Willingham's watchful eyes. QB Jake Locker was hyped too much last season, but expect the tough battles against Hawaii, USC, and Ohio State to pay huge dividends this year with a boatload of returning starters in Seattle. The schedule opens with three tough games against Oregon, BYU, and Oklahoma, but then the Huskies should be able to coast until battles against USC and UCLA. This should be the year Locker becomes a Heisman candidate, and with any support, he'll lead Washington back to prominence they have not experience since 2000-2001.
So that's a handful of programs that should experience rebounds this season and in the future. Some will be highly successful now, while others are just starting the long road back to respectability. We'll see you again in a week or two, once conference previews begin in earnest. Thanks for reading, and I look forward to a great 2008 season.
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