Following a crazy weekend, the elite in the college football world are picking up the pieces. None of the four well-accepted national title contenders at the beginning of the season could make it through September unscathed, as USC, Georgia, and Florida joined Ohio State this week in the one-loss bracket of the BCS Sweepstakes. Conference play indeed has proven that it will be tough going in 2008, just as in 2007 and 2006. The question going into October is whether this month will calm down and go out like a lamb or stay as crazy as last weekend.
Three of the top four teams and four of the top ten lost games this past weekend, the largest stumble for top teams in over two years. USC said all the right things about being focused and did all the wrong things at Oregon State, making the Beavers the most successful team against Pete Carroll. Florida just simply dropped the ball at home, losing inexplicably to Ole Miss. Georgia also lost at home, albeit to a tough Alabama team, but the Bulldogs were embarrassed by falling behind 31-0. Wisconsin apparently though 19-0 was enough against Michigan, but lost the big lead.
Now the list of one-loss teams is a real all-star show. Ranking USC, Ohio State, Florida, Georgia, Auburn, and Wisconsin is tough enough without having to compare them to "lower-tier" undefeated teams in the rankings. Although it may not last, Vanderbilt and Northwestern are closer to a BCS Championship than any of those big names right now. Is the college football world ready for BYU versus South Florida? The long weeks of October will clarify the BCS picture.
The SEC is clearly the battleground after the first week of conference play, but the spotlight may move to the Big XII as four top-ten teams remain undefeated and four of the South division teams are undefeated still after one week of conference play. Missouri is currently the top dog alongside Oklahoma, but whoever survives the South division gauntlet will have more than enough experience to challenge Chase Daniel and his Tigers for the conference title. One can only hope the Big XII has as much craziness as the SEC showed in Week 1.
The surprise of September has to be Alabama. What appeared to be a team a year away from serious SEC contention is now in the forefront of the BCS chase after a month where the Crimson Tide rocked Clemson on a neutral field and humbled the mighty Georgia Bulldogs between the hedges. The chances of running the table are still slim, but it would really be something if traditional powers Penn State and Alabama met for a national title. Nick Saban has squeezed every ounce of talent out of his defense, and all of a sudden the biggest SEC game might not be the Cocktail Party.
The only thing certain about October is that the top 10 will look a lot different in four weeks than it does now. Which Big XII and SEC teams will survive? Will USC, Penn State, Ohio State, and South Florida dominate as expected? Will anybody outside the MWC be undefeated November 1? The nation awaits the results with more bated breath over these questions than the presidential election!
Moving to this week's top games, the third best game of the week is Oregon at USC. Labeled as the biggest challenge to USC going into conference play, it turns out the Ducks will have to be quite impressive to top the OSU performance from last Thursday. The Ducks will need to improve on defense dramatically to stay in the game with an angry Trojan squad featuring QB Mark Sanchez and a stable full of top-notch running backs. Joe McKnight will definitely be looking to get back on track after a bad outing against Oregon State. The Ducks will give the USC defense a few different looks with two possible quarterbacks and two talented running backs LaGarrette Blount and Jeremiah Johnson. The key difference in this game is the USC defense, which will rebound from a tough third game. USC by 17.
The second top game of the week is Ohio State at Wisconsin. The Buckeyes have come into their own now that QB Terrelle Pryor has taken over the starting job and RB Chris Wells is healthy and bashing defenses again. The Buckeyes must prove themselves on the road now in a tough spot, Madison following a loss that will make the Badgers ready for vengeance. The Badgers defense will try to force as many turovers as they pulled from the Wolverines, but the real battle will be the traditional Wisconsin running offense against run-stuffing linebackers Ross Homan, James Laurinaitis, and Marcus Freeman. These two teams have played very close games in the past decade, with the Buckeyes winning three of the last five meetings and only one decision by more than two scores. The Buckeyes appear to have the perfect defense for this one, but Wisconsin ends any notion of a BCS three-peat with a 4 point win.
Another week, another SEC showdown to top the best games list. This time, the SEC offers Auburn's visit to Vanderbilt as the top game of the week. Outside of a surprising shootout loss to LSU, Auburn's defense has put serious clamps down on all opponents, holding each to less than 14. The Tigers have no room for error, as LSU looks ready to be at least 10-2 this season. Vanderbilt jumps into the national spotlight after starting 4-0 under the competent leadership of QB Chris Nickson. The Commodores run the ball first and ask questions later, so look for Auburn to force Nickson to make some plays with his arm throughout the night. Auburn QB Chris Todd will need to avoid mistakes on the road, as Vanderbilt is better than most fans around the country assume. Still, these are games Auburn wins thanks to a stiff defense. No shootout here, Auburn wins by 10.
2008 GOTW Record: 9-6
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 - Week 5
1. Missouri (4-0)
2. Alabama (5-0)
3. Oklahoma (4-0)
4. LSU (4-0)
5. Penn State (5-0)
6. BYU (4-0)
7. Texas Tech (4-0)
8. Texas (4-0)
9. South Florida (5-0)
10. Auburn (4-1)
Just Missed: USC, Ohio State, Georgia, Florida, Utah
Not to bring a dash of sadness to the column, but I have to wish my high school friend Pamela best wishes as she moves into the afterlife. Your tragic suicide at such a young age reminds us all to cherish the happy and sad moments we have and especially the friends we have, as you never know when they will be gone forever. Enjoy this week of college football and we'll see you here next week!
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Conference Call - Now The Real Battles Emerge
After a fun-filled first four weeks of the college football season, autumn has officially arrived and with it comes conference play. For the most part, conferences will be judged on what they have done to this point and that could make the difference between a BCS at-large berth and a lesser bowl game. This week we'll take a quick rundown of each conference race and rank the conferences, with the best coming first.
1. SEC - Is there any doubt that the SEC is the best conference in America? Four top 10 teams and at least as many legitimate national championship contenders will make this race highly entertaining as usual. The top contenders in the East are Florida and Georgia. These teams play on a neutral site but Georgia faces Alabama and LSU on the road while Florida plays LSU at home and misses Alabama. Florida may even be able to lose to Georgia and win the division at 7-1. LSU escaped at Auburn and still must face the remaining three contenders, likely too much to go undefeated. Alabama is the surprise of the conference and could certainly become a frontrunner with a win at home against Georgia. Other contenders include Auburn out west, who could still overcome the loss to LSU; and Vanderbilt in the East, if they continue to play above their heads and chaos reigns in the East. Almost every week will have one of the top three games nationally, and the nation will continue to watch the epic battles.
2. Big XII - After a few down years where Oklahoma and Texas walked over everyone and the North division was an absolute joke, the best conference in the Midwest is now the Big XII. Unlike the SEC, the Big XII does have a few weak programs including Baylor and Iowa state. The North championship will again run through Missouri, as Chase Daniel and the Tigers have blown away four pretty solid teams thus far. Nebraska looks solid and Colorado is undefeated, but both need to prove it on the road. Kansas will be Missouri's prime competition, but games against Texas and Oklahoma will likely doom the Jayhawks. Down South the Longhorns will have too tough an October to survive, while Texas Tech and Oklahoma should play for the title in Norman on November 22 after a bye week for each. Oklahoma State could compete as well. Look for Oklahoma and Missouri: the rematch.
3. Big Ten - The drop-off from the top two conference to this spot is massive. The Big Ten holds down this spot thanks to what appears to be five or six very solid teams, and even the struggling programs are decent. The most intriguing game of the opening conference week may be 4-0 Northwestern at 3-1 Iowa, as both are better than expected and a real contender may emerge. Minnesota already has four times as many wins as last year and should be in the bowl mix, while Penn State and Wisconsin are the frontrunners after Ohio State's fall from grace. Michigan State should make Wisconsin and Ohio State sweat on the road as well. Wisconsin has the best setup with both Ohio State and Penn State coming to Madison, but they are consecutive weeks. Of course, Terrelle Pryor gives the Big Ten a major problem if Chris Wells indeed returns healthy. This race will definitely be more competitve than the past two years, and that is a good thing.
4. Big East - The "little guys" of the BCS clock in here because two superstar programs have fallen on hard times in West Virginia and Rutgers. Still, newcomers Connecticut, South Florida, and Cincinnati could compete on the big stage. Louisville and Pittsburgh have recovered from bad losses to become outside contenders as well. South Florida is the most battle-tested of the bunch and has the defense to compete in road games at Cincinnati and West Virginia. Connecticut faces a tough three game roadtrip starting this week but could surprise a lot of conference foes. Except for Syracuse, anybody (including 0-3 Rutgers) could end up winning the conference. Look for the winner of Cincinnati and South Florida to be the favorite.
5. Pac-10 - The past two weeks have managed to drop a clear third-best conference down this far where they will likely linger until bowl season. It will be a shocker if USC is even challenged, and this may hurt any chances of being competitive in BCS play. In fact, USC may be the odd team out again if the SEC and Big XII surprise and deliver undefeated champions. Every team outside of USC has already started conference play, but every team has dropped a shocker in non-conference play. Oregon and California are still the top contenders despite lackluster non-conference performances. Both go to the LA Coliseum, and the only real race will be if any other team can contend for the BCS with two losses. At this point, it does not look like it.
6. MWC - When the worst team in the conference almost beat Notre Dame on the road, it almost puts the Mountain West into the top 5 conference, a massive feat for a non-BCS crew. Not only are Utah and BYU better than the critics expected, TCU gives the league incredible depth and BCS possibilities. Although winning in the Big House may not be as impressive as usual, Utah played a terrible game and won there. Assuming no slip-ups, Utah will benefit from getting both TCU and BYU at home. One cannot discount upset hopes for Air Force, UNLV, and Wyoming every week.
7. ACC - To be honest, this conference almost ranks lower than #7. Forget the Big East, take the ACC BCS berth away after a 1-9 start in the first decade! Virginia Tech has survived one of the worst opening four weeks to emerge 2-0 in conference play having already defeated both of their main competitors in the Coastal division in UNC and Georgia Tech. The real interesting race will be in the Atlantic, where Wake Forest and Clemson will be tested by Maryland and Boston College. Wake Forest may have a little less talent than Clemson, but the Tigers must go to Winston-Salem. Virginia Tech has to be the favorite, but it's a long road before January.
8. WAC - Despite Fresno State's loss to Wisconsin, this league could still send Boise State to the BCS again. The race should not go any deeper than that, but this is still enough to make the conference better than those with no legitimate BCS contenders.
9. C-USA - The run for BCS stardom may not yet be over after East Carolina's loss. ECU surprised a lot of people with big wins and may be able to recover thanks to such a tough schedule. Still, Tulsa is the favorite now that they remain as the only undefeated team left, including a favorable schedule missing ECU and getting Rice at home. Look for a much-anticipated East Carolina vs. Tulsa battle, unless UCF or Rice pulls a surprise.
10. MAC - Although no teams are in serious BCS contention here, the conference should have a good race. Buffalo and Ball State are resurgent and could meet in the championship. Look for the best (and only) 0-4 team in the country Ohio to compete with Buffalo and Miami (OH) in the East, while Ball State will have to survive Central Michigan on the road. Look for the Chippewas to defend their title against Buffalo.
11. Sun Belt - There's only one team to even discuss here, and it is the Troy Trojans of Alabama. Despite playing Ohio State and LSU on the road, this team has built up a dominant set of talent that should breeze through the likes of Arkansas State and Louisiana.
Moving on to the top games of the week, the first is Virginia Tech at Nebraska. The Hokies have recovered from a shocking loss to ECU to all but lock up a spot in the ACc Championship. Nebraska has a potent offense led by seniors QB Joe Ganz and RB Marlon Lucky. Still, Nebraska has faced no defense as good as the Hokies. The Husker fans are really lurking after a few years out of the spotlight, and Nebraska has had two weeks to prepare. Virginia Tech wins by 7 thanks to being in midseason form already.
The second game of the week is TCU at Oklahoma. The Sooners have absolutely mauled decent Washington and good Cincinnati teams already, while TCU is a surprising 4-0 thanks to a return to the defense that helped the Horned Frogs compete a couple years ago on a national stage. Dual-threat QB Andy Dalton has five touchdowns on the ground and good air stats outside of a 0/1 touchdown to interception ratio in four games. RB Ryan Christian helps the Horned frogs give Oklahoma something to think about. The Sooners defense will be tested again after giving up too many points to cincinnati, but Sam Bradford has been magnificent behind center this season. Oklahoma wins a very close one by 3.
The overall top game of the week again comes from SEC land, Alabama at Georgia. The Crimson Tide are a lot better than expected, and "wait till next year" will go away with a win here. Georgia has the deadly trio of a top-threat passer Matthew Stafford, a slicing running back Knowshon Moreno, and a true deep threat WR A.J. Green. In a battle between mastermind coaches, never underestimate the underdog mentality. Georgia simply has too much for Alabama to keep up with, but Alabama is well-tested and will perhaps make this one go down to the last possession. Bulldogs by 7.
2008 GOTW Record: 7-5
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 - Week 4
1. USC (2-0)
2. Missouri (4-0)
3. Florida (3-0)
4. Georgia (4-0)
5. Oklahoma (3-0)
6. wisconsin (3-0)
7. LSU (3-0)
8. Texas Tech (4-0)
9. BYU (4-0)
10. Penn State (4-0)
Just Missed: Texas, South Florida, Alabama, Auburn, Ohio State
With most teams jumping into battles with teams they meet every year, there will inevitably be some shockers and potholes for top teams along the way. Experience breeds upsets and contempt, which is a good thing for this sport. Have a great week!
1. SEC - Is there any doubt that the SEC is the best conference in America? Four top 10 teams and at least as many legitimate national championship contenders will make this race highly entertaining as usual. The top contenders in the East are Florida and Georgia. These teams play on a neutral site but Georgia faces Alabama and LSU on the road while Florida plays LSU at home and misses Alabama. Florida may even be able to lose to Georgia and win the division at 7-1. LSU escaped at Auburn and still must face the remaining three contenders, likely too much to go undefeated. Alabama is the surprise of the conference and could certainly become a frontrunner with a win at home against Georgia. Other contenders include Auburn out west, who could still overcome the loss to LSU; and Vanderbilt in the East, if they continue to play above their heads and chaos reigns in the East. Almost every week will have one of the top three games nationally, and the nation will continue to watch the epic battles.
2. Big XII - After a few down years where Oklahoma and Texas walked over everyone and the North division was an absolute joke, the best conference in the Midwest is now the Big XII. Unlike the SEC, the Big XII does have a few weak programs including Baylor and Iowa state. The North championship will again run through Missouri, as Chase Daniel and the Tigers have blown away four pretty solid teams thus far. Nebraska looks solid and Colorado is undefeated, but both need to prove it on the road. Kansas will be Missouri's prime competition, but games against Texas and Oklahoma will likely doom the Jayhawks. Down South the Longhorns will have too tough an October to survive, while Texas Tech and Oklahoma should play for the title in Norman on November 22 after a bye week for each. Oklahoma State could compete as well. Look for Oklahoma and Missouri: the rematch.
3. Big Ten - The drop-off from the top two conference to this spot is massive. The Big Ten holds down this spot thanks to what appears to be five or six very solid teams, and even the struggling programs are decent. The most intriguing game of the opening conference week may be 4-0 Northwestern at 3-1 Iowa, as both are better than expected and a real contender may emerge. Minnesota already has four times as many wins as last year and should be in the bowl mix, while Penn State and Wisconsin are the frontrunners after Ohio State's fall from grace. Michigan State should make Wisconsin and Ohio State sweat on the road as well. Wisconsin has the best setup with both Ohio State and Penn State coming to Madison, but they are consecutive weeks. Of course, Terrelle Pryor gives the Big Ten a major problem if Chris Wells indeed returns healthy. This race will definitely be more competitve than the past two years, and that is a good thing.
4. Big East - The "little guys" of the BCS clock in here because two superstar programs have fallen on hard times in West Virginia and Rutgers. Still, newcomers Connecticut, South Florida, and Cincinnati could compete on the big stage. Louisville and Pittsburgh have recovered from bad losses to become outside contenders as well. South Florida is the most battle-tested of the bunch and has the defense to compete in road games at Cincinnati and West Virginia. Connecticut faces a tough three game roadtrip starting this week but could surprise a lot of conference foes. Except for Syracuse, anybody (including 0-3 Rutgers) could end up winning the conference. Look for the winner of Cincinnati and South Florida to be the favorite.
5. Pac-10 - The past two weeks have managed to drop a clear third-best conference down this far where they will likely linger until bowl season. It will be a shocker if USC is even challenged, and this may hurt any chances of being competitive in BCS play. In fact, USC may be the odd team out again if the SEC and Big XII surprise and deliver undefeated champions. Every team outside of USC has already started conference play, but every team has dropped a shocker in non-conference play. Oregon and California are still the top contenders despite lackluster non-conference performances. Both go to the LA Coliseum, and the only real race will be if any other team can contend for the BCS with two losses. At this point, it does not look like it.
6. MWC - When the worst team in the conference almost beat Notre Dame on the road, it almost puts the Mountain West into the top 5 conference, a massive feat for a non-BCS crew. Not only are Utah and BYU better than the critics expected, TCU gives the league incredible depth and BCS possibilities. Although winning in the Big House may not be as impressive as usual, Utah played a terrible game and won there. Assuming no slip-ups, Utah will benefit from getting both TCU and BYU at home. One cannot discount upset hopes for Air Force, UNLV, and Wyoming every week.
7. ACC - To be honest, this conference almost ranks lower than #7. Forget the Big East, take the ACC BCS berth away after a 1-9 start in the first decade! Virginia Tech has survived one of the worst opening four weeks to emerge 2-0 in conference play having already defeated both of their main competitors in the Coastal division in UNC and Georgia Tech. The real interesting race will be in the Atlantic, where Wake Forest and Clemson will be tested by Maryland and Boston College. Wake Forest may have a little less talent than Clemson, but the Tigers must go to Winston-Salem. Virginia Tech has to be the favorite, but it's a long road before January.
8. WAC - Despite Fresno State's loss to Wisconsin, this league could still send Boise State to the BCS again. The race should not go any deeper than that, but this is still enough to make the conference better than those with no legitimate BCS contenders.
9. C-USA - The run for BCS stardom may not yet be over after East Carolina's loss. ECU surprised a lot of people with big wins and may be able to recover thanks to such a tough schedule. Still, Tulsa is the favorite now that they remain as the only undefeated team left, including a favorable schedule missing ECU and getting Rice at home. Look for a much-anticipated East Carolina vs. Tulsa battle, unless UCF or Rice pulls a surprise.
10. MAC - Although no teams are in serious BCS contention here, the conference should have a good race. Buffalo and Ball State are resurgent and could meet in the championship. Look for the best (and only) 0-4 team in the country Ohio to compete with Buffalo and Miami (OH) in the East, while Ball State will have to survive Central Michigan on the road. Look for the Chippewas to defend their title against Buffalo.
11. Sun Belt - There's only one team to even discuss here, and it is the Troy Trojans of Alabama. Despite playing Ohio State and LSU on the road, this team has built up a dominant set of talent that should breeze through the likes of Arkansas State and Louisiana.
Moving on to the top games of the week, the first is Virginia Tech at Nebraska. The Hokies have recovered from a shocking loss to ECU to all but lock up a spot in the ACc Championship. Nebraska has a potent offense led by seniors QB Joe Ganz and RB Marlon Lucky. Still, Nebraska has faced no defense as good as the Hokies. The Husker fans are really lurking after a few years out of the spotlight, and Nebraska has had two weeks to prepare. Virginia Tech wins by 7 thanks to being in midseason form already.
The second game of the week is TCU at Oklahoma. The Sooners have absolutely mauled decent Washington and good Cincinnati teams already, while TCU is a surprising 4-0 thanks to a return to the defense that helped the Horned Frogs compete a couple years ago on a national stage. Dual-threat QB Andy Dalton has five touchdowns on the ground and good air stats outside of a 0/1 touchdown to interception ratio in four games. RB Ryan Christian helps the Horned frogs give Oklahoma something to think about. The Sooners defense will be tested again after giving up too many points to cincinnati, but Sam Bradford has been magnificent behind center this season. Oklahoma wins a very close one by 3.
The overall top game of the week again comes from SEC land, Alabama at Georgia. The Crimson Tide are a lot better than expected, and "wait till next year" will go away with a win here. Georgia has the deadly trio of a top-threat passer Matthew Stafford, a slicing running back Knowshon Moreno, and a true deep threat WR A.J. Green. In a battle between mastermind coaches, never underestimate the underdog mentality. Georgia simply has too much for Alabama to keep up with, but Alabama is well-tested and will perhaps make this one go down to the last possession. Bulldogs by 7.
2008 GOTW Record: 7-5
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 - Week 4
1. USC (2-0)
2. Missouri (4-0)
3. Florida (3-0)
4. Georgia (4-0)
5. Oklahoma (3-0)
6. wisconsin (3-0)
7. LSU (3-0)
8. Texas Tech (4-0)
9. BYU (4-0)
10. Penn State (4-0)
Just Missed: Texas, South Florida, Alabama, Auburn, Ohio State
With most teams jumping into battles with teams they meet every year, there will inevitably be some shockers and potholes for top teams along the way. Experience breeds upsets and contempt, which is a good thing for this sport. Have a great week!
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Hopes Dashed: Blown Back To The Stone Age
With the best week of non-conference football behind us now, it is time to turn the national spotlight to regional battles and conference play. Much like the broad swath of country flooded or blacked out by Hurricane Ike this weekend, quite a few teams and conferences were blown back to the starting block this weekend. After watching the ACC and Big East struggle mightily in the first two weeks, the misery continued in other parts of the country. Before jumping into the meat of my point, let me send a quick word of admiration for all the power company employees and rescue operations going on in Texas all the way up to my neck of the woods in the Great Lakes. Without your help, most of us could not enjoy the sport that we use every Saturday to get away from it all. So thanks to all of you!
First and foremost on the docket was the showdown in the Los Angeles Coliseum. USC became the clear frontrunner for the BCS Championship by thoroughly dominating a very strong Ohio State squad. Praise should be given to the Trojans and Pete Carroll, but that can be dished out over the remainder of the season. The flip side of the game was Ohio State stumbling for the third straight year on the biggest national stage possible, but unlike the LSU “road game” in January, this one was never even close. Ohio State (according to pro talent) has top-3 talent alongside Florida and USC, yet the players looked absolutely overmatched by their “equals” on Saturday night. Ohio State’s offense the past two weeks has been abysmal, and the Silver Bullet defense is not playing anything like the units in 2002 and 2006 that dominated games. Jim Tressel had a good gameplan switching quarterbacks to throw off the USC defense, but the gameplan got too lazy in the second half and allowed the Trojans to successfully blitz every time one Mr. Boeckman took a snap. Still, the worst loss in 14 years has to beg the question where do the Buckeyes go from here? A roadtrip to suddenly-favorite Wisconsin looms in three weeks and the Buckeyes must find a way to instill some rage and excitement in their players who currently look lethargic and beaten-down. My advice: go read some national newspapers OSU. If that does not make your blood boil, there’s no solution and this team will likely struggle just to get to a January 1 bowl game let alone the BCS.
The Big Ten conference as a whole also did not exactly have a banner day, but things are not as bad as some would say. The day started great with an Illinois escape of Louisiana and Iowa completely shutting down rival Iowa State, but things turned sour in the late afternoon. Michigan’s offense has now added turnovers to the continuing list of problems Rich Rodriguez must fix as the Wolverines got crushed by Notre Dame. Purdue was a darkhorse to contend for a title with OSU, UW, and PSU, but the Boilermakers could not stop Oregon from coming back and stealing a win in West Lafayette. Then the Buckeyes took the field in LA, or at least some guys dressed in White and Gray jerseys did. At least Wisconsin got a tough road win at Fresno state, but even the Badgers did not look all that good in the victory. While the supposed leader of the conference was blown away, the rest of the league did not impress. This is bad news for a conference looking to rehabilitate its national image as compared to the Big XII and the SEC.
While it may sound like the Pac-10 picked up the pieces and joined the two power conferences going into regional play, the opposite is true. Outside of Oregon’s narrow escape and USC, the conference was blown back to the starting block again. UCLA, with all its promise and fanfare, laid an absolute egg against BYU in a 59-0 loss. California slept through the first three quarters at a weak Maryland team and could not recover in time to win. Arizona State took the luster off a showdown with Georgia next weekend by choking at home to UNLV. Washington was mauled by Oklahoma and Washington State joined the Huskies at 0-3. Even Arizona and Stanford lost, to New Mexico and TCU, respectively. The Pac-10 is a lot closer to the Big Ten, Big East, and ACC than the elite conferences after this week. Sure, USC is the best looking team in the country, but they will likely not be truly tested again until the BCS game. That could lead to a lack of focus and determination as the season progresses. Signs are not good for the Pac-10.
One last team whose season hopes were blown away this weekend was Fresno State. This home game against Wisconsin was supposed to be the coming out party for a BCS contender, and instead turned into a nightmare loss. Given the prowess of Utah, BYU, ECU, and Boise State, Fresno State had to go undefeated to even hope for BCS consideration. The Bulldogs will still be ranked this year, but the real goals for Pat Hill’s team are as dead as any discussion of Ohio State making the BCS Championship in 2009. Non-BCS conference teams have no margin for error, and so Fresno State is long gone in the discussion of BCS busters.
An interesting case study arises thanks to the two conferences linked by last weekend’s problems as well as Rose Bowl tradition. With the exception of one down year in 2004, Ohio State has dominated the Big Ten for six seasons, racking up 2 shared and 2 outright conference titles against Midwest-style competition. Now all of a sudden, the national game appears to have passed the Buckeyes by as OSU has struggled to win against national-title caliber competition each of the past four seasons (lost to Texas in 2005, beat Michigan but lost to Florida in 2006, lost to LSU in 2007, lost to USC this season). The Big Ten is apparently suffering because nobody is challenging the Buckeyes, or at least that’s the popular theory. USC under Peter Carroll has been flawless in winning six conference titles since 2002 and really never being threatened for the crown except for two unexplainable losses in 2007 that dropped the Trojans into a tie. With the Pac-10 seemingly lagging farther and farther behind as programs like Arizona State, Washington, and UCLA get crushed by national competition, will USC stagnate over the next few years and cause the runaway Pac-10 to be breeding grounds for failure and national embarrassment? If it happens to USC, then the true value of parity and competition will be proven. The SEC and the rest of the country eagerly await the results.
Moving onto this week’s slate of games, the third best game of the week is Boise State traveling west to face Oregon in tough Autzen Stadium. The Ducks are thanking their lucky stars and everybody else for the escape from West Lafayette in double overtime, but perhaps this was a necessary wake-up call to the only team seemingly close to USC in the Pac-10. Sophomore QB Justin Roper has taken the reins well in the 3-0 start and leads the offense. The real problem for the Bronco defense will be stopping both the Ducks running backs LaGarrette Blount and Jeremiah Johnson. On the other side of the ball, RB Ian Johnson will be looking to get his first 100-yard game of the year to take pressure off rookie starting QB Kellen Moore. The Ducks just have something special with the home field advantage and the Day-Glo uniforms which change every week, and the WAC’s last hope for BCS glory disappear with a 14 point Duck win.
The second game of the week sends national powerhouse Georgia across the country to battle the Arizona State Sun Devils. The Bulldogs have the household pro-level talent of QB Matthew Stafford, RB Knowshon Moreno, and WR Mohamed Massaquoi, while the Sun Devils counter with a potent passing attack led by senior QB Rudy Carpenter. Until last week’s shocking home loss to UNLV, Coach Erickson appeared to have ASU headed in the right direction to start competing with USC and other national powers. Arizona State will have to be more balanced against the salty Bulldog defense, or else Carpenter will face more pressure than he has ever faced in his long career. Look for Mark Richt to pull out a few tricks after the Bulldogs struggled last week, and Georgia should find enough big plays to allow their defense to dominate. A 20 point win seals Georgia as another contender for #1.
The top game of the week may not be as hyped as USC-OSU, but a crucial SEC showdown between LSU and Auburn may decide who wins the West Division and has a chance as a national title. Even better, this Saturday night showdown should actually be close! The Bayou Bengals probably hoped to have another tune-up last week before this showdown to clarify whether Andrew Hatch or Jarrett Lee will be the starting signal-caller, but LSU is not afforded that luxury. Auburn will be looking to recover from a mind-boggling game where they scored only a field goal against Mississippi State and yet still managed to win. This game will be decided in the trenches like most SEC battles, and LSU has the better line talent. Still, if Auburn RB Ben Tate outplays LSU RB Charles Scott, that could equalize the talent differential. Despite the hiccup last week, I think Auburn recovers and defends the home turf by knocking off the champs by 3.
2008 GOTW Record to Date: 6-3
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 – Week 3
1. USC (2-0)
2. Missouri (3-0)
3. Florida (2-0)
4. Georgia (3-0)
5. Oklahoma (3-0)
6. Wisconsin (3-0)
7. LSU (2-0)
8. Texas Tech (3-0)
9. Auburn (3-0)
10. East Carolina (3-0)
Just Missed: BYU, Texas, Penn State, South Florida, Alabama
As conference play begins, look for the battles to become better and better. Again, I wish all the people from Texas to Michigan the best in recovering from Ike and hopefully we can peacefully enjoy this weekend of college football. See you next week!
First and foremost on the docket was the showdown in the Los Angeles Coliseum. USC became the clear frontrunner for the BCS Championship by thoroughly dominating a very strong Ohio State squad. Praise should be given to the Trojans and Pete Carroll, but that can be dished out over the remainder of the season. The flip side of the game was Ohio State stumbling for the third straight year on the biggest national stage possible, but unlike the LSU “road game” in January, this one was never even close. Ohio State (according to pro talent) has top-3 talent alongside Florida and USC, yet the players looked absolutely overmatched by their “equals” on Saturday night. Ohio State’s offense the past two weeks has been abysmal, and the Silver Bullet defense is not playing anything like the units in 2002 and 2006 that dominated games. Jim Tressel had a good gameplan switching quarterbacks to throw off the USC defense, but the gameplan got too lazy in the second half and allowed the Trojans to successfully blitz every time one Mr. Boeckman took a snap. Still, the worst loss in 14 years has to beg the question where do the Buckeyes go from here? A roadtrip to suddenly-favorite Wisconsin looms in three weeks and the Buckeyes must find a way to instill some rage and excitement in their players who currently look lethargic and beaten-down. My advice: go read some national newspapers OSU. If that does not make your blood boil, there’s no solution and this team will likely struggle just to get to a January 1 bowl game let alone the BCS.
The Big Ten conference as a whole also did not exactly have a banner day, but things are not as bad as some would say. The day started great with an Illinois escape of Louisiana and Iowa completely shutting down rival Iowa State, but things turned sour in the late afternoon. Michigan’s offense has now added turnovers to the continuing list of problems Rich Rodriguez must fix as the Wolverines got crushed by Notre Dame. Purdue was a darkhorse to contend for a title with OSU, UW, and PSU, but the Boilermakers could not stop Oregon from coming back and stealing a win in West Lafayette. Then the Buckeyes took the field in LA, or at least some guys dressed in White and Gray jerseys did. At least Wisconsin got a tough road win at Fresno state, but even the Badgers did not look all that good in the victory. While the supposed leader of the conference was blown away, the rest of the league did not impress. This is bad news for a conference looking to rehabilitate its national image as compared to the Big XII and the SEC.
While it may sound like the Pac-10 picked up the pieces and joined the two power conferences going into regional play, the opposite is true. Outside of Oregon’s narrow escape and USC, the conference was blown back to the starting block again. UCLA, with all its promise and fanfare, laid an absolute egg against BYU in a 59-0 loss. California slept through the first three quarters at a weak Maryland team and could not recover in time to win. Arizona State took the luster off a showdown with Georgia next weekend by choking at home to UNLV. Washington was mauled by Oklahoma and Washington State joined the Huskies at 0-3. Even Arizona and Stanford lost, to New Mexico and TCU, respectively. The Pac-10 is a lot closer to the Big Ten, Big East, and ACC than the elite conferences after this week. Sure, USC is the best looking team in the country, but they will likely not be truly tested again until the BCS game. That could lead to a lack of focus and determination as the season progresses. Signs are not good for the Pac-10.
One last team whose season hopes were blown away this weekend was Fresno State. This home game against Wisconsin was supposed to be the coming out party for a BCS contender, and instead turned into a nightmare loss. Given the prowess of Utah, BYU, ECU, and Boise State, Fresno State had to go undefeated to even hope for BCS consideration. The Bulldogs will still be ranked this year, but the real goals for Pat Hill’s team are as dead as any discussion of Ohio State making the BCS Championship in 2009. Non-BCS conference teams have no margin for error, and so Fresno State is long gone in the discussion of BCS busters.
An interesting case study arises thanks to the two conferences linked by last weekend’s problems as well as Rose Bowl tradition. With the exception of one down year in 2004, Ohio State has dominated the Big Ten for six seasons, racking up 2 shared and 2 outright conference titles against Midwest-style competition. Now all of a sudden, the national game appears to have passed the Buckeyes by as OSU has struggled to win against national-title caliber competition each of the past four seasons (lost to Texas in 2005, beat Michigan but lost to Florida in 2006, lost to LSU in 2007, lost to USC this season). The Big Ten is apparently suffering because nobody is challenging the Buckeyes, or at least that’s the popular theory. USC under Peter Carroll has been flawless in winning six conference titles since 2002 and really never being threatened for the crown except for two unexplainable losses in 2007 that dropped the Trojans into a tie. With the Pac-10 seemingly lagging farther and farther behind as programs like Arizona State, Washington, and UCLA get crushed by national competition, will USC stagnate over the next few years and cause the runaway Pac-10 to be breeding grounds for failure and national embarrassment? If it happens to USC, then the true value of parity and competition will be proven. The SEC and the rest of the country eagerly await the results.
Moving onto this week’s slate of games, the third best game of the week is Boise State traveling west to face Oregon in tough Autzen Stadium. The Ducks are thanking their lucky stars and everybody else for the escape from West Lafayette in double overtime, but perhaps this was a necessary wake-up call to the only team seemingly close to USC in the Pac-10. Sophomore QB Justin Roper has taken the reins well in the 3-0 start and leads the offense. The real problem for the Bronco defense will be stopping both the Ducks running backs LaGarrette Blount and Jeremiah Johnson. On the other side of the ball, RB Ian Johnson will be looking to get his first 100-yard game of the year to take pressure off rookie starting QB Kellen Moore. The Ducks just have something special with the home field advantage and the Day-Glo uniforms which change every week, and the WAC’s last hope for BCS glory disappear with a 14 point Duck win.
The second game of the week sends national powerhouse Georgia across the country to battle the Arizona State Sun Devils. The Bulldogs have the household pro-level talent of QB Matthew Stafford, RB Knowshon Moreno, and WR Mohamed Massaquoi, while the Sun Devils counter with a potent passing attack led by senior QB Rudy Carpenter. Until last week’s shocking home loss to UNLV, Coach Erickson appeared to have ASU headed in the right direction to start competing with USC and other national powers. Arizona State will have to be more balanced against the salty Bulldog defense, or else Carpenter will face more pressure than he has ever faced in his long career. Look for Mark Richt to pull out a few tricks after the Bulldogs struggled last week, and Georgia should find enough big plays to allow their defense to dominate. A 20 point win seals Georgia as another contender for #1.
The top game of the week may not be as hyped as USC-OSU, but a crucial SEC showdown between LSU and Auburn may decide who wins the West Division and has a chance as a national title. Even better, this Saturday night showdown should actually be close! The Bayou Bengals probably hoped to have another tune-up last week before this showdown to clarify whether Andrew Hatch or Jarrett Lee will be the starting signal-caller, but LSU is not afforded that luxury. Auburn will be looking to recover from a mind-boggling game where they scored only a field goal against Mississippi State and yet still managed to win. This game will be decided in the trenches like most SEC battles, and LSU has the better line talent. Still, if Auburn RB Ben Tate outplays LSU RB Charles Scott, that could equalize the talent differential. Despite the hiccup last week, I think Auburn recovers and defends the home turf by knocking off the champs by 3.
2008 GOTW Record to Date: 6-3
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 – Week 3
1. USC (2-0)
2. Missouri (3-0)
3. Florida (2-0)
4. Georgia (3-0)
5. Oklahoma (3-0)
6. Wisconsin (3-0)
7. LSU (2-0)
8. Texas Tech (3-0)
9. Auburn (3-0)
10. East Carolina (3-0)
Just Missed: BYU, Texas, Penn State, South Florida, Alabama
As conference play begins, look for the battles to become better and better. Again, I wish all the people from Texas to Michigan the best in recovering from Ike and hopefully we can peacefully enjoy this weekend of college football. See you next week!
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
A College Football Week to Remember
For those expecting a masterpiece last week, you were sorely left holding out hope. When the "best" game of the week according to the national media is a rebuilding Miami team going to The Swamp to take on a top 5 Gator team, there must not be much to hope for. Nevertheless, for every Oklahoma-Cincinnati blowout there was a surprisingly exciting SDSU-Notre Dame or Ohio-Ohio State game. On the bright side for me, I had my mind on other things all week as I welcomed my daughter into the world Wednesday evening. We came back from the hospital on Saturday morning, so her first home experience was College Gameday guys followed by a day of the greatest sport of them all. So for me, it was a week to remember forever. For you sports fans, probably not so much. But look on the bright side: this week has some monster matchups, including the best non-conference tilt of the year.
Before hopping into those games coming up, there were a few notable things in the mostly boring slate of games. First and foremost was the debacle in Seattle as BYU escaped Washington with a 28-27 win after Washington QB Jake Locker was flagged for excessive celebration on the last drive of the game, leading to a missed PAT and a one point loss. The controversy is whether the flag should have been dropped at all. While it is true Jake Locker tossed the ball into the air after the late touchdown, there's something to be said for the emotion of the moment. While spiking the ball after going ahead 28-0 in the second quarter should be penalized as well as the Florida-Georgia endzone celebratory antics, the letter of the law should bend to the spirit of the situation. It's no secret that basketball officials will swallow the whistle in the last minute of a game and let the players make plays. While fans scream for consistency in rule enforcement, these sports situations are not life and death.
To be fair, officials could call holding, pass interference, and blocks in the back on pretty much every play if we follow the letter of the law. The key is to not break the rules of be so unsportsmanlike to disrupt the fair play. Having watched replays of Locker's toss, this was a perfect situation for the referees to swallow the whistle and let the players have a little fun. There was no disruption of the special teams coming on the field or undue delay, and the emotion for Washington finally competing for a big win after having so much promise the past two years had to be the cause of the small celebration. As a lawyer in real life, I can tell you the world is a lot better off enforcing rules and regulations by their spirit and not always by the letter because rulemakers or legislators have a tougher job than most think. Writing rules of conduct is very difficult, and most try to clear up gray areas in too few words. Hence, what the NCAA rules say does not matter. What should have been called is what matters.
Before we drag this column down any farther, step back and realize what happened. Washington was faced with a bad call and some adversity, but they were still in control of a very make-able PAT to tie. Washington simply did not recover from the poor call, and like Oklahoma against Oregon in 2006, needs to realize they lost because they missed the extra point and did not handle their business. It was probably better for the college football universe that BYU remains undefeated yet tested. Perhaps this will spark the Cougars to go undefeated into a battle with Utah at season's end. Alongside East Carolina, these two teams could make a run to maybe steal two of the BCS at large berths, a scenario most deem impossible.
Speaking of the Pirates, who knew that ECU could actually turn years of tough experience and rough non-conference scheduling into these results? Even in East Carolina's heyday back in the late 1990's, ECU never knocked off two straight opponents of the caliber of these 2008 opponents. Virginia Tech was overrated, but beating any Beamer team that gets a punt block is pretty much unheard of. To follow that up by shutting down one of the most prolific offenses in I-A football was BCS-busting at its best. Now the purple Pirates really have no ranked teams standing in their way, and it will be interesting to see how this team keeps enthusiasm up during C-USA play. Still, it is hard to imagine this team's defense giving up more than 21 in any game this year. A pretty easy task it seems for the ECU offense to carry the team to BCS glory.
Kudos to the national polls and my fellow writers on giving credit where credit is due. Sometimes it is hard to move teams around in the rankings, but preseason rankings are really meaningless. Do I still think Georgia and Ohio State have more talent than USC? Yes. Based on performances thus far, USC is a clear number 1 above all others. Despite dropping the Buckeyes this week, a win on the road at USC would almost guarantee the top spot in the polls next week. It appears people are finally catching on the farce of maintaining pre-season rankings. Furthermore, seeing East Carolina near the Top 10 is very appropriate considering there's not another team in America with two wins over ranked opponents so far this season. Until shown otherwise, ECU is in the Top 15 for my ballot.
Usually when the big game of the season comes along, the habit has been for this column to cover the game down to the minutae and minor storylines. This week the focus will not just be on the USC-OSU matchup, but one sub-plot we should follow based on scheduling strategy. Wisconsin and Ohio State both have high expectations and both have scheduled a tough roadtrip out west in week 3 (Fresno State and USC, respectively). What's interesting is how the four teams involved scheduled around the big games.
Ohio State and Wisconsin each took on two low-level games the first two weeks of the season. USC and Fresno State traveled to the east side of the country in the opening weekend and tried BCS conference competition before having a bye week leading into the big game. There are proponents of both scheduling strategies, and it will be interesting to see how these evenly-matched teams on paper deal with these similar circumstances. While OSU and UW struggled mightily in Week 2 games against MAC teams, perhaps that was a part of the look-forward factor. Football coaches say the most growth and learning happens between games 1 and 2, mostly because the team finally has game tape/experience from an under-fire situation. So is it better to have a two week stretch before a big game or two easy games to get the offense and defense rolling? We'll see this week. This could affect how your favorite team schedules in the future.
That being said, it is time to turn to the best games from a solid week of college football. To be honest, this week's fourth best game (resurgent UCLA going to BCS-buster BYU) would've been the game of the week last week. Having only time for three, the third game of the week is Friday night's clash between Kansas and South Florida. This is a game that would have been appreciated last season when both were surprise BCS contenders, but the 2008 version will be between two ranked teams looking to make a statement. Kansas QB Todd Reesing came of age last season and will be the star to watch on the road in Tampa. The Bulls will hope to contain the KU offense with a strong defense and an ace QB of their own in Matt Grothe. While the Jayhawks have feasted on lesser competition in the first two weeks, the Bulls escaped an underrated UCF team on the road in overtime last Saturday. In a game where the teams are pretty evenly matched, I'll take the battle tested unit. USF wins by 10.
While the appetizer is Friday night and the entree is the 8 PM feature detailed below, a lovely dessert at 10:30 PM Saturday is worth skipping ahead to, that being Wisconsin at Fresno State. Fresno State continues to schedule the best teams possible, and perhaps this year Pat Hill's team will take back the conference from the recent Boise domination. Fresno State crushed a solid Rutgers team two weeks ago with a stifling defense and experienced leaders on the offense in QB Tom Brandstater and RB Ryan Matthews. On the other side, the Badgers have a formidable weapon in RB P.J. Hill. With a senior quarterback Allan Evridge holding the reins, teams have not been able to load up and stop Wisconsin by stuffing the Hill attack. Outside of a slow start against Marshall, Wisconsin has shown no weaknesses. Still, roadtrips to the west coast are never easy for Big Ten teams and Fresno State is yet another potential BCS buster. This game is the season for Fresno State until Boise State comes to town, while the Badgers could drop this one and still be successful. I'm calling for a minor upset, Fresno State by 3.
Now for the entree, and wow is it beefy. The two most dominant teams in the decade finally begin a two-year series of games to determine who is the frontrunner in the 2008 BCS chase and who is the better team in this decade. The storylines are really too numerous to cover in one paragraph, but let's try. Pete Carroll and Jim Tressel have recruited better than everyone else in the country, but each has a distinct play-calling style. Tressel will bring a conservative package to USC while Carroll will call some crazy plays. Ohio State has all the weapons assuming RB Chris Wells is back and healthy, as USC will struggle to switch between defending Wells power runs, Todd Boeckman long-ball pocket passing, and Terrelle Pryor dual-threat capabilities. Remember that Ohio State has been a national power only when it has these kinds of dual threats (Craig Krenzel, Troy Smith, etc.). Trojan QB Mark Sanchez appears to have recovered from a leg injury in the pre-season, but he is prone to occassional lapses and mistakes. Look for running backs C.J. Gable and Joe McKnight to really test the OSU line and linebackers, opening holes for Sanchez throws. Look for a low-scoring affair, as these are the best two defenses in college football hands down. Ohio State thrives in defensive slugfests while USC does not, yet the Buckeyes always seem to struggle in September road games out west. Despite bringing an A effort (as opposed to a D- against Ohio University), OSU falls to the Trojans in this one by 7, in overtime.
2008 GOTW Record: 4-2
Last Week: 3-0
Fitz Top 10 - Week 2
1. USC (1-0)
2. Georgia (2-0)
3. Florida (2-0)
4. Missouri (2-0)
5. Ohio State (2-0)
6. Oklahoma (2-0)
7. Wisconsin (2-0)
8. Auburn (2-0)
9. LSU (1-0)
10. Texas Tech (2-0)
Just Missed: East Carolina, Texas, Arizona State, BYU, Penn State
Matt really hit it on the head yesterday, college football fans deserve this kind of week after the lackluster Week 2. While the Fab 15 features four Big XII and four SEC teams in the Top 10, the real frontrunner for a championship will be determined by the lone Pac-10 and lone Big Ten team on Saturday night. Let's hope the game lives up to the endless hype certain sports websites will give us this week. Have a great week and my new daughter Paige says hello to the world! See you next week.
Before hopping into those games coming up, there were a few notable things in the mostly boring slate of games. First and foremost was the debacle in Seattle as BYU escaped Washington with a 28-27 win after Washington QB Jake Locker was flagged for excessive celebration on the last drive of the game, leading to a missed PAT and a one point loss. The controversy is whether the flag should have been dropped at all. While it is true Jake Locker tossed the ball into the air after the late touchdown, there's something to be said for the emotion of the moment. While spiking the ball after going ahead 28-0 in the second quarter should be penalized as well as the Florida-Georgia endzone celebratory antics, the letter of the law should bend to the spirit of the situation. It's no secret that basketball officials will swallow the whistle in the last minute of a game and let the players make plays. While fans scream for consistency in rule enforcement, these sports situations are not life and death.
To be fair, officials could call holding, pass interference, and blocks in the back on pretty much every play if we follow the letter of the law. The key is to not break the rules of be so unsportsmanlike to disrupt the fair play. Having watched replays of Locker's toss, this was a perfect situation for the referees to swallow the whistle and let the players have a little fun. There was no disruption of the special teams coming on the field or undue delay, and the emotion for Washington finally competing for a big win after having so much promise the past two years had to be the cause of the small celebration. As a lawyer in real life, I can tell you the world is a lot better off enforcing rules and regulations by their spirit and not always by the letter because rulemakers or legislators have a tougher job than most think. Writing rules of conduct is very difficult, and most try to clear up gray areas in too few words. Hence, what the NCAA rules say does not matter. What should have been called is what matters.
Before we drag this column down any farther, step back and realize what happened. Washington was faced with a bad call and some adversity, but they were still in control of a very make-able PAT to tie. Washington simply did not recover from the poor call, and like Oklahoma against Oregon in 2006, needs to realize they lost because they missed the extra point and did not handle their business. It was probably better for the college football universe that BYU remains undefeated yet tested. Perhaps this will spark the Cougars to go undefeated into a battle with Utah at season's end. Alongside East Carolina, these two teams could make a run to maybe steal two of the BCS at large berths, a scenario most deem impossible.
Speaking of the Pirates, who knew that ECU could actually turn years of tough experience and rough non-conference scheduling into these results? Even in East Carolina's heyday back in the late 1990's, ECU never knocked off two straight opponents of the caliber of these 2008 opponents. Virginia Tech was overrated, but beating any Beamer team that gets a punt block is pretty much unheard of. To follow that up by shutting down one of the most prolific offenses in I-A football was BCS-busting at its best. Now the purple Pirates really have no ranked teams standing in their way, and it will be interesting to see how this team keeps enthusiasm up during C-USA play. Still, it is hard to imagine this team's defense giving up more than 21 in any game this year. A pretty easy task it seems for the ECU offense to carry the team to BCS glory.
Kudos to the national polls and my fellow writers on giving credit where credit is due. Sometimes it is hard to move teams around in the rankings, but preseason rankings are really meaningless. Do I still think Georgia and Ohio State have more talent than USC? Yes. Based on performances thus far, USC is a clear number 1 above all others. Despite dropping the Buckeyes this week, a win on the road at USC would almost guarantee the top spot in the polls next week. It appears people are finally catching on the farce of maintaining pre-season rankings. Furthermore, seeing East Carolina near the Top 10 is very appropriate considering there's not another team in America with two wins over ranked opponents so far this season. Until shown otherwise, ECU is in the Top 15 for my ballot.
Usually when the big game of the season comes along, the habit has been for this column to cover the game down to the minutae and minor storylines. This week the focus will not just be on the USC-OSU matchup, but one sub-plot we should follow based on scheduling strategy. Wisconsin and Ohio State both have high expectations and both have scheduled a tough roadtrip out west in week 3 (Fresno State and USC, respectively). What's interesting is how the four teams involved scheduled around the big games.
Ohio State and Wisconsin each took on two low-level games the first two weeks of the season. USC and Fresno State traveled to the east side of the country in the opening weekend and tried BCS conference competition before having a bye week leading into the big game. There are proponents of both scheduling strategies, and it will be interesting to see how these evenly-matched teams on paper deal with these similar circumstances. While OSU and UW struggled mightily in Week 2 games against MAC teams, perhaps that was a part of the look-forward factor. Football coaches say the most growth and learning happens between games 1 and 2, mostly because the team finally has game tape/experience from an under-fire situation. So is it better to have a two week stretch before a big game or two easy games to get the offense and defense rolling? We'll see this week. This could affect how your favorite team schedules in the future.
That being said, it is time to turn to the best games from a solid week of college football. To be honest, this week's fourth best game (resurgent UCLA going to BCS-buster BYU) would've been the game of the week last week. Having only time for three, the third game of the week is Friday night's clash between Kansas and South Florida. This is a game that would have been appreciated last season when both were surprise BCS contenders, but the 2008 version will be between two ranked teams looking to make a statement. Kansas QB Todd Reesing came of age last season and will be the star to watch on the road in Tampa. The Bulls will hope to contain the KU offense with a strong defense and an ace QB of their own in Matt Grothe. While the Jayhawks have feasted on lesser competition in the first two weeks, the Bulls escaped an underrated UCF team on the road in overtime last Saturday. In a game where the teams are pretty evenly matched, I'll take the battle tested unit. USF wins by 10.
While the appetizer is Friday night and the entree is the 8 PM feature detailed below, a lovely dessert at 10:30 PM Saturday is worth skipping ahead to, that being Wisconsin at Fresno State. Fresno State continues to schedule the best teams possible, and perhaps this year Pat Hill's team will take back the conference from the recent Boise domination. Fresno State crushed a solid Rutgers team two weeks ago with a stifling defense and experienced leaders on the offense in QB Tom Brandstater and RB Ryan Matthews. On the other side, the Badgers have a formidable weapon in RB P.J. Hill. With a senior quarterback Allan Evridge holding the reins, teams have not been able to load up and stop Wisconsin by stuffing the Hill attack. Outside of a slow start against Marshall, Wisconsin has shown no weaknesses. Still, roadtrips to the west coast are never easy for Big Ten teams and Fresno State is yet another potential BCS buster. This game is the season for Fresno State until Boise State comes to town, while the Badgers could drop this one and still be successful. I'm calling for a minor upset, Fresno State by 3.
Now for the entree, and wow is it beefy. The two most dominant teams in the decade finally begin a two-year series of games to determine who is the frontrunner in the 2008 BCS chase and who is the better team in this decade. The storylines are really too numerous to cover in one paragraph, but let's try. Pete Carroll and Jim Tressel have recruited better than everyone else in the country, but each has a distinct play-calling style. Tressel will bring a conservative package to USC while Carroll will call some crazy plays. Ohio State has all the weapons assuming RB Chris Wells is back and healthy, as USC will struggle to switch between defending Wells power runs, Todd Boeckman long-ball pocket passing, and Terrelle Pryor dual-threat capabilities. Remember that Ohio State has been a national power only when it has these kinds of dual threats (Craig Krenzel, Troy Smith, etc.). Trojan QB Mark Sanchez appears to have recovered from a leg injury in the pre-season, but he is prone to occassional lapses and mistakes. Look for running backs C.J. Gable and Joe McKnight to really test the OSU line and linebackers, opening holes for Sanchez throws. Look for a low-scoring affair, as these are the best two defenses in college football hands down. Ohio State thrives in defensive slugfests while USC does not, yet the Buckeyes always seem to struggle in September road games out west. Despite bringing an A effort (as opposed to a D- against Ohio University), OSU falls to the Trojans in this one by 7, in overtime.
2008 GOTW Record: 4-2
Last Week: 3-0
Fitz Top 10 - Week 2
1. USC (1-0)
2. Georgia (2-0)
3. Florida (2-0)
4. Missouri (2-0)
5. Ohio State (2-0)
6. Oklahoma (2-0)
7. Wisconsin (2-0)
8. Auburn (2-0)
9. LSU (1-0)
10. Texas Tech (2-0)
Just Missed: East Carolina, Texas, Arizona State, BYU, Penn State
Matt really hit it on the head yesterday, college football fans deserve this kind of week after the lackluster Week 2. While the Fab 15 features four Big XII and four SEC teams in the Top 10, the real frontrunner for a championship will be determined by the lone Pac-10 and lone Big Ten team on Saturday night. Let's hope the game lives up to the endless hype certain sports websites will give us this week. Have a great week and my new daughter Paige says hello to the world! See you next week.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Feeling "ACC"rimonious - the ACC Curse Continues
The first week of the college football season is now in the books, and the country has turned its attention away from the Olympics and the presidential race for now. While inter-sectional battles are more typical the next two or three weeks, the first weekend gave us a taste of the season to come. From a rough debut in Ann Arbor to potential team-wrecking injuries in Athens and Columbus, there were plenty of storylines to follow. What absolutely stood out though was the absolute failure of the Atlantic Coast Conference. Could this season be rock-bottom for the ACC? Week 1 certainly looks that way.
While Big Ten bashing is currently in style, the simple fact is the Midwestern's best are 8-9 in 10 years of the BCS, grabbing a stunning 7 at-large berths in 10 seasons. The ACC and Big East have really been the weak links, as each conference has never offered more than the automatic berth for their champion. The ACC was known as Florida State et al. for the entire 1990's, but stealing three of the best teams from the Big East (including Miami, who was 3-1 in BCS games) did nothing to improve the conference. Miami fell apart, and no other program has filled the gap. Even with the replacement universities, the Big East is 6-4 in BCS play while the ACC is 1-9. The calls for the Big Ten and Big East to lose their automatic berths are ridiculous when looking at the raw numbers.
The ACC desperately needs an identity, as Wake Forest cannot carry the league banner by itself. With FSU and Miami still floundering, this was a year where Virginia Tech could actually help the ACC. Furthermore, Clemson had the most talent it had ever had. Week 1 was a chance to really show the world that the ACC was back, with both of their powerhouse teams facing tough tests away from home to start the season. Of course, this leads to...disaster!
The day started off innocuously enough, with Virginia Tech outplaying C-USA favorite East Carolina on the road for the first three quarters. Then Beamerball backfired in the worst way with the Hokies up 22-20 with two minutes to go in the game, as the Pirate blocked a punt and returned it for the game winning touchdown. The late afternoon would not bring any better news, as Virginia hosted a highly ranked USC team. Virginia was not expected to win, but the Cavaliers were at least supposed to challenge the Trojans. With QB Mark Sanchez on one good leg, Virginia proceeded to not pressure the weak point in the Trojan offense. USC rolled to a 52-7 win. These were painful, but the crown jewel could still be had in Atlanta.
Saturday Night Football had a showcase between a SEC middle-of-the-road rebuilding Alabama team and the most-talented team in the ACC, Clemson. This used to be exactly the type of game Clemson chokes in, but for some reason everybody believed the top 10 ranking could inspire this unit to win this game. Outside of a dominating opening drive in the third quarter to cut Alabama's lead, the Tigers were lifeless on offense. The Crimson Tide rolled through the Tigers 34-10, once again establishing Clemson's lack of clutch performance and the SEC's difficulty. On the whole, the only respectable win the ACC received was by the other ranked team Wake Forest at Baylor. Still, Baylor might be the worst team in a BCS conference. There was nothing to be proud of, except maybe a Duke winning record for the first time in ages.
One week certainly cannot ruin a whole season for an entire conference, but things are mighty grim in ACC country. Any hopes of a legitimate national championship contender are likely out the window, and out-of-conference losses do not help the chances for the first at large BCS berth. Still, one would have to question if the ACC even wants a second chance to fail on the main stage in 2008. Things may get worse before they get better, as the only chances for national redemption the next two weeks are UNC going to Rutgers (who already lost week 1) and Miami hoping to stay in the same league as Florida. Without a big win in either of these games, it will be very hard to take any champion of this conference seriously in 2008. One wonders if the Big East trio now wishes they could go back.
One other major theme of week 1 was the statements made by non-BCS conference teams. This may be the first time there are two serious non-BCS contenders in the mix for the 4 at large berths. Utah played miserably and yet still escaped the Big House with a victory thanks to a vanilla Wolverine offense and inconsistent quarterback play. BYU tampled all over FCS national-title contender Northern Iowa. The aforementioned East Carolina Pirates turned the tables on the Hokies by blocking a punt, and could be a BCS contender if they get past WVU next week at home. Even Bowling Green of the MAC may get into the mix after crushing Big East favorite Pittsburgh. To top it all off, Fresno State may continue the Boise State WAC success after dismantling Rutgers on the road on Labor Day. Look for these teams to stay in the discussion as long as they keep winning.
With all of that covered, we turn our attention to week two. The first game of the week is Miami at Florida. Both these teams hold annual rivalries with Florida State, but the Hurricanes and Gators only play occasionally. Florida last won in this series in 1985, but Miami's program is in the middle of rebuilding under Randy Shannon. The Hurricanes are hurting due to some season-long suspensions, but fans believe the program is headed in the right direction again. The last big win for the Hurricanes came in the 2004 Peach Bowl over the Gators, and this would be a colossal upset considering how Florida is supposed to waltz undefeated into the showdown with Georgia. The key matchup will be Tim Tebow against the Miami linebackers. The linebackers are young but have enough talent to make Tebow work for his yards. Expect a close game by Swamp standards, as Florida wins by 17.
The second game of the week is Cincinnati at Oklahoma. Oklahoma is the trendy pick outside the top 4 to make the BCS Championship, but the Sooners cannot overlook this game. The Bearcats have been Big East contenders recently, and new quarterback Dustin Grutza stepped in last week and did not miss a beat. The Sooners will counter with DeMarco Murray, who ran for 124 yards and two touchdowns in the opening game against Chatanooga. The key to this game will be whether the strong Cincinnati secondary can force Sam Bradford into enough mistakes to make the Sooners one-dimensional. If that happens, watch for an upset from the underrated Bearcats. The pick: Oklahoma squeaks by, winning by 7.
The best game of the week will be Big East favorite West Virginia visiting BCS darkhorse East Carolina. The Pirates escaped their home opener against Virginia Tech and now look to slay a second straight BCS-caliber opponent. West Virginia was outgained by lowly Villanova but still won by four touchdowns because Pat White has become even better in his dual-threat role. The West Virginia defense needs to play much better this week, as a shootout may actually favor the Pirates on their home turf. Both coaches Bill Stewart and Skip Holtz have a real chance to make a national-level statement with a win in this game, so look for a lot of craziness in this one. I'm calling for a shocker, East Carolina by 4.
2008 GOTW Record: 1-2
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 - Week 1
1. USC (1-0)
2. Ohio State (1-0)
3. Georgia (1-0)
4. Florida (1-0)
5. Missouri (1-0)
6. West Virginia (1-0)
7. Oklahoma (1-0)
8. Auburn (1-0)
9. Wisconsin (1-0)
10. LSU (1-0)
Just Missed: Texas Tech, BYU, Texas, Tennessee, Arizona State
What a great whirlwind of week 1 Labor Day weekend. As out-of-conference play continues, will the SEC continue to dominate? Will the BCS crashers continue their runs to fame and fortune? Will the ACC finally turn things around? Come back next week to see what other questions arise as the season hits full stride. See you next week!
While Big Ten bashing is currently in style, the simple fact is the Midwestern's best are 8-9 in 10 years of the BCS, grabbing a stunning 7 at-large berths in 10 seasons. The ACC and Big East have really been the weak links, as each conference has never offered more than the automatic berth for their champion. The ACC was known as Florida State et al. for the entire 1990's, but stealing three of the best teams from the Big East (including Miami, who was 3-1 in BCS games) did nothing to improve the conference. Miami fell apart, and no other program has filled the gap. Even with the replacement universities, the Big East is 6-4 in BCS play while the ACC is 1-9. The calls for the Big Ten and Big East to lose their automatic berths are ridiculous when looking at the raw numbers.
The ACC desperately needs an identity, as Wake Forest cannot carry the league banner by itself. With FSU and Miami still floundering, this was a year where Virginia Tech could actually help the ACC. Furthermore, Clemson had the most talent it had ever had. Week 1 was a chance to really show the world that the ACC was back, with both of their powerhouse teams facing tough tests away from home to start the season. Of course, this leads to...disaster!
The day started off innocuously enough, with Virginia Tech outplaying C-USA favorite East Carolina on the road for the first three quarters. Then Beamerball backfired in the worst way with the Hokies up 22-20 with two minutes to go in the game, as the Pirate blocked a punt and returned it for the game winning touchdown. The late afternoon would not bring any better news, as Virginia hosted a highly ranked USC team. Virginia was not expected to win, but the Cavaliers were at least supposed to challenge the Trojans. With QB Mark Sanchez on one good leg, Virginia proceeded to not pressure the weak point in the Trojan offense. USC rolled to a 52-7 win. These were painful, but the crown jewel could still be had in Atlanta.
Saturday Night Football had a showcase between a SEC middle-of-the-road rebuilding Alabama team and the most-talented team in the ACC, Clemson. This used to be exactly the type of game Clemson chokes in, but for some reason everybody believed the top 10 ranking could inspire this unit to win this game. Outside of a dominating opening drive in the third quarter to cut Alabama's lead, the Tigers were lifeless on offense. The Crimson Tide rolled through the Tigers 34-10, once again establishing Clemson's lack of clutch performance and the SEC's difficulty. On the whole, the only respectable win the ACC received was by the other ranked team Wake Forest at Baylor. Still, Baylor might be the worst team in a BCS conference. There was nothing to be proud of, except maybe a Duke winning record for the first time in ages.
One week certainly cannot ruin a whole season for an entire conference, but things are mighty grim in ACC country. Any hopes of a legitimate national championship contender are likely out the window, and out-of-conference losses do not help the chances for the first at large BCS berth. Still, one would have to question if the ACC even wants a second chance to fail on the main stage in 2008. Things may get worse before they get better, as the only chances for national redemption the next two weeks are UNC going to Rutgers (who already lost week 1) and Miami hoping to stay in the same league as Florida. Without a big win in either of these games, it will be very hard to take any champion of this conference seriously in 2008. One wonders if the Big East trio now wishes they could go back.
One other major theme of week 1 was the statements made by non-BCS conference teams. This may be the first time there are two serious non-BCS contenders in the mix for the 4 at large berths. Utah played miserably and yet still escaped the Big House with a victory thanks to a vanilla Wolverine offense and inconsistent quarterback play. BYU tampled all over FCS national-title contender Northern Iowa. The aforementioned East Carolina Pirates turned the tables on the Hokies by blocking a punt, and could be a BCS contender if they get past WVU next week at home. Even Bowling Green of the MAC may get into the mix after crushing Big East favorite Pittsburgh. To top it all off, Fresno State may continue the Boise State WAC success after dismantling Rutgers on the road on Labor Day. Look for these teams to stay in the discussion as long as they keep winning.
With all of that covered, we turn our attention to week two. The first game of the week is Miami at Florida. Both these teams hold annual rivalries with Florida State, but the Hurricanes and Gators only play occasionally. Florida last won in this series in 1985, but Miami's program is in the middle of rebuilding under Randy Shannon. The Hurricanes are hurting due to some season-long suspensions, but fans believe the program is headed in the right direction again. The last big win for the Hurricanes came in the 2004 Peach Bowl over the Gators, and this would be a colossal upset considering how Florida is supposed to waltz undefeated into the showdown with Georgia. The key matchup will be Tim Tebow against the Miami linebackers. The linebackers are young but have enough talent to make Tebow work for his yards. Expect a close game by Swamp standards, as Florida wins by 17.
The second game of the week is Cincinnati at Oklahoma. Oklahoma is the trendy pick outside the top 4 to make the BCS Championship, but the Sooners cannot overlook this game. The Bearcats have been Big East contenders recently, and new quarterback Dustin Grutza stepped in last week and did not miss a beat. The Sooners will counter with DeMarco Murray, who ran for 124 yards and two touchdowns in the opening game against Chatanooga. The key to this game will be whether the strong Cincinnati secondary can force Sam Bradford into enough mistakes to make the Sooners one-dimensional. If that happens, watch for an upset from the underrated Bearcats. The pick: Oklahoma squeaks by, winning by 7.
The best game of the week will be Big East favorite West Virginia visiting BCS darkhorse East Carolina. The Pirates escaped their home opener against Virginia Tech and now look to slay a second straight BCS-caliber opponent. West Virginia was outgained by lowly Villanova but still won by four touchdowns because Pat White has become even better in his dual-threat role. The West Virginia defense needs to play much better this week, as a shootout may actually favor the Pirates on their home turf. Both coaches Bill Stewart and Skip Holtz have a real chance to make a national-level statement with a win in this game, so look for a lot of craziness in this one. I'm calling for a shocker, East Carolina by 4.
2008 GOTW Record: 1-2
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 - Week 1
1. USC (1-0)
2. Ohio State (1-0)
3. Georgia (1-0)
4. Florida (1-0)
5. Missouri (1-0)
6. West Virginia (1-0)
7. Oklahoma (1-0)
8. Auburn (1-0)
9. Wisconsin (1-0)
10. LSU (1-0)
Just Missed: Texas Tech, BYU, Texas, Tennessee, Arizona State
What a great whirlwind of week 1 Labor Day weekend. As out-of-conference play continues, will the SEC continue to dominate? Will the BCS crashers continue their runs to fame and fortune? Will the ACC finally turn things around? Come back next week to see what other questions arise as the season hits full stride. See you next week!
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