Championship Week Preview

After watching a few great games such as Notre Dame beating Stanford and Connecticut topping South Florida last weekend, I am finally prepared to preview and watch some of the most important games of the season. This week will determine conference champions in three major and a couple mid-major conferences, and don't forget about a couple of good battles in the Big East and the Pac-10. Final exams are here before bowl season, so let's jump into the games I am looking forward to for this weekend.

West Virginia at South Florida

I start with the least important game I am previewing, as South Florida's loss last week locked up the BCS berth and outright BCS title for the Mountaineers. West Virginia has been rolling through the Big East since winning over Louisville in a huge comeback and losing to Virginia Tech out-of-conference, while USF has struggled every week, culminating in a loss to banged-up Connecticut on Saturday. Both teams have good rushing offenses, so I suspect this game to be a grinding, low-scoring affair. Expect WVU to run roughshod over the weak USF defensive front, leading them to a big victory. Slaton from WVU only needs 162 yards to reach 1000 on the season, a remarkable achievement for this offense. The key to this game for the Bulls is stopping White, the Mountaineer double threat QB. If they can contain White and Slaton and force White to throw, the Bulls could be in this game. I expect no letdown for the Mountaineers as they prepare for the probable Sugar Bowl appearance.

MAC Championship: Akron v. Northern Illinois

On Thursday night the MAC title will finally be decided between these unexpected division champions. Toledo's defeat of Bowling Green coupled with Akron and Northern Illinois wins last week set this game up instead of the preseason expectation of Bowling Green or Miami against the Rockets. Northern Illinois has had the best offense in the conference the past few weeks, and their defense has been strong as well. Akron may not play in a bowl if they lose this game, as a 6-6 record may be overlooked for Bowling Green and Toledo. The Zips have tons to play for and I think they will play a good game, but the fact that Akron cannot seem to run the ball (99th ranked nationally) will hurt them against the Huskies. Northern Illinois wins this one in a blowout and grabs another game in Detroit in December at the Motor City Bowl.

ACC Championship: Florida State v. Virginia Tech

Florida State comes into this game limping with a three game losing streak for the first time since the mid-80's. Virginia Tech has played very well since their loss to Miami, and they have certainly earned the division title with the Hurricanes slipping up to FSU and Georgia Tech. No team has looked as impressive as the Hokies this season (except for that nasty defeat by Miami at home) in this conference, and Florida State will be hard pressed to turn the ship around here. The special teams will be crucial, as Virginia Tech plays the field position and turnover battle to many victories. Florida State has a great passing game, while Virginia Tech has a great rushing attack. Assuming Marcus Vick shows up and plays well, the Hokies will control the clock and wear down the Seminole defense with long drives all day. Florida State could win this game if they play mistake-free (unlikely given their 18 interceptions thrown already this season), but I expect the Hokies to roll in this one, putting them in the Orange Bowl.

SEC Championship: Georgia v. LSU

Statistically, these teams mirror each other in almost every category. Georgia may have slipped up against Florida and Auburn, but those losses were by a combined five points. LSU would be fighting for a national championship had it not been for a fourth quarter collapse against Tennessee with the team just recovering at the beginning of the season from Hurricane Katrina and its after-effects. They could still make the Rose Bowl with a big win here and a Texas or USC loss this week (they would have to win convincingly to jump Penn State in the BCS standings), but the Sugar Bowl is motivation enough for these teams as the loser probably drops to the Cotton Bowl or Outback Bowl, and maybe even the Peach Bowl in Georgia's case. I think LSU will finish up the season with a close win here, perhaps overtime. This is the best game of the week, so don't miss out on the last SEC game of the season.

Game of the Week Final Record: 25-14 (2-1 last week)
We will see if I can beat this 64% winning percentage in the bowl season.

BCS Bowl Projections - Final

ROSE: USC v. Texas
ORANGE: Virginia Tech v. Penn State
FIESTA: Notre Dame v. Ohio State
SUGAR: LSU v. West Virginia

Fitzy's Top 10 - Week 14
1. Texas (11-0)
2. USC (11-0)
3. Penn State (10-1)
4. LSU (10-1)
5. Virginia Tech (10-1)
6. Ohio State (9-2)
7. Notre Dame (9-2)
8. Auburn (9-2)
9. Oregon (10-1)
10. UCLA (10-1)

Wrapping Up The Loose Ends

Thanksgiving weekend is upon us, and college football will share the spotlight all week with pro football showdowns. Rivalry week brought us many memorable moments, not the least of which being Joe Paterno capping off his Big Ten title with a win over Michigan State. Nittany Lion fans can start asking all the what if questions now as they were literally one second in Ann Arbor from an undefeated season. They did share the conference title with Ohio State, as the Buckeyes showed a lot of heart in coming back from a nine-point deficit in Michigan with seven minutes remaining. If it had not been for all the uncharacteristic Buckeye mistakes (which lost them games against national powers Texas and Penn State earlier this year), OSU would have made Michigan look bad. As it ended up, we had a classic closing weekend of Big Ten football.

Of course I do not want to lose sight of another couple games which made the weekend enjoyable. Reggie Bush forced USC past Fresno State in an exciting overnight shootout, while Auburn trampled all over Alabama. Georgia Tech ended any hope for Miami making the title game and probably knocked them out of the ACC title race as well. The Gator Bowl will be little consolation to the Hurricanes this season. One more rivalry game of note had Oregon stomping all over Oregon State, as the Ducks make one last claim at the final at-large BCS berth. The statements have been made, and the debate will rage on for a couple more weeks as college football wraps up the loose ends of this exciting season. Of course, there is still some football to preview for this weekend, so let's get into it now.

My first game of the week is Tuesday night's MAC battle between Toledo and Bowling Green. The crazy MAC race cleared up with four critical games last week, and this game is crucial to both team's hopes to make the MAC title game. Bowling Green would like nothing better than clinching a title game appearance against their hated rivals from half an hour up Interstate 75, while knocking Toledo out of the MAC race and probably out of a bowl game as well. Toledo had trouble defending Northern Illinois's rushing attack last weekend, and I think BGSU will run all over Toledo again this week. If Bowling Green gets an early lead, the Rockets will probably collapse, ending a disappointing November for Toledo. Falcons wins by 10 in this one.

A couple of southern ACC-SEC state bragging rights rivalries comprise the other two games of the week, the first being Georgia at Georgia Tech. All of a sudden after a trip to Miami, Georgia Tech ends Miami's ACC hopes and makes this game all the more interesting. This is just a tune-up for the SEC title game for Georgia, and the Bulldogs must not let the Yellow Jackets capitalize on mistakes like they did against Miami. Georgia is still recovering from their loss to Auburn, and I suspect they get back on top of things with a seven point win against their state rivals.

In some seasons, Florida and Florida State are playing for national title hopes at this point in the year. This year the Gators and the Seminoles bring identical records of 7-3 into this season-ending showdown, practically unacceptable for these two schools. Florida State has backed into the ACC title game, while Florida is also reeling from a loss to their old coach at South Carolina, which cost them the SEC title game. When faced with playing for just pride, Florida State has not come out swinging this season. The Swamp is no place to start slow, and I expect FSU to continue sliding in this one. Florida takes this battle by one, as I see it is too close to call!

Game of the Week Record to Date: 23-13 (3-0 last week)

Conference Race Breakdowns

ACC
Florida State has locked up the Atlantic and will probably now play Virginia Tech for the ACC title. If VT defeats North Carolina this week, the Hokies will win their division. If UNC wins this game and Miami defeats Virginia, then Miami will reclaim the division and play FSU.

Big XII
Texas has won the South and will play Colorado if the Buffaloes defeat Nebraska this weekend. If Colorado slips up, then Iowa State will go to play Texas assuming ISU wins against Kansas.

Big East
West Virginia's annual Backyard Brawl with Pittsburgh usually has title implications, but this year the game has no bearing at all on the conference race. Even if WVU loses to Pittsburgh, they can clinch the BCS berth with a win over South Florida next weekend. We must wait until next weekend to determine this title.

Big Ten
Conference play is over, and Penn State wins the BCS berth while sharing the title with Ohio State.

C-USA
UTEP seemed to have the division title wrapped up, but an upset loss at home against UAB puts them one loss away from losing the title. Should they lose at SMU this weekend, then Tulsa will play against Central Florida in the C-USA title game.

MAC
Both divisions are still up for grabs, but the race is clear now. Bowling Green can win the East with a win over Toledo or an Akron loss against Kent State. If Akron and Toledo win, then Akron goes to the MAC title game. In the Western division, Northern Illinois can win against Western Michigan to get into the title game. If Northern Illinois loses, then Toledo can get into the title game with a win over BGSU. If both lose, then Western Michigan will make the MAC title game.

MWC
TCU has won the conference by three games with their undefeated 8-0 conference record.

Pac-10
USC and UCLA will play for the conference title next weekend (which means we have the equivalent of seven conference title games next weekend), and they have an extra week to prepare for this battle with no conference games this weekend.

SEC
Georgia beat Kentucky this past weekend to clinch the East. LSU must defeat Arkansas at home this week to lock up a West title, as Auburn wins the West if LSU loses.

Sun Belt
Louisiana-Monroe can lock up the conference crown with a win against Louisiana-Lafayette this weekend. If Lafayette wins, then Arkansas State can win the conference title with a win at North Texas. If Lafayette and North Texas win, then Lafayette wins the conference title.

WAC
Fresno State will win the conference with a win against Nevada this weekend. If Nevada knocks off the Bulldogs, then a three-way split for the title is possible depending on how Fresno State and Boise State finish.

BCS Bowl Projections

Rose: USC v. Texas
Orange: Virginia Tech v. Penn State
Fiesta: Notre Dame v. Ohio State
Sugar: LSU v. West Virginia

The only change this week was replacing Miami with Virginia Tech as ACC champion. Miami and Alabama's losses have removed them from all BCS possibilities, leaving a race for the last at-large between Ohio State, Oregon, and Auburn, who have all finished their seasons. Although Oregon only lost to USC, and Auburn has been playing like a top-five team the past few weeks, I still think Ohio State is a more appealing matchup for Notre Dame, and the Buckeyes have good history with Tempe, winning two of the last three Fiesta Bowls. Let the debate begin this week and conclude in two weeks when the bowl matchups are set, but I highly doubt anybody will know for sure which of these three will take the berth. The only thing which could ruin this scenario is a loss by Texas or USC in their last games, thereby knocking out these three for the last at-large.

Fitzy's Top 10 - Week 13

1. Texas (10-0)
2. USC (11-0)
3. Penn State (10-1)
4. LSU (9-1)
5. Virginia Tech (10-1)
6. Ohio State (9-2)
7. Notre Dame (8-2)
8. Oregon (10-1)
9. Auburn (9-2)
10. UCLA (9-1)
Dropped Out: #3 Miami (8-2), #9 Alabama (9-2)

Rivalry Week - More Than Pride

This past week of college football was a great one as all the top SEC games turned into real classics, and the top six teams in that league are now pretty indistinguishable. This week brings us more rivalries than any other week of the season, but there is more riding on some of these games than usual. National title hopes may be lost, but conference races will conclude in the Pac-10 and Big Ten this week with a full slate of rivalries (except for the critical UCLA v. USC battle in December). There's lots to cover this week as I take on each conference and cover the race for its title, as well as my normal material, so let's jump in!

My first game of the week is Fresno State at USC. The Trojans have everything to lose, and the Bulldogs fear nothing and nobody. If Fresno State can keep it close like Notre Dame did, don't be surprised if there is a huge upset. USC has too many weapons however, and I do not expect the Bulldog defense to stop them. USC rolls to a 14 point win which is closer than it looks but good enough to keep USC at the top going into the UCLA game.

The Iron Bowl is certainly one of the best five rivalries in college football. This year Auburn and Alabama have lost to LSU, and this game is an elimination game in the conference race. Even the winner of this game still needs an unlikely LSU slip-up to make the SEC title game, but Alabama could be playing for the BCS after dropping from the national title picture last weekend. Auburn has shown a lot of heart in losses to LSU in overtime and last week against Georgia, so I would expect no different at home against their hated Crimson Tide rival. I'll take Auburn by 3 in OT!

Finally, we have one of the best rivalries in college football and perhaps all of sports: Ohio State at Michigan. Lloyd Carr has done well against the Buckeyes, but not in the past four years as Jim Tressel holds a 3-1 lead since 2001. Both teams looked very shaky at 3-3 and 3-2 early on, but both have won every game since then in pretty convincing fashion. Of course the Buckeyes are probably playing for a BCS at-large berth, but the team with more to lose has traditionally lost in this series. For the first time in recent memory, the Buckeyes come into Ann Arbor and look like they should roll over their rivals. This game will reveal the true character of both of these teams, and I expect Ohio State's offense to carry the team in an unexpected twist of fate. I'll take OSU by 17 in the game of the week.

Top 3 Games of the Week Record to Date: 20-13 (2-1 last week)

Conference Race Breakdown

ACC
Florida State has wrapped up the Atlantic division and has the week off to prepare for the Gators and their eventual ACC title game. The Coastal division is still up for grabs between Miami, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Virginia. Virginia grabbed bowl eligibility against Georgia Tech last week, but the waters only get rougher as they take on Virginia Tech this week and Miami next week. Miami hosts Georgia Tech this week and could lock up the division with a win and a Virginia Tech loss. Virginia Tech needs Miami to lose this weekend or next weekend against North Carolina while winning out to win the division. It looks like Miami vs. Florida State for the title, but the games remaining will be tough.

Big XII
Only seven games remain over the next two weeks, and this conference is much like the ACC. In this case, the South division title has already been wrapped up by Texas, while Oklahoma and Texas Tech play for second place in the South this weekend. Missouri and Iowa State are a game behind Colorado in the North, and each team has one more game to play. Iowa State has the overall record tiebreaker if Colorado loses to Nebraska next weekend, but Colorado has the division in their hands.

Big East
West Virginia and South Florida control their own destiny, as they play each other on the last weekend of the season for the BCS berth in all likelihood. WVU has tough tests against the Bulls and Pittsburgh remaining, but the Mountaineers look like a good bet for the BCS at this point.

Big Ten
Penn State holds their own destiny with a trip to Michigan State remaining on the schedule. Win that game and they win the BCS berth, likely earning a trip to the Orange Bowl, if not the Rose Bowl with some upsets of teams in front of them. If Penn State loses, the winner of Michigan and Ohio State will go to the BCS as conference champion.

Conference USA
In the East division, Central Florida is one win over Rice away from a division title and a great turnaround from a 17-game losing streak which ended early this season. If they slip up unexpectedly, Southern Miss can take the division with wins over Memphis and Tulane in the next two weeks as they beat the Golden Knights head-to-head a few weeks ago. The West division is UTEP's to lose as they have a one-game lead and hold the tiebreaker with SMU and UAB remaining on the schedule. Tulsa is not mathematically eliminated, but they need to win their final game and hope UTEP loses twice to make the first ever CUSA title game.

MAC
This conference will have games on TV most nights over the next two weeks, and the drama is high as the races in both divisions are close. Bowling Green and Miami hold a one game lead on Akron and Ohio in the East, but the schedule is open for anyone to win the division. Miami still has Bowling Green and Ohio to play while BGSU plays Toledo as well. Ohio plays Akron this week in an elimination game. Here's what needs to happen for each team to win the division since it is complicated:

Bowling Green: defeat Miami and Toledo
Miami: defeat Bowling Green and Ohio (or defeat BGSU and have Akron defeat Ohio)
Ohio: defeat Akron and Miami AND have BGSU lose to Miami and Toledo
Akron: defeat Ohio and Kent State AND have Miami lose to BGSU and Ohio

Well if any of that makes sense, then here comes the West. Toledo holds a one game advantage over Northern Illinois and Western Michigan, but the Rockets still have tough games against NIU and BGSU left. Northern Illinois holds their own destiny as they play Western Michigan as well next week. Who knows which two of these seven teams will play in the MAC title game, but there should be plenty of drama in the remaining couple of weeks.

Mountain West
TCU has finished conference play and will sit around contemplating what might have been had they not lost to SMU after the big Oklahoma win.

Pac-10
USC only needs to defeat UCLA in three weeks to lock up the conference title and a BCS berth. If UCLA wins and Oregon defeats Oregon State, then a three-way title will cause UCLA to get the automatic berth into the BCS while Oregon gets left out in the cold. Oregon is still hoping for the at-large BCS berth.

SEC
In the East, Georgia can lock up the division title with a win over Kentucky this week. If they collapse against the Wildcats, then South Carolina and Florida would split the title with them, and Spurrier's Gamecocks would go to the SEC title game. In the West, LSU must defeat Mississippi and Arkansas to make the title game, while the winner of the Iron Bowl will be winning the West if the Tigers slip up.

Sun Belt
Louisiana-Monroe is 4-1 in conference play, while Arkansas State and Louisiana-Lafayette are 4-2 going into the final two weeks of conference play. ULM can win the division if they defeat North Texas and ULL. Arkansas State also plays against North Texas and will hope for Monroe to lose twice for them to win the conference title.

WAC
Fresno State holds a 6-0 record after knocking Boise State into a 5-1 tie with Nevada and Louisiana Tech, but FSU still has Nevada and LA Tech left on their schedule after USC this week. Boise State hosts Idaho this week and then has to travel to Louisiana Tech in a conference elimination game next weekend. Nevada has a quick test against Utah State before FSU. Louisiana Tech holds their own destiny against FSU and BSU, so an interesting couple of weeks in this conference race as well.

BCS Bowl Projections

Rose: USC v. Texas
Orange: Miami v. Penn State
Fiesta: Notre Dame v. Ohio State
Sugar: LSU v. West Virginia

Only change from last week was replacing Virginia Tech with Ohio State. The Buckeyes look better than all their one-loss competitors (Alabama, Virginia Tech, and Oregon), and a win in Ann Arbor should help lock up a BCS at-large assuming no upsets of Texas or USC in the late weeks. Of course an Auburn win over Alabama would also make the Buckeyes more comfortable, but this debate will rage on as the final weeks of the season wind down.

Fitzy's Top 10 - Week 12

1. USC (10-0)
2. Texas (10-0)
3. Miami (8-1)
4. Penn State (9-1)
5. LSU (8-1)
6. Ohio State (8-2)
7. Notre Dame (7-2)
8. Virginia Tech (9-1)
9. Oregon (9-1)
10. Alabama (9-1)
Dropped Out: #9 Georgia (7-2)

BCS Picture Clearing Up

Another great week of conference play has passed us by, and this week cleared up the BCS bowl picture quite a bit. Virginia Tech and UCLA were forcibly removed from the national title race this week, and Alabama remains as the only undefeated on the outside looking in at Texas and USC. I think Miami is a better team than Alabama, but the Tide will certainly have a chance to prove me wrong with upcoming games against LSU and Auburn (and Georgia if both make it to the SEC title game). Texas and USC should continue their coast to the Rose Bowl with no huge bumps left in the road. The better question is how the other BCS bowls will shake out and what teams have a big bowl in their future.

The Pac-10 and Big XII champions will probably be in the Rose Bowl, so the Fiesta Bowl will get to have the first selection to replace Texas, who would normally be tied into Tempe, then the Orange Bowl, and then the Sugar Bowl. The SEC champion (either Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, or LSU) will make the Sugar Bowl, and the ACC champion (Florida State, Miami, or Virginia Tech) will make the Orange Bowl. There are four other spots remaining, one to be filled by the Big Ten champion (Penn State or Ohio State) and another to be filled by the Big East champion (West Virginia or South Florida). For the at-large teams, any team with nine wins who is in the final BCS top twelve is available for selection, while any team in the top four who is not a conference champion must be selected. Now with all that being said, how do I see the bowls at this point?

As mentioned previously, the Rose Bowl should pair USC and Texas. The Fiesta Bowl will probably snap up Notre Dame with the first at-large pick. I think Miami will win the ACC and end up in the Orange Bowl, and the Sugar Bowl will take LSU as the SEC champion. This leaves Penn State, West Virginia, and an at-large remaining, which could be Alabama, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Oregon, or Texas Tech. The Orange Bowl gets preference, and I think they will pair Penn State against Miami. Then the Fiesta Bowl will probably pair Virginia Tech against Notre Dame, which leaves the Sugar with LSU and West Virginia. I will try and update these bowl projections every week after my top ten, and it will be interesting to see how close I get now that the conference races are almost over. The at-large selections will be quite a fight between the SEC's second best team (which I project to be Alabama), Virginia Tech, Ohio State, and Notre Dame.

This week offers a few good games, and the best game of the week will probably be the SEC West showdown between LSU at Alabama. The Tigers have recovered from a shaky start to their season to beat quality teams like Florida and Auburn at home. This is LSU's final test, and the Tigers would have the inside track to the SEC title game if they win at Tuscaloosa. Alabama's offense has left a lot to be desired this week, and I do not know if their defense will be able to carry them through this game. The Tigers are playing better and must take the Tuscaloosa crowd out of the game early if they hope to win. I'll take LSU by ten in this one, removing one more undefeated from the national title race.

Another SEC showdown brings us our second game of the week when Auburn visits Georgia. Auburn cannot afford a loss if they want to stay in the SEC title picture, but Georgia is in the same boat with Florida breathing down their neck. Georgia has had two weeks to think about their loss in Jacksonville, and with D.J. Shockley back, I suspect the Dawgs are ready for a big win. You can never count Auburn out though, as the Tigers are still fighting for the outside chance at a BCS berth and have played well in pressure situations this season. I still think Georgia has had plenty of time to heal up and will be hungry for victory. Georgia by 17.

There are a few options for the third game of the week (including Florida vs. Steve Spurrier's South Carolina team and USC at California), but I have selected Northwestern at Ohio State as my third game of the week. Ohio State has found an offense after their loss to Penn State, and they have lived up to expectations by taking care of their business against weaker Big Ten foes in the past four weeks. Northwestern split a tough two weeks at home by losing to Michigan and creating a miracle comeback to defeat Iowa last week. Northwestern can still get a part of the Big Ten title with a win in Columbus and a little help from Michigan State against Penn State next weekend, so they have more to play for than just bowl position. You can never count out Northwestern; all their games have been crazy this season, which makes this an interesting battle. Oh, and don't forget Northwestern won in OT last season. But this is a much better Buckeye team. Ohio State keeps on trucking to Ann Arbor with a 20-point win this week.

Top 3 Games of the Week record to date: 18-12 (3-0 last week)

Conference Breakdowns

ACC
Florida State has nothing to play for against Clemson this week as they already are in the ACC title game, but don't expect FSU to give up a second loss in a row with Florida and Miami still looming in the next couple weeks. NC State can score a second straight huge road win against Boston College this week, and the Wolfpack needs to win if they wish to play in a bowl this season. Georgia Tech at Virginia is also important for conference and bowl positioning, despite both teams being out of the Coastal division race.

Big XII
Colorado has one final test in going to Ames to face Iowa State this week, but the Buffaloes should take care of business and make the title game to face Texas again in December. Texas A&M has their last legitimate chance to become bowl eligible against Oklahoma this week, as Texas in two weeks is not likely to give them win number six either. Texas Tech and Texas should continue to roll as they position themselves for the bowl season.

Big East
West Virginia travels to Cincinnati for a mid-week clash, and I don't expect the Mountaineers to hiccup in their last easy Big East game of the season (Pittsburgh and USF remain on the schedule). Pittsburgh at 4-5 must not slip up against Connecticut if they wish to have a chance at being bowl eligible if they beat WVU in the Backyard Brawl. Louisville has an interesting matchup against Rutgers, as both teams are bowl eligible and already have two losses in conference play.

Big Ten
All of a sudden, Iowa chokes on their Wildcat meal last week, and now they need a win at Wisconsin or against Minnesota to salvage bowl eligibility. I expect the shootout in Camp Randall this week to be a tough way to get win number six, so we may have to wait another week to see if the Hawkeyes will be bowling. Michigan State is the other team needing one more win for bowl eligibility, and this week's matchup at Minnesota could be a good one with all that as well as conference position on the line. Assuming the Buckeyes take care of business this week, the conference race will come down to an exciting couple of games next weekend.

MAC
The past two weeks have turned this conference race upside down, and I had the pleasure of seeing Toledo in person this past week as they picked apart Ohio in Peden Stadium. Toledo and Ohio, as well as four others, have the weekend off as they prepare to have mid-week showdowns next week. Central Michigan travels to Western Michigan trying to hold onto second place in the West after losing to Northern Illinois last weekend. Next week's games will really set the stage for who will be playing in the MAC title game, and this week is just preparation.

SEC
We've already mentioned the two huge games, and Florida at South Carolina is huge as well. Vanderbilt and Tennessee could set up a huge rivalry game with bowl eligibility on the line next weekend if they both take care of business against Kentucky and Memphis, respectively. Most eyes will be on this conference this week for good reason as this week is the final shakeout before the SEC title game is determined.

Fitzy's BCS Projections - Week 11
ROSE: USC v. Texas
ORANGE: Miami v. Penn State
FIESTA: Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech
SUGAR: LSU v. West Virginia

Fitzy's Top 10 - Week 11
1. USC (9-0)
2. Texas (9-0)
3. Miami (7-1)
4. Alabama (9-0)
5. LSU (7-1)
6. Penn State (9-1)
7. Ohio State (7-2)
8. Notre Dame (6-2)
9. Georgia (7-1)
10. Virginia Tech (8-1)
Dropped Out: #6 UCLA (8-1), #8 Florida State (7-2)

Conference Races Winding Down

Now that most teams have five to six conference games under their belts, realistic goals for the end of the season are being realized for the first time. There are still five undefeated teams fighting for the Rose Bowl, but another fifteen have a legitimate shot at another BCS bowl either by grabbing a rare at-large selection or a conference championship. Huge conference battles in the ACC and Big Ten will all but finish the races for the BCS bids there, or at least set the conference title game that will determine the automatic berth in a month.

One story of some note this week was the rehiring of Charlie Weis for a 10-year extension at Notre Dame. Keep in mind that Tyrone Willingham had a 7-0 record at this point in his career, and he wasn't even allowed to finish his initial three year contract when it was all said and done. This is not a move of job security for Charlie Weis, as he could coach anywhere in football and Notre Dame is his dream job. On the other hand, this is Notre Dame trying to hold onto Weis from the tempting allure of an NFL job when many of them open up this year. This is a nice show of commitment, but they can always fire him at any point, so the news is not really that exciting.

The exciting part is how much he will be paid, estimated to be around three or four million dollars a year. This is a record for college coaches, and Notre Dame is trying to buy their way into the national spotlight for years to come. I guess the past 10 years has been especially painful for ND faithful who expect greatness and received mediocrity every year. If (emphasis on the if) Charlie Weis sticks around for three to five years or more, his influence on college football will not be limited to Notre Dame fighting for national titles again. The effects will be far-reaching as current college coaching geniuses try to keep up with Weis in coaching style and expertise. This hiring was major news on Notre Dame's bye week, and it is appropriate considering Notre Dame is poised to make their first BCS bowl since the Fiesta Bowl a few years ago (assuming they can take care of the four mediocre teams left on their schedule and jump into the top twelve of the BCS standings).

The first game of the week is the battle for the outright Big Ten lead when Wisconsin travels to Happy Valley to take on Penn State. Wisconsin is trying to send Barry Alvarez out with one more Big Ten title, and they control their own destiny as they have the tiebreaker with the Buckeyes if OSU wins out. Penn State also has the Buckeyes by tiebreaker, but that is because they beat them four weeks ago in a defensive struggle. Not to focus on the Buckeyes too much, but this battle between Wisconsin's running attack against Penn State's great defense is like Ohio State's victory over Minnesota's huge rushing attack last week. Defense wins championships and home field is strong in the Big Ten, so I do not expect Penn State to have a letdown on their way to the BCS. I'll take the Nittany Lions by 7.

Virginia Tech has beaten some quality competition already this season in Boston College and West Virginia (well, they are the likely Big East champion anyway), but they are no closer to the BCS title game than they were at the beginning of the season. They still trail Texas and USC and will not be able to overcome them in the polls unless they can win their remaining big games by a large margin. The first of these comes against Miami this week in Blacksburg. Miami is hands-down the best one-loss team in the country, and they would be undefeated if not for offensive woes in their first game against Florida State. The winner of this game can basically lock themselves into an ACC title game appearance with Florida State. Miami just continues to get better and better as the season goes along, while Virginia Tech really has something to prove in this game. The Canes must contain Marcus Vick or else the fans on the road will be hard to overcome. I still think Miami will waltz away from Blacksburg, taking Virginia Tech's Rose Bowl and ACC title hopes with them, claiming a 3 point victory this week. (Sidenote: This would also alleviate most of the BCS controversy at the same time, so we know whom BCS lovers are cheering for this week.)

The final game of the week is California at Oregon. I do not cover the PAC-10 on a regular basis, but I do know that Cal has looked really good and really bad at times this season. Oregon has the lone setback at the hands of USC, but they do not look very impressive overall. This game would go a long way in establishing Oregon's credibility as a possible BCS team assuming they can win out and finish ahead of UCLA in the conference. Autzen Stadium is one of the hardest places to play, but that might just be the field or the ugly uniforms as opposed to the crowd noise. Now that I've fully incited the Duck fans, I will say that I think they are a better team than California. They should win this game, and I'll take the Ducks by 17 in a shootout.

Top 3 Games of the Week Record to Date: 15-12 (3-0 last week)

Conference Rundowns

ACC
Miami v. Virginia Tech is the gemstone of the week, but there are a couple other games to watch. NC State might be in dead-last in the division, but Florida State better not overlook the Pack this week as one more loss could put FSU in jeopardy. Boston College needs to come out of Chapel Hill with a win over North Carolina to keep pace with Florida State, as one Eagle loss gives Florida State the division title. Both of these games have teams with a lot to lose (BCS hopes all the way down to bowl eligibility), and you can never predict how exciting this conference will be from week to week.

Big XII
Texas, please don't let those OSU shenanigans happen again this week at Baylor. There's serious pride at stake here; it would be one of the greatest upsets of all time if the Bears won. I plead for Texas to take care of business in a weak conference this year! For that matter, how does Missouri lose to Kansas? Maybe looking forward to this week's North showdown with Colorado, but let's hope the Tigers don't have another letdown like last week in Boulder. Colorado will wrap up a division title with a win this week, and that means we get to see Texas paste the Buffaloes again in December. Texas A&M at Texas Tech should be a fun one to watch, as those teams jockey for position in the bowl hunt.

Big East
All three games this week have some sort of intrigue. Connecticut will look to derail West Virginia's drive to the BCS this week, but mid-week games in Morgantown are hard to win for visiting teams. Louisville and Pittsburgh battle this week, and the Cardinals could eliminate Pitt from the title chase with a win here. Hard to believe Louisville is playing spoiler in this conference now, but that is the case. South Florida finally gets another conference game (how long has it been since we saw USF and WVU on the field, like 21 days?), and it will be important as they try to keep up with West Virginia and Pittsburgh while knocking Rutgers out of the conference race.

Big Ten
With just three weeks of conference play remaining, this race is pretty much coming down to the wire. The league champion will probably be determined by Wisconsin at Penn State, but other teams are still in contention if the winner of that game slips up in their final conference game (Wisconsin v. Iowa, Penn State at Michigan State). Iowa goes to Northwestern this week in an elimination game of two-loss conference teams, and nothing seems to be able to stop the Hawkeyes except bad luck against Michigan. Michigan has the week off, and the other team in contention - Ohio State - hosts Illinois in what could be the Buckeye's most lopsided victory of the year. Ohio State, Michigan, Iowa, and Northwestern all need more help than just the Wisconsin at Penn State game this week, but it will define the conference race for the final two weeks and give us a final favorite for the BCS berth.

MAC
Anyone watching MAC games this week had to be stunned when incomprehensible results came in across the board. Bowling Green upset by Akron, Northern Illinois losing to lowly Ball State, and Ohio struggling with Buffalo were the highlights. Of course Toledo lost their division lead by losing at Central Michigan, and now the Rockets need help to get to the MAC title game. All of a sudden BGSU and Toledo do not seem so certain for the title game. Northern Illinois could give Toledo all the help they need by knocking off Central Michigan on the road this week, while Toledo cannot afford a loss at a tough Ohio University on Friday night. No other games have huge implications, but each game is important as four teams share the East lead and four teams are within a game in the West. This conference is perhaps the most exciting race in the country.

SEC
Nothing stands out as much as last week, as each of the teams competing for the league title play out-of-contention teams this week. Expect Florida, Alabama, Auburn, and LSU to score easy victories. One other game of note: how badly will Notre Dame beat Tennessee this week? What once seemed like a sure-bet for Tennessee is now almost a sure-bet in the other direction, and it should be entertaining to watch Charlie Weis pick UT apart after the Irish's week off.

Fitzy's Top 10 - Week 10
1. USC (8-0)
2. Texas (8-0)
3. Virginia Tech (8-0)
4. Alabama (8-0)
5. Miami (6-1)
6. UCLA (8-0)
7. LSU (6-1)
8. Florida State (7-1)
9. Penn State (8-1)
(t)10. Ohio State (6-2)
(t)10. Notre Dame (6-2)
Dropped Out: #4 Georgia (7-1), #9 Boston College (6-2)