The Road To Pasadena

Although only one undefeated team, Texas Tech, lost this weekend, the road to the Rose Bowl became clear for all teams still involved. USC and Texas have distanced themselves from the pack, each claiming huge road wins over Notre Dame and Ohio State in recent weeks and generally dominating their competition. Texas has not been truly challenged since early September, and their schedule is the most favorable for taking a return trip to Pasadena this year. USC obviously only has to win out to make it in the game, and this does not seem too difficult until UCLA comes to town.

Virginia Tech is the only team to feel really bad for, but only if they win out and do not make the title game. Boston College, Miami, and an ACC title game against Florida State (more than likely) will give them a challenge. Marcus Vick is really maturing into a leader and a great quarterback, so anything is possible if Beamerball keeps capitalizing on special teams mistakes. I do not see the Hokies winning out, but they have a compelling argument if they do.

The SEC teams which are still undefeated are less than impressive. Georgia was looking good, but they barely squeaked by Arkansas after losing quarterback D.J. Shockley to injury and I'm guessing they will falter in the SEC title game, if not before then. Alabama has won the last two weeks on last-second field goals, and they have been lucky to not lose both of those games. LSU and Auburn remain on the schedule as well as Georgia in the SEC title game (assuming UGA doesn't lose two of their last three conference games), and I actually doubt they will even make the SEC title game after a loss to either Tiger team. The SEC teams are good, but definitely a step below the current top three.

The final undefeated is UCLA, and they have gotten the job done so far. They still have to play USC though, and they will need some serious help to jump Texas or Virginia Tech even if they win. UCLA, we'll talk again in December if you are still undefeated.

The first game of the week comes to us from Blacksburg where Boston College visits Virginia Tech on Thursday night. Boston College has a lone blemish on their record and needs to win to stay in the hunt for a division title now that Florida State must only lose once more for BC to control the division. Virginia Tech could all but ensure Florida State wins their division with a victory here, and I suspect the home field advantage on a weeknight on national television will motivate the Hokies to an important victory. Virginia Tech by 10.

Although there are important games in the Big Ten this weekend, I choose to focus on a different midwestern conference for my second game of the week: Toledo at Central Michigan. After Bowling Green got smashed last weekend, Toledo remains the only undefeated in conference play and appears to be a favorite for the MAC title. They must hold off Central Michigan as they are the only threatening team left to beat in their division (the Rockets beat Northern Illinois earlier). Road games against the Chippewas are never easy, as Ohio University could attest to. I'll take Central Michigan by 14, which will open up this division for an exciting final few weeks of conference play.

Finally, we have The World's Largest Cocktail Party, Georgia against Florida. Georgia would clinch an outright Eastern Division title by giving Florida a third loss, as every other team in the division already has three conference losses. With QB D.J. Shockley not leading the team this week, Florida will seek to take advantage. Even with a full week of practice, I suspect Georgia, after seeing how weak they looked against hapless Arkansas, will struggle this week. With Shockley, I would say Georgia would be dancing to a division title, but I think they leave the ranks of the unbeatens this week. Florida rejoins the division race with a three point victory.

Top 3 Games of the Week Record to date: 12-12 (2-1 last week)

ACC
Although BC at VT is the big game of the week, there are tough challenges for each of the other four teams with one loss in conference play. Maryland has a chance to knock Florida State down into a three-way tie for the conference lead if BC loses as well, but a loss knocks them out of the conference title race. The same situation applies as North Carolina travels to take on Miami in a Coastal Division elimination game. Although both Florida teams will certainly be favored, don't be surprised if these games come down to the wire.

Big XII
Four of the five teams with one loss in conference (Colorado, Missouri, Texas Tech, Oklahoma) have those losses at the hands of 4-0 Texas. None of them has even been close to knocking off the Longhorns, and Texas A&M should not be a problem either. Nebraska is the only two-loss team, and they have a big game against Oklahoma in the only interesting conference game this week. The conference race could become even more lopsided than it is already since every team with zero or one loss in conference plays someone with two or more conference losses this week. It is still Texas and then every team they have beaten so far in Big XII play, and it's beginning to look like nothing will change that this year.

Big East
The only conference game this week is a battle for last place between Cincinnati and Syracuse. Oh, and then there's Navy at Rutgers.

Big Ten
Seven teams remain in the conference race with one or two losses, and two games feature two of these teams in contention this week. Ohio State will have to remove the mistakes to defeat Minnesota on the road, but the Buckeye defense is hard to overcome either way. Michigan comes off a huge road win at Iowa, and they come into Northwestern this week with a chance to knock another team into the two-loss bracket with them. Northwestern has played surprisingly well, but this stretch of games against Michigan, Iowa, and Ohio State in consecutive weeks could break the Wildcats. Indiana and Michigan State need to shake off bad losses from the past two weeks when they play each other this week, as both hold 4-3 records and need to win this game to have a chance at getting the eighth bowl bid from the Big Ten this season.

SEC
Other than the Cocktail Party, one other interesting battle in the East division should merit attention from a national audience this week. Steve Spurrier has turned South Carolina into a decent team under his system, but another test this week comes when they travel to Knoxville to take on Tennessee. Neither team has played particularly impressively so far, and both have three losses already. Another conference loss makes one of these teams in danger of missing out on bowl season, so Spurrier needs to pull a road miracle to save his season now.

Fitzy's Top 10 - Week 9
1. USC (7-0)
2. Texas (7-0)
3. Virginia Tech (7-0)
4. Georgia (7-0)
5. Alabama (7-0)
6. Miami (5-1)
7. UCLA (7-0)
8. LSU (5-1)
9. Boston College (6-1)
10. Florida State (6-1)
Dropped Out: #8 Texas Tech (6-1)

It's Back, The BCS Returns

It might have a different poll this year, and it might still not be a fair system, but the BCS is back to weekly prominence in the college football world. At this critical midpoint of the season, looking at the BCS standings can tell us a lot about the hopes and dreams of the top teams in the nation for making the Rose Bowl or another BCS bowl come January.

One certain outcry of the BCS this week is how low Notre Dame fell after their loss to USC and their downfall at the hands of computers. Computers take into account the quality of opponents played, and an honest look at Notre Dame's wins (Michigan, Purdue, Washington, and Pittsburgh) shows not a lot of impressive victories. There is no debating they are one of the top ten teams in the country right now with how well they are playing, but the human polls can reward teams for how they play while computers reward quality schedules. Notre Dame still has tough games remaining on their schedule, and they will likely find a BCS bowl if they win out anyway.

In the end, the middle range of teams are very hard to differentiate without proof on the field to see the differences. The top two-loss teams in the country such as Notre Dame, Ohio State, Tennessee, and Florida are pretty much indistinguishable as far as who deserves to make a BCS bowl the most if they win out. Where these teams rank when other teams above them lose their second games will be hard to determine as well. Polls generally favor good play towards the end of the season, but computers will try and keep this system honest by taking into consideration the statistical aspects of a team. My advice is to ignore the BCS standings until the last couple weeks of the season, as that will be the only time it determines anything important. The fact of the matter remains that USC and Texas probably deserve the Rose Bowl if they win out (a general consensus at this point of the season), and the BCS does not disagree with this at midseason. Virginia Tech and an undefeated SEC champion Georgia or Alabama will have great arguments, such as playing in harder conferences than the top two, but at this point, the top two teams in the country are undisputed.

Now, just like every other week, I bring you my top three games of the week. The fact that now they can officially be called "BCS Spotlight Games" doesn't change a thing about the beauty of these big matchups. I doubt there will be games as good as Michigan beating Penn State and USC beating Notre Dame this week, but hopefully the following games will still be very exciting.

West Virginia showed a lot of heart, a lot of determination, and a little bit of luck in coming back to beat Louisville last week. South Florida destroyed Louisville a few weeks ago, so West Virginia has to be ready for a big attack from the Bulls this week. West Virginia seems to come up with big plays when they need to, and I suspect their offense will continue to find its stride this week against a mediocre USF defense. That is, if something called Wilma doesn't prevent this game from happening this weekend. West Virginia eliminates another good team from the Big East race this week by 7.

Update! Since Wilma has stormed out WVU-USF, I'll give a bonus pick: Alabama beats Tennessee by 21 in a resurgence. The Tide knows how to win the big home games, and I don't expect that trend to stop.

Game of the week number two is also from the SEC, Auburn at LSU. LSU is the feel-good story in college football this year, but Auburn is the toughest competition the Tigers have hosted this year. The loser of this game will probably not overcome the loss to make the SEC title game, with Alabama and the winner of this game running away with the division. I'll take Auburn by 3.

Texas has only one obstacle between them and the Big XII title game, and that obstacle, Texas Tech, is coming to town this weekend. Texas Tech has a great offense as they have had the past few seasons, but the team has been playing much better ever since last year's drubbing at the hands of the Longhorns. Texas should not be giving up this game on their home field, but don't think this game will be anything like last year's blowout. The Red Raider offense and the Longhorn defense are very impressive and will probably negate each other, but Texas has a huge advantage in Vince Young and the offense. Young has dismantled every defense he played against this year, and Texas Tech is no Ohio State. I will always take a prolific defense over a prolific offense, so Texas wins this one by 17.

No realistic chance to go over each conference battle this week, but keep your eyes on the Big Ten as always this week. All five teams with only one conference loss play one of the six teams with two or more conference losses this week, so the conference could become a real mess or a little more defined this week. Every week is exciting in this part of the country, and I expect Michigan at Iowa and Northwestern at Michigan State to be a couple of the best games this week.

Top 3 Games of the Week Record to date: 10-11 (3-0 last week)

Fitzy's Top 10 - Week 8
1. USC (6-0)
2. Texas (6-0)
3. Virginia Tech (6-0)
4. Georgia (6-0)
5. Alabama (6-0)
6. Miami (5-1)
7. UCLA (6-0)
8. Texas Tech (6-0)
9. LSU (4-1)
10. Boston College (6-1)
Dropped Out: #5 Florida State, #7 Penn State, #8 Notre Dame

Traditional Powers Looking Good

Another week passes by, and the traditional powers find more success while recent powerhouses falter. Penn State and Alabama may have big tests in front of them still, but both teams have to be considered the new surprise favorite for a league title (Penn State has an outright conference lead already!). Notre Dame did lose to Michigan State and has a tough battle against USC this week, but nobody can deny Charlie Weis has this team looking like Notre Dame of old times, smashing high level competition. Nebraska did falter this week to Texas Tech, but they will face no other great test other than Texas this season assuming they continue their run through the Big XII North division. Each of these teams could have been written off for dead, and now they could be budding new dynasties. It's amazing how college football goes in cycles.

Speaking of cycles, the other side is not pretty as Michigan is 3-3 and looking terrible going into their big game with Penn State this week. Oklahoma is an embarrassing 2-3 after a killing by Texas, and Ohio State (the last team to win a national title before USC) may not be a dynasty but has taken unexpected lumps already. Hopefully the rest of the season will be as unexpected and exciting as the first half!

There are many great games this week, including Wisconsin at Minnesota, Michigan State at Ohio State, Florida at LSU, Penn State at Michigan, and Florida State at Virginia. Despite all of this great football, I must select three top games of the week, and I may pick games which may not be as close as these but they still have huge bearing in their own ways.

I begin with the Big East championship game, also known as Louisville at West Virginia. WVU plays really well at home and the loss to Virginia Tech was expected, but the Mountaineers were not very impressive in their wins. Louisville is on and off this season, dropping a conference game to South Florida but nothing else. I think Louisville has more talent and desire, but West Virginia is tough to beat in Morgantown. A virtual toss-up, I'll take the Mountaineers by 3.

Colorado is the only Big XII conference unbeaten left alongside Texas and Texas Tech, and the Longhorns will be more challenged by the Red Raiders and the Buffaloes than the Sooners this year. Texas should defend the home turf here, but Colorado could be a letdown game coming off the Red River Rundown. If Texas allows Colorado to have a 14-21 point lead early, I do not know if they will recover. Of course this is a worst-case scenario, but for Texas this is one of their few remaining games which might be close between them and a Rose Bowl appearance. I'll still take Texas by 20.

Hands down the game of the week hype-wise and in my article is USC traveling to South Bend to play Notre Dame. The Gold Domers are a lot better than the last few years, and Charlie Weis could bury USC if the Trojans come out to their fourth straight slow start. UND's extra week to prepare is also bad news for the Trojans, but the rivalry will not be overlooked by USC. The target on the champion's back is tough to shake off, and I would not be surprised if this game is won by either team. Expect a close battle which will determine bragging rights for years to come, and my pick is USC by 10.

ACC
When the prettiest game to talk about this week is Florida State at Virginia, you know it's an off week in the ACC. Florida State and Virginia Tech are on a collision course for the title game, but don't discount Miami!

Big XII
Other than the Colorado-Texas showdown, the only other notable matchup is Texas Tech hosting Kansas State. K-State could get back on the map with a win in Lubbock, and the Red Raiders might be looking ahead to next week's battle with the 'Horns. Nebraska at Baylor is also another game of minor interest this week.

Big Ten
Who would have thought Penn State would be the only undefeated conference team at this point in the season, while pre-season conference favorites Iowa, Purdue, Ohio State, and Michigan all have two or more losses? This conference may get a lot of attention, but every week there seems to be great games on the national spotlight. Penn State has two tough games remaining in the state of Michigan, and the Wolverines could ruin a dream season for Joe Paterno this year (a role the cornered Wolverines are very good at). Michigan State and Ohio State are jockeying for Big Ten conference position this week in a vital game with both teams sitting with a loss already, and Wisconsin visits Minnesota in a battle for second place in the conference. A great week to admire the Big Ten race!

Big East
Well there's Louisville at WVU, and then there's not much. South Florida and Connecticut have tough road tests at Pittsburgh and Cincinnati this week, respectively, but they should overcome them and stay in the conference lead no matter what happens in Morgantown this weekend.

Conference USA
UTEP at Tulane is a critical West division battle, as all those teams already have a conference loss. The East has some shake-down games as well among their four powerful teams as UAB visits Marshall and Central Florida gets a tough night game at Southern Miss. There could be no undefeated teams in the conference after this week, making a Big Ten type free-for-all for the rest of the season.

MAC
This past week was very enlightening, as Toledo and Bowling Green won close games against their toughest division competition and now hold leads by themselves. Toledo could have a tricky game at Ball State this week, but I'll be paying more attention to Ohio and Eastern Michigan who have tough road games this week and must not get down about losing the conference lead before they end up out of the race entirely in two weeks.

Sun Belt
Yes I cover this conference, and the only two conference unbeaten teams clash this week when Troy goes to Louisiana-Monroe. I think this is where Troy will establish their status as the best in this conference, at least for the first half of the season.

SEC
Florida at LSU is a very important inter-divisional matchup, as both teams cannot afford a second conference loss with Alabama, Auburn, and Georgia all running away currently. Vanderbilt was slammed to reality this week, and Georgia visiting this week will not stop the Commodores' bleeding. If Florida manages to escape LSU, then the Cocktail Party will be rocking in a couple weeks with tons on the line.

Top 3 Games of the Week record to date: 7-11 (2-1 last week - don't call it a comeback)

Fitzy's Top 10 - Week 7
1. USC (5-0) NC
2. Texas (5-0) NC
3. Virginia Tech (6-0) NC
4. Georgia (5-0) NC
5. Florida State (5-0) +1
6. Alabama (5-0) +1
7. Penn State (6-0) NR
8. Notre Dame (4-1) NR
9. Miami (4-1) +1
10. UCLA (5-0) NR
Dropped Out: #5 Ohio State (3-2), #9 Tennessee (3-2), #9 California (5-1)

Conference Title Games in October?

After watching this past week's games, most of the major conferences have sorted themselves out nicely. There are only twelve undefeated teams left spread among five BCS conferences (the Big East lost theirs last this week thanks to Virginia Tech), and no more than five of those teams will finish the year undefeated. It appears that this will be another year where one or two one-loss teams will make the Rose Bowl, and the BCS will be vital in figuring out which team is most deserving. Every week the major conferences seem to have at least one major game with national title implications. Based on the first two weeks of conference play, this week's top games could effectively be conference or division title games in the middle of October! The winners of the following top three games will certainly be conference title frontrunners for the next few weeks, so the BCS implications are obvious. Two important games I did not select below will be covered more in the conference breakdowns, but Ohio at Bowling Green will be the biggest test for BGSU in the MAC regular season and California at UCLA will determine USC's biggest competition for the Pac-10. That being said, here are your top three games of the week!

Oklahoma. The mere word put Texas fans in fear the past five years. This was the big game that always vaulted Oklahoma to national championship chances and Big XII title games. This year Texas again has more talent and will be favored to win the game, but Oklahoma is truly rebuilding for the first time under Bob Stoops. Texas proved themselves four weeks ago in the Horseshoe, and that game as it turns out was a bigger game than this one. Texas understands that losing to Oklahoma would probably eliminate them from the Big XII title game once again, and I really cannot see them passing up on this opportunity. Bob Stoops can out-coach Mack Brown all he wants, but Texas will score at least 20 with Vince Young at the helm and that will be more than enough with Oklahoma's offensive woes. I'll take Texas by 21 in a game of revenge and national statement. If Oklahoma wins this game, it will perhaps be the greatest upset in this series!

Two weeks and nine conference games into Big Ten play, and eight different teams have lost a conference game (Illinois lost two!). Wisconsin has knocked Michigan and Indiana out of the lead and gets a relative rest this week at Northwestern, but Ohio State has to travel to Penn State to take on JoePa's fantastic freshmen. The Nittany Lions have never been an easy out for the Buckeyes, but this is the first year in this decade that Paterno has real national talent in the plain uniforms again. Unfortunately for Penn State, Ohio State will not be overlooking them for Michigan State, and they have had two weeks to prepare for the Lions. Ohio State always comes out cold in their first road game (just like the other Big Ten power Michigan), so Penn State could grab a lead and hold it most of the game. As impressive as Penn State's win over Minnesota was last week, Ohio State has a national championship caliber defense and will not let Penn State score 30, let alone 44 this week. A couple of breaks (read: more Buckeye fumbles in red zone attempts) and Penn State could pull the upset and become a surprise conference title favorite and national title darkhorse. I'll take OSU by seven, though, as I really doubt Tressel will waste the extra week to prepare for a hostile road game.

The SEC's Florida, Tennessee, and LSU all dropped from the undefeated ranks and the top ten early this season in conference showdowns. Tennessee has recovered from the loss to Florida and was helped by Alabama this week in perhaps gaining control of their own destiny in the SEC East again. The Volunteers must get by Georgia this week at home or else they will probably be permanently removed from the SEC title race and BCS bowl possibilities. Rick Clausen looked good last week, but Georgia is a whole different test. Will Georgia falter like every other top ten SEC team before them in a big conference battle? I'll take Georgia after only watching their early big victories, but it will be very close. Georgia by 3, and maybe some overtime!

Conference Breakdowns

ACC
Florida State and Virginia Tech have already distanced themselves by not losing in conference play, but they are also fighting for the Rose Bowl as both are undefeated after big out-of-conference games against Miami and West Virginia. This week Wake Forest has a chance to shock the world in Tallahassee and take the division lead, but I would be surprised if FSU's great defense let the Demon Deacons even score more than once this game. Virginia and Boston College are playing an inter-divisional battle which will eliminate one of them from the conference title hunt, and that is the game to watch this week.

Big XII
Oklahoma and Texas will gain all of the national attention, but there is another game between undefeated conference teams this week which merits attention. Nebraska hosts Texas Tech's high powered offense this week as well. This game has a lot of pride for the North division riding on it, as Colorado and Nebraska are the only really good looking North division teams, and Texas Tech is simply a mediocre South division team. My title of mediocre will certainly be dropped if the Red Raiders can come out of Nebraska with a win, and Texas will certainly take notice of the winner of this battle. No other conference game stands out, but Kansas at Kansas State should be entertaining for the rivalry value.

Big East
West Virginia at Rutgers: I never thought this would be a battle for conference leadership with South Florida on their tails, but here they stand going into this week. West Virginia looked decent against Virginia Tech, but the loss should rile up the Mountaineers this week and give them plenty of momentum heading into the battle with Louisville in a couple weeks, which will probably be for the conference BCS berth assuming South Florida comes back to reality.

Big Ten
Other than Ohio State at Penn State, there is not much here this week other than Minnesota looking to rebound at Michigan and Indiana making sure Illinois stays in the Big Ten cellar. Iowa at Purdue was supposed to be Purdue's toughest conference battle coming into this season, but losses to Notre Dame and Minnesota have taken Purdue right out of the Big Ten race, while Iowa looked embarrassed at the hands of Ohio State two weeks ago. Whoever comes out of this game has an outside chance at the league title, but they will need a lot of help and solid play down the road to get a BCS berth.

Conference USA
Not much going on here, but Houston at Tulane should be the game of the week. Houston needs to recover from their 0-1 conference record quickly if they wish to have a hope in this conference race. UAB also looks good this week going into their game against SMU.

MAC
There are three very interesting games this week in conference play, and all four undefeated teams in the conference play each other this week. There is also an elimination game for two one-loss teams. Miami and Northern Illinois can trade war stories about their games at The Big House and The Horseshoe, but both need to recover from their first MAC loss if they hope to keep up with the leaders as determined by this week's other two big games in the MAC. Eastern Michigan should be exposed at Toledo, and Ohio will have a tough road trying to win in Bowling Green, but don't underestimate EMU or OU after their tough preparation in out-of-conference games. Bowling Green and Toledo were my favorites for the MAC title game, and the opportunity to knock off their only other undefeated division-mates will be big motivation for this week. We will know more about the MAC than any other conference after this week of play.

SEC
Georgia at Tennessee is the headliner, but there is one other big game in the conference this week. LSU will try to bounce back from all their early-season woes against a surprising Vanderbilt team needing just two more wins to be bowl eligible. Vanderbilt gets to host this game, and I wouldn't be surprised if they grab more national headlines after this week.

Well that's all I have for this week, so let me wrap it up with the usual ending. Have a great week!

Top 3 Games of the Week record to date: 5-10 (0-3 last week)

Fitzy's Top 10 - Week 6
1. USC (4-0) NC
2. Texas (4-0) NC
3. Virginia Tech (5-0) NC
4. Georgia (4-0) +1
5. Ohio State (3-1) +2
6. Florida State (4-0) NC
7. Alabama (5-0) NR
8. Tennessee (3-1) +1
9. California (5-0) NR
10. Miami (3-1) NC
Dropped Out: #4 Florida (4-1), #8 Michigan State (4-1).