A wise college coach once said, “conference play is the second season, a step up from the non-conference play in intensity and passion.” As college football officially moves into conference play last weekend and this weekend, these words ring true no matter what league you speak of. The battles are always a bit more intense, as regional and conference bragging rights are on the line every week. Teams who play you every year know your style and know how to beat you, so even games against the lowly weaklings of the conference cannot be taken lightly.
The conference season also brings a change from the heat of summer to the chilly autumn weather, what some would characterize as football weather. As shown last weekend in some key matchups (Notre Dame and Michigan State in a driving rainstorm, Iowa State and Texas delayed over an hour by a thunderstorm, Penn State and Ohio State slogging through a muddy, rainy day in Columbus), the change of weather can have crucial impacts on the outcome of games. Perhaps one of many reasons great defenses win championships is because at some point in the year, the inclement weather will grind good and great offenses to a halt...and if you cannot rely on the defense to get you out of a close game, your team usually misses out on conference and national titles.
The focus of the first season has seemed to linger in the Midwest, specifically in Big Ten and Big 12 country. Huge games in this part of the country have compelled the nation throughout September. For example, the College Gameday show usually broadcasts live from the location of the best game of the week, and in September that crew has basically followed #1 Ohio State around through their brutal September schedule, including broadcasts of OSU-Texas, OSU-Penn State, and now OSU-Iowa. The other Midwestern team with a brutal September is Notre Dame, and they have had their fair share of national spotlight (Georgia Tech and Michigan State games were primetime games, all other games at home were still nationally broadcast by another network). This week continues the trend, as the far and away best game of the week is a historic Big Ten clash in Iowa City.
Now as we move into October, the birds fly south and the focus of the football nation will also shift southward. Although there will be occasional big games in the Midwest such as Penn State-Michigan, Louisville-West Virginia, and Michigan-Iowa, the truly captivating top 25 battles will mostly come from the SEC. With four teams currently ranked in some of the national rankings as top 10 teams, the SEC seems to have important and intriguing conference games every week in October. To top it all off, the darlings of September (Ohio State and Notre Dame) really have no more big national spotlight games until the end of the year when Michigan visits OSU and Notre Dame goes out west to face USC. So the focus will shift south like the migration patterns of birds, if you will.
Before we turn our complete focus down south, there remains one week in September and one week of big battles in the Midwest. Before getting into the specifics of this week’s top games, let’s look at a few of the pleasant surprises and biggest disappointments in the first four weeks of the season.
BEST SURPRISES
Some teams are expected to be undefeated, but other programs which had much lower expectations have pleasantly surprised the country by almost ensuring bowl eligibility in September. Rutgers went to their first bowl game in a long time last year, and a 4-0 start this season has them nationally ranked for the first time in 30 years. The Scarlet Knights might even make the Big East more than just a Louisville-WVU showdown. Wake Forest has overcome adversity to a probable 5-0 start and perhaps will compete in the weak ACC this season. (With the inconsistency of NC State, Clemson, FSU, BC, and Maryland, Wake Forest could go from perennial worst to division champion.)
Washington may finally be on the right track again with coach Willingham leading the Huskies to a 3-1 record and a shocking win over UCLA. Missouri, Purdue, and Houston all have tough battles ahead, but all have started 4-0 and look much better than last season. My final pleasant surprise has been Syracuse, which finally has two wins in a row and a 2-2 record after losing so many games in a row and what could have been a team demoralizer at home against Iowa earlier in the season.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENTS
First and foremost, I am a little disappointed with how replay has been conducted in the month, but I figure this is just a bad time and we will have an upswing of good calls for the rest of the season. Although Colorado put up a valiant effort against Georgia and should have won, the Buffaloes 0-4 start is nothing short of unacceptable. Vanderbilt almost made a big bowl splash last season, but a 1-3 start is not leading them toward that again this year. The entire ACC, except for Virginia Tech and Wake Forest, has been utterly awful so far, and this includes powerhouses Florida State and Miami. These teams need to turn it around in conference play, or else each will be buried and fans will begin or continue to put the coaches on the hot seat.
For some reason it was hard to decide which games I think are the second and third best games this week, and I had to leave out possible gems such as Michigan-Minnesota, Alabama-Florida, Purdue-Notre Dame, and Boise State-Utah. These games are all intriguing, but there is something a little better about the following three games.
I start this week with Texas Christian traveling to Utah to take on Brigham Young. Unlike the Boise State-Utah game (which is just as important as far as getting a non-BCS team into a BCS bowl is concerned), this game is an in-conference Mountain West clash. TCU has the longest active winning streak in Division 1-A football at 13 games, capped off two weeks ago by an impressive 12-3 win over offensive powerhouse Texas Tech. TCU did get a bye week to prepare, but the Horned Frogs also have to play their two toughest MWC games in a row (a roadtrip to Utah looms next weekend). BYU looked good in their toughest game thus far, a double-OT loss at Boston College. Despite having a pretty good offensive attack, BYU is starting their backup QB, and this will be the key to the game. TCU has one of the best defensive fronts in the country, and BYU will have to establish the running game if their high-powered offense is to do anything. I predict BYU QB Beck and RB Fui Vakapuna have rough outings in this one, and the Horned Frogs extend the winning streak with a 10-point victory.
The second game of the week is one of the only times two good ACC teams meet this season, Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech. Although VT struggled into the fourth quarter against Cincinnati, they will be prepared for this possibly Coastal division-deciding game. Georgia Tech has looked outstanding since opening with a tough loss to Notre Dame, and the defense carries the team. The offenses are very similar, but Virginia Tech relies a bit more on the passing game and the suspension of second best WR Josh Morgan for team rules violations will have an effect on the Hokies. As long as Georgia Tech makes no special teams mistakes against Beamerball, the Jackets can come out with a win. I think Virginia Tech gets a big win at home though, slowing QB Reggie Ball and WR Calvin Johnson enough to allow the offense to keep up. VT by 3.
Clearly the best game of the week is Ohio State visiting Iowa for its first Big Ten road test. There has not been a bigger game in Iowa City, perhaps ever, but at least for 20 years (1985 #1 Michigan v. #2 Iowa, 1992 night game against Miami FL, 1996 only other College Gameday trip to Kinnick for #2 OSU v. #20 Iowa). This game has all of the above, a #1 ranked visitor, the second ever night game at Kinnick, and the second ever visit by Gameday. Ohio State is no stranger to the big games, having already won on the road at night against #2 Texas and overcoming #23 Penn State last weekend. Iowa escaped the non-conference schedule and the Iowa State game undefeated for only the second time in ten years, but Iowa has been just as good as Michigan and Ohio State since their 2002 Big Ten title run. The home team has held serve in this series in this decade, including two OSU wins in 2003 (19-10) and 2005 (31-6) while Iowa won in 2004 (33-7). Ohio State has had Iowa’s number since 1990 though, winning nine of the last ten.
Although Iowa seems to have proven they belong with Michigan and Ohio State in the first tier of the conference, this game would probably cement that in stone and further solidify Kirk Ferentz’s record as Iowa coach. A national TV spotlight primetime on the team and the newly renovated Kinnick Stadium is what Iowa longed for, and now the Hawks get a chance to prove themselves. I have witnessed each of the last three games in this series and have my tickets for the game this Saturday, and I cannot wait to see the atmosphere in Iowa City. For one final weekend in September, the Midwest will be the place to be for college football.
The game itself has one of the two Heisman favorites, OSU QB Troy Smith, and two other hopefuls, OSU WR Ted Ginn and Iowa QB Drew Tate. The Ohio State offense is overpowering on paper but has sputtered in the first half against Cincinnati and all game against Penn State in the last two weeks. Smith, Ginn, and (just-as-dangerous) second WR Anthony Gonzalez should have a field day with Iowa’s conservative coverage schemes. Iowa will refuse to give up the big play that has haunted OSU competition thus far, and so the key to this half of the game will be how the front four defenders of Iowa perform getting much needed pressure on Troy Smith while stopping the great rushing attack of Antonio Pittman and Chris Wells.
The other side of the coin matches the young but proven Buckeye defense against an experienced Iowa offense. Iowa has looked good offensively in every game except the Syracuse contest, which Tate missed, so it is obvious that Tate needs to lead this offense for them to be successful. Albert Young will have to have a better running day than his 4 yard-per-carry season average indicates, and the Buckeyes have given up the ground game to each team this year. Even with this apparent weakness in the defense, Iowa will still need Tate to make good decisions and great passes to prevent the Buckeye linebackers and secondary from taking the game over. Special teams cannot be overlooked either, as all three touchdowns in the 2003 game were on special teams and Tressel depends on his punting and special teams to win games. Assuming the weather is good and Ohio State makes no special teams mistakes, they will have too much for the Hawkeyes in this contest. OSU by 10, pulling away late.
GOTW 2006 Record to Date: 9-3
Last Week: 3-0
Fitzy’s Top 10 – Week 5
1. Ohio State
2. USC
3. Michigan
4. Auburn
5. West Virginia
6. Florida
7. Texas
8. Louisville
9. Iowa
10. TCU
As I said before, I will be in Iowa City all weekend for the big game, so if you want to meet up at the tailgate, shoot me an email. Have a great week and we’ll see you back here next week, as we welcome October and SEC showdowns to the fray.
Wednesday, September 27, 2006
Thursday, September 21, 2006
CALM DOWN PEOPLE, IT'S JUST A GAME!
Welcome back everybody! I hope you had a chance to see some of the great football of “Separation Saturday,” as most of the big games were well worth watching. In case you missed it, the most exciting finish was in Autzen Stadium as Oregon stormed back from a 13 point deficit with three minutes left to defeat Oklahoma 34-33. The fallout from this game has been incredible, and I’m here to tell Oklahoma fans to get over it!
Let’s start by reviewing what happened on the field. Oklahoma had full control of the game and conservatively kicked a field goal in the middle of the fourth quarter to up their lead to 33-20. Oregon got the ball with about 4 minutes left, stormed down the field against OU’s prevent defense, and scored a touchdown with 1:20 left to play. The onside kick went nine or ten yards before being touched by a player, and Oregon was ruled to have the ball. The replay seemed to show an Oregon player touching the ball somewhere between the 9 and 10 yard mark and Oklahoma coming up with it initially after the first bounce.
After much review, the booth official held that Oklahoma touched the ball first, making the ball live and allowing Oregon to keep possession. This appears to be wrong from the replays, as the only issue appears to be whether the Oregon player touched the ball before it went 10 yards or not. The replay was unclear. Then on the ensuing drive, Oregon got a critical first down on a pass interference call, which was reviewed to see if the pass was tipped at the line of scrimmage (and the replay looked like it was, but not conclusively). The pass interference stood, and Oregon continued to get another TD. Oklahoma returned the ensuing kickoff to the 25 yard line of Oregon and still looked like they were going to escape before they ran the clock down with an inexplicable running play and had the last-second field goal blocked. Oregon wins 34-33.
Now what happened off the field is what I want to discuss. The Pac-10 suspended the officials for a game for bad calls (since at least the replay on the onside kick was decided wrong, at minimum the officials should have said Oregon touched it after 10 yards or they touched it before it went 10, forcing a rekick). Oklahoma’s university president requested that the game and result be erased from the NCAA records. OU coach Bob Stoops stood behind his president, saying the calls were wrong and his kids shouldn’t suffer at the hands of the refs. Now Oklahoma is threatening to cancel their game at Washington in 2008 if the Pac-10 conference continues its policy of using their own officials for home non-conference games. This has gotten absurd, and it is time for everybody to calm down and get over this game.
There are three primary reasons Oklahoma should quit complaining about this game:
1. There are bad calls from time to time; that is the human nature of the game and referees. Without review, these calls would have been made in the best determinations of the referees, and both calls would have been the same. Keep in mind the video replay has to be “conclusive” if a call on the field is to be overturned. While I believe both calls could have been made either way and the replays appeared to show some evidence that both calls should be overturned, I do not know if either replay gave us enough to “conclusively” determine the calls were wrong. Even if they were bad calls, it does not matter, as good teams have to put up with and overcome some adversity like this to succeed over the course of a season.
2. There has been no precedent of games being removed from the record just because of bad calls. To give Oklahoma this concession would be to open a Pandora’s Box of claims for years to come. Every team from national title contenders to teams with no chance (see Illinois, Syracuse, and Temple for example) would begin crying if there were a questionable call near the end of a close game. If this were not such a big storied program like Oklahoma, this probably would not even be a story. Face the facts Oklahoma: you were ranked out of the top 10 all season for a reason, and that reason is that nobody expects you to be better than a middling team in the Big 12. At the end of the day, you still had plenty of opportunities to win this game, including not allowing your field goal at the end to get blocked, but also including the questionable prevent defense and conservative offense in the last half of the fourth quarter. Oklahoma had their chance to win, and this game will not set a precedent of removing games from the record that would only be a huge detriment to the game we love.
3. Third and most importantly, it's just a game! If you are not an Oklahoma player or coach and you have lost sleep over this game, I do not care if you are the biggest OU fan ever...you need to let it go. College football is great because we are so passionate about the games, but at the end of the day, one loss does not ruin a season for a team such as Oklahoma and it certainly will not degrade their elite program reputation. Adrian Peterson still has a great chance to win the Heisman, and overcoming this tough road loss (by one point, which doesn’t look bad) with all your QB problems would be impressive. Despite my earlier assertion that Oklahoma will probably not compete for a Big 12 title, the Sooners are 0-0 in conference play and have every opportunity to run the table and prove me wrong. If that happens, nobody will fault you for your loss if you are the most qualified one-loss team to play in the title game. Oklahoma also did not take any beating in the polls, and Oregon did not gain much. This is because in the end, voters are human too, and we take into consideration how you lost. Yes Oklahoma, you deserved to lose in some respect, but I’ll take your 12-1 team over pretty much all other 11-1 or 12-1 teams at the end of the year. At the end of the day, college football is a game, and sometimes you do not get the breaks. It is painful, but don’t lose sleep because there is always this Saturday...and the next one...and next season.
I apologize to Oklahoma fans if this is a bit harsh, but take a look in the mirror and see how absurd your university has acted this week. A university president should act far more distinguished than a sore loser, and I think more complaining will just hurt the reputation of the university, as well as the football program. Some things are unchangeable no matter how hard you fight (not only losses staying on the record, but also things such as the rule that players cannot enter the pro leagues until after their third year of college). Do not break your contract with Washington for the home-and-home series (the game at Oklahoma already happened) over officials, as some human will have to adjudicate the game, and who cares where their paycheck comes from (they are paid to be neutral). Show class and go prove your worth on the field for the rest of the season, and you will be rewarded for how you handle adversity.
Looking at the games for this week makes me long for last weekend. I know we cannot have seven matchups of top 25 teams playing each other every weekend, but more than one would be nice! Well, since beggars can’t be choosers, I present the not-so-amazing but still interesting top three games of the week!
The first game was a tough choice between a few candidates, but I’ll take Arizona State at California as the third best game of the week. The Pac-10 is a mess behind USC, and the only way to organize teams such as ASU, Cal, and Oregon is seeing them settle it on the field. Both of these teams could be landmines for USC later on, but they need to improve to win this weekend’s game, let alone take on the Trojans. Arizona State QB Rudy Carpenter has looked good in the three ASU wins, but the team should have moved the ball better against a terrible Colorado squad last weekend. Cal is still reeling a little from the punch in the mouth they received from a much-better-than-anticipated Tennessee team on opening weekend. This is the key game for Cal as losing a critical home conference game could tear this team apart, while a win could launch them to a conference title run and confidence. Both teams have strikingly similar stats after three games offensively, but Arizona State has looked a little better on defense. I think this is a game totally dependent on Golden Bear RB Marshawn Lynch, as establishing a running game with clock control will be crucial. I think the homefield advantage is too big for Cal to give up, and so I'll take the Bears by 13.
The second game is the weekly primetime national TV game, that being Notre Dame at Michigan State. The other Michigan team made Brady Quinn and Charlie Weis look silly on their own home field last week. The going gets no easier for the Irish as Michigan State is always a thorn in Notre Dame’s side, especially on the road. MSU won in South Bend last year, and both Quinn and Weis remember the sickening feeling of their first loss last season. Both teams have great leaders at quarterback, as Drew Stanton has similar stats and almost the same abilities as Brady Quinn. Darius Walker and the ND rushing game have not fared well in three games, and Michigan State is especially stout against the run. As long as Michigan State can get some breaks like Michigan did last week and not make big mistakes that have killed coach John L. Smith’s teams in the past, the Spartans look like the favorite. While it feels wrong to pick against a team with all the advantages, including the home field, I just have a feeling that some intangibles will show on Saturday night, and Notre Dame will get back on their feet. I’ll take ND by 3, but I will not be surprised if MSU pulls out a victory.
The game of the week was an easy choice this week, and that would be Penn State visiting national champion favorite Ohio State. Heisman leader QB Troy Smith and hopeful WR Ted Ginn Jr. lead the potent Buckeye offense, but the key to their three blowout victories this season has been the revamped defense. This game does not look that close on paper, but Penn State always makes it close in the Horseshoe and the Nittany Lions were one of two OSU losses last year in a 17-10 slugfest. Penn State needs to improve dramatically on defense as Notre Dame has similar weapons on offense and they sliced up PSU in short order. The Lions win games between these two teams with defense and turnovers (2 turnovers last season led to 10 PSU points while the OSU defense received no turnovers). QB Anthony Morelli and RB Hunt will have their hands full, but the Buckeyes seem to give up a lot of rushing yards if you keep pounding them. The problem is they do not give up the big play, and they tighten up in the red zone. Ohio State might be looking ahead to their tough road game at Iowa next week, but Penn State will not be ignored as OSU would love to avenge both their losses from last season (Texas and PSU) in the first four weeks of the new season. A slow start as usual, but the Buckeyes get rolling in the second half and win by 17.
GOTW Record 2006 to Date: 6-3
Last Week: 3-0
Fitzy’s Top 10 – Week 4
1. Ohio State
2. USC
3. Michigan
4. Auburn
5. West Virginia
6. Florida
7. Texas
8. Georgia
9. Louisville
10. TCU
Despite nobody in the Top 10 playing a really tough game (Ohio State has the stiffest competition, and even that is suspect), I think this is the week we see a big upset. Have a great week!
Let’s start by reviewing what happened on the field. Oklahoma had full control of the game and conservatively kicked a field goal in the middle of the fourth quarter to up their lead to 33-20. Oregon got the ball with about 4 minutes left, stormed down the field against OU’s prevent defense, and scored a touchdown with 1:20 left to play. The onside kick went nine or ten yards before being touched by a player, and Oregon was ruled to have the ball. The replay seemed to show an Oregon player touching the ball somewhere between the 9 and 10 yard mark and Oklahoma coming up with it initially after the first bounce.
After much review, the booth official held that Oklahoma touched the ball first, making the ball live and allowing Oregon to keep possession. This appears to be wrong from the replays, as the only issue appears to be whether the Oregon player touched the ball before it went 10 yards or not. The replay was unclear. Then on the ensuing drive, Oregon got a critical first down on a pass interference call, which was reviewed to see if the pass was tipped at the line of scrimmage (and the replay looked like it was, but not conclusively). The pass interference stood, and Oregon continued to get another TD. Oklahoma returned the ensuing kickoff to the 25 yard line of Oregon and still looked like they were going to escape before they ran the clock down with an inexplicable running play and had the last-second field goal blocked. Oregon wins 34-33.
Now what happened off the field is what I want to discuss. The Pac-10 suspended the officials for a game for bad calls (since at least the replay on the onside kick was decided wrong, at minimum the officials should have said Oregon touched it after 10 yards or they touched it before it went 10, forcing a rekick). Oklahoma’s university president requested that the game and result be erased from the NCAA records. OU coach Bob Stoops stood behind his president, saying the calls were wrong and his kids shouldn’t suffer at the hands of the refs. Now Oklahoma is threatening to cancel their game at Washington in 2008 if the Pac-10 conference continues its policy of using their own officials for home non-conference games. This has gotten absurd, and it is time for everybody to calm down and get over this game.
There are three primary reasons Oklahoma should quit complaining about this game:
1. There are bad calls from time to time; that is the human nature of the game and referees. Without review, these calls would have been made in the best determinations of the referees, and both calls would have been the same. Keep in mind the video replay has to be “conclusive” if a call on the field is to be overturned. While I believe both calls could have been made either way and the replays appeared to show some evidence that both calls should be overturned, I do not know if either replay gave us enough to “conclusively” determine the calls were wrong. Even if they were bad calls, it does not matter, as good teams have to put up with and overcome some adversity like this to succeed over the course of a season.
2. There has been no precedent of games being removed from the record just because of bad calls. To give Oklahoma this concession would be to open a Pandora’s Box of claims for years to come. Every team from national title contenders to teams with no chance (see Illinois, Syracuse, and Temple for example) would begin crying if there were a questionable call near the end of a close game. If this were not such a big storied program like Oklahoma, this probably would not even be a story. Face the facts Oklahoma: you were ranked out of the top 10 all season for a reason, and that reason is that nobody expects you to be better than a middling team in the Big 12. At the end of the day, you still had plenty of opportunities to win this game, including not allowing your field goal at the end to get blocked, but also including the questionable prevent defense and conservative offense in the last half of the fourth quarter. Oklahoma had their chance to win, and this game will not set a precedent of removing games from the record that would only be a huge detriment to the game we love.
3. Third and most importantly, it's just a game! If you are not an Oklahoma player or coach and you have lost sleep over this game, I do not care if you are the biggest OU fan ever...you need to let it go. College football is great because we are so passionate about the games, but at the end of the day, one loss does not ruin a season for a team such as Oklahoma and it certainly will not degrade their elite program reputation. Adrian Peterson still has a great chance to win the Heisman, and overcoming this tough road loss (by one point, which doesn’t look bad) with all your QB problems would be impressive. Despite my earlier assertion that Oklahoma will probably not compete for a Big 12 title, the Sooners are 0-0 in conference play and have every opportunity to run the table and prove me wrong. If that happens, nobody will fault you for your loss if you are the most qualified one-loss team to play in the title game. Oklahoma also did not take any beating in the polls, and Oregon did not gain much. This is because in the end, voters are human too, and we take into consideration how you lost. Yes Oklahoma, you deserved to lose in some respect, but I’ll take your 12-1 team over pretty much all other 11-1 or 12-1 teams at the end of the year. At the end of the day, college football is a game, and sometimes you do not get the breaks. It is painful, but don’t lose sleep because there is always this Saturday...and the next one...and next season.
I apologize to Oklahoma fans if this is a bit harsh, but take a look in the mirror and see how absurd your university has acted this week. A university president should act far more distinguished than a sore loser, and I think more complaining will just hurt the reputation of the university, as well as the football program. Some things are unchangeable no matter how hard you fight (not only losses staying on the record, but also things such as the rule that players cannot enter the pro leagues until after their third year of college). Do not break your contract with Washington for the home-and-home series (the game at Oklahoma already happened) over officials, as some human will have to adjudicate the game, and who cares where their paycheck comes from (they are paid to be neutral). Show class and go prove your worth on the field for the rest of the season, and you will be rewarded for how you handle adversity.
Looking at the games for this week makes me long for last weekend. I know we cannot have seven matchups of top 25 teams playing each other every weekend, but more than one would be nice! Well, since beggars can’t be choosers, I present the not-so-amazing but still interesting top three games of the week!
The first game was a tough choice between a few candidates, but I’ll take Arizona State at California as the third best game of the week. The Pac-10 is a mess behind USC, and the only way to organize teams such as ASU, Cal, and Oregon is seeing them settle it on the field. Both of these teams could be landmines for USC later on, but they need to improve to win this weekend’s game, let alone take on the Trojans. Arizona State QB Rudy Carpenter has looked good in the three ASU wins, but the team should have moved the ball better against a terrible Colorado squad last weekend. Cal is still reeling a little from the punch in the mouth they received from a much-better-than-anticipated Tennessee team on opening weekend. This is the key game for Cal as losing a critical home conference game could tear this team apart, while a win could launch them to a conference title run and confidence. Both teams have strikingly similar stats after three games offensively, but Arizona State has looked a little better on defense. I think this is a game totally dependent on Golden Bear RB Marshawn Lynch, as establishing a running game with clock control will be crucial. I think the homefield advantage is too big for Cal to give up, and so I'll take the Bears by 13.
The second game is the weekly primetime national TV game, that being Notre Dame at Michigan State. The other Michigan team made Brady Quinn and Charlie Weis look silly on their own home field last week. The going gets no easier for the Irish as Michigan State is always a thorn in Notre Dame’s side, especially on the road. MSU won in South Bend last year, and both Quinn and Weis remember the sickening feeling of their first loss last season. Both teams have great leaders at quarterback, as Drew Stanton has similar stats and almost the same abilities as Brady Quinn. Darius Walker and the ND rushing game have not fared well in three games, and Michigan State is especially stout against the run. As long as Michigan State can get some breaks like Michigan did last week and not make big mistakes that have killed coach John L. Smith’s teams in the past, the Spartans look like the favorite. While it feels wrong to pick against a team with all the advantages, including the home field, I just have a feeling that some intangibles will show on Saturday night, and Notre Dame will get back on their feet. I’ll take ND by 3, but I will not be surprised if MSU pulls out a victory.
The game of the week was an easy choice this week, and that would be Penn State visiting national champion favorite Ohio State. Heisman leader QB Troy Smith and hopeful WR Ted Ginn Jr. lead the potent Buckeye offense, but the key to their three blowout victories this season has been the revamped defense. This game does not look that close on paper, but Penn State always makes it close in the Horseshoe and the Nittany Lions were one of two OSU losses last year in a 17-10 slugfest. Penn State needs to improve dramatically on defense as Notre Dame has similar weapons on offense and they sliced up PSU in short order. The Lions win games between these two teams with defense and turnovers (2 turnovers last season led to 10 PSU points while the OSU defense received no turnovers). QB Anthony Morelli and RB Hunt will have their hands full, but the Buckeyes seem to give up a lot of rushing yards if you keep pounding them. The problem is they do not give up the big play, and they tighten up in the red zone. Ohio State might be looking ahead to their tough road game at Iowa next week, but Penn State will not be ignored as OSU would love to avenge both their losses from last season (Texas and PSU) in the first four weeks of the new season. A slow start as usual, but the Buckeyes get rolling in the second half and win by 17.
GOTW Record 2006 to Date: 6-3
Last Week: 3-0
Fitzy’s Top 10 – Week 4
1. Ohio State
2. USC
3. Michigan
4. Auburn
5. West Virginia
6. Florida
7. Texas
8. Georgia
9. Louisville
10. TCU
Despite nobody in the Top 10 playing a really tough game (Ohio State has the stiffest competition, and even that is suspect), I think this is the week we see a big upset. Have a great week!
Wednesday, September 13, 2006
RULE CHANGES: THE GOOD, THE BAD, AND THE UGLY
As we move into perhaps the best overall Saturday of college football this season, it is time to take a look back on the opening of the season. While most were preparing for the Ohio State-Texas showdown last week, I was preparing to take a look at how major rule changes are working in college football this season. I can say with definite sureness that the NCAA has had mixed results on rule changes, so perhaps now is a good time to point out what is the good, what is the bad, and what is the ugly going into the big matchups this weekend.
THE GOOD
I would like to start on a positive note: instant replay! I happened to see the beginnings of this as the Big Ten experimented with the program in 2003, and it has quickly spread to all of college football now. Every play is reviewed, and quite frankly, I have been a lot less frustrated watching games since now the referees rarely miss a big play. Of course this adds length to the game every time a replay occurs and referee judgment calls on penalties cannot be reviewed, but the system works and it gives the game a more fair and professional feel.
Last week Syracuse and Iowa played an unexpected classic that was not over until Iowa stopped the ‘Cuse eight striaght times in overtime from two yards out. The first score of this game was a beautiful touchdown catch in the corner of the endzone by Taj Smith on a third down and goal. Watching it live, I could tell he clearly got both feet in bounds with possession (a pro level catch since you only need one foot in bounds for college), but the referees apparently did not see this well and called the pass incomplete. A review was called for from the booth, and the play was quickly overturned. Syracuse would not score again until the end of regulation, but without this touchdown, the game probably never makes it to overtime. This is one of many examples of a game getting better thanks to the replay system, so we should keep it around.
THE BAD
One change was made to the replay system this season, and that was allowing for one coach’s challenge during the game. This is much like the pro system where you give up a timeout if you are wrong in a challenge (and lose the right to challenge for the rest of the game), but you still have your challenge until you make a wrong call. Mack Brown received a lot of criticism for “wasting” his challenge in the first half and losing a timeout against the Buckeyes. The play was perhaps the most critical turning point of the game, and I do not know if I disagree with Brown’s decision at the time. But nonetheless, he took a lot of flak for using the current system properly, and that shows why this rule change is really unnecessary.
I still do not like this rule because there seems to be no reason for a coach's challenge when the booth reviews each play, and the booth decides on every play if further review is necessary. The only time it seems like a coach’s challenge would be good is if the other team is rushing the next play because they think the previous play will be overturned against them if review happens (and obviously by rushing the play, they take out the possibility of anything but a quick cursory review by the booth). In reality though, if great coaches like Mack Brown are going to be criticized for using this system “when every play is already reviewed by the booth,” then perhaps it should just be removed as needless extravagance. I understand that coaches want to have control over the replay system, but the college system is inherently different from the pro system and a coach's challenge seems like an opportunity just for wasting timeouts and bringing criticism upon themselves.
THE UGLY
Well here we are and I’m sure you know which rule fits into this category: the clock rule changes of 2006. For no reason other than apparently wanting to shorten games or offset the rule changes that have added time to games relatively recently (addition of overtime and instant replay for example), the clock starts more quickly on two occasions: (1) when the ball is kicked on a kickoff as opposed to when it is received, and (2) when the ball is set ready for play after a change of possession. The NCAA also shortened the height of kicking tees to reduce the number of touchbacks, but I think this could be better achieved by moving the kicker back to where the pro kickers tee off from. Nonetheless, the clock rules have been the talk of the town for many reasons.
The justifications the NCAA gave for shortening games drastically were not all that compelling. Is it really a problem for fans that games were averaging three and a half hours? The college game has tried to emulate the pro game in many respects and it does bring good innovations like instant replay, but trying to match the three hour games of the pro leagues is not necessary. While I'm in the stadium, I know I do not mind getting 3.5 hours or more of entertainment when I pay high dollar for tickets, so the only good argument is that the games take up too much TV time. This, in my opinion, is absurd, and statistics show that these minor changes have effectively dropped the number of plays in a game about 15%. Unless teams become much more proficient at rushing the offense out there and getting plays off right away at the beginning of possessions, this will be a detriment to the game in the long run. After we have a full year of statistics to review, it may be time for the fans to cry out for the NCAA to change this rule that currently appears awful.
Don’t get me wrong though, the new clock rules did not make a difference in the outcome of any game, including Texas vs. Ohio State (Mack Brown, I doubt you could have won given another 30 minutes of game time). The rules are what they are, and they do not favor any team, including teams that like to slow the tempo and speed the game up by running the ball a lot. The best teams will still emerge on the field, but I feel robbed of quite a few plays in the name of television and useless post-game shows.
It is funny how sometimes the best games with all of the hype live up to expectations (such as OSU-Texas 2005, USC-Texas 2006, and Boston College winning by one over Clemson last weekend), but other times the biggest games are awful blowouts. The gigantic battle of #1 vs. #2 last week turned out to be one of the most boring big games in a long time. I like good defense as much as the next guy, but the only reason OSU held Texas to 7 is because Texas made mistakes each time they would get into OSU territory. The game could be summed up in three drives: (1) OSU scoring to go up 7-0 after returning a Texas red zone fumble 40 yards, (2) OSU WR Teddy Ginn blows by the Texas coverage at the end of the half to respond to the Texas TD on the last drive 14-7, and (3) OSU LB James Laurinaitis intercepting Texas’s first pass attempt of the second half, leading to a field goal to go up 17-7. The way Texas played the whole game, these three plays put the game out of reach and made for a pretty boring game.
Maybe I downgrade the game when the biggest stories coming out of the game are terrible and unrelated to actual football on the field entirely: (1) Mack Brown complaining about the clock rules, (2) Jim Tressel misquoting his USA Coaches Poll vote, which apparently he does not send in himself, and (3) how foolish Matthew McConaughey looked on national TV doing jumping jacks on the Texas sideline like their own personal cheerleader. Do you realize McConaughey doesn’t believe in wearing deodorant? This guy lives in Texas and does jumping jacks, and I feel bad for the poor Texas players who had to smell that on Saturday. Of course I feel worse when I watch “A Time To Kill” and see McConaughey working up a great sweat as a lawyer in Mississippi within inches of poor Sandra Bullock for what must have been weeks of filming. Well I’ll digress from this point, but it is just one more reason to laugh at how big the hype was for this game in hindsight.
Of course the other huge battles of the day had Georgia shutout South Carolina on their home turf 18-0 and Notre Dame smashing through Penn State 41-17. If you had the pleasure of being in the Midwest or New York area, you had a chance through regional coverage to see one of the true best games of the day in Iowa at Syracuse. The game had few points like the UT-OSU game, but it was always closer and you could really feel the Carrier Dome pulling for the victory Syracuse has not found in many months. The previously mentioned BC-Clemson game was also exciting throughout. My conclusion: despite this being “Showdown Saturday” or “Separation Saturday” because of all the big games, do not forget that sometimes the best games are those just off the radar.
There are arguably seven to eight games of the week possible for my review on what should be a interesting college football Saturday. The eyes of the college football world will certainly gravitate to the SEC starting to have more league play, as this conference always beats up on each other and is very competitive every year. You can take nothing for granted in these games, and all should be good to watch. I did not include Florida-Tennessee in my top three because there are slightly more compelling storylines in the other games, and I did not include Louisville-Miami because Miami lost already this year. Both those games, however, are not to be missed.
My first game of the week is Oklahoma at Oregon. This matchup might involve two teams not currently ranked in the Fab 15, but both teams are one big game (for Oregon it is USC; for Oklahoma it is Texas) from being legitimate national title contenders this season. These teams played two years ago in Norman and last year in the Holiday Bowl, and Oregon will be looking to exact revenge for those two OU wins. Oklahoma has not been impressive on paper or on the field in their two wins this season, but they do have the best running back in the country, Adrian Peterson, going against a weak rushing defense. Oregon is battle tested after going into the lions den at Fresno State and escaping with a victory late last Saturday. This is a chance for Oregon to get national attention and exposure, and I think Ducks RB Jonathan Stewart will have a big week trying to match Peterson’s game. Normally I would take the team with a great rushing and clock management attack, but I cannot help but feel Oregon’s experience from last week’s close call will help them to finally overcome the Sooners. I take UO (meaning the Ducks) by 4.
My second game of the week is (10) Michigan at (3) Notre Dame. The Irish are currently in the annual stretch of games against Big Ten foes (this year PSU, UM, MSU) that usually gives them their first loss. Michigan never plays well in Notre Dame stadium, and this Irish team is a lot better than the past 10 years. Brady Quinn will continue the perfect Heisman campaign (big games almost every week, national TV every week, and a huge national fan following) against a UM squad with potential superstars QB Chad Henne and RB Mike Hart. Hart should have a huge day against the questionable ND defense, and the key will be if the Big Blue defense can pressure and get to Quinn on a regular basis. If Quinn has enough time, he will pick apart the UM defense much like OSU QB Troy Smith has the past two seasons. I think UM is sick of the talk questioning their coach and their team, and they are primed to make a huge national upset on the road in this game. Wolverines by 7.
The best game of the week, of course, comes from the SEC, and that would be (5) LSU visiting (6) Auburn. The Tigers (meaning Auburn) are the trendy pick for an SEC team if any of them make the national title game, and they must win this game to have a realistic chance at that goal. An early loss usually does not hurt, but falling essentially two games behind the next best team in the SEC West (one game and another for head-to-head advantage) would all but kill their hopes to make the SEC title game, which I consider a prerequisite to making the BCS title game. LSU has blown out their first two opponents by identical 45-3 scores, while Auburn has been good at shutting down opponents. LSU QB Jamarcus Russell could go crazy in this game, but I think the Auburn defense will reign him in better than expected. The key will be for Auburn QB Brandon Cox and PK John Vaughn to not make mistakes like last year when Vaughn missed five field goals in a three-point loss. I hate picking against the Bayou Bengals, but I think this is the only game they will lose just based on the intangibles (and assuming Auburn does not make mistakes). Tigers (of Auburn) by 3.
GOTW Record 2006 to Date: 3-3
Last Week: 2-1
Fitzy’s Top 10 – Week 3
1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. USC
4. West Virginia
5. Notre Dame
6. Oklahoma
7. Texas
8. Auburn
9. Florida
10. Michigan
Have a great week everybody, and we’ll see you back here after we figure out the SEC in some regard!
THE GOOD
I would like to start on a positive note: instant replay! I happened to see the beginnings of this as the Big Ten experimented with the program in 2003, and it has quickly spread to all of college football now. Every play is reviewed, and quite frankly, I have been a lot less frustrated watching games since now the referees rarely miss a big play. Of course this adds length to the game every time a replay occurs and referee judgment calls on penalties cannot be reviewed, but the system works and it gives the game a more fair and professional feel.
Last week Syracuse and Iowa played an unexpected classic that was not over until Iowa stopped the ‘Cuse eight striaght times in overtime from two yards out. The first score of this game was a beautiful touchdown catch in the corner of the endzone by Taj Smith on a third down and goal. Watching it live, I could tell he clearly got both feet in bounds with possession (a pro level catch since you only need one foot in bounds for college), but the referees apparently did not see this well and called the pass incomplete. A review was called for from the booth, and the play was quickly overturned. Syracuse would not score again until the end of regulation, but without this touchdown, the game probably never makes it to overtime. This is one of many examples of a game getting better thanks to the replay system, so we should keep it around.
THE BAD
One change was made to the replay system this season, and that was allowing for one coach’s challenge during the game. This is much like the pro system where you give up a timeout if you are wrong in a challenge (and lose the right to challenge for the rest of the game), but you still have your challenge until you make a wrong call. Mack Brown received a lot of criticism for “wasting” his challenge in the first half and losing a timeout against the Buckeyes. The play was perhaps the most critical turning point of the game, and I do not know if I disagree with Brown’s decision at the time. But nonetheless, he took a lot of flak for using the current system properly, and that shows why this rule change is really unnecessary.
I still do not like this rule because there seems to be no reason for a coach's challenge when the booth reviews each play, and the booth decides on every play if further review is necessary. The only time it seems like a coach’s challenge would be good is if the other team is rushing the next play because they think the previous play will be overturned against them if review happens (and obviously by rushing the play, they take out the possibility of anything but a quick cursory review by the booth). In reality though, if great coaches like Mack Brown are going to be criticized for using this system “when every play is already reviewed by the booth,” then perhaps it should just be removed as needless extravagance. I understand that coaches want to have control over the replay system, but the college system is inherently different from the pro system and a coach's challenge seems like an opportunity just for wasting timeouts and bringing criticism upon themselves.
THE UGLY
Well here we are and I’m sure you know which rule fits into this category: the clock rule changes of 2006. For no reason other than apparently wanting to shorten games or offset the rule changes that have added time to games relatively recently (addition of overtime and instant replay for example), the clock starts more quickly on two occasions: (1) when the ball is kicked on a kickoff as opposed to when it is received, and (2) when the ball is set ready for play after a change of possession. The NCAA also shortened the height of kicking tees to reduce the number of touchbacks, but I think this could be better achieved by moving the kicker back to where the pro kickers tee off from. Nonetheless, the clock rules have been the talk of the town for many reasons.
The justifications the NCAA gave for shortening games drastically were not all that compelling. Is it really a problem for fans that games were averaging three and a half hours? The college game has tried to emulate the pro game in many respects and it does bring good innovations like instant replay, but trying to match the three hour games of the pro leagues is not necessary. While I'm in the stadium, I know I do not mind getting 3.5 hours or more of entertainment when I pay high dollar for tickets, so the only good argument is that the games take up too much TV time. This, in my opinion, is absurd, and statistics show that these minor changes have effectively dropped the number of plays in a game about 15%. Unless teams become much more proficient at rushing the offense out there and getting plays off right away at the beginning of possessions, this will be a detriment to the game in the long run. After we have a full year of statistics to review, it may be time for the fans to cry out for the NCAA to change this rule that currently appears awful.
Don’t get me wrong though, the new clock rules did not make a difference in the outcome of any game, including Texas vs. Ohio State (Mack Brown, I doubt you could have won given another 30 minutes of game time). The rules are what they are, and they do not favor any team, including teams that like to slow the tempo and speed the game up by running the ball a lot. The best teams will still emerge on the field, but I feel robbed of quite a few plays in the name of television and useless post-game shows.
It is funny how sometimes the best games with all of the hype live up to expectations (such as OSU-Texas 2005, USC-Texas 2006, and Boston College winning by one over Clemson last weekend), but other times the biggest games are awful blowouts. The gigantic battle of #1 vs. #2 last week turned out to be one of the most boring big games in a long time. I like good defense as much as the next guy, but the only reason OSU held Texas to 7 is because Texas made mistakes each time they would get into OSU territory. The game could be summed up in three drives: (1) OSU scoring to go up 7-0 after returning a Texas red zone fumble 40 yards, (2) OSU WR Teddy Ginn blows by the Texas coverage at the end of the half to respond to the Texas TD on the last drive 14-7, and (3) OSU LB James Laurinaitis intercepting Texas’s first pass attempt of the second half, leading to a field goal to go up 17-7. The way Texas played the whole game, these three plays put the game out of reach and made for a pretty boring game.
Maybe I downgrade the game when the biggest stories coming out of the game are terrible and unrelated to actual football on the field entirely: (1) Mack Brown complaining about the clock rules, (2) Jim Tressel misquoting his USA Coaches Poll vote, which apparently he does not send in himself, and (3) how foolish Matthew McConaughey looked on national TV doing jumping jacks on the Texas sideline like their own personal cheerleader. Do you realize McConaughey doesn’t believe in wearing deodorant? This guy lives in Texas and does jumping jacks, and I feel bad for the poor Texas players who had to smell that on Saturday. Of course I feel worse when I watch “A Time To Kill” and see McConaughey working up a great sweat as a lawyer in Mississippi within inches of poor Sandra Bullock for what must have been weeks of filming. Well I’ll digress from this point, but it is just one more reason to laugh at how big the hype was for this game in hindsight.
Of course the other huge battles of the day had Georgia shutout South Carolina on their home turf 18-0 and Notre Dame smashing through Penn State 41-17. If you had the pleasure of being in the Midwest or New York area, you had a chance through regional coverage to see one of the true best games of the day in Iowa at Syracuse. The game had few points like the UT-OSU game, but it was always closer and you could really feel the Carrier Dome pulling for the victory Syracuse has not found in many months. The previously mentioned BC-Clemson game was also exciting throughout. My conclusion: despite this being “Showdown Saturday” or “Separation Saturday” because of all the big games, do not forget that sometimes the best games are those just off the radar.
There are arguably seven to eight games of the week possible for my review on what should be a interesting college football Saturday. The eyes of the college football world will certainly gravitate to the SEC starting to have more league play, as this conference always beats up on each other and is very competitive every year. You can take nothing for granted in these games, and all should be good to watch. I did not include Florida-Tennessee in my top three because there are slightly more compelling storylines in the other games, and I did not include Louisville-Miami because Miami lost already this year. Both those games, however, are not to be missed.
My first game of the week is Oklahoma at Oregon. This matchup might involve two teams not currently ranked in the Fab 15, but both teams are one big game (for Oregon it is USC; for Oklahoma it is Texas) from being legitimate national title contenders this season. These teams played two years ago in Norman and last year in the Holiday Bowl, and Oregon will be looking to exact revenge for those two OU wins. Oklahoma has not been impressive on paper or on the field in their two wins this season, but they do have the best running back in the country, Adrian Peterson, going against a weak rushing defense. Oregon is battle tested after going into the lions den at Fresno State and escaping with a victory late last Saturday. This is a chance for Oregon to get national attention and exposure, and I think Ducks RB Jonathan Stewart will have a big week trying to match Peterson’s game. Normally I would take the team with a great rushing and clock management attack, but I cannot help but feel Oregon’s experience from last week’s close call will help them to finally overcome the Sooners. I take UO (meaning the Ducks) by 4.
My second game of the week is (10) Michigan at (3) Notre Dame. The Irish are currently in the annual stretch of games against Big Ten foes (this year PSU, UM, MSU) that usually gives them their first loss. Michigan never plays well in Notre Dame stadium, and this Irish team is a lot better than the past 10 years. Brady Quinn will continue the perfect Heisman campaign (big games almost every week, national TV every week, and a huge national fan following) against a UM squad with potential superstars QB Chad Henne and RB Mike Hart. Hart should have a huge day against the questionable ND defense, and the key will be if the Big Blue defense can pressure and get to Quinn on a regular basis. If Quinn has enough time, he will pick apart the UM defense much like OSU QB Troy Smith has the past two seasons. I think UM is sick of the talk questioning their coach and their team, and they are primed to make a huge national upset on the road in this game. Wolverines by 7.
The best game of the week, of course, comes from the SEC, and that would be (5) LSU visiting (6) Auburn. The Tigers (meaning Auburn) are the trendy pick for an SEC team if any of them make the national title game, and they must win this game to have a realistic chance at that goal. An early loss usually does not hurt, but falling essentially two games behind the next best team in the SEC West (one game and another for head-to-head advantage) would all but kill their hopes to make the SEC title game, which I consider a prerequisite to making the BCS title game. LSU has blown out their first two opponents by identical 45-3 scores, while Auburn has been good at shutting down opponents. LSU QB Jamarcus Russell could go crazy in this game, but I think the Auburn defense will reign him in better than expected. The key will be for Auburn QB Brandon Cox and PK John Vaughn to not make mistakes like last year when Vaughn missed five field goals in a three-point loss. I hate picking against the Bayou Bengals, but I think this is the only game they will lose just based on the intangibles (and assuming Auburn does not make mistakes). Tigers (of Auburn) by 3.
GOTW Record 2006 to Date: 3-3
Last Week: 2-1
Fitzy’s Top 10 – Week 3
1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. USC
4. West Virginia
5. Notre Dame
6. Oklahoma
7. Texas
8. Auburn
9. Florida
10. Michigan
Have a great week everybody, and we’ll see you back here after we figure out the SEC in some regard!
Thursday, September 7, 2006
DÉJÀ VU: EVERYTHING IS BIGGER IN TEXAS
Last season on September 10, 2005, #4 Ohio State welcomed #2 Texas into the marquee game of the regular season. Most experts said the loser would probably be eliminated from the national title hunt, but the winner would be a frontrunner to run the table and play (presumably at the time) streaking USC in the Rose Bowl. What happened was nothing short of a classic, and would have been the most memorable game of last season if not for USC's heroics at Notre Dame and the Rose Bowl heroics of Texas QB Vince Young.
Ohio State switched quarterbacks every two drives, as Troy Smith (suspended in the first game against Miami-OH) slowly reclaimed the starting spot from Justin Zwick, while Texas had definite leadership in Vince Young. Every time it seemed the Buckeyes would get momentum, Texas would get a stop and hold the Bucks to a field goal, or the switching QB system would disrupt the offense.
Texas raced out to a 10-0 first quarter lead, which was answered by four consecutive scores for the Buckeyes in the second quarter to lead 16-10. A long kickoff return at the end of the first half allowed Texas to get a field goal before the break to cut the deficit to 3. Both offenses sputtered in the red zone in the third quarter and kicked successful field goals, leading to a 22-16 OSU lead at the end of three. The Buckeyes dropped a wide open touchdown pass on one of these drives, costing them a two-score lead.
With about five minutes left in the game, OSU kicker Josh Huston (5/5 on the day) had an opportunity to put the game away when he missed a 50-yard field goal. Vince Young then lead a heroic 65-yard drive in just under three minutes, capping the drive with a beautiful fade-away 24 yard pass in the corner to Limas Sweed to put the Horns up 23-22. A safety in irrelevant time provided the final score 25-22 Texas.
As the experts predicted, this launched Texas not only to the title game against USC but also to a national title, while eliminating Ohio State. With the exception of a tough (night, rain, freezing) loss for Ohio State three weeks later at Penn State, neither team would lose again.
This week brings the rematch of the most anticipated non-conference game from last season, and this season it will be even bigger (which makes sense, considering the game is in Texas). The top ranked Buckeyes come in to play the second ranked Longhorns, and the implications of the game are similar to last season. The winner will not only take over the top spot in all the national polls and BCS projections, but both teams have a reasonable shot at running the table if they get through this game. As a firsthand witness of OSU-UT last season, I can definitely say I saw one of the best games of all time at Ohio Stadium, and I would surmise this year would be similar for Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Even if you cannot get to Austin to see the game, the prime time national telecast should be a great opportunity to see it. Other writers on SCS.com have discussed this game already this week, but another in-depth look is required for this game of the week, and game of the year.
Let’s start with the most anticipated matchup of the game: the vaunted Buckeye offense against the strong Longhorn defense. Ohio State is very similar to last season’s Texas squad, with senior leadership coming from dual-threat quarterback Troy Smith, who grabbed the starting job after the Texas game last season and never looked back. The only significant loss from this offense was WR Santonio Holmes, but Heisman candidate speed-demon Ted Ginn Jr. (123 yards on 4 receptions, 2 TD against NIU) and Anthony Gonzalez (53 yards on 4 receptions, 1 TD) will step up easily to replace Holmes. This offense rolled over every defense it played last season after the Penn State game, including victories against powerhouses Iowa, Michigan, and Notre Dame. The Buckeyes picked up right where they left off a year ago last weekend against Northern Illinois, scoring touchdowns on each of their first four possessions and ending up with 488 yards of offense against MAC favorite Northern Illinois.
The Texas defense is mostly intact from last season though, and they held North Texas to 8 yards rushing and 95 yards of total offense last week. The Buckeyes are a whole different breed of offense though. The key to this game might be the line battle here, as Texas seniors will look to dominate the OSU line to get much-needed pressure on Troy Smith and stop the powerful running game featuring Antonio Pittman (111 yards on 19 carries against NIU) and Chris Wells (50 yards on 10 carries). Smith also had three touchdown passes before throwing an incomplete pass, and the good fortune could continue as Texas will be without their shutdown corner Tarrel Brown to slow Ted Ginn Jr.
As proven at Michigan last season, the Buckeyes know how to win in tough situations on the road using their offense now, so the loss of Brown might prove to be the achilles heel of the Longhorns in this contest. The only reason to believe Texas will stop OSU is that this defense has played against an even better offense, led by a similar quarterback (Young), the past three seasons in practice.
The other side of this game is also very interesting, if not talked about as much. Texas really did not lose anything besides Vince Young on offense, but rookie Colt McCoy stepped right up and had 178 yards and three touchdowns passing, as well as 38 yards on 4 rushes with one touchdown. You would think McCoy will be alright based on having all this talent around him, but North Texas is not even in the same league as Ohio State defensively. Ohio State is perhaps the only team in history to lose nine defensive starters (including two first round draft picks and a handful of others starting for pro teams this season) and come into the next season as a consensus preseason number 1. The Buckeyes can certainly hope to outscore other teams, but they would not be ranked number one in a normal year where the national title race is not so wide open with all top teams having major flaws.
The young but talented defense is still a question mark after the top returning RB in the nation, Garrett Wolfe, gained 171 yards on 26 carries and 114 yards on 5 receptions last week. This is only troubling because NIU is a one-man show, and the Buckeyes should have had better focus in stopping Wolfe. Texas has many weapons, and it all begins with the running game featuring two dangerous backs, Jamaal Charles (77 yards and 1 TD in 14 carries against UNT) and Selvin Young (44 yards and 1 TD in 12 carries). WR Limas Sweed will keep the new Buckeye backfield busy, as he is a very talented top target for Colt McCoy to throw to. The key here will be how involved the inexperienced Buckeye linebackers can be at pressuring McCoy, covering receivers in passing situations, and stopping the great Texas running back duo. The questionable young OSU defense will be fully battle tested for the whole world to see Saturday night, and this is also a great opportunity for Colt McCoy to prove himself.
There are always intangibles in every game, and this battle is no exception. One crucial advantage of Coach Tressel’s OSU teams of the past has been the great special teams units featuring PK Josh Huston and Mike Nugent. This season might be the first time they struggle in this arena, as new kicker Aaron Pettrey missed both of his field goal tries against NIU. Texas has an advantage here with an experienced transfer PK Greg Johnson. Certainly the Buckeyes will hope to not need a FG to lock up the game like last year, where super-talented Huston missed his chance to put the game away.
The coaches are about dead-even, as Mack Brown proved he can coach the big game against OSU and USC last season. Jim Tressel also has a national title under his belt, and I would give him the play-calling advantage if not for his Buckeyes being completely different than his usual successful teams (conservative offense, silver bullet strong defense, and superior special teams).
The home field advantage is important as Texas has won 36 of its last 37 at home, but OSU had a huge advantage in that department last season and lost. Both teams know how to play in very loud environments, so that should not be a problem for the Buckeyes. The weather forecast is supposed to be around 100 degrees and humid in Texas, which favors the Longhorns since the Ohio summer heat and humidity is not nearly that bad. If this game turns into a horserace of offenses, expect Texas to have the advantage as OSU will probably tire faster in this weather.
The bottom line: losing CB Tarrel Brown will have a significant effect, just like having Troy Smith coming back from his suspension and having to share time with Zwick last season. I visited Dallas on a job interview this week, and all the Longhorn grads I interviewed with are very excited about the first number one ranked visitor to come to Austin in 50 years. Texas fans are not ready to give up the national title or their winning streak, so they will truly be out in force. The revenge factor is strong, and the home field advantage will be nullified a little bit as OSU fans are traveling very well to this game; furthermore, the OSU band will make the trip thanks to a huge generous donation for the trip expenses. Having the band and more road fans than usual will help keep the morale high on the Buckeye sideline, even if things go sour early.
If the game is close, you have to give the advantage to the Buckeyes simply based on leadership. Troy Smith is just like Vince Young last season, and he will step up more quickly than rookie Colt McCoy in the pressure situations on Saturday. Make no mistake about it: this game will be as close as last year’s three-point decision. With that being the case and with Texas missing their leaders form last season on both sides of the ball (to suspension and graduation), I have to pick the Buckeyes by four points in this instant classic.
The first week of the season had mostly blowouts, but lots of great games like Florida State defeating Miami. Just like last season, I am starting under .500 on my picks of the top 3 games of the week (Georgia Tech was a legitimate pick over Notre Dame, and I was not disappointed with their effort). Hopefully I can start the turnaround this week and my second game of the week is (12) Penn State at (4) Notre Dame. The Irish are not as good as advertised, and this is yet another opportunity in a tough September schedule to falter. Penn State has a better defense than Georgia Tech, but the Notre Dame defense looked good against GT and should have no more problems with the Nittany Lions. Assuming Brady Quinn and company finally get into a groove at home, I think Notre Dame takes this game by 10.
My final game of the week is Clemson at Boston College. Despite FSU’s win over Miami, Clemson is still my favorite to come out of this ACC division. To accomplish this ACC title game appearance, Clemson must take care of their main competitors, FSU and BC. Boston College looked to have some weaknesses against Central Michigan, while Clemson rolled against weakling Florida Atlantic. I expect Boston College to be better battle-tested, and perhaps this will be enough to stop the Tigers in their home stadium. I doubt either team’s defense can stop the good offenses on both sides, but Clemson seems like the better bet in a shootout. I’ll take the Tigers by 7.
2006 year-to-date GOTW picking record: 1-2
Last Week: 1-2
Fitzy’s Top 10 – Week 2
1. Ohio State
2. Texas
3. LSU
4. West Virginia
5. USC
6. Oklahoma
7. Notre Dame
8. Penn State
9. Auburn
10. Florida
Have a great weekend everyone, and don’t forget to tune in and see the game of the year on Saturday night! The beginning of a long road to clear up the real national title contenders starts this week, and Notre Dame, as well as the top two teams in the country, are in jeopardy this week. See you next week!
Ohio State switched quarterbacks every two drives, as Troy Smith (suspended in the first game against Miami-OH) slowly reclaimed the starting spot from Justin Zwick, while Texas had definite leadership in Vince Young. Every time it seemed the Buckeyes would get momentum, Texas would get a stop and hold the Bucks to a field goal, or the switching QB system would disrupt the offense.
Texas raced out to a 10-0 first quarter lead, which was answered by four consecutive scores for the Buckeyes in the second quarter to lead 16-10. A long kickoff return at the end of the first half allowed Texas to get a field goal before the break to cut the deficit to 3. Both offenses sputtered in the red zone in the third quarter and kicked successful field goals, leading to a 22-16 OSU lead at the end of three. The Buckeyes dropped a wide open touchdown pass on one of these drives, costing them a two-score lead.
With about five minutes left in the game, OSU kicker Josh Huston (5/5 on the day) had an opportunity to put the game away when he missed a 50-yard field goal. Vince Young then lead a heroic 65-yard drive in just under three minutes, capping the drive with a beautiful fade-away 24 yard pass in the corner to Limas Sweed to put the Horns up 23-22. A safety in irrelevant time provided the final score 25-22 Texas.
As the experts predicted, this launched Texas not only to the title game against USC but also to a national title, while eliminating Ohio State. With the exception of a tough (night, rain, freezing) loss for Ohio State three weeks later at Penn State, neither team would lose again.
This week brings the rematch of the most anticipated non-conference game from last season, and this season it will be even bigger (which makes sense, considering the game is in Texas). The top ranked Buckeyes come in to play the second ranked Longhorns, and the implications of the game are similar to last season. The winner will not only take over the top spot in all the national polls and BCS projections, but both teams have a reasonable shot at running the table if they get through this game. As a firsthand witness of OSU-UT last season, I can definitely say I saw one of the best games of all time at Ohio Stadium, and I would surmise this year would be similar for Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Even if you cannot get to Austin to see the game, the prime time national telecast should be a great opportunity to see it. Other writers on SCS.com have discussed this game already this week, but another in-depth look is required for this game of the week, and game of the year.
Let’s start with the most anticipated matchup of the game: the vaunted Buckeye offense against the strong Longhorn defense. Ohio State is very similar to last season’s Texas squad, with senior leadership coming from dual-threat quarterback Troy Smith, who grabbed the starting job after the Texas game last season and never looked back. The only significant loss from this offense was WR Santonio Holmes, but Heisman candidate speed-demon Ted Ginn Jr. (123 yards on 4 receptions, 2 TD against NIU) and Anthony Gonzalez (53 yards on 4 receptions, 1 TD) will step up easily to replace Holmes. This offense rolled over every defense it played last season after the Penn State game, including victories against powerhouses Iowa, Michigan, and Notre Dame. The Buckeyes picked up right where they left off a year ago last weekend against Northern Illinois, scoring touchdowns on each of their first four possessions and ending up with 488 yards of offense against MAC favorite Northern Illinois.
The Texas defense is mostly intact from last season though, and they held North Texas to 8 yards rushing and 95 yards of total offense last week. The Buckeyes are a whole different breed of offense though. The key to this game might be the line battle here, as Texas seniors will look to dominate the OSU line to get much-needed pressure on Troy Smith and stop the powerful running game featuring Antonio Pittman (111 yards on 19 carries against NIU) and Chris Wells (50 yards on 10 carries). Smith also had three touchdown passes before throwing an incomplete pass, and the good fortune could continue as Texas will be without their shutdown corner Tarrel Brown to slow Ted Ginn Jr.
As proven at Michigan last season, the Buckeyes know how to win in tough situations on the road using their offense now, so the loss of Brown might prove to be the achilles heel of the Longhorns in this contest. The only reason to believe Texas will stop OSU is that this defense has played against an even better offense, led by a similar quarterback (Young), the past three seasons in practice.
The other side of this game is also very interesting, if not talked about as much. Texas really did not lose anything besides Vince Young on offense, but rookie Colt McCoy stepped right up and had 178 yards and three touchdowns passing, as well as 38 yards on 4 rushes with one touchdown. You would think McCoy will be alright based on having all this talent around him, but North Texas is not even in the same league as Ohio State defensively. Ohio State is perhaps the only team in history to lose nine defensive starters (including two first round draft picks and a handful of others starting for pro teams this season) and come into the next season as a consensus preseason number 1. The Buckeyes can certainly hope to outscore other teams, but they would not be ranked number one in a normal year where the national title race is not so wide open with all top teams having major flaws.
The young but talented defense is still a question mark after the top returning RB in the nation, Garrett Wolfe, gained 171 yards on 26 carries and 114 yards on 5 receptions last week. This is only troubling because NIU is a one-man show, and the Buckeyes should have had better focus in stopping Wolfe. Texas has many weapons, and it all begins with the running game featuring two dangerous backs, Jamaal Charles (77 yards and 1 TD in 14 carries against UNT) and Selvin Young (44 yards and 1 TD in 12 carries). WR Limas Sweed will keep the new Buckeye backfield busy, as he is a very talented top target for Colt McCoy to throw to. The key here will be how involved the inexperienced Buckeye linebackers can be at pressuring McCoy, covering receivers in passing situations, and stopping the great Texas running back duo. The questionable young OSU defense will be fully battle tested for the whole world to see Saturday night, and this is also a great opportunity for Colt McCoy to prove himself.
There are always intangibles in every game, and this battle is no exception. One crucial advantage of Coach Tressel’s OSU teams of the past has been the great special teams units featuring PK Josh Huston and Mike Nugent. This season might be the first time they struggle in this arena, as new kicker Aaron Pettrey missed both of his field goal tries against NIU. Texas has an advantage here with an experienced transfer PK Greg Johnson. Certainly the Buckeyes will hope to not need a FG to lock up the game like last year, where super-talented Huston missed his chance to put the game away.
The coaches are about dead-even, as Mack Brown proved he can coach the big game against OSU and USC last season. Jim Tressel also has a national title under his belt, and I would give him the play-calling advantage if not for his Buckeyes being completely different than his usual successful teams (conservative offense, silver bullet strong defense, and superior special teams).
The home field advantage is important as Texas has won 36 of its last 37 at home, but OSU had a huge advantage in that department last season and lost. Both teams know how to play in very loud environments, so that should not be a problem for the Buckeyes. The weather forecast is supposed to be around 100 degrees and humid in Texas, which favors the Longhorns since the Ohio summer heat and humidity is not nearly that bad. If this game turns into a horserace of offenses, expect Texas to have the advantage as OSU will probably tire faster in this weather.
The bottom line: losing CB Tarrel Brown will have a significant effect, just like having Troy Smith coming back from his suspension and having to share time with Zwick last season. I visited Dallas on a job interview this week, and all the Longhorn grads I interviewed with are very excited about the first number one ranked visitor to come to Austin in 50 years. Texas fans are not ready to give up the national title or their winning streak, so they will truly be out in force. The revenge factor is strong, and the home field advantage will be nullified a little bit as OSU fans are traveling very well to this game; furthermore, the OSU band will make the trip thanks to a huge generous donation for the trip expenses. Having the band and more road fans than usual will help keep the morale high on the Buckeye sideline, even if things go sour early.
If the game is close, you have to give the advantage to the Buckeyes simply based on leadership. Troy Smith is just like Vince Young last season, and he will step up more quickly than rookie Colt McCoy in the pressure situations on Saturday. Make no mistake about it: this game will be as close as last year’s three-point decision. With that being the case and with Texas missing their leaders form last season on both sides of the ball (to suspension and graduation), I have to pick the Buckeyes by four points in this instant classic.
The first week of the season had mostly blowouts, but lots of great games like Florida State defeating Miami. Just like last season, I am starting under .500 on my picks of the top 3 games of the week (Georgia Tech was a legitimate pick over Notre Dame, and I was not disappointed with their effort). Hopefully I can start the turnaround this week and my second game of the week is (12) Penn State at (4) Notre Dame. The Irish are not as good as advertised, and this is yet another opportunity in a tough September schedule to falter. Penn State has a better defense than Georgia Tech, but the Notre Dame defense looked good against GT and should have no more problems with the Nittany Lions. Assuming Brady Quinn and company finally get into a groove at home, I think Notre Dame takes this game by 10.
My final game of the week is Clemson at Boston College. Despite FSU’s win over Miami, Clemson is still my favorite to come out of this ACC division. To accomplish this ACC title game appearance, Clemson must take care of their main competitors, FSU and BC. Boston College looked to have some weaknesses against Central Michigan, while Clemson rolled against weakling Florida Atlantic. I expect Boston College to be better battle-tested, and perhaps this will be enough to stop the Tigers in their home stadium. I doubt either team’s defense can stop the good offenses on both sides, but Clemson seems like the better bet in a shootout. I’ll take the Tigers by 7.
2006 year-to-date GOTW picking record: 1-2
Last Week: 1-2
Fitzy’s Top 10 – Week 2
1. Ohio State
2. Texas
3. LSU
4. West Virginia
5. USC
6. Oklahoma
7. Notre Dame
8. Penn State
9. Auburn
10. Florida
Have a great weekend everyone, and don’t forget to tune in and see the game of the year on Saturday night! The beginning of a long road to clear up the real national title contenders starts this week, and Notre Dame, as well as the top two teams in the country, are in jeopardy this week. See you next week!
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