Thursday, September 24, 2009

Conference Call - The Battle For Supremacy Begins

Although every part of the country and each year is different, the air has begun to grab that autumn chill to herald the arrival of conference play. While big inter-sectional games in September are fun, there's a whole new level of intensity when the opponents are familiar. These teams see you every season and they know exactly what makes you tick. Over the course of time it is inevitable that even the lowliest of conference opposition will at least push the best teams in the conference for 55-60 minutes. A perfect example of this was USC dropping a game to Washington, a team who did not win a game last year. There's no gimmes anymore for the national title contenders, especially when they hit the road.

The UW-USC game brings up another interesting point. I cannot remember a time in the past couple of decades where so many high profile teams were dealing with serious injuries to key players. Oklahoma and USC were listed among the four sure-fire elites going into the season, but three weeks in the books and both have had injuries and subsequent losses. Oklahoma has been the most seriously hit with their Heisman winning quarterback Sam Bradford out for a month and his favorite target TE Jermaine Gresham gone for the season. Oklahoma will definitely struggle to keep up with Texas and Oklahoma State this year. USC only had temporary losses in QB Matt Barkley and FS Taylor Mays, but that was enough to let USC lose focus and lose to Washington. Notre Dame will need to find some young receiving talent to step up to replace Michael Floyd. All of these teams could very well be out of national title contention due to injuries, and all of a sudden, we have a whole new ballgame beyond just Texas and Florida.

A week after the epic Florida State - Miami showdown, the luster seemed to be off the theory that both were vastly improved after the Hurricanes had a bye and the Seminoles barely beat an FCS team. However, the perception swapped right back to great with Florida State's beatdown of BYU and Miami's dominance of Georgia Tech. Perhaps there's a lot more to the state of Florida than the Gators, which would be the first time since the early part of this decade that all three teams are relevant. Miami should be the unquestioned number one team in the country if they can navigate the next two games against Virginia Tech and Oklahoma, even with the aforementioned injuries at OU. More on the Hurricanes later as this week's matchup is the second truly must-see matchup of the season. The ACC comes into conference play with some bangs and bruises as only North Carolina and Miami remain undefeated. Still, the ACC is poised to remain as competitive as it was last year yet have teams on a higher level overall.

It's highly doubtful that anybody anticipated the losses by both Oklahoma teams this early, but the door is open for Texas, Texas Tech, Missouri, Kansas, and Nebraska to step up and compete for the BCS. Colorado looked like a contender coming into 2009 but very well may be the worst team in the conference. It is clear that Missouri and Oklahoma will be highly challenged if they want to meet each other for the third straight year in the conference championship.

The Big Ten has suffered in the national media because they have struggled on the bowl scene and in big games the past few years. The best thing that could happen for the Big Ten may be only sending one team to the BCS, but the Big Ten has sent the maximum two teams nine out of the past eleven years. This means the already tough bowl matchups get even harder as every team must move up to the next bowl when the BCS takes two. The resurgence of Michigan is the biggest story headed into conference play, but this should be a three team show between Iowa, Penn State, and Ohio State. The first big test comes Saturday night as Iowa heads to Happy Valley.

The Pacific 10 seemed like same old same old with USC coming in as the dominating favorite. However, the Trojans are lucky to not be 1-2 after getting dominated by the Buckeyes and then getting beat by the Huskies. California has an amazing ball-control offense with Heisman contender RB Javhid Best and nabbed a huge win at Minnesota last week to become the new conference favorite. Despite some early hiccups, Oregon and Oregon State should also compete while UCLA and Stanford make some noise as well. The Pac-10 has USC in last place in the conference standings, which may be the best thing that can happen for conference fans.

The SEC flexed its muscle as usual in out-of-conference play, including in the high profile Alabama-Virginia Tech game. Florida looks very vulnerable all of a sudden and Oklahoma and USC have already proved this season will not go as the prognosticators guessed. Alabama will definitely contend and Mississippi, LSU, and Auburn hae all bagged impressive starts as well. Florida can probably still be penciled in for an SEC championship, but the winner of the West will be more than a mere bump in the road for the Gators.

The Big East brings up the rear in many BCS discussions, and I suppose placing them out of order pigeonholes them in this article too. However, this conference race is much simpler than the others. West Virginia showed some glaring issues at Auburn, South Florida will fall off the map without QB Matt Grothe, and Rutgers was blown off the face of New Jersey in week 1. Pittsburgh has had a good start, but this season has now become all about whether defending conference champion Cincinnati can run the table and perhaps make a surprise appearance in the National Championship. That would be quite a coup for a much-maligned conference.

The first game of the week is TCU at Clemson. The Horned Frogs have already been to ACC country to beat Virginia, but Clemson is a whole new level of competition. TCU has a very strong rushing attack led by Joseph Turner, but the Clemson front seven should be up to the task of slowing down this offense. On the other side of the ball, RB C.J. Spiller is off to a good start and will also churn up some clock and some yards against the Horned Frogs. This game should be relatively fast-paced because both teams would like to establish the tun first. Death Valley is a mighty tough palce to play, but Clemson is still a little overmatched by the Horned Frogs in this one. TCU wins by 10.

The second game of the week is the primetime battle between Iowa and Penn State. The Hawkeyes did struggle to beat the FCS Northern Iowa in week 1, but since then have been very dominant in beating two BCS schools while Penn State has beaten up on nobody as usual. The Nittany Lions were ambushed in Iowa City last year, but this game has been circled for revenge in Happy Valley since last November. Nevertheless, Iowa will be a game opponent as the new freshman duo rusing attack of Brandon Wegher and Adam Robinson will challenge the backup linebackers Penn State is having to play due to injuries. Penn State is also very questionable on the offensive line, and it will be very interesting to see if the three games of preseason-level competition have prepared the Nittany Lions to push back and protect against Iowa's defensive front. The makings of an upset are right there on the table again, but Penn State will only be knocked off at home by a superior team, and Iowa is not quite that good this year. PSU wins by 7.

The top game of the week is undoubtedly Miami at Virginia Tech. The last time these two teams were elite at the same time, the two combatants were playing for Big East titles. However, the ACC is happy to have both teams in the spotlight again and this is a huge opportunity for both teams. Virginia Tech was posied to perhaps go undefeated before the loss against a tough Alabama team, but beating an up-and-coming Miami squad would put the Hokies back in the driver's seat for a BCS berth if nothing else. Miami is in that brutal stretch listed above, but at 2-0 this is a chance to become a national power again in familiar Blacksburg. The Miami offense is led by QB Jacory Harris, who is throwing for over 300 yards per game against quality defenses. Virginia Tech will not be excited to see another wide-open attack, but the battles against Alabama and Nebraska can only help the Hokies now. Tyrod Taylor should have more room to make plays against the Hurricane defense, but expect Miami to throw lots of blitzes and hidden coverages to try and force some mistakes. Although every instinct tells me to go with the Hokies on this one, let's go against the gut and try and improve on the lackluster 4-5 start with an upset. Miami wins by 3.

2009 GOTW Record: 4-5
Last Week: 1-2

Fitz Top 10 - Week 3
1. Florida (3-0)
2. Alabama (3-0)
3. Texas (3-0)
4. Boise State (3-0)
5. California (3-0)
6. Penn State (3-0)
7. Mississippi (2-0)
8. TCU (2-0)
9. LSU (3-0)
10. Oklahoma (2-1)

Just Missed: USC, Ohio State, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, Miami

There are a lot of undefeated teams left out there three weeks in, but expect many of these to fall by the wayside quickly with stronger and more familiar opponents in conference play. In about three weeks we'll reach the halfway point and start to formulate the picture for how the BCS and national championship pictures will shape up in October and November. For right now, we only have to enjoy the journey as the unexpected continues to happen every weekend. See you next week!

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Early Success - A Mirage or a Sign of Things to Come?

The venue was two of the largest stadiums in America, the Big House and the Horseshoe, two freshman quarterback grew up in front of our eyes Saturday. Two weeks ago, Tate Forcier was in a three-way battle for a starting position and ended up splitting time with a running quarterback perhaps more suited to Rich Rodriguez's offense. Meanwhile in Los Angeles, Matt Barkley was overcoming the veteran Aaron Corp for a starting position everyone thought Corp had wrapped up weeks ago. In Week 1 both Forcier and Barkley were successful against inferior competition, but the spotlight came quickly in Week 2 of their young careers. Forcier's task was taking on a ranked Notre Dame team at home with tons of talent, while Barkley was tasked with facing 106,000 hostile fans at Ohio State. All signs pointed to failure.

But then, something amazing happened. In the late afternoon, Notre Dame had stormed back behind Jimmy Clausen to two touchdowns in four minutes of the fourth quarter to take a 34-31 lead. Then the Wolverines wilted on their possession with five minutes left and punted the ball deep to Notre Dame, which looked like game over. But then, Notre Dame failed to run out the clock and offered Forcier one more chance with two minutes left and 57 yards to drive. Forcier was brilliant in the two-minute drill, avoiding pressure and tossing accurate balls to his talented wide receivers. Forcier then finished the drive with a 5-yard touchdown pass to Greg Matthews, and Michigan crushed all the hearts of the Irish with 11 seconds to go. Although the final drive was conducted aat his home stadium, Forcier put up monster numbers of 22 for 33 with 240 yards and 2 touchdowns passing, as well as 70 yards and a touchdown rushing. There's now absolutely no doubt Forcier is the quarterback Rodriguez has sought and will be the Michigan man of the future.

Then the true entree of the football schedule hit the airwaves, USC at Ohio State. The crazed Buckeye crowd was larger and louder than ever seen before, with ten hours of tailgating to prepare for another momentus game. For fifty-four minutes, the crowd rattled in Matt Barkley's ears as USC struggled to put up the 10 points they had. However, the Buckeyes failed to capitalize on their dominating field position, and USC received a punt at their own 14 yard line with just over five minutes to go. Barkley walked into the huddle with a smile on his face and put the ball into his best playmaker's hands in RB Joe McKnight. McKnight made some amazing plays against the defense that had stuffed Barkley and company all day, and Barkley managed the drive like a pro. When the drive was punctuated with a 2 yard touchdown by Stafon Johnson with a minute to go, Barkley had silenced the crowd and the critics who said he was not ready. In the toughest environment Barkley may see in all three or four of his years at USC, he pulled his team to an epic victory. The kicker in this game was that Barkley sustained a shoulder bruise in the third quarter on his throwing arm in a similar tackle that put Heisman winner Sam Bradford out a week earlier, but Barkley never left the game or the spotlight despite this problem.

While the performances were a great start, the question remains: is this just a mirage or a sign of things to come? In the case of Tate Forcier, this kid is the real deal. Michigan will not be undefeated or in a BCS bowl this year, but a lot of teams will be knocked around in the Big Ten by the renewed Wolverines. Although Forcier will likely still see some split time with the better runner Denard Robinson, even without his shoes tied, Forcier has locked up the majority of future playing time because he brings a true dual-threat package. In Rodriguez's offense that will only get better with 1-2 more recruiting classes, Forcier will continue to put up monster games and be a nightmare for defenses to prepare for. Forcier is the real deal. As for Barkley, at this point the success is but a mirage. USC quarterbacks have a habit of going onto great things in the Carroll era, as Mark Sanchez, Matt Leinart, and Carson Palmer are Sunday regulars. I have little doubt Barkley will eventually become a high-quality pro prospect under Carroll's offense and tutelage. However, Barkley is not making any great plays, just managing a game and limiting his mistakes. Barkley will look good because of McKnight and the talent around him, but USC will likely lose a game or two this season unless Barkley improves quickly. Thus, this success is a mirage as far as 2009 is concerned.

Keeping with the theme, another Conference USA team jumped into prominence with a big 2-0 start for the second straight year. Last season East Carolina looked poised to perhaps run the table after beating Virginia Tech and West Virginia, but ended up 8-5. This year Houston snuck right up on freshly-minted top 5 team Oklahoma State and now finds themselves in the national rankings alongside power programs and the regular quad of BCS busters in Boise, Utah, BYU, and TCU. Unlike the Cowboys they just knocked off, the Cougars will get a week to savor this victory with a bye before another big showdown against Texas Tech. QB Case Keenum is one of the hidden stars in the non-BCS conferences, and he has a more experienced supporting cast than he has ever had before. Keenum and company will put up a lot of points but may struggle to get a defensive stop when they need it most. In this manner they are very well-suited to beating the Big XII South teams, but conference play will be a challenge in the underrated Conference USA. Houston is not a mirage, but they also will not get the benefit of the doubt for BCS consideration unless each of Boise State, Utah, TCU, and BYU lose. That's not likely, so Houston as a BCS buster is a mirage.

Although the ACC and Big Ten seem more maligned in the national media, the Big East remains the weakest BCS conference due largely in part to their smaller size. Nevertheless, some good stories like Greg Paulus giving up the hardcourt for the quarterback role at Syracuse have been interesting storylines to start the year. Cincinnati made a statement pair of wins at Rutgers and in a 70 point win against SE Missouri state, while West Virginia has also notched a couple of hard fought victories. With South Florida and Pittsburgh also at 2-0, is the Big East good enough to have a true national title threat? As it turns out, the conference does have a national title contender and it is returning surprise champion Cincinnati. The Bearcats have not missed a beat defensively despite breaking in 10 new starters, and the offense will carry the defense through a lot of battles behind veteran QB Tony Pike and the best athlete in the conference WR Mardy Gilyard. Also look for Gilyard to make a couple back-breaking plays in the return game. Cincinnati is the real deal and will continue to build on their BCS appearance last year. If things break right, UC could indeed be in the title game in Pasadena, and this success story is no mirage.

What's not a mirage is great action in week 3, as a handful of ranked teams begin conference play early while may others travel to their toughest out-of-conference tests. Although the Trojans and the Buckeyes got more headlines last weekend, our first matchup of the week is a very similar Pac-10 travels east battle as California visits Minnesota. The Golden Bears are now widely considered a co-favorite in the Pac-10 race, but California has struggled mightily on the road the past two seasons. While the Golden Gophers have not torn up the competition in their first two games, TCF Bank Stadium is rocking on campus and Minnesota players will be ready to prove last year's hot start was no fluke. California is led by Heisman contender RB Javhid Best, who has made talented QB Kevin Riley's life easy. Minnesota's defense will need to keep a spy on Best at all times or else he will break huge plays with regularity. The Golden Gopher offense is led by WR Eric Decker, who will likely break 100 yards again against a Pac-10 defense. In the battle of the Goldens, California just has too much of a talent disparity in their favor to lose another tough road game. Cal wins by 10.

The second game of the week is a Thursday night ACC showdown with Georgia Tech heading south to face Miami. Each team won their ACC openers their last time out, but for the Yellowjackets this is a shorter week while the Hurricanes come off a bye. The Yellowjackets have dominated this series of late, and it all has been forced with the running game. With quarterback Josh Nesbitt's early struggles in the passing game, look for Paul Johnson's option attack to test whether the Hurricanes defense is truly better this year. Miami will counter with the opposite attack, an aerial assault led by QB Jacory Harris. To win this game, each team will need to find a way to get defensive stops against their relatively one-dimensional offensive opponents. Although Miami is improving and has the home field advantage, the Yellowjackets control the clock with their attack and Miami's defense is not yet back to the early decade dynasty form, which is what it needs to be to stop Georgia Tech cold. Yellowjackets win going away by 14.

The game of the week is the second time Virginia Tech has stepped into this spotlight in two weeks, this time against Nebraska at home rather than Alabama. Nebraska has come out to a hot start offensively against lesser competition, but new starting QB Zac Lee will be truly tested for the first time in Blacksburg. This will also be another test for dual-threat Tyrod Taylor of the Hokies, who is sending mixed signals after looking frazzled against Alabama and like an all-star against Marshall. Virginia Tech will again look to control the game on the ground with freshmen running backs Ryan Williams and David Wilson, but the Nebraska defense is returning to the Blackshirt glory that led them ten years ago. Neither offense will run amok in all likelihood, which means this battle will be won in the trenches and on special teams. While Beamerball is typically the way to decide such games, the Hokies have troubled special teams for the first time in recent memory. The Cornhuskers return the favor from a year ago, winning this one by 4.

2009 GOTW Record: 3-3
Last Week: 1-2

Fitz Top 10 - Week 2
1. Florida (2-0)
2. USC (2-0)
3. Alabama (2-0)
4. Texas (2-0)
5. Boise State (2-0)
6. Penn State (2-0)
7. California (2-0)
8. BYU (2-0)
9. Mississippi (1-0)
10. TCU (1-0)

Just Missed: Georgia Tech, LSU, Oklahoma, Utah, Ohio State

While the first two weeks have brought us some surprising success stories, we may not know for another month how these stories will play out. The key this week is redemption, as teams like Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, and Ohio State try to get their seasons back on track before it is too late. While the national title hopes for Oklahoma State might already be a mirage exposed, there are a lot of weeks left in the season for these fast and slow starters to keep trucking towards the summit. Enjoy the dwindling days of summer as we enter fall and the chill of football season crosses the nation. See you next week!

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Throwing Away The Future With One Punch

It certainly did not take long for the drama of 2009 to hit the fan, as the season was barely six hours old when the travesty on the blue turf happened. For those who may have been living under a rock, Boise State thoroughly dominated Oregon and won the first big battle of Week 1 19-8. As the players crossed each other at midfield, Boise State player Byron Hout was taunting and shoving the Oregon players. Oregon star RB LeGarrette Blount responded by throwing a right hook sucker punch right across Hout's face, and Hout went to the blue turf. Things got even crazier as Blount went after teammates and Boise State fans before he could be restrained, and just like that, sportsmanship takes a huge hit in college football before the season was one night old.

It only took one day for the Oregon athletic department to make the obvious decision. Given Blount's former indiscretions and the severity of his breakdown in Boise, LaGarrette Blount is finished in college football, suspended for his senior season. Blount had an opportunity to lead a team that had a nice chance of winning the conference crown and knocking off the ultimate kings of the decade in USC. If that happened, there's no question Blount may have been raking in the millions of dollars from the NFL draft next spring. Instead, he will be forced out of football for over a year and will be lucky to get drafted with any guaranteed contract coming down the road due ot his character issues. This is a real shame, watching some young man throw away his gifted life in a few seconds. Perhaps there are lessons we can all learn from this experience though.

First off, the Boise State scoreboard operator needs to be seriously reprimanded. Now I'm not one to call for a young man's head, and the scoreboard operator is likely another college student. Nevertheless, replaying the punch and the ridiculous scene happening in the stadium over and over, sending the Boise fans into a borderline frenzy. For some reason the major media outlets do not think this is a big deal because "every other stadium would have done the same thing." Absolutely not. Ohio Stadium will very rarely replay plays on the field that are controversial or causing a ruckus in the stands, let alone going to the low point of replaying a criminal assault. In an era where sportsmanship is in serious jeopardy, the last thing we need is scoreboard operators showing the fans something they will be upset by. It is best to think before you act, and it appears that did not happen in the Boise State scoreboard operations department on Thursday night. Thus, discipline should be in order.

Next we turn our attention to Mr. Hout and the Boise State athletic department. How is it possible that the proper punishment for Hout's actions is more reps in practice or whatever internal punishment was privately doled out by Boise State? Simple answer: it is not proper at all. In a season where team handshakes were mandated before the opening game for each team in the Football Bowl Subdivision, one man let somehow checked his sportsmanship at the door despite the handshake. Now Desmond Howard striking a Heisman pose after returning a punt return against his hated rival Ohio State is not the pinnacle of sportsmanship, but there's a big difference between those kinds of celebrations and rubbing it directly in the loser's face. As bent out of shape as Blount ended up being, Hout is lucky he was not absolutely busted up by Blount. This is another young man who needs to learn a lesson and the best way to make the point is to take away the privilege of football. Not for an entire season by any means, but boise State is making a mistake by playing Byron Hout anytime in the next two weeks.

What in the world has happened to playing a clean game and acting like you've been there when you win a big game? Now winning a national championship or conference crown is cause for serious celebration, but there's no reason why you cannot congratulate your valiant opponent on a hard-earned battle and a courageous effort. Whether this is at the end of a game or just small stuff like not running up the score intentionally or helping your opponent up off the ground after you lay a mighty tackle on him, it does not take much effort to show a high level of sportsmanship. Perhaps the NCAA needs to be more direct or drastic than mandatory handshakes, but the direct course of action will be hard to figure out. In a world gone mad on the outside, it is nice to escape for a few hours on Saturday and see a good game of football. Preferably this escape is unmarred by unsportsmanlike conduct. If players continue down this slippery slope, we will sadly not be talking about a knockout punch only next time.

There is one beautiful thing about the sport of football and life in general, and that's the chance to redeem yourself. One only has to look at Michael Vick to understand how low a human being can go only to make what appears to be a triumphant return a few years later. While there are thugs and people who never learn to live on the straight and narrow, many other men find a proper course even after making mistakes, and the rigors and structure of a football team can make that process smoother. One can only hope and pray that LeGarrette Blount gets into a program in the NFL where he can be mentored instead of used up by the business, thereby learning how to overcome his weakness. This is only a process LeGarrette can determine for himself, so it will be another interesting case study in whether he can be like Mike (Vick) or like Maurice (Clarett).

So let's hope that the focus shifts back to what we see on the field as opposed to off in the weeks to come. The first weekend brought more drama than expected, as teams like Northern Iowa again proved that higher-echelon FCS teams are dangerous opponents for BCS conference schools, especially in openers. Besides the blowout on the blue turf, three other major games between ranked teams saw Alabama, BYU, and Oklahoma State make big strides towards possible national championship contention, while Oklahoma and their defending Heisman Trophy winning quarterback are now looking for a new direction. All of a sudden it is not so far-fetched for Oklahoma State to be the favorite instead of Texas and Oklahoma, but there's a lot of football to be played before we get to those conference games. This week we have the biggest non-conference game of the year part two and not much else behind it. However, it's always the seemingly quiet weeks where the biggest surprises happen, so let's jump into the top three games of the upcoming weekend.

The first game of the week is a battle of newly minted national power versus great non-BCS program when Houston visits Oklahoma State. Last season this battle between wildly prolific offenses led to a 56-37 Cowboys win. QB Case Keenum got off to a great start for the Cougars last weekend, and he will be looking to continue his stat padding against the Oklahoma State defense. However talented the offensive stars are at OSU, the Cowboys will only gain true respect by continuing to put up the defensive efforts they did against Georgia last weekend. While this has the makings of a letdown game for the now-top-5 ranked Cowboys, but Mike Gundy will not let his team overlook such a high-quality opponent as the Cougars. As such, look for another breakout performance from Zac Robinson and company, OSU wins by 18.

After falling from grace experienced in 2005 for the Golden Domers and 2006 for the Wolverines, neither program has been on the top of their game in this battle. However, week 1 brought a surprising blowout of Western Michigan in the Big House and an even more shocking rollover of Nevada in South Bend. All of a sudden, both these teams seem to be on the right track again and one of them will come out of this game with legitimate thoguhts of rising in the national rankings and competing for a BCS bowl berth. Rich Rodriguez finally has his quarterback in freshman Tate Forcier, so expect Michigan to move the ball well against the Fighting Irish defense. After a few bumps in the road, Charlie Weis also seems to have an experienced top-flight quarterback in Jimmy Clausen. There should be a few touchdowns put on the board, but this game will certainly turn on the special teams and turnovers. While Michigan has a nice setup going, it is still a little too soon to expect Big Blue to be back in top form. After all, Notre Dame was only 6-6 last year after their own 3-9 debacle. Notre Dame wins by 7.

Unlike the first weekend of the season, week two only brings us one game between ranked teams and it is a good one. USC travels to Columbus to provide the Buckeyes with another opportunity to prove they and the Big Ten conference can win the big game. USC has terrorized much of the country this decade but especially the Big Ten, taking the skins off Illinois, Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State in recent years. But let's not focus on last year's 35-3 clobbering or the past in general...what USC has is a freshman quarterback Matt Barkley walking into a more hostile environment than he's ever dreamed of. Even with some of the best playmakers at wideout and running back, Barkley will likely be rattled at some point in this game and will need to overcome his nerves to prevent making the big mistake. On the other side of the ball, Ohio State knows all about making the big freshman mistake, as Terrelle Pryor single-handedly lost the game against Penn state with a poor decision. However, Pryor has come a long way since splitting time with Todd Boeckman in the Coliseum last year. While it's not always the case, one can only look at the three previous mega-games Ohio State has played in September: a home loss to Texas and Vince Young with Justin Zwick and Troy Smith sharing time, a road win at Texas and Colt McCoy because the defense rattled the young quarterback and Troy Smith was a full timer then, and last year when Boeckman and Pryor split time and got beat by a veteran QB Mark Sanchez. This just looks again like OSU has the better quarterback and USC is walking into a major trap like Texas from three years ago. If this game is close at the end, Ohio State will likely make the plays necessary to steal the game. However, OSU is a year away from being great again and USC has more talent, so look for USC to cruise to an 11 point victory.

2008 GOTW Record: 2-1
Last Week: 2-1

Fitz Top 10 - Week 1
1. Florida (1-0)
2. Alabama (1-0)
3. USC (1-0)
4. Oklahoma State (1-0)
5. Texas (1-0)
6. Boise State (1-0)
7. Penn State (1-0)
8. California (1-0)
9. Ohio State (1-0)
10. BYU (1-0)

Just Missed: Mississippi, Georgia Tech, TCU, LSU, Utah

So here we go into the fray for a second week. One can only hope the big games this week live up to last week's amazing finishes, especially the OSU-USC game. Will the non-BCS conference schools continue to make strides against the big boys or will we see the dominance of the same 5-6 programs from the last decade? Good luck to all teams and for the love of all that is good in sports, please conduct yourselves with good sportsmanship whether you are a player or a fan in the stands.

Sunday, September 6, 2009

Kicking Off The Season: Miami (OH) vs. Kentucky

While the venue is an unfamiliar one as Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, there's no mistaking the crisp September air and the return of the college football season. The fans from Lexington and the fans from Oxford came in droves to enjoy some tailgating around PBS and Great American Ballpark on the riverfront in downtown Cincinnati. The game is only a little over an hour's drive from each campus, so this becomes a true-neutral site game as far as the distance goes. UK probably fills 3/4 of the seats that are full, but we are nowhere near the 66,000 capacity of the big pro stadium. Still, the Kentucky fans will be heard if things go as expected in this one. Each team looks pumped up to begin the season and we may have a surprising good game here if Miami can grind long drives against the UK defense.

Before we turn to the stream of consciousness notes from the game, I want to point out how one bad decision can make all the difference in a game. It always seems like there's a turning point where a team wins or loses a game, but these turning points are most painful when it comes on a bad decision. Take the OSU-Navy game which was happening simultaneously with this one. Up 15 points with 7 minutes left, Ohio State goes for a 4th and 2 on the Navy 10 yard line when Tressel is always known for his field goal kicking and putting games away. Yet they went for it, did not get the conversion, and Navy responded with a 85 yard touchdown play. Then Navy turned another turnover into another touchdown. Of course then Navy made their own terrible decision and went with a spread attack pass when they ran the ball all over OSU all day. But the main point is...Tressel kicks the field goal and it all never gets out of hand. Nobody would be talking about Ohio State, except with respect to the USC game. Don't overlook the small decisions because they can ruin a game and a season.

STREAM OF CONSCIOUSNESS GAME RECAP

FIRST QUARTER

Miami received the ball first and an ominous start as they struggled to return the kickoff to their own 10 yard line. The first possession yielded no more than a yard total, and the Redhawks already are staring a problem in the face with UK starting on their own 45. Although a couple of quick first downs had the Wildcats driving, penalties stalled the drive right before the redzone and a 43-yard field goal attempt went wide left. The first two punches of the season missed, but there's potential for some serious fireworks on the scoreboard. The Redhawks came back with the momentum and even used a fake punt on a 4th and 1 to drive and flip the field position. After a punt to UK at the 12 yard line, the Wildcats were not able to accomplish much and Miami maintained the field position advantage. The Redhawks were gaining in confidence and drove all the way to the 17 yard line before missing a field goal attempt to keep the game scoreless. Scary moment on the next drive as Wildcats starting center Marcus Davis got carted off the field, something you never want to see in the first game of the season. Walk-on freshman Matt Smith is now put into a tough spot being expected to get the ball into the quarterbacks hands and not cause undue false starts in his first ever college game. Kentucky could not manage much before the end of the quarter and punted back to the Redhawks, leaving us to begin the second period in pretty much the same position that we started after 3 fruitless possession on either side.

SECOND QUARTER

Miami crossed midfield and continued to have the momentum when they decided inexplicably to run a trick play flea flicker. There was nothing there but blue helmets and Kentucky returned the interception past midfield. Four plays later, Kentucky had a 7-0 lead as you really wonder what the Redhawks were thinking in a competitive game with all the momentum. That flea flicker could be the play of the game if Kentucky begins to roll with this touchdown and new momentum. Miami did not do much other than one first down, and Kentucky responded by rolling downhill with mostly passes until a 16-yard touchdown run by backup running back Derrick Locke pushed the score to 14-0. Kentucky is finally starting to show why they were favored in this game, and all it took was one big defensive play to spark what could be a rout. The remainder of the quarter will not slip away quickly enough for Miami, as they are forced to punt again, which leads to another fast scoring drive and a 21-0 Wildcat lead. The touchdown pass from Mike Hartline to top target Chris Matthews was a thing of absolute beauty on both ends. Miami had two minutes left on the clock and desperation set in as three straight incomlete passes would give Kentucky yet another shot. However, a holding penalty at the beginning of the drive forced Rich Brooks to run the clock out and enjoy all the momentum heading into halftime with a 21-0 lead.

HALFTIME

Well new coach Michael Haywood will need to come up with some kind of special halftime speech to get the Redhawks back on track. Kentucky took a poor decision from Miami in a competitive game and drove that momentum to a three-touchdown scoring spree. While it may be hard to get back into this game, the road will be no easier on the blue turf in Boise next weekend, so Miami needs to work to find some positives in the second half. As for Kentucky, now that the engine has started, it would be nice to keep it going for another couple scoring drives and then get the backups in there for some high-quality experience that will be important in three weeks against Florida and beyond. This game is a story written many times before, and I can only hope we see more of the first-quarter toughness from Miami in the second half of this one.

THIRD QUARTER

The third quarter started just how the second quarter ended, as UK drove right down the field and scored on a direct snap 11-yard rush by Randall Cobb. Miami and Kentucky then exchanged punts as the Miami defense stopped UK for the first time in five drives. However, the Kentucky punt buried the Miami offense back at the 9-yard line. This led to a interception in their own red zone and a 25-yard interception return for touchdown by CB Trevard Lindley. Now that the momentum has stayed with the Wildcats, it will be mop-up time in the middle of the third quarter of a 35-0 game. Miami showed some signs of life yet again on the next drive, but stalled out as they crossed midfield and had to punt away with better field position. The Wildcats are beginning to rotate a few fresh faces in, but offensive leaders QB Mike Hartline, WR Chris Matthews, and WR Randall Cobb remain on the field for this drive. The Wildcats have a week off next week before big home games against Louisville and Florida so perhaps Rich Brooks is thinking of getting a much in-game experience as possible while it remains available to them. Despite those starters staying in, RB Moncell Allen carried the major workload in the following drive as UK drove across midfield to end the third quarter.

FOURTH QUARTER

Although Kentucky is driving down the field again, don't expect Miami to stop playing on defense just because the game is out of hand. However, the young gun RB Moncell Allen showed his speed and his strength in driving the Wildcats across the goal line once more for a 42-0 lead. Miami followed with a three-and-out and Kentucky drove it within Miami's 10 yard line and then pretty much downed it to keep the score classy. Miami again could do nothing but punt away on their red zone and Kentucky takes over with a mind to run out the clock with 6 minutes to go. The Miami college radio guys just had a bit of honesty on air as they said a hello to a listener "if they are still listening to us." Nothing like brutal honesty in a blowout. The last 8 minutes saw a couple possessions on both sides of the ball but not much action as Kentucky took their foot off the pedal and Miami could not get away from their own red zone. The game ends in a 42-0 blowout, but hopefully both teams can take something good away from this opener.

POSTGAME PRESS CONFERENCE

Rich Brooks played his press conference to a room packed with reporters and cameramen that certainly would not have met fire code. Brooks seemed rather subdued and looks for a lot of improvement in the next two weeks before Louisville comes to town. The far more interesting part of the press conference was Mike Haywood and his players trying to make sense of the 42-point loss before heading to Boise next week. QB Daniel Radaubaugh said that the decision to go for the flea flicker was just to try and really put a knockout punch on Kentucky, take a shot and stay unpredictable. Coach Haywood seemed rather shellshocked and said that he hopes to imporve most in special teams and tackling before the trip to Boise. What was most interesting was that WR Dustin Woods said the Redhawks stayed composed at halftime and were not distraught even with the 21 straight points by the Wildcats. The players and the coach knows that they need to execute better, as they really seem to believe they can play with teams like Kentucky. Considering how well the game went up until the failed trickery, I'd be inclined to agree. Still, I cannot help but look at Miami's next six games and see five road games and one home toughie against Cincinnati...and it's hard to imagine Miami sitting with more than 1-2 wins when we get to mid-October.

So yet again, a regular little bad decision snowballs a bunch of momentum towards the superior team and before you know it, the underdog is out of the game. It's a cliche but this game proves yet again that it is true. When you are the underdog or lower-talented team and you've played an opponent to a scoreless dual through a quarter and a half, don't start resorting to trick plays. If you want to take a shot that's fine, but trick plays end up in disaster more often than big gains and touchdowns. It's not a promising debut for coach Heywood, but then again, nobody expected this to be an easy season in Oxford. Still, it would have been nice to have some points or some positives to take away from this game.

Kentucky will almost certainly be 2-0 when the Gators come to town, but the Wildcats will need to improve considerably if they hope to win that game. Kentucky cannot afford the mental lapses and slow starts from today. However, a win is a win and a 42 point shutout gives a lot of good things to build on. However, neither of these teams will be world-beaters from what I saw today. For the Redhawks, it's just going to be survive for the next two weeks and then jump into the weaker part of the MAC schedule with vigor. Hopefully they are not beaten down mentally, as Miami has enough to compete in the MAC if things break correctly.

Above all else, it is fantastic to finally have Saturdays full of football again. Whether it's blocking two field goal attempts to win a game, intercepting a 2-point conversion attempt, or turning an interception into 42 straight points, every game is a blessing. Enjoy the remainder of your Labor Day weekend and we'll see you later in the week where the inevitable LaGarrette Blount issues will come up as well as looking ahead to the biggest non-conference game of the season.

Thursday, September 3, 2009

Dessert First - Cupcake Week Returns

College football does not have a preseason in the form that the pros do, but the first week of every season might as well be the preseason since the 12th game was added a few years ago. Of the 65 BCS conference teams, six have conference game openers but only 23 of the remaining 59 have opening games against FBS competition. That's less than 39% of major conference teams playing legitimate competition. So in the spirit of enjoying giving big paychecks to small-school athletic programs and getting a nice tune-up victory, we shall now call this "Cupcake Week." I'll expect full royalty payments from the major media networks just when they catch on to this nifty moniker. However, there are certainly things to be excited about in this first week when our beloved teams hit the field again.

Everybody begins on Thursday night undefeated. Although some teams probably have no chance at a national championship, anybody can go undefeated and end up in the BCS if nothing else. There's always surprises on a national scale when you least expect it, and everyone seems to believe it's all about Florida, Oklahoma, Texas, and USC in 2009. However, don't sleep on the likes of Virginia Tech, Penn State, West Virginia, Oregon, and TCU. There will be plenty of superstar power on the top teams, but former Heisman trophies and national championship trophies mean nothing now, as everyone starts anew. This is a great time for everyone, even if the season sours in just a few days or weeks.

Perhaps the biggest news to come out of lead-up to Week 1 is a load of allegations against the Michigan football program for breaking NCAA rules limiting offseason coaching and hours per week spent in practice or working out during the season. Although nobody would deny these rules are not broken all over the college football landscape, you know things must be turning very sour if Michigan players are coming out and turning against their coach. Rich Rodriguez already alienated the fans with a worse-than-expected 3-9 first campaign, and this is not the way to start redeeming yourself among the Big Blue elite. The last thing Michigan needs is for the program to fall into complete disarray or risk NCAA sanctions at a crucial turning point. Make no mistake about it, Rodriguez has started to recruit his kind of talent and will take Michigan back to the summit, if he can last long enough to do it.

Again, it's not the fact that Michigan is likely breaking these NCAA rules, but that players are the ones breaking and confirming the story. This begins to call more into question why good players like Justin Boren and Ryan Mallett left a program they could've easily led while Rodriguez transitioned. Perhaps it was not sour grapes on the players' part as originally assumed but instead there are serious problems that need to be addressed before Rodriguez can be respected as the leader of the program. It may seem silly, but a win over Ohio State may be the only thing that can turn everything around before the Wolverines go somewhere else. Definitely a top storyline heading into 2009.

Speaking of the Buckeyes, Ohio State has one of the better FBS games by starting at home against Navy. What makes the game even more interesting is that Ohio State's athletic and public relations departments have gone all-out with a Navy week showing off the service academy around the state. This hoopla will be punctuated by OSU fans cheering for the navy team in a similar fashion to how they cheer for the Buckeyes when they take the field on Saturday. Now if this can be pulled off it will be a nice gesture, but there's really no purpose to treating these football teams differently. Don't get me wrong, I believe the service these young men will offer to our country deserves the highest praise, but not necessarily before giving that service. Sportsmanship is honorable, but I canno thelp but think this will come off as false patriotism instead of what the OSU public relations department thinks it will be.

Here's a lock-solid predication for the 2009 season: not only will Colt McCoy win the Heisman trophy finally, but Texas will get another chance in the BCS Championship. You see, Heisman voters are obscenely hesitant to crown someone a second time, so don't expect Sam Bradford or Tim Tebow to get any breaks. Texas will also get the benefit of the doubt over anybody in the country except for maybe Florida after getting jobbed out of a chance last year. However, the bad news is that the Heisman curse will continue and Texas will lose the championship this time. It's too early to say who that mysterious opponent will be, but you better believe the Heisman winner will continue to lose this game.

The first game of the week is Georgia at Oklahoma State. While most of the SEC and Big XII tunes up against lesser foes in Cupcake Week, you have to give credit to these programs for scheduling a solid opponent in Week 1. Oklahoma State's star has been rising in the past few years under coach Mike Gundy, and this looks to be the year where the Cowboys could break the OU-UT stranglehold on the Big XII. Meanwhile, Georgia will be a dangerous team flying somewhat under the radar thanks to Florida's dominant position. Georgia will struggle in replacing Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno, but fifth-year senior Joe Cox has game experience before Stafford arrived on the scene and he also has some highly talented receivers to throw to, including WR A.J. Green. The real battle of this game will be the prolific Cowboy offense against the strong Bulldog defense, but look for a statement game from all the Cowboy stars QB Zac Robonson, RB Kendall Hunter, and WR Dez Bryant while the national attention is turned on Stillwater. Georgia has been here before, but the Cowboys have too much this year for the Bulldogs to steal a road win in the opener. Cowboys win by 14.

The second game of the week is Oregon at Boise State on Thursday night on the blue turf. This is a rematch of last year's 37-32 classic at Autzen Stadium, which the Broncos won after nearly blowing a 24 point lead. One deciding factor of that game was Oregon losing QB Jeremiah Masoli early in the game to injury, but Masoli has a score to settle with the Broncos and has made it clear publicly that this game means a lot to him. Oregon will again feature a prolific offense led by RB LaGarrette Blount, and the Boise State defense will be sorely tested in this first outing of the year. Look for the Bronco offense to be improved behind second-year starting quarterback Kellen Moore, and the Oregon defense will need to improve dramatically from last season in order to slow the Bronco attack. This game is definitely poised to be another shootout, which normally would favor the Ducks. However, Boise has not lost on the blue turf in the regular season since 2001 and has a slightly better defense than the Ducks, which will be the difference. Broncos win by 7.

The top game of the week is a top-ten battle between Alabama and Virginia Tech in Atlanta. Just like last season's Clemson-Alabama showdown, this game will likely drop one team out of the national spotlight while making an instant darkhorse national title contender. This game has everything you could possibly hope for in two top-ten teams, two great coaches in Nick Saban and Frank Beamer, and two bruising defenses. Unlike the previous two games discussed, the winner of this battle will be lucky to score more than 21 points with all the questions for both offenses going into the season. QB Greg McElroy takes the reins for the Crimson Tide and will need his offensive line to really shine for him to succeed against the likes of the Hokies. On the other side of the ball, look for hokie QB Tyrod Taylor to continue to be a dual-threat but a better passer than in previous years. Unlike last year's Kickoff Classic blowout against Clemson, Alabama knows they will be in for a true battle in this game. Especially in early-season games, one turnover could make all the difference and Beamerball will not let the Hokies down in this regard. Virginia Tech escapes with a 3 point win.

2008 GOTW Record: 25-20
Last Week: 0-0

Fitz Top 10 - Preseason
1. Florida
2. Oklahoma
3. Virginia Tech
4. USC
5. Ohio State
6. Texas
7. Penn State
8. Alabama
9. Oklahoma State
10. Mississippi

Just Missed: California, Boise State, Georgia Tech, Oregon, LSU

I don't know about you, but I think this is the best part of the year. Not only does the weather turn perfect for the next two months or more, but you can relax with college football throughout the week and a ton on Saturdays. Every season has its surprises and 2009 will be no different. Although there may be some more high-profile games this weekend, I will be checking out Kentucky and Miami (OH) playing in downtown Cincinnati at the stadium of the Bengals. Having never seen a pro football game or a college game in such a stadium, I'll be interested to report on the tailgating and atmosphere inside the big stadium. Whether you are headed to your local stadium or hanging out in front of the television, enjoy your first weekend and get ready for some great football in the coming weeks of September.