Rivalry Saturday? Showdown Saturday? Last weekend would have been more appropriately titled, Blowout Saturday. What's left in the rubble of blowouts all across the country is a little more clarity on the ten BCS participants, and a whole lot of fogginess near the top 2. The most important blowout on Saturday was Oklahoma beating Texas Tech 65-21. The Red Raiders drop into a three-way tie with Oklahoma and Texas atop the most competitive division in Division I-A football, and now it appears the BCS will determine who will play in the Big XII title game as well as the BCS Championship. Before looking at the rest of the weekend that was, now is a great time to make the case for all three Big XII South teams vying for the spot that leads to a conference championship and a date in Miami for the national championship.
First off we have current BCS #2 Texas. The Longhorns will boast of their tough stretch of schedule that saw them face Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Texas Tech in consecutive weeks. Texas came out of that murderer's row 3-1 and missed 4-0 by the narrowest of margins, one second in Lubbock. Texas has the narrowest loss of games between the three, and missed playing the two terrible North teams K-State and Iowa State. Texas is probably only competing with Oklahoma, so they will no doubt keep pointing to the 45-35 win in Dallas back in October. The Longhorns have a good argument for the South Division title.
Second on the docket is Oklahoma, the trendy team after dismantling Texas Tech. Now Oklahoma will have a hard time getting past the head-to-head with Texas, but that was a long time ago on a neutral field. This is a three-way tie, and Oklahoma would point out that they handily took care of the Red Raiders that Texas could not beat. Oklahoma will have the Oklahoma State game next week to help them have a great two week bump in the computer rankings, and maybe in the minds of voters as well. Oklahoma also pounded real teams out-of-conference, such as future Big East champion Cincinnati and MWC runner-up TCU. Oklahoma has been consistent all season and has never failed to put up 35 points, usually more than 50. Oklahoma probably has the better argument thanks to a stronger schedule than the Longhorns in a 3-way tie.
Lastly come the Red Raiders. Texas Tech faced their own murderer's row of Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma. Just like the Longhorns, they came up short only in the last game which was on the road. Texas Tech will not want to look at point spreads or time of losses, but instead will focus on their win over Texas. Will that be enough in a three-way tie to convince anybody? No! However, Texas Tech does have a trump card, that being Oklahoma State. In the games amongst the top 4 teams in the South, no road team has won yet. The last of those battles takes place on OSU's home field, and Oklahoma cannot just assume that's a win just yet. If the Cowboys win, Texas Tech is in the Big XII Championship thanks to beating Texas head-to-head. Make no mistake, the Red Raiders would jump back to #2 in the BCS if this plays out and they beat Missouri.
Conclusion: Still too foggy. I'll put my pick on the OSU-OU showdown below and my BCS Projections, but there's really no counting out anyone. Even if Oklahoma wins, they must get some style points to overcome Texas in the BCS thanks to the head-to-head bias against the Sooners. Hard to believe with one week to go in the regular season for the conference, so much is left to be decided.
As for the rest of college football world, you could've slept through some games on Saturday thanks to blowout city. In games that were supposed to be competitive, Utah crushed BYU 48-24, Penn State mauled Michigan State 49-18, Ohio State made a statement with a 42-7 win over Michigan, TCU crunched Air Force 44-10, North Carolina State shocked UNC 41-10, Florida State knocked over Maryland 37-3, and in the crusher of all crushers, Iowa shut the lights out in the Metrodome permanently with a 55-0 embarrassment of Minnesota. Where did the competitive balance and heated rivalries go? I suppose bright spots include Cincinnati and Oregon State blazing their trails to the BCS with narrow wins, but outside of those two, let's hope the next two weeks pay us back for the lack of November drama outside the ACC.
The coaching carousel had a very interesting development this week, and that is the re-hiring of Bill Snyder as Kansas State coach. Snyder coached the Wildcats to more wins in 17 seasons than they had the previous 54, and will be taking the reins from Ron Prince, who did not make it 3 seasons at KSU. This hire screams desperation, even if Snyder has the itch to coach again. Time will tell, but I cannot imagine Snyder becoming the next Bowden or Paterno, which means K-State just put off the inevitable growing pains that they should have rode out with Prince.
The BCS Projections this week changed a little. Penn State is your Big Ten champion, and thus gets slotted into the Rose Bowl. Ohio State gets bumped from the BCS, as does Miami after they dropped the slippery ACC ball. I see Oklahoma and Florida winning their respective conferences, and Utah will be the only at-large from a non-BCS conference thanks to Oregon State winning the Pac-10. Sorry Boise State, that's how it breaks this year. Of course I guess it's better to lose your spot to an 11-1 USC team than a 10-2 Ohio State, but still no Fiesta this year.
BCS Projections October 27, 2008 BCS Championship in Miami - Florida vs. Oklahoma Fiesta Bowl - Alabama vs. USC Sugar Bowl - Texas vs. Utah Orange Bowl - Boston College vs. Cincinnati Rose Bowl - Oregon State vs. Penn State
Just when I get back into the writer's pick-em race, I go and pick teams like Michigan State and Texas Tech, leading me to fall close to .500 on the season. Oh well, there's always bowl season. The third best game of the week was a tough choice, but assuming Florida continues to play well, I'll go with Maryland at Boston College. This ACC showdown will determine who steps up to join Florida State atop the division, and only Boston College will win the tiebreaker with the Seminoles for the championship game berth. Still, Maryland has played exactly the opposite of expected this season, crushing the hopes of great teams and losing to bad ones. Senior QB Chris Crane leads the Eagles in this year of growth and transition, and the underclassmen are starting to play like champions in November. Maryland has scored fewer points than it's given up despite a 7-4 record, but the offense has good athletes in QB Chris Turner and RB Da'Rel Scott. Maryland will probably win, but I think BC will make up for the disappointments of last season by protecting the home field and winning by 14.
In a week when Guns and Roses brought out an album for the first time in 15 years, it is fitting that we have "The Civil War" as the second-best game of the week, Oregon at Oregon State. With a win, Oregon State will benefit from that upset of USC and go to the Rose Bowl as champions of the Pac-10. Oregon can claim second place in the Pac-10 and drop their bitter rivals to third place with a win. For the Ducks, it will be all about controlling the clock with RBs Jeremiah Johnson and LeGarrette Blount. The headlines for Oregon State may go to Jacquizz Rodgers, but do not underestimate the passing game of OSU or the Beaver defense. Oregon State was battle-tested by BCS bound Penn State and Utah, and the team has come a long way from the 0-2 start. At Corvallis the Beavers have been dominant, and lately they just find ways to win games. OSU is a team of destiny, and while a rematch with Penn State may not be great for the Rose Bowl, it is what they will get after the Beavers cruise to a 3 point win.
Game of the week is clear, Oklahoma at Oklahoma State. Bedlam! Each team has a blistering offense, an underrated defense, and enough playmakers to make this a must-see. Don't even mention the fact that Oklahoma is playing for a national and conference title, while Oklahoma State would love to spoil OU's season and jump ahead of them in the Big XII bowl pecking order. The Oklahoma State defense contained Colt McCoy, but not Graham Harrell. For Oklahoma it was vice versa. Unfortunately for Cowboy fans, Sam Bradford and company are on such a roll right now that it seems unfair to put anybody but them and Florida in the BCS Championship until proven otherwise. OSU puts up a good struggle for a half, but Oklahoma rolls on to a much-needed 28 point win.
2008 GOTW Record: 20-19
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 - Week 13
1. Alabama (11-0)
2. Florida (10-1)
3. Texas (10-1)
4. Oklahoma (10-1)
5. Utah (12-0)
6. Boise State (11-0)
7. USC (9-1)
8. Texas Tech (10-1)
9. Penn State (11-1)
10. Ohio State (10-2)
Just Missed: Missouri, Ball State, Georgia, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State
Who could've guessed that this season, one week would have two OSU teams in the top two games of the week, neither involving Ohio State. Just how quirky 2008 has been! Although the Big Ten has shut down for the season, we've still got two weeks to go! We'll see you next week for my final regular season article, previewing the conference championships and taking our best guess at the BCS. Have a good weekend!
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Rivalry and Heisman Talk - It Must Be Late November
For the first time in recent memory, a weekend that looked terrible on paper ended up with no drama and no surprises, unless you consider how many points Florida puts up interesting. In a weekend where the NFL has had multiple overtime games (including a tie!) and lots of drama, Saturday just did not have it. There's good news though, and that's rivalry week is here! OK, well maybe rivalry weeks, since many have moved back to November 29 this season. Still, there's a lot of intrigue and BCS possibilities on the line this weekend.
Around this time of year, it becomes appropriate to start thinking about Heisman Trophy hopefuls. This year, we can split the hopefuls into three groups. First is the Big XII Quarterbacks, including Sam Bradford at Oklahoma (188.94 rating, 3406 yards, 38 TD), Zach Robinson at Oklahoma State (178.02 rating, 2421 yards, 21 TD), Colt McCoy of Texas (177.60 rating, 3134 yards, 30 TD), Chase Daniel of Missouri (171.18 rating, 3592 yards, 30 TD), and Graham Harrell of Texas Tech (169.18 rating, 4077 yards, 36 TD). If anyone can figure out which of these players is the best in the conference, please contact every Heisman voter you know. This group is odds-on favorite to stack the New York ceremonies and take home the hardware, but it is hard to distinguish them. Bradford is the most efficient, McCoy is a dual threat, and Daniel has been to New York before. Still, team performance means a lot and Graham Harrell currently sits in the number one slot. If Tech wins in Norman and locks up the Big XII South title, Harrell will likely become a consensus front-runner in late November.
The second group does not get the publicity of the first group, but they really should. Big Ten running backs have been a sight to see in 2008, and no fewer than four men should be considered for plane trips to New York: Shonn Greene of Iowa (1585 yards, 15 TD), Javon Ringer of Michigan State (1548 yards, 20 TD), Evan Royster of Penn State (1123 yards, 12 TD) and Chris Wells of Ohio State (957 yards, 7 TD in limited time). Without these four men, the top four teams in the Big Ten likely look a lot different than it currently is. Even if you eliminate Wells for the injury time and Royster for disappearing in big games, Ringer and Greene should be on your short list. Greene has done nothing short of miraculous in carrying Iowa back to prominence, and has rushed for over 100 yards in all 11 games. Ringer's touchdown numbers lead the nation and Michigan State is not a one-dimensional team. If Michigan State were to end up Big Ten champions, Ringer might get into the discussion. Greene is already there.
The final group are the miscellaneous or others. We have returning Heisman QB Tim Tebow from Florida (167.47 rating, 1913 yards, 19 TD passing; 393 yards, 11 TD rushing). Tebow's numbers are well off last-year's pace, but that's really why Florida is back in control of their national championship hopes. Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree (1010 yards, 18 TD) also joins the contender list as a sophomore with numbers slightly off last year (1962 yards), yet the team around him has hidden his amazing talent this time around. Finally, explosive RB Knowshon Moreno from Georgia (1244 yards, 15 TD) should be considered just simply based on the astounding number of highlight-reel plays he's accumulated this season. Each of these men faces an uphill battle in overtaking the Big XII quarterbacks, but all are deserving of recognition on a great season.
The Heisman stands for most valuable player in college football. The perfect storm is a statistical maniac who is the clear leader of a national title contender. There's no Tim Tebow in the mix this season statistically, but all of the Big XII quarterbacks have been in the national title race. Despite both being deserving of a trip to New York, the Texas Tech-Oklahoma game will likely eliminate one of the quarterbacks from the discussion. Assuming five finalists and that dropout, the most deserving guys with two weeks to go are Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, Shonn Greene, and Michael Crabtree. At this point I'm calling for Bradford to win it because there is a sentiment that nobody should win a second Heisman with worse numbers like Tebow, and Crabtree-Harrell will split votes. Bradford is the call, subject to wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.
Rivalry season is upon us, so for the next two weeks expect inspired football and some surprises like last year's Pitt-WVU shocker. This week finishes Big Ten conference play and will probably lock in two BCS spots unless Oregon State wins out. Michigan might be the biggest joke of the season after being a legitimate contender for a national title in 2006, but the Ohio State game is by no means wrapped up for the Buckeyes. In the wild and crazy ACC, North Carolina and NC State will have a grudge match with bowl hopes on the line. These matchups don't fill the top three games of the week, but they deserve far more attention than the undercard from last week. And if anyone can figure out how the ACC conference race will play out, please inform us at the email address linked above because we have no clue who to put in the projections! After the top three contenders from last week fell, next up witha bullseye is Miami. Good luck surviving the roadtrip to Georgia Tech, Hurricanes. The only other change is that Oregon State moves in as they stand two wins away from the Rose Bowl and the Big Ten loses a team.
BCS Projections
BCS Championship in Miami - Florida vs. Texas Tech
Fiesta Bowl - Texas vs. USC
Sugar Bowl - Alabama vs. Utah
Orange Bowl - Miami vs. Cincinnati
Rose Bowl - Oregon State vs. Ohio State
I've somehow kept the nose above water this season in the top game picks, but this week is simply loaded with tough decisions. With all due respect to a de-facto Big East championship between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, the third-best game of the week is BYU at Utah. The Big Ten is not the only conference wrapping up this weekend, and the Holy War will determine if the best non-BCS conference gets a bowl bid or allows Boise State to enter the mix. These teams are very similar, except for results against TCU (The Cougars lost by 25, the Utes survived with a 3 point win). The Utes are battle tested with wins against Michigan, Oregon State, and TCU. BYU brings an edge to this game with a passing offense featuring QB Max Hall and WR Austin Collie, who has gone over 100 yards receiving in nine straight games. Utah has played more close games and better defense overall, which bodes well for the Utes at home. Utah takes the first BCS berth away with a convincing 17 point win.
The second game of the week is the Big Ten Championship. No, it's not OSU-Michigan, but instead Michigan State at Penn State. Last second field-goals in November have set this battle up (MSU to escape Wisconsin, PSU in a loss to Iowa) which will determine a share of the Big Ten title if Ohio State wins, outright if Michigan pulls the upset. While a lot of people question the Spartans' motivation in this game if OSU wins, the fact is that Michigan State has not won a Big Ten title in 20 years and this is another chance to prove this program is for real now under head coach Mark Dantonio. Penn State's defense and lack of mistakes has carried them, but this is the best offense in the Big Ten featuring QB Brian Hoyer and RB Javon Ringer opening up opportunities for each other. Penn State has a special team this season, but RB Evan Royster and company have not been impressive in their past three outings. This is the kind of game the Nittany Lions always win, but I think Michigan State has the better offense for the predicted crummy weather this weekend in Happy Valley. Spartans celebrate a Big Ten title with a 3 point win.
The top game of the week is the weekly dose of Big XII South action after a week's hiatus. Missouri awaits from the North division, but the South has a lot of business to conclude including this week's battle in Norman between Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Everybody knows about the exploits of Heisman frontrunners Michael Crabtree, Graham Harrell, and Sam Bradford. Each of these teams explodes for about 50 points per game, but the defenses are solid on both sides and should keep this shootout in the 30's at most. Oklahoma should be able to keep Texas Tech's offense off the field with RB DeMarco Murray and longer drives, but holding momentum will be key to keeping the crowd in the game. Texas Tech has not survived a true tough road test, while Oklahoma has serious wins over Cincinnati and TCU. This is just the season Texas Tech wins all of these games they are not supposed to, and this one will be the shocker of the weekend as Texas Tech clinches the Big XII South with a 7 point win.
2008 GOTW Record: 19-17
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 - Week 12
1. Texas Tech (10-0)
2. Alabama (11-0)
3. Florida (9-1)
4. Texas (10-1)
5. Oklahoma (9-1)
6. Utah (11-0)
7. USC (9-1)
8. Boise State (10-0)
9. Penn State (10-1)
10. Ohio State (9-2)
Just Missed: Missouri, Michigan State, Ball State, Georgia, BYU
While I may not agree on all issues with Barack Obama or the seemingly endless waste of time in Congress regulating baseball, I am encouraged by the 60 Minutes and Monday Night Football interviews Mr. Obama has given in recent weeks. He not only supports an 8-team college football playoff, he is "going to throw his weight around" to see what he can do to make it happen. With the BCS about to lock up "4 More Years!" in television contracts, this is the time to put the pressure on the networks and the university presidents to make a change. Sure, the bowl system is a wonderful thing and can continue, but it is a farce that every other sport decides a champion with a proper playoff. While New England might have been the best team in pro football last season, they could not win when it counted and these opportunities should spread beyond 2 teams in the crazy college football world. So on this issue, go Mr. Obama go! See you next week when more rivalries come to the table.
Around this time of year, it becomes appropriate to start thinking about Heisman Trophy hopefuls. This year, we can split the hopefuls into three groups. First is the Big XII Quarterbacks, including Sam Bradford at Oklahoma (188.94 rating, 3406 yards, 38 TD), Zach Robinson at Oklahoma State (178.02 rating, 2421 yards, 21 TD), Colt McCoy of Texas (177.60 rating, 3134 yards, 30 TD), Chase Daniel of Missouri (171.18 rating, 3592 yards, 30 TD), and Graham Harrell of Texas Tech (169.18 rating, 4077 yards, 36 TD). If anyone can figure out which of these players is the best in the conference, please contact every Heisman voter you know. This group is odds-on favorite to stack the New York ceremonies and take home the hardware, but it is hard to distinguish them. Bradford is the most efficient, McCoy is a dual threat, and Daniel has been to New York before. Still, team performance means a lot and Graham Harrell currently sits in the number one slot. If Tech wins in Norman and locks up the Big XII South title, Harrell will likely become a consensus front-runner in late November.
The second group does not get the publicity of the first group, but they really should. Big Ten running backs have been a sight to see in 2008, and no fewer than four men should be considered for plane trips to New York: Shonn Greene of Iowa (1585 yards, 15 TD), Javon Ringer of Michigan State (1548 yards, 20 TD), Evan Royster of Penn State (1123 yards, 12 TD) and Chris Wells of Ohio State (957 yards, 7 TD in limited time). Without these four men, the top four teams in the Big Ten likely look a lot different than it currently is. Even if you eliminate Wells for the injury time and Royster for disappearing in big games, Ringer and Greene should be on your short list. Greene has done nothing short of miraculous in carrying Iowa back to prominence, and has rushed for over 100 yards in all 11 games. Ringer's touchdown numbers lead the nation and Michigan State is not a one-dimensional team. If Michigan State were to end up Big Ten champions, Ringer might get into the discussion. Greene is already there.
The final group are the miscellaneous or others. We have returning Heisman QB Tim Tebow from Florida (167.47 rating, 1913 yards, 19 TD passing; 393 yards, 11 TD rushing). Tebow's numbers are well off last-year's pace, but that's really why Florida is back in control of their national championship hopes. Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree (1010 yards, 18 TD) also joins the contender list as a sophomore with numbers slightly off last year (1962 yards), yet the team around him has hidden his amazing talent this time around. Finally, explosive RB Knowshon Moreno from Georgia (1244 yards, 15 TD) should be considered just simply based on the astounding number of highlight-reel plays he's accumulated this season. Each of these men faces an uphill battle in overtaking the Big XII quarterbacks, but all are deserving of recognition on a great season.
The Heisman stands for most valuable player in college football. The perfect storm is a statistical maniac who is the clear leader of a national title contender. There's no Tim Tebow in the mix this season statistically, but all of the Big XII quarterbacks have been in the national title race. Despite both being deserving of a trip to New York, the Texas Tech-Oklahoma game will likely eliminate one of the quarterbacks from the discussion. Assuming five finalists and that dropout, the most deserving guys with two weeks to go are Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, Shonn Greene, and Michael Crabtree. At this point I'm calling for Bradford to win it because there is a sentiment that nobody should win a second Heisman with worse numbers like Tebow, and Crabtree-Harrell will split votes. Bradford is the call, subject to wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.
Rivalry season is upon us, so for the next two weeks expect inspired football and some surprises like last year's Pitt-WVU shocker. This week finishes Big Ten conference play and will probably lock in two BCS spots unless Oregon State wins out. Michigan might be the biggest joke of the season after being a legitimate contender for a national title in 2006, but the Ohio State game is by no means wrapped up for the Buckeyes. In the wild and crazy ACC, North Carolina and NC State will have a grudge match with bowl hopes on the line. These matchups don't fill the top three games of the week, but they deserve far more attention than the undercard from last week. And if anyone can figure out how the ACC conference race will play out, please inform us at the email address linked above because we have no clue who to put in the projections! After the top three contenders from last week fell, next up witha bullseye is Miami. Good luck surviving the roadtrip to Georgia Tech, Hurricanes. The only other change is that Oregon State moves in as they stand two wins away from the Rose Bowl and the Big Ten loses a team.
BCS Projections
BCS Championship in Miami - Florida vs. Texas Tech
Fiesta Bowl - Texas vs. USC
Sugar Bowl - Alabama vs. Utah
Orange Bowl - Miami vs. Cincinnati
Rose Bowl - Oregon State vs. Ohio State
I've somehow kept the nose above water this season in the top game picks, but this week is simply loaded with tough decisions. With all due respect to a de-facto Big East championship between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, the third-best game of the week is BYU at Utah. The Big Ten is not the only conference wrapping up this weekend, and the Holy War will determine if the best non-BCS conference gets a bowl bid or allows Boise State to enter the mix. These teams are very similar, except for results against TCU (The Cougars lost by 25, the Utes survived with a 3 point win). The Utes are battle tested with wins against Michigan, Oregon State, and TCU. BYU brings an edge to this game with a passing offense featuring QB Max Hall and WR Austin Collie, who has gone over 100 yards receiving in nine straight games. Utah has played more close games and better defense overall, which bodes well for the Utes at home. Utah takes the first BCS berth away with a convincing 17 point win.
The second game of the week is the Big Ten Championship. No, it's not OSU-Michigan, but instead Michigan State at Penn State. Last second field-goals in November have set this battle up (MSU to escape Wisconsin, PSU in a loss to Iowa) which will determine a share of the Big Ten title if Ohio State wins, outright if Michigan pulls the upset. While a lot of people question the Spartans' motivation in this game if OSU wins, the fact is that Michigan State has not won a Big Ten title in 20 years and this is another chance to prove this program is for real now under head coach Mark Dantonio. Penn State's defense and lack of mistakes has carried them, but this is the best offense in the Big Ten featuring QB Brian Hoyer and RB Javon Ringer opening up opportunities for each other. Penn State has a special team this season, but RB Evan Royster and company have not been impressive in their past three outings. This is the kind of game the Nittany Lions always win, but I think Michigan State has the better offense for the predicted crummy weather this weekend in Happy Valley. Spartans celebrate a Big Ten title with a 3 point win.
The top game of the week is the weekly dose of Big XII South action after a week's hiatus. Missouri awaits from the North division, but the South has a lot of business to conclude including this week's battle in Norman between Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Everybody knows about the exploits of Heisman frontrunners Michael Crabtree, Graham Harrell, and Sam Bradford. Each of these teams explodes for about 50 points per game, but the defenses are solid on both sides and should keep this shootout in the 30's at most. Oklahoma should be able to keep Texas Tech's offense off the field with RB DeMarco Murray and longer drives, but holding momentum will be key to keeping the crowd in the game. Texas Tech has not survived a true tough road test, while Oklahoma has serious wins over Cincinnati and TCU. This is just the season Texas Tech wins all of these games they are not supposed to, and this one will be the shocker of the weekend as Texas Tech clinches the Big XII South with a 7 point win.
2008 GOTW Record: 19-17
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 - Week 12
1. Texas Tech (10-0)
2. Alabama (11-0)
3. Florida (9-1)
4. Texas (10-1)
5. Oklahoma (9-1)
6. Utah (11-0)
7. USC (9-1)
8. Boise State (10-0)
9. Penn State (10-1)
10. Ohio State (9-2)
Just Missed: Missouri, Michigan State, Ball State, Georgia, BYU
While I may not agree on all issues with Barack Obama or the seemingly endless waste of time in Congress regulating baseball, I am encouraged by the 60 Minutes and Monday Night Football interviews Mr. Obama has given in recent weeks. He not only supports an 8-team college football playoff, he is "going to throw his weight around" to see what he can do to make it happen. With the BCS about to lock up "4 More Years!" in television contracts, this is the time to put the pressure on the networks and the university presidents to make a change. Sure, the bowl system is a wonderful thing and can continue, but it is a farce that every other sport decides a champion with a proper playoff. While New England might have been the best team in pro football last season, they could not win when it counted and these opportunities should spread beyond 2 teams in the crazy college football world. So on this issue, go Mr. Obama go! See you next week when more rivalries come to the table.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Coaching Ranks Face Dilemma in Historic Times
Another week of college football in November, another unforeseeable upset. Before delving into that, there's a storm brewing in college football and national television networks are already clamoring for change in November. This time, it's not the BCS! Instead, the mid-season firings of Tyrone Willingham and this week's victim, Ron Prince at Kansas State, have the pundits screaming for blood over the dearth of African-American football coaches in Division I-A again. Why exactly does this problem persist, what can we do about it, and why is this such a big deal? A number of answers sit lurking in the background for us.
Why does the problem persist is the main question on most minds when the seemingly grim statistic is thrown up there that only four black head coaches will be left in 120 programs in 2009. This ignores the fact that it's still really six until the end of the year, and nobody really knows how Clemson, Tennessee, Washington, and others will hire this offseason. It is also deceptive because there are two other minority coaches as well who just don't happen to be African Americans. Nevertheless, the number seems terribly small when compared to a 55% minority student-athlete percentage. Furthermore, demographics studies have shown that about 14% of America is now black, with 33% spread out amongst all minorities. Even going with the demographics, 6 out of 120 is a mere 5%, a far cry from the expected 14%.
Historically, the number of black head coaches has wavered between three and eight total in the past two decades. While a step backwards is not what the football nation should strive for, there will inevitably be give and take in the process of integrating the coaching ranks. The real problem now appears to be at the ground level, not at the top. The number of black assistant coaches must be high enough so that obvious hires such as offensive and defensive coordinators do move into the head coaching positions when they come open. For college football to solve this problem, there needs to be more emphasis on hiring minorities anywhere on the coaching staff. Don't get me wrong, there are qualified candidates out there now moving through the ranks like Ron English. However, the numbers need to rise across the board or no progress will ever be made.
Other than encouraging all universities to consider more minorities at the ground level, there are other paths to consider. The NFL has had a "Rooney Rule" in effect for five years, which requires teams to interview qualified minority candidates for any head coaching opening. While the increase in NFL head coaches who are minorities in the past five years is significant (6% to 22%), many question whether the Rooney Rule had anything to do with it. While this program looks a lot like affirmative action, the mere fact is that the Rooney Rule does not guarantee minority hires. It simply opens up the opportunity, so perhaps a gentleman's agreement among university presidents to enact such a rule would help this integration process along. Other than that, the only other possibility is to continue encouraging black student athletes to consider coaching after their playing days are over. Given the 55% minority rate of players, a program encouraging more coaching careers would certainly close the gap.
Why is this such a big deal? Excellent question. The obvious reason is that the country's eyes are glazed over with true history this week as Barack Obama is our new president-elect, the first minority to do so. Furthermore, the NFL jump in minority coaches is probably shedding even more spotlight on the college coaching ranks. Although I think having a fit in the middle of November about this is premature, perhaps Obama's election is the impetus the sport needs to really take a look at more minority candidates. This by no means says aspiring young white coaches are not entitled to equal opportunities, but there should be plenty of openings with the "win now" mentality of college football for everyone to get a chance. For every Bob Stoops, Pete Carroll, and Jim Tressel out there, there's 10 coaches who cycle through programs every 3-5 years. The verdict: not as huge a problem as it is currently made out to be, but progress should be visible in the next decade or something is seriously wrong.
I would be remiss in not covering some on-the-field action. Five of the six undefeated teams remain, as Utah, Alabama, and Texas Tech all lived up to the hype in surviving major tests. Iowa made a ton of people smile after knocking off Penn State though, as the Big Ten is virtually locked out of the national championship this season. They can commisserate with the ACC and Big East, who also have no chance. There's always surprises in November, and this one was just a product of Penn State making a lot of mistakes. Iowa is tough at home, and just good enough to capitalize on the Nittany Lions's mistakes. This does not mean Joe Paterno is a failure, it just means they will have to settle for a Rose Bowl for only the second time in their Big Ten history and the first since 1995. A tough test against co-leader Michigan State remains, but the Nittany Lions still have a ton to play for.
The biggest beneficiary of the Penn State loss might actually be Ohio State. Had PSU went 11-0 and then lost to Michigan State, the three-way tie atop the Big Ten would have been awarded to Michigan State, who has not appeared in a Rose Bowl since 1988. Obviously a one-loss Penn State team would likely be chosen for a second BCS slot thanks to a better record and a win over OSU. This leaves a very solid Ohio State team on the outside looking in. Now the Buckeyes not only are two wins away from a fourth-straight Big Ten title (shared with the MSU-PSU winner), they are virtually guaranteed a BCS slot as long as Oregon State does not win out (which would give the PAC-10 two BCS slots). So congratulations to Iowa, as the Big Ten will benefit from a little parity and avoiding the toughest game of them all this season. Obviously the BCS Projections have changed, leaving PSU out of the championship now and moving Texas Tech into the slot for now. Boise State, West Virginia, and Georgia Tech are out, while Cincinnati, North Carolina, and Utah move into slots in a big movement week.
BCS Projections October 27, 2008
BCS Championship in Miami - Florida vs. Texas Tech
Fiesta Bowl - Texas vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl - Alabama vs. Utah
Orange Bowl - North Carolina vs. Cincinnati
Rose Bowl - USC vs. Penn State
After having too many games to choose from for a few weeks, this week it becomes hard to find three top games of the week. We start with a good battle in the MWC as 9-1 BYU travels to play 8-2 Air Force. While each team has lost a conference game, both are still in the hunt for a conference title with the backloaded MWC schedule in November. Air Force has had trouble keeping any one man in the spotlight this season, as there are platoons at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. This give the BYU defense a lot to prepare for. The Falcons also have a stingy defense, but it will be tested by the best offense it has seen all season. Outside of the TCU loss, BYU has been firing on all cylinders offensively, averaging nearly 40 points per game. QB Max Hall is yet another great quarterback in BYU's system, and he should be able to find some weaknesses in the Falcon defense. Both teams have quality special teams units, so the advantage has to go with the team with the only edge, that being BYU on offense. The Cougars set up the massive showdown with Utah by winning this one by 17.
The second game of the week is an ACC showdown between Boston College and Florida State. It's still completely undetermined who exactly will show up in the ACC Championship game, and this game may help clarify that answer. Boston College trails Wake Forest, FSU, and Maryland by a game in the division, but the Eagles have all three left on their schedule and so control their own destiny. Eagles QB Chris Crane has not had a great year, but RB Montel Harris has given him enough support to be effective at times. Florida State has been very solid offensively outside of the Wake Forest loss, but you have to wonder if QB Christian Ponder can keep up his high level of play this season. If there's any indication which way this one will go, it may be the special teams. Graham Gano is nearly perfect for the Seminoles, while BC is barely hitting half of their field goals. This makes the difference on the road for the Eagles, as Florida State wins by 3.
The game of the week is slightly less intringuing than the Nick Saban showdown, but South Carolina visiting Florida is always a fun storyline as Steve Spurrier tries to rekindle some magic in the Swamp. The Gamecocks have an outstanding defense, which stifles lesser opponents and keeps Spurrier in games against better competition. Still, the Gators are outscoring their competition by a 4:1 clip and are playing like a national champion right now. You know the Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin show, but look for WR Louis Murphy to continue tearing up defenses that double-team Harvin. The Gamecocks have issues running the ball and kicking field goals, which is not good going into the Swamp. Spurrier comes up with more great defense to keep it closer than usual for the Gators, but Florida wins by 10.
2008 GOTW Record: 17-16
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 - Week 11
1. Texas Tech (10-0)
2. Alabama (10-0)
3. Florida (8-1)
4. Texas (9-1)
5. Oklahoma (9-1)
6. Utah (10-0)
7. USC (8-1)
8. Boise State (9-0)
9. Penn State (9-1)
10. Ohio State (8-2)
Just Missed: Ball State, Missouri, Georgia, Michigan State, BYU
This looks like a poor week of football, but don't be fooled. These weeks are generally when big upsets happen and shockers continue. There will be more Iowa-like upsets, but good luck picking which game it will be. Better sit in front of the TV with the remote ready! Have a good week!
Why does the problem persist is the main question on most minds when the seemingly grim statistic is thrown up there that only four black head coaches will be left in 120 programs in 2009. This ignores the fact that it's still really six until the end of the year, and nobody really knows how Clemson, Tennessee, Washington, and others will hire this offseason. It is also deceptive because there are two other minority coaches as well who just don't happen to be African Americans. Nevertheless, the number seems terribly small when compared to a 55% minority student-athlete percentage. Furthermore, demographics studies have shown that about 14% of America is now black, with 33% spread out amongst all minorities. Even going with the demographics, 6 out of 120 is a mere 5%, a far cry from the expected 14%.
Historically, the number of black head coaches has wavered between three and eight total in the past two decades. While a step backwards is not what the football nation should strive for, there will inevitably be give and take in the process of integrating the coaching ranks. The real problem now appears to be at the ground level, not at the top. The number of black assistant coaches must be high enough so that obvious hires such as offensive and defensive coordinators do move into the head coaching positions when they come open. For college football to solve this problem, there needs to be more emphasis on hiring minorities anywhere on the coaching staff. Don't get me wrong, there are qualified candidates out there now moving through the ranks like Ron English. However, the numbers need to rise across the board or no progress will ever be made.
Other than encouraging all universities to consider more minorities at the ground level, there are other paths to consider. The NFL has had a "Rooney Rule" in effect for five years, which requires teams to interview qualified minority candidates for any head coaching opening. While the increase in NFL head coaches who are minorities in the past five years is significant (6% to 22%), many question whether the Rooney Rule had anything to do with it. While this program looks a lot like affirmative action, the mere fact is that the Rooney Rule does not guarantee minority hires. It simply opens up the opportunity, so perhaps a gentleman's agreement among university presidents to enact such a rule would help this integration process along. Other than that, the only other possibility is to continue encouraging black student athletes to consider coaching after their playing days are over. Given the 55% minority rate of players, a program encouraging more coaching careers would certainly close the gap.
Why is this such a big deal? Excellent question. The obvious reason is that the country's eyes are glazed over with true history this week as Barack Obama is our new president-elect, the first minority to do so. Furthermore, the NFL jump in minority coaches is probably shedding even more spotlight on the college coaching ranks. Although I think having a fit in the middle of November about this is premature, perhaps Obama's election is the impetus the sport needs to really take a look at more minority candidates. This by no means says aspiring young white coaches are not entitled to equal opportunities, but there should be plenty of openings with the "win now" mentality of college football for everyone to get a chance. For every Bob Stoops, Pete Carroll, and Jim Tressel out there, there's 10 coaches who cycle through programs every 3-5 years. The verdict: not as huge a problem as it is currently made out to be, but progress should be visible in the next decade or something is seriously wrong.
I would be remiss in not covering some on-the-field action. Five of the six undefeated teams remain, as Utah, Alabama, and Texas Tech all lived up to the hype in surviving major tests. Iowa made a ton of people smile after knocking off Penn State though, as the Big Ten is virtually locked out of the national championship this season. They can commisserate with the ACC and Big East, who also have no chance. There's always surprises in November, and this one was just a product of Penn State making a lot of mistakes. Iowa is tough at home, and just good enough to capitalize on the Nittany Lions's mistakes. This does not mean Joe Paterno is a failure, it just means they will have to settle for a Rose Bowl for only the second time in their Big Ten history and the first since 1995. A tough test against co-leader Michigan State remains, but the Nittany Lions still have a ton to play for.
The biggest beneficiary of the Penn State loss might actually be Ohio State. Had PSU went 11-0 and then lost to Michigan State, the three-way tie atop the Big Ten would have been awarded to Michigan State, who has not appeared in a Rose Bowl since 1988. Obviously a one-loss Penn State team would likely be chosen for a second BCS slot thanks to a better record and a win over OSU. This leaves a very solid Ohio State team on the outside looking in. Now the Buckeyes not only are two wins away from a fourth-straight Big Ten title (shared with the MSU-PSU winner), they are virtually guaranteed a BCS slot as long as Oregon State does not win out (which would give the PAC-10 two BCS slots). So congratulations to Iowa, as the Big Ten will benefit from a little parity and avoiding the toughest game of them all this season. Obviously the BCS Projections have changed, leaving PSU out of the championship now and moving Texas Tech into the slot for now. Boise State, West Virginia, and Georgia Tech are out, while Cincinnati, North Carolina, and Utah move into slots in a big movement week.
BCS Projections October 27, 2008
BCS Championship in Miami - Florida vs. Texas Tech
Fiesta Bowl - Texas vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl - Alabama vs. Utah
Orange Bowl - North Carolina vs. Cincinnati
Rose Bowl - USC vs. Penn State
After having too many games to choose from for a few weeks, this week it becomes hard to find three top games of the week. We start with a good battle in the MWC as 9-1 BYU travels to play 8-2 Air Force. While each team has lost a conference game, both are still in the hunt for a conference title with the backloaded MWC schedule in November. Air Force has had trouble keeping any one man in the spotlight this season, as there are platoons at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. This give the BYU defense a lot to prepare for. The Falcons also have a stingy defense, but it will be tested by the best offense it has seen all season. Outside of the TCU loss, BYU has been firing on all cylinders offensively, averaging nearly 40 points per game. QB Max Hall is yet another great quarterback in BYU's system, and he should be able to find some weaknesses in the Falcon defense. Both teams have quality special teams units, so the advantage has to go with the team with the only edge, that being BYU on offense. The Cougars set up the massive showdown with Utah by winning this one by 17.
The second game of the week is an ACC showdown between Boston College and Florida State. It's still completely undetermined who exactly will show up in the ACC Championship game, and this game may help clarify that answer. Boston College trails Wake Forest, FSU, and Maryland by a game in the division, but the Eagles have all three left on their schedule and so control their own destiny. Eagles QB Chris Crane has not had a great year, but RB Montel Harris has given him enough support to be effective at times. Florida State has been very solid offensively outside of the Wake Forest loss, but you have to wonder if QB Christian Ponder can keep up his high level of play this season. If there's any indication which way this one will go, it may be the special teams. Graham Gano is nearly perfect for the Seminoles, while BC is barely hitting half of their field goals. This makes the difference on the road for the Eagles, as Florida State wins by 3.
The game of the week is slightly less intringuing than the Nick Saban showdown, but South Carolina visiting Florida is always a fun storyline as Steve Spurrier tries to rekindle some magic in the Swamp. The Gamecocks have an outstanding defense, which stifles lesser opponents and keeps Spurrier in games against better competition. Still, the Gators are outscoring their competition by a 4:1 clip and are playing like a national champion right now. You know the Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin show, but look for WR Louis Murphy to continue tearing up defenses that double-team Harvin. The Gamecocks have issues running the ball and kicking field goals, which is not good going into the Swamp. Spurrier comes up with more great defense to keep it closer than usual for the Gators, but Florida wins by 10.
2008 GOTW Record: 17-16
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 - Week 11
1. Texas Tech (10-0)
2. Alabama (10-0)
3. Florida (8-1)
4. Texas (9-1)
5. Oklahoma (9-1)
6. Utah (10-0)
7. USC (8-1)
8. Boise State (9-0)
9. Penn State (9-1)
10. Ohio State (8-2)
Just Missed: Ball State, Missouri, Georgia, Michigan State, BYU
This looks like a poor week of football, but don't be fooled. These weeks are generally when big upsets happen and shockers continue. There will be more Iowa-like upsets, but good luck picking which game it will be. Better sit in front of the TV with the remote ready! Have a good week!
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Familiar and Unfamiliar Faces Take The Reins
First off, if you are reading this and you have not voted, go vote right now! Doing your civic duty and ensuring we have the highest voter turnout possible in America ensures the will of the country will be done. I do not care if you support McCain, Obama, or William Shatner as your president. Just go vote. For the rest of us, let's jump in to the week that was.
The story was all but written. Colt McCoy and company lead a Heisman-defining drive down the field after the Longhorn defense stiffened to stop Texas Tech completely for zero points in the second half. Someone forgot to tell this Red Raider team about the coronation, as Texas Tech simply responded with a more impressive drive to win with one second left. Michael Crabtree made two talented Longhorn defensive backs look silly, and suddenly there's a new Big XII team atop the roost. Of course Tech must survive their own gauntlet, but a home date with Oklahoma State followed by the bye week and then Oklahoma in Norman is significantly easier than what Texas just faced in 4 weeks. Enjoy the top while it lasts Texas Tech.
While the Red Raiders are the unexpected face in the top echelon, it appears 2006 national champion Florida is back in the mix as a contender with Texas for best one loss team. To say the Gators pounded a national-title caliber Georgia team would be an understatement. The Party in Jacksonville became the slaughter of 2008, eclipsing even the disappointing USC-OSU game from September. While Georgia laments a lost season to some degree, Florida now turns its attention to clinching a division title next weekend and perhaps playing for more than they could have imaginged following the loss to Mississippi. The Gators are back, and it's nice to see a power from the past 3-4 years step up and challenge the unexpected trio of Alabama, Penn State, and Texas Tech.
One popular saying is that all good things must come to an end. It's a maxim that rings true in sports and in life. While Michigan fans certainly would not trade their shiny new RichRod for the Lloyd Carr days (yet), it is never easy to swallow a first losing season in 40 years and no bowl for the first time in 33 years. Even last season, Michigan made a statement on behalf of the Big Ten by beating a solid Florida squad in the Capital One Bowl. Given how bad the Wolverines have been, the conference is probably thankful the Wolverines are taking a year off. On the bright side, Rodriguez will now have a lot of extra time to build up his program from the roots and instill his system, probably leading to a major improvement in 2009. Remember, almost all college coaches get a ton better in their second season. Michigan fans can point all the way to their rival and Jim Tressel to see that phenomenon (7-5 in 2001, 14-0 in 2002). Doubling the win total will not win a national title for the Big Blue, but it will get them back to respectability.
The big names just keep on falling, as Clemson and Tommy Bowden have started a landslide of big-name coaches headed elsewhere in 2009. This week's victim is Phillip Fulmer, who has been a part of the Volunteer program for 30 years. Fulmer did win the first BCS national championship, but never regained that form in being a middling SEC team recently. For the first time perhaps ever, the Volunteers are not the best team in the state thanks to Vanderbilt. With the Titans having a legendary start in the pro ranks and Vanderbilt nationally ranked, the time appears right for Fulmer to hand the reins to someone else. Perhaps this relationship can end on amicable terms, but likely only if Tennessee turns it around to beat Vandy and win a bowl game.
In BCS Buster news, Tulsa disappeared off the radar after a crushing loss. This leaves Boise State, Utah, and TCU in the mix for the at-large berth. Utah and TCU clash on Thursday night this week, so another team will be eliminated and that will simplify the picture a lot. No offense to Ball State, but the Cardinals are not in the mix unless a lot of crazy things happen down the stretch.
Irony struck the Big Ten this weekend. With the two likely BCS candidates out on a bye week, the little nine had the national spotlight at noon, filling up three channels on my dial. Go figure that all three games end up being instant classics. Purdue overcame Michigan on a crazy hook and lateral play with time running out. The only points of the second half between Northwestern and Minnesota came with 20 seconds left as Northwestern returned an interception for a touchdown to beat the Gophers. Then Michigan State kicked a field goal as time expired to gain the first lead of the day and a winning one-point margin against Wisconsin. Putting aside the lack of wisdom from Minnesota (in continuing to throw down the field when a knee gets them to overtime at home) and Wisconsin (calling timeout when MSU was rushing the field goal until on the field with ten seconds left and letting the Spartans have a composed shot at the game winning field goal), it was the best football this conference has seen all season. Go figure.
One last thing before we jump into the BCS projections for this week. A lot of people are blowing around a lot of air this week on whether Texas Tech deserves to be above Penn State in the BCS Standings or whether Texas, Oklahoma, or Florida is the best one-loss team. That is their job, but three words for the wise: IT. DOESN'T. MATTER. November is when once dominant teams have their off week and when the biggest upsets occur. It happens every season, and there's no point losing sleep over PSU in the tree slot this week. Save your debating voice for December. I'm Dave Fitzgerald and I approved this message. (Couldn't help it, there's been no other commercials on for weeks)
BCS Projections October 27, 2008
BCS Championship in Miami - Penn State vs. Florida
Fiesta Bowl - Texas Tech vs. West Virginia
Sugar Bowl - Alabama vs. Texas
Orange Bowl - Georgia Tech vs. Boise State
Rose Bowl - USC vs. Ohio State
There are SIX matchups between ranked teams this weekend, so it is hard to cull a top three games. Still, we must go on. The third game of the week is TCU at Utah on Thursday night. Given the three-team depth of the MWC, TCU may be able to overcome that Oklahoma loss and still end up in the BCS by beating Utah after the BYU beatdown. This is literally the next to last game for the Horned Frogs, so a win here could have them sitting in the clubhouse waiting for a Boise State stumble. QB Andy Dalton has been an admirable leader of the TCU offense, but the Horned Frogs get it done with rushing and defense. Utah has not faced a defense nearly this good all season, and QB Brian Johnson will be sorely tested by the good coverage TCU can put out on the field. The Utes are playing at home, but TCU is actually more battle-tested at this point. The defense will smother the Utes, as TCU wins by 10.
The second game of the week matches the new kids on the Big XII leaderboard block, as Oklahoma State visits Texas Tech. Despite the big win against Texas, the one knock on Texas Tech is that their defense is not up to snuff. Still, it may not matter with QB Graham Harrell passing for over 400 yards per game to receivers such as Michael Crabtree and Detron Lewis. Oklahoma State survived a road game at Missouri and almost knocked off the Longhorns in Austin, so the hostile crowd in Lubbock will be nothing new for OSU. The Cowboys have a much more balanced attack, led by RB Kendall Hunter. Texas Tech comes in on top of the world, and is probably hoping for a shootout this week. Oklahoma State will be happy if the game is played in the 20's. It only seems fitting that the topsy-turvy Big XII have yet another top dog this season, so I'll guess Cowboys by 4.
The top game of the week mantle returns to the SEC, as this week's battle between Alabama and LSU in Baton Rouge could decide the SEC West. The Crimson Tide comes in with the highest luxury ever afforded an SEC team, a two game division lead in early November. Alabama has stepped up and played big in the largest games of the season, so expect QB John Parker Wilson and RB Glen Coffee to race out to an early lead. The key will be how the Tigers respond to the certain early surge. LSU still has a solid defense, but they have been exposed twice for 50+ points by the powers of the SEC East. QB Jarrett Lee does not have the offense to win that sort of shootout, so LSU falls behind early and gets embarassed in front of the home crowd. Alabama wins by 20.
2008 GOTW Record: 16-14
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 - Week 10
1. Penn State (9-0)
2. Texas Tech (9-0)
3. Alabama (9-0)
4. Florida (7-1)
5. Texas (8-1)
6. Oklahoma (8-1)
7. USC (7-1)
8. Utah (9-0)
9. Boise State (8-0)
10. Oklahoma State (8-1)
Just Missed: Ohio State, TCU, Ball State, LSU, Georgia
Again, go out and vote if you have not and you read this on Tuesday. Our nation will elect new leaders in 2008, and then college football will take the national spotlight away for the crazy run through November. Tons of great football on the schedule this week, so get out there and enjoy it!
The story was all but written. Colt McCoy and company lead a Heisman-defining drive down the field after the Longhorn defense stiffened to stop Texas Tech completely for zero points in the second half. Someone forgot to tell this Red Raider team about the coronation, as Texas Tech simply responded with a more impressive drive to win with one second left. Michael Crabtree made two talented Longhorn defensive backs look silly, and suddenly there's a new Big XII team atop the roost. Of course Tech must survive their own gauntlet, but a home date with Oklahoma State followed by the bye week and then Oklahoma in Norman is significantly easier than what Texas just faced in 4 weeks. Enjoy the top while it lasts Texas Tech.
While the Red Raiders are the unexpected face in the top echelon, it appears 2006 national champion Florida is back in the mix as a contender with Texas for best one loss team. To say the Gators pounded a national-title caliber Georgia team would be an understatement. The Party in Jacksonville became the slaughter of 2008, eclipsing even the disappointing USC-OSU game from September. While Georgia laments a lost season to some degree, Florida now turns its attention to clinching a division title next weekend and perhaps playing for more than they could have imaginged following the loss to Mississippi. The Gators are back, and it's nice to see a power from the past 3-4 years step up and challenge the unexpected trio of Alabama, Penn State, and Texas Tech.
One popular saying is that all good things must come to an end. It's a maxim that rings true in sports and in life. While Michigan fans certainly would not trade their shiny new RichRod for the Lloyd Carr days (yet), it is never easy to swallow a first losing season in 40 years and no bowl for the first time in 33 years. Even last season, Michigan made a statement on behalf of the Big Ten by beating a solid Florida squad in the Capital One Bowl. Given how bad the Wolverines have been, the conference is probably thankful the Wolverines are taking a year off. On the bright side, Rodriguez will now have a lot of extra time to build up his program from the roots and instill his system, probably leading to a major improvement in 2009. Remember, almost all college coaches get a ton better in their second season. Michigan fans can point all the way to their rival and Jim Tressel to see that phenomenon (7-5 in 2001, 14-0 in 2002). Doubling the win total will not win a national title for the Big Blue, but it will get them back to respectability.
The big names just keep on falling, as Clemson and Tommy Bowden have started a landslide of big-name coaches headed elsewhere in 2009. This week's victim is Phillip Fulmer, who has been a part of the Volunteer program for 30 years. Fulmer did win the first BCS national championship, but never regained that form in being a middling SEC team recently. For the first time perhaps ever, the Volunteers are not the best team in the state thanks to Vanderbilt. With the Titans having a legendary start in the pro ranks and Vanderbilt nationally ranked, the time appears right for Fulmer to hand the reins to someone else. Perhaps this relationship can end on amicable terms, but likely only if Tennessee turns it around to beat Vandy and win a bowl game.
In BCS Buster news, Tulsa disappeared off the radar after a crushing loss. This leaves Boise State, Utah, and TCU in the mix for the at-large berth. Utah and TCU clash on Thursday night this week, so another team will be eliminated and that will simplify the picture a lot. No offense to Ball State, but the Cardinals are not in the mix unless a lot of crazy things happen down the stretch.
Irony struck the Big Ten this weekend. With the two likely BCS candidates out on a bye week, the little nine had the national spotlight at noon, filling up three channels on my dial. Go figure that all three games end up being instant classics. Purdue overcame Michigan on a crazy hook and lateral play with time running out. The only points of the second half between Northwestern and Minnesota came with 20 seconds left as Northwestern returned an interception for a touchdown to beat the Gophers. Then Michigan State kicked a field goal as time expired to gain the first lead of the day and a winning one-point margin against Wisconsin. Putting aside the lack of wisdom from Minnesota (in continuing to throw down the field when a knee gets them to overtime at home) and Wisconsin (calling timeout when MSU was rushing the field goal until on the field with ten seconds left and letting the Spartans have a composed shot at the game winning field goal), it was the best football this conference has seen all season. Go figure.
One last thing before we jump into the BCS projections for this week. A lot of people are blowing around a lot of air this week on whether Texas Tech deserves to be above Penn State in the BCS Standings or whether Texas, Oklahoma, or Florida is the best one-loss team. That is their job, but three words for the wise: IT. DOESN'T. MATTER. November is when once dominant teams have their off week and when the biggest upsets occur. It happens every season, and there's no point losing sleep over PSU in the tree slot this week. Save your debating voice for December. I'm Dave Fitzgerald and I approved this message. (Couldn't help it, there's been no other commercials on for weeks)
BCS Projections October 27, 2008
BCS Championship in Miami - Penn State vs. Florida
Fiesta Bowl - Texas Tech vs. West Virginia
Sugar Bowl - Alabama vs. Texas
Orange Bowl - Georgia Tech vs. Boise State
Rose Bowl - USC vs. Ohio State
There are SIX matchups between ranked teams this weekend, so it is hard to cull a top three games. Still, we must go on. The third game of the week is TCU at Utah on Thursday night. Given the three-team depth of the MWC, TCU may be able to overcome that Oklahoma loss and still end up in the BCS by beating Utah after the BYU beatdown. This is literally the next to last game for the Horned Frogs, so a win here could have them sitting in the clubhouse waiting for a Boise State stumble. QB Andy Dalton has been an admirable leader of the TCU offense, but the Horned Frogs get it done with rushing and defense. Utah has not faced a defense nearly this good all season, and QB Brian Johnson will be sorely tested by the good coverage TCU can put out on the field. The Utes are playing at home, but TCU is actually more battle-tested at this point. The defense will smother the Utes, as TCU wins by 10.
The second game of the week matches the new kids on the Big XII leaderboard block, as Oklahoma State visits Texas Tech. Despite the big win against Texas, the one knock on Texas Tech is that their defense is not up to snuff. Still, it may not matter with QB Graham Harrell passing for over 400 yards per game to receivers such as Michael Crabtree and Detron Lewis. Oklahoma State survived a road game at Missouri and almost knocked off the Longhorns in Austin, so the hostile crowd in Lubbock will be nothing new for OSU. The Cowboys have a much more balanced attack, led by RB Kendall Hunter. Texas Tech comes in on top of the world, and is probably hoping for a shootout this week. Oklahoma State will be happy if the game is played in the 20's. It only seems fitting that the topsy-turvy Big XII have yet another top dog this season, so I'll guess Cowboys by 4.
The top game of the week mantle returns to the SEC, as this week's battle between Alabama and LSU in Baton Rouge could decide the SEC West. The Crimson Tide comes in with the highest luxury ever afforded an SEC team, a two game division lead in early November. Alabama has stepped up and played big in the largest games of the season, so expect QB John Parker Wilson and RB Glen Coffee to race out to an early lead. The key will be how the Tigers respond to the certain early surge. LSU still has a solid defense, but they have been exposed twice for 50+ points by the powers of the SEC East. QB Jarrett Lee does not have the offense to win that sort of shootout, so LSU falls behind early and gets embarassed in front of the home crowd. Alabama wins by 20.
2008 GOTW Record: 16-14
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 - Week 10
1. Penn State (9-0)
2. Texas Tech (9-0)
3. Alabama (9-0)
4. Florida (7-1)
5. Texas (8-1)
6. Oklahoma (8-1)
7. USC (7-1)
8. Utah (9-0)
9. Boise State (8-0)
10. Oklahoma State (8-1)
Just Missed: Ohio State, TCU, Ball State, LSU, Georgia
Again, go out and vote if you have not and you read this on Tuesday. Our nation will elect new leaders in 2008, and then college football will take the national spotlight away for the crazy run through November. Tons of great football on the schedule this week, so get out there and enjoy it!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
