New Year's Day's bowl games continue with a pair of matchups each featuring a Big XII team. In the first, the Gator Bowl pits Nebraska against Clemson, teams who had opposite expectations coming into the year. The Cotton Bowl in Dallas, meanwhile, features Texas Tech and the Red Raiders' high-powered offense against Mississippi and Houston Nutt's "Wild Rebel" look in a matchup that could keep the scoreboard operator busy. Both games provide quality appetizers prior to the beginning of BCS play later in the day.
Gator | Cotton
GATOR BOWL - Clemson vs Nebraska
January 1 - 12:00 PM CST CBS TV - Jacksonville, FL
The matchup...
One could looks at this matchup from the context of the beginning of the season: Clemson had national title aspirations and Nebraska had a new attitude with new coach Bo Pelini. While both struggled in the first half of the season and shattered those expectations, nobody should look at this game as a disappointment. It is New Year's Day, which still holds a lot of significance for these proud programs.
The way fans should frame the game is a matchup of red hot teams and rising star coaches. Bo Pelini waited for his opportunity at his alma mater for four seasons, and now he has the Cornhuskers moving back to the proud defensive days of the 1980's and 1990's. Clemson also finished the season red hot after getting used to Dabo Swinney at midseason, and Swinney has more than earned the job Tommy Bowden gave up.
When Clemson has the ball...
Part of the reason Clemson underachieved this season was a slew of injuries on the offensive line. By November the crew was back in full force, and the results were obvious. Senior QB Cullen Harper will be eager to prove he can still play well in his final game, and this will be made easier with more time from the line. Also, look for the double-trouble rushing attack of James Davis and C.J. Spiller to be back on track.
Nebraska does not have the right to claim "The Blackshirts" title quite yet in 2008, but this group of young talents is not that far away. In a league full of dynamic offenses, Nebraska held strong on the back half of the season, mostly due to their defensive backfield. While Nebraska will likely not get enough pressure with the good Clemson line, the backfield could make enough big plays to keep this game close.
When Nebraska has the ball...
Lost in the mix of all the Heisman contender quarterbacks was a great story in QB Joe Ganz. Ganz may not have a flashy name, but he does have flashy statistics, throwing for over 3000 yards. His primary targets included Nate Swift and Mike McNeill. Nebraska also showed glimpses of a power rushing game forming, but the offensive line needs more work for them to rely upon that.
Clemson was not very strong consistently on defense, under either coach Bowden or coach Swinney. However, Clemson found a way to not break in crunch time in the red zone, and the Tigers only gave up 199 points all season. Look for Clemson to be up to the task of stopping this high powered Big XII offense, making for an exciting battle.
Star watch...
Both teams feature dual running backs, so the clear star is Nebraska QB Joe Ganz. A New Year's Day bowl game is the perfect opportunity for the country to officially meet this beast of the midwest, and perhaps count him among the other elites in the conference and the country. Look for a big game from Ganz.
Deciding factor...
The Nebraska offense has gaudy numbers like other quality Big XII teams, but will the same formula for success work out of conference against a decent defense? Clemson's defense has found a way to win games in the clutch, and this game will be no different. Joe Ganz has a breakout game, but it comes in a losing effort.
COTTON BOWL - Mississippi vs Texas Tech
January 2 - 1:00 PM CST FOX TV - Dallas, TX
The matchup...
Moving to a non-traditional January 2 date, the Cotton Bowl will be in the Dallas Cotton Bowl stadium for the final time this season. The farewell game for the stadium is a great matchup between two teams very closely tied to the southern region. This game could match two of the biggest surprises in college football in 2008.
The Red Raiders toyed with a national championship this season before falling at Oklahoma in November. Mississippi defeated Florida in the Swamp, handing the Gators their only loss. With both teams being so hot at the end of the season and consistently strong, this could be a good indicator of the BCS Championship outcome a few days later.
When Mississippi has the ball...
Part of the success story in coach Houston Nutt's first season at the helm was a much more high powered offense. Transfer quarterback Jevan Snead returns to Texas for the first time since leaving the Longhorns, and you know he would love to make a statement near his hometown. Mississippi is very balanced, passing for 220 yards and rushing for 180 yards per game.
The best news for the Rebels might be the defense they have drawn. While the Red Raiders are better than most seasons defensively, the Red Raiders still had trouble defending the multi-faceted attack of the Oklahoma Sooners. Mississippi is not quite that talented, but Ole Miss does bring a lot of different formations. The Red Raiders defense needs to step up to help win this game.
When Texas Tech has the ball...
Here's the headline act of the ballgame, as senior QB Graham Harrell throws his last college balls to standout receiver Michael Crabtree. The Red Raiders boast the second most passing yards in the country this season, but Mike Leach has taught a little more of a running game this season. Even the one team to beat the Red Raiders did so by outscoring them and keeping their offense off the field, so look for a lot of points in this game.
However, Mississippi has the correct balance to keep Texas Tech's offense off the field the majority of the time. During the latter half of the season, Mississippi kept opponents to about 12 points per game. That will not happen here, but don't expect easy sledding for the Red Raider offense.
Star watch...
Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree is already a two-time All-American, and he is only a sophomore. The honors are warranted, as this might be the best wide receiver in a decade to come through the college ranks. In his last game with Graham Harrell, look for some goodbye fireworks to light up the scoreboard.
Deciding factor...
Let's face it, Mississippi has gone on the road and won in the most hostile environments at Florida and LSU. Texas Tech does have a little homefield advantage in Dallas, but this will not make Ole Miss back down. The deciding factor will be whether Ole Miss can hold Texas Tech under 40 points, and I think they will not. Tech rolls to their most wins in school history.
Monday, December 29, 2008
Friday, December 26, 2008
2008 Bowl Preview Part V
As the final days of the year wind down, ranked teams begin making their way out of practice and back into the limelight in the pre-New Year's Bowl rush. Despite these bowls happening mid-week, there are a lot of compelling storylines and cross-conference rivalries that will begin being settled on the field for 2008-09. Today's preview looks at three great western bowl games, each with a fine matchup in the 2008 editions.
Holiday | Armed Forces | Sun
HOLIDAY BOWL - Oklahoma State vs Oregon
December 30 - 7:00 PM CST ESPN TV - San Diego, CA
The matchup...
It would be hard to imagine a much more balanced matchup if you handpicked any team from the Pac-10 and any opponent from the Big XII. Both of these teams finished 9-3, both boast great running backs, and both can fire up the scoreboard lights. This is poised to be a classic high-scoring affair.
While each team looks up to a big dog such as USC, Oklahoma, and Texas, both of these teams have created solid niches for themselves atop everybody else in their respective conferences. A lot of people will take the Big XII team in a mirror match like this because the Big XII was clearly stronger this season. Until the teams take the field and settle it, nobody really knows.
When Oklahoma State has the ball...
The Cowboys have an incredibly balanced offense, striking for 240 yards per game passing and 256 rushing. RB Kendall Hunter led the pass-happy Big XII conference with over 1500 rushing yards this season, but Oregon cannot ignore basher RB Keith Totson. Like all other good Big XII teams, the Cowboys also feature a dynamic passing duo, QB Zac Robinson and WR Dez Bryant.
So the Ducks are tasked with stopping the irresistable force. Oregon was statistically terrible agains the pass, which may open up a national spotlight opportunity for Dez Bryant. Still, the Ducks were better against Oregon State and over the latter half of their schedule. DB Nick Reed is a punisher on the defensive side any may be assigned to shut down the running game, but that will be a tall task.
When Oregon has the ball...
Whereas OSU will bring the option to open up the passing game, Oregon spreads the field and runs with power out of that spread. However, look for Oregon to break out a bunch of power formations against OSU, who played against a lot of spread this season. The strongest features of Oregon's offense are the two running backs, each nearly 1000 yard rushers in 2008: Jeremiah Johnson and LaGerrette Blount.
As bad as the Ducks were against the pass this season, Oregon State was worse. Again, the numbers are likely skewed by playing in the best offensive division in college football, but there's no excuse for how poor these numbers are. Sophomore QB Jeremiah Masoli only started the last month of the season but showed his poise under fire, leading Oregon to a season-ending three game win streak. The Cowboys will be in trouble defensively here.
Star watch...
So many to choose from, but WR Dez Bryant still stands out on the Oklahoma State side. Bryant very well may be a "Devin Hester" type player at the pro level, but Oklahoma State will enjoy and exploit his talents while they remain in Orange and Black. He will almost certainly find the endzone, and should be watche don every single play for the breakout.
Deciding factor...
Oregon coach Mike Belotti has been in a lot of battles and knows how this one will be decided: by the defenses. Expect a high-scoring affair, but the Oklahoma State defense has something to prove now that they are out of the Big XII. The Cowboys defense makes the difference in this one.
ARMED FORCES BOWL - Houston vs Air Force
December 31 - 11:00 AM CST ESPN TV - Fort Worth, TX
The matchup...
Anybody have that sense that there are too many bowls? While I love the bowl season being stacked with matchups good and bad, others say this game is a perfect example of why there should be fewer bowls because this is a rematch from September. However, Houston was mired in a 1-3 start and Air Force started strong.
The first game had Air Force race out to a four touchdown lead and almost blow it all in the fourth quarter. Air Force gained all of their 380 yards on the ground, a remarkable feat. But that game is in the past, and should have no bearing on the December battle.
When Houston has the ball...
The Cougars have the number one offense in the country, led by an amazing passing game. QB Case Keenum has 43 touchdowns this season and will break 5000 yards in this game for the season. The most surprising thing with his statistics is that his favorite target is a tight end Mark Hafner. Look for RB Tyron Carrier to balance the offensive attack.
Air Force had a fairly strong defense this season, which can be hard to do in the wide-open MWC. The Falcons are respectable against the pass, but they will be tested by the Houston offense who knows quite a bit more about the Falcon defense this time around. The defensive line must get pressure on Keenum to slow the Cougars.
When Air Force has the ball...
The clash of styles will be Houston's prolific passing against the Falcon rushing game, ranked 5th nationally. Air Force brings a corps of runners at you, with seven quality running backs splitting time. The top receiver only has 11 receptions, so there's no doubt where Air Force wants to bring the attack.
The good news for the Falcons is that the Cougar run defense is horrid. Houston has learned to outscore opponents this year, but Air Force will again try to grind the life out of the Cougars with ball control. The split will not be 380 rushing 0 passing this time around, but it will not be far off.
Star watch...
Houston sophomore QB Case Keenum is the man to keep an eye on in this battle. He will be limited in time of possession by the Air Force rushing attack, but he proved in September he can rally four or five quick scores on the Falcon defense if necessary. As Keenum goes, the Cougars will go.
Deciding factor...
In games with clash of styles on offense, there's something to be said for experience. The Air Force players are not new to their offense like Houston is this season, plus Air Force can hold onto the ball with a controlling rushing offense. If Air Force keeps Houston off the field like the first meeting, they will hold on to a lead again.
SUN BOWL - Oregon State vs Pittsburgh
December 31 - 1:00 PM CST CBS TV - El Paso, TX
The matchup...
Oregon State had a real chance at the Rose Bowl, with one game against Oregon making the difference and sending them here. They are rewarded with a matchup with a team facing a similar situation, as Pittsburgh could be in the Orange Bowl had they beaten Cincinnati.
The headliners in this game are young rushers, as these team feature the 2007 and 2008 freshman rushing leaders. Unlike the Beavers, Pittsburgh comes in on a slight roll.
When Oregon State has the ball...
Freshman RB Jacquizz Rodgers really defined the OSU season, as his slow start in the first two games and the injury holding him out against Oregon led to 3 of the Beavers' 4 losses. Without Rodgers, the Beavers have gone one-dimensional. Their QB Lyle Moevao cannot carry this offense by himself, although he does have a talented target in WR Sammie Stroughter.
The Panthers have a new attitude under Dave Wannstedt, and the results are finally showing on the field. Taking out a painful and embarrassing opener loss to Bowling Green, Pittsburgh is well on the way to capitalizing on the momentum of the huge WVU upset in 2007. A key to this reversion to glory has been a strong and opportunistic defense. If Rodgers does not play, Pittsburgh will likely eat the Beaver offense alive.
When Pittsburgh has the ball...
RB LeSean McCoy held the freshman rushing title last season, and he improved this year to help lead his team to doubling their win total from 2007. Pittsburgh's quarterback Bill Stull has done about as well as Moevao from OSU. Pitt can still be inconsistent on offense, but they are a much more cohesive unit than last year.
Oregon State does not boast a great defense, and they were rolled over for 400 yards rushing by the Oregon Ducks in the finale. With McCoy on a real roll entering this game, the Panther offense will try to continue this trend. Watch for the Beaver defense to make a clutch turnover or two though.
Star watch...
In this game, we'll go with both young running backs, Jacquizz Rodgers and LeSean McCoy. Rodgers would be the pick, but he may be ineffective coming off his injury, in which case McCoy is the star. McCoy will be a pro star someday, so watch his downhill rushing, very similar to a Beanie Wells type back for those who watch national Heisman candidates.
Deciding factor...
There's no question about it, the deciding factor is whether Rodgers plays and whether he plays well. If he is ineffective, the Pittsburgh defense will be very well prepared to stop the hampered Beaver offense. If Rodgers is present, watch for a fast and close game.
Holiday | Armed Forces | Sun
HOLIDAY BOWL - Oklahoma State vs Oregon
December 30 - 7:00 PM CST ESPN TV - San Diego, CA
The matchup...
It would be hard to imagine a much more balanced matchup if you handpicked any team from the Pac-10 and any opponent from the Big XII. Both of these teams finished 9-3, both boast great running backs, and both can fire up the scoreboard lights. This is poised to be a classic high-scoring affair.
While each team looks up to a big dog such as USC, Oklahoma, and Texas, both of these teams have created solid niches for themselves atop everybody else in their respective conferences. A lot of people will take the Big XII team in a mirror match like this because the Big XII was clearly stronger this season. Until the teams take the field and settle it, nobody really knows.
When Oklahoma State has the ball...
The Cowboys have an incredibly balanced offense, striking for 240 yards per game passing and 256 rushing. RB Kendall Hunter led the pass-happy Big XII conference with over 1500 rushing yards this season, but Oregon cannot ignore basher RB Keith Totson. Like all other good Big XII teams, the Cowboys also feature a dynamic passing duo, QB Zac Robinson and WR Dez Bryant.
So the Ducks are tasked with stopping the irresistable force. Oregon was statistically terrible agains the pass, which may open up a national spotlight opportunity for Dez Bryant. Still, the Ducks were better against Oregon State and over the latter half of their schedule. DB Nick Reed is a punisher on the defensive side any may be assigned to shut down the running game, but that will be a tall task.
When Oregon has the ball...
Whereas OSU will bring the option to open up the passing game, Oregon spreads the field and runs with power out of that spread. However, look for Oregon to break out a bunch of power formations against OSU, who played against a lot of spread this season. The strongest features of Oregon's offense are the two running backs, each nearly 1000 yard rushers in 2008: Jeremiah Johnson and LaGerrette Blount.
As bad as the Ducks were against the pass this season, Oregon State was worse. Again, the numbers are likely skewed by playing in the best offensive division in college football, but there's no excuse for how poor these numbers are. Sophomore QB Jeremiah Masoli only started the last month of the season but showed his poise under fire, leading Oregon to a season-ending three game win streak. The Cowboys will be in trouble defensively here.
Star watch...
So many to choose from, but WR Dez Bryant still stands out on the Oklahoma State side. Bryant very well may be a "Devin Hester" type player at the pro level, but Oklahoma State will enjoy and exploit his talents while they remain in Orange and Black. He will almost certainly find the endzone, and should be watche don every single play for the breakout.
Deciding factor...
Oregon coach Mike Belotti has been in a lot of battles and knows how this one will be decided: by the defenses. Expect a high-scoring affair, but the Oklahoma State defense has something to prove now that they are out of the Big XII. The Cowboys defense makes the difference in this one.
ARMED FORCES BOWL - Houston vs Air Force
December 31 - 11:00 AM CST ESPN TV - Fort Worth, TX
The matchup...
Anybody have that sense that there are too many bowls? While I love the bowl season being stacked with matchups good and bad, others say this game is a perfect example of why there should be fewer bowls because this is a rematch from September. However, Houston was mired in a 1-3 start and Air Force started strong.
The first game had Air Force race out to a four touchdown lead and almost blow it all in the fourth quarter. Air Force gained all of their 380 yards on the ground, a remarkable feat. But that game is in the past, and should have no bearing on the December battle.
When Houston has the ball...
The Cougars have the number one offense in the country, led by an amazing passing game. QB Case Keenum has 43 touchdowns this season and will break 5000 yards in this game for the season. The most surprising thing with his statistics is that his favorite target is a tight end Mark Hafner. Look for RB Tyron Carrier to balance the offensive attack.
Air Force had a fairly strong defense this season, which can be hard to do in the wide-open MWC. The Falcons are respectable against the pass, but they will be tested by the Houston offense who knows quite a bit more about the Falcon defense this time around. The defensive line must get pressure on Keenum to slow the Cougars.
When Air Force has the ball...
The clash of styles will be Houston's prolific passing against the Falcon rushing game, ranked 5th nationally. Air Force brings a corps of runners at you, with seven quality running backs splitting time. The top receiver only has 11 receptions, so there's no doubt where Air Force wants to bring the attack.
The good news for the Falcons is that the Cougar run defense is horrid. Houston has learned to outscore opponents this year, but Air Force will again try to grind the life out of the Cougars with ball control. The split will not be 380 rushing 0 passing this time around, but it will not be far off.
Star watch...
Houston sophomore QB Case Keenum is the man to keep an eye on in this battle. He will be limited in time of possession by the Air Force rushing attack, but he proved in September he can rally four or five quick scores on the Falcon defense if necessary. As Keenum goes, the Cougars will go.
Deciding factor...
In games with clash of styles on offense, there's something to be said for experience. The Air Force players are not new to their offense like Houston is this season, plus Air Force can hold onto the ball with a controlling rushing offense. If Air Force keeps Houston off the field like the first meeting, they will hold on to a lead again.
SUN BOWL - Oregon State vs Pittsburgh
December 31 - 1:00 PM CST CBS TV - El Paso, TX
The matchup...
Oregon State had a real chance at the Rose Bowl, with one game against Oregon making the difference and sending them here. They are rewarded with a matchup with a team facing a similar situation, as Pittsburgh could be in the Orange Bowl had they beaten Cincinnati.
The headliners in this game are young rushers, as these team feature the 2007 and 2008 freshman rushing leaders. Unlike the Beavers, Pittsburgh comes in on a slight roll.
When Oregon State has the ball...
Freshman RB Jacquizz Rodgers really defined the OSU season, as his slow start in the first two games and the injury holding him out against Oregon led to 3 of the Beavers' 4 losses. Without Rodgers, the Beavers have gone one-dimensional. Their QB Lyle Moevao cannot carry this offense by himself, although he does have a talented target in WR Sammie Stroughter.
The Panthers have a new attitude under Dave Wannstedt, and the results are finally showing on the field. Taking out a painful and embarrassing opener loss to Bowling Green, Pittsburgh is well on the way to capitalizing on the momentum of the huge WVU upset in 2007. A key to this reversion to glory has been a strong and opportunistic defense. If Rodgers does not play, Pittsburgh will likely eat the Beaver offense alive.
When Pittsburgh has the ball...
RB LeSean McCoy held the freshman rushing title last season, and he improved this year to help lead his team to doubling their win total from 2007. Pittsburgh's quarterback Bill Stull has done about as well as Moevao from OSU. Pitt can still be inconsistent on offense, but they are a much more cohesive unit than last year.
Oregon State does not boast a great defense, and they were rolled over for 400 yards rushing by the Oregon Ducks in the finale. With McCoy on a real roll entering this game, the Panther offense will try to continue this trend. Watch for the Beaver defense to make a clutch turnover or two though.
Star watch...
In this game, we'll go with both young running backs, Jacquizz Rodgers and LeSean McCoy. Rodgers would be the pick, but he may be ineffective coming off his injury, in which case McCoy is the star. McCoy will be a pro star someday, so watch his downhill rushing, very similar to a Beanie Wells type back for those who watch national Heisman candidates.
Deciding factor...
There's no question about it, the deciding factor is whether Rodgers plays and whether he plays well. If he is ineffective, the Pittsburgh defense will be very well prepared to stop the hampered Beaver offense. If Rodgers is present, watch for a fast and close game.
Saturday, December 20, 2008
2008 Bowl Preview Part II
This year, the college football bowl season kicks off with a bang: four games in one Saturday to open up the postseason play in style. However, it is the next four games on the 2008-2009 bowl schedule that include some of the best pre-January matchups you will find, right in time for the Christmas holidays. Indeed, the crown jewel of the non-BCS postseason schedule is here in the early bowl season, so let's jump right in to the storylines as SCS.com previews part two of the '08-'09 bowl campaign!
New Orleans | Poinsettia | Hawaii | Motor City
NEW ORLEANS BOWL - Southern Miss vs Troy
December 21 - 7:15 PM CST ESPN TV - New Orleans, LA
The matchup...
Southern Mississippi comes into this game on a four-game winning streak which surprised everyone and got the Golden Eagles back to bowl eligibility at 6-6. Considering one of those games was against September darling East Carolina 21-3, Troy will not be lulled into a sense of sleep by this opponent.
On the other hand, this game does look like quite the mismatch with this Troy Trojan team, who is 8-4 but lost to LSU, Oklahoma State, and Ohio State on the road. If not for absolute collapses, Troy would be 10-2 and riding a nine game winning streak. Troy is also a conference champion, which shows they do not overlook the small guys like Soutern Miss.
When Southern Miss has the ball...
Southern Miss had a very respectable offense in coach Larry Fedora's first season. The Trojans will have multiple weapons to worry about, including freshman QB Austin Davis and freshman WR DeAndre Brown. This young dynamic duo connected on about 6 receptions and one touchdown per game.
Troy's defense is very stout though. Outside the LSU collapse, Troy has really shut down many different offensive styles and looks in the past month. Having seen phenom talent like Terrelle Pryor and Dez Bryant should have the Trojans prepared for Davis and Brown. Look for the Trojan defense to really make or break this game.
When Troy has the ball...
As good as the Golden Eagle offense is, the Trojans may have an even better offensive unit. The key problem to defending Troy is the unpredictability of the looks they can give you. RB DeJuan Harris can play the power game, while WR Jerrel Jernigan has thrown the ball on quite a few gimmickly plays this season. You know an offense is good when a starting quarterback (Jamie Hampton) is lost in the middle of the season and the team doesn't miss a beat.
The key to Southern Mississippi's late season resurgence was a new philosophy on defense, one that brings a fair amount of pressure and takes a lot of risks. This strategy paid off with the load of seniors the Eagles have in the backfield. Nevertheless, it has been a long time since Southern Miss played an offense this talented and varied.
Star watch...
The star of this game was not even a starter in early October, but Troy QB Levi Brown has made quite the mark in the latter half of his junior season. Throwing for nearly 1800 yards and 14 touchdowns is a decent season, but incredible when considering it happened in six games. Brown will throw the occassional interception, but he has enough saavy to not put himself in too many bad situations.
Deciding factor...
Despite their experience, the Southern Mississippi defense just cannot compare to the Troy offense. While Southern Miss will likely struggle to put up points, expect there to not be as many problems the other direction. Both teams come in with momentum defensively, but there is still a key difference in these defenses that will change the game.
POINSETTIA BOWL - Boise State vs TCU
December 23 - 7:00 PM CST ESPN TV - San Diego, CA
The matchup...
While some may criticize the New Orleans Bowl for not having a fantastic matchup, there's nobody in the country that should say the same about the Poinsettia Bowl. Quite simply, this game matches the best two teams left out of the BCS mix from non-BCS conferences. TCU lost two understandable games to Oklahoma and Utah, while Boise State went undefeated again.
As a matter of fact, Boise State probably deserved a BCS bowl at-large given their history. Nevertheless, a dream matchup against Utah would not be all that different from what we have with TCU. If you must limit yourself to one pre-Christmas game, this has to be the choice.
When Boise State has the ball...
The Broncos were efficient as usual this season, putting up nearly 40 points per game. Yes, Ian Johnson is still racking up yards for BSU, but he now has a running mate in sophomore Jeremy Avery who can carry the load. The key will be the offensive line giving freshman QB Kellen Moore time to operate.
The Broncos will need to bring their trick plays though, as TCU boasts the best rushing defense in the country and perhaps the best defense outside of the USC Trojans. DE Jerry Hughes leads the country in sacks and leads the strong defensive front for the Horned Frogs. Only time will tell if the Boise State O-line can handle this high caliber unit.
When TCU has the ball...
The Horned Frog offense has been good, but the primary problem is inconsistency. Of course when your defense never gives up more than 14 points, one questions the need for consistency. Still, this game could be left in the hands of QB Andy Dalton, and his history seems to indicate he will shrink from the spotlight in big games. This is a trend that will need to break if the TCU offense hopes to break the game open against the tricky Broncos.
The Bronco defense statistically looks nearly as good as TCU, but nobody would mistake the real life Broncos for the Horned Frogs or Trojans. The primary problem for coach Chris Petersen (other than fending off job offers) is getting his primarily youthful defense to grow from the regular season and carry some intensity over to the bowl game. Bowl games this big can be distracting, even for a program used to BCS appearances in the recent past.
Star watch...
In a game with some inconsistent units, the one constant has been TCU's great defense. As mentioned previously, Jerry Hughes leads the nation in sacks and he does it by completely dominating double teams. Even when Hughes does not get to the ball, he still opens up holes for other defenders. He also happens to be the best pro prospect in this game, if you are interested in next-level players.
Deciding factor...
The TCU defense and the Boise State offense are proven, so most likely it will be the other units that decide the game. TCU missed a couple of field goals against Utah that cost them the game, but thankfully this game may not be close if the Horned Frog offense starts rolling early. Furthermore, Boise State has not played in a really close game outside of the Nevada game, so their inexperience will doom them even if it is close. TCU has all the intangibles needed to win a game like this.
HAWAII BOWL - Hawaii vs Notre Dame
December 24 - 7:00 PM CST ESPN TV - Honolulu, HI
The matchup...
A year after the Hawaii Bowl lost their mainstay and home team Warriors to the BCS, the boys are back for their usual home bowl game in 2008. This year will be special though for more reasons that the Warriors, as Notre Dame makes a trip to the islands for the first time in decades. More compelling storylines than usual out west this year.
This would seem to be the right kind of matchup for Notre Dame to end that horrific 18 year bowl drought, but then again, Hawaii plays a whole lot different and better at home. Plus, Hawaii finished second in the conference after a rough opening stretch, so the Warriors are on much more of a roll than the stumbling Fighting Irish.
When Hawaii has the ball...
The Warriors are very weak running the ball, which is good news for Notre Dame. However, Hawaii has enough talent to be relatively one-dimensional by spreading your defensive backfield out and letting the quarterback make the right decisions. While there may be no Colt Brennan, Greg Alexander has been solid this season in the Warrior pass-happy attack.
In this matchup, Hawaii may still look to run despite their lack of success to date. Notre Dame is abysmal against the run, and a lot of these problems stem from the defensive line. A unit that should be jelling and pushing back on offensive lines just looks inexperienced and unsure. When you cannot keep Syracuse off the ball, there's a serious problem. Look for Hawaii to be more diverse than usual.
When Notre Dame has the ball...
Again with Charlie Weis, the talent is there. He just has to find a way to use it well. QB Jimmy Clausen sturggled down the stretch and throws a lot of interceptions. Despite these issues, a healthy WR Michael Floyd's return should pay big dividends for the passing game.
The other good news for Irish fans: Hawaii struggles sometime more than Notre Dame defensively. The passing lanes will be open, even if Hawaii brings pressure. Notre Dame has not gotten a lot of success running the ball, so expect another arial assault in Hawaii.
Star watch...
The time is now for Jimmy Clausen. The Notre Dame quarterback was heralded as the next big thing following Brady Quinn, but the team has struggled under his leadership in the first two years. Notre Dame really wants to break the bowl loss streak, but only Clausen will have the game essentially in his own hands.
Deciding factor...
How high the scoreboard gets. If Hawaii puts a lot of points on the board (say, more than 30), there's no way Notre Dame will keep up. The key will be Notre Dame's defense holding Hawaii to a couple scores, giving their own offense time to win the game.
MOTOR CITY BOWL - Florida Atlantic vs Central Michigan
December 26 - 7:00 PM CST ESPN TV - Detroit, MI
The matchup...
There's no use lying to you readers. If you tune in for this game, you will probably tune in for the other three above for sure. The Motor City bowl had a chance to steal a Ball State-Boise State matchup with the Big Ten not providing a team, but negotiations fell through and Ball State lost anyways.
So instead of that blockbuster, Detroit fans will welcome back Central Michigan again, this time to play Florida Atlantic. FAU won their first ever bowl game last season, and the Owls are hot coming into this contest. Furthermore, both teams light up the scoreboard. On second thought, a lot of people might tune in to this contest if they are saavy and like points!
When Florida Atlantic has the ball...
Florida Atlantic had some trouble keeping up with opposing offenses earlier in the season, but QB Rusty Smith got the ball rolling well in his third season of action. RB Charles Pierre leads a stable of good running backs, but the Owls move the ball primarily with the passing game.
Central Michigan had some trouble stopping any kind of offense this season, routinely giving up 28 or more points. Lowly Eastern Michigan had their way with the Chippewa defense, so expect Central Michigan to adjust with the four weeks of practice leading up to this game. The home crowd will help keep the defense pumped up as well.
When Central Michigan has the ball...
QB Dan LeFevour has helped lead Central Michigan to a third straight Motor City Bowl, and his familiarity with the setting can only help in a game like this. LeFevour is a dual-threat and forces defenses to spy on him or pay the consequences. WR Antonio Brown will have a real chance to step up in the spotlight this game after a terrific season.
The best news of all for the Chippewas might be the defense they are facing. Legendary coach Howard Schnellenberger has the prgram headed in the right direction, but his defense lacks real good talent or experience. Giving up 50 points in their finale against Florida International sends up just as many red flags as the CMU-EMU game. Look for a wide-open shootout.
Star watch...
QB Dan LeFevour has certainly not hit his lofty statistics of he past two seasons, but he developed from a pocket passer into a dual-threat this season. That makes it a lot harder to stop the Chippewa offense, and it also keeps him in the spotlight all the time. Thus, LeFevour is the star to watch this game.
Deciding factor...
It all comes down to which defense wants to show up enough to get a couple of stops. That will literally be enough in a game that may end up like the 2007 showdown between CMU and Purdue (Boilers won 51-48). Florida Atlantic finished strong, but Central Michigan has too many experienced veterans who know how to handle these shootouts. CMU's defense makes the difference in this one.
New Orleans | Poinsettia | Hawaii | Motor City
NEW ORLEANS BOWL - Southern Miss vs Troy
December 21 - 7:15 PM CST ESPN TV - New Orleans, LA
The matchup...
Southern Mississippi comes into this game on a four-game winning streak which surprised everyone and got the Golden Eagles back to bowl eligibility at 6-6. Considering one of those games was against September darling East Carolina 21-3, Troy will not be lulled into a sense of sleep by this opponent.
On the other hand, this game does look like quite the mismatch with this Troy Trojan team, who is 8-4 but lost to LSU, Oklahoma State, and Ohio State on the road. If not for absolute collapses, Troy would be 10-2 and riding a nine game winning streak. Troy is also a conference champion, which shows they do not overlook the small guys like Soutern Miss.
When Southern Miss has the ball...
Southern Miss had a very respectable offense in coach Larry Fedora's first season. The Trojans will have multiple weapons to worry about, including freshman QB Austin Davis and freshman WR DeAndre Brown. This young dynamic duo connected on about 6 receptions and one touchdown per game.
Troy's defense is very stout though. Outside the LSU collapse, Troy has really shut down many different offensive styles and looks in the past month. Having seen phenom talent like Terrelle Pryor and Dez Bryant should have the Trojans prepared for Davis and Brown. Look for the Trojan defense to really make or break this game.
When Troy has the ball...
As good as the Golden Eagle offense is, the Trojans may have an even better offensive unit. The key problem to defending Troy is the unpredictability of the looks they can give you. RB DeJuan Harris can play the power game, while WR Jerrel Jernigan has thrown the ball on quite a few gimmickly plays this season. You know an offense is good when a starting quarterback (Jamie Hampton) is lost in the middle of the season and the team doesn't miss a beat.
The key to Southern Mississippi's late season resurgence was a new philosophy on defense, one that brings a fair amount of pressure and takes a lot of risks. This strategy paid off with the load of seniors the Eagles have in the backfield. Nevertheless, it has been a long time since Southern Miss played an offense this talented and varied.
Star watch...
The star of this game was not even a starter in early October, but Troy QB Levi Brown has made quite the mark in the latter half of his junior season. Throwing for nearly 1800 yards and 14 touchdowns is a decent season, but incredible when considering it happened in six games. Brown will throw the occassional interception, but he has enough saavy to not put himself in too many bad situations.
Deciding factor...
Despite their experience, the Southern Mississippi defense just cannot compare to the Troy offense. While Southern Miss will likely struggle to put up points, expect there to not be as many problems the other direction. Both teams come in with momentum defensively, but there is still a key difference in these defenses that will change the game.
POINSETTIA BOWL - Boise State vs TCU
December 23 - 7:00 PM CST ESPN TV - San Diego, CA
The matchup...
While some may criticize the New Orleans Bowl for not having a fantastic matchup, there's nobody in the country that should say the same about the Poinsettia Bowl. Quite simply, this game matches the best two teams left out of the BCS mix from non-BCS conferences. TCU lost two understandable games to Oklahoma and Utah, while Boise State went undefeated again.
As a matter of fact, Boise State probably deserved a BCS bowl at-large given their history. Nevertheless, a dream matchup against Utah would not be all that different from what we have with TCU. If you must limit yourself to one pre-Christmas game, this has to be the choice.
When Boise State has the ball...
The Broncos were efficient as usual this season, putting up nearly 40 points per game. Yes, Ian Johnson is still racking up yards for BSU, but he now has a running mate in sophomore Jeremy Avery who can carry the load. The key will be the offensive line giving freshman QB Kellen Moore time to operate.
The Broncos will need to bring their trick plays though, as TCU boasts the best rushing defense in the country and perhaps the best defense outside of the USC Trojans. DE Jerry Hughes leads the country in sacks and leads the strong defensive front for the Horned Frogs. Only time will tell if the Boise State O-line can handle this high caliber unit.
When TCU has the ball...
The Horned Frog offense has been good, but the primary problem is inconsistency. Of course when your defense never gives up more than 14 points, one questions the need for consistency. Still, this game could be left in the hands of QB Andy Dalton, and his history seems to indicate he will shrink from the spotlight in big games. This is a trend that will need to break if the TCU offense hopes to break the game open against the tricky Broncos.
The Bronco defense statistically looks nearly as good as TCU, but nobody would mistake the real life Broncos for the Horned Frogs or Trojans. The primary problem for coach Chris Petersen (other than fending off job offers) is getting his primarily youthful defense to grow from the regular season and carry some intensity over to the bowl game. Bowl games this big can be distracting, even for a program used to BCS appearances in the recent past.
Star watch...
In a game with some inconsistent units, the one constant has been TCU's great defense. As mentioned previously, Jerry Hughes leads the nation in sacks and he does it by completely dominating double teams. Even when Hughes does not get to the ball, he still opens up holes for other defenders. He also happens to be the best pro prospect in this game, if you are interested in next-level players.
Deciding factor...
The TCU defense and the Boise State offense are proven, so most likely it will be the other units that decide the game. TCU missed a couple of field goals against Utah that cost them the game, but thankfully this game may not be close if the Horned Frog offense starts rolling early. Furthermore, Boise State has not played in a really close game outside of the Nevada game, so their inexperience will doom them even if it is close. TCU has all the intangibles needed to win a game like this.
HAWAII BOWL - Hawaii vs Notre Dame
December 24 - 7:00 PM CST ESPN TV - Honolulu, HI
The matchup...
A year after the Hawaii Bowl lost their mainstay and home team Warriors to the BCS, the boys are back for their usual home bowl game in 2008. This year will be special though for more reasons that the Warriors, as Notre Dame makes a trip to the islands for the first time in decades. More compelling storylines than usual out west this year.
This would seem to be the right kind of matchup for Notre Dame to end that horrific 18 year bowl drought, but then again, Hawaii plays a whole lot different and better at home. Plus, Hawaii finished second in the conference after a rough opening stretch, so the Warriors are on much more of a roll than the stumbling Fighting Irish.
When Hawaii has the ball...
The Warriors are very weak running the ball, which is good news for Notre Dame. However, Hawaii has enough talent to be relatively one-dimensional by spreading your defensive backfield out and letting the quarterback make the right decisions. While there may be no Colt Brennan, Greg Alexander has been solid this season in the Warrior pass-happy attack.
In this matchup, Hawaii may still look to run despite their lack of success to date. Notre Dame is abysmal against the run, and a lot of these problems stem from the defensive line. A unit that should be jelling and pushing back on offensive lines just looks inexperienced and unsure. When you cannot keep Syracuse off the ball, there's a serious problem. Look for Hawaii to be more diverse than usual.
When Notre Dame has the ball...
Again with Charlie Weis, the talent is there. He just has to find a way to use it well. QB Jimmy Clausen sturggled down the stretch and throws a lot of interceptions. Despite these issues, a healthy WR Michael Floyd's return should pay big dividends for the passing game.
The other good news for Irish fans: Hawaii struggles sometime more than Notre Dame defensively. The passing lanes will be open, even if Hawaii brings pressure. Notre Dame has not gotten a lot of success running the ball, so expect another arial assault in Hawaii.
Star watch...
The time is now for Jimmy Clausen. The Notre Dame quarterback was heralded as the next big thing following Brady Quinn, but the team has struggled under his leadership in the first two years. Notre Dame really wants to break the bowl loss streak, but only Clausen will have the game essentially in his own hands.
Deciding factor...
How high the scoreboard gets. If Hawaii puts a lot of points on the board (say, more than 30), there's no way Notre Dame will keep up. The key will be Notre Dame's defense holding Hawaii to a couple scores, giving their own offense time to win the game.
MOTOR CITY BOWL - Florida Atlantic vs Central Michigan
December 26 - 7:00 PM CST ESPN TV - Detroit, MI
The matchup...
There's no use lying to you readers. If you tune in for this game, you will probably tune in for the other three above for sure. The Motor City bowl had a chance to steal a Ball State-Boise State matchup with the Big Ten not providing a team, but negotiations fell through and Ball State lost anyways.
So instead of that blockbuster, Detroit fans will welcome back Central Michigan again, this time to play Florida Atlantic. FAU won their first ever bowl game last season, and the Owls are hot coming into this contest. Furthermore, both teams light up the scoreboard. On second thought, a lot of people might tune in to this contest if they are saavy and like points!
When Florida Atlantic has the ball...
Florida Atlantic had some trouble keeping up with opposing offenses earlier in the season, but QB Rusty Smith got the ball rolling well in his third season of action. RB Charles Pierre leads a stable of good running backs, but the Owls move the ball primarily with the passing game.
Central Michigan had some trouble stopping any kind of offense this season, routinely giving up 28 or more points. Lowly Eastern Michigan had their way with the Chippewa defense, so expect Central Michigan to adjust with the four weeks of practice leading up to this game. The home crowd will help keep the defense pumped up as well.
When Central Michigan has the ball...
QB Dan LeFevour has helped lead Central Michigan to a third straight Motor City Bowl, and his familiarity with the setting can only help in a game like this. LeFevour is a dual-threat and forces defenses to spy on him or pay the consequences. WR Antonio Brown will have a real chance to step up in the spotlight this game after a terrific season.
The best news of all for the Chippewas might be the defense they are facing. Legendary coach Howard Schnellenberger has the prgram headed in the right direction, but his defense lacks real good talent or experience. Giving up 50 points in their finale against Florida International sends up just as many red flags as the CMU-EMU game. Look for a wide-open shootout.
Star watch...
QB Dan LeFevour has certainly not hit his lofty statistics of he past two seasons, but he developed from a pocket passer into a dual-threat this season. That makes it a lot harder to stop the Chippewa offense, and it also keeps him in the spotlight all the time. Thus, LeFevour is the star to watch this game.
Deciding factor...
It all comes down to which defense wants to show up enough to get a couple of stops. That will literally be enough in a game that may end up like the 2007 showdown between CMU and Purdue (Boilers won 51-48). Florida Atlantic finished strong, but Central Michigan has too many experienced veterans who know how to handle these shootouts. CMU's defense makes the difference in this one.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Championship Week 2008: A.K.A. BCS Semifinals
It's been a long road from the end of August to the beginning of December, but here we stand on the cusp of another bowl season. This is the final regular week of articles from the SCS staff and the last chance to make those moves in your pickem pool before we all try to prove how well we know the bowls. Essentially those who beg for a playoff have their semifinals this week, and nobody would be complaining about the BCS if Oklahoma and Texas could rematch in the Big XII Championship. As it is, Missouri will play proxy for Texas and the other top 3 teams will battle it out this weekend to move one step closer to crystal football. Before we turn our attention to the upcoming limited slate of games and bowl season, let's look back at 2008 and discuss the major awards coming up as well as the conference surprises/disappointments.
ACC - This league featured the craziest and most competitive set of overall teams, as 10 of the league's 12 teams finished 5-3 or 4-4 in conference. Nobody could say Virginia at 3-5 or Duke at 1-7 in coach Cutliffe's first season were all that disappointing either. Surprise of the year goes to Boston College, who looked to be out of the conference race while breaking in new starters all over the field, including at QB and RB. Still, the Eagles are back for a second-straight ACC Championship. Most disappointing was Clemson, who took the most talented team in the league and barely scraped out bowl eligibility. Player of the year will go to Georgia Tech RB Jonathan Dwyer, who led an outstanding rushing attack in the new-look Yellowjacket offense. Coach of the yeat honors go to Florida State's Bobby Bowden, who came awfully close to another BCS berth when most counted him out for good.
BIG XII - Yet again, the conference turned into a tale of two divisions. It was the best of times (in the south), it was the worst of times (in the north), etc. Oklahoma may not deserve to be in the Big XII Championship, but rules are rules and it was a three-way tie no matter how unworthy fans think Texas Tech is. Surprise of the year is clearly the Red Raiders, who exceeded all expectations at 11-1 and are sadly going to be left out of a deserving BCS bowl. Disappointment of the year goes to Kansas State, who appeared poised to get back in the bowl mix with a 4-2 start but lost five in a row and lost their coach along the way. Player of the year is a tough choice, but Texas QB Colt McCoy has overcome the sophomore blues to become a dual-threat nightmare with 42 total touchdowns. Coach of the year is Mike Leach of Texas Tech.
BIG EAST - This conference seems to grow a new identity every year, and we'll call 2008 the year of the Bearcat. Not Bobcat Mr. Obama, Bearcat. Surprise of the year is your conference champion Cincinnati. A program on the ropes 3 years ago has truly benefited from great coaching and the jump to a BCS conference, and now will share the BCS spotlight in January. Disappointment of the year seemed locked up by Rutgers, but a furious finish gives the dishonor to Louisville who will finish dead last in the conference. Player of the year is awarded to West Virginia QB Pat White, who proved he is still amazing even without the support of a good offensive line or a star running back (though Noel Devine will be great soon). Coach of the year goes to Brian Kelly for dealing with the quarterback carousel and surviving.
BIG TEN - The league that has received an at-large bid to the BCS an outstanding seven times in ten seasons appears poised to do so again after Oregon opened the door for Ohio State to win the debate over Boise State. Surprise of the year is conference co-champion Penn State, picked to finish in the middle of the pack before showing off a new HD Spread offense and a dominating defense. Disappointment of the year is Illinois, who took two steps back to no bowl game after getting a surprising Rose Bowl berth in 2007. Player of the year is RB Shonn Greene from Iowa, who rushed for over 100 yards every single game and etched himself as a first-round draft pick this year. Coach of the year is Mark Dantonio of Michigan State. While winning the games you are supposed to is not flashy, it does give you NEw Year's Day bowl bids and opportunities at BCS bowls. Given a 20 year Rose Bowl drought, it's good to have MSU competitive again.
NON-BCS - Yeah these get lumped together, much like the BCS lumps all these teams together into one 50 team conference with no more than 1 bid to the big dance. Surprise of the year was Ball State, who took over a MAC recently dominated by directional Michigan schools. Disappointment of the year was East Carolina, who started with promising wins and will stumble to a likely 5 loss finish. Player of the year is Tulsa QB David Johnson, who went from backup to main man his senior season and led Tulsa back to another C-USA title game. Coach of the year is Kyle Wittingham of Utah, a school with BCS history that will be going back trying to make another statement.
PAC-10 - Surprise, surprise...look who's ascended to the outright conference title, their 7th title in a row. While there are some great programs in college football, USC is the best of the decade and proved it against the only other team with an argument in September. The Rose Bowl should actually be good this year, so pay attention! Surprise of the year is Oregon State, who has no reason to hang their heads after coming within one Civil War of the BCS. The Beavers did more with less than any other team in the conference. Disappointment of the year is shared by Washington and Washington State, as there's never been more terrible play from that state. Player of the year is RB Jacquizz Rodgers from Oregon State, who was probably the main reason the Ducks won on Saturday and sent USC to the Rose. Coach of the Year again goes to Pete Carroll at USC. The Trojans just keep reloading and fear nobody, which bodes well for future seasons.
SEC - Do you realize LSU and Tennessee are tied in league standings? In a down year for the SEC, weird things like that have happened. Still, the conference will play for a third-straight national title. Surprise of the year is no question: Alabama. The undefeated Tide roll into the SEC Championship despite being completely off the radar in August. Disappointment of the year is LSU, who apparently lost the will to win after the Alabama game. Not too many national champions look that bad. Player of the year is QB Tim Tebow of Florida, who may not have the stats to win the Heisman, but he is the MVP of the best team in the league. Coach of the year is Nick Saban, who overcame a ridiculously tough conference to rise to the cream of the crop again.
A couple interesting notes regarding Boise State came in this week as they polished off a 12-0 season. Despite their BCS Bowl prowess, the Broncos will likely be left out in favor of 10-2 Ohio State. The Fiesta Bowl could put together a dream Utah-Boise State matchup, but the allure of grabbing Texas or Oklahoma in this season is too great to set up such a matchup, at which point Ohio State becomes the better money-making choice. Assuming BSU is out of the BCS, the MAC and WAC are negotiating hard with their top tier bowl games to get Boise State and Ball State on the field to play in a battle of undefeateds. Most likely if it happens is the Motor City Bowl, who would have Ball State already and an open slot left by the Big Ten if OSU is the BCS pick. This would be a huge win for both conferences and both conference champions, so I hope the politics can be worked out and the revenue shared so that we have a non-BCS Championship of sorts. Speaking of the BCS...
FINAL BCS BOWL PROJECTIONS
BCS Championship - Oklahoma vs. Florida
Fiesta - Texas vs. Utah
Sugar - Alabama vs. Ohio State
Orange - Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Rose - Penn State vs. USC
The third best game of the week is a repeat show of last year's ACC Championship. For the record, Boston College could not win that game. The conference with a bunch of above-average teams is playing for the right to play Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl, a winnable matchup by anyone's sense of the imagination. This matchup is all about defense, as these two boast top-10 ranked defenses. Boston College is especially rough on the running game, which will mean Hokies QB Tyrod Taylor will have to step up once again for the Hokies to repeat. Boston College QB Chris Crane is prone to mistakes and interceptions, so look for the opportunistic Virginia Tech defense to grab a couple key turnovers. Virginia Tech may have less talent, but they are better in special teams and have a better field general at quarterback. Hokies repeat with a 10 point win.
The second game of the week is the Big XII Championship, another rematch from last year as Oklahoma plays Missouri. Unlike last season, both teams needed tiebreakers to be here this season. While Missouri QB Chase Daniel has faded from Heisman contention this season after being a finalist last year, he is just as impressive athletically as the Heisman frontrunner he'll be facing, Sam Bradford. Missouri could stay close if their defense gets 3-4 stops on Oklahoma, as the Sooner defense is nothing to shout about. Unfortunately, the Tigers are a little dinged up at this point in the season and it showed in last week's loss to Kansas. Missouri will likely welcome a peaceful trip to San Antonio after this one, OU by 27.
The top game of the week is the play-in game or semifinal BCS game, the SEC Championship between Florida and Alabama. The key factor to this game may be Florida wideout Percy Harvin's ankle sprain, as losing the number one receiver against the strong Tide defense is a recipe for disaster. Don't believe me, look at the 2006 BCS Championship which Florida won handily when top OSU receiver Ted Ginn Jr. left the game in the first quarter. Florida has a lot of veterans who have been ther and done that, and it has been impressive the run of 7 wins they put together post-Mississippi shocker. Still, Alabama just seems to find a way to win games and may have that magic that propelled other unlikely teams to national titles. While I think Alabama should shut down the high-octane Gators, there will be a trick play that decides the game. Urban Meyer is better than Nick Saban at those, so Florida wins by 1.
2008 GOTW Record: 22-20
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 - Week 14
1. Alabama (12-0)
2. Florida (11-1)
3. Texas (11-1)
4. Oklahoma (11-1)
5. Utah (12-0)
6. Boise State (12-0)
7. USC (10-1)
8. Penn State (11-1)
9. Texas Tech (11-1)
10. Ohio State (10-2)
Just Missed: Ball State, Cincinnati, TCU, Michigan State, Oregon
And with that, I bid adieu to my regular readers this season. Thanks for reading every week or occassionally, and don't forget to drop by and check out our SCS Bowl previews throughout bowl season. As always, please send email feedback to the email linked above, as I love hearing from you. Have a great holiday season and we'll see you back when this column returns in August 2009.
ACC - This league featured the craziest and most competitive set of overall teams, as 10 of the league's 12 teams finished 5-3 or 4-4 in conference. Nobody could say Virginia at 3-5 or Duke at 1-7 in coach Cutliffe's first season were all that disappointing either. Surprise of the year goes to Boston College, who looked to be out of the conference race while breaking in new starters all over the field, including at QB and RB. Still, the Eagles are back for a second-straight ACC Championship. Most disappointing was Clemson, who took the most talented team in the league and barely scraped out bowl eligibility. Player of the year will go to Georgia Tech RB Jonathan Dwyer, who led an outstanding rushing attack in the new-look Yellowjacket offense. Coach of the yeat honors go to Florida State's Bobby Bowden, who came awfully close to another BCS berth when most counted him out for good.
BIG XII - Yet again, the conference turned into a tale of two divisions. It was the best of times (in the south), it was the worst of times (in the north), etc. Oklahoma may not deserve to be in the Big XII Championship, but rules are rules and it was a three-way tie no matter how unworthy fans think Texas Tech is. Surprise of the year is clearly the Red Raiders, who exceeded all expectations at 11-1 and are sadly going to be left out of a deserving BCS bowl. Disappointment of the year goes to Kansas State, who appeared poised to get back in the bowl mix with a 4-2 start but lost five in a row and lost their coach along the way. Player of the year is a tough choice, but Texas QB Colt McCoy has overcome the sophomore blues to become a dual-threat nightmare with 42 total touchdowns. Coach of the year is Mike Leach of Texas Tech.
BIG EAST - This conference seems to grow a new identity every year, and we'll call 2008 the year of the Bearcat. Not Bobcat Mr. Obama, Bearcat. Surprise of the year is your conference champion Cincinnati. A program on the ropes 3 years ago has truly benefited from great coaching and the jump to a BCS conference, and now will share the BCS spotlight in January. Disappointment of the year seemed locked up by Rutgers, but a furious finish gives the dishonor to Louisville who will finish dead last in the conference. Player of the year is awarded to West Virginia QB Pat White, who proved he is still amazing even without the support of a good offensive line or a star running back (though Noel Devine will be great soon). Coach of the year goes to Brian Kelly for dealing with the quarterback carousel and surviving.
BIG TEN - The league that has received an at-large bid to the BCS an outstanding seven times in ten seasons appears poised to do so again after Oregon opened the door for Ohio State to win the debate over Boise State. Surprise of the year is conference co-champion Penn State, picked to finish in the middle of the pack before showing off a new HD Spread offense and a dominating defense. Disappointment of the year is Illinois, who took two steps back to no bowl game after getting a surprising Rose Bowl berth in 2007. Player of the year is RB Shonn Greene from Iowa, who rushed for over 100 yards every single game and etched himself as a first-round draft pick this year. Coach of the year is Mark Dantonio of Michigan State. While winning the games you are supposed to is not flashy, it does give you NEw Year's Day bowl bids and opportunities at BCS bowls. Given a 20 year Rose Bowl drought, it's good to have MSU competitive again.
NON-BCS - Yeah these get lumped together, much like the BCS lumps all these teams together into one 50 team conference with no more than 1 bid to the big dance. Surprise of the year was Ball State, who took over a MAC recently dominated by directional Michigan schools. Disappointment of the year was East Carolina, who started with promising wins and will stumble to a likely 5 loss finish. Player of the year is Tulsa QB David Johnson, who went from backup to main man his senior season and led Tulsa back to another C-USA title game. Coach of the year is Kyle Wittingham of Utah, a school with BCS history that will be going back trying to make another statement.
PAC-10 - Surprise, surprise...look who's ascended to the outright conference title, their 7th title in a row. While there are some great programs in college football, USC is the best of the decade and proved it against the only other team with an argument in September. The Rose Bowl should actually be good this year, so pay attention! Surprise of the year is Oregon State, who has no reason to hang their heads after coming within one Civil War of the BCS. The Beavers did more with less than any other team in the conference. Disappointment of the year is shared by Washington and Washington State, as there's never been more terrible play from that state. Player of the year is RB Jacquizz Rodgers from Oregon State, who was probably the main reason the Ducks won on Saturday and sent USC to the Rose. Coach of the Year again goes to Pete Carroll at USC. The Trojans just keep reloading and fear nobody, which bodes well for future seasons.
SEC - Do you realize LSU and Tennessee are tied in league standings? In a down year for the SEC, weird things like that have happened. Still, the conference will play for a third-straight national title. Surprise of the year is no question: Alabama. The undefeated Tide roll into the SEC Championship despite being completely off the radar in August. Disappointment of the year is LSU, who apparently lost the will to win after the Alabama game. Not too many national champions look that bad. Player of the year is QB Tim Tebow of Florida, who may not have the stats to win the Heisman, but he is the MVP of the best team in the league. Coach of the year is Nick Saban, who overcame a ridiculously tough conference to rise to the cream of the crop again.
A couple interesting notes regarding Boise State came in this week as they polished off a 12-0 season. Despite their BCS Bowl prowess, the Broncos will likely be left out in favor of 10-2 Ohio State. The Fiesta Bowl could put together a dream Utah-Boise State matchup, but the allure of grabbing Texas or Oklahoma in this season is too great to set up such a matchup, at which point Ohio State becomes the better money-making choice. Assuming BSU is out of the BCS, the MAC and WAC are negotiating hard with their top tier bowl games to get Boise State and Ball State on the field to play in a battle of undefeateds. Most likely if it happens is the Motor City Bowl, who would have Ball State already and an open slot left by the Big Ten if OSU is the BCS pick. This would be a huge win for both conferences and both conference champions, so I hope the politics can be worked out and the revenue shared so that we have a non-BCS Championship of sorts. Speaking of the BCS...
FINAL BCS BOWL PROJECTIONS
BCS Championship - Oklahoma vs. Florida
Fiesta - Texas vs. Utah
Sugar - Alabama vs. Ohio State
Orange - Virginia Tech vs. Cincinnati
Rose - Penn State vs. USC
The third best game of the week is a repeat show of last year's ACC Championship. For the record, Boston College could not win that game. The conference with a bunch of above-average teams is playing for the right to play Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl, a winnable matchup by anyone's sense of the imagination. This matchup is all about defense, as these two boast top-10 ranked defenses. Boston College is especially rough on the running game, which will mean Hokies QB Tyrod Taylor will have to step up once again for the Hokies to repeat. Boston College QB Chris Crane is prone to mistakes and interceptions, so look for the opportunistic Virginia Tech defense to grab a couple key turnovers. Virginia Tech may have less talent, but they are better in special teams and have a better field general at quarterback. Hokies repeat with a 10 point win.
The second game of the week is the Big XII Championship, another rematch from last year as Oklahoma plays Missouri. Unlike last season, both teams needed tiebreakers to be here this season. While Missouri QB Chase Daniel has faded from Heisman contention this season after being a finalist last year, he is just as impressive athletically as the Heisman frontrunner he'll be facing, Sam Bradford. Missouri could stay close if their defense gets 3-4 stops on Oklahoma, as the Sooner defense is nothing to shout about. Unfortunately, the Tigers are a little dinged up at this point in the season and it showed in last week's loss to Kansas. Missouri will likely welcome a peaceful trip to San Antonio after this one, OU by 27.
The top game of the week is the play-in game or semifinal BCS game, the SEC Championship between Florida and Alabama. The key factor to this game may be Florida wideout Percy Harvin's ankle sprain, as losing the number one receiver against the strong Tide defense is a recipe for disaster. Don't believe me, look at the 2006 BCS Championship which Florida won handily when top OSU receiver Ted Ginn Jr. left the game in the first quarter. Florida has a lot of veterans who have been ther and done that, and it has been impressive the run of 7 wins they put together post-Mississippi shocker. Still, Alabama just seems to find a way to win games and may have that magic that propelled other unlikely teams to national titles. While I think Alabama should shut down the high-octane Gators, there will be a trick play that decides the game. Urban Meyer is better than Nick Saban at those, so Florida wins by 1.
2008 GOTW Record: 22-20
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 - Week 14
1. Alabama (12-0)
2. Florida (11-1)
3. Texas (11-1)
4. Oklahoma (11-1)
5. Utah (12-0)
6. Boise State (12-0)
7. USC (10-1)
8. Penn State (11-1)
9. Texas Tech (11-1)
10. Ohio State (10-2)
Just Missed: Ball State, Cincinnati, TCU, Michigan State, Oregon
And with that, I bid adieu to my regular readers this season. Thanks for reading every week or occassionally, and don't forget to drop by and check out our SCS Bowl previews throughout bowl season. As always, please send email feedback to the email linked above, as I love hearing from you. Have a great holiday season and we'll see you back when this column returns in August 2009.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Red Raiders Make a Mighty Mess of the BCS
Rivalry Saturday? Showdown Saturday? Last weekend would have been more appropriately titled, Blowout Saturday. What's left in the rubble of blowouts all across the country is a little more clarity on the ten BCS participants, and a whole lot of fogginess near the top 2. The most important blowout on Saturday was Oklahoma beating Texas Tech 65-21. The Red Raiders drop into a three-way tie with Oklahoma and Texas atop the most competitive division in Division I-A football, and now it appears the BCS will determine who will play in the Big XII title game as well as the BCS Championship. Before looking at the rest of the weekend that was, now is a great time to make the case for all three Big XII South teams vying for the spot that leads to a conference championship and a date in Miami for the national championship.
First off we have current BCS #2 Texas. The Longhorns will boast of their tough stretch of schedule that saw them face Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Texas Tech in consecutive weeks. Texas came out of that murderer's row 3-1 and missed 4-0 by the narrowest of margins, one second in Lubbock. Texas has the narrowest loss of games between the three, and missed playing the two terrible North teams K-State and Iowa State. Texas is probably only competing with Oklahoma, so they will no doubt keep pointing to the 45-35 win in Dallas back in October. The Longhorns have a good argument for the South Division title.
Second on the docket is Oklahoma, the trendy team after dismantling Texas Tech. Now Oklahoma will have a hard time getting past the head-to-head with Texas, but that was a long time ago on a neutral field. This is a three-way tie, and Oklahoma would point out that they handily took care of the Red Raiders that Texas could not beat. Oklahoma will have the Oklahoma State game next week to help them have a great two week bump in the computer rankings, and maybe in the minds of voters as well. Oklahoma also pounded real teams out-of-conference, such as future Big East champion Cincinnati and MWC runner-up TCU. Oklahoma has been consistent all season and has never failed to put up 35 points, usually more than 50. Oklahoma probably has the better argument thanks to a stronger schedule than the Longhorns in a 3-way tie.
Lastly come the Red Raiders. Texas Tech faced their own murderer's row of Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma. Just like the Longhorns, they came up short only in the last game which was on the road. Texas Tech will not want to look at point spreads or time of losses, but instead will focus on their win over Texas. Will that be enough in a three-way tie to convince anybody? No! However, Texas Tech does have a trump card, that being Oklahoma State. In the games amongst the top 4 teams in the South, no road team has won yet. The last of those battles takes place on OSU's home field, and Oklahoma cannot just assume that's a win just yet. If the Cowboys win, Texas Tech is in the Big XII Championship thanks to beating Texas head-to-head. Make no mistake, the Red Raiders would jump back to #2 in the BCS if this plays out and they beat Missouri.
Conclusion: Still too foggy. I'll put my pick on the OSU-OU showdown below and my BCS Projections, but there's really no counting out anyone. Even if Oklahoma wins, they must get some style points to overcome Texas in the BCS thanks to the head-to-head bias against the Sooners. Hard to believe with one week to go in the regular season for the conference, so much is left to be decided.
As for the rest of college football world, you could've slept through some games on Saturday thanks to blowout city. In games that were supposed to be competitive, Utah crushed BYU 48-24, Penn State mauled Michigan State 49-18, Ohio State made a statement with a 42-7 win over Michigan, TCU crunched Air Force 44-10, North Carolina State shocked UNC 41-10, Florida State knocked over Maryland 37-3, and in the crusher of all crushers, Iowa shut the lights out in the Metrodome permanently with a 55-0 embarrassment of Minnesota. Where did the competitive balance and heated rivalries go? I suppose bright spots include Cincinnati and Oregon State blazing their trails to the BCS with narrow wins, but outside of those two, let's hope the next two weeks pay us back for the lack of November drama outside the ACC.
The coaching carousel had a very interesting development this week, and that is the re-hiring of Bill Snyder as Kansas State coach. Snyder coached the Wildcats to more wins in 17 seasons than they had the previous 54, and will be taking the reins from Ron Prince, who did not make it 3 seasons at KSU. This hire screams desperation, even if Snyder has the itch to coach again. Time will tell, but I cannot imagine Snyder becoming the next Bowden or Paterno, which means K-State just put off the inevitable growing pains that they should have rode out with Prince.
The BCS Projections this week changed a little. Penn State is your Big Ten champion, and thus gets slotted into the Rose Bowl. Ohio State gets bumped from the BCS, as does Miami after they dropped the slippery ACC ball. I see Oklahoma and Florida winning their respective conferences, and Utah will be the only at-large from a non-BCS conference thanks to Oregon State winning the Pac-10. Sorry Boise State, that's how it breaks this year. Of course I guess it's better to lose your spot to an 11-1 USC team than a 10-2 Ohio State, but still no Fiesta this year.
BCS Projections October 27, 2008 BCS Championship in Miami - Florida vs. Oklahoma Fiesta Bowl - Alabama vs. USC Sugar Bowl - Texas vs. Utah Orange Bowl - Boston College vs. Cincinnati Rose Bowl - Oregon State vs. Penn State
Just when I get back into the writer's pick-em race, I go and pick teams like Michigan State and Texas Tech, leading me to fall close to .500 on the season. Oh well, there's always bowl season. The third best game of the week was a tough choice, but assuming Florida continues to play well, I'll go with Maryland at Boston College. This ACC showdown will determine who steps up to join Florida State atop the division, and only Boston College will win the tiebreaker with the Seminoles for the championship game berth. Still, Maryland has played exactly the opposite of expected this season, crushing the hopes of great teams and losing to bad ones. Senior QB Chris Crane leads the Eagles in this year of growth and transition, and the underclassmen are starting to play like champions in November. Maryland has scored fewer points than it's given up despite a 7-4 record, but the offense has good athletes in QB Chris Turner and RB Da'Rel Scott. Maryland will probably win, but I think BC will make up for the disappointments of last season by protecting the home field and winning by 14.
In a week when Guns and Roses brought out an album for the first time in 15 years, it is fitting that we have "The Civil War" as the second-best game of the week, Oregon at Oregon State. With a win, Oregon State will benefit from that upset of USC and go to the Rose Bowl as champions of the Pac-10. Oregon can claim second place in the Pac-10 and drop their bitter rivals to third place with a win. For the Ducks, it will be all about controlling the clock with RBs Jeremiah Johnson and LeGarrette Blount. The headlines for Oregon State may go to Jacquizz Rodgers, but do not underestimate the passing game of OSU or the Beaver defense. Oregon State was battle-tested by BCS bound Penn State and Utah, and the team has come a long way from the 0-2 start. At Corvallis the Beavers have been dominant, and lately they just find ways to win games. OSU is a team of destiny, and while a rematch with Penn State may not be great for the Rose Bowl, it is what they will get after the Beavers cruise to a 3 point win.
Game of the week is clear, Oklahoma at Oklahoma State. Bedlam! Each team has a blistering offense, an underrated defense, and enough playmakers to make this a must-see. Don't even mention the fact that Oklahoma is playing for a national and conference title, while Oklahoma State would love to spoil OU's season and jump ahead of them in the Big XII bowl pecking order. The Oklahoma State defense contained Colt McCoy, but not Graham Harrell. For Oklahoma it was vice versa. Unfortunately for Cowboy fans, Sam Bradford and company are on such a roll right now that it seems unfair to put anybody but them and Florida in the BCS Championship until proven otherwise. OSU puts up a good struggle for a half, but Oklahoma rolls on to a much-needed 28 point win.
2008 GOTW Record: 20-19
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 - Week 13
1. Alabama (11-0)
2. Florida (10-1)
3. Texas (10-1)
4. Oklahoma (10-1)
5. Utah (12-0)
6. Boise State (11-0)
7. USC (9-1)
8. Texas Tech (10-1)
9. Penn State (11-1)
10. Ohio State (10-2)
Just Missed: Missouri, Ball State, Georgia, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State
Who could've guessed that this season, one week would have two OSU teams in the top two games of the week, neither involving Ohio State. Just how quirky 2008 has been! Although the Big Ten has shut down for the season, we've still got two weeks to go! We'll see you next week for my final regular season article, previewing the conference championships and taking our best guess at the BCS. Have a good weekend!
First off we have current BCS #2 Texas. The Longhorns will boast of their tough stretch of schedule that saw them face Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Missouri, and Texas Tech in consecutive weeks. Texas came out of that murderer's row 3-1 and missed 4-0 by the narrowest of margins, one second in Lubbock. Texas has the narrowest loss of games between the three, and missed playing the two terrible North teams K-State and Iowa State. Texas is probably only competing with Oklahoma, so they will no doubt keep pointing to the 45-35 win in Dallas back in October. The Longhorns have a good argument for the South Division title.
Second on the docket is Oklahoma, the trendy team after dismantling Texas Tech. Now Oklahoma will have a hard time getting past the head-to-head with Texas, but that was a long time ago on a neutral field. This is a three-way tie, and Oklahoma would point out that they handily took care of the Red Raiders that Texas could not beat. Oklahoma will have the Oklahoma State game next week to help them have a great two week bump in the computer rankings, and maybe in the minds of voters as well. Oklahoma also pounded real teams out-of-conference, such as future Big East champion Cincinnati and MWC runner-up TCU. Oklahoma has been consistent all season and has never failed to put up 35 points, usually more than 50. Oklahoma probably has the better argument thanks to a stronger schedule than the Longhorns in a 3-way tie.
Lastly come the Red Raiders. Texas Tech faced their own murderer's row of Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma. Just like the Longhorns, they came up short only in the last game which was on the road. Texas Tech will not want to look at point spreads or time of losses, but instead will focus on their win over Texas. Will that be enough in a three-way tie to convince anybody? No! However, Texas Tech does have a trump card, that being Oklahoma State. In the games amongst the top 4 teams in the South, no road team has won yet. The last of those battles takes place on OSU's home field, and Oklahoma cannot just assume that's a win just yet. If the Cowboys win, Texas Tech is in the Big XII Championship thanks to beating Texas head-to-head. Make no mistake, the Red Raiders would jump back to #2 in the BCS if this plays out and they beat Missouri.
Conclusion: Still too foggy. I'll put my pick on the OSU-OU showdown below and my BCS Projections, but there's really no counting out anyone. Even if Oklahoma wins, they must get some style points to overcome Texas in the BCS thanks to the head-to-head bias against the Sooners. Hard to believe with one week to go in the regular season for the conference, so much is left to be decided.
As for the rest of college football world, you could've slept through some games on Saturday thanks to blowout city. In games that were supposed to be competitive, Utah crushed BYU 48-24, Penn State mauled Michigan State 49-18, Ohio State made a statement with a 42-7 win over Michigan, TCU crunched Air Force 44-10, North Carolina State shocked UNC 41-10, Florida State knocked over Maryland 37-3, and in the crusher of all crushers, Iowa shut the lights out in the Metrodome permanently with a 55-0 embarrassment of Minnesota. Where did the competitive balance and heated rivalries go? I suppose bright spots include Cincinnati and Oregon State blazing their trails to the BCS with narrow wins, but outside of those two, let's hope the next two weeks pay us back for the lack of November drama outside the ACC.
The coaching carousel had a very interesting development this week, and that is the re-hiring of Bill Snyder as Kansas State coach. Snyder coached the Wildcats to more wins in 17 seasons than they had the previous 54, and will be taking the reins from Ron Prince, who did not make it 3 seasons at KSU. This hire screams desperation, even if Snyder has the itch to coach again. Time will tell, but I cannot imagine Snyder becoming the next Bowden or Paterno, which means K-State just put off the inevitable growing pains that they should have rode out with Prince.
The BCS Projections this week changed a little. Penn State is your Big Ten champion, and thus gets slotted into the Rose Bowl. Ohio State gets bumped from the BCS, as does Miami after they dropped the slippery ACC ball. I see Oklahoma and Florida winning their respective conferences, and Utah will be the only at-large from a non-BCS conference thanks to Oregon State winning the Pac-10. Sorry Boise State, that's how it breaks this year. Of course I guess it's better to lose your spot to an 11-1 USC team than a 10-2 Ohio State, but still no Fiesta this year.
BCS Projections October 27, 2008 BCS Championship in Miami - Florida vs. Oklahoma Fiesta Bowl - Alabama vs. USC Sugar Bowl - Texas vs. Utah Orange Bowl - Boston College vs. Cincinnati Rose Bowl - Oregon State vs. Penn State
Just when I get back into the writer's pick-em race, I go and pick teams like Michigan State and Texas Tech, leading me to fall close to .500 on the season. Oh well, there's always bowl season. The third best game of the week was a tough choice, but assuming Florida continues to play well, I'll go with Maryland at Boston College. This ACC showdown will determine who steps up to join Florida State atop the division, and only Boston College will win the tiebreaker with the Seminoles for the championship game berth. Still, Maryland has played exactly the opposite of expected this season, crushing the hopes of great teams and losing to bad ones. Senior QB Chris Crane leads the Eagles in this year of growth and transition, and the underclassmen are starting to play like champions in November. Maryland has scored fewer points than it's given up despite a 7-4 record, but the offense has good athletes in QB Chris Turner and RB Da'Rel Scott. Maryland will probably win, but I think BC will make up for the disappointments of last season by protecting the home field and winning by 14.
In a week when Guns and Roses brought out an album for the first time in 15 years, it is fitting that we have "The Civil War" as the second-best game of the week, Oregon at Oregon State. With a win, Oregon State will benefit from that upset of USC and go to the Rose Bowl as champions of the Pac-10. Oregon can claim second place in the Pac-10 and drop their bitter rivals to third place with a win. For the Ducks, it will be all about controlling the clock with RBs Jeremiah Johnson and LeGarrette Blount. The headlines for Oregon State may go to Jacquizz Rodgers, but do not underestimate the passing game of OSU or the Beaver defense. Oregon State was battle-tested by BCS bound Penn State and Utah, and the team has come a long way from the 0-2 start. At Corvallis the Beavers have been dominant, and lately they just find ways to win games. OSU is a team of destiny, and while a rematch with Penn State may not be great for the Rose Bowl, it is what they will get after the Beavers cruise to a 3 point win.
Game of the week is clear, Oklahoma at Oklahoma State. Bedlam! Each team has a blistering offense, an underrated defense, and enough playmakers to make this a must-see. Don't even mention the fact that Oklahoma is playing for a national and conference title, while Oklahoma State would love to spoil OU's season and jump ahead of them in the Big XII bowl pecking order. The Oklahoma State defense contained Colt McCoy, but not Graham Harrell. For Oklahoma it was vice versa. Unfortunately for Cowboy fans, Sam Bradford and company are on such a roll right now that it seems unfair to put anybody but them and Florida in the BCS Championship until proven otherwise. OSU puts up a good struggle for a half, but Oklahoma rolls on to a much-needed 28 point win.
2008 GOTW Record: 20-19
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 - Week 13
1. Alabama (11-0)
2. Florida (10-1)
3. Texas (10-1)
4. Oklahoma (10-1)
5. Utah (12-0)
6. Boise State (11-0)
7. USC (9-1)
8. Texas Tech (10-1)
9. Penn State (11-1)
10. Ohio State (10-2)
Just Missed: Missouri, Ball State, Georgia, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State
Who could've guessed that this season, one week would have two OSU teams in the top two games of the week, neither involving Ohio State. Just how quirky 2008 has been! Although the Big Ten has shut down for the season, we've still got two weeks to go! We'll see you next week for my final regular season article, previewing the conference championships and taking our best guess at the BCS. Have a good weekend!
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Rivalry and Heisman Talk - It Must Be Late November
For the first time in recent memory, a weekend that looked terrible on paper ended up with no drama and no surprises, unless you consider how many points Florida puts up interesting. In a weekend where the NFL has had multiple overtime games (including a tie!) and lots of drama, Saturday just did not have it. There's good news though, and that's rivalry week is here! OK, well maybe rivalry weeks, since many have moved back to November 29 this season. Still, there's a lot of intrigue and BCS possibilities on the line this weekend.
Around this time of year, it becomes appropriate to start thinking about Heisman Trophy hopefuls. This year, we can split the hopefuls into three groups. First is the Big XII Quarterbacks, including Sam Bradford at Oklahoma (188.94 rating, 3406 yards, 38 TD), Zach Robinson at Oklahoma State (178.02 rating, 2421 yards, 21 TD), Colt McCoy of Texas (177.60 rating, 3134 yards, 30 TD), Chase Daniel of Missouri (171.18 rating, 3592 yards, 30 TD), and Graham Harrell of Texas Tech (169.18 rating, 4077 yards, 36 TD). If anyone can figure out which of these players is the best in the conference, please contact every Heisman voter you know. This group is odds-on favorite to stack the New York ceremonies and take home the hardware, but it is hard to distinguish them. Bradford is the most efficient, McCoy is a dual threat, and Daniel has been to New York before. Still, team performance means a lot and Graham Harrell currently sits in the number one slot. If Tech wins in Norman and locks up the Big XII South title, Harrell will likely become a consensus front-runner in late November.
The second group does not get the publicity of the first group, but they really should. Big Ten running backs have been a sight to see in 2008, and no fewer than four men should be considered for plane trips to New York: Shonn Greene of Iowa (1585 yards, 15 TD), Javon Ringer of Michigan State (1548 yards, 20 TD), Evan Royster of Penn State (1123 yards, 12 TD) and Chris Wells of Ohio State (957 yards, 7 TD in limited time). Without these four men, the top four teams in the Big Ten likely look a lot different than it currently is. Even if you eliminate Wells for the injury time and Royster for disappearing in big games, Ringer and Greene should be on your short list. Greene has done nothing short of miraculous in carrying Iowa back to prominence, and has rushed for over 100 yards in all 11 games. Ringer's touchdown numbers lead the nation and Michigan State is not a one-dimensional team. If Michigan State were to end up Big Ten champions, Ringer might get into the discussion. Greene is already there.
The final group are the miscellaneous or others. We have returning Heisman QB Tim Tebow from Florida (167.47 rating, 1913 yards, 19 TD passing; 393 yards, 11 TD rushing). Tebow's numbers are well off last-year's pace, but that's really why Florida is back in control of their national championship hopes. Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree (1010 yards, 18 TD) also joins the contender list as a sophomore with numbers slightly off last year (1962 yards), yet the team around him has hidden his amazing talent this time around. Finally, explosive RB Knowshon Moreno from Georgia (1244 yards, 15 TD) should be considered just simply based on the astounding number of highlight-reel plays he's accumulated this season. Each of these men faces an uphill battle in overtaking the Big XII quarterbacks, but all are deserving of recognition on a great season.
The Heisman stands for most valuable player in college football. The perfect storm is a statistical maniac who is the clear leader of a national title contender. There's no Tim Tebow in the mix this season statistically, but all of the Big XII quarterbacks have been in the national title race. Despite both being deserving of a trip to New York, the Texas Tech-Oklahoma game will likely eliminate one of the quarterbacks from the discussion. Assuming five finalists and that dropout, the most deserving guys with two weeks to go are Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, Shonn Greene, and Michael Crabtree. At this point I'm calling for Bradford to win it because there is a sentiment that nobody should win a second Heisman with worse numbers like Tebow, and Crabtree-Harrell will split votes. Bradford is the call, subject to wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.
Rivalry season is upon us, so for the next two weeks expect inspired football and some surprises like last year's Pitt-WVU shocker. This week finishes Big Ten conference play and will probably lock in two BCS spots unless Oregon State wins out. Michigan might be the biggest joke of the season after being a legitimate contender for a national title in 2006, but the Ohio State game is by no means wrapped up for the Buckeyes. In the wild and crazy ACC, North Carolina and NC State will have a grudge match with bowl hopes on the line. These matchups don't fill the top three games of the week, but they deserve far more attention than the undercard from last week. And if anyone can figure out how the ACC conference race will play out, please inform us at the email address linked above because we have no clue who to put in the projections! After the top three contenders from last week fell, next up witha bullseye is Miami. Good luck surviving the roadtrip to Georgia Tech, Hurricanes. The only other change is that Oregon State moves in as they stand two wins away from the Rose Bowl and the Big Ten loses a team.
BCS Projections
BCS Championship in Miami - Florida vs. Texas Tech
Fiesta Bowl - Texas vs. USC
Sugar Bowl - Alabama vs. Utah
Orange Bowl - Miami vs. Cincinnati
Rose Bowl - Oregon State vs. Ohio State
I've somehow kept the nose above water this season in the top game picks, but this week is simply loaded with tough decisions. With all due respect to a de-facto Big East championship between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, the third-best game of the week is BYU at Utah. The Big Ten is not the only conference wrapping up this weekend, and the Holy War will determine if the best non-BCS conference gets a bowl bid or allows Boise State to enter the mix. These teams are very similar, except for results against TCU (The Cougars lost by 25, the Utes survived with a 3 point win). The Utes are battle tested with wins against Michigan, Oregon State, and TCU. BYU brings an edge to this game with a passing offense featuring QB Max Hall and WR Austin Collie, who has gone over 100 yards receiving in nine straight games. Utah has played more close games and better defense overall, which bodes well for the Utes at home. Utah takes the first BCS berth away with a convincing 17 point win.
The second game of the week is the Big Ten Championship. No, it's not OSU-Michigan, but instead Michigan State at Penn State. Last second field-goals in November have set this battle up (MSU to escape Wisconsin, PSU in a loss to Iowa) which will determine a share of the Big Ten title if Ohio State wins, outright if Michigan pulls the upset. While a lot of people question the Spartans' motivation in this game if OSU wins, the fact is that Michigan State has not won a Big Ten title in 20 years and this is another chance to prove this program is for real now under head coach Mark Dantonio. Penn State's defense and lack of mistakes has carried them, but this is the best offense in the Big Ten featuring QB Brian Hoyer and RB Javon Ringer opening up opportunities for each other. Penn State has a special team this season, but RB Evan Royster and company have not been impressive in their past three outings. This is the kind of game the Nittany Lions always win, but I think Michigan State has the better offense for the predicted crummy weather this weekend in Happy Valley. Spartans celebrate a Big Ten title with a 3 point win.
The top game of the week is the weekly dose of Big XII South action after a week's hiatus. Missouri awaits from the North division, but the South has a lot of business to conclude including this week's battle in Norman between Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Everybody knows about the exploits of Heisman frontrunners Michael Crabtree, Graham Harrell, and Sam Bradford. Each of these teams explodes for about 50 points per game, but the defenses are solid on both sides and should keep this shootout in the 30's at most. Oklahoma should be able to keep Texas Tech's offense off the field with RB DeMarco Murray and longer drives, but holding momentum will be key to keeping the crowd in the game. Texas Tech has not survived a true tough road test, while Oklahoma has serious wins over Cincinnati and TCU. This is just the season Texas Tech wins all of these games they are not supposed to, and this one will be the shocker of the weekend as Texas Tech clinches the Big XII South with a 7 point win.
2008 GOTW Record: 19-17
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 - Week 12
1. Texas Tech (10-0)
2. Alabama (11-0)
3. Florida (9-1)
4. Texas (10-1)
5. Oklahoma (9-1)
6. Utah (11-0)
7. USC (9-1)
8. Boise State (10-0)
9. Penn State (10-1)
10. Ohio State (9-2)
Just Missed: Missouri, Michigan State, Ball State, Georgia, BYU
While I may not agree on all issues with Barack Obama or the seemingly endless waste of time in Congress regulating baseball, I am encouraged by the 60 Minutes and Monday Night Football interviews Mr. Obama has given in recent weeks. He not only supports an 8-team college football playoff, he is "going to throw his weight around" to see what he can do to make it happen. With the BCS about to lock up "4 More Years!" in television contracts, this is the time to put the pressure on the networks and the university presidents to make a change. Sure, the bowl system is a wonderful thing and can continue, but it is a farce that every other sport decides a champion with a proper playoff. While New England might have been the best team in pro football last season, they could not win when it counted and these opportunities should spread beyond 2 teams in the crazy college football world. So on this issue, go Mr. Obama go! See you next week when more rivalries come to the table.
Around this time of year, it becomes appropriate to start thinking about Heisman Trophy hopefuls. This year, we can split the hopefuls into three groups. First is the Big XII Quarterbacks, including Sam Bradford at Oklahoma (188.94 rating, 3406 yards, 38 TD), Zach Robinson at Oklahoma State (178.02 rating, 2421 yards, 21 TD), Colt McCoy of Texas (177.60 rating, 3134 yards, 30 TD), Chase Daniel of Missouri (171.18 rating, 3592 yards, 30 TD), and Graham Harrell of Texas Tech (169.18 rating, 4077 yards, 36 TD). If anyone can figure out which of these players is the best in the conference, please contact every Heisman voter you know. This group is odds-on favorite to stack the New York ceremonies and take home the hardware, but it is hard to distinguish them. Bradford is the most efficient, McCoy is a dual threat, and Daniel has been to New York before. Still, team performance means a lot and Graham Harrell currently sits in the number one slot. If Tech wins in Norman and locks up the Big XII South title, Harrell will likely become a consensus front-runner in late November.
The second group does not get the publicity of the first group, but they really should. Big Ten running backs have been a sight to see in 2008, and no fewer than four men should be considered for plane trips to New York: Shonn Greene of Iowa (1585 yards, 15 TD), Javon Ringer of Michigan State (1548 yards, 20 TD), Evan Royster of Penn State (1123 yards, 12 TD) and Chris Wells of Ohio State (957 yards, 7 TD in limited time). Without these four men, the top four teams in the Big Ten likely look a lot different than it currently is. Even if you eliminate Wells for the injury time and Royster for disappearing in big games, Ringer and Greene should be on your short list. Greene has done nothing short of miraculous in carrying Iowa back to prominence, and has rushed for over 100 yards in all 11 games. Ringer's touchdown numbers lead the nation and Michigan State is not a one-dimensional team. If Michigan State were to end up Big Ten champions, Ringer might get into the discussion. Greene is already there.
The final group are the miscellaneous or others. We have returning Heisman QB Tim Tebow from Florida (167.47 rating, 1913 yards, 19 TD passing; 393 yards, 11 TD rushing). Tebow's numbers are well off last-year's pace, but that's really why Florida is back in control of their national championship hopes. Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree (1010 yards, 18 TD) also joins the contender list as a sophomore with numbers slightly off last year (1962 yards), yet the team around him has hidden his amazing talent this time around. Finally, explosive RB Knowshon Moreno from Georgia (1244 yards, 15 TD) should be considered just simply based on the astounding number of highlight-reel plays he's accumulated this season. Each of these men faces an uphill battle in overtaking the Big XII quarterbacks, but all are deserving of recognition on a great season.
The Heisman stands for most valuable player in college football. The perfect storm is a statistical maniac who is the clear leader of a national title contender. There's no Tim Tebow in the mix this season statistically, but all of the Big XII quarterbacks have been in the national title race. Despite both being deserving of a trip to New York, the Texas Tech-Oklahoma game will likely eliminate one of the quarterbacks from the discussion. Assuming five finalists and that dropout, the most deserving guys with two weeks to go are Sam Bradford, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, Shonn Greene, and Michael Crabtree. At this point I'm calling for Bradford to win it because there is a sentiment that nobody should win a second Heisman with worse numbers like Tebow, and Crabtree-Harrell will split votes. Bradford is the call, subject to wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.
Rivalry season is upon us, so for the next two weeks expect inspired football and some surprises like last year's Pitt-WVU shocker. This week finishes Big Ten conference play and will probably lock in two BCS spots unless Oregon State wins out. Michigan might be the biggest joke of the season after being a legitimate contender for a national title in 2006, but the Ohio State game is by no means wrapped up for the Buckeyes. In the wild and crazy ACC, North Carolina and NC State will have a grudge match with bowl hopes on the line. These matchups don't fill the top three games of the week, but they deserve far more attention than the undercard from last week. And if anyone can figure out how the ACC conference race will play out, please inform us at the email address linked above because we have no clue who to put in the projections! After the top three contenders from last week fell, next up witha bullseye is Miami. Good luck surviving the roadtrip to Georgia Tech, Hurricanes. The only other change is that Oregon State moves in as they stand two wins away from the Rose Bowl and the Big Ten loses a team.
BCS Projections
BCS Championship in Miami - Florida vs. Texas Tech
Fiesta Bowl - Texas vs. USC
Sugar Bowl - Alabama vs. Utah
Orange Bowl - Miami vs. Cincinnati
Rose Bowl - Oregon State vs. Ohio State
I've somehow kept the nose above water this season in the top game picks, but this week is simply loaded with tough decisions. With all due respect to a de-facto Big East championship between Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, the third-best game of the week is BYU at Utah. The Big Ten is not the only conference wrapping up this weekend, and the Holy War will determine if the best non-BCS conference gets a bowl bid or allows Boise State to enter the mix. These teams are very similar, except for results against TCU (The Cougars lost by 25, the Utes survived with a 3 point win). The Utes are battle tested with wins against Michigan, Oregon State, and TCU. BYU brings an edge to this game with a passing offense featuring QB Max Hall and WR Austin Collie, who has gone over 100 yards receiving in nine straight games. Utah has played more close games and better defense overall, which bodes well for the Utes at home. Utah takes the first BCS berth away with a convincing 17 point win.
The second game of the week is the Big Ten Championship. No, it's not OSU-Michigan, but instead Michigan State at Penn State. Last second field-goals in November have set this battle up (MSU to escape Wisconsin, PSU in a loss to Iowa) which will determine a share of the Big Ten title if Ohio State wins, outright if Michigan pulls the upset. While a lot of people question the Spartans' motivation in this game if OSU wins, the fact is that Michigan State has not won a Big Ten title in 20 years and this is another chance to prove this program is for real now under head coach Mark Dantonio. Penn State's defense and lack of mistakes has carried them, but this is the best offense in the Big Ten featuring QB Brian Hoyer and RB Javon Ringer opening up opportunities for each other. Penn State has a special team this season, but RB Evan Royster and company have not been impressive in their past three outings. This is the kind of game the Nittany Lions always win, but I think Michigan State has the better offense for the predicted crummy weather this weekend in Happy Valley. Spartans celebrate a Big Ten title with a 3 point win.
The top game of the week is the weekly dose of Big XII South action after a week's hiatus. Missouri awaits from the North division, but the South has a lot of business to conclude including this week's battle in Norman between Texas Tech and Oklahoma. Everybody knows about the exploits of Heisman frontrunners Michael Crabtree, Graham Harrell, and Sam Bradford. Each of these teams explodes for about 50 points per game, but the defenses are solid on both sides and should keep this shootout in the 30's at most. Oklahoma should be able to keep Texas Tech's offense off the field with RB DeMarco Murray and longer drives, but holding momentum will be key to keeping the crowd in the game. Texas Tech has not survived a true tough road test, while Oklahoma has serious wins over Cincinnati and TCU. This is just the season Texas Tech wins all of these games they are not supposed to, and this one will be the shocker of the weekend as Texas Tech clinches the Big XII South with a 7 point win.
2008 GOTW Record: 19-17
Last Week: 2-1
Fitz Top 10 - Week 12
1. Texas Tech (10-0)
2. Alabama (11-0)
3. Florida (9-1)
4. Texas (10-1)
5. Oklahoma (9-1)
6. Utah (11-0)
7. USC (9-1)
8. Boise State (10-0)
9. Penn State (10-1)
10. Ohio State (9-2)
Just Missed: Missouri, Michigan State, Ball State, Georgia, BYU
While I may not agree on all issues with Barack Obama or the seemingly endless waste of time in Congress regulating baseball, I am encouraged by the 60 Minutes and Monday Night Football interviews Mr. Obama has given in recent weeks. He not only supports an 8-team college football playoff, he is "going to throw his weight around" to see what he can do to make it happen. With the BCS about to lock up "4 More Years!" in television contracts, this is the time to put the pressure on the networks and the university presidents to make a change. Sure, the bowl system is a wonderful thing and can continue, but it is a farce that every other sport decides a champion with a proper playoff. While New England might have been the best team in pro football last season, they could not win when it counted and these opportunities should spread beyond 2 teams in the crazy college football world. So on this issue, go Mr. Obama go! See you next week when more rivalries come to the table.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Coaching Ranks Face Dilemma in Historic Times
Another week of college football in November, another unforeseeable upset. Before delving into that, there's a storm brewing in college football and national television networks are already clamoring for change in November. This time, it's not the BCS! Instead, the mid-season firings of Tyrone Willingham and this week's victim, Ron Prince at Kansas State, have the pundits screaming for blood over the dearth of African-American football coaches in Division I-A again. Why exactly does this problem persist, what can we do about it, and why is this such a big deal? A number of answers sit lurking in the background for us.
Why does the problem persist is the main question on most minds when the seemingly grim statistic is thrown up there that only four black head coaches will be left in 120 programs in 2009. This ignores the fact that it's still really six until the end of the year, and nobody really knows how Clemson, Tennessee, Washington, and others will hire this offseason. It is also deceptive because there are two other minority coaches as well who just don't happen to be African Americans. Nevertheless, the number seems terribly small when compared to a 55% minority student-athlete percentage. Furthermore, demographics studies have shown that about 14% of America is now black, with 33% spread out amongst all minorities. Even going with the demographics, 6 out of 120 is a mere 5%, a far cry from the expected 14%.
Historically, the number of black head coaches has wavered between three and eight total in the past two decades. While a step backwards is not what the football nation should strive for, there will inevitably be give and take in the process of integrating the coaching ranks. The real problem now appears to be at the ground level, not at the top. The number of black assistant coaches must be high enough so that obvious hires such as offensive and defensive coordinators do move into the head coaching positions when they come open. For college football to solve this problem, there needs to be more emphasis on hiring minorities anywhere on the coaching staff. Don't get me wrong, there are qualified candidates out there now moving through the ranks like Ron English. However, the numbers need to rise across the board or no progress will ever be made.
Other than encouraging all universities to consider more minorities at the ground level, there are other paths to consider. The NFL has had a "Rooney Rule" in effect for five years, which requires teams to interview qualified minority candidates for any head coaching opening. While the increase in NFL head coaches who are minorities in the past five years is significant (6% to 22%), many question whether the Rooney Rule had anything to do with it. While this program looks a lot like affirmative action, the mere fact is that the Rooney Rule does not guarantee minority hires. It simply opens up the opportunity, so perhaps a gentleman's agreement among university presidents to enact such a rule would help this integration process along. Other than that, the only other possibility is to continue encouraging black student athletes to consider coaching after their playing days are over. Given the 55% minority rate of players, a program encouraging more coaching careers would certainly close the gap.
Why is this such a big deal? Excellent question. The obvious reason is that the country's eyes are glazed over with true history this week as Barack Obama is our new president-elect, the first minority to do so. Furthermore, the NFL jump in minority coaches is probably shedding even more spotlight on the college coaching ranks. Although I think having a fit in the middle of November about this is premature, perhaps Obama's election is the impetus the sport needs to really take a look at more minority candidates. This by no means says aspiring young white coaches are not entitled to equal opportunities, but there should be plenty of openings with the "win now" mentality of college football for everyone to get a chance. For every Bob Stoops, Pete Carroll, and Jim Tressel out there, there's 10 coaches who cycle through programs every 3-5 years. The verdict: not as huge a problem as it is currently made out to be, but progress should be visible in the next decade or something is seriously wrong.
I would be remiss in not covering some on-the-field action. Five of the six undefeated teams remain, as Utah, Alabama, and Texas Tech all lived up to the hype in surviving major tests. Iowa made a ton of people smile after knocking off Penn State though, as the Big Ten is virtually locked out of the national championship this season. They can commisserate with the ACC and Big East, who also have no chance. There's always surprises in November, and this one was just a product of Penn State making a lot of mistakes. Iowa is tough at home, and just good enough to capitalize on the Nittany Lions's mistakes. This does not mean Joe Paterno is a failure, it just means they will have to settle for a Rose Bowl for only the second time in their Big Ten history and the first since 1995. A tough test against co-leader Michigan State remains, but the Nittany Lions still have a ton to play for.
The biggest beneficiary of the Penn State loss might actually be Ohio State. Had PSU went 11-0 and then lost to Michigan State, the three-way tie atop the Big Ten would have been awarded to Michigan State, who has not appeared in a Rose Bowl since 1988. Obviously a one-loss Penn State team would likely be chosen for a second BCS slot thanks to a better record and a win over OSU. This leaves a very solid Ohio State team on the outside looking in. Now the Buckeyes not only are two wins away from a fourth-straight Big Ten title (shared with the MSU-PSU winner), they are virtually guaranteed a BCS slot as long as Oregon State does not win out (which would give the PAC-10 two BCS slots). So congratulations to Iowa, as the Big Ten will benefit from a little parity and avoiding the toughest game of them all this season. Obviously the BCS Projections have changed, leaving PSU out of the championship now and moving Texas Tech into the slot for now. Boise State, West Virginia, and Georgia Tech are out, while Cincinnati, North Carolina, and Utah move into slots in a big movement week.
BCS Projections October 27, 2008
BCS Championship in Miami - Florida vs. Texas Tech
Fiesta Bowl - Texas vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl - Alabama vs. Utah
Orange Bowl - North Carolina vs. Cincinnati
Rose Bowl - USC vs. Penn State
After having too many games to choose from for a few weeks, this week it becomes hard to find three top games of the week. We start with a good battle in the MWC as 9-1 BYU travels to play 8-2 Air Force. While each team has lost a conference game, both are still in the hunt for a conference title with the backloaded MWC schedule in November. Air Force has had trouble keeping any one man in the spotlight this season, as there are platoons at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. This give the BYU defense a lot to prepare for. The Falcons also have a stingy defense, but it will be tested by the best offense it has seen all season. Outside of the TCU loss, BYU has been firing on all cylinders offensively, averaging nearly 40 points per game. QB Max Hall is yet another great quarterback in BYU's system, and he should be able to find some weaknesses in the Falcon defense. Both teams have quality special teams units, so the advantage has to go with the team with the only edge, that being BYU on offense. The Cougars set up the massive showdown with Utah by winning this one by 17.
The second game of the week is an ACC showdown between Boston College and Florida State. It's still completely undetermined who exactly will show up in the ACC Championship game, and this game may help clarify that answer. Boston College trails Wake Forest, FSU, and Maryland by a game in the division, but the Eagles have all three left on their schedule and so control their own destiny. Eagles QB Chris Crane has not had a great year, but RB Montel Harris has given him enough support to be effective at times. Florida State has been very solid offensively outside of the Wake Forest loss, but you have to wonder if QB Christian Ponder can keep up his high level of play this season. If there's any indication which way this one will go, it may be the special teams. Graham Gano is nearly perfect for the Seminoles, while BC is barely hitting half of their field goals. This makes the difference on the road for the Eagles, as Florida State wins by 3.
The game of the week is slightly less intringuing than the Nick Saban showdown, but South Carolina visiting Florida is always a fun storyline as Steve Spurrier tries to rekindle some magic in the Swamp. The Gamecocks have an outstanding defense, which stifles lesser opponents and keeps Spurrier in games against better competition. Still, the Gators are outscoring their competition by a 4:1 clip and are playing like a national champion right now. You know the Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin show, but look for WR Louis Murphy to continue tearing up defenses that double-team Harvin. The Gamecocks have issues running the ball and kicking field goals, which is not good going into the Swamp. Spurrier comes up with more great defense to keep it closer than usual for the Gators, but Florida wins by 10.
2008 GOTW Record: 17-16
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 - Week 11
1. Texas Tech (10-0)
2. Alabama (10-0)
3. Florida (8-1)
4. Texas (9-1)
5. Oklahoma (9-1)
6. Utah (10-0)
7. USC (8-1)
8. Boise State (9-0)
9. Penn State (9-1)
10. Ohio State (8-2)
Just Missed: Ball State, Missouri, Georgia, Michigan State, BYU
This looks like a poor week of football, but don't be fooled. These weeks are generally when big upsets happen and shockers continue. There will be more Iowa-like upsets, but good luck picking which game it will be. Better sit in front of the TV with the remote ready! Have a good week!
Why does the problem persist is the main question on most minds when the seemingly grim statistic is thrown up there that only four black head coaches will be left in 120 programs in 2009. This ignores the fact that it's still really six until the end of the year, and nobody really knows how Clemson, Tennessee, Washington, and others will hire this offseason. It is also deceptive because there are two other minority coaches as well who just don't happen to be African Americans. Nevertheless, the number seems terribly small when compared to a 55% minority student-athlete percentage. Furthermore, demographics studies have shown that about 14% of America is now black, with 33% spread out amongst all minorities. Even going with the demographics, 6 out of 120 is a mere 5%, a far cry from the expected 14%.
Historically, the number of black head coaches has wavered between three and eight total in the past two decades. While a step backwards is not what the football nation should strive for, there will inevitably be give and take in the process of integrating the coaching ranks. The real problem now appears to be at the ground level, not at the top. The number of black assistant coaches must be high enough so that obvious hires such as offensive and defensive coordinators do move into the head coaching positions when they come open. For college football to solve this problem, there needs to be more emphasis on hiring minorities anywhere on the coaching staff. Don't get me wrong, there are qualified candidates out there now moving through the ranks like Ron English. However, the numbers need to rise across the board or no progress will ever be made.
Other than encouraging all universities to consider more minorities at the ground level, there are other paths to consider. The NFL has had a "Rooney Rule" in effect for five years, which requires teams to interview qualified minority candidates for any head coaching opening. While the increase in NFL head coaches who are minorities in the past five years is significant (6% to 22%), many question whether the Rooney Rule had anything to do with it. While this program looks a lot like affirmative action, the mere fact is that the Rooney Rule does not guarantee minority hires. It simply opens up the opportunity, so perhaps a gentleman's agreement among university presidents to enact such a rule would help this integration process along. Other than that, the only other possibility is to continue encouraging black student athletes to consider coaching after their playing days are over. Given the 55% minority rate of players, a program encouraging more coaching careers would certainly close the gap.
Why is this such a big deal? Excellent question. The obvious reason is that the country's eyes are glazed over with true history this week as Barack Obama is our new president-elect, the first minority to do so. Furthermore, the NFL jump in minority coaches is probably shedding even more spotlight on the college coaching ranks. Although I think having a fit in the middle of November about this is premature, perhaps Obama's election is the impetus the sport needs to really take a look at more minority candidates. This by no means says aspiring young white coaches are not entitled to equal opportunities, but there should be plenty of openings with the "win now" mentality of college football for everyone to get a chance. For every Bob Stoops, Pete Carroll, and Jim Tressel out there, there's 10 coaches who cycle through programs every 3-5 years. The verdict: not as huge a problem as it is currently made out to be, but progress should be visible in the next decade or something is seriously wrong.
I would be remiss in not covering some on-the-field action. Five of the six undefeated teams remain, as Utah, Alabama, and Texas Tech all lived up to the hype in surviving major tests. Iowa made a ton of people smile after knocking off Penn State though, as the Big Ten is virtually locked out of the national championship this season. They can commisserate with the ACC and Big East, who also have no chance. There's always surprises in November, and this one was just a product of Penn State making a lot of mistakes. Iowa is tough at home, and just good enough to capitalize on the Nittany Lions's mistakes. This does not mean Joe Paterno is a failure, it just means they will have to settle for a Rose Bowl for only the second time in their Big Ten history and the first since 1995. A tough test against co-leader Michigan State remains, but the Nittany Lions still have a ton to play for.
The biggest beneficiary of the Penn State loss might actually be Ohio State. Had PSU went 11-0 and then lost to Michigan State, the three-way tie atop the Big Ten would have been awarded to Michigan State, who has not appeared in a Rose Bowl since 1988. Obviously a one-loss Penn State team would likely be chosen for a second BCS slot thanks to a better record and a win over OSU. This leaves a very solid Ohio State team on the outside looking in. Now the Buckeyes not only are two wins away from a fourth-straight Big Ten title (shared with the MSU-PSU winner), they are virtually guaranteed a BCS slot as long as Oregon State does not win out (which would give the PAC-10 two BCS slots). So congratulations to Iowa, as the Big Ten will benefit from a little parity and avoiding the toughest game of them all this season. Obviously the BCS Projections have changed, leaving PSU out of the championship now and moving Texas Tech into the slot for now. Boise State, West Virginia, and Georgia Tech are out, while Cincinnati, North Carolina, and Utah move into slots in a big movement week.
BCS Projections October 27, 2008
BCS Championship in Miami - Florida vs. Texas Tech
Fiesta Bowl - Texas vs. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl - Alabama vs. Utah
Orange Bowl - North Carolina vs. Cincinnati
Rose Bowl - USC vs. Penn State
After having too many games to choose from for a few weeks, this week it becomes hard to find three top games of the week. We start with a good battle in the MWC as 9-1 BYU travels to play 8-2 Air Force. While each team has lost a conference game, both are still in the hunt for a conference title with the backloaded MWC schedule in November. Air Force has had trouble keeping any one man in the spotlight this season, as there are platoons at quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. This give the BYU defense a lot to prepare for. The Falcons also have a stingy defense, but it will be tested by the best offense it has seen all season. Outside of the TCU loss, BYU has been firing on all cylinders offensively, averaging nearly 40 points per game. QB Max Hall is yet another great quarterback in BYU's system, and he should be able to find some weaknesses in the Falcon defense. Both teams have quality special teams units, so the advantage has to go with the team with the only edge, that being BYU on offense. The Cougars set up the massive showdown with Utah by winning this one by 17.
The second game of the week is an ACC showdown between Boston College and Florida State. It's still completely undetermined who exactly will show up in the ACC Championship game, and this game may help clarify that answer. Boston College trails Wake Forest, FSU, and Maryland by a game in the division, but the Eagles have all three left on their schedule and so control their own destiny. Eagles QB Chris Crane has not had a great year, but RB Montel Harris has given him enough support to be effective at times. Florida State has been very solid offensively outside of the Wake Forest loss, but you have to wonder if QB Christian Ponder can keep up his high level of play this season. If there's any indication which way this one will go, it may be the special teams. Graham Gano is nearly perfect for the Seminoles, while BC is barely hitting half of their field goals. This makes the difference on the road for the Eagles, as Florida State wins by 3.
The game of the week is slightly less intringuing than the Nick Saban showdown, but South Carolina visiting Florida is always a fun storyline as Steve Spurrier tries to rekindle some magic in the Swamp. The Gamecocks have an outstanding defense, which stifles lesser opponents and keeps Spurrier in games against better competition. Still, the Gators are outscoring their competition by a 4:1 clip and are playing like a national champion right now. You know the Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin show, but look for WR Louis Murphy to continue tearing up defenses that double-team Harvin. The Gamecocks have issues running the ball and kicking field goals, which is not good going into the Swamp. Spurrier comes up with more great defense to keep it closer than usual for the Gators, but Florida wins by 10.
2008 GOTW Record: 17-16
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 - Week 11
1. Texas Tech (10-0)
2. Alabama (10-0)
3. Florida (8-1)
4. Texas (9-1)
5. Oklahoma (9-1)
6. Utah (10-0)
7. USC (8-1)
8. Boise State (9-0)
9. Penn State (9-1)
10. Ohio State (8-2)
Just Missed: Ball State, Missouri, Georgia, Michigan State, BYU
This looks like a poor week of football, but don't be fooled. These weeks are generally when big upsets happen and shockers continue. There will be more Iowa-like upsets, but good luck picking which game it will be. Better sit in front of the TV with the remote ready! Have a good week!
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Familiar and Unfamiliar Faces Take The Reins
First off, if you are reading this and you have not voted, go vote right now! Doing your civic duty and ensuring we have the highest voter turnout possible in America ensures the will of the country will be done. I do not care if you support McCain, Obama, or William Shatner as your president. Just go vote. For the rest of us, let's jump in to the week that was.
The story was all but written. Colt McCoy and company lead a Heisman-defining drive down the field after the Longhorn defense stiffened to stop Texas Tech completely for zero points in the second half. Someone forgot to tell this Red Raider team about the coronation, as Texas Tech simply responded with a more impressive drive to win with one second left. Michael Crabtree made two talented Longhorn defensive backs look silly, and suddenly there's a new Big XII team atop the roost. Of course Tech must survive their own gauntlet, but a home date with Oklahoma State followed by the bye week and then Oklahoma in Norman is significantly easier than what Texas just faced in 4 weeks. Enjoy the top while it lasts Texas Tech.
While the Red Raiders are the unexpected face in the top echelon, it appears 2006 national champion Florida is back in the mix as a contender with Texas for best one loss team. To say the Gators pounded a national-title caliber Georgia team would be an understatement. The Party in Jacksonville became the slaughter of 2008, eclipsing even the disappointing USC-OSU game from September. While Georgia laments a lost season to some degree, Florida now turns its attention to clinching a division title next weekend and perhaps playing for more than they could have imaginged following the loss to Mississippi. The Gators are back, and it's nice to see a power from the past 3-4 years step up and challenge the unexpected trio of Alabama, Penn State, and Texas Tech.
One popular saying is that all good things must come to an end. It's a maxim that rings true in sports and in life. While Michigan fans certainly would not trade their shiny new RichRod for the Lloyd Carr days (yet), it is never easy to swallow a first losing season in 40 years and no bowl for the first time in 33 years. Even last season, Michigan made a statement on behalf of the Big Ten by beating a solid Florida squad in the Capital One Bowl. Given how bad the Wolverines have been, the conference is probably thankful the Wolverines are taking a year off. On the bright side, Rodriguez will now have a lot of extra time to build up his program from the roots and instill his system, probably leading to a major improvement in 2009. Remember, almost all college coaches get a ton better in their second season. Michigan fans can point all the way to their rival and Jim Tressel to see that phenomenon (7-5 in 2001, 14-0 in 2002). Doubling the win total will not win a national title for the Big Blue, but it will get them back to respectability.
The big names just keep on falling, as Clemson and Tommy Bowden have started a landslide of big-name coaches headed elsewhere in 2009. This week's victim is Phillip Fulmer, who has been a part of the Volunteer program for 30 years. Fulmer did win the first BCS national championship, but never regained that form in being a middling SEC team recently. For the first time perhaps ever, the Volunteers are not the best team in the state thanks to Vanderbilt. With the Titans having a legendary start in the pro ranks and Vanderbilt nationally ranked, the time appears right for Fulmer to hand the reins to someone else. Perhaps this relationship can end on amicable terms, but likely only if Tennessee turns it around to beat Vandy and win a bowl game.
In BCS Buster news, Tulsa disappeared off the radar after a crushing loss. This leaves Boise State, Utah, and TCU in the mix for the at-large berth. Utah and TCU clash on Thursday night this week, so another team will be eliminated and that will simplify the picture a lot. No offense to Ball State, but the Cardinals are not in the mix unless a lot of crazy things happen down the stretch.
Irony struck the Big Ten this weekend. With the two likely BCS candidates out on a bye week, the little nine had the national spotlight at noon, filling up three channels on my dial. Go figure that all three games end up being instant classics. Purdue overcame Michigan on a crazy hook and lateral play with time running out. The only points of the second half between Northwestern and Minnesota came with 20 seconds left as Northwestern returned an interception for a touchdown to beat the Gophers. Then Michigan State kicked a field goal as time expired to gain the first lead of the day and a winning one-point margin against Wisconsin. Putting aside the lack of wisdom from Minnesota (in continuing to throw down the field when a knee gets them to overtime at home) and Wisconsin (calling timeout when MSU was rushing the field goal until on the field with ten seconds left and letting the Spartans have a composed shot at the game winning field goal), it was the best football this conference has seen all season. Go figure.
One last thing before we jump into the BCS projections for this week. A lot of people are blowing around a lot of air this week on whether Texas Tech deserves to be above Penn State in the BCS Standings or whether Texas, Oklahoma, or Florida is the best one-loss team. That is their job, but three words for the wise: IT. DOESN'T. MATTER. November is when once dominant teams have their off week and when the biggest upsets occur. It happens every season, and there's no point losing sleep over PSU in the tree slot this week. Save your debating voice for December. I'm Dave Fitzgerald and I approved this message. (Couldn't help it, there's been no other commercials on for weeks)
BCS Projections October 27, 2008
BCS Championship in Miami - Penn State vs. Florida
Fiesta Bowl - Texas Tech vs. West Virginia
Sugar Bowl - Alabama vs. Texas
Orange Bowl - Georgia Tech vs. Boise State
Rose Bowl - USC vs. Ohio State
There are SIX matchups between ranked teams this weekend, so it is hard to cull a top three games. Still, we must go on. The third game of the week is TCU at Utah on Thursday night. Given the three-team depth of the MWC, TCU may be able to overcome that Oklahoma loss and still end up in the BCS by beating Utah after the BYU beatdown. This is literally the next to last game for the Horned Frogs, so a win here could have them sitting in the clubhouse waiting for a Boise State stumble. QB Andy Dalton has been an admirable leader of the TCU offense, but the Horned Frogs get it done with rushing and defense. Utah has not faced a defense nearly this good all season, and QB Brian Johnson will be sorely tested by the good coverage TCU can put out on the field. The Utes are playing at home, but TCU is actually more battle-tested at this point. The defense will smother the Utes, as TCU wins by 10.
The second game of the week matches the new kids on the Big XII leaderboard block, as Oklahoma State visits Texas Tech. Despite the big win against Texas, the one knock on Texas Tech is that their defense is not up to snuff. Still, it may not matter with QB Graham Harrell passing for over 400 yards per game to receivers such as Michael Crabtree and Detron Lewis. Oklahoma State survived a road game at Missouri and almost knocked off the Longhorns in Austin, so the hostile crowd in Lubbock will be nothing new for OSU. The Cowboys have a much more balanced attack, led by RB Kendall Hunter. Texas Tech comes in on top of the world, and is probably hoping for a shootout this week. Oklahoma State will be happy if the game is played in the 20's. It only seems fitting that the topsy-turvy Big XII have yet another top dog this season, so I'll guess Cowboys by 4.
The top game of the week mantle returns to the SEC, as this week's battle between Alabama and LSU in Baton Rouge could decide the SEC West. The Crimson Tide comes in with the highest luxury ever afforded an SEC team, a two game division lead in early November. Alabama has stepped up and played big in the largest games of the season, so expect QB John Parker Wilson and RB Glen Coffee to race out to an early lead. The key will be how the Tigers respond to the certain early surge. LSU still has a solid defense, but they have been exposed twice for 50+ points by the powers of the SEC East. QB Jarrett Lee does not have the offense to win that sort of shootout, so LSU falls behind early and gets embarassed in front of the home crowd. Alabama wins by 20.
2008 GOTW Record: 16-14
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 - Week 10
1. Penn State (9-0)
2. Texas Tech (9-0)
3. Alabama (9-0)
4. Florida (7-1)
5. Texas (8-1)
6. Oklahoma (8-1)
7. USC (7-1)
8. Utah (9-0)
9. Boise State (8-0)
10. Oklahoma State (8-1)
Just Missed: Ohio State, TCU, Ball State, LSU, Georgia
Again, go out and vote if you have not and you read this on Tuesday. Our nation will elect new leaders in 2008, and then college football will take the national spotlight away for the crazy run through November. Tons of great football on the schedule this week, so get out there and enjoy it!
The story was all but written. Colt McCoy and company lead a Heisman-defining drive down the field after the Longhorn defense stiffened to stop Texas Tech completely for zero points in the second half. Someone forgot to tell this Red Raider team about the coronation, as Texas Tech simply responded with a more impressive drive to win with one second left. Michael Crabtree made two talented Longhorn defensive backs look silly, and suddenly there's a new Big XII team atop the roost. Of course Tech must survive their own gauntlet, but a home date with Oklahoma State followed by the bye week and then Oklahoma in Norman is significantly easier than what Texas just faced in 4 weeks. Enjoy the top while it lasts Texas Tech.
While the Red Raiders are the unexpected face in the top echelon, it appears 2006 national champion Florida is back in the mix as a contender with Texas for best one loss team. To say the Gators pounded a national-title caliber Georgia team would be an understatement. The Party in Jacksonville became the slaughter of 2008, eclipsing even the disappointing USC-OSU game from September. While Georgia laments a lost season to some degree, Florida now turns its attention to clinching a division title next weekend and perhaps playing for more than they could have imaginged following the loss to Mississippi. The Gators are back, and it's nice to see a power from the past 3-4 years step up and challenge the unexpected trio of Alabama, Penn State, and Texas Tech.
One popular saying is that all good things must come to an end. It's a maxim that rings true in sports and in life. While Michigan fans certainly would not trade their shiny new RichRod for the Lloyd Carr days (yet), it is never easy to swallow a first losing season in 40 years and no bowl for the first time in 33 years. Even last season, Michigan made a statement on behalf of the Big Ten by beating a solid Florida squad in the Capital One Bowl. Given how bad the Wolverines have been, the conference is probably thankful the Wolverines are taking a year off. On the bright side, Rodriguez will now have a lot of extra time to build up his program from the roots and instill his system, probably leading to a major improvement in 2009. Remember, almost all college coaches get a ton better in their second season. Michigan fans can point all the way to their rival and Jim Tressel to see that phenomenon (7-5 in 2001, 14-0 in 2002). Doubling the win total will not win a national title for the Big Blue, but it will get them back to respectability.
The big names just keep on falling, as Clemson and Tommy Bowden have started a landslide of big-name coaches headed elsewhere in 2009. This week's victim is Phillip Fulmer, who has been a part of the Volunteer program for 30 years. Fulmer did win the first BCS national championship, but never regained that form in being a middling SEC team recently. For the first time perhaps ever, the Volunteers are not the best team in the state thanks to Vanderbilt. With the Titans having a legendary start in the pro ranks and Vanderbilt nationally ranked, the time appears right for Fulmer to hand the reins to someone else. Perhaps this relationship can end on amicable terms, but likely only if Tennessee turns it around to beat Vandy and win a bowl game.
In BCS Buster news, Tulsa disappeared off the radar after a crushing loss. This leaves Boise State, Utah, and TCU in the mix for the at-large berth. Utah and TCU clash on Thursday night this week, so another team will be eliminated and that will simplify the picture a lot. No offense to Ball State, but the Cardinals are not in the mix unless a lot of crazy things happen down the stretch.
Irony struck the Big Ten this weekend. With the two likely BCS candidates out on a bye week, the little nine had the national spotlight at noon, filling up three channels on my dial. Go figure that all three games end up being instant classics. Purdue overcame Michigan on a crazy hook and lateral play with time running out. The only points of the second half between Northwestern and Minnesota came with 20 seconds left as Northwestern returned an interception for a touchdown to beat the Gophers. Then Michigan State kicked a field goal as time expired to gain the first lead of the day and a winning one-point margin against Wisconsin. Putting aside the lack of wisdom from Minnesota (in continuing to throw down the field when a knee gets them to overtime at home) and Wisconsin (calling timeout when MSU was rushing the field goal until on the field with ten seconds left and letting the Spartans have a composed shot at the game winning field goal), it was the best football this conference has seen all season. Go figure.
One last thing before we jump into the BCS projections for this week. A lot of people are blowing around a lot of air this week on whether Texas Tech deserves to be above Penn State in the BCS Standings or whether Texas, Oklahoma, or Florida is the best one-loss team. That is their job, but three words for the wise: IT. DOESN'T. MATTER. November is when once dominant teams have their off week and when the biggest upsets occur. It happens every season, and there's no point losing sleep over PSU in the tree slot this week. Save your debating voice for December. I'm Dave Fitzgerald and I approved this message. (Couldn't help it, there's been no other commercials on for weeks)
BCS Projections October 27, 2008
BCS Championship in Miami - Penn State vs. Florida
Fiesta Bowl - Texas Tech vs. West Virginia
Sugar Bowl - Alabama vs. Texas
Orange Bowl - Georgia Tech vs. Boise State
Rose Bowl - USC vs. Ohio State
There are SIX matchups between ranked teams this weekend, so it is hard to cull a top three games. Still, we must go on. The third game of the week is TCU at Utah on Thursday night. Given the three-team depth of the MWC, TCU may be able to overcome that Oklahoma loss and still end up in the BCS by beating Utah after the BYU beatdown. This is literally the next to last game for the Horned Frogs, so a win here could have them sitting in the clubhouse waiting for a Boise State stumble. QB Andy Dalton has been an admirable leader of the TCU offense, but the Horned Frogs get it done with rushing and defense. Utah has not faced a defense nearly this good all season, and QB Brian Johnson will be sorely tested by the good coverage TCU can put out on the field. The Utes are playing at home, but TCU is actually more battle-tested at this point. The defense will smother the Utes, as TCU wins by 10.
The second game of the week matches the new kids on the Big XII leaderboard block, as Oklahoma State visits Texas Tech. Despite the big win against Texas, the one knock on Texas Tech is that their defense is not up to snuff. Still, it may not matter with QB Graham Harrell passing for over 400 yards per game to receivers such as Michael Crabtree and Detron Lewis. Oklahoma State survived a road game at Missouri and almost knocked off the Longhorns in Austin, so the hostile crowd in Lubbock will be nothing new for OSU. The Cowboys have a much more balanced attack, led by RB Kendall Hunter. Texas Tech comes in on top of the world, and is probably hoping for a shootout this week. Oklahoma State will be happy if the game is played in the 20's. It only seems fitting that the topsy-turvy Big XII have yet another top dog this season, so I'll guess Cowboys by 4.
The top game of the week mantle returns to the SEC, as this week's battle between Alabama and LSU in Baton Rouge could decide the SEC West. The Crimson Tide comes in with the highest luxury ever afforded an SEC team, a two game division lead in early November. Alabama has stepped up and played big in the largest games of the season, so expect QB John Parker Wilson and RB Glen Coffee to race out to an early lead. The key will be how the Tigers respond to the certain early surge. LSU still has a solid defense, but they have been exposed twice for 50+ points by the powers of the SEC East. QB Jarrett Lee does not have the offense to win that sort of shootout, so LSU falls behind early and gets embarassed in front of the home crowd. Alabama wins by 20.
2008 GOTW Record: 16-14
Last Week: 1-2
Fitz Top 10 - Week 10
1. Penn State (9-0)
2. Texas Tech (9-0)
3. Alabama (9-0)
4. Florida (7-1)
5. Texas (8-1)
6. Oklahoma (8-1)
7. USC (7-1)
8. Utah (9-0)
9. Boise State (8-0)
10. Oklahoma State (8-1)
Just Missed: Ohio State, TCU, Ball State, LSU, Georgia
Again, go out and vote if you have not and you read this on Tuesday. Our nation will elect new leaders in 2008, and then college football will take the national spotlight away for the crazy run through November. Tons of great football on the schedule this week, so get out there and enjoy it!
Friday, October 31, 2008
Pulse of the Town: Cincinnati, Ohio
Settling in for a game at Nippert stadium, located right in the heart of Cincinnati, Ohio, you realize this is where real college football is played. The Bearcats definitely play third fiddle to the well-known professional sports teams in this city, but yet the UC campus pulls off a sense of community in the middle of that hustle and bustle. This may be BCS football, but it is far from the corporate glitzy giants in nearby Knoxville, Columbus, and Ann Arbor. A perfect balance of big-time big city and small town college football, Cincinnati is a great place to see a football game. On tonight's docket we have a pre-Halloween bash between South Florida (6-2, 1-2 Big East) and Cincinnati (5-2, 1-1 Big East). Neither team can afford another loss if they wish to have any hope of a BCS bowl, which would be a first for either program.
Pre-game festivities at UC include the Cincinnati band playing on the campus green. This week the theme of the halftime show is obvious, great Halloween music. Playing old time hits like "The Monster Mash," the band knew how to get the crowd in the mood for Halloween and good football. With the pregame still going on strong, I made my way into Nippert Stadium to see the warm-ups.
These teams look pretty motivated coming off disappointing losses. It's always easy to get back up off the mat when it's a nationally-televised game 5 days later, and I saw no sagging shoulders. Both teams should come out strong. I've never seen a home team come out to fireworks in all the games I have attended, but that's exactly what UC does, shooting quite a few blasts of red fireworks from the field as they run across the field toward the crazed student section. Tonight is "black-out" night in Nippert, and the fans have done a nice job filling the stands on a weeknight with a sea of black. At least it will be easy to see the bright green on the USF family and friends, and it would be impossible to lose an actual Bulls player in their all-white jerseys.
The first quarter begins, and the Bearcats start with the ball first. A drive that starts from the 26-yard line, Cincinnati started out balanced and got a nice third-down pass from QB Tony Pike to convert their first third-down. However, a fumble two plays later forced by CB Tyller Roberts was recovered by USF on the 50 yard line. On the Bulls' first third down, pressure forced a bad decision by QB Matt Grothe, who was intercepted and the big return by CB Mike Mickens took it all the way to the USF 14. Cincinnati took four plays to drive it in, but the red zone offense was clicking and RB John Goebel ran it in from two yards out for his fifth touchdown of the season to make it UC 7 - USF 0.
On the ensuing possession, USF wasted no time, going 81 yards in four plays over only 1:37 on the clock, highlighted by an amazing 48 yard grab around midfield. RB Mo Plancher picked up the 1-yard touchdown run, making it USF 7 - UC 7.
Cincinnati came back with a nick kick return to start the next drive at the UC 36. Cincinnati overcame a holding penalty with a 48 yard pass to WR Mardy Gilyard, leading into a 32 yard field goal by PK Jake Rogers. UC 10 - USF 7.
The Bulls survived a 4th-and-1 on the next possession on their end of the field and started driving down the field again into the second quarter. Once they got into Bearcat territory, the defense stiffened and forced a punt, putting UC on their own 9 yard line. Cincinnati brought out the hurry-up offense and it really put the Bulls defense on their heels, as Cincinnati produced five straight first downs on five consecutive plays and capped the drive with a 26-yard touchdown pass from QB Tony Pike to WR Mardy Gilyard. UC 17 - USF 7.
The Bulls converted one first down on the next possession, but brought out the punt team for only the second time tonight. Cincinnati's offense kept on grinding though, using an aerial assault on the USF defense to drive all the way to the USF 19 before a well-timed interception, SS Carlton Williams returned the ball to the UC 43. Still on a crucial third down, the tip ball drill came in handy as the Bearcats tipped a Matt Grothe pass into the air and found the interception by DE Lamonte Nelms. With time winding down below a minute in the half, Cincinnati again tried the air assault but fumbled the ball after a 33 yard reception at the USF 25. The Bulls were content to run out the remaining seconds on the half. HALFTIME SCORE: CINCINNATI 17 - SOUTH FLORIDA 7.
HALFTIME THOUGHTS - After disappointing with a narrow win against Rutgers and a disappearing act at Connecticut, Cincinnati has come out firing on all cylinders tonight with 227 yards passing and 281 for the half (averaging 270 in the air and 403 overall per game to date). South Florida has to find some way to get pressure on QB Tony Pike without letting him run out of the pocket and bust big plays. There's not a whole lot going wrong on Cincinnati's end, but a few penalties at bad times could be making this game closer than it looks. At this point, I'm calling for a better effort out of USF as they keep churning yards on the ground, but Cincinnati looks like they have too much for this Bulls team tonight.
Thankfully for the Bulls, they do get the ball to start the second half. Unfortunately for them, the ball went ten yards backwards after one first down, and USF punted away to put Cincinnati in good field position at their own 41. Cincinnati also started the first half going backwards and punting, setting up USF on their own 42. Could this be an omen of things to come or just like the first half when both teams sputtered initially then got rolling quickly? The Bulls ended up moving the ball a little bit and PK Maikon Bonani hit a clutch 49 yard field goal to cut the deficit to a touchdown. USF 10 - UC 17.
The Cincinnati offense again tried the deep ball on the following possession, but came up enmpty this time around. Another punt gave the Bulls decent field position at their 23 yard line. The Bulls really started grinding out some yards before another tip drill juggle of a pass was intercepted by DB DeAngelo Smith near midfield. The Cincinnati offensive line is now showing they can run block as well as pass protect, as Cincinnati has started moving the ball on the ground for the first time all night. Still, the drive stalled on the USF 45 and a punt bounced into the endzone for a touchback. Clearly USF has the momentum, but the time has to be now for a big game-changing drive. QB Matt Grothe does not seem to be the same poised leader tonight as he has been, failing to connect on passes and not finding enough running room to prevent another USF punt. Cincinnati is thriving off the play of the defense and now the offense keeps moving the ball little by little to grind down the third-quarter clock. A spectacular "sportscenter" grab ended the third quarter with the Bearcats driving in the USF red zone. UC 17 - USF 10.
Going into the fourth quarter, the key stat of the game is third-down conversions: UC is 5 of 9, USF is struggling at 3 of 11. Most of the yardage tonight is through the air for the Bearcats, and a 1-yard touchdown pass to DE Connor Barwin (not a target I think USF counted on). UC 24 - USF 10.
Even though there's still over fourteen minutes left, the Bulls must have some urgency to get back into this game. Starting from their own 20 yard line, USF quarterback Matt Grothe finally found that busted play to run on and found 40 yards of daylight to push the Bulls into Cincinnati territory. Once in the redzone, the offense stalled out and could not convert, leaving Cincinnati the ball on their own 5 yard line but with a 14-point margin and only 8 minutes to victory. Cincinnati could do nothing backed up in their end zone, so South Florida would get another opportunity to drive on Cincinnati's side of the field. Again a drive stalled in the redzone, and Cincinnati really took a deathgrip on the game with 4:44 left. After a long run on first down, the USF defenders look tired and beaten. Cincinnati runs the clock out, FINAL SCORE CINCINNATI 24, SOUTH FLORIDA 10.
POSTGAME - Going down to the postgame news conference, a very laid back quartet of Bearcats explained some things about the game. DE Connor Barwin definitely had serious joy reliving his days at tight end when he scored on a 1-yard touchdown pass, saying he was determined to not let the opportunity pass him by. QB Tony Pike said that he was too sore in the fourth quarter to continue after putting up brilliant numbers, but by that point the Bearcats were taking direct snaps anyways, which Pike cannot handle with his cast on the arm after the Connecticut game. WR Mardy Gilyard said the team really hates coming in on a short week and practicing Sunday after a bad loss, but it gave them a chance to atone and they had 3 days of practice which led them to victory. Coach Brian Kelley confirmed that he thought the game was won on Sunday by the players responding to the loss with an excellent practice. Kelley said his offensive line and defense played their best games of the year, and he hopes they can keep the intensity up for a tough road game next weekend at West Virginia. After going an abysmal 0 for 15 on third downs in the previous week, the key improvement was getting that statistic back up 50%. Kelley also said it was a lot easier to motivate his players to recover thanks to the Thursday night national television audience coming to their home stadium.
Looking ahead, South Florida is officially out of the conference chase at 1-3. Still, the Bulls are bowl-eligible and will want to recover from tonight to play well at home in 2 weeks against Rutgers, as UCONN and WVU await at the end of November. As for the Bearcats, they still have their destiny in their own hands, as the only undefeated in conference play is their next opponent WVU. The Mountaineers are a tough out at home, but the way Cincinnati played tonight, there's no doubt the Bearcats can get it done.
One final note before I log off for the evening. You always meet fascinating people on these trips in the press box, and tonight I had the pleasure of meeting Joe Connor, a San Diego native traveling across country again this fall in a sponsored biodiesel car. He takes in many sporting events as he crosses the country extolling the value of biodiesel fuels. As our country still faces an energy and oil crisis, it's very good to see people like Joe having fun at college events while also working on a good cause for the Los Angeles Times. You can check out his website at greenpowersportstour.com, and perhaps we will cross paths again one day Mr. Connor.
With that said, Happy Halloween and enjoy the great slate of games this weekend! We'll see you next Tuesday!
Pulse of the town is a feature piece on the game day experience, recapping the game and finding out how different fan bases party every weekend. After all, without the fans we are nothing!
Pre-game festivities at UC include the Cincinnati band playing on the campus green. This week the theme of the halftime show is obvious, great Halloween music. Playing old time hits like "The Monster Mash," the band knew how to get the crowd in the mood for Halloween and good football. With the pregame still going on strong, I made my way into Nippert Stadium to see the warm-ups.
These teams look pretty motivated coming off disappointing losses. It's always easy to get back up off the mat when it's a nationally-televised game 5 days later, and I saw no sagging shoulders. Both teams should come out strong. I've never seen a home team come out to fireworks in all the games I have attended, but that's exactly what UC does, shooting quite a few blasts of red fireworks from the field as they run across the field toward the crazed student section. Tonight is "black-out" night in Nippert, and the fans have done a nice job filling the stands on a weeknight with a sea of black. At least it will be easy to see the bright green on the USF family and friends, and it would be impossible to lose an actual Bulls player in their all-white jerseys.
The first quarter begins, and the Bearcats start with the ball first. A drive that starts from the 26-yard line, Cincinnati started out balanced and got a nice third-down pass from QB Tony Pike to convert their first third-down. However, a fumble two plays later forced by CB Tyller Roberts was recovered by USF on the 50 yard line. On the Bulls' first third down, pressure forced a bad decision by QB Matt Grothe, who was intercepted and the big return by CB Mike Mickens took it all the way to the USF 14. Cincinnati took four plays to drive it in, but the red zone offense was clicking and RB John Goebel ran it in from two yards out for his fifth touchdown of the season to make it UC 7 - USF 0.
On the ensuing possession, USF wasted no time, going 81 yards in four plays over only 1:37 on the clock, highlighted by an amazing 48 yard grab around midfield. RB Mo Plancher picked up the 1-yard touchdown run, making it USF 7 - UC 7.
Cincinnati came back with a nick kick return to start the next drive at the UC 36. Cincinnati overcame a holding penalty with a 48 yard pass to WR Mardy Gilyard, leading into a 32 yard field goal by PK Jake Rogers. UC 10 - USF 7.
The Bulls survived a 4th-and-1 on the next possession on their end of the field and started driving down the field again into the second quarter. Once they got into Bearcat territory, the defense stiffened and forced a punt, putting UC on their own 9 yard line. Cincinnati brought out the hurry-up offense and it really put the Bulls defense on their heels, as Cincinnati produced five straight first downs on five consecutive plays and capped the drive with a 26-yard touchdown pass from QB Tony Pike to WR Mardy Gilyard. UC 17 - USF 7.
The Bulls converted one first down on the next possession, but brought out the punt team for only the second time tonight. Cincinnati's offense kept on grinding though, using an aerial assault on the USF defense to drive all the way to the USF 19 before a well-timed interception, SS Carlton Williams returned the ball to the UC 43. Still on a crucial third down, the tip ball drill came in handy as the Bearcats tipped a Matt Grothe pass into the air and found the interception by DE Lamonte Nelms. With time winding down below a minute in the half, Cincinnati again tried the air assault but fumbled the ball after a 33 yard reception at the USF 25. The Bulls were content to run out the remaining seconds on the half. HALFTIME SCORE: CINCINNATI 17 - SOUTH FLORIDA 7.
HALFTIME THOUGHTS - After disappointing with a narrow win against Rutgers and a disappearing act at Connecticut, Cincinnati has come out firing on all cylinders tonight with 227 yards passing and 281 for the half (averaging 270 in the air and 403 overall per game to date). South Florida has to find some way to get pressure on QB Tony Pike without letting him run out of the pocket and bust big plays. There's not a whole lot going wrong on Cincinnati's end, but a few penalties at bad times could be making this game closer than it looks. At this point, I'm calling for a better effort out of USF as they keep churning yards on the ground, but Cincinnati looks like they have too much for this Bulls team tonight.
Thankfully for the Bulls, they do get the ball to start the second half. Unfortunately for them, the ball went ten yards backwards after one first down, and USF punted away to put Cincinnati in good field position at their own 41. Cincinnati also started the first half going backwards and punting, setting up USF on their own 42. Could this be an omen of things to come or just like the first half when both teams sputtered initially then got rolling quickly? The Bulls ended up moving the ball a little bit and PK Maikon Bonani hit a clutch 49 yard field goal to cut the deficit to a touchdown. USF 10 - UC 17.
The Cincinnati offense again tried the deep ball on the following possession, but came up enmpty this time around. Another punt gave the Bulls decent field position at their 23 yard line. The Bulls really started grinding out some yards before another tip drill juggle of a pass was intercepted by DB DeAngelo Smith near midfield. The Cincinnati offensive line is now showing they can run block as well as pass protect, as Cincinnati has started moving the ball on the ground for the first time all night. Still, the drive stalled on the USF 45 and a punt bounced into the endzone for a touchback. Clearly USF has the momentum, but the time has to be now for a big game-changing drive. QB Matt Grothe does not seem to be the same poised leader tonight as he has been, failing to connect on passes and not finding enough running room to prevent another USF punt. Cincinnati is thriving off the play of the defense and now the offense keeps moving the ball little by little to grind down the third-quarter clock. A spectacular "sportscenter" grab ended the third quarter with the Bearcats driving in the USF red zone. UC 17 - USF 10.
Going into the fourth quarter, the key stat of the game is third-down conversions: UC is 5 of 9, USF is struggling at 3 of 11. Most of the yardage tonight is through the air for the Bearcats, and a 1-yard touchdown pass to DE Connor Barwin (not a target I think USF counted on). UC 24 - USF 10.
Even though there's still over fourteen minutes left, the Bulls must have some urgency to get back into this game. Starting from their own 20 yard line, USF quarterback Matt Grothe finally found that busted play to run on and found 40 yards of daylight to push the Bulls into Cincinnati territory. Once in the redzone, the offense stalled out and could not convert, leaving Cincinnati the ball on their own 5 yard line but with a 14-point margin and only 8 minutes to victory. Cincinnati could do nothing backed up in their end zone, so South Florida would get another opportunity to drive on Cincinnati's side of the field. Again a drive stalled in the redzone, and Cincinnati really took a deathgrip on the game with 4:44 left. After a long run on first down, the USF defenders look tired and beaten. Cincinnati runs the clock out, FINAL SCORE CINCINNATI 24, SOUTH FLORIDA 10.
POSTGAME - Going down to the postgame news conference, a very laid back quartet of Bearcats explained some things about the game. DE Connor Barwin definitely had serious joy reliving his days at tight end when he scored on a 1-yard touchdown pass, saying he was determined to not let the opportunity pass him by. QB Tony Pike said that he was too sore in the fourth quarter to continue after putting up brilliant numbers, but by that point the Bearcats were taking direct snaps anyways, which Pike cannot handle with his cast on the arm after the Connecticut game. WR Mardy Gilyard said the team really hates coming in on a short week and practicing Sunday after a bad loss, but it gave them a chance to atone and they had 3 days of practice which led them to victory. Coach Brian Kelley confirmed that he thought the game was won on Sunday by the players responding to the loss with an excellent practice. Kelley said his offensive line and defense played their best games of the year, and he hopes they can keep the intensity up for a tough road game next weekend at West Virginia. After going an abysmal 0 for 15 on third downs in the previous week, the key improvement was getting that statistic back up 50%. Kelley also said it was a lot easier to motivate his players to recover thanks to the Thursday night national television audience coming to their home stadium.
Looking ahead, South Florida is officially out of the conference chase at 1-3. Still, the Bulls are bowl-eligible and will want to recover from tonight to play well at home in 2 weeks against Rutgers, as UCONN and WVU await at the end of November. As for the Bearcats, they still have their destiny in their own hands, as the only undefeated in conference play is their next opponent WVU. The Mountaineers are a tough out at home, but the way Cincinnati played tonight, there's no doubt the Bearcats can get it done.
One final note before I log off for the evening. You always meet fascinating people on these trips in the press box, and tonight I had the pleasure of meeting Joe Connor, a San Diego native traveling across country again this fall in a sponsored biodiesel car. He takes in many sporting events as he crosses the country extolling the value of biodiesel fuels. As our country still faces an energy and oil crisis, it's very good to see people like Joe having fun at college events while also working on a good cause for the Los Angeles Times. You can check out his website at greenpowersportstour.com, and perhaps we will cross paths again one day Mr. Connor.
With that said, Happy Halloween and enjoy the great slate of games this weekend! We'll see you next Tuesday!
Pulse of the town is a feature piece on the game day experience, recapping the game and finding out how different fan bases party every weekend. After all, without the fans we are nothing!
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Trick or Treat: Top Contenders Want To Know
Ghosts and Ghouls unite! There's free candy at every door this week, but BCS contenders cannot spend time thinking about sweet times. There's still a little over a month of work to do before the BCS lineup is set, and there will certainly be pitfalls and traps along the way. This week we begin the BCS projections, sure-fire to go wrong until December! Plus, this week we take an in-depth look at the Big East championship chase as I will be taking in an elimination game on Thursday night as South Florida travels to Cincinnati.
All of a sudden, things are stable at the top of the BCS chase. While it's not bound to last forever, Texas, Alabama, and Penn State certainly proved they are capable of passing their biggest tests by surviving a trio of tough games last Saturday. Nobody thought Texas could run the Oklahoma-Missouri-OK State-Texas Tech gauntlet, but here they stand 3-0 in the first three weeks of that run. Tough road battles remain at Tech and Kansas, but the Longhorns look more dominant than even the 2005 team that won the National Championship.
Alabama keeps getting questioned for slow second half play, but the fact is that Nick Saban has a tough bunch of kids who know how to hold onto a lead. They overcame their fierce rival Tennessee and have what it takes to down LSU and Auburn in their down years. The Joe-Pa express could not be derailed either, as PSU has overcome the two houses of horror they've faced in Big Ten play (7 straight losses to Michigan and an 0-7 record in Columbus snapped). In fact, the HD offense used Tresselball against the king of the Big Ten and will almost certainly be taking the crown from the three-time champs. The remainder of the standings were also pretty solid as teams like Oklahoma, USC, and Florida kept up their blistering paces.
No surprise, the fire now mentality in college football continues to take its deadly grasp. Following Tommy Bowden out the door is Washington's Tyrone Willingham, who has won 11 games in three and a half seasons. It's really hard to understand what has happened in Seattle. Willingham had just as much success at Notre Dame as the coaches he followed, yet could not bring the same level of play to Washington. This could be the end of the road for his coaching career, at least at the head coaching level. Look on the bright side though Tyrone, there's always a chance Lou Holtz will need a new co-host and it would be amazing to hear the two former Notre Dame coaches ham it up. U-Dub should have waited five weeks, but the firing was inevitable.
Speaking of bad things in college football, entitled fan bases need to grow up and realize what blessings they have. I'm taking aim at a fan base I am particularly well-read in, that of the Ohio State Buckeyes. Let's face it, the Buckeyes did not deserve to play for a national title last season. However, people do not give them credit for just how close the game against the far-superior talent of LSU was, in LSU's home stadium (practically). This season the Buckeyes have not lived up to lofty expectations due to offensive player struggles and especially the line play. But even after a loss to Penn State, OSU stands at 7-2, #12 in the BCS and has a very winnable finishing stretch to likely end up in another BCS bowl. If Penn State wins out, a likely berth in Pasadena for only the second time in 25 years will await the Buckeyes. Yet a local Columbus poll showed 76% of fans consider this season "a lost season." What? I know over 100 teams that would trade places with the Buckeyes right now, maybe even more. When a Rose Bowl berth and a fifth straight win against Michigan are not enough? Wake up Buckeye fans...no dynasty wins them all every year. This is a bigger problem than just this fanbase, but college football fans need to temper their expectations and enjoy what they have.
This week will be the first game I go to on behalf of SCS this season, so let's take a brief look at the Big East chase. Syracuse and Rutgers aside, any of the next six teams could end up in the BCS. South Florida has left themselves no margin for error after losses to Pittsburgh and Louisville. After a crazy week in conference play, West Virginia stands at the top at 2-0 while UCONN, Pitt, Louisville, and Cincinnati each have one conference loss. This week will separate the contenders more as WVU travels to Connecticut and USF goes to Cincinnati. It will be interesting to see how the Bearcats and Bulls come off very disappointing losses, as only one will remain in the BCS chase after this Thursday. I'll have more on the experience this time next week.
Before turning to this week's slate of games, a quick run through on how the BCS will work this season. All teams ranked in the Top 14 with at least nine wins are eligible. Conference champion affiliations include Pac-10 and Big Ten to the Rose, SEC to the Sugar, ACC to the Orange, and Big XII to the Fiesta. After the #1 and #2 teams are placed in the Championship and the conference champions are placed, the picking order in 2008 for at-large teams is as follows: the bowl who lost their conference champ and #1 team to the BCS Championship, then the bowl who lost #2, then the Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange in that order. Got all that? Let's put it to work!
At this point I project Texas and Penn State will end up undefeated, meeting in the BCS Championship. The remaining BCS conference champions will be West Virginia (Big East), USC (Pac-10, Rose Bowl), Florida (SEC, Sugar Bowl), and Florida State (ACC, Orange Bowl). The at-large pool will then include Alabama, Oklahoma, Georgia, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Utah, Boise State, Ohio State, and TCU among others. The Fiesta will want Ohio State, but will be blocked by the Rose Bowl in all likelihood. Thus, the Fiesta takes Oklahoma again. Then the Rose replaces PSU with Ohio State. This leaves the Fiesta probably grabbing Alabama for a crimson showdown. The Sugar will grab West Virginia, leaving Boise State to the Orange Bowl (assuming Utah loses). This leaves us with...
BCS Projections October 27, 2008
BCS Championship in Miami - Texas vs. Penn State
Fiesta Bowl - Oklahoma vs. Alabama
Sugar Bowl - Florida vs. West Virginia
Orange Bowl - Florida State vs. Boise State
Rose Bowl - USC vs. Ohio State
You have to admit, it looks good at the beginning of November. Now if half of it is right in December, we'll call it a success!
The third best game of the week was a tough call, but the ACC will get into the spotlight for the first time with Florida State visiting Georgia Tech. Florida State is a lot like Penn State, stepping back to glory quietly in 2008. Outside of a disappearance against Wake Forest in September, the Seminoles have an offense that is rolling behind new QB Christian Ponder and RB Antone Smith. The real story in 2008 is the vastly improved line play on both sides of the ball. This strength will be tested by a Georgia Tech team that has played very well defensively and has more than enough offensive punch as well. Georgia Tech is a game behind Virginia in the Coastal after the loss to the Cavaliers and so cannot afford another loss. Look for the new-style Yellowjacket offense to confuse the Seminole defense a little. Still, Florida State comes up with a crucial turnover late and wins by 3.
The second game of the week is Texas at Texas Tech, which sets a new record as the Longhorns have a top 3 game of the week for four weeks running now. These teams match 4-0 conference records and 8-0 overall records, but the Longhorns have survived the much tougher schedule thus far. Everybody knows what Texas and Colt McCoy bring to the table, so the key will be if Texas Tech has enough defense this season to win the big game. Crazy things have happened to the Longhorns in Lubbick before, and WR Michael Crabtree should open up some opportunities for oft-forgotten running backs Baron Batch and Shannon Woods. Although there's a lot to love about this Texas Tech team, the Longhorns do not even look worn down by the killer October gauntlet. Texas avoids the upset and all but finishes off a South division title with a 10 point win.
Florida at Georgia. Outside of the USC-OSU game, this was the one everyone looked forward to in August. While both teams have lost a conference game, each remains in the thick of the national title race. A win in the Cocktail Party (long live the name) will decide the SEC East as expected as well as eliminate another BCS Championship contender. The loser could still jump Alabama for the second SEC berth in the BCS, but Urban Meyer and Mark Richt were not hired to lose this game. Don't expect any antics of rushing the field this time, but there will be a lot of trick plays featuring talents such as WR Percy Harvin, QB Tim Tebow, RB Knowshon Moreno, and QB Matthew Stafford. Despite all the offensive firepower, the defense will be the difference. Florida has only given up 83 points all season, with 31 of those coming in the shocker loss to Ole Miss. Georgia has given up 162 points and has a lot more trouble stiffening up in the end zone. That's bad news against a team this talented. Gator chomp by 13.
2008 GOTW Record: 15-12
Last Week: 3-0
Fitz Top 10 - Week 9
1. Penn State (9-0)
2. Texas (8-0)
3. Alabama (8-0)
4. Texas Tech (8-0)
5. Oklahoma (7-1)
6. Georgia (7-1)
7. USC (6-1)
8. Florida (6-1)
9. Utah (8-0)
10. Boise State (7-0)
Just Missed: Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Tulsa, TCU, Ball State
This will be a momentous week for me yet again (seems like it's every week this football season), as I will find out some bar exam results just a few hours after I cover the UC-USF game. Wish me luck, and have a great week!
All of a sudden, things are stable at the top of the BCS chase. While it's not bound to last forever, Texas, Alabama, and Penn State certainly proved they are capable of passing their biggest tests by surviving a trio of tough games last Saturday. Nobody thought Texas could run the Oklahoma-Missouri-OK State-Texas Tech gauntlet, but here they stand 3-0 in the first three weeks of that run. Tough road battles remain at Tech and Kansas, but the Longhorns look more dominant than even the 2005 team that won the National Championship.
Alabama keeps getting questioned for slow second half play, but the fact is that Nick Saban has a tough bunch of kids who know how to hold onto a lead. They overcame their fierce rival Tennessee and have what it takes to down LSU and Auburn in their down years. The Joe-Pa express could not be derailed either, as PSU has overcome the two houses of horror they've faced in Big Ten play (7 straight losses to Michigan and an 0-7 record in Columbus snapped). In fact, the HD offense used Tresselball against the king of the Big Ten and will almost certainly be taking the crown from the three-time champs. The remainder of the standings were also pretty solid as teams like Oklahoma, USC, and Florida kept up their blistering paces.
No surprise, the fire now mentality in college football continues to take its deadly grasp. Following Tommy Bowden out the door is Washington's Tyrone Willingham, who has won 11 games in three and a half seasons. It's really hard to understand what has happened in Seattle. Willingham had just as much success at Notre Dame as the coaches he followed, yet could not bring the same level of play to Washington. This could be the end of the road for his coaching career, at least at the head coaching level. Look on the bright side though Tyrone, there's always a chance Lou Holtz will need a new co-host and it would be amazing to hear the two former Notre Dame coaches ham it up. U-Dub should have waited five weeks, but the firing was inevitable.
Speaking of bad things in college football, entitled fan bases need to grow up and realize what blessings they have. I'm taking aim at a fan base I am particularly well-read in, that of the Ohio State Buckeyes. Let's face it, the Buckeyes did not deserve to play for a national title last season. However, people do not give them credit for just how close the game against the far-superior talent of LSU was, in LSU's home stadium (practically). This season the Buckeyes have not lived up to lofty expectations due to offensive player struggles and especially the line play. But even after a loss to Penn State, OSU stands at 7-2, #12 in the BCS and has a very winnable finishing stretch to likely end up in another BCS bowl. If Penn State wins out, a likely berth in Pasadena for only the second time in 25 years will await the Buckeyes. Yet a local Columbus poll showed 76% of fans consider this season "a lost season." What? I know over 100 teams that would trade places with the Buckeyes right now, maybe even more. When a Rose Bowl berth and a fifth straight win against Michigan are not enough? Wake up Buckeye fans...no dynasty wins them all every year. This is a bigger problem than just this fanbase, but college football fans need to temper their expectations and enjoy what they have.
This week will be the first game I go to on behalf of SCS this season, so let's take a brief look at the Big East chase. Syracuse and Rutgers aside, any of the next six teams could end up in the BCS. South Florida has left themselves no margin for error after losses to Pittsburgh and Louisville. After a crazy week in conference play, West Virginia stands at the top at 2-0 while UCONN, Pitt, Louisville, and Cincinnati each have one conference loss. This week will separate the contenders more as WVU travels to Connecticut and USF goes to Cincinnati. It will be interesting to see how the Bearcats and Bulls come off very disappointing losses, as only one will remain in the BCS chase after this Thursday. I'll have more on the experience this time next week.
Before turning to this week's slate of games, a quick run through on how the BCS will work this season. All teams ranked in the Top 14 with at least nine wins are eligible. Conference champion affiliations include Pac-10 and Big Ten to the Rose, SEC to the Sugar, ACC to the Orange, and Big XII to the Fiesta. After the #1 and #2 teams are placed in the Championship and the conference champions are placed, the picking order in 2008 for at-large teams is as follows: the bowl who lost their conference champ and #1 team to the BCS Championship, then the bowl who lost #2, then the Fiesta, Sugar, and Orange in that order. Got all that? Let's put it to work!
At this point I project Texas and Penn State will end up undefeated, meeting in the BCS Championship. The remaining BCS conference champions will be West Virginia (Big East), USC (Pac-10, Rose Bowl), Florida (SEC, Sugar Bowl), and Florida State (ACC, Orange Bowl). The at-large pool will then include Alabama, Oklahoma, Georgia, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Utah, Boise State, Ohio State, and TCU among others. The Fiesta will want Ohio State, but will be blocked by the Rose Bowl in all likelihood. Thus, the Fiesta takes Oklahoma again. Then the Rose replaces PSU with Ohio State. This leaves the Fiesta probably grabbing Alabama for a crimson showdown. The Sugar will grab West Virginia, leaving Boise State to the Orange Bowl (assuming Utah loses). This leaves us with...
BCS Projections October 27, 2008
BCS Championship in Miami - Texas vs. Penn State
Fiesta Bowl - Oklahoma vs. Alabama
Sugar Bowl - Florida vs. West Virginia
Orange Bowl - Florida State vs. Boise State
Rose Bowl - USC vs. Ohio State
You have to admit, it looks good at the beginning of November. Now if half of it is right in December, we'll call it a success!
The third best game of the week was a tough call, but the ACC will get into the spotlight for the first time with Florida State visiting Georgia Tech. Florida State is a lot like Penn State, stepping back to glory quietly in 2008. Outside of a disappearance against Wake Forest in September, the Seminoles have an offense that is rolling behind new QB Christian Ponder and RB Antone Smith. The real story in 2008 is the vastly improved line play on both sides of the ball. This strength will be tested by a Georgia Tech team that has played very well defensively and has more than enough offensive punch as well. Georgia Tech is a game behind Virginia in the Coastal after the loss to the Cavaliers and so cannot afford another loss. Look for the new-style Yellowjacket offense to confuse the Seminole defense a little. Still, Florida State comes up with a crucial turnover late and wins by 3.
The second game of the week is Texas at Texas Tech, which sets a new record as the Longhorns have a top 3 game of the week for four weeks running now. These teams match 4-0 conference records and 8-0 overall records, but the Longhorns have survived the much tougher schedule thus far. Everybody knows what Texas and Colt McCoy bring to the table, so the key will be if Texas Tech has enough defense this season to win the big game. Crazy things have happened to the Longhorns in Lubbick before, and WR Michael Crabtree should open up some opportunities for oft-forgotten running backs Baron Batch and Shannon Woods. Although there's a lot to love about this Texas Tech team, the Longhorns do not even look worn down by the killer October gauntlet. Texas avoids the upset and all but finishes off a South division title with a 10 point win.
Florida at Georgia. Outside of the USC-OSU game, this was the one everyone looked forward to in August. While both teams have lost a conference game, each remains in the thick of the national title race. A win in the Cocktail Party (long live the name) will decide the SEC East as expected as well as eliminate another BCS Championship contender. The loser could still jump Alabama for the second SEC berth in the BCS, but Urban Meyer and Mark Richt were not hired to lose this game. Don't expect any antics of rushing the field this time, but there will be a lot of trick plays featuring talents such as WR Percy Harvin, QB Tim Tebow, RB Knowshon Moreno, and QB Matthew Stafford. Despite all the offensive firepower, the defense will be the difference. Florida has only given up 83 points all season, with 31 of those coming in the shocker loss to Ole Miss. Georgia has given up 162 points and has a lot more trouble stiffening up in the end zone. That's bad news against a team this talented. Gator chomp by 13.
2008 GOTW Record: 15-12
Last Week: 3-0
Fitz Top 10 - Week 9
1. Penn State (9-0)
2. Texas (8-0)
3. Alabama (8-0)
4. Texas Tech (8-0)
5. Oklahoma (7-1)
6. Georgia (7-1)
7. USC (6-1)
8. Florida (6-1)
9. Utah (8-0)
10. Boise State (7-0)
Just Missed: Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Tulsa, TCU, Ball State
This will be a momentous week for me yet again (seems like it's every week this football season), as I will find out some bar exam results just a few hours after I cover the UC-USF game. Wish me luck, and have a great week!
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