It seems really hard to call 2008 a down year for the best conference in America when a third straight national championship entered the coffers, but that's exactly what happened. The offenses were mediocre at best, the defenses were not up to the normal caliber, and rebuilding programs littered the landscape. While Vanderbilt and Alabama were great stories, the poor years of Georgia, LSU, and Tennessee overshadowed these success stories. Nevertheless, the SEc pulled it together in bowl season mostly and Florida won another hard-fought BCS Championship game. The conference would love to make it 4-for-4 in BCS Championships since the BCS added that fifth bowl, and again Florida is poised to become a true dynasty. The best news of all if that the SEC will be better overall in 2009, re-cementing them as the best in America.
THE CONTENDERS
Florida Gators
While there's no doubt these Gators have joined Miami and USC as the dynasty-like programs, Florida will need to do something all of those teams could not do: win two consecutive national championships. Florida only has to speak to their basketball program to understand what a challenge this is, but coach Urban Meyer will do his best to keep the Gators focused on the task. On the bright side, Florida has perhaps the easiest schedule of any of these dynasties we are speaking of this time around and have lost absolutely nobody outside of Percy Harvin has left. QB Tim Tebow will look to become a more well-rounded passer this season to give defenses even mroe to think about, while the defense returns all 11 starters from an outstanding unit. This team is so good it could lose a game and likely still end up in Pasadena, much like the LSU team from two seasons ago. The season comes down to a road game at LSU and the Jacksonville game against Georgia. Win one or both of these and we'll see the Gator chomp going for all the marbles again.
Georgia Bulldogs
Gerogia has nothing to be ashamed of after eight seasons of the Mark Richt era, but watching Florida and LSU swoop to 4 national titles has left Bulldog fans wondering when it will be their turn. Last year all the pieces were in place and Georgia just couldn't get over the Tebow hurdle. This year the Bulldogs must replace two of the best athletes in program history in Matthew Stafford and Knowshon Moreno, but there's still good talent on both lines and enough in the tank for a chance to knock off the vaunted Gators. Unlike last year when all the pressure was put on the two stars, look for the bulldogs to fly under the radar and play the underdog role very well, as only injuries should hold this program back from another January bowl game. The fans might not be incredibly happy being the bridesmaid again, but this is certainly better than rebuilding.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Speaking of overlooked programs, Alabama raced to 12-0 a year before the Crimson Tide was supposed to be great, and then two losses later to Florida and Utah, and everybody is ignoring the Tide thanks to Florida. Although John Parker Wilson is gone, Greg McElroy will be an even better quarterback for Nick Saban's offense. The defense should be able to plug the minor holes left by graduation as well, and the new stable of running backs will be more than adequate. The opening game against Virginia Tech will be just as important as last year's tilt with Clemson in really removing one contender from the national title hunt. The Tide misses Georgia and Florida as well, so winning the home game against LSU will put Alabama right back in the play-in game to the BCS Championship, also known as the SEC conference championship. Expect another January bowl game for this team.
LSU Tigers
LSU seems to be running on a four year cycle these days, ramping up to a national title every four years and dropping to mediocrity every second year after the title. LSU jumped the gun a bit on rebuilding last year by falling apart at the end of the season to finish 7-5, but a dismantling of Georgia Tech proved LSU could be back this season. Les Miles has spent the offseason really plugging the holes and problem areas from 2008, such as the defensive line. While there may not be any household names going into the season on the offense, look for WR Brandon LaFell and RB Charles Scott to become superstars in their senior seasons. The only problem for the Tigers is the most brutal schedule in the country, even with a joke non-conference slate. Road games at Georgia, Mississippi, and Alabama join a home date with Florida, all of which will probably derail the LSU train. Make no mistake, LSU will steal one or two of these games and may end up in the conference championship again with a chance to ruin Florida's dynasty dreams.
IN THE MIX
South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina seems to be a program that is better than expected with unknown coaches and worse than expected when they land a big fish. Steve Spurrier is trying to escape the same fate as Lou Holtz as the Gamecocks try to break into the competitive echelon of the East Division. It will be tough with Florida and Georgia being so good, but the Gamecocks are better than the past couple of seasons. The offensive line will probably determine whether the offense does enough to carry the team into legitimate battles with the better teams on the schedule. The defense has been more solid than most expected for a Spurrier team, and don't expect that to stop this year with fantastic LB Eric Norwood and LB Rodney Paulk. USC should be good for a couple surprises and another bowl appearance.
Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky is definitely a basketball school, but Rich Brooks has given Wildcat fans a reason to pay attention before the hoops season comes around. The Wildcats had a lot of close losses and wins last season and could've ended up with nine wins as eaily as three. As it turns out, Kentucky made another bowl game and won it this time with budding young talent which will be better-developed this year thanks to the experience. The defensive line is solid and the offensive line should be much better. The battle in the trenches will be crucial for UK to stay competitive in the SEC in 2009. Look for LB Danny Travathan and CB Trevard Lindley to give even Tim Tebow fits in the conference battles.
Mississippi Rebels
While the Mississippi athletic department seems to expect too much from the football program, this could be the season Ole Miss finally breaks out nationally as the fanbase desires. The Rebels are the trendy pick to steal the conference with the Houston Nutt system well known in year two and a huge lot of returning talent. The defense will be rock solid in all phases, but the line has a chance to be truly special behind a trio of ends Greg Hardy, Kentrell Lockett, and Marcus Tillman. Look for QB Jevan Snead to take the next step, even if he's not quite another coming of Eli Manning. Mississippi definitely could be in the SEC Championship, but they must take advantage of getting LSU and Alabama at home with Florida and Georgia off the schedule or else Coach Nutt might be as short-tenured as his predecessors.
Arkansas Razorbacks
The Razorbacks are right where they want to be, with nobody talking about them or taking the program seriously ater a 5-7 campaign. Sure, there are plenty of other good stories in the West Division, but Bobby Petrino is a great college coach and has Arkansas headed back to glory. Michigan transfer QB Ryan Mallett will lead a group of 18 returning starters who will be better but are really only holding the fort one more year before Petrino's talented recruits take over. Still, Arkansas could compete if they survive the murderer's row road schedule of Mississippi, Florida, Alabama, and LSU. A conference title will not happen yet, but the foundation will be laid with a couple big wins in all likelihood this year.
ALL THE REST
Tennessee Volunteers
Well the first year of the Lane Kiffin era was not a dream for this program's expectations, but there were signs of hope. Kiffin knows how to recruit and has brought in a ton of talent to shore up the major gaps left by Philip Fulmer when he left, incluiding a stable of running backs. Look for these young guns to shine quickly behind one of the best offensive lines in the conference. The Volunteers are an enigma this yeat but should be back in the mix as Florida and Georgia recede a bit in 2010.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Vanderbilt finally broke through to a bowl game in a great 2008 story, but that was a down year in the conference and everything needed to break right for it to happen. Although there is more experience and upgraded talent from the past few seasons, the offense will not fix itself overnight and the defense will not be able to carry this team to six wins again, in all likelihood. Bowl eligibility is the goal, but sadly that's all Commodore fans can look forward to being stuck in such a great conference.
Auburn Tigers
Although Tommy Tuberville's team fell apart at the end of last season and a 36-0 loss to heated rival Alabama finished the canning of the coach, Auburn perhaps took a bigger step backwards by hiring Gene Chizik, who went a whopping 5-19 at Iowa State. Chizik at least has mroe recruiting prowess to play with, but Alabama will continue to spank the Tigers for years as long as Nick Saban keeps the recruiting advantage he has now. All Chizik can hope for this year is showing some sense of competitiveness, which will be ver tough considering the rebuilding that needs done.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Unlike Auburn, who took a 36-0 on the chin and seemed to go the wrong way in rebuilding, Mississippi State grabbed a better head coach in Dan Mullen and has more talent to recover from their own 45-0 drubbing from their rival Mississippi in 2008. The defense should be fantastic, which will be important when needing to win those close games for bowl eligibility. Mullen has a fair amount of good recruits as well to restock the shelves and perhaps build to the occassional surprising season. Just not this year.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
TEAM CONFERENCE OVERALL
EAST
Florida 8-0 12-0
Georgia 6-2 9-3
Kentucky 4-4 8-4
Tennessee 3-5 7-5
South Carolina 3-5 5-7
Vanderbilt 1-7 4-8
WEST
Alabama 7-1 10-2
Mississippi 6-2 10-2
LSU 4-4 8-4
Arkansas 3-5 7-5
Mississippi State 2-6 4-8
Auburn 1-7 4-8
PRESEASON ALL-CONFERENCE
OFFENSE
QB Tim Tebow Florida
RB Michael Smith Arkansas
RB Anthony Dixon Mississippi State
WR Julio Jones Alabama
WR Brandon LaFell LSU
TE D.J. Williams Arkansas
OL Mike Pouncey Florida
OL Ciron Black LSU
OL John Jerry Mississippi
OL Mike Johnson Alabama
OL Trinton Sturdivant Georgia
DEFENSE
DL Jermain Cunningham Florida
DL Geno Atkins Georgia
DL Terrance Cody Alabama
DL Greg Hardy Mississippi
LB Eric Norwood South Carolina
LB Brandon Spikes Florida
LB Micah Johnson Kentucky
DB Eric Berry Tennessee
DB Javier Arenas Alabama
DB Trevard Lindley Kentucky
DB Ahmad Black Florida
SPECIAL TEAMS
K Joshua Shene Mississippi
P Chas Henry Florida
KR/PR Dennis Rogan Tennessee
Preseason Offensive Player of the Year:
Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
Preseason Defensive Player of the Year:
Eric Berry, DB, Tennessee
Preseason Special Teams Player of the Year:
Joshua Shene, K, Mississippi
Preseason Newcomer of the Year:
Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas
FINAL THOUGHTS
While nobody in the deep south would have you believe it, everyone knows the Big XII was one big Oklahoma win away from claiming best conference in America after a stunning 2008. However, the hardware and the titles remain in the SEC, and the conference certainly has the benefit of the doubt when it comes to one-loss teams thanks to competitive balance and past history. The only way Florida doesn't end up in Pasadena would be an upset in Jacksonville which would likely prevent them from playing in the all-important conference championship. However, there's more of a story with Mississippi rising, Alabama and Georgia competing, and some new coaches trying to find some upward momentum in the cellar. The best conference in America should earn the title this year, but it may not be enough to stop the juggernaut that is Florida. Thanks for joining us in this preview season and we look forward to bringing you some great weekly content beginning with our pre-season Fab 15 poll on Friday. A few short days before kickoff, let's prepare to enjoy the ride of 2009. See you next week!
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Monday, August 24, 2009
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREVIEW 2009: ACC
To an even greater extent than the Big Ten and the Big East conferences, the ACC has been maligned during the BCS football decade for not showing up on the national stage. Last year the competitive parity of the race allowed a rebuilding Virginia Tech squad to take their second-straight conference crown, but the prospects looked poor to improve on the dreadful 1-9 BCS bowl record. However, the Hokies took care of business against Cincinnati and all of a sudden, the ACC has a chance to be important on the national stage again. Most of the programs are improving and legitimate contenders are starting to emerge again, so perhaps the ACC will finally start to drop the "basketball conference" moniker in 2009.
THE CONTENDERS
Virginia Tech Hokies
The two-time defending conference champion has become the biggest steal from the old Big East, and Virginia Tech is hoping to proudly carry the ACC banner to the BCS Championship for the first time in a decade when Florida State won a championship. The defense is always good for a Frank Beamer team and this veteran unit has absolutely no holes to speak of. Look for the defensive line to force a lot of bad plays from the opposition, led by DE Jason Worilds. The only thing stopping the Hokies from being a BCS frontrunner is a young offense that has plenty of talent but has not proven they know the forward pass. QB Tyrod Taylor needs to become the dual-threat quarterback he was recruited to be, especially with a bunch of young speed at the wideout positions. The season should come down to two games, the opener against Alabama in Atlanta and the mid-October battle at Georgia Tech. Win both of those games, and there's no excuse for anything less than Pasadena.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Hello Tar Heel football, and welcome to the big time. Coach Butch Davis has brought in recruiting classes perhaps even better than Florida State and Virginia Tech the past two seasons, and all this young talent is just waiting to burst out after eight wins in 2008. The offense was awful last season and does not bring much to the table now, as RB Shaun Draughn may be the only bright spot in a questionable unit. The good news is that the defense has a lot of outstanding upperclassmen being pushed to greater heights by the young guns Davis has brought in. Road games at Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech will likely derail any hopes for a conference crown, but the Tar Heels could win every other game on the schedule and make the conference race very interesting of the Hokies slip up. Lots of low-scoring slugfests should be expected, but that's right where Butch Davis wants a game.
Florida State Seminoles
After a brief hiatus, the opener against Miami is back to start an exciting slate of games for the 2009 Seminoles. Florida State has not been in the conference championship for four seasons, but the team has enough talent as always to raise the bar to that level. QB Christian Ponder now has two seasons to be the superstar he's groomed to be, and look for much more in passing to balance the offense. If Ponder turns out to be the real deal, Florida State will run away with the Atlantic division. The defense has some holes to fill on the line, but Bobby Bowden has been working hard with the new starters in fall practice to be ready. There's enough questions to make this interesting, but Florida State should be playing Virginia Tech at the end of the season. The only thing stopping the Seminoles might be the bad draw of a Coastal division schedule in Georgia Tech, UNC, and Miami.
NC State Wolfpack
Here comes the surprise of 2009, your NC State Wolfpack. Coach Tom O'Brien proved he can turn a program around given 3-4 years at Boston College, and the Wolfpack have more than enough talent now to win the weaker Atlantic division of the ACC. QB Russell Wilson had a good freshman season and will become one of the better quarterbacks in the league in just his sophomore season. The only question on offense is whether the offensive line can give the Wolfpack enough time to make plays and establish a ground game. The defense will be solid, with only a few minor questions in the secondary to address. Assuming NC State can defend the home front with 8 wins, then simply stealing the game in Talahassee should be more than enough to find NC State playing for a shocking BCS berth this year.
IN THE MIX
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Paul Johnson brought his unique option attack from Navy and the Yellow Jackets exceeded everyone's expectations with 9 wins in his first season. Now Johnson will continue to bring the right kind of talent to run his offense in Atlanta and the ACC will soon have major problems containing this team. However, 2010 is probably still a little too soon to expect the building blocks to overcome the defenses in Chapel Hill and Blacksburg. Look for running backs Jonathan Dwyer and Roddy Jones to rack up ridiculous numbers and bruise defensive linebackers and secondaries all year. The defense has quite a few holes to fill, but the young talent should be very good by the end of the season. Even though UNC and Virginia Tech come to Atlanta, both games are in the front part of the season when the Yellow Jackets may not have it quite figured out. No doubt this team could be in the ACC championship, but this team appears to be more of a preparation for a huge national splash in 2010.
Miami Hurricanes
Just like Georgia Tech and UNC, the Hurricanes are back on the rise as a program and will make life tougher for Virginia Tech this year. Coach Randy Shannon has brought in a lot more blue-chip talent, but there still needs to be a lot of work on the defense to get the Hurricanes back to the elite status of the early part of the decade. The offense includes one of the best athletes in the country in WR Aldarius Johnson. The major problem holding Miami back is a brutal opening schedule that reads Florida State, then Georgia Tech, then Virginia Tech, then Oklahoma. If Miami is better than 1-3 to begin the season, that would be quite a steal. Nevertheless, the Hurricanes should not be disheartened with a bad start, as the schedule is ripe for a rebound and perhaps an 8 game winning streak to end the season. That would be the spark the program needs to be a national power in the near future.
Clemson Tigers
Clemson should probably be a perennial member of "in the mix" because they always have more than enough talent to run away with conference crowns but never have the focus to do it. Now Dabo Swinney has taken over the coaching reins and will try to remove this underachiever label. The offense has some star power as always in RB C.J. Spiller and WR Jacoby Ford, but the quarterback will be new. This would not be a concern if the offensive line was great, but they need a lot of work too if this team is to compete. The defense will be solid, but the key is definitely the offense in 2009. The schedule is not easy but if the Tigers say focused, ten wins is definitely possible.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Now the country will see just how far Wake Forest has come under Jim Grobe, as they try to replace seven starters off a great defensive unit including two high draft picks. The offense has been a real struggle in past seasons and the offensive line must come together to lead this team in 2009. Every lineman is young and has a year of experience, which bodes well. The defensive backfield will need to reload though for this program to stay in the conference championship mix for the next few years. Bowl eligibility should happen with four easy non-conference games and some winnable games in the division, but this may not be the Wake Forest from the past three seasons.
ALL THE REST
Virginia Cavaliers
The seat is getting mighty warm for Al Groh, who does not appear to have the Cavaliers headed upward while the rest of his conference and division is improving quickly. The offense has been very mediocre and needs an unproven quarterback to step up quickly to make the passing game a threat. The defense is replacing most of the starters as well and will have issues with inexperience. If Virginia manages bowl eligibility that would likely be a good season.
Duke Blue Devils
It may be blasphemy in ACC country, but the Blue Devils will be legitimate threats for bowl eligibility now with David Cutliffe bringing in nice talent for the program. The non-conference schedule is very winnable outside of Kansas, and this team could steal a few in conference play. Look for the defensive line to be the key to success, as there needs to be a pass rush or else the poor secondary will be exposed and leave the Blue Devil offense with way too much to do.
Maryland Terrapins
Ralph Freigden started as a hero at the helm with three straight ten-win seasons, but now the Terrapin program has just fallen into irrelevance and mediocrity. Look for more unpredciatbility this season, as Maryland replaces over half their starters and most of the offensive and defensive lines. Expect the foundation to be laid for the next regime the next year or two, but there will be some tough days ahead while rebuilding.
Boston College Eagles
How is it that a team that made the past two conference championship games ends up in the trash heap in one season? Perhaps the worst offseason in program history as random injuries, rare cancer, transfers, and a canned coach is the explanation. For Boston College to overcome all of these problems and turmoil in coach Frank Spaziani's first season would be an absolute miracle. Look for the Eagles to play with bowl eligibility but no more in 2009.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
TEAM CONFERENCE OVERALL
ATLANTIC
NC State 5-3 8-4
Florida State 5-3 7-5
Clemson 4-4 7-5
Wake Forest 3-5 7-5
Boston College 2-6 5-7
Maryland 2-6 4-8
COASTAL
Virginia Tech 7-1 11-1
Georgia Tech 6-2 9-3
North Carolinba 5-3 9-3
Miami 5-3 8-4
Virginia 3-5 6-6
Duke 1-7 4-8
PRESEASON ALL-CONFERENCE
OFFENSE
QB Tyrod Taylor Virginia Tech
RB C.J. Spiller Clemson
RB Jonathan Dwyer Georgia Tech
WR Aldarius Johnson Miami
WR Jacoby Ford Clemson
TE Greg Boone Virginia Tech
OL Sergio Render Virginia Tech
OL Thomas Austin Clemson
OL Chris DeGeare Wake Forest
OL Will Barker Virginia
OL Ryan McMahon Florida State
DEFENSE
DL Marvin Austin North Carolina
DL Jason Worilds Virginia Tech
DL Vince Oghobasse Duke
DL Boo Robinson Wake Forest
LB Quan Sturdivant North Carolina
LB Bruce Carter North Carolina
LB Alex Wujciak Maryland
DB Morgan Burnett Georgia Tech
DB Chris Chancellor Clemson
DB Kendric Burney North Carolina
DB Stephen Virgil Virginia Tech
SPECIAL TEAMS
K Matt Bosher Miami
P Travis Baltz Maryland
KR/PR Travis Benjamin Miami
Preseason Offensive Player of the Year:
C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
Preseason Defensive Player of the Year:
Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina
Preseason Special Teams Player of the Year:
Matt Bosher, K, Miami
Preseason Newcomer of the Year:
Monel Harris, RB, Boston College
FINAL THOUGHTS
Whether or not this is the year the ACC breaks out and gets some respect nationally, there are too many programs on the rise to let the doldrums of the 1-9 BCS Bowl game start continue to be the modus operandi of the conference. While the Atlantic will be a lot like last year, there are four teams in the Coastal to tak every seriously, headlined by national title contender Virginia Tech and option attack Georgia Tech. Knowing the ACC, there will be some surprises along the way before the conference crown is determined. 2009 is the beginning of a new era for the ACC, an era where they will be considered amongst the elite conferences in the country. We now stand less than two weeks away from kickoff, but there's one big elephant in the room left to cover, the beloved SEC. Join us on Wednesday for the SEC Preview as we wrap up the conference previews for 2009.
THE CONTENDERS
Virginia Tech Hokies
The two-time defending conference champion has become the biggest steal from the old Big East, and Virginia Tech is hoping to proudly carry the ACC banner to the BCS Championship for the first time in a decade when Florida State won a championship. The defense is always good for a Frank Beamer team and this veteran unit has absolutely no holes to speak of. Look for the defensive line to force a lot of bad plays from the opposition, led by DE Jason Worilds. The only thing stopping the Hokies from being a BCS frontrunner is a young offense that has plenty of talent but has not proven they know the forward pass. QB Tyrod Taylor needs to become the dual-threat quarterback he was recruited to be, especially with a bunch of young speed at the wideout positions. The season should come down to two games, the opener against Alabama in Atlanta and the mid-October battle at Georgia Tech. Win both of those games, and there's no excuse for anything less than Pasadena.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Hello Tar Heel football, and welcome to the big time. Coach Butch Davis has brought in recruiting classes perhaps even better than Florida State and Virginia Tech the past two seasons, and all this young talent is just waiting to burst out after eight wins in 2008. The offense was awful last season and does not bring much to the table now, as RB Shaun Draughn may be the only bright spot in a questionable unit. The good news is that the defense has a lot of outstanding upperclassmen being pushed to greater heights by the young guns Davis has brought in. Road games at Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech will likely derail any hopes for a conference crown, but the Tar Heels could win every other game on the schedule and make the conference race very interesting of the Hokies slip up. Lots of low-scoring slugfests should be expected, but that's right where Butch Davis wants a game.
Florida State Seminoles
After a brief hiatus, the opener against Miami is back to start an exciting slate of games for the 2009 Seminoles. Florida State has not been in the conference championship for four seasons, but the team has enough talent as always to raise the bar to that level. QB Christian Ponder now has two seasons to be the superstar he's groomed to be, and look for much more in passing to balance the offense. If Ponder turns out to be the real deal, Florida State will run away with the Atlantic division. The defense has some holes to fill on the line, but Bobby Bowden has been working hard with the new starters in fall practice to be ready. There's enough questions to make this interesting, but Florida State should be playing Virginia Tech at the end of the season. The only thing stopping the Seminoles might be the bad draw of a Coastal division schedule in Georgia Tech, UNC, and Miami.
NC State Wolfpack
Here comes the surprise of 2009, your NC State Wolfpack. Coach Tom O'Brien proved he can turn a program around given 3-4 years at Boston College, and the Wolfpack have more than enough talent now to win the weaker Atlantic division of the ACC. QB Russell Wilson had a good freshman season and will become one of the better quarterbacks in the league in just his sophomore season. The only question on offense is whether the offensive line can give the Wolfpack enough time to make plays and establish a ground game. The defense will be solid, with only a few minor questions in the secondary to address. Assuming NC State can defend the home front with 8 wins, then simply stealing the game in Talahassee should be more than enough to find NC State playing for a shocking BCS berth this year.
IN THE MIX
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Paul Johnson brought his unique option attack from Navy and the Yellow Jackets exceeded everyone's expectations with 9 wins in his first season. Now Johnson will continue to bring the right kind of talent to run his offense in Atlanta and the ACC will soon have major problems containing this team. However, 2010 is probably still a little too soon to expect the building blocks to overcome the defenses in Chapel Hill and Blacksburg. Look for running backs Jonathan Dwyer and Roddy Jones to rack up ridiculous numbers and bruise defensive linebackers and secondaries all year. The defense has quite a few holes to fill, but the young talent should be very good by the end of the season. Even though UNC and Virginia Tech come to Atlanta, both games are in the front part of the season when the Yellow Jackets may not have it quite figured out. No doubt this team could be in the ACC championship, but this team appears to be more of a preparation for a huge national splash in 2010.
Miami Hurricanes
Just like Georgia Tech and UNC, the Hurricanes are back on the rise as a program and will make life tougher for Virginia Tech this year. Coach Randy Shannon has brought in a lot more blue-chip talent, but there still needs to be a lot of work on the defense to get the Hurricanes back to the elite status of the early part of the decade. The offense includes one of the best athletes in the country in WR Aldarius Johnson. The major problem holding Miami back is a brutal opening schedule that reads Florida State, then Georgia Tech, then Virginia Tech, then Oklahoma. If Miami is better than 1-3 to begin the season, that would be quite a steal. Nevertheless, the Hurricanes should not be disheartened with a bad start, as the schedule is ripe for a rebound and perhaps an 8 game winning streak to end the season. That would be the spark the program needs to be a national power in the near future.
Clemson Tigers
Clemson should probably be a perennial member of "in the mix" because they always have more than enough talent to run away with conference crowns but never have the focus to do it. Now Dabo Swinney has taken over the coaching reins and will try to remove this underachiever label. The offense has some star power as always in RB C.J. Spiller and WR Jacoby Ford, but the quarterback will be new. This would not be a concern if the offensive line was great, but they need a lot of work too if this team is to compete. The defense will be solid, but the key is definitely the offense in 2009. The schedule is not easy but if the Tigers say focused, ten wins is definitely possible.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Now the country will see just how far Wake Forest has come under Jim Grobe, as they try to replace seven starters off a great defensive unit including two high draft picks. The offense has been a real struggle in past seasons and the offensive line must come together to lead this team in 2009. Every lineman is young and has a year of experience, which bodes well. The defensive backfield will need to reload though for this program to stay in the conference championship mix for the next few years. Bowl eligibility should happen with four easy non-conference games and some winnable games in the division, but this may not be the Wake Forest from the past three seasons.
ALL THE REST
Virginia Cavaliers
The seat is getting mighty warm for Al Groh, who does not appear to have the Cavaliers headed upward while the rest of his conference and division is improving quickly. The offense has been very mediocre and needs an unproven quarterback to step up quickly to make the passing game a threat. The defense is replacing most of the starters as well and will have issues with inexperience. If Virginia manages bowl eligibility that would likely be a good season.
Duke Blue Devils
It may be blasphemy in ACC country, but the Blue Devils will be legitimate threats for bowl eligibility now with David Cutliffe bringing in nice talent for the program. The non-conference schedule is very winnable outside of Kansas, and this team could steal a few in conference play. Look for the defensive line to be the key to success, as there needs to be a pass rush or else the poor secondary will be exposed and leave the Blue Devil offense with way too much to do.
Maryland Terrapins
Ralph Freigden started as a hero at the helm with three straight ten-win seasons, but now the Terrapin program has just fallen into irrelevance and mediocrity. Look for more unpredciatbility this season, as Maryland replaces over half their starters and most of the offensive and defensive lines. Expect the foundation to be laid for the next regime the next year or two, but there will be some tough days ahead while rebuilding.
Boston College Eagles
How is it that a team that made the past two conference championship games ends up in the trash heap in one season? Perhaps the worst offseason in program history as random injuries, rare cancer, transfers, and a canned coach is the explanation. For Boston College to overcome all of these problems and turmoil in coach Frank Spaziani's first season would be an absolute miracle. Look for the Eagles to play with bowl eligibility but no more in 2009.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
TEAM CONFERENCE OVERALL
ATLANTIC
NC State 5-3 8-4
Florida State 5-3 7-5
Clemson 4-4 7-5
Wake Forest 3-5 7-5
Boston College 2-6 5-7
Maryland 2-6 4-8
COASTAL
Virginia Tech 7-1 11-1
Georgia Tech 6-2 9-3
North Carolinba 5-3 9-3
Miami 5-3 8-4
Virginia 3-5 6-6
Duke 1-7 4-8
PRESEASON ALL-CONFERENCE
OFFENSE
QB Tyrod Taylor Virginia Tech
RB C.J. Spiller Clemson
RB Jonathan Dwyer Georgia Tech
WR Aldarius Johnson Miami
WR Jacoby Ford Clemson
TE Greg Boone Virginia Tech
OL Sergio Render Virginia Tech
OL Thomas Austin Clemson
OL Chris DeGeare Wake Forest
OL Will Barker Virginia
OL Ryan McMahon Florida State
DEFENSE
DL Marvin Austin North Carolina
DL Jason Worilds Virginia Tech
DL Vince Oghobasse Duke
DL Boo Robinson Wake Forest
LB Quan Sturdivant North Carolina
LB Bruce Carter North Carolina
LB Alex Wujciak Maryland
DB Morgan Burnett Georgia Tech
DB Chris Chancellor Clemson
DB Kendric Burney North Carolina
DB Stephen Virgil Virginia Tech
SPECIAL TEAMS
K Matt Bosher Miami
P Travis Baltz Maryland
KR/PR Travis Benjamin Miami
Preseason Offensive Player of the Year:
C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
Preseason Defensive Player of the Year:
Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina
Preseason Special Teams Player of the Year:
Matt Bosher, K, Miami
Preseason Newcomer of the Year:
Monel Harris, RB, Boston College
FINAL THOUGHTS
Whether or not this is the year the ACC breaks out and gets some respect nationally, there are too many programs on the rise to let the doldrums of the 1-9 BCS Bowl game start continue to be the modus operandi of the conference. While the Atlantic will be a lot like last year, there are four teams in the Coastal to tak every seriously, headlined by national title contender Virginia Tech and option attack Georgia Tech. Knowing the ACC, there will be some surprises along the way before the conference crown is determined. 2009 is the beginning of a new era for the ACC, an era where they will be considered amongst the elite conferences in the country. We now stand less than two weeks away from kickoff, but there's one big elephant in the room left to cover, the beloved SEC. Join us on Wednesday for the SEC Preview as we wrap up the conference previews for 2009.
Friday, August 21, 2009
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREVIEW 2009: BIG TEN
Ahh the maligned big boys of the Midwest, the Big (eleven) Ten. Whether it's Ohio State's recent BCS struggles or the entire league's problems with USC, the conference certainly has earned a poor reputation in recent seasons. It is relatively unfair to criticize a major conference for sturggling when they play up to high competition in the bowl game slate, but eventually the conference has to win some high profile games and turn things around. Ohio State will have the biggest chance to redeem the back half of the decade by beating a reloading USC team, but there will be other opportunities against Missouri and Notre Dame (multiple times) to start making amends to the country. There's no doubt the Big Ten is one of the best three football conferences in the country over the course of time, but right now they need to act like it.
THE CONTENDERS
Penn State Nittany Lions
Although Michigan was right in the national mix in 2005 and 2006, there's no question that Penn State has supplanted the Wolverines as one of the big two programs in the conference over the past 5 seasons. Although a slew of top-caliber talent is gone to greener pastures, Joe Paterno has plenty of talent recruited after winning Big Ten titles in 2005 and 2008 to reload instead of rebuild. The offense will need to hope the line play comes together behind their leader OT Dennis Landolt to protect the best players on the team, QB Daryll Clark and RB Evan Royster. The defensive secondary will be a joke, but this is the Big Ten and that should not matter. The season comes down to Ohio State in Happy Valley and a roadtrip to East Lansing in November. Win both of those and Penn State has no excuse to miss the BCS Championship this time around.
Ohio State Buckeyes
It might not have seemed like the sexy hire at the time, but the Buckeyes became the program of the decade in this conference when Jim Tressel came aboard. Tressel has been criticized for recent big game losses, but you could tell after the Fiesta Bowl loss that a new culture is here with QB Terrelle Pryor, a culture where moral victories are not enough. QB Terrelle Pryor is the real deal and getting put in the fire against USC, Penn State, and Texas last year will allow him to blossom into a darkhorse Heisman candidate. The defense will be absurdly loaded on the line, which will help with the core linebacker crew being entirely new. If the new linkebackers come together and the offensive line plays better, then there's no doubt the Buckeyes will play in Pasadena in January. The question is whether it will be the first Rose Bowl in 13 years or a third national championship in four years.
Iowa Hawkeyes
The Hawkeyes remain one of the biggest enigmas of the decade in the Big Ten. One year they split a conference title, the next they struggle to bowl eligibility. The Kirk Ferentz era has seen some highs and lows and last season was a microcosm of the decade with the 3-3 start and the 6-1 finish, including ruining Penn State's season. So while the talent is certainly in place to fill the graduation gaps and RB Shonn Greene's early departure, there's no telling whether this will be a surprise national championship contender or another 7-5 Big Ten team. While the defense will be likely the best unit in the conference, the schedule is the biggest roadblock to success. The hardest home game is Arizona, but the road slate is Wisconsin, Michigan State, Penn State, and Ohio State, which means 6-2 would likely be a success.
Michigan State Spartans
In two seasons coach Mark Dantonio has shown that the apple doesn't fall far from the sweater-vest tree. The Spartans are playing very conservative and are becoming a top-flight conference program by winning all the games against inferiro competition. As Ohio State has proven, this is enough to get you a lot of BCS attention and perhaps even a national championship attempt when things break correctly. Even though there's a new quarterback and running back to break in, the solid core of wide receivers will make any new quarterback step in smoothly. The defensive backfield is amazing and anchored by linebackers Greg Jones and Eric Gordon. The toughest road games are Wisconsin and Illinois, so if the Spartans protect the home field, a conference championship is likely in the mix sooner rather than later.
IN THE MIX
Northwestern Wildcats
The Wildcats have not really been the joke academic program of the Big Ten recently, and coach Pat Fitzgerald has the program headed back towards conference titles again like the mid-1990's. The defense will be rock solid assuming injuries don't decimate the unit, but the real questions lie with all the new skill players on offense. Still, Pat Fitzgerald has built this program to win with good line play and defense, and that's just what he has this year. The schedule is very easy in the first half, but toadtrips to Michigan State, Illinois, and Iowa will be tough. A January bowl game is the goal but there's potential to win the conference.
Illinois Fightin Illini
It's now or never for the first talented crop of recruits Ron Zook brought in to revitalize the program. There's more than enough star talent on offense with QB Juice Williams tossing to Arrelious Benn and Jared Fayson. The question mark will be on defense, where there's plenty of talent but seemingly no good plan from the coaches. This team could again disappoint like the 5-7 record in 2008 or they could shock the world like the Rose Bowl trip in 2007. The Illini will be the most entertaining team to watch in the slogging Big Ten.
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin played so many tough or close games last season, it came as a real shock when the Badgers completely disappeared in a Champs Sports Bowl shellacking that did nothing to help the conference reputation. This season the only really troubling roadtrip is to Ohio State, where the Badgers have played very well the past decade. Even though there are questions at quarterback and on both lines, this team could ride an easy schedule and the experience of last season to double-digit wins. However, Wisconsin could be shrinking back to irrelevancy and a couple more bad years will spell the doom of coach Bielema.
ALL THE REST
Minnesota Golden Gophers
One of the most entertaining battles of 2009 will be whether redshirt freshman MarQueis Gray can take the quarterback job away from Adam Weber. Between seven wins last season and a slew of new talent coming in thanks to the new outdoor stadium (and thank God or good riddance to the Metrodome), the Golden Gophers are poised to keep improving. Another brutal four game stretch faces Minnesota this season with Penn State and OSU on the road followed by Michigan State and Illinois. Survive that better than the closing stretch in 2008 and Minnesota will be bowl bound again.
Michigan Wolverines
Although most experts thought it would take a couple of years for Michigan to reset itself with athletes for Rich Rodriguez, a 3-9 season was more abysmal than the lowest expectations. Unlike the legend of the sweater vest knocking off Big Blue in Ann Arbor in his first season, RichRod made no such promises and thankfully so after a 42-7 debacle in 2008. Thankfully the Rodriguez recruiting machine is back in order now and freshman QB Tate Forcier will be a superstar in all likelihood in 2-3 years. The defense has to replace a lot of talent and things will still be slow, but look for signs of life by the end of the season and a true battle at home against the Buckeyes. Win that game and nobody will care about 2008-09 rebuilding.
Purdue Boilermakers
You know it's full-on rebuilding time when two-thirds of your best players are sophomores and freshman, but that's where Purdue finds themselves in Danny Hope's first season at the helm. There will certainly be growing pains, but the defense will be one of the better untis in the conference and should keep Purdue in a handful of games that the Boilers have no right to be in quite yet. A bowl berth is likely still way too much to wish for, but there's no doubt Purdue will not stay a bottom-feeder for too long.
Indiana Hoosiers
Whoa, that was a huge step back and a nasty fall into the cellar after the Hoosiers saw the light of day in a bowl game in 2007. Perhaps that season was just a special abberration, but Indiana seems to have enough talent to compete for a .500 record again soon. This year will be tough with a new quarterback Ben Chappell and a poor defense, but there's always potential for a surprise. Hoosier fans hope so.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
TEAM CONFERENCE OVERALL
Ohio State 7-1 10-2
Michigan State 7-1 10-2
Penn State 6-2 10-2
Iowa 5-3 9-3
Northwestern 5-3 9-3
Illinois 5-3 8-4
Wisconsin 3-5 6-6
Michigan 2-6 6-6
Minnesota 2-6 5-7
Indiana 1-7 4-8
Purdue 1-7 3-9
PRESEASON ALL-CONFERENCE
OFFENSE
QB Juice Williams Illinois
RB John Clay Wisconsin
RB Brandon Minor Michigan
WR Arrelious Benn Illinois
WR Eric Decker Minnesota
TE Garrett Graham Wisconsin
OL Bryan Bulaga Iowa
OL Justin Boren Ohio State
OL Michael Brewster Ohio State
OL Kyle Calloway Iowa
OL Al Netter Northwestern
DEFENSE
DL Corey Wootton Northwestern
DL Brandon Graham Michigan
DL Thaddeus Gibson Ohio State
DL Lawrence Wilson Ohio State
LB Navorro Bowman Penn State
LB Greg Jones Michigan State
LB Pat Angerer Iowa
DB Torri Williams Purdue
DB Chimdi Chekwa Ohio State
DB Stevie Brown Michigan
DB Donsay Hardeman Illinois
SPECIAL TEAMS
K Philip Welch wisconsin
P Zoltan Mesko Michigan
KR/PR Ray Small Ohio State
Preseason Offensive Player of the Year:
Juice Williams, QB, Illinois
Preseason Defensive Player of the Year:
Greg Jones, LB, Michigan State
Preseason Special Teams Player of the Year:
Ray Small, PR, Ohio State
Preseason Newcomer of the Year:
Tate Forcier, QB, Michigan
FINAL THOUGHTS
So will this be the year the Big Ten turns the national reputation around? With Notre Dame hitting their stride and USC reloading, there are certainly opportunities to make a statement before bowl season. Then as always, there will be a slew of January bowl games as well to show off. While Ohio State and Penn State will be favored, do not overlook the chances of the next five teams on the list, foremost Michigan State. A Rose Bowl for the Spartans would place the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions in position to win some pride against the SEC, and yes I mean those same Buckeyes. It's been a few years since a real surprise in the conference, but maybe the likes of Michigan or Wisconsin can provide that spark this year. Join us next week as we run through the ACC on Monday.
THE CONTENDERS
Penn State Nittany Lions
Although Michigan was right in the national mix in 2005 and 2006, there's no question that Penn State has supplanted the Wolverines as one of the big two programs in the conference over the past 5 seasons. Although a slew of top-caliber talent is gone to greener pastures, Joe Paterno has plenty of talent recruited after winning Big Ten titles in 2005 and 2008 to reload instead of rebuild. The offense will need to hope the line play comes together behind their leader OT Dennis Landolt to protect the best players on the team, QB Daryll Clark and RB Evan Royster. The defensive secondary will be a joke, but this is the Big Ten and that should not matter. The season comes down to Ohio State in Happy Valley and a roadtrip to East Lansing in November. Win both of those and Penn State has no excuse to miss the BCS Championship this time around.
Ohio State Buckeyes
It might not have seemed like the sexy hire at the time, but the Buckeyes became the program of the decade in this conference when Jim Tressel came aboard. Tressel has been criticized for recent big game losses, but you could tell after the Fiesta Bowl loss that a new culture is here with QB Terrelle Pryor, a culture where moral victories are not enough. QB Terrelle Pryor is the real deal and getting put in the fire against USC, Penn State, and Texas last year will allow him to blossom into a darkhorse Heisman candidate. The defense will be absurdly loaded on the line, which will help with the core linebacker crew being entirely new. If the new linkebackers come together and the offensive line plays better, then there's no doubt the Buckeyes will play in Pasadena in January. The question is whether it will be the first Rose Bowl in 13 years or a third national championship in four years.
Iowa Hawkeyes
The Hawkeyes remain one of the biggest enigmas of the decade in the Big Ten. One year they split a conference title, the next they struggle to bowl eligibility. The Kirk Ferentz era has seen some highs and lows and last season was a microcosm of the decade with the 3-3 start and the 6-1 finish, including ruining Penn State's season. So while the talent is certainly in place to fill the graduation gaps and RB Shonn Greene's early departure, there's no telling whether this will be a surprise national championship contender or another 7-5 Big Ten team. While the defense will be likely the best unit in the conference, the schedule is the biggest roadblock to success. The hardest home game is Arizona, but the road slate is Wisconsin, Michigan State, Penn State, and Ohio State, which means 6-2 would likely be a success.
Michigan State Spartans
In two seasons coach Mark Dantonio has shown that the apple doesn't fall far from the sweater-vest tree. The Spartans are playing very conservative and are becoming a top-flight conference program by winning all the games against inferiro competition. As Ohio State has proven, this is enough to get you a lot of BCS attention and perhaps even a national championship attempt when things break correctly. Even though there's a new quarterback and running back to break in, the solid core of wide receivers will make any new quarterback step in smoothly. The defensive backfield is amazing and anchored by linebackers Greg Jones and Eric Gordon. The toughest road games are Wisconsin and Illinois, so if the Spartans protect the home field, a conference championship is likely in the mix sooner rather than later.
IN THE MIX
Northwestern Wildcats
The Wildcats have not really been the joke academic program of the Big Ten recently, and coach Pat Fitzgerald has the program headed back towards conference titles again like the mid-1990's. The defense will be rock solid assuming injuries don't decimate the unit, but the real questions lie with all the new skill players on offense. Still, Pat Fitzgerald has built this program to win with good line play and defense, and that's just what he has this year. The schedule is very easy in the first half, but toadtrips to Michigan State, Illinois, and Iowa will be tough. A January bowl game is the goal but there's potential to win the conference.
Illinois Fightin Illini
It's now or never for the first talented crop of recruits Ron Zook brought in to revitalize the program. There's more than enough star talent on offense with QB Juice Williams tossing to Arrelious Benn and Jared Fayson. The question mark will be on defense, where there's plenty of talent but seemingly no good plan from the coaches. This team could again disappoint like the 5-7 record in 2008 or they could shock the world like the Rose Bowl trip in 2007. The Illini will be the most entertaining team to watch in the slogging Big Ten.
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin played so many tough or close games last season, it came as a real shock when the Badgers completely disappeared in a Champs Sports Bowl shellacking that did nothing to help the conference reputation. This season the only really troubling roadtrip is to Ohio State, where the Badgers have played very well the past decade. Even though there are questions at quarterback and on both lines, this team could ride an easy schedule and the experience of last season to double-digit wins. However, Wisconsin could be shrinking back to irrelevancy and a couple more bad years will spell the doom of coach Bielema.
ALL THE REST
Minnesota Golden Gophers
One of the most entertaining battles of 2009 will be whether redshirt freshman MarQueis Gray can take the quarterback job away from Adam Weber. Between seven wins last season and a slew of new talent coming in thanks to the new outdoor stadium (and thank God or good riddance to the Metrodome), the Golden Gophers are poised to keep improving. Another brutal four game stretch faces Minnesota this season with Penn State and OSU on the road followed by Michigan State and Illinois. Survive that better than the closing stretch in 2008 and Minnesota will be bowl bound again.
Michigan Wolverines
Although most experts thought it would take a couple of years for Michigan to reset itself with athletes for Rich Rodriguez, a 3-9 season was more abysmal than the lowest expectations. Unlike the legend of the sweater vest knocking off Big Blue in Ann Arbor in his first season, RichRod made no such promises and thankfully so after a 42-7 debacle in 2008. Thankfully the Rodriguez recruiting machine is back in order now and freshman QB Tate Forcier will be a superstar in all likelihood in 2-3 years. The defense has to replace a lot of talent and things will still be slow, but look for signs of life by the end of the season and a true battle at home against the Buckeyes. Win that game and nobody will care about 2008-09 rebuilding.
Purdue Boilermakers
You know it's full-on rebuilding time when two-thirds of your best players are sophomores and freshman, but that's where Purdue finds themselves in Danny Hope's first season at the helm. There will certainly be growing pains, but the defense will be one of the better untis in the conference and should keep Purdue in a handful of games that the Boilers have no right to be in quite yet. A bowl berth is likely still way too much to wish for, but there's no doubt Purdue will not stay a bottom-feeder for too long.
Indiana Hoosiers
Whoa, that was a huge step back and a nasty fall into the cellar after the Hoosiers saw the light of day in a bowl game in 2007. Perhaps that season was just a special abberration, but Indiana seems to have enough talent to compete for a .500 record again soon. This year will be tough with a new quarterback Ben Chappell and a poor defense, but there's always potential for a surprise. Hoosier fans hope so.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
TEAM CONFERENCE OVERALL
Ohio State 7-1 10-2
Michigan State 7-1 10-2
Penn State 6-2 10-2
Iowa 5-3 9-3
Northwestern 5-3 9-3
Illinois 5-3 8-4
Wisconsin 3-5 6-6
Michigan 2-6 6-6
Minnesota 2-6 5-7
Indiana 1-7 4-8
Purdue 1-7 3-9
PRESEASON ALL-CONFERENCE
OFFENSE
QB Juice Williams Illinois
RB John Clay Wisconsin
RB Brandon Minor Michigan
WR Arrelious Benn Illinois
WR Eric Decker Minnesota
TE Garrett Graham Wisconsin
OL Bryan Bulaga Iowa
OL Justin Boren Ohio State
OL Michael Brewster Ohio State
OL Kyle Calloway Iowa
OL Al Netter Northwestern
DEFENSE
DL Corey Wootton Northwestern
DL Brandon Graham Michigan
DL Thaddeus Gibson Ohio State
DL Lawrence Wilson Ohio State
LB Navorro Bowman Penn State
LB Greg Jones Michigan State
LB Pat Angerer Iowa
DB Torri Williams Purdue
DB Chimdi Chekwa Ohio State
DB Stevie Brown Michigan
DB Donsay Hardeman Illinois
SPECIAL TEAMS
K Philip Welch wisconsin
P Zoltan Mesko Michigan
KR/PR Ray Small Ohio State
Preseason Offensive Player of the Year:
Juice Williams, QB, Illinois
Preseason Defensive Player of the Year:
Greg Jones, LB, Michigan State
Preseason Special Teams Player of the Year:
Ray Small, PR, Ohio State
Preseason Newcomer of the Year:
Tate Forcier, QB, Michigan
FINAL THOUGHTS
So will this be the year the Big Ten turns the national reputation around? With Notre Dame hitting their stride and USC reloading, there are certainly opportunities to make a statement before bowl season. Then as always, there will be a slew of January bowl games as well to show off. While Ohio State and Penn State will be favored, do not overlook the chances of the next five teams on the list, foremost Michigan State. A Rose Bowl for the Spartans would place the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions in position to win some pride against the SEC, and yes I mean those same Buckeyes. It's been a few years since a real surprise in the conference, but maybe the likes of Michigan or Wisconsin can provide that spark this year. Join us next week as we run through the ACC on Monday.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREVIEW 2009: BIG 12
The Big XII Conference was definitely the most fun conference to watch week-in and week-out in 2008. Not only does the Big XII have the most compelling rivalry at the elite level of college football, but tons of star power and deep talent pools in even the weaker teams makes for one of the best conferences in college football. Oklahoma is again the defending champion, but it did not come without controvery as Texas and Texas Tech also finished 7-1 in the conference. Texas will be looking to pay Oklahoma back for 2008, while Oklahoma State and Texas Tech will be looking to finally take the two big boys down. Even the North division has made the conference championship worth watching, as Kansas, Nebraska, and Missouri lead the charge. One thing's for sure: all eyes will be on this conference to find a possible challenger to Florida's dominance.
THE CONTENDERS
Oklahoma Sooners
Most teams who lose national championship games take such a hit on the chin that even with a bunch of returning talent, the next season is never quite as good. Fortunately for Sooner fans, this OU team could be the team that breaks that mold. The handful of questions are only minor after graduations, and the most important offensive player came back for another go in Heisman QB Sam Bradford. The defense will be rock solid with the best front seven in the country. The schedule is absolutely brutal but that will probably not stop the Sooners.
Texas Longhorns
If Sam Bradford coming back to Oklahoma was a huge boon, Colt McCoy coming back for his senior season is a whole other level of awesome for Longhorn fans. McCoy arguably has been the best quarterback in the nation the past two seasons, and yet has had to watch as Tim Tebow and then Bradford took away Heismans and national title chances. Look for WR Jordan Shipley to be the primary target, at least as good as the Young-Sweed hookup from 4 seasons ago. The defense is good but needs to make more big plays and turnovers happen in the most important games. October is brutal with Oklahoma in Dallas followed by Missouri and Oklahoma State on the road: win two of these and Texas could be in the BCS championship even with a loss.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
After watching Lubbock enjoy the upper echelon of college football last season with Texas and Oklahoma, the fans in Stillwater think it's their turn after going 5-3 and only losing to the big three last season. Oklahoma State has all the right pieces converging this season for what could be a special year or just another disappointment. The schedule is rough but plays nicely as it can with Georgia, Missouri, Texas, and Texas Tech coming to OSU and none of these on consecutive weekends. The offense will again be prolific with QB Zac Robinson throwing to Dez Bryant and a stable of up and coming receivers. The defense has great linebackers, but OSU needs to get better line play on both sides of the ball if they expect to really win this conference.
Kansas Jayhawks
If you could flip a three-sided coin to determine the North division favorite, you nmay have a better sense than anyone who will come out of this crazy division. Nevertheless, Kansas brings back the most stars highlighted by QB Todd Reesing and his receiver duo Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier. The best part about the Jayhawks should be the strong line play on both sides of the ball, and while 12-1 will not happen again with the rough schedule including Tech, OU, and Texas, the Jayhawks should win all games against the North division. Look for Kansas to build tons of momentum and a likely 6-0 start heading into the Oklahoma game.
IN THE MIX
Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Red Raiders finally broke through last season and made the nation pay attention by beating Texas and grabbing number 1 in the country before losing to Oklahoma and being forced to watch the bigger name programs they tied with go to the BCS. While most called Texas Tech overrated when they lost to Ole Miss, that was a tough bowl game matchup and Texas Tech is much easier to play with extra time to prepare. Look for coach Mike Leach to plug in new talent at the offensive skill positions and not miss much of a beat on that side of the ball. The real problem will be the defense, who will be hard pressed to stop the wide open passing attacks in the conference.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Watch carefully college football fans, as Bo Pelini is quickly restoring more glory days for the storied Nebraska Cornhuskers. Nabbing ten wins with a prolific offense was nice, but now Pelini has started to get his kind of guys in to revamp the defense into a juggernaut. Make no mistake about it, a strong defense will run roughshod over this league and will give the Big XII an even mroe legitimate national title threat if Nebraska stays on the course. Look for the defensive line to be the all-stars of the 2009 season, forcing pressure and lots of mistakes that will lessen the load for a decent offense. The Cornhuskers could steal the divison with a win at Kansas.
Missouri Tigers
Now the rubber hits the road for the Missouri Tigers, as we will find out if Missouri is a legitimate perennial contender or just a disappearing fad. So much talent is gone to graduation, but look for the new guys stepping in to be better than most expect, including QB Blaine Gabbert. The conference slate starts tough with Nebraska, OSU, and Texas in consecutive weeks, but then Missouri could get on a roll that doesn't stop until bowl season. The Tigers will certainly remain in the mix for their third division title in a row.
Colorado Buffaloes
For a team that has struggled to four wins a season during coach Dan Hawkins's tenure, it seems strange to be considering Colorado as a possible division winner. Yet the attitude in Boulder is just that with Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri all not dominant in 2009. The offense should be better than most at controlling the pace of the game with star RB Darrell Scott, but the defense needs some help from what appeared to be quality recruits 2 and 3 years ago. If the Buffaloes take care of the other big three North teams at home, then losing games at Texas and OSU could still lead to a division crown.
ALL THE REST
Texas A&M Aggies
On the bright side, Mike Sherman played a lot of young guys last season and is bringing in talent on par with the other Big XII South programs for the first time in a decade. On the grim side, the rebuild will take until at least 2011 to be competitive in the roughest division in college football. There will be more growth but all the Aggies can hope for is a bowl berth.
Baylor Bears
Baylor is finally getting some good recruits in the Texas playing field and would be right in the mix for a North division title in 2009. Unfortunately the Bears are in the South, so this year should only show more 4-6 win competitiveness. Look for speedster QB Rober Griffin to show off his arm more this year, perhaps becoming the next big thing in the conference.
Kansas State Wildcats
Bill Snyder is back in Manhattan after two years away from the game, but the Wildcats are in even worse shape than when he left. It's hard to imagine that the rebuilding program will go easily this late into a coach's career, but perhaps in the North division a few wins can be stolen. If Kansas State makes a bowl game the next couple of seasons, then maybe they will get enough momentum to go back to the conference championship game and try their luck.
Iowa State Cyclones
Oh boy, the Gene Chizik years somehow took this Cyclone program further into the ground. Now Iowa State has to look forward to a long process of coming out of the cellar before ever competing for their first division title. The Cyclones have a defense that needs more playmakers and a brand new offense coming in with the new coaching staff. All we can say is good luck ISU fans.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
TEAM CONFERENCE OVERALL
SOUTH
Oklahoma 7-1 11-1
Oklahoma State 7-1 10-2
Texas 6-2 10-2
Texas Tech 4-4 8-4
Baylor 2-6 5-7
Texas A&M 2-6 5-7
NORTH
Kansas 6-2 10-2
Nebraska 5-3 8-4
Missouri 4-4 7-5
Colorado 4-4 7-5
Kansas State 1-7 4-8
Iowa State 0-8 2-10
PRESEASON ALL-CONFERENCE
OFFENSE
QB Colt McCoy Texas
RB Darrell Scott Colorado
RB Derrick Washington Missouri
WR Dez Bryant Oklahoma State
WR Dezmon Briscoe Kansas
TE Mike McNeill Nebraska
OL Kurtis Gregory Missouri
OL Adam Ulatoski Texas
OL Trent Williams Oklahoma
OL Dan Hoch Missouri
OL Kyle Hixx Texas
DEFENSE
DL Ndamukong Suh Nebraska
DL Jeremy Beal Oklahoma
DL Gerald McCoy Oklahoma
DL Auston English Oklahoma
LB Andre Sexton Oklahoma State
LB Joe Pawelek Baylor
LB Sean Witherspoon Missouri
DB Dominique Franks Oklahoma
DB Darrell Stuckey Kansas
DB Earl Thomas Texas
DB Larry Asante Nebraska
SPECIAL TEAMS
K Alex Henrey Nebraska
P Alonso Rojas Kansas
KR/PR Dez Bryant Oklahoma State
Preseason Offensive Player of the Year:
Colt McCoy, QB, Texas
Preseason Defensive Player of the Year:
Jeremy Beal, DL, Oklahoma
Preseason Special Teams Player of the Year:
Dez Bryant, KR/PR, Oklahoma State
Preseason Newcomer of the Year:
Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
FINAL THOUGHTS
So last season was crazy in the South with three 7-1 teams and two years ago the Kansas and Missouri showdown was the game of the year. No matter what the storyline becomes in 2009, you know it will be entertaining. The best question going into the future is whether the Baylor and Colorado programs can become competitive and whether Nebraska will own the North again. However, right now both divisions are fairly wide open. We could see Oklahoma-Missouir part two, but it's just as likely we'll see Kansas-Oklahoma State in December. Join us Friday as we cap the week with the Big Ten.
THE CONTENDERS
Oklahoma Sooners
Most teams who lose national championship games take such a hit on the chin that even with a bunch of returning talent, the next season is never quite as good. Fortunately for Sooner fans, this OU team could be the team that breaks that mold. The handful of questions are only minor after graduations, and the most important offensive player came back for another go in Heisman QB Sam Bradford. The defense will be rock solid with the best front seven in the country. The schedule is absolutely brutal but that will probably not stop the Sooners.
Texas Longhorns
If Sam Bradford coming back to Oklahoma was a huge boon, Colt McCoy coming back for his senior season is a whole other level of awesome for Longhorn fans. McCoy arguably has been the best quarterback in the nation the past two seasons, and yet has had to watch as Tim Tebow and then Bradford took away Heismans and national title chances. Look for WR Jordan Shipley to be the primary target, at least as good as the Young-Sweed hookup from 4 seasons ago. The defense is good but needs to make more big plays and turnovers happen in the most important games. October is brutal with Oklahoma in Dallas followed by Missouri and Oklahoma State on the road: win two of these and Texas could be in the BCS championship even with a loss.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
After watching Lubbock enjoy the upper echelon of college football last season with Texas and Oklahoma, the fans in Stillwater think it's their turn after going 5-3 and only losing to the big three last season. Oklahoma State has all the right pieces converging this season for what could be a special year or just another disappointment. The schedule is rough but plays nicely as it can with Georgia, Missouri, Texas, and Texas Tech coming to OSU and none of these on consecutive weekends. The offense will again be prolific with QB Zac Robinson throwing to Dez Bryant and a stable of up and coming receivers. The defense has great linebackers, but OSU needs to get better line play on both sides of the ball if they expect to really win this conference.
Kansas Jayhawks
If you could flip a three-sided coin to determine the North division favorite, you nmay have a better sense than anyone who will come out of this crazy division. Nevertheless, Kansas brings back the most stars highlighted by QB Todd Reesing and his receiver duo Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier. The best part about the Jayhawks should be the strong line play on both sides of the ball, and while 12-1 will not happen again with the rough schedule including Tech, OU, and Texas, the Jayhawks should win all games against the North division. Look for Kansas to build tons of momentum and a likely 6-0 start heading into the Oklahoma game.
IN THE MIX
Texas Tech Red Raiders
The Red Raiders finally broke through last season and made the nation pay attention by beating Texas and grabbing number 1 in the country before losing to Oklahoma and being forced to watch the bigger name programs they tied with go to the BCS. While most called Texas Tech overrated when they lost to Ole Miss, that was a tough bowl game matchup and Texas Tech is much easier to play with extra time to prepare. Look for coach Mike Leach to plug in new talent at the offensive skill positions and not miss much of a beat on that side of the ball. The real problem will be the defense, who will be hard pressed to stop the wide open passing attacks in the conference.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Watch carefully college football fans, as Bo Pelini is quickly restoring more glory days for the storied Nebraska Cornhuskers. Nabbing ten wins with a prolific offense was nice, but now Pelini has started to get his kind of guys in to revamp the defense into a juggernaut. Make no mistake about it, a strong defense will run roughshod over this league and will give the Big XII an even mroe legitimate national title threat if Nebraska stays on the course. Look for the defensive line to be the all-stars of the 2009 season, forcing pressure and lots of mistakes that will lessen the load for a decent offense. The Cornhuskers could steal the divison with a win at Kansas.
Missouri Tigers
Now the rubber hits the road for the Missouri Tigers, as we will find out if Missouri is a legitimate perennial contender or just a disappearing fad. So much talent is gone to graduation, but look for the new guys stepping in to be better than most expect, including QB Blaine Gabbert. The conference slate starts tough with Nebraska, OSU, and Texas in consecutive weeks, but then Missouri could get on a roll that doesn't stop until bowl season. The Tigers will certainly remain in the mix for their third division title in a row.
Colorado Buffaloes
For a team that has struggled to four wins a season during coach Dan Hawkins's tenure, it seems strange to be considering Colorado as a possible division winner. Yet the attitude in Boulder is just that with Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri all not dominant in 2009. The offense should be better than most at controlling the pace of the game with star RB Darrell Scott, but the defense needs some help from what appeared to be quality recruits 2 and 3 years ago. If the Buffaloes take care of the other big three North teams at home, then losing games at Texas and OSU could still lead to a division crown.
ALL THE REST
Texas A&M Aggies
On the bright side, Mike Sherman played a lot of young guys last season and is bringing in talent on par with the other Big XII South programs for the first time in a decade. On the grim side, the rebuild will take until at least 2011 to be competitive in the roughest division in college football. There will be more growth but all the Aggies can hope for is a bowl berth.
Baylor Bears
Baylor is finally getting some good recruits in the Texas playing field and would be right in the mix for a North division title in 2009. Unfortunately the Bears are in the South, so this year should only show more 4-6 win competitiveness. Look for speedster QB Rober Griffin to show off his arm more this year, perhaps becoming the next big thing in the conference.
Kansas State Wildcats
Bill Snyder is back in Manhattan after two years away from the game, but the Wildcats are in even worse shape than when he left. It's hard to imagine that the rebuilding program will go easily this late into a coach's career, but perhaps in the North division a few wins can be stolen. If Kansas State makes a bowl game the next couple of seasons, then maybe they will get enough momentum to go back to the conference championship game and try their luck.
Iowa State Cyclones
Oh boy, the Gene Chizik years somehow took this Cyclone program further into the ground. Now Iowa State has to look forward to a long process of coming out of the cellar before ever competing for their first division title. The Cyclones have a defense that needs more playmakers and a brand new offense coming in with the new coaching staff. All we can say is good luck ISU fans.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
TEAM CONFERENCE OVERALL
SOUTH
Oklahoma 7-1 11-1
Oklahoma State 7-1 10-2
Texas 6-2 10-2
Texas Tech 4-4 8-4
Baylor 2-6 5-7
Texas A&M 2-6 5-7
NORTH
Kansas 6-2 10-2
Nebraska 5-3 8-4
Missouri 4-4 7-5
Colorado 4-4 7-5
Kansas State 1-7 4-8
Iowa State 0-8 2-10
PRESEASON ALL-CONFERENCE
OFFENSE
QB Colt McCoy Texas
RB Darrell Scott Colorado
RB Derrick Washington Missouri
WR Dez Bryant Oklahoma State
WR Dezmon Briscoe Kansas
TE Mike McNeill Nebraska
OL Kurtis Gregory Missouri
OL Adam Ulatoski Texas
OL Trent Williams Oklahoma
OL Dan Hoch Missouri
OL Kyle Hixx Texas
DEFENSE
DL Ndamukong Suh Nebraska
DL Jeremy Beal Oklahoma
DL Gerald McCoy Oklahoma
DL Auston English Oklahoma
LB Andre Sexton Oklahoma State
LB Joe Pawelek Baylor
LB Sean Witherspoon Missouri
DB Dominique Franks Oklahoma
DB Darrell Stuckey Kansas
DB Earl Thomas Texas
DB Larry Asante Nebraska
SPECIAL TEAMS
K Alex Henrey Nebraska
P Alonso Rojas Kansas
KR/PR Dez Bryant Oklahoma State
Preseason Offensive Player of the Year:
Colt McCoy, QB, Texas
Preseason Defensive Player of the Year:
Jeremy Beal, DL, Oklahoma
Preseason Special Teams Player of the Year:
Dez Bryant, KR/PR, Oklahoma State
Preseason Newcomer of the Year:
Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri
FINAL THOUGHTS
So last season was crazy in the South with three 7-1 teams and two years ago the Kansas and Missouri showdown was the game of the year. No matter what the storyline becomes in 2009, you know it will be entertaining. The best question going into the future is whether the Baylor and Colorado programs can become competitive and whether Nebraska will own the North again. However, right now both divisions are fairly wide open. We could see Oklahoma-Missouir part two, but it's just as likely we'll see Kansas-Oklahoma State in December. Join us Friday as we cap the week with the Big Ten.
Monday, August 17, 2009
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREVIEW 2009: WAC, MWC, CUSA
The WAC has been watching as a dominant dynasty Boise State has walked all over the conference this decade. However, Boise State needs everyone else to get better or else they will continue to be passed up like 2008, where an undefeated record and a win on the road at Oregon was not enough apparently to make the BCS. Still, the lower tier of programs have some fresh start coaches and appear to be headed in a better direction, and the contenders to Boise State actually have a chance to make this a legitimate race. Conference USA has struggled to find a national contender presence, and this is what they need now that the league is very good across the board. As for the Mountain West, the time is now to continue showing off at least the three regular ranked contenders. If these three conferences want to bash down the doors of the BCS, each has to improve considerably on these aspects of top contenders and overall quality to be successful in 3-4 years.
WAC
THE CONTENDERS
Boise State Broncos
The most successful program of the decade is actually not the USC Trojans but these Boise State Broncos. Of course the competition in the WAC is a bit lighter, but Boise State continues to prove themselves on the big stage, and being passed over by the BCS was a real shame in 2008. Coach Petersen has a fair amount of talent coming into Boise, but there are a lot of holes to fill this year that the usual undefeated season might be asking too much. The offensive line needs completely rebuilt, which will not help QB Kellen Moore, who has little speed to escape a rush. The defensive backfield will be solid and should keep the Broncos in the tougher games on the schedule. The schedule is the toughest part, with a home game against Oregon to start off when Boise State needs time to develop their talent. The BCS remains the goal though.
Nevada Wolfpack
It is very rare for a coach to stay at a program like Nevada for a quarter-century, but Chris Ault has done just that. The Wolfpack almost got the big dog down last year to ruin Boise State's undefeated season, and there's no reason this team cannot compete again in 2009. the defense is nothing special, but the line will probably continue to stop most rushing attacks in conference. The offense is what has fans excited with dual-threat QB Colin Kaepernick being a perfect fit for the pistol offense. As long as Nevada can get enough of a running game going to rest the defense and prevent shootouts, there is a good chance the game in Boise will be for a conference championship. Look for early games at Notre Dame and against Missouri to be chances at national recognition for a non-Boise WAC program.
Louisiana Tech
Now this should be a fun team to watch in the 2009 WAC title chase. For the first time in a few years, Boise State will have more than one primary threat to their title defense thanks to Tech joining the chase. The Bulldogs return every single starting lineman on both sides of the ball, and these lines were the primary pushing force behind a solid eight win campaign last year. Tech will have their work cut out for them on the road, with games at Auburn, Nevada, LSU, and Fresno State. Despite the rough schedule, Tech has enough talent on offense such as WR Philip Livas and RB Daniel Porter to make up for the weak defensive backfield. Tech could buckle under the schedule or they could rise to the occasion, and 8-4 with this schedule will be a massive success for this program. a WAC title would be a bigger coup.
ALL THE REST
San Jose State was decimated by injuries and struggled with inexperience in 2008 to close the deal for a bowl berth, but the Spartans now have more than they've had in five seasons. Considering USC will be looking ahead to the Ohio State roadtrip, look for San Jose State to make a huge statement by sticking with USC into the second half and taking confidence from that performance to a successful season. Fresno State continues to fail to lve up to potential, and this season is critical for Pat Hill to keep his job at the helm. If Fresno State is to make any noise, look for three wins in September against a tough slate including Wisconsin and Cincinnati on the road and Boise State at home. Hawaii should squeak into the middle class of the conference based on experience alone, but there's still a lot of rebuilding to do in the Pacific. Still, the Warriors are incredibly tough at home and could surprise LTU or Boise State out there.
The bottom three in the conference are in dire straits for 2009. On the bright side, New Mexico State and Utah State each welcome in quality new coaches who will be looking to turn these programs around quickly if they want to advance in their coaching careers. At least the new coaches there can bring a new attitude, while Idaho has been as bad in the decade as Boise State has been good. There's really no hope for the Vandals to come out of it anytime soon, so do not expect much from this team in 2009.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
TEAM CONFERENCE OVERALL
Boise State 7-1 10-2
Nevada 7-1 9-3
Louisiana Tech 7-1 8-4
Fresno State 4-4 6-6
Hawaii 4-4 6-6
san Jose State 4-4 5-7
New Mexico State 2-6 3-9
Utah State 1-7 2-10
Idaho 0-8 0-12
PRESEASON ALL-CONFERENCE
OFFENSE
QB Colin Kaepernick Nevada
RB Ryan Matthews Fresno State
RB Vai Taua Nevada
WR Philip Livas Louisiana Tech
WR Kevin Jurovich San Jose State
TE Kyle Efaw Boise State
OL Mike Gallett Nevada
OL Rob McGill Louisiana Tech
OL John Estes Hawaii
OL Lon Roberts Louisiana Tech
OL Andrew Jackson Fresno State
DEFENSE
DL Ryan Winterswyk Boise State
DL Kevin Basped Nevada
DL D'Anthony Smith Louisiana Tech
DL John Fonoti Hawaii
LB Ben Jacobs Fresno State
LB Brashton Satele Hawaii
LB Justin Cole San Jose State
DB Kyle Wilson Boise State
DB Jeron Johnson Boise State
DB Deon Young Louisiana Tech
DB Davon House New Mexico State
SPECIAL TEAMS
K Kyle Brotzman Boise State
P Robert Malone Fresno State
KR/PR Philip Livas Louisiana Tech
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MOUNTAIN WEST
THE CONTENDERS
BYU Cougars
BYU was poised for a run to the BCS in 2008, yet faltering in games at TCU and Utah forced the Cougars to watch the other two perennial powers in the conference enjoy high-profile bowl games. This season there are a handful of holes to fill on the offensive line and in the defensive secondary, but overall, this season has as much promise as 2008. In fact, getting three of the toughest games of the season in Provo could make all the difference this time around. QB Max Hall comes back to lead the prolific passing offense, which will be sorely tested in a neutral-site opener against Oklahoma. If the Cougars could pull that upset, there's nothing that would stop the Cougars from the national championship chance the conference so desperately wants. The key to success this season will be developing the raw talent in the defensive backfield to be better against opposing passing games. If this happens, a conference title will be in the works.
TCU Horned Frogs
The Horned Frogs just keep on trucking as the best program in the MWC, despite being outshined by Utah's two BCS appearances and wins and BYU's history. Although coach Gary Patterson has more holes to fill this year than the other two conference powers, the program is better at reloading because of better recruiting than their competitors. The defense will be the star feature as usual, led by all-american lineman Jerry Hughes and cornerbacks Rafael Priest and Nick Sanders. While TCU may look like a program set for greatness in 2010, there are a lot of seniors who do not want to lose this opportunity at the BCS. The schedule is fairly forgiving, and the home game against BYU could be for all the conference and BCS marbles if TCU survives Virginia and Clemson in September. Look for a surprising season out of the Horned Frogs and perhaps even an overdue BCS appearance.
Utah Utes
Utah needed a miracle missed kick from TCU and a drive down the field for the ages to make the BCS, but the Utes again made the most of the opportunity by throttling Alabama for their second straight BCS win. Utah is a program that really seems to come together for a big season every three or four years, and coach Wittingham has a lot of holes to fill to rebuild the Utes back to the BCS. Nevertheless, the early reports of Utah's demise are too far-fetched, as this team has more than enough returning experience to stay competitive. If Utah can figure out whether Terrance Cain or Corbin Louks is better-suited to running the offense before the conference opener in October at Colorado State, Utah could be a factor in the race in late November.
ALL THE REST
Air Force is in the sweet spot for a service academy school, being competitive every year in a legitimately tough conference. If the Falcons improve on defense, the offense is more than strong enough to talk about improving to double-digit wins and giving the big three a true run for their money in 2009. Colorado State surprised everyone with seven wins and a bowl appearance last year, but there's still a lot of growth and recruiting to be done on the defensive side to make the Rams join the conference elite. Look for the veteran offensive line to drive Colorado State through a few successful shootouts in conference play to return to a bowl game. New Mexico may be a couple of years and recruiting classes away from true competitiveness, but new coach Mike Locksley turned around Illinois and he will turn around NMU. Look for the Lobos to steal a game or two that they really should not with a defense full of effort-players. There's potential for this group to make their way into the conference elite in the next three years, which would strengthen the case for the MWC to become a full-fledged BCS member.
The bottom third of the conference still has a lot of work to do, but there are signs of hope. San Diego State continues to struggle despite having California recruiting grounds and good coaching staffs. However, look for Brady Hoke, who turned around Ball State last year, to take San Diego State to similar places in a few seasons. UNLV finally broke through to five wins last year, but the Rebels were still statistically among the worst in the conference in most categories. Look for another season towards four or five wins, but Mike Sanford may be wearing out his welcome if the program does not continue some upward momentum from 2008. Wyoming also welcomes a new coaching staff and a spread offense attack which will hopefully turn around the most moribund of college football offenses the past few years. Look for the Cowboys to surprise a team or two, but nothing more at this point.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
TEAM CONFERENCE OVERALL
TCU 7-1 11-1
BYU 7-1 10-2
Utah 6-2 9-3
Air Force 4-4 7-5
Colorado State 4-4 6-6
New Mexico 3-5 5-7
UNLV 2-6 3-9
San Diego State 2-6 5-7
Wyoming 1-7 2-10
PRESEASON ALL-CONFERENCE
OFFENSE
QB Max Hall BYU
RB Harvey Unga BYU
RB Asher Clark Air Force
WR Ryan Wolfe UNLV
WR Rashaun Greer Colorado State
TE Dennis Pitta BYU
OL Zane Beadles Utah
OL Matt Reynolds BYU
OL Erik Cook New Mexico
OL Zane Taylor Utah
OL Nick Charles Air Force
DEFENSE
DL Jerry Hughes TCU
DL Jan Jorgensen BYU
DL John Fletcher Wyoming
DL Koa Misi Utah
LB Stevenson Sylvester Utah
LB Mike Wright Utah
LB Daryl Washington TCU
DB Chris Thomas Air Force
DB Rafael Priest TCU
DB Tashaun Gipson Wyoming
DB Nick Sanders TCU
SPECIAL TEAMS
K Ross Evans TCU
P Ian Clark New Mexico
KR/PR David Reed Utah
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CONFERENCE USA
THE CONTENDERS
East Carolina Pirates
Last year around this time I made the bold prediction that East Carolina would shock the world, go undefeated, and make the BCS. Well after upsets against West Virginia and Virginia Tech that theory looked good, but it fell apart in three straight losses. However, ECU is the class of the conference and recovered for a conference championship. The best news for Pirates fans is that ECU should be even better this year. QB Patrick Pinkney will have tons of talent on the line to protect him and at wideout to throw to, so look for an more wide open offense. The defense has quality guys all over, but the corps are very thin and could fall apart if any injuries happen. Getting East division rivals Southern Miss and UCF at home this season should make the road to the conference championship smooth.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Coach Larry Fedora brought a little bit of Oklahoma State with him and it started to pay off in five straight wins to end the 2008 season. Look for the offense to continue to exploit the weak defenses of the conference with the spread attack, led by QB Austin Davis and WR DeAndre Brown. On the defensive front, the Golden Eagles have a lot of growing to do, yet should still be one of the better units in the league. If the defense steps up like they did in the back half of 2008, there's no doubt that Southern Miss can roll into East Carolina on the final week of the season and steal the division title. Bowl eligibility should be a no-brainer for this team though.
Houston Cougars
Like Southern Miss, Houston came together at the back half of 2008 to become a top contender coming into this season. All the underclassmen young guns on offense return for another season, led by superstar-in-the-making QB Case Keenum and RB Bryce Beall. Although the Cougars were one of the most prolific offenses in the country last season, the one thing that could hold them back is rebuilding the offensive line. On the defense, the line also needs reworking to keep a solid pass rush going. Watch for a lot of shootouts with this talented offense and the mediocre defense, but Houston should survive most shootouts this campaign. If Houston steals one of the September games against Oklahoma State or Texas Tech, watch out for some serious national attention.
Tulsa Hurricane
Despite being a heavy favorite in the past two conference championship games, Tulsa has fallen short each time to better rushing attacks and defenses. Coach Todd Graham wants to finally take the next step, but the defense will have to improve considerably over the past efforts. If the best defense is a good offense, then Tulsa has that down pat with a spread offense that has befuddled the weak defenses in Conference USA. Although a new quarterback will take the reins, the offensive line and slew of wide receivers will cover up any weaknesses on that side of the ball. If the defensive linemen can create a legitimate pass rush this season, the Hurricane will have a chance to knock off Houston at home in November and go on to a third consecutive conference championship game.
ALL THE REST
Marshall has been a huge underachiever in the Mark Snyder era, but 2009 should be the year the Thundering Herd finally puts together a bowl berth and a decent season. Expect Marshall to continue to be one of the better ball-control offenses as long as the talented runners get some hint of a threat from the passing game. It may seem like a broken record already, but Memphis is another team that will compete for a division title if the defense shows any semblence of improvement. At least for Memphis, they have brought in tons of transfer talent from other schools, nabbing 7 fairly good players who will be starters for Memphis. UAB will be better after returning all starters on offense, but the defense is in shambles and needs to replace people on top of that. The Blazers have tough road games out of conference, so bowl eligibility might be a pipe dream this year.
Central Florida always seems to be on a two-yeasr cycle of terrible and good, following the 2007 conference championship with only four wins last year. The defense will be one of the stronger units in the league as long as the new backfield comes together quickly. UCF should be back to bowling in 2009. Rice has made great strides the past two years and stunned the world with 10 wins in 2008, but a new quarterback and a rebuilt offense will likely drop the Owls back to earth this year. The brutal schedule will not help Rice. Tulane is in the worst shape in the conference, even though coach Bob Toledo has had three seasons of recruiting to rebuild the program. Look for new starting QB Joe Kemp to try and win over the Green Wave fans early with some heroics.
The rebuilding process with June Jones at SMU enters year two with a lot of young players having earned experience quickly in the new scheme last year. Look for talented WR's Emmanuel Sanders and Aldrick Robinson to give opposing defense fits this year as the process continues. UTEP needs to find a defense under Mike Price or else the coach will quickly be headed out of town after three straight losing seasons. The Miners do have a great quarterback in Trevor Vittatoe, but he'll need to score in bunches to overcome the defense.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
TEAM CONFERENCE OVERALL
EAST
Southern Miss 7-1 9-3
East Carolina 6-2 8-4
Memphis 4-4 6-6
UCF 4-4 6-6
Mashall 3-5 4-8
UAB 2-6 3-9
WEST
Houston 8-0 10-2
Tulsa 6-2 8-4
UTEP 3-5 5-7
SMU 2-6 4-8
Rice 2-6 2-10
Tulane 1-7 3-9
PRESEASON ALL-CONFERENCE
OFFENSE
QB Case Keenum Houston
RB Damion Fletcher Southern Miss
RB Bryce Beall Houston
WR DeAndre Brown Southern Miss
WR Damaris Thomas Tulsa
TE Jeffrey Anderson UAB
OL Sean Allen East Carolina
OL C.J. Wood Marshall
OL Calvin Wilson Southern Miss
OL Ryan Tillman Marshall
OL Carl Bennett Houston
DEFENSE
DL C.J. Wilson East Carolina
DL Albert McClellan Marshall
DL Jay Ross East Carolina
DL Anthony Gray Southern Miss
LB Greg Jackson Memphis
LB Mike Bryan Tulsa
LB Nick Johnson East Carolina
DB Van Eskridge East Carolina
DB Andrew Sendejo Rice
DB Brandon Brinkley Houston
DB James Lockett Tulsa
SPECIAL TEAMS
K Chris Ratanamorn Marhsall
P Ross Thevenot Tulane
KR/PR D.A. Griffin Memphis
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FINAL THOUGHTS
So while there are promising signs that these three conferences will continue to break into the BCS year in and year out, they still want a guaranteed piece of the pie. The only way that will happen is if the leagues get deeper overall and have more consistent national caliber programs emerge. It's a tall order, but with good coaches in the rebuilding locations right now, the unthinkable may just happen. The BCS may come to the negotiating table in 2012-2013. Look for some competitve battles at least among the better teams in these conference, as the likes of Boise state, Utah, and Tulsa reload for another run. Join us Wednesday for a look at the wild Big XII conference.
WAC
THE CONTENDERS
Boise State Broncos
The most successful program of the decade is actually not the USC Trojans but these Boise State Broncos. Of course the competition in the WAC is a bit lighter, but Boise State continues to prove themselves on the big stage, and being passed over by the BCS was a real shame in 2008. Coach Petersen has a fair amount of talent coming into Boise, but there are a lot of holes to fill this year that the usual undefeated season might be asking too much. The offensive line needs completely rebuilt, which will not help QB Kellen Moore, who has little speed to escape a rush. The defensive backfield will be solid and should keep the Broncos in the tougher games on the schedule. The schedule is the toughest part, with a home game against Oregon to start off when Boise State needs time to develop their talent. The BCS remains the goal though.
Nevada Wolfpack
It is very rare for a coach to stay at a program like Nevada for a quarter-century, but Chris Ault has done just that. The Wolfpack almost got the big dog down last year to ruin Boise State's undefeated season, and there's no reason this team cannot compete again in 2009. the defense is nothing special, but the line will probably continue to stop most rushing attacks in conference. The offense is what has fans excited with dual-threat QB Colin Kaepernick being a perfect fit for the pistol offense. As long as Nevada can get enough of a running game going to rest the defense and prevent shootouts, there is a good chance the game in Boise will be for a conference championship. Look for early games at Notre Dame and against Missouri to be chances at national recognition for a non-Boise WAC program.
Louisiana Tech
Now this should be a fun team to watch in the 2009 WAC title chase. For the first time in a few years, Boise State will have more than one primary threat to their title defense thanks to Tech joining the chase. The Bulldogs return every single starting lineman on both sides of the ball, and these lines were the primary pushing force behind a solid eight win campaign last year. Tech will have their work cut out for them on the road, with games at Auburn, Nevada, LSU, and Fresno State. Despite the rough schedule, Tech has enough talent on offense such as WR Philip Livas and RB Daniel Porter to make up for the weak defensive backfield. Tech could buckle under the schedule or they could rise to the occasion, and 8-4 with this schedule will be a massive success for this program. a WAC title would be a bigger coup.
ALL THE REST
San Jose State was decimated by injuries and struggled with inexperience in 2008 to close the deal for a bowl berth, but the Spartans now have more than they've had in five seasons. Considering USC will be looking ahead to the Ohio State roadtrip, look for San Jose State to make a huge statement by sticking with USC into the second half and taking confidence from that performance to a successful season. Fresno State continues to fail to lve up to potential, and this season is critical for Pat Hill to keep his job at the helm. If Fresno State is to make any noise, look for three wins in September against a tough slate including Wisconsin and Cincinnati on the road and Boise State at home. Hawaii should squeak into the middle class of the conference based on experience alone, but there's still a lot of rebuilding to do in the Pacific. Still, the Warriors are incredibly tough at home and could surprise LTU or Boise State out there.
The bottom three in the conference are in dire straits for 2009. On the bright side, New Mexico State and Utah State each welcome in quality new coaches who will be looking to turn these programs around quickly if they want to advance in their coaching careers. At least the new coaches there can bring a new attitude, while Idaho has been as bad in the decade as Boise State has been good. There's really no hope for the Vandals to come out of it anytime soon, so do not expect much from this team in 2009.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
TEAM CONFERENCE OVERALL
Boise State 7-1 10-2
Nevada 7-1 9-3
Louisiana Tech 7-1 8-4
Fresno State 4-4 6-6
Hawaii 4-4 6-6
san Jose State 4-4 5-7
New Mexico State 2-6 3-9
Utah State 1-7 2-10
Idaho 0-8 0-12
PRESEASON ALL-CONFERENCE
OFFENSE
QB Colin Kaepernick Nevada
RB Ryan Matthews Fresno State
RB Vai Taua Nevada
WR Philip Livas Louisiana Tech
WR Kevin Jurovich San Jose State
TE Kyle Efaw Boise State
OL Mike Gallett Nevada
OL Rob McGill Louisiana Tech
OL John Estes Hawaii
OL Lon Roberts Louisiana Tech
OL Andrew Jackson Fresno State
DEFENSE
DL Ryan Winterswyk Boise State
DL Kevin Basped Nevada
DL D'Anthony Smith Louisiana Tech
DL John Fonoti Hawaii
LB Ben Jacobs Fresno State
LB Brashton Satele Hawaii
LB Justin Cole San Jose State
DB Kyle Wilson Boise State
DB Jeron Johnson Boise State
DB Deon Young Louisiana Tech
DB Davon House New Mexico State
SPECIAL TEAMS
K Kyle Brotzman Boise State
P Robert Malone Fresno State
KR/PR Philip Livas Louisiana Tech
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MOUNTAIN WEST
THE CONTENDERS
BYU Cougars
BYU was poised for a run to the BCS in 2008, yet faltering in games at TCU and Utah forced the Cougars to watch the other two perennial powers in the conference enjoy high-profile bowl games. This season there are a handful of holes to fill on the offensive line and in the defensive secondary, but overall, this season has as much promise as 2008. In fact, getting three of the toughest games of the season in Provo could make all the difference this time around. QB Max Hall comes back to lead the prolific passing offense, which will be sorely tested in a neutral-site opener against Oklahoma. If the Cougars could pull that upset, there's nothing that would stop the Cougars from the national championship chance the conference so desperately wants. The key to success this season will be developing the raw talent in the defensive backfield to be better against opposing passing games. If this happens, a conference title will be in the works.
TCU Horned Frogs
The Horned Frogs just keep on trucking as the best program in the MWC, despite being outshined by Utah's two BCS appearances and wins and BYU's history. Although coach Gary Patterson has more holes to fill this year than the other two conference powers, the program is better at reloading because of better recruiting than their competitors. The defense will be the star feature as usual, led by all-american lineman Jerry Hughes and cornerbacks Rafael Priest and Nick Sanders. While TCU may look like a program set for greatness in 2010, there are a lot of seniors who do not want to lose this opportunity at the BCS. The schedule is fairly forgiving, and the home game against BYU could be for all the conference and BCS marbles if TCU survives Virginia and Clemson in September. Look for a surprising season out of the Horned Frogs and perhaps even an overdue BCS appearance.
Utah Utes
Utah needed a miracle missed kick from TCU and a drive down the field for the ages to make the BCS, but the Utes again made the most of the opportunity by throttling Alabama for their second straight BCS win. Utah is a program that really seems to come together for a big season every three or four years, and coach Wittingham has a lot of holes to fill to rebuild the Utes back to the BCS. Nevertheless, the early reports of Utah's demise are too far-fetched, as this team has more than enough returning experience to stay competitive. If Utah can figure out whether Terrance Cain or Corbin Louks is better-suited to running the offense before the conference opener in October at Colorado State, Utah could be a factor in the race in late November.
ALL THE REST
Air Force is in the sweet spot for a service academy school, being competitive every year in a legitimately tough conference. If the Falcons improve on defense, the offense is more than strong enough to talk about improving to double-digit wins and giving the big three a true run for their money in 2009. Colorado State surprised everyone with seven wins and a bowl appearance last year, but there's still a lot of growth and recruiting to be done on the defensive side to make the Rams join the conference elite. Look for the veteran offensive line to drive Colorado State through a few successful shootouts in conference play to return to a bowl game. New Mexico may be a couple of years and recruiting classes away from true competitiveness, but new coach Mike Locksley turned around Illinois and he will turn around NMU. Look for the Lobos to steal a game or two that they really should not with a defense full of effort-players. There's potential for this group to make their way into the conference elite in the next three years, which would strengthen the case for the MWC to become a full-fledged BCS member.
The bottom third of the conference still has a lot of work to do, but there are signs of hope. San Diego State continues to struggle despite having California recruiting grounds and good coaching staffs. However, look for Brady Hoke, who turned around Ball State last year, to take San Diego State to similar places in a few seasons. UNLV finally broke through to five wins last year, but the Rebels were still statistically among the worst in the conference in most categories. Look for another season towards four or five wins, but Mike Sanford may be wearing out his welcome if the program does not continue some upward momentum from 2008. Wyoming also welcomes a new coaching staff and a spread offense attack which will hopefully turn around the most moribund of college football offenses the past few years. Look for the Cowboys to surprise a team or two, but nothing more at this point.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
TEAM CONFERENCE OVERALL
TCU 7-1 11-1
BYU 7-1 10-2
Utah 6-2 9-3
Air Force 4-4 7-5
Colorado State 4-4 6-6
New Mexico 3-5 5-7
UNLV 2-6 3-9
San Diego State 2-6 5-7
Wyoming 1-7 2-10
PRESEASON ALL-CONFERENCE
OFFENSE
QB Max Hall BYU
RB Harvey Unga BYU
RB Asher Clark Air Force
WR Ryan Wolfe UNLV
WR Rashaun Greer Colorado State
TE Dennis Pitta BYU
OL Zane Beadles Utah
OL Matt Reynolds BYU
OL Erik Cook New Mexico
OL Zane Taylor Utah
OL Nick Charles Air Force
DEFENSE
DL Jerry Hughes TCU
DL Jan Jorgensen BYU
DL John Fletcher Wyoming
DL Koa Misi Utah
LB Stevenson Sylvester Utah
LB Mike Wright Utah
LB Daryl Washington TCU
DB Chris Thomas Air Force
DB Rafael Priest TCU
DB Tashaun Gipson Wyoming
DB Nick Sanders TCU
SPECIAL TEAMS
K Ross Evans TCU
P Ian Clark New Mexico
KR/PR David Reed Utah
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CONFERENCE USA
THE CONTENDERS
East Carolina Pirates
Last year around this time I made the bold prediction that East Carolina would shock the world, go undefeated, and make the BCS. Well after upsets against West Virginia and Virginia Tech that theory looked good, but it fell apart in three straight losses. However, ECU is the class of the conference and recovered for a conference championship. The best news for Pirates fans is that ECU should be even better this year. QB Patrick Pinkney will have tons of talent on the line to protect him and at wideout to throw to, so look for an more wide open offense. The defense has quality guys all over, but the corps are very thin and could fall apart if any injuries happen. Getting East division rivals Southern Miss and UCF at home this season should make the road to the conference championship smooth.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Coach Larry Fedora brought a little bit of Oklahoma State with him and it started to pay off in five straight wins to end the 2008 season. Look for the offense to continue to exploit the weak defenses of the conference with the spread attack, led by QB Austin Davis and WR DeAndre Brown. On the defensive front, the Golden Eagles have a lot of growing to do, yet should still be one of the better units in the league. If the defense steps up like they did in the back half of 2008, there's no doubt that Southern Miss can roll into East Carolina on the final week of the season and steal the division title. Bowl eligibility should be a no-brainer for this team though.
Houston Cougars
Like Southern Miss, Houston came together at the back half of 2008 to become a top contender coming into this season. All the underclassmen young guns on offense return for another season, led by superstar-in-the-making QB Case Keenum and RB Bryce Beall. Although the Cougars were one of the most prolific offenses in the country last season, the one thing that could hold them back is rebuilding the offensive line. On the defense, the line also needs reworking to keep a solid pass rush going. Watch for a lot of shootouts with this talented offense and the mediocre defense, but Houston should survive most shootouts this campaign. If Houston steals one of the September games against Oklahoma State or Texas Tech, watch out for some serious national attention.
Tulsa Hurricane
Despite being a heavy favorite in the past two conference championship games, Tulsa has fallen short each time to better rushing attacks and defenses. Coach Todd Graham wants to finally take the next step, but the defense will have to improve considerably over the past efforts. If the best defense is a good offense, then Tulsa has that down pat with a spread offense that has befuddled the weak defenses in Conference USA. Although a new quarterback will take the reins, the offensive line and slew of wide receivers will cover up any weaknesses on that side of the ball. If the defensive linemen can create a legitimate pass rush this season, the Hurricane will have a chance to knock off Houston at home in November and go on to a third consecutive conference championship game.
ALL THE REST
Marshall has been a huge underachiever in the Mark Snyder era, but 2009 should be the year the Thundering Herd finally puts together a bowl berth and a decent season. Expect Marshall to continue to be one of the better ball-control offenses as long as the talented runners get some hint of a threat from the passing game. It may seem like a broken record already, but Memphis is another team that will compete for a division title if the defense shows any semblence of improvement. At least for Memphis, they have brought in tons of transfer talent from other schools, nabbing 7 fairly good players who will be starters for Memphis. UAB will be better after returning all starters on offense, but the defense is in shambles and needs to replace people on top of that. The Blazers have tough road games out of conference, so bowl eligibility might be a pipe dream this year.
Central Florida always seems to be on a two-yeasr cycle of terrible and good, following the 2007 conference championship with only four wins last year. The defense will be one of the stronger units in the league as long as the new backfield comes together quickly. UCF should be back to bowling in 2009. Rice has made great strides the past two years and stunned the world with 10 wins in 2008, but a new quarterback and a rebuilt offense will likely drop the Owls back to earth this year. The brutal schedule will not help Rice. Tulane is in the worst shape in the conference, even though coach Bob Toledo has had three seasons of recruiting to rebuild the program. Look for new starting QB Joe Kemp to try and win over the Green Wave fans early with some heroics.
The rebuilding process with June Jones at SMU enters year two with a lot of young players having earned experience quickly in the new scheme last year. Look for talented WR's Emmanuel Sanders and Aldrick Robinson to give opposing defense fits this year as the process continues. UTEP needs to find a defense under Mike Price or else the coach will quickly be headed out of town after three straight losing seasons. The Miners do have a great quarterback in Trevor Vittatoe, but he'll need to score in bunches to overcome the defense.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
TEAM CONFERENCE OVERALL
EAST
Southern Miss 7-1 9-3
East Carolina 6-2 8-4
Memphis 4-4 6-6
UCF 4-4 6-6
Mashall 3-5 4-8
UAB 2-6 3-9
WEST
Houston 8-0 10-2
Tulsa 6-2 8-4
UTEP 3-5 5-7
SMU 2-6 4-8
Rice 2-6 2-10
Tulane 1-7 3-9
PRESEASON ALL-CONFERENCE
OFFENSE
QB Case Keenum Houston
RB Damion Fletcher Southern Miss
RB Bryce Beall Houston
WR DeAndre Brown Southern Miss
WR Damaris Thomas Tulsa
TE Jeffrey Anderson UAB
OL Sean Allen East Carolina
OL C.J. Wood Marshall
OL Calvin Wilson Southern Miss
OL Ryan Tillman Marshall
OL Carl Bennett Houston
DEFENSE
DL C.J. Wilson East Carolina
DL Albert McClellan Marshall
DL Jay Ross East Carolina
DL Anthony Gray Southern Miss
LB Greg Jackson Memphis
LB Mike Bryan Tulsa
LB Nick Johnson East Carolina
DB Van Eskridge East Carolina
DB Andrew Sendejo Rice
DB Brandon Brinkley Houston
DB James Lockett Tulsa
SPECIAL TEAMS
K Chris Ratanamorn Marhsall
P Ross Thevenot Tulane
KR/PR D.A. Griffin Memphis
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FINAL THOUGHTS
So while there are promising signs that these three conferences will continue to break into the BCS year in and year out, they still want a guaranteed piece of the pie. The only way that will happen is if the leagues get deeper overall and have more consistent national caliber programs emerge. It's a tall order, but with good coaches in the rebuilding locations right now, the unthinkable may just happen. The BCS may come to the negotiating table in 2012-2013. Look for some competitve battles at least among the better teams in these conference, as the likes of Boise state, Utah, and Tulsa reload for another run. Join us Wednesday for a look at the wild Big XII conference.
Friday, August 14, 2009
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREVIEW 2009: PAC-10
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Seven Years of dominance for the Men of Troy. Seven years of national title aspirations and beating on the poor Big Ten in the Rose Bowl. USC hopes that like most powerhouses, 2009 is just a reloading season on the path to 8 consecutive league titles, but the competition will be fierce as usual to dethrone them. Although Arizona and Washington programs leave a bit to be desired as they rebound, there's at least 5-6 threats to knock off USC. If it happens twice this year, 2009 could finally be the year the little guys step up and take back the Pac-10.
THE CONTENDERS
USC Trojans
No matter how loaded or reloaded USC is every single season, there has always been one trip wire game against lesser competition in the conference, and this has stopped the Trojans from being a dynasty despite an 82-9 record since 2001. This year, the Trojans will deal with replacing all of the defensive linemen and linebackers, but this defense will certainly reload with Chris Galippo, Michael Morgan, and Malcolm Smith preparing to become stars at the linebacker corps. On offense the Trojans will be dominant behind an pro-caliber offensive line and star WR Damian Williams and RB Joe McKnight. The only question is open at quarterback, but either Aaron Corp or Matt Barkley should be fine with all the talent surrounding them in their first year. The schedule is brutal every other year, and 2009 is when the Trojans have to go to Ohio State, Notre Dame, Cal, and Oregon. There's enough talent to go undefeated as always, but it's hard to imagine USC without a lapse somewhere.
California Bears
It seems as though the Bears are always right there in the past few years as heri apparent to the USC dominance, but California never seems to come through in the clutch. However, the beginning of the new season brings more optimism again, most of it centered on Heisman candidate RB Javhid Best. While the new quarterback will likely be more important to Best's success than anyone else, don't sleep on backup RB Shane Vereen as he has a lot of ability. The defense will be led by the secondary, which will likely force a high number of interceptions against the wide open offenses of the Pac-10. The schedule starts with a couple winnable home games, but then the Bears will have to be ready for season-defining roadtrips to Minnesota and Oregon followed by USC. Assuming the roof has not caved in at that point, the final seven games are stretched over nine weeks and are not too bad, so look for California to charge hard at the end of the conference race.
Oregon Ducks
When Mike Belotti stepped out of the head coach's seat and moved to athletic director for new coach Chip Kelly, Oregon appeared to be left in good hands. However, Oregon should be wary of what has happened to the Wisconsin program under similar circumstances, and coach Kelly needs to avoid a letdown over time. Part of preventing this will be continuing to lead his spread-option attack to great numbers. The offense has enough at the skill positions to put up a ton of points, but the offensive line is a huge question mark going into the season. Additionally, the defense is inexperienced and could put Oregon in a lot of shootouts. Although there seems to be a lot of cards that need to fall correctly for the Ducks to win the conference, they are still better positioned than most others and have USC coming to Autzen on Halloween for a spooky showdown.
IN THE MIX
Oregon State Beavers
Oregon State has surprisingly been the second-best performing team in the conference the past three seasons, even better than the perception of Oregon and Cal as next-in-line. Coach Mike Riley has instilled a culture of confidence and winning attitudes among his players, which makes them highly likely to overcome all the new starters they will need in 2009. The defense was decimated by graduation, but riley has recruited well and the defensive backfield might be better by year's end than the 2008's version. The offense will include the star brothers Jacquizz and James Rogers, who will certainly take a load off whomever is behind center this season. The only catch is that the schedule is brutal with road games at USC, Oregon, and Cal. Considering OSU's recent struggles away from Corvallis, the Beavers will need to overcome those struggles to be competitive in 2009.
UCLA Bruins
Although coach Rick Neuheisel's first year back at his alma mater was a rough season, there were glimmers of hope in four victories. More importantly, the coaching staff has recruited two consecutive great classes of talent to rebuild the program again, and the results will start showing more clearly this season. The offense was an atrocity last year, but there is some optimism behind new freshman starting QB Kevin Prince. What will keep UCLA in games is their strong defense and special teams, again anchored by K Kai Forbath. Look for UCLA to ride this defense to a better-than-expected finish in the Pac-10, where the opposing defenses will not be too rough on the budding new offense.
Stanford Cardinal
Just like UCLA, Stanford is climbing back from the doldrums of the early part of this decade under the solid leadership and recruiting of Jim Harbaugh. Stanford returns 15 starters between the offense and the defense, and the talent is there to notch a couple more wins from last year's total of 5. In fact, with Oregon and Cal coming into Stanford's house this season, they could surprise one or both of those teams to move into the upper echelon of the division earlier than anyone might have hoped at the school more known for academics. Hopefully the pressure of getting win number 6 for bowl eligibility does not interfere with their rough November schedule of Oregon, USC, Cal, and Notre Dame, but that could also motivate them after failing in a similar situation in 2008.
ALL THE REST
Arizona Wildcats
The Wildcats finally found themselves in a bowl for the first time in 10 years in 2008, and the program is hoping to continue the upward climb this season. The offense must replace a bunch of linemen, which could make for some long afternoons for whomever takes over the quarterback reins. The defense is stacked with athletes better than any other team in the conference beyond USC, so there will be no excuse for this defense to not come together and be one of the best in the country this season. the key will be learning how to win the close games, which is an art the Wildcats and coach Stoops have not seemed to master quite yet.
Arizona State Sun Devils
While it seems like almost everyone is replacing their quarterback in the conference, the Sun Devils will have to learn to live without 4-year starter Rudy Carpenter. This will be made terribly difficult by the shaky offensive line and medicore skill position players that ASU has coming into this season. The defense is decent, but this team will not reach ten wins again until more talent and experience has been added to the roster.
Washington Huskies
Winless in 2008. On the bright side, the Huskies can go nowhere but up after finishing a shocking 0-12 last season. Plus, there's pro-caliber talent on both sides of the ball including star QB Jake Locker, but new coach Steve Sarkisian needs to get this talent to live up to potential to turn this program around. With out of conference dates against Notre Dame and LSU, Washington will not be bowling in 2009, but they can set the table for a triumphant return to competitive play in 2010.
Washington State Cougars
Well, at least Wazzu has the Apple Cup because that's about all the positive energy one can find in Pullman. The Cougars return quite a few starters, many from injury-riddled seasons, but there needs to be better talent brought in for the future or else the cellar will become more and more familiar to WSU. At least the final month's sechedule is easier than the first two months, which may allow some momentum to be carried into recruiting season. Yes, it is that bad in this program.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
TEAM CONFERENCE OVERALL
USC 8-1 11-1
California 7-2 10-2
Oregon State 6-3 8-4
Oregon 6-3 8-4
Stanford 5-4 6-6
Arizona 4-5 5-7
UCLA 4-5 6-6
Washington 3-6 4-8
Arizona State 2-7 4-8
Washington State 0-9 1-11
FINAL THOUGHTS
The Pac-10 has a lot of interesting storylines in 2009, with many of the teams learning to live with new quarterbacks. A few programs are clearly on the rebound, but there's only so much room at the top for true competitors to stay year-in and year-out. While UCLA, stanford, and even Washington may get more credit in the years to come, expect the same quarter of California and Oregon teams to shine again in 2009. If nothing else, there will be a lot of opportunities to gain more national respect as a conference with all the tough out-of-conference games fit into these 3 game non-conference schedules in the Pac-10. Some other conferences could certainly learn a thing or two from the Pac-10 scheduling people. Join us on Monday as we tackle the holy trinity of non-BCS conferences: the MWC, C-USA, and the WAC.
Seven Years of dominance for the Men of Troy. Seven years of national title aspirations and beating on the poor Big Ten in the Rose Bowl. USC hopes that like most powerhouses, 2009 is just a reloading season on the path to 8 consecutive league titles, but the competition will be fierce as usual to dethrone them. Although Arizona and Washington programs leave a bit to be desired as they rebound, there's at least 5-6 threats to knock off USC. If it happens twice this year, 2009 could finally be the year the little guys step up and take back the Pac-10.
THE CONTENDERS
USC Trojans
No matter how loaded or reloaded USC is every single season, there has always been one trip wire game against lesser competition in the conference, and this has stopped the Trojans from being a dynasty despite an 82-9 record since 2001. This year, the Trojans will deal with replacing all of the defensive linemen and linebackers, but this defense will certainly reload with Chris Galippo, Michael Morgan, and Malcolm Smith preparing to become stars at the linebacker corps. On offense the Trojans will be dominant behind an pro-caliber offensive line and star WR Damian Williams and RB Joe McKnight. The only question is open at quarterback, but either Aaron Corp or Matt Barkley should be fine with all the talent surrounding them in their first year. The schedule is brutal every other year, and 2009 is when the Trojans have to go to Ohio State, Notre Dame, Cal, and Oregon. There's enough talent to go undefeated as always, but it's hard to imagine USC without a lapse somewhere.
California Bears
It seems as though the Bears are always right there in the past few years as heri apparent to the USC dominance, but California never seems to come through in the clutch. However, the beginning of the new season brings more optimism again, most of it centered on Heisman candidate RB Javhid Best. While the new quarterback will likely be more important to Best's success than anyone else, don't sleep on backup RB Shane Vereen as he has a lot of ability. The defense will be led by the secondary, which will likely force a high number of interceptions against the wide open offenses of the Pac-10. The schedule starts with a couple winnable home games, but then the Bears will have to be ready for season-defining roadtrips to Minnesota and Oregon followed by USC. Assuming the roof has not caved in at that point, the final seven games are stretched over nine weeks and are not too bad, so look for California to charge hard at the end of the conference race.
Oregon Ducks
When Mike Belotti stepped out of the head coach's seat and moved to athletic director for new coach Chip Kelly, Oregon appeared to be left in good hands. However, Oregon should be wary of what has happened to the Wisconsin program under similar circumstances, and coach Kelly needs to avoid a letdown over time. Part of preventing this will be continuing to lead his spread-option attack to great numbers. The offense has enough at the skill positions to put up a ton of points, but the offensive line is a huge question mark going into the season. Additionally, the defense is inexperienced and could put Oregon in a lot of shootouts. Although there seems to be a lot of cards that need to fall correctly for the Ducks to win the conference, they are still better positioned than most others and have USC coming to Autzen on Halloween for a spooky showdown.
IN THE MIX
Oregon State Beavers
Oregon State has surprisingly been the second-best performing team in the conference the past three seasons, even better than the perception of Oregon and Cal as next-in-line. Coach Mike Riley has instilled a culture of confidence and winning attitudes among his players, which makes them highly likely to overcome all the new starters they will need in 2009. The defense was decimated by graduation, but riley has recruited well and the defensive backfield might be better by year's end than the 2008's version. The offense will include the star brothers Jacquizz and James Rogers, who will certainly take a load off whomever is behind center this season. The only catch is that the schedule is brutal with road games at USC, Oregon, and Cal. Considering OSU's recent struggles away from Corvallis, the Beavers will need to overcome those struggles to be competitive in 2009.
UCLA Bruins
Although coach Rick Neuheisel's first year back at his alma mater was a rough season, there were glimmers of hope in four victories. More importantly, the coaching staff has recruited two consecutive great classes of talent to rebuild the program again, and the results will start showing more clearly this season. The offense was an atrocity last year, but there is some optimism behind new freshman starting QB Kevin Prince. What will keep UCLA in games is their strong defense and special teams, again anchored by K Kai Forbath. Look for UCLA to ride this defense to a better-than-expected finish in the Pac-10, where the opposing defenses will not be too rough on the budding new offense.
Stanford Cardinal
Just like UCLA, Stanford is climbing back from the doldrums of the early part of this decade under the solid leadership and recruiting of Jim Harbaugh. Stanford returns 15 starters between the offense and the defense, and the talent is there to notch a couple more wins from last year's total of 5. In fact, with Oregon and Cal coming into Stanford's house this season, they could surprise one or both of those teams to move into the upper echelon of the division earlier than anyone might have hoped at the school more known for academics. Hopefully the pressure of getting win number 6 for bowl eligibility does not interfere with their rough November schedule of Oregon, USC, Cal, and Notre Dame, but that could also motivate them after failing in a similar situation in 2008.
ALL THE REST
Arizona Wildcats
The Wildcats finally found themselves in a bowl for the first time in 10 years in 2008, and the program is hoping to continue the upward climb this season. The offense must replace a bunch of linemen, which could make for some long afternoons for whomever takes over the quarterback reins. The defense is stacked with athletes better than any other team in the conference beyond USC, so there will be no excuse for this defense to not come together and be one of the best in the country this season. the key will be learning how to win the close games, which is an art the Wildcats and coach Stoops have not seemed to master quite yet.
Arizona State Sun Devils
While it seems like almost everyone is replacing their quarterback in the conference, the Sun Devils will have to learn to live without 4-year starter Rudy Carpenter. This will be made terribly difficult by the shaky offensive line and medicore skill position players that ASU has coming into this season. The defense is decent, but this team will not reach ten wins again until more talent and experience has been added to the roster.
Washington Huskies
Winless in 2008. On the bright side, the Huskies can go nowhere but up after finishing a shocking 0-12 last season. Plus, there's pro-caliber talent on both sides of the ball including star QB Jake Locker, but new coach Steve Sarkisian needs to get this talent to live up to potential to turn this program around. With out of conference dates against Notre Dame and LSU, Washington will not be bowling in 2009, but they can set the table for a triumphant return to competitive play in 2010.
Washington State Cougars
Well, at least Wazzu has the Apple Cup because that's about all the positive energy one can find in Pullman. The Cougars return quite a few starters, many from injury-riddled seasons, but there needs to be better talent brought in for the future or else the cellar will become more and more familiar to WSU. At least the final month's sechedule is easier than the first two months, which may allow some momentum to be carried into recruiting season. Yes, it is that bad in this program.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
TEAM CONFERENCE OVERALL
USC 8-1 11-1
California 7-2 10-2
Oregon State 6-3 8-4
Oregon 6-3 8-4
Stanford 5-4 6-6
Arizona 4-5 5-7
UCLA 4-5 6-6
Washington 3-6 4-8
Arizona State 2-7 4-8
Washington State 0-9 1-11
FINAL THOUGHTS
The Pac-10 has a lot of interesting storylines in 2009, with many of the teams learning to live with new quarterbacks. A few programs are clearly on the rebound, but there's only so much room at the top for true competitors to stay year-in and year-out. While UCLA, stanford, and even Washington may get more credit in the years to come, expect the same quarter of California and Oregon teams to shine again in 2009. If nothing else, there will be a lot of opportunities to gain more national respect as a conference with all the tough out-of-conference games fit into these 3 game non-conference schedules in the Pac-10. Some other conferences could certainly learn a thing or two from the Pac-10 scheduling people. Join us on Monday as we tackle the holy trinity of non-BCS conferences: the MWC, C-USA, and the WAC.
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREVIEW 2009: BIG EAST
Welcome to the BCS conference version of the parity case study. While the Big East has been open to attacks on the conference crown since the ACC departures, West Virginia has been a steady favorite and national title contender. Now in year two post-Rich Rodriguez, the Mountaineers have fallen back to earth and made this conference a full on battle between six teams. Although there may not be much national title attention paid to the conference, this is a BCS conference and the winner will find themselves on the biggest stage in January. So let's see who will take the Big East crown in 2009.
THE CONTENDERS
South Florida Bulls
Although the craziness of the 2007 season let this team rise to #2 in the nation in October, that set expectations too high in Tampa. South Florida has just as much or more talent as the rest of the conference, which is not much of a surprise with the rich Florida recruiting grounds for a quality coach like Jim Leavitt. The offense should be going for the long bomb a bit more this season in QB Matt Grothe's final season, and he has WR Jessie Hunter back for one more go. The defense is anchored by DE George Selvie, who will be a big first-round pick in the pros next year. The Bulls derailed in a tough road contest in October last year at Cincinnati, but the schedule is quite a bit nicer now with late games at Rutgers and UCONN the only real conference toughies in a 4 game road slate. This could finally be the year the Bulls break through to January.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Just like South Florida, Rutgers has been a program on the rise that either has hit a high mark plateau or is just pausing on the breakthrough to the BCS ceiling. The offense will need some new leadership pretty much everywhere, as the departures of the quarterback and the receivers will be tough. There are legitimate position battles even now three weeks out from the regular season for starting QB and RB, and leadership by committee is really not what Rutgers wants to do. The defense should be the strength of the team, holding almost as much returning talent as South Florida. Look for Rutgers to succeed if the defensive backfield forces more interceptions than thepast two seasons. Rutgers also has the easiest schedule in the league, and could take a big step towards a conference crown in the Labor Day opener at home against defending champ Cincinnati.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Surprise champions really should not be much of a surprise in this conference, but last year WVU was still a legitimate favorite and the Bearcats usurped them. Coach Brian Kelly will be happy that QB Tony Pike is starting the season uninjured this time around, and with WR Mardy Gilyard to throw to, watch out for explosive plays on offense. RB John Goebel should turn into a NFL prospect thanks to the distractions Pike and Gilyard will have for the linebackers of the Big East. The defense replaces 10 starters and will be the defining factor of whether Cincinnati is a new real powerhouse in the conference. With a wide-open league, powerhouses reload in these situations and Cincinnati has recruited just enough pro-caliber talent to perhaps get the job done. The schedule is not very kind with the opener at Rutgers and road games at South Florida and Pitt, but it could be overcome for a second straight title.
IN THE MIX
West Virginia Mountaineers
Oh how the mighty have fallen from grace, your 2009 West Virginia Mountaineers. However, Bill Stewart now has more guys who fit his more conservative, hard-nose play calling style and that should keep WVU in the mix for another Big East crown. The offense has a legitimate superstar in RB Noel Devine, but he will need some help from senior QB Jarrett Brown to see his full potential. The defense looks rock solid on paper, and could push the Mountaineers back up the Big East charts where the Morgantown fans are accustomed to being. The schedule is easy until November, when Cincinnati, Pitt, and Rutgers come calling, but the Mountaineers will win the conference if they take 2 of 3.
Pittsburgh Panthers
Pittsburgh finally showed some true signs of life in the Dave Wannstedt era by going 9-4 last year, losing the conference title like so many others in a late battle at Cincinnati. The offense no longer has LeSean McCoy, but a stable of blue-chip replacements are ready to step in and find their own pot of gold, including freshman Dion Lewis. The defense is very good and brings back most of the starters that kept Pitt in games last season. Look for the defensive line to be the best in the conference. The schedule all builds up to consecutive games at West Virginia and versus Cincinnati. The league title could very well be on the line at the most entertaining time for this pro champion city of 2009.
Connecticut Huskies
The Huskies went out and nabbed Akron offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead to revamp the offense and attack the conference with another spread attack. Now that West Virginia is not as prolific an offense as they used to be, UCONN could be poised to become the new juggernaut on that side of the ball. There's not a lot of star power, but Coach Randy Edsall instills his young men with a blue-collar sense that makes them relevant in this conference. The only problem is that Connecticut drew the worst conference schedule possible, with road games at Pitt, Cincinnati, and WVU. You cannot count the Huskies out yet though.
ALL THE REST
Louisville Cardinal
If it does not seem like a long time since this program was relevant, well it was only two years ago. Then coach Steve Kragthorpe took over and squandered all the Petrino talent while not really filling the shelves with much talent to replace them. There's just not much to be optimistic about with both lines hurting and a new quarterback at the helm.
Syracuse Orange
Two words for new coach Greg Maronne and the Orange fans: good luck. The Greg Robinson era is over and things could not be worse for the program. It honestly says something about your current state when one of the absolute best players on the team is the punter.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
TEAM CONFERENCE OVERALL
Rutgers 6-1 10-2
West Virginia 5-2 9-3
Cincinnati 5-2 8-4
South Florida 4-3 8-4
Pittsburgh 4-3 8-4
Connecticut 3-4 4-8
Louisville 1-6 3-9
Syracuse 0-7 2-10
FINAL THOUGHTS
Outside of Syracuse and Louisville, anybody could end up in the January spotlight this season. Will the defenses lead WVU and Pittsburgh to brawl for the title? Cna Cincinnati reload like a powerhouse, or will Rutgers or South Florida finally take the conference hanging out there for the taking? So many questions and nothing will likely be answered until late November. Friday we tackle the wild west and the Pac-10, and we'll see you then.
THE CONTENDERS
South Florida Bulls
Although the craziness of the 2007 season let this team rise to #2 in the nation in October, that set expectations too high in Tampa. South Florida has just as much or more talent as the rest of the conference, which is not much of a surprise with the rich Florida recruiting grounds for a quality coach like Jim Leavitt. The offense should be going for the long bomb a bit more this season in QB Matt Grothe's final season, and he has WR Jessie Hunter back for one more go. The defense is anchored by DE George Selvie, who will be a big first-round pick in the pros next year. The Bulls derailed in a tough road contest in October last year at Cincinnati, but the schedule is quite a bit nicer now with late games at Rutgers and UCONN the only real conference toughies in a 4 game road slate. This could finally be the year the Bulls break through to January.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Just like South Florida, Rutgers has been a program on the rise that either has hit a high mark plateau or is just pausing on the breakthrough to the BCS ceiling. The offense will need some new leadership pretty much everywhere, as the departures of the quarterback and the receivers will be tough. There are legitimate position battles even now three weeks out from the regular season for starting QB and RB, and leadership by committee is really not what Rutgers wants to do. The defense should be the strength of the team, holding almost as much returning talent as South Florida. Look for Rutgers to succeed if the defensive backfield forces more interceptions than thepast two seasons. Rutgers also has the easiest schedule in the league, and could take a big step towards a conference crown in the Labor Day opener at home against defending champ Cincinnati.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Surprise champions really should not be much of a surprise in this conference, but last year WVU was still a legitimate favorite and the Bearcats usurped them. Coach Brian Kelly will be happy that QB Tony Pike is starting the season uninjured this time around, and with WR Mardy Gilyard to throw to, watch out for explosive plays on offense. RB John Goebel should turn into a NFL prospect thanks to the distractions Pike and Gilyard will have for the linebackers of the Big East. The defense replaces 10 starters and will be the defining factor of whether Cincinnati is a new real powerhouse in the conference. With a wide-open league, powerhouses reload in these situations and Cincinnati has recruited just enough pro-caliber talent to perhaps get the job done. The schedule is not very kind with the opener at Rutgers and road games at South Florida and Pitt, but it could be overcome for a second straight title.
IN THE MIX
West Virginia Mountaineers
Oh how the mighty have fallen from grace, your 2009 West Virginia Mountaineers. However, Bill Stewart now has more guys who fit his more conservative, hard-nose play calling style and that should keep WVU in the mix for another Big East crown. The offense has a legitimate superstar in RB Noel Devine, but he will need some help from senior QB Jarrett Brown to see his full potential. The defense looks rock solid on paper, and could push the Mountaineers back up the Big East charts where the Morgantown fans are accustomed to being. The schedule is easy until November, when Cincinnati, Pitt, and Rutgers come calling, but the Mountaineers will win the conference if they take 2 of 3.
Pittsburgh Panthers
Pittsburgh finally showed some true signs of life in the Dave Wannstedt era by going 9-4 last year, losing the conference title like so many others in a late battle at Cincinnati. The offense no longer has LeSean McCoy, but a stable of blue-chip replacements are ready to step in and find their own pot of gold, including freshman Dion Lewis. The defense is very good and brings back most of the starters that kept Pitt in games last season. Look for the defensive line to be the best in the conference. The schedule all builds up to consecutive games at West Virginia and versus Cincinnati. The league title could very well be on the line at the most entertaining time for this pro champion city of 2009.
Connecticut Huskies
The Huskies went out and nabbed Akron offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead to revamp the offense and attack the conference with another spread attack. Now that West Virginia is not as prolific an offense as they used to be, UCONN could be poised to become the new juggernaut on that side of the ball. There's not a lot of star power, but Coach Randy Edsall instills his young men with a blue-collar sense that makes them relevant in this conference. The only problem is that Connecticut drew the worst conference schedule possible, with road games at Pitt, Cincinnati, and WVU. You cannot count the Huskies out yet though.
ALL THE REST
Louisville Cardinal
If it does not seem like a long time since this program was relevant, well it was only two years ago. Then coach Steve Kragthorpe took over and squandered all the Petrino talent while not really filling the shelves with much talent to replace them. There's just not much to be optimistic about with both lines hurting and a new quarterback at the helm.
Syracuse Orange
Two words for new coach Greg Maronne and the Orange fans: good luck. The Greg Robinson era is over and things could not be worse for the program. It honestly says something about your current state when one of the absolute best players on the team is the punter.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
TEAM CONFERENCE OVERALL
Rutgers 6-1 10-2
West Virginia 5-2 9-3
Cincinnati 5-2 8-4
South Florida 4-3 8-4
Pittsburgh 4-3 8-4
Connecticut 3-4 4-8
Louisville 1-6 3-9
Syracuse 0-7 2-10
FINAL THOUGHTS
Outside of Syracuse and Louisville, anybody could end up in the January spotlight this season. Will the defenses lead WVU and Pittsburgh to brawl for the title? Cna Cincinnati reload like a powerhouse, or will Rutgers or South Florida finally take the conference hanging out there for the taking? So many questions and nothing will likely be answered until late November. Friday we tackle the wild west and the Pac-10, and we'll see you then.
Monday, August 10, 2009
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREVIEW 2009: SUN BELT, INDEPENDENTS, MAC
(NOTE - The previews are here for 2009! The full articles include pre-season all conference players in every conference, but you'll have to go over to www.southerncollegesports.com to see those as they take up too much space and formatting in blog world. See you over there!)
Although many will write off the Division I-A Independents and both the Sun Belt and Mid-American Conferences, history shows that you never know where the non-BCS contenders will emerge. The college football is just as passionate even if there's not 100,000 people in the stands, so look for these conferences to try and make a statement of improvement this year. The likes of Troy, Central Michigan, Navy, and Notre Dame are not to be taken lightly in 2009. Of course never discount the chances of anyone else in these conferences, as Buffalo proved last season in storming to a surprise MAC title.
SUN BELT
THE CONTENDERS
Troy Trojans
Troy has dominated the Sun Belt the past 3 years, and as usual, the Trojans invite all comers to try and knock them off the top perch in 2009. Unfortunately for the contenders, the Trojans are absolutely loaded. Troy has landed big defensive recruits by playing on big stages, and this year is no different as the great linebacking tandem of Bear Woods and Boris Lee will test themselves at the Swamp in September. Don't be surprised if the Troy defense keeps the Trojans in the game long enough to set upset alerts off all over college football land. Assuming the offensive line can reload like last year, Troy will be very tough to stop. Look for WR Jerrel Jernigan to be a national-caliber star after September.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
ASU may need to win the conference just to reach bowl eligibility, as the Red Wolves have not shied away from a touch schedule including road games at Nebraska, Iowa, and Louisville. QB Corey Leonard leads the offense and should be a top performer in Sun Belt play considering the defenses he gets to play against. The key will be replacing four starters on the offensive line and getting the running game going with talented RB Reggie Arnold. The defense will not be helped by the dismissal of CB Paul Stephens, but the unit is not expected to carry the team. Every road game will be tough, but one has to believe getting Troy in September after a bye week will favor the Red Wolves. Then it will become a matter of holding onto their 1 game conference lead, which I do not think will happen.
Florida Atlantic Owls
FAU had an offense good enough to win the conference last season, but the defense that had served them well enough in 2007 failed miserably. Though eight new starters are coming on defense, one would have to assume this group will be better than the 2008 version. The offense is the story for FAU, all behind QB Rusty Smith. Smith will not be stopped with all of his receivers back and weak defenses opposing the Owls, but questions linger about whether he can keep the defense off the field enough to overcome the Troy juggernaut. The Owls have a rough stretch in November with a road game at Troy sandwiched between home dates with Arkansas State and Western Kentucky, but they could be 6-2 before then.
ALL THE REST
Florida International could sneak their way into the top echelon of the conference, but it still seems like coach Mario Cristobal's recruits are a year away from being there. If FIU competes, it will be because the offense overachieves again with most of the starters back, including QB Paul McCall. Western Kentucky will be a force in this conference, as proven by their highly superior recruiting class this offseason. However, the transition to FBS and conference play never comes easily, exspecially with a new quarterback, so expect WKU to take a couple years to take the conference by storm. Middle Tennessee State probably has the best chance to contend with the big three thanks to tons of veterans on both sides of the ball. The Blue Raiders need to improve at running the ball and special teams or else they will put themselves in holes all season.
As for the bottom of the conference, we have some familiar faces. North Texas dominated the Sun Belt only 4 years ago, but they have fallen into a rut the past couple years and need to improve significantly on defense to have a chance. UL-Lafayette and UL-Monroe did a better job of competing last year, as the Ragin' Cajuns finished all alone in second place last season. Still, both teams have huge holes to fill on offense and will need to have youngsters step up quickly. Look for these three teams familiar with the SBC cellar back there in 2009.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
TEAM CONFERENCE OVERALL
Troy 7-1 9-3
Florida Atlantic 6-2 7-5
Arkansas State 6-2 7-5
Middle Tennessee State 5-3 5-7
Florida International 4-4 5-7
Western Kentucky 3-5 4-8
Louisiana-Lafayette 3-5 4-8
Louisiana Monroe 2-6 3-9
North Texas 0-8 1-11
INDEPENDENTS
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Although Charlie Weis and Notre Dame have suffered from too high expectations the past two seasons, this year should be the year the program turns around if Weis will make a national title contender out of the Irish. The building blocks are in place on offense, as the running game should be much better with 5 linemen coming back with a lot of experience and a stable of 4 quality running backs. The defense has much more NFL quality talent in the secondary and linebacker core, so expect a much more aggressive defense than Weis's first four seasons. Although the defense will be solid, this team will sink or swim based on QB Jimmy Clausen and the offensive line protecting him long enough for him to make good decisions in his third season. The schedule is tougher in the first six games, and the key will be the USC game in the middle of the season. Notre Dame could steal that game from a rebuilding Trojan team, and that would almost certainly guarantee a BCS Bowl the fans are clamoring for.
Navy Midshipmen
Although this may be the most talented Navy team in the recent run of success for the service academy, the schedule is brutal enough to offset any gains in talent coach Ken Niumatalolo has made. The tricky thing about preparing for Navy the past half-decade has been the triple option rushing attack, and QB Ricky Dobbs will add a whole new dimension with a better passing arm than many of his predecessors. The defense is where this team will tick though, as Navy has legitimate FBC quality talent, especially in the linebacking core. While Ohio State is probably too talented to be caught off guard in week 1, every other team has to adjust to the triple option on defense and the 3-4 on offense in a single week, which is a challenge. Navy always shows a lot of effort, so don't expect the rough schedule to daunt them too much, and bowl eligibility will be a success even with this team.
Army Golden Knights
Welcome to the new promising era for the service academy that has seriously lagged behind in recent years: at least that's the message sent with the hiring of Cal Poly coach Rich Ellerson. Ellerson dominated statistically in FBS offenses last season, and his aggressive defensive playcalling will fit well with the talent Army can get in football. It may take a year or two to get going, but one should see some improvement this season as long as the quarterback situation sorts itself out. The defensive line is the best strength on the team, and Army should stick around in a lot of games if the line pushes around the weak offensive lines on the schedule (of which there are a lot). The future looks promising, but will the future be now?
PROJECTED STANDINGS
TEAM OVERALL
Notre Dame 9-3
Navy 6-6
Army 4-8
MAC
THE CONTENDERS
Central Michigan Chippewas
Central Michigan just continues to be the most recent dominant football factory in this conference, and even though the Chippewas fell short last season of a third consecutive conference title, look for the Chippewas to come back with a vengeance. CMU has a ton of returning starters back, including the best player in the league in QB Dan LeFevour. The defense has been awful the past three seasons, but there are 10 returning starters and hopefully the offense will not sputter and put much pressure on them. In any event, the defensive line is one of the best in the conference. The only thing that could stop this talented team is a brutal schedule, including 5 road games in the first seven and a road game at Western Michigan.
Western Michigan Broncos
The Broncos have struggled to take the next step in MAC play, despite having enough talent to compete for league titles for a few consecutive years. Last year Western Michigan had more talent than they have now, but there is plenty of experience in key spots to believe that WMU is again a favorite. The best athlete is QB Tim Hiller, who will make his new receivers look great in their first starting roles. The defense has a solid set of linebackers led by Mitch Zajac, but the key to getting the offense back on the field will be improvement in the secondary. It's hard to imagine replacing a couple of NFL-caliber defensive backs will allow the Bronco defense to improve, but transfer safety Doug Wiggins will help. The key will be beating CMU on the home field in October for a league title chance.
Northern Illinois Huskies
Coach Jerry Kill came within a few heartbreaks of turning a 2-10 season in 2007 to a bowl game last year. With another year of star talent in the wings and more experience growing in the ranks, the Huskies are set up for a title run in 2010. However, if there's one thing this unpredictable conference and college football has taught us, it's that sometime teams come to fruition much earlier than expected. The reason NIU is in the contender pile is because they have better offensive and defensive lines than their competitors from Michigan in the West, and this could make up for the deficiencies in skill position talent. Look for the defense to be the best shut-down defense towards the end of the year, which is right when rough back to back road games at Ohio and CMU will likely determine the season's fate.
Ohio Bobcats
Well there has to be a contender in the East, but nobody really knows who will get hot, overachieve, and come to Detroit for the championship game like Buffalo did last year. Ohio features one of the best coaches in the league in Frank Solich, one of the better quarterbacks in Boo Jackson, and a solid defense. While Ohio went 4-8 last season, there were a few heartbreakers where the experience will help them pull through this season. The best part is missing Central and Western Michigan and getting NIU at home for senior day. Look for the only problem to be developing good line play, which basically makes OU the exact opposite case study of Northern Illinois. However, line play came come together, and if it does, Ohio will win the division for the first time in three seasons.
ALL THE REST
The West division is a hard place to sink or swim, and the bottom three will definitely be looking forward to matchups outside the division in 2009. Ball State was the undefeated darling for much of last season, but a new head coach and a slew of new starters will make the program take a huge step back. Look for the Cardinals to show off a good running game in attempting to ball control their way back into the MAC title mix. Toledo actually has a team full of talent, but a new coaching regime comes in to replace the underachieving Tom Amastutz. It will be interesting to see if the Rockets live up to that potential or continue to have mental lapses. Eastern Michigan is the sole team in the division that is truly worse than most of the teams in the East, and new coach Ron English will have to bring some winner mentality from his days at Michigan to get this program turned around. Toledo has the best chance to break out and surprise in this bunch.
As mentioned above, the East division will be so wide-open and unpredictable, it could honestly be the most compelling storyline in college football even if the teams cannot win out of their own division. Akron features an unconventional spread offense and a 3-3-5 defense, but the Zips need to overcome thier underachieving ways in the weak East this year. Bowling Green should be a contender alongside Ohio, but the Falcons need to adjust to a new coach and play calling scheme. Buffalo is a defending champion, but it is hard to believe a new quarterback and an inexperienced defensive front will be so lucky again. Kent State is relatively inexperienced this season and could be rebuilding if things don't go well now with a new QB Giorgio Morgan. Miami was shockingly awful last season and lost a lot of the veterans that carried them to the 2007 division crown, and it's doubtful that new coach Mike Haywood can get things back on track this year. Temple could finish the turnaround from purgatory and get to a winning record, as they have more talent than the program has possibly ever had. It's going to be a wild one.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
TEAM CONFERENCE OVERALL
EAST
Ohio 5-3 7-5
Bowling Green 4-4 5-7
Akron 4-4 5-7
Temple 4-4 5-7
Miami 3-5 3-9
Buffalo 2-6 3-9
Kent State 1-7 2-10
WEST
Western Michigan 7-1 9-3
Central Michigan 7-1 8-4
Northern Illinois 6-2 9-3
Toledo 5-3 6-6
Ball State 3-5 6-6
Eastern Michigan 1-7 1-11
FINAL THOUGHTS
So with that, we close our first preview article for the 2009 season. While everyone will be trying to knock off Troy in the Sun Belt, the MAC will be a story of Central Michigan trying to regain their perch at the top. While these conferences may struggle early on, don't ignore the hotly contested conferences races, as they will be two of the best. The service academies will be closer to each other than ever before, but bowl eligibility will be a problem for both. Notre Dame will be in the serious mix for a BCS bowl game again, and that is something to truly look forward to. Stay with SCS as we continue to make our way through the conferences each Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the next three weeks.
Although many will write off the Division I-A Independents and both the Sun Belt and Mid-American Conferences, history shows that you never know where the non-BCS contenders will emerge. The college football is just as passionate even if there's not 100,000 people in the stands, so look for these conferences to try and make a statement of improvement this year. The likes of Troy, Central Michigan, Navy, and Notre Dame are not to be taken lightly in 2009. Of course never discount the chances of anyone else in these conferences, as Buffalo proved last season in storming to a surprise MAC title.
SUN BELT
THE CONTENDERS
Troy Trojans
Troy has dominated the Sun Belt the past 3 years, and as usual, the Trojans invite all comers to try and knock them off the top perch in 2009. Unfortunately for the contenders, the Trojans are absolutely loaded. Troy has landed big defensive recruits by playing on big stages, and this year is no different as the great linebacking tandem of Bear Woods and Boris Lee will test themselves at the Swamp in September. Don't be surprised if the Troy defense keeps the Trojans in the game long enough to set upset alerts off all over college football land. Assuming the offensive line can reload like last year, Troy will be very tough to stop. Look for WR Jerrel Jernigan to be a national-caliber star after September.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
ASU may need to win the conference just to reach bowl eligibility, as the Red Wolves have not shied away from a touch schedule including road games at Nebraska, Iowa, and Louisville. QB Corey Leonard leads the offense and should be a top performer in Sun Belt play considering the defenses he gets to play against. The key will be replacing four starters on the offensive line and getting the running game going with talented RB Reggie Arnold. The defense will not be helped by the dismissal of CB Paul Stephens, but the unit is not expected to carry the team. Every road game will be tough, but one has to believe getting Troy in September after a bye week will favor the Red Wolves. Then it will become a matter of holding onto their 1 game conference lead, which I do not think will happen.
Florida Atlantic Owls
FAU had an offense good enough to win the conference last season, but the defense that had served them well enough in 2007 failed miserably. Though eight new starters are coming on defense, one would have to assume this group will be better than the 2008 version. The offense is the story for FAU, all behind QB Rusty Smith. Smith will not be stopped with all of his receivers back and weak defenses opposing the Owls, but questions linger about whether he can keep the defense off the field enough to overcome the Troy juggernaut. The Owls have a rough stretch in November with a road game at Troy sandwiched between home dates with Arkansas State and Western Kentucky, but they could be 6-2 before then.
ALL THE REST
Florida International could sneak their way into the top echelon of the conference, but it still seems like coach Mario Cristobal's recruits are a year away from being there. If FIU competes, it will be because the offense overachieves again with most of the starters back, including QB Paul McCall. Western Kentucky will be a force in this conference, as proven by their highly superior recruiting class this offseason. However, the transition to FBS and conference play never comes easily, exspecially with a new quarterback, so expect WKU to take a couple years to take the conference by storm. Middle Tennessee State probably has the best chance to contend with the big three thanks to tons of veterans on both sides of the ball. The Blue Raiders need to improve at running the ball and special teams or else they will put themselves in holes all season.
As for the bottom of the conference, we have some familiar faces. North Texas dominated the Sun Belt only 4 years ago, but they have fallen into a rut the past couple years and need to improve significantly on defense to have a chance. UL-Lafayette and UL-Monroe did a better job of competing last year, as the Ragin' Cajuns finished all alone in second place last season. Still, both teams have huge holes to fill on offense and will need to have youngsters step up quickly. Look for these three teams familiar with the SBC cellar back there in 2009.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
TEAM CONFERENCE OVERALL
Troy 7-1 9-3
Florida Atlantic 6-2 7-5
Arkansas State 6-2 7-5
Middle Tennessee State 5-3 5-7
Florida International 4-4 5-7
Western Kentucky 3-5 4-8
Louisiana-Lafayette 3-5 4-8
Louisiana Monroe 2-6 3-9
North Texas 0-8 1-11
INDEPENDENTS
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Although Charlie Weis and Notre Dame have suffered from too high expectations the past two seasons, this year should be the year the program turns around if Weis will make a national title contender out of the Irish. The building blocks are in place on offense, as the running game should be much better with 5 linemen coming back with a lot of experience and a stable of 4 quality running backs. The defense has much more NFL quality talent in the secondary and linebacker core, so expect a much more aggressive defense than Weis's first four seasons. Although the defense will be solid, this team will sink or swim based on QB Jimmy Clausen and the offensive line protecting him long enough for him to make good decisions in his third season. The schedule is tougher in the first six games, and the key will be the USC game in the middle of the season. Notre Dame could steal that game from a rebuilding Trojan team, and that would almost certainly guarantee a BCS Bowl the fans are clamoring for.
Navy Midshipmen
Although this may be the most talented Navy team in the recent run of success for the service academy, the schedule is brutal enough to offset any gains in talent coach Ken Niumatalolo has made. The tricky thing about preparing for Navy the past half-decade has been the triple option rushing attack, and QB Ricky Dobbs will add a whole new dimension with a better passing arm than many of his predecessors. The defense is where this team will tick though, as Navy has legitimate FBC quality talent, especially in the linebacking core. While Ohio State is probably too talented to be caught off guard in week 1, every other team has to adjust to the triple option on defense and the 3-4 on offense in a single week, which is a challenge. Navy always shows a lot of effort, so don't expect the rough schedule to daunt them too much, and bowl eligibility will be a success even with this team.
Army Golden Knights
Welcome to the new promising era for the service academy that has seriously lagged behind in recent years: at least that's the message sent with the hiring of Cal Poly coach Rich Ellerson. Ellerson dominated statistically in FBS offenses last season, and his aggressive defensive playcalling will fit well with the talent Army can get in football. It may take a year or two to get going, but one should see some improvement this season as long as the quarterback situation sorts itself out. The defensive line is the best strength on the team, and Army should stick around in a lot of games if the line pushes around the weak offensive lines on the schedule (of which there are a lot). The future looks promising, but will the future be now?
PROJECTED STANDINGS
TEAM OVERALL
Notre Dame 9-3
Navy 6-6
Army 4-8
MAC
THE CONTENDERS
Central Michigan Chippewas
Central Michigan just continues to be the most recent dominant football factory in this conference, and even though the Chippewas fell short last season of a third consecutive conference title, look for the Chippewas to come back with a vengeance. CMU has a ton of returning starters back, including the best player in the league in QB Dan LeFevour. The defense has been awful the past three seasons, but there are 10 returning starters and hopefully the offense will not sputter and put much pressure on them. In any event, the defensive line is one of the best in the conference. The only thing that could stop this talented team is a brutal schedule, including 5 road games in the first seven and a road game at Western Michigan.
Western Michigan Broncos
The Broncos have struggled to take the next step in MAC play, despite having enough talent to compete for league titles for a few consecutive years. Last year Western Michigan had more talent than they have now, but there is plenty of experience in key spots to believe that WMU is again a favorite. The best athlete is QB Tim Hiller, who will make his new receivers look great in their first starting roles. The defense has a solid set of linebackers led by Mitch Zajac, but the key to getting the offense back on the field will be improvement in the secondary. It's hard to imagine replacing a couple of NFL-caliber defensive backs will allow the Bronco defense to improve, but transfer safety Doug Wiggins will help. The key will be beating CMU on the home field in October for a league title chance.
Northern Illinois Huskies
Coach Jerry Kill came within a few heartbreaks of turning a 2-10 season in 2007 to a bowl game last year. With another year of star talent in the wings and more experience growing in the ranks, the Huskies are set up for a title run in 2010. However, if there's one thing this unpredictable conference and college football has taught us, it's that sometime teams come to fruition much earlier than expected. The reason NIU is in the contender pile is because they have better offensive and defensive lines than their competitors from Michigan in the West, and this could make up for the deficiencies in skill position talent. Look for the defense to be the best shut-down defense towards the end of the year, which is right when rough back to back road games at Ohio and CMU will likely determine the season's fate.
Ohio Bobcats
Well there has to be a contender in the East, but nobody really knows who will get hot, overachieve, and come to Detroit for the championship game like Buffalo did last year. Ohio features one of the best coaches in the league in Frank Solich, one of the better quarterbacks in Boo Jackson, and a solid defense. While Ohio went 4-8 last season, there were a few heartbreakers where the experience will help them pull through this season. The best part is missing Central and Western Michigan and getting NIU at home for senior day. Look for the only problem to be developing good line play, which basically makes OU the exact opposite case study of Northern Illinois. However, line play came come together, and if it does, Ohio will win the division for the first time in three seasons.
ALL THE REST
The West division is a hard place to sink or swim, and the bottom three will definitely be looking forward to matchups outside the division in 2009. Ball State was the undefeated darling for much of last season, but a new head coach and a slew of new starters will make the program take a huge step back. Look for the Cardinals to show off a good running game in attempting to ball control their way back into the MAC title mix. Toledo actually has a team full of talent, but a new coaching regime comes in to replace the underachieving Tom Amastutz. It will be interesting to see if the Rockets live up to that potential or continue to have mental lapses. Eastern Michigan is the sole team in the division that is truly worse than most of the teams in the East, and new coach Ron English will have to bring some winner mentality from his days at Michigan to get this program turned around. Toledo has the best chance to break out and surprise in this bunch.
As mentioned above, the East division will be so wide-open and unpredictable, it could honestly be the most compelling storyline in college football even if the teams cannot win out of their own division. Akron features an unconventional spread offense and a 3-3-5 defense, but the Zips need to overcome thier underachieving ways in the weak East this year. Bowling Green should be a contender alongside Ohio, but the Falcons need to adjust to a new coach and play calling scheme. Buffalo is a defending champion, but it is hard to believe a new quarterback and an inexperienced defensive front will be so lucky again. Kent State is relatively inexperienced this season and could be rebuilding if things don't go well now with a new QB Giorgio Morgan. Miami was shockingly awful last season and lost a lot of the veterans that carried them to the 2007 division crown, and it's doubtful that new coach Mike Haywood can get things back on track this year. Temple could finish the turnaround from purgatory and get to a winning record, as they have more talent than the program has possibly ever had. It's going to be a wild one.
PROJECTED STANDINGS
TEAM CONFERENCE OVERALL
EAST
Ohio 5-3 7-5
Bowling Green 4-4 5-7
Akron 4-4 5-7
Temple 4-4 5-7
Miami 3-5 3-9
Buffalo 2-6 3-9
Kent State 1-7 2-10
WEST
Western Michigan 7-1 9-3
Central Michigan 7-1 8-4
Northern Illinois 6-2 9-3
Toledo 5-3 6-6
Ball State 3-5 6-6
Eastern Michigan 1-7 1-11
FINAL THOUGHTS
So with that, we close our first preview article for the 2009 season. While everyone will be trying to knock off Troy in the Sun Belt, the MAC will be a story of Central Michigan trying to regain their perch at the top. While these conferences may struggle early on, don't ignore the hotly contested conferences races, as they will be two of the best. The service academies will be closer to each other than ever before, but bowl eligibility will be a problem for both. Notre Dame will be in the serious mix for a BCS bowl game again, and that is something to truly look forward to. Stay with SCS as we continue to make our way through the conferences each Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the next three weeks.
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